Long-term Economic Performance Research Articles

Effects of cultivar, planting density and rootstock on long-term economic performance of apple orchards in the Northeastern U.S.

An economic analysis of profitability using Net Present Value (NPV) was conducted using data from two long-term training system × rootstock field trials conducted in New York State from 2006 to 2016 (Dressel Farm in southeastern New York State and VandeWalle Farm in Western, New York State). We used trial data for the first 11 years and estimated values for years 12–20 using average data from the last 4 years of field data. The field trials compared four training systems with different planting densities (Slender Pyramid, 840 trees ha−1; Vertical Axis, 1282 trees ha−1; Slender Axis, 2244 trees ha−1; and Tall Spindle, 3262 trees ha−1) each evaluated with several rootstocks in an incomplete factorial treatment list and with two cultivars at each location. By the end of the trial (11 years) all combinations of planting density, rootstock and cultivar were profitable (NPV positive) at the VandeWalle site but at the Dressel site seven combinations of rootstock and planting density with ‘Fuji’ and two combinations with ‘Gala’ were not profitable. Projected profitability over 20 years using estimated yields and fruit quality for years 12–20 showed that all combinations would be profitable by year 20. Estimated 20-year NPV was greatest with the Tall Spindle system with the highest planting density compared to the other lower density systems. Economic performance was mostly driven by planting density, regardless of the rootstock selection. Among cultivars, ‘Honeycrisp’ had significantly higher profitability largely due to high fruit price). ‘Gala’ had intermediate profitability due to high yields and medium fruit price while ‘Fuji’ which had low fruit price had significantly lower profitability than ‘Gala’. Among rootstocks, there was a significant interaction with training system and cultivar, so the same rootstock was not the most profitable with every cultivar and system. With ‘Fuji’ the most profitable combination was on G.16 rootstock planted at the highest density, however, it was not significantly better than with G.11 or M.9. With ‘Gala’ at Dressel farm the most profitable combination was on G.11 in the Tall Spindle system (planted at the highest density) but it was not significantly better than with G.16, G.41, M.9 or B.9. With ‘Gala’ at VandeWalle farm the most profitable combination was on G.41 planted at the highest density but it was not significantly better than on G.11, G.16, M.9 or B.9. With ‘Honeycrisp’ the most profitable combination was on M.9 planted at the highest density but it was not significantly better than G.11, G.16, G.41 or B.9. A sensitivity analysis showed that among economic parameters affecting the long-term profitability of an orchard, fruit price and yield were vastly more important than other factors. Of intermediate importance were the discount rate and labor costs while of much lesser importance were tree costs and land costs.

AN ENTROPIC PERSPECTIVE ON BUSINESS RELOCATION IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

This article explores dynamic shifts in entropy, focusing on the entropic perspective of business relocation within the sustainable development framework. Emphasizing sustainable practices and long-term goals, the research employs deep interviewing to gain profound insights into Ukrainian businesses' perspectives on relocation challenges. The study examines the intricacies of moving through the prism of entropy. It comprehensively addresses multifaceted issues during relocation, highlighting the delicate balance between disruption and opportunities. Providing insights into adaptive strategies, the study aids scholars, policymakers, and businesses in navigating the uncertainties of global economic changes. It serves as a guiding beacon for strategic and successful relocation, offering practical insights based on real-life cases. Stakeholders can optimize the relocation process by leveraging the key features outlined in the article.The article, with its economic dimension, emerges as a vital resource for stakeholders aiming to streamline the relocation process. Through the outlined key features, businesses and policymakers can make well-informed decisions that not only align with sustainable development goals but also foster economic resilience and growth. Furthermore, the research carries substantial potential in exploring the post-relocation development of companies, drawing insights from the experiences of those who have already undergone relocation. By delving into the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of businesses' evolution post-relocation, the study can reveal patterns of resilience, innovation, and growth. Examining the post-relocation landscape provides an opportunity to assess the effectiveness of sustainable practices adopted during relocation and their impact on long-term economic performance. Leveraging the experiences of previously relocated enterprises offers practical insights into the challenges and opportunities in the post-relocation phase. In essence, the article not only optimizes the relocation process but also serves as a foundation for an exploration of post-relocation development, offering a roadmap for sustained economic resilience and growth.

Resilience to economic shrinking: reinterpreting the Asian economic miracle in a comparative perspective, 1964–2018

ABSTRACT The successful economic performance of Pacific Asia is often held as a source of inspiration for aspiring catching-up countries. Notwithstanding, recent literature suggests that a key to the understanding of successful long-term economic performance lies not only in the ability to generate economic growth, but in limiting incidences of economic shrinking. Such analyses to explain the Asian economic miracle are however in short supply. This study highlights the significance of economic shrinking in Asia in a comparative perspective to demonstrate how and why resilience to economic shrinking was a significant aspect of the successful development of the region. To approach the question of why some countries became more resilient than others we propose a social capability framework and apply it to a sample of 26 developing countries between 1964 and 2018. We construct a social capability index on which we develop a set of simple OLS regressions to estimate the impact of social capabilities on shrinking patterns. We demonstrate that poorly endowed countries do not lack the ability to generate growth, but their limited resilience prevents them from catching up.

Railroad infrastructure investment and economic performance in Portugal: An industry-specific analysis

This study addresses the crucial question of the macroeconomic impact of investing in railroad infrastructure in Portugal. The aim is to shed light on the immediate and long-term effects of such investments on economic output, employment, and private investment, specifically focusing on interindustry variations. We employ a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and utilize industry-level data to estimate elasticities and marginal products on these three economic indicators. Our findings reveal a compelling positive long-term spillover effect of these investments. Specifically, every €1 million in capital spending results in a €20.84 million increase in GDP, a €17.78 million boost in private investment, and 72 new net permanent jobs. However, these gains are not immediate, as only 14.5% of the output increase and 38.8% of the investment surge occur in the first year. In contrast, job creation is nearly instantaneous, with 93% of new jobs materializing within the first year. A short-term negative impact on the trade balance is expected as new capital goods are imported. Upon industry-level analysis, the most pronounced output increases are witnessed in the real estate, construction, and wholesale and retail trade industries. The most substantial net job creation occurs in the construction, professional services, and hospitality industries. This study enriches the empirical literature by uncovering industry-specific impacts and temporal macroeconomic effects of railroad infrastructure investments. This underscores their dual advantage in bolstering long-term economic performance and counteracting job losses during downturns, thus offering valuable public policy implications. Notably, these benefits are not evenly distributed across all industries, necessitating strategic sectoral planning and awareness of employment agencies to optimize spending programs and adapt to industry shifts.

A Study on the Impact on International Trade Post Liberalization in India

This research paper aims to examine the impact of liberalization on international business by analyzing how economic reforms and trade policy changes have shaped global business dynamics. On the verge of formulating foreign trade plans, India exhibited a surplus of imports over exports. The surge in imports primarily stemmed from accumulated demand during and after the war, a result of diverse controls and limitations. Similar to other emerging economies, India confronts inherent imbalances in its trade equilibrium. Starting from the inaugural economic plan, the revenue generated from India's exports has consistently fallen short of covering the expenses incurred on importing goods. India recognized the negative impact of its protectionist policies on long-term economic performance and began dismantling trade barriers to foster economic development. The paper investigates the effects of liberalization on trade flows, foreign investment, and market competition, highlighting both the benefits and challenges faced by countries in the post-liberalization era.

Social Spending and Long-term Economic Performance in the US

In this paper, we study the effects of social spending on long-term economic performance in the USA from 1949 to 2019 using vector auto-regressive models. We break down social spending into six programs to identify the economic effects of different social programs. Overall, social spending has a positive impact on private saving but an adverse effect on the unemployment rate. Due to its dominant distortionary impact on the labor market, social spending decreases GDP. However, these effects are minimal and are primarily short-term. The economic implications of the different social spending programs on the economy are similar but different in magnitude. The impact of social security and medical care spending on GDP is not significant. In turn, the adverse effects of veteran benefits and unemployment insurance on GDP are dominated by the short-term impact. In contrast, the effects of public assistance are more evenly distributed, and the adverse effects of other social assistance are exclusively long-term. Overall, the message is that although social spending adversely affects economic performance, these effects are small and primarily short-term. As such, the quest for increased social protection and improved social welfare does not seem to come at a significant economic cost. This attests to the sustainability of such policies.

Green financial investment and its influence on economic and environmental sustainability: does privatization matter?

Green financial investment and privatization have been widely used as policy tools to promote economic growth and efficiency in many countries. However, their effects on environmental sustainability have been less explored. This study utilizes autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) techniques to explore the effects of green financial investment and privatization on economic and environmental performance in China. Using data from 1995 to 2021, we analyze the impact of green financial investment and privatization on economic performance, measured by GDP per capita, and environmental performance, measured by CO2 emissions based on green finance and privatization theories. Our findings reveal that green financial investment has a beneficial effect on both economic and environmental performance. On the other hand, privatization has a positive impact on long-term economic performance, while also having negative consequences on environmental performance. These findings can inform evidence-based policies and strategies that promote both economic and environmental performance.

Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia

ABSTRACT This study explores the long-term economic performance in former Soviet republics of Central Asia for the last three decades. We look at sources of economic growth based on the extended version of the neoclassical growth model. Our key focus is to see whether human capital in the form of education and health inputs has an impact on growth rates in the region. Results show that over the entire period under study, on average, the growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP) were not remarkable, ranging from 1.4% for Kazakhstan and 0.51% for Tajikistan to −1.13% for the Kyrgyz Republic. Kazakhstan as a frontier economy of the region maintained better economic results in almost all indicators. Since 2000, TFP growth rates were notably stronger in Tajikistan compared to Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. However, a reduction in TFP in Tajikistan in the 1990s is attributed to the country’s dire civil war.

Green Practices in Mega Development Projects of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

This research aimed to investigate the green practices in the mega construction project of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Over recent years, there has been an increasing need for adopting and implementing more green and sustainable practices, leading to national and international sustainable and green environmental agendas. To address the issue, green project practices were considered an independent variable comprising green design, procurement, and construction. The dependent variables were environmental performance and economic performance. Primary data were collected from respondents working on the CPEC project. A representative sample of 276 respondents was used. The analysis was conducted using PLS-SEM. The results indicated that green design significantly influences economic performance, green procurement has a positive and significant effect on environmental performance, and green construction has a positive and significant impact on both environmental and economic and financial performance. The research showed that construction management at CPEC should adopt all facets of green project practices together, reducing negative environmental effects, increasing environmental benefits, and improving long-term economic performance in the area.

Role of institutions in promoting finance in emerging markets: A panel data analysis.

Differences in institutions have garnered much attention in recent years as one of the primary reasons for long-term economic performance, and a vast corpus of theoretical and empirical research demonstrates that financial development can have a substantial impact on economic and financial performance. In fast-growing emerging markets, the demand for financial services has considerably increased, which amplified the need for an efficient regulatory framework to deal with the sensitive nature of financial activities. Surprisingly, the existing literature on the impact of institutions and finance is focused on developed economies, while emerging markets are rarely focused on. Since emerging markets are becoming increasingly important as a result of the swift evolution of institutional and financial transformation, it is crucial to examine how the growth of financial markets reacts to institutional quality. This study investigates the role of institutions in promoting finance in emerging economies using the balanced panel dataset of 21 emerging market. Given the endogenous relationship between institutions and finance, the paper applies a two-stage least squares estimator to test the settler mortality hypothesis in this context. Aligned with theoretical intuition, the empirical result shows that settler mortality is a relevant instrument to institutions. Furthermore, the study performs robustness, using framework that deals with heterogeneity, and cross-section dependence. This empirical effort validates La Porta's Law and Finance Hypothesis in the context of emerging markets. The results of the study are found robust across the variety of alternative measures of institutions and finance, and standard error correction specifications. Therefore, the study offers useful insight into policy implications.

Effect of Public Debt on Poverty and Economic Growth of Nigeria (1981-2019)

The research in focus aimed to investigate the interplay between public debt, poverty, and economic growth in Nigeria during the period spanning from 1981 to 2019. The specific objective was to assess the relationship between these variables within the Nigerian context during this timeframe. To conduct this analysis, time series data were employed, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s annual statistical bulletin and World Bank development indicators. Initially, unit root tests, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philip Perron (PP) tests, were executed to establish the stationarity of the variables. These tests indicated that, in model one, all variables exhibited stationarity at order one (1) and order zero (0), whereas in model two, all variables were stationary at order one (1). Subsequently, the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) was employed to conduct short-run analysis and reveal the long-run coefficients in model one. In model two, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was utilized to investigate the data and assess the speed of adjustment from the short run to the long-run equilibrium state. The Granger causality test was also applied to determine causality relationships among the variables and to discern the direction of causality. The findings of this study indicate that external debt exhibited a negative impact in the short run but a positive impact in the long run on the Nigerian economy during the study period. Additionally, there was evidence of unidirectional causality between external debt and economic growth. Conversely, domestic debt exerted a negative influence on both short and long-term economic performance in Nigeria, with unidirectional causality established between domestic debt and economic growth. In light of these conclusions, the study recommends the implementation of effective debt management strategies by the government, especially concerning loan repayment. It is also suggested that loans acquired should be promptly channeled into viable investments aimed at enhancing the welfare of the populace and overall economic improvement.

Unravelling global future scenarios in the perspective of bioeconomy planning

The transition to bioeconomy and the broader low-fossil carbon economy requires long-term investments, whose environmental and economic performance will be affected by various future conditions. When assessing the consequences of such future investments, considering multiple background future scenarios instead of one single projection could greatly enhance the robustness of the decision support. Here, we systematically reviewed six internationally well-recognized global environmental scenario studies and one intelligence report, selected as highly relevant in terms of bioeconomy implications. The aim was to uncover the key variables and cause-effect relationships at play in these scenario studies. Through constructing causal loop diagrams for each reviewed study, we identified the variables with the greatest number of causal connections, the “cause” and “effect” variables, and the most reported cause-effect relationships across all studies. Our main findings are: (1) the top 5 causal variables are mitigation policies, technological progress, consumers’ awareness, economic growth and education level, while (2) the top 5 affected variables are climate change, materials use, food security, natural ecosystems, and social justice. Amongst the top 10 causal and affected variables (3), 68 connected pairs were identified with no disagreement in their causal relationship direction. The three most reported pairs were (4) mitigation policy → climate change, healthy and sustainable diet → land use, and population → materials use. Finally, (5) we highlighted that all the reviewed studies share a limited worldview where economy and cost-competitiveness is the dominant consideration defining the future sustainability.

The Effect of Market Competition and Institutional Regulation on Productivity: A Conceptual Modelling

Market competition and institutional regulation has been long regarded as a force that can improve productivity in the economy. Nevertheless, it is still unclear whether market competition and institutional regulation that governs the market can affect the performance of large construction firms (LCF) in Malaysia in terms of productivity. It is important because productivity performance is best known to measure long-term economic performance, improving competitiveness and living standards. In response, this paper aims to discuss and present a conceptual model that links the constructs of market competition, institutional regulation, and their interactions with firm-level construction productivity. In addition, this paper also evaluates methods to measure these variables and model their relationships based on appropriate theoretical and statistical considerations. It is expected that this study has both theoretical and practical implications. Therefore, it could help with theoretical propositions between constructs studied, which can be tested in the future. It is anticipated future research could help with theoretical and policy implications regarding market competition and institutional regulation that could improve LCF’s long-run productivity performance based on sustainable economic incentives.

The complex dynamic of growth: Fitness and the different patterns of economic activity in the medium and long terms

When analyzing countries’ medium- and long-term economic performance, it is important to study jointly the dynamic of growth and the industrial evolution that determines how the productive structure changes over time. In this paper, we use the Economic Fitness metric to describe the competitiveness of the countries' industrial structure, and classify economic episodes, with five-years windows, to establish how countries grow (i.e., above or below a trend, and with a dynamic or static industrial structure.) We show a complex growth dynamic using data covering two decades (1995–2014) for a large set of countries. This pattern indicates that the observed sequences of spells vary substantially even between countries within the same growth regime (low, medium, and high). Moreover, we find a robust statistical relationship between these spells and Economic Fitness with a multinomial econometric model. In particular, we show that economies with higher fitness are more resilient since episodes of below-average growth and the net disappearance of competitive firms are less likely to happen.

Experimental and numerical studies on the performance of horizontal U-type and spiral-coil-type ground heat exchangers considering economic aspects

The benefits of the use of horizontal U-type and spiral-coil-type ground heat exchangers (GHE) were investigated and compared based on heat transfer performance and economic analysis. The feasibility of a novel backfill material (controlled low-strength material) for a horizontal ground heat exchanger was also assessed. A numerical analysis model was developed to simulate the heat transfer in a horizontal ground source heat exchanger and calculate the annual heat exchange using 100 case studies with different GHE types, backfill materials, fluid velocities, and installation depths. A thermal response test was conducted using a spiral-coil GHE backfilled with sand and a controlled low-strength material to validate the numerical model. The economic feasibility of each case was investigated using analytical tools including the annual heat exchange, payback period, and internal rate of return. The results indicate that, although a spiral-coil-type GHE has 30% higher total initial installation costs, its high annual heat exchange (twice that of U-type) results in a shorter payback period (12.7 years compared with 8.4 years for U-type) and a higher internal rate of return (12.0% compared with 6.9% for U-type). The use of a controlled low-strength material leads to a slight increase in the initial investment; however, as expected, its high heat exchange capacity shows better long-term economic performance than a ground heat exchanger backfilled with normal soil.

Aging and Productivity in Latin America

This article considers how changes in Latin American countries’ age structures may affect their long-term economic performance through the impact on labor supply, dependency ratios, and productivity. It analyzes fourteen Latin American countries using population projections for 2015–2050 and considering three scenarios. The basic scenario assumes constant sex- and age-specific behavior concerning employment, while the other two scenarios imply increases in female activity rates and significant human capital accumulation. The results illustrate the heterogeneity of Latin American countries. In some of them, major productivity increases can only be achieved through substantial changes in the incorporation of women into the labor market, and especially in the educational level of the population as a whole. However, in most of the region’s countries, the demographic factor is still favorable and there is scope to exploit the demographic dividend.

Economic Growth and Productivity Performance in Central Asia.

This paper analyzes patterns of long-term economic performance in all five Central Asian countries. We first look at sources of economic growth based on a simple growth accounting exercise. Our findings show that under the period of study total factor productivity growth rates were modest ranging from 1.7% for Kazakhstan, 1.4% for Uzbekistan, and 0.8% for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to—0.4% for the Kyrgyz Republic. The second part of the paper is connected with exploring productivity level analysis across all Central Asian countries by decomposing differences in output per worker into differences in capital intensity and productivity. Results reflect different levels of productivity performance in the region compared with Japan and South Korea as frontier economies for the analysis.

CO-INTEGRATION BETWEEN CORRUPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH INVESTMENT CHANNELS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING THE ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH FOR THE TUNISIAN CASE

This study examines the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Tunisia from 1992 to 2018 by focusing on the role of the discretionary power and the distortion of the public spending. To explore the relationship between the variables of interest, the ARDL Bound testing co-integration approach of Pesaran and Shin (1999) was used. The empirical results showed that corruption negatively affects the long-term economic performance by suggesting that large-scale public investment is not necessarily desirable in an environment characterized by corruption as this leads to the waste of public funds. However, the estimation of an ECM model of short-term dynamics shows that corruption is associated with the increase of the real GDP per capita. Therefore, these results support the idea that corruption undermines long-term economic performance and call for institutional reforms to improve the quality of governance as a pre-condition for any broad-based economic growth.Keywords: Corruption, Economic Growth, Investment, Co-integration, ARDL, ECM.JEL Classifications : D73, O4, E22, C12, C15DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.10879

Imperatives for post COVID-19 recovery of Indonesia’s education, labor, and SME sectors

The article assesses the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Indonesian economy and the influence that repercussions from the pandemic have had on the country’s long-term development goals and objectives. The article used backcasting approach to link expected development objectives and targets with current state of social and economic conditions. Results demonstrated a gap between long-term and current economic performance, attributable largely to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and society. A drastic decline in aggregate demand due to contraction in household and corporate expenditure, investment, and exports sparked a surge in open unemployment and underemployment. While swift and wide-ranging government response helped to attenuate the impact of the crisis on the economy and vulnerable sections of society, COVID-19 pandemic impact compounded existing fundamental problems facing the Indonesian economy including de-industrialization, wide urban–rural, East–West, inter-regional digital divide; unemployment and underemployment; weak human resource development; low participation in global value chains; and low education effectiveness. Policy recommendations to nudge the economy and society back to its long-term development trajectory include initiatives to enhance emergency response program effectiveness and tackling structural problems. The initiatives include strengthening and widening the coverage of government programs that support business and society in education, labor and employment, and SME and trade. The thrust of the pathways stresses the need for accelerating the implementation of the national information highway and the ASEAN connectivity initiative. Achieving will support efforts to mainstream the adoption and deployment of digitalization in the economy, government, and transboundary trade.

Agency, new technological path creation and long waves of local economic growth in Oxfordshire

In this article it is argued that long-term economic growth can be secured by the continual re-invention of the technological and consequential economic bases of local economies. Starting from the perspective of evolutionary path dependence in the development histories of new technologies, the roles of innovators in the creation of new technological pathways are theorised. Historical case study evidence is then presented of the contributions of pioneering innovators to the ongoing long-term production and employment growth in the local economy of Oxfordshire over the last two centuries. Oxfordshire provides an empirical example of one of the more successful local economies in the UK. It is concluded that much of this success has been based on the activities of a small number of innovators who have used national and international knowledge networks to import cutting edge technologies of their time into the local economy in order to start world leading industries in the County. These have formed the bases of its long-term economic performance.