Effect Of Long-term Variations Research Articles

Predictors of positive outcomes from 'Early Intervention in Psychosis': protocol for a national retrospective cohort study.

Psychotic disorders are severe and prevalent mental health conditions associated with long-term disability, reduced quality of life, and substantial economic costs. Early Intervention in Psychosis (EIP) services aim to provide timely and comprehensive treatment for psychotic disorders, and EIP service input is associated with improved outcomes. However, there is limited understanding of the specific components of EIP care that contribute to these improvements. There is significant nationwide variability in the commissioning and delivery of EIP, with individuals receiving different packages of components from different services. In this study, we seek to explore associations between EIP components and clinically significant outcomes, in order to understand the mechanisms underlying improved psychosis care. This national retrospective cohort study will utilize data from the 2019 National Clinical Audit of Psychosis (NCAP), examining the care received by 10,560 individuals treated by EIP services in England. Exposure data from the NCAP, capturing the components of care delivered by EIP services, will be linked with outcome data from routine NHS Digital datasets over a three-year follow-up period. This will be the first study to use this method to examine this population in England. The primary outcomes will be surrogate measures of relapse of psychosis (hospital admission and referral to community-based crisis intervention services). Secondary outcomes include duration of admissions, emergency hospital attendances, episodes of detention under the Mental Health Act, and all-cause mortality. We will use multilevel regression to examine associations between exposures and outcome events. We will handle missing data using appropriate imputation techniques. This study aims to provide valuable insights into the long-term effects of variations in EIP service delivery. The study involves a large, diverse cohort including individuals treated by every EIP service in England. While there are limitations inherent in the observational nature of the study, any associations identified will be of great relevance to clinicians, researchers, and policymakers seeking to optimize EIP care. The results will enable more targeted treatment planning, resource allocation, and potential innovations in EIP care, ultimately leading to improved prognoses for people experiencing psychosis.

THE ROLE OF TOURISM AND FDI IN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF EU11 COUNTRIES

Purpose - Tourism and FDI have contributed to a large extent to Central and Eastern European economies in recent decades. This paper investigates how successfully these two engines of growth have been stimulating the growth of these economies. Design/methodology/approach - Using a Pooled Mean Group estimation, this study investigates the short- and long-term effects of variations in the GDP shares of tourism and foreign investments on the economic growth rate. Findings - The results suggest that while tourism expansion is more effective in the short run, FDI has a significant positive impact on economic growth only in the long run. Originality - A new aspect of the present study is a comparison of the magnitude of the impacts of the GDP shares of international tourism and foreign investments on the economic growth rate in both the short and long run in the case of Central and Eastern Europe. Practical implications - Considering the economic structure of these countries, policy action plans for inclusive growth are suggested.

Weather, Climate, and Migration in the United States

Do people move as a result of temperature shocks? Documenting weather as a push factor for migration is crucial for informing policy related to climate change and adaptation. This paper studies the impacts of high-temperature days on out-migration from counties in the US. We find that outmigration responds to long-term variation in temperatures, but not to the short-term temperature variations that are commonly leveraged in the literature. We provide evidence consistent with the idea that the effect of long-term variation in temperature is driven by changes in expectations regarding future conditions, and specifically climate change. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Effect of Long-Term Variations in Wind Regime over Caspian Sea Region on the Evolution of Its Level in 1948–2017

The data of atmospheric reanalysis NCEP/NCAR over 1948–2017 (R-1) and NCEP/DOE over 1979–2017 (R-2) have been used to show that variations of the Caspian Sea level are closely correlated with the long-term variations in the field of surface wind in the sea region caused by the transformation of atmospheric circulation over Eurasia. Winds of the eastern and northern rhumbs have been shown to play the main role in variations of evaporation over the Caspian Sea. In the periods of level drop in the Caspian Sea (1948–1976 and 1996–2017), eastern winds dominate, bringing dry and warm air from Central Asia and thus contributing to an increase in water evaporation from the Caspian Sea. In the periods of level rise in the Caspian Sea (1977–1995), northern winds dominate, which cause a decrease in the rate of evaporation. Calculations of evaporation over the Caspian Sea water area using reanalysis data R-1 and R-2 fully confirm these conclusions. A close correlation has been shown to exist between evaporation and the level of the Caspian Sea. The coefficients of correlation between the nonstandardized increments of evaporation and level in the Caspian Sea are –0.86 and –0.75 by R-1 and R-2, respectively. Moreover, the contribution of evaporation to the current drop in the Caspian Sea level by data of improved reanalysis R-2 is greater than that by R-1, because the inflow of air masses from the nearby dry region of the Central Asia according to R-2 has been greater in the recent decade.

Combined effects of thermal conditions and food availability on thermal tolerance of the marine bivalve, Perna viridis

Organisms can mitigate the effects of long term variation in environmental conditions through acclimation, which involves changes in various physiological responses. To elucidate the possible effects of temperature and food concentrations on acclimation capacity, physiological responses of the mussel, Perna viridis, were measured after individuals were held for six weeks under varying temperatures and food availability. Warm-acclimated mussels experiencing higher food levels had significantly greater upper thermal limits than those maintained on lower food levels. In contrast, the upper thermal limits of cold-acclimated mussels were not affected by food levels. For warm-acclimated mussels, differences in upper thermal limits were likely due to rapid depletion of energy storage as predicted by Dynamic Energy Budget model simulations for P. viridis exposed to lower food levels. Clearance rates of cold-acclimated mussels were significantly lower than warm-acclimated mussels, regardless of food availability. The impacts of lower food acquisition on energy storage, however, could be compensated by lower metabolic rates of the cold-acclimated mussels. The availability and the ability to acquire food are not, therefore, the main drivers differentiating between the upper thermal tolerances of cold- and warm-acclimated mussels, but these differences are driven by the past thermal history the mussels experienced. The temperature tolerance range of P. viridis showed a positive shift to tolerate higher temperatures after acclimation. Such flexibility in thermal tolerance implies P. viridis has high capacity to acclimate to novel environments, which will enhance its future success given its commercial importance as an aquaculture species.

Self-reported onset of puberty and subsequent semen quality and reproductive hormones in healthy young men.

Is there an association between pubertal onset and subsequent reproductive health in young men? Self-reported later onset of puberty was associated with reduced semen quality and altered serum levels of reproductive hormones among 1068 healthy, young Danish men. The long-term effects of variations in the onset of male puberty on subsequent reproduction remain largely unstudied. In a cross-sectional study, young healthy Danish men were approached when they attended a compulsory medical examination to determine their fitness for military service from 2008 to 2012. A total of 1068 healthy, young Danish men (mean age 19 years) participated. They were asked to assess whether onset of penile and testicular growth, development of pubic hair and voice break occurred earlier, at the same time as or later than their peers. Their semen quality (semen volume, sperm concentration, total sperm count and percentages of motile and morphologically normal spermatozoa) and serum concentrations of sex hormones (LH, FSH, total testosterone, SHBG, inhibin B) and testicular size were determined. The response rate was 29%. Of the 1068 men who then participated, 652 answered the questions about penile growth and pubic hair development and were therefore included in the analysis. Self-reported later onset of puberty was associated with a 25% reduction in sperm concentration (95% CI -41%; -4%), a 40% reduction in total sperm count (-55%; -21%), a 1.6% age point reduction in morphological normal spermatozoa (-2.9; -0.3) and a 1.6 ml reduction in testicular size (-2.4 and -0.8 ml), after adjustment for confounders. Self-reported later onset of puberty was also associated with a 9% (3%; 15%) reduction in free testosterone and a 16% (2%; 31%) increase in FSH, after adjustment for confounders. Our study was cross-sectional and reverse causality cannot be ruled out. In addition, we cannot rule out the possibility that the men with late puberty onset had not yet fully matured although most were in Tanner stage 5. Approximately 15% of young Danish men have self-reported later onset of puberty than their peers. We found poorer testicular function in young men with a history of later pubertal development, suggesting that timing of pubertal onset may be a fundamental marker of male reproductive health. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that these men had not fully matured at the time of examination and therefore their semen quality may yet improve, which makes follow-up important. This work was supported by the Danish Council for Strategic Research, Program Commission on Health, Food and Welfare (project number 2101-08-0058), Rigshospitalet (grants 961506336 and R42-A1326), European Union, DEER (grant agreement no 212844), the Danish Ministry of Health and the Danish Environmental Protection Agency and Kirsten and Freddy Johansens Foundation (grant 95-103-72087). There are no competing interests.

Improvement of the trace metal composition of medium for nitrite-dependent anaerobic methane oxidation bacteria: Iron (II) and copper (II) make a difference

Nitrite-dependent anaerobic methane oxidation (n-damo) is a potential bioprocess for treating nitrogen-containing wastewater. This process uses methane, an inexpensive and nontoxic end-product of anaerobic digestion, as an external electron donor. However, the low turnover rate and slow growth rate of n-damo functional bacteria limit the practical application of this process. In the present study, the short- and long-term effects of variations in trace metal concentrations on n-damo bacteria were investigated, and the concentrations of trace metal elements of medium were improved. The results were subsequently verified by a group of long-term inoculations (90 days) and were applied in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) (84 days). The results indicated that iron (Fe(II)) and copper (Cu(II)) (20 and 10 μmol L−1, respectively) significantly stimulated the activity and the growth of n-damo bacteria, whereas other trace metal elements, including zinc (Zn), molybdenum (Mo), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), and nickel (Ni), had no significant effect on n-damo bacteria in the tested concentration ranges. Interestingly, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) showed that a large number of dense, large aggregates (10–50 μm) of n-damo bacteria were formed by cell adhesion in the SBR reactor after using the improved medium, and to our knowledge this is the first discovery of large aggregates of n-damo bacteria.

Effects of decadal changes in the hydrological regime of the middle reach of the Paraná River (Argentina) on fish densities

Changes in fish densities recorded over 14 years (1996–2009) were studied for effects of long-term variation of the hydrologic regime. We collected field data with an echo sounder in scour holes of minor channels draining an area of floodplain in the middle reach of the Parana River. Fish densities in 2000–2009 were significantly lower than in the previous decade. The decrease was associated with a marked reduction of water levels, flood magnitudes and connectivity of channels with the nearby floodplain lakes. This distortion of the flood pulse likely had an effect on the life history strategies of the fishes. The effects of damming in the upstream basin and other man-made perturbations are minor in the middle reach. However, the decadal alterations of regime are intimately linked to climate fluctuations in the Parana River basin during the past century. Tendencies of observed fish densities are similar to results reported in literature on the influence on fishes for similar long-term alterations of the flood regime in river flood plain systems.

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Nowadays, there is a growing emphasis on Inter-basin water transfer projects as costly activities with ambiguous effects on environment, society and economy. Since the concept of climate change was in its embryonic phase before 1990’s, the majority of these projects planned before that period have not considered the effect of long term variation of water resources. In all of these numerous operational and under-construction projects, an intelligent selection of the best water transmission protocol, can help the governments to optimize their expenditures on these projects ,and also can help water resources managers to face climate change effects wisely. In this paper as a case study, Dez to Qomrood inter-basin water transfer project is considered to evaluate the efficiency of three different protocols in long term. The effect of climate change has been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) in order to calculate the change of flow in the basin's area with different climate scenarios. After these calculation, a water allocation model has been used to evaluate which of these three water transmission protocols (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)) is the most efficient logic switch economically in a framework including both upstream and downstream stakeholders. As the final result, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol can supply more population especially with urban water for a fix expense and also is the most adapted protocol with future global change, at least in the first round of sustainability assessment.

The effect of long-term variation in sympathetic activity on testicular morphology in immature rats.

In order to investigate the effect of increased and decreased sympathetic activity on testicular development, immature male rats were injected with isoproterenol or 6-hydroxydopamine from birth up to 49 days of age. Isoproterenol treatment resulted in a marked Leydig cell hypertrophy but the development of the spermatogenic epithelium was unaffected compared to that in saline treated controls. 6-hydroxydopamine treatment in a dose inhibiting the development of the parotid gland did not influence testicular development.

The effects of daily ration on growth and smoltification in 0+ and 1+ Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) parr

The effects of long-term variations in feed ration were studied during two experiments on Atlantic salmon parr. In the first experiment, three duplicate groups of approximately 500 salmon parr were fed at rates of 100%, 66% or 33% of the manufacturer's recommendation from shortly after first feeding. Each group was exposed to a photoperiod regime which was expected to result in smoltification 9 months after first feeding. In the second experiment, three duplicate groups of 550 fish were fed 100%, 66% or 33% of the manufacturer's recommendation from first feeding and exposed to a simulated natural photoperiod, which was expected to result in smoltification 13 months after first feeding.In both experiments fish size increased with ration, with recruitment to the upper modal group (UMG) of the population also related to ration (85–96%, 64–88% and 28–42% UMG fish for the full, two-thirds and one-third ration groups respectively, recorded at the conclusion of each experiment). Throughout each experiment the full and two-thirds ration fish maintained similar whole body lipid concentrations, although lipid concentrations in the one-third ration fish were generally lower. At the conclusion of experiment 1, gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity in UMG fish fed full rations reached 9.5 μmol ADP hydrolysed mg−1 protein−1 h−1, whereas ATPase activities were lower in the other ration groups. In experiment 2, all groups had similar gill Na+, K+-ATPase activities at the conclusion of the experiment (6.4–9.3 μmol ADP hydrolysed mg−1 protein−1 h−1). Following 24 h seawater challenges, conducted during the parr–smolt transformation, UMG fish from the full and two-thirds groups of experiment 1 displayed high survival rates (100%) and low serum osmolalities (335 mOsm kg−1), with lower survival rates (75%) and higher serum osmolalities (370 mOsm kg−1) recorded in the one-third ration fish. In experiment 2 similar survival rates (100%) and serum osmolalities (350 mOsm kg−1) were found in all ration groups.It is concluded that under accelerated production regimes, feed restriction may result in underyearling Atlantic salmon smolts developing a poor hypo-osmoregulatory ability. Variations in ration significantly influence growth, although it is believed that growth is dependant on the maintenance of a specific lipid level in the body.

Ammonium and soluble amide-bound nitrogen in leaves of Brassica napus as related to glutamine synthetase activity and external N supply

Short and long term effects of variations in external N supply on the content of soluble N compounds and glutamine synthetase (GS) activity were investigated in leaves of vegetatively growing oilseed rape ( Brassica napus L., cv. Global). Only the chloroplastic isoform of GS had a detectable activity. Plants growing continuously for 5 weeks at elevated nitrogen levels had 3-fold higher levels of NH 4 + and soluble amides compared with plants growing at low levels of N supply. In contrast, GS activities were similar at the different levels of N supply. Addition of a pulse of nitrogen to plants of medium N status caused a rapid and large increase in NH 4 + and soluble amides within the leaves. Pulse addition of nitrogen also triggered a temporary increase in GS activity, thereby maintaining the concentration of NH 4 + below 14 μmol NH 4 +·g −1 leaf fresh weight (corresponding to 21 mM NH 4 + ammonium on tissue water basis). This level of NH 4 + was equal to the maximum level observed in leaves of plants growing permanently at elevated N supplies in spite of the fact that the latter plants received a higher total amount of nitrogen. It is concluded that tissue concentrations of NH 4 + and soluble amides in B. napus may vary considerably with external N supply, although accumulation of exceedingly high NH 4 + concentrations can be avoided by stimulation of GS activity.

The influence of operating conditions on the evaluation of biological marker compound distributions in petroleum geochemistry by gas chromatorgaphy and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry

The effects of the operating conditions for gas chromatoraphy and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (g.c./m.s.) on the observed distributions of biological marker compounds in petroleum are considered. Resolution and the accuracy and precision of quantification were investigated for components of geochemical significance. Methylsilicone stationary phases were generally suitable for aliphatic biomarker analysis, although some components co-eluted on these phases. The inclusion of ca. 5% phenyl groups into methylsilicone phases provided improved resolution of certain alkane biomarkers, and also allowed satisfactory analysis of classes of aromatic biomarker compounds. Vaporising and non-vaporising injection techniques in g.c./m.s. were compared for accuracy and reproducibility of relative component quantification. Cooled on-column injection wa found to be the most suitable technique in biomarker analysis. The effect of long-term variation in the operating conditions for the spectrometer on the reproducibility of quantification data was found to be at least as significant as the effect of the sample injection technique.

Effect of Long-term Variations on Talker Recognition by Averaged Speech Spectrum

Effect of Long-term Variations on Talker Recognition by Averaged Speech Spectrum