Long-term Economic Change Research Articles

CHARACTERISTICS OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION UNDER MARTIAL LAW

The article reveals the importance and public administration complexity in the context of martial law, considering the current challenges and needs of Ukraine. In the conditions of a military conflict, public administration has faced unprecedented challenges, including crisis management, decision-making efficiency, social protection, information policy and economic difficulties. The study focuses on the need to adapt the public administration system to the realities of war, including the development of flexible strategic plans, resources mobilization, humanitarian aid organization and management of information flows. Particular attention is paid to changes in the management of state structures, crisis management, social protection of the population, and addressing information and economic challenges. The analysis of the functioning of the public administration system under martial law has revealed key challenges facing Ukraine. These include security, resource, integration, and information challenges, as well as issues related to the psychological impact on personnel, demographic changes, long-term economic consequences, environmental changes, and changes in global and regional relations. This research is important for understanding and considering the specifics of public administration under martial law, ensuring effective work of state bodies, restoration and development of the state in the post-war period, and strengthening national security and stability. Keywords: martial law, public administration, public administration characteristics, adaptation.

The shifting landscape of the Italian left: Exploring its contemporary state

ABSTRACT This article asks, ‘What’s left of the Italian left?’ arguing that an answer to the question presupposes having the answer to four more specific questions, namely, what does the term ‘left’ mean? What parties belong to this category thus defined? What accounts for the parties’ electoral decline since the end of the cold war? What, if anything, can be done to revive their fortunes? I argue that the terms ‘left’ and ‘right’ describe a spatial metaphor having to do with attitudes to equality. The electoral difficulties of the parties belonging to this category over the past thirty years can be explained by reference to three interlinked processes of long-term economic, social and political change that help account for the electoral decline of mainstream parties of the left in Western democracies in general in recent decades. In the context of globalization, a revival of the fortunes of the left in Italy appears to lie in the direction of an embrace of a social democratic ideology combined with a renewed emphasis on the principal of internationalism.

Understanding resilience in ethnic tourism communities: the experiences of Miao villages in Hunan Province, China

Ethnic tourism is being advocated in China to assist regional development and poverty alleviation. However, the arrival of tourism developers who are largely external to local communities has led to changes in economic and governance arrangements at the local level. To understand how local communities are impacted and how they respond to and potentially recover from these changes, we examined Miao (Hmong) villages in Hunan Province, China. We consider how Chinese ethnic communities can simultaneously be vulnerable and yet still display resilience when they are exposed to tourism-induced structural changes that disempower them. We found that ethnic tourism created opportunities for knowledge sharing, which facilitated family businesses and skill enhancement. However, lack of local capital created dependence on external developers, and tourism increased the vulnerability of ethnic communities. Nevertheless, local people developed coping strategies to address the long-term economic and governance changes induced by tourism, despite also experiencing increasing disempowerment and vulnerability. We show that, even with top-down tourism governance models that are typically associated with the marginalization of local communities, everyday economic life was characterized by hybridity – simultaneous resilience and susceptibility, empowerment and disempowerment, and self-organization and dependency.

Chest circumference and structural and short-term changes: a study of the Italian military call-up registers from 1881 to 1909

ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to demonstrate the utility of chest circumference measurements as a proxy for the socioeconomic characteristics of past populations. Our analysis is based on over 80,000 military medical examinations relating to Friuli (north-eastern Italy), recorded from 1881 to 1909. Chest circumference can be used to describe changes in standard of living, but also seasonal variations in food intakes and physical activities. The findings show the way in which these measurements are highly sensitive not only to long-term economic changes but, above all, to short-term variations in some economic and social elements, like corn prices and occupations.

Prospects for Growth and Change: U.S. Metro Area Forecasts 2022–2032

Since February 2020, severe economic disruption, policy responses, and behavioral shifts have created an uncertain economic future at the global, national, state, and local levels. In the context of this uncertainty, private and governmental decisions need the best available forecasts of long-term economic and demographic growth and change, and a regional economic modeling framework that allows model users to develop alternative forecasts. This commentary provides 10-year economic and population forecasts for the top 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, using REMI—a comprehensive economic/demographic forecasting model. While it focuses on metropolitan areas, the fundamental demographic and economic factors that guide the future of a region are the same. States, cities, and rural areas have underlying demographic and economic forces that will determine their destiny.

Association of Neighborhood Economic Trajectories With Changes in Weight Status Among Black and White Adults in the Southeastern US

Neighborhood environment is an important factor associated with population disparities in obesity. However, few studies have examined whether and in what ways long-term trajectories of neighborhood conditions may be associated with weight outcomes. Moreover, there is a lack of research focusing on multidimensional and nuanced measures that make distinctions between multiple types of neighborhood change (eg, gentrification vs overall growth). To examine the association between long-term neighborhood economic trajectories and changes in weight status among Black and White adults residing in predominantly low-income communities in the southeastern US. This study was a longitudinal analysis of participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study. Five types of neighborhood economic trajectories (stability, growth, displacement, abandonment, and poverty concentration) were measured using data from the US Census and the American Community Survey from 2000 to 2016. Data were analyzed from December 12, 2021, to July 16, 2022. A total of 33 621 Black and White adults in the southeastern US were included in the analytic sample. Neighborhood economic trajectory. Substantial weight gain and substantial weight loss (ie, gaining or losing ≥10% of baseline weight) between baseline (March 2002 to September 2009) and follow-up (November 2008 to January 2013) periods were assessed using self-reported information. Among 33 621 participants, the mean (SD) age was 53.4 (8.8) years; 22 116 participants (65.8%) were women, 21 782 (64.8%) were Black, and 11 839 (35.2%) were White. Compared with residents in neighborhoods with stable trajectories, those in neighborhoods with growth trajectories that did not displace original residents were less likely to experience substantial weight gain (odds ratio [OR], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.97), whereas those in neighborhoods with poverty concentration trajectories were more likely to experience substantial weight gain (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.00-1.17). These patterns appeared stronger among Black participants (eg, substantial weight gain in poverty concentration group: OR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.00-1.22]; in growth group: OR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.56-1.02]) compared with White participants (eg, substantial weight gain in poverty concentration group: OR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.90-1.18]; in growth group: OR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.52-1.36]). Differences in patterns were also observed among men (eg, substantial weight gain in poverty concentration group: OR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.88-1.17]; in growth group: OR, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.35-0.96]) compared with women (eg, substantial weight gain in poverty concentration group: OR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.02-1.23]; in growth group: OR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.62-1.12]). However, none of the interaction terms between Black vs White participants and men vs women were statistically significant. Neighborhood trajectory was not associated with substantial weight loss (poverty concentration group: OR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.93-1.09]; abandonment group: OR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.84-1.15]; displacement group: OR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.83-1.23]; growth group: OR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.69-1.12]). In this cohort study, neighborhood economic trajectories were associated with weight gain. These findings highlight the importance of using more nuanced and multidimensional measures of neighborhood change in public health research.

Reflections on neo-Kaleckian growth regimes: a Marxian reproduction perspective

PurposeThe neo-Kaleckian model follows the ideas of Marx, Keynes and Kalecki, that investment is a key influencing factor in the dynamics of the capitalist mode of production. Through the discussion of different forms of investment decision function, this paper constructs the analysis framework of wage-led and profit-led economic growth regimes.Design/methodology/approachThe model has become an important theoretical paradigm for current Western heterodox economists regarding the research on the impact of functional income distribution on economic growth, and it has a very large impact on both theoretical and empirical research. Starting from Marx's reproduction theory, this article discusses the theoretical shortcomings of the neo-Kaleckian growth regime model.FindingsThis paper mainly focuses on three aspects: (1) the ideological legacy of “Smith's Dogma”; (2) neglecting the restrictions on income distribution from the organic composition of capital and the surplus value rate; (3) technological progress and the formation of a new long economic wave.Originality/valueThe authors believe that the neo-Kaleckian model unilaterally emphasizes the demand-side factors in the economy and, unconsciously or not, ignores the role of the supply-side, which makes it encounter certain limitations in explaining long-term growth. Even if some empirical conclusions are employed to bridge functional income distribution and technological progress, there is still a lack of a theoretical basis for accurately describing long-term economic changes using this model. In order to better promote high-quality economic development and accelerate the formation of a new pattern of economic development in which the domestic large-scale cycle is the mainstay and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other, the authors need to adopt a policy combination with the supply-side as the main and the demand-side as the supplement, and to work from both sides.

The Role of Substitute Industries for Revitalizing Shrinking Cities

In past decades, many cities and regions have underwent structural transformations—e.g., in old industrialized “rust belts” or in peripheral rural areas. Many of these shrinking cities have to face the challenges of long-term demographic and economic changes. While shrinkage is often related to post-industrial transformations in the USA, in other countries, such as Germany, for example, the causes are related to changing demographics with declining birth rates and the effects of the German reunification. Many cities have tried to combat shrinkage and have thus developed a variety of policies and strategies such as the establishing of substitute industries. To assess the sustainability of this approach, this paper investigates the cities of Cleveland, USA and Bochum, Germany in a comparative analysis following the most similar/most different research design. The paper shows that substitute industries might lead to new development paths for shrinking cities; however, whether these paths stimulate sustainable development is dependent on those who are benefiting from these developments and to what extent.

Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China

Precise multi-scenario projections of future economic outputs based on localised interpretations of global scenarios and major growth drivers are important for understanding long-term economic changes. However, few studies have focussed on localised interpretations, and many assume regional uniformity or use key parameters that are recursive or extrapolated by mathematical methods. This study provides a more intuitive and robust economic framework for projecting regional economic growth based on a neoclassical economic model and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. A non-uniform version of SSP2 (the middle-of-the-road scenario) was developed, and more detailed population projections for China were adopted using municipal-level data for 340 districts and parameter settings based on China’s recent development. The results show that China’s GDP will vary substantially across SSPs by 2050. Per capita GDP ranges from 19,300 USD under SSP3 (fragmentation) to 41,100 USD under SSP5 (conventional development). Per capita GDP under SSP1 (sustainability) is slightly higher than under SSP2, but lower on average than under SSP5. However, SSP1 is a better choice overall because environmental quality and equity are higher. Per capita GDP growth will generally be higher in relatively low-income regions by 2050, and the upper-middle-income provinces will become China’s new engine for economic growth.

The rise of prosociality in fiction preceded democratic revolutions in Early Modern Europe

The English and French Revolutions represent a turning point in history, marking the beginning of the modern rise of democracy. Recent advances in cultural evolution have put forward the idea that the early modern revolutions may be the product of a long-term psychological shift, from hierarchical and dominance-based interactions to democratic and trust-based relationships. In this study, we tested this hypothesis by analyzing theater plays during the early modern period in England and France. We found an increase in cooperation-related words over time relative to dominance-related words in both countries. Furthermore, we found that the accelerated rise of cooperation-related words preceded both the English Civil War (1642) and the French Revolution (1789). Finally, we found that rising per capita gross domestic product (GDPpc) generally led to an increase in cooperation-related words. These results highlight the likely role of long-term psychological and economic changes in explaining the rise of early modern democracies.

Long-term economic change: Craft extensification in the Mesoamerican cotton textile industry

Mesoamerican cotton textile production shows a long-term process of craft extensification (the geographic and social expansion of cotton processing and weaving without a notable increase in productivity per person). Few economies of scale, high labor input, restrictions in the environments in which cotton can be grown, and increasing social demand for textiles contributed to craft extensification. The western lower Papaloapan basin in south-central Veracruz provides a case study showing the inception of craft extensification by the Early Classic period, CE 300–600. Production was not concentrated at elite residences and was widespread in commoner households and environmental zones. Environmental variation in the basin and related agricultural techniques raise the possibility of selection for annualized traits in cotton. Annualized varieties were important in the spread of cotton cultivation to more upland environments from the tropical coastal areas to which the plant was initially adapted. Craft extensification contributed strongly to regional and community specialization and trade, which are traits relevant to monitor long-term economic change and growth.

Business Cycle and Occupational Accidents in Korea.

BackgroundOccupational accidents occur for a variety of reasons, such as unsafe behaviors of workers and insufficient safety equipment at the workplace, but there are also various economic and social factors that can impact working conditions and working environment. This study analyzed the relationship between changes in economic factors and the occurrence of occupational accidents in Korea.MethodsMultilinear regression analysis was used as the analysis model. The general to specific method was also used, which consecutively removes statistically insignificant variables from a general model that includes dependent variables and lagged variables of dependent variables.ResultsThe frequency of occupational accidents was found to have a statistically significant relationship to economic indicators. The monthly number of cases of occupational injury and disease and fatal occupational injuries were found to be closely related to manufacturing capacity utilization, differences in the production index in the services sector, and commencements of building construction. The increase in equipment investment indicators was found to reduce fatal occupational injuries.ConclusionThe results of this study may be used to develop occupational accident trends or leading indicators, which in turn can be used by organizations that manage and monitor occupational accidents toward taking administrative action designed to reduce occupational accidents. The results also imply that short-term and mid- to long-term economic and social changes that can impact workers, workplaces and working conditions, and workplace organizations must be taken into account if more effective government policies are to be established and implemented toward further prevention of occupational accidents.

Shrinking cities: Implications for planning cultures?

Various institutional and cultural settings have shaped spatial planning systems with comparable features; however, such systems have been adapted to specific cultural, normative and spatial conditions. In line with the growing demand for international knowledge exchange in urban and regional planning, planning cultures have recently come into sharper focus. Moreover, it has become widely acknowledged that many cities in Europe and the USA have to deal with challenges posed by long-term demographic and economic changes. This also holds true for Japan. The objective of the research presented here is to comparatively investigate changes in planning cultures in view of shrinking cities in the USA, Germany and Japan. The findings will allow us to detect interdependencies between changes in planning cultures and societal changes in the wake of shrinkage, and finally to derive hypotheses for both the future-oriented development of shrinking cities, and the development of planning cultures based on the comparison of cultural settings. In this respect the paper concludes with the hypothesis that there might be planning cultures that are not framed by geographic entities (nations, regions, cities), but rather by topics along shrinking cities. This could offer insight into a new research sphere of ‘topical planning cultures’. While lasting effects and successes of policies and strategies applied in shrinking cities remain to be seen, their influence on a broader knowledge exchange, contextualisation and innovation in the sphere of planning cultures is evident.

Detecting and Mapping Slag Heaps at Ancient Copper Production Sites in Oman

This study presents a new approach for detection and mapping of ancient slag heaps using 16-band multispectral satellite imagery. Understanding the distribution of slag (a byproduct of metal production) is of great importance for understanding how metallurgy shaped long-term economic and political change across the ancient Near East. This study presents results of slag mapping in Oman using WorldView-3 (WV3) satellite imagery. A semi-automated target detection routine using a mixed tuned matched filtering (MTMF) algorithm with scene-derived spectral signatures was applied to 16-band WV3 imagery. Associated field mapping at two copper production sites indicates that WorldView-3 satellite data can differentiate slag and background materials with a relatively high (>90%) overall accuracy. Although this method shows promise for future initiatives to discover and map slag deposits, difficulties in dark object spectral differentiation and underestimation of total slag coverage substantially limit its use. Resulting lower estimations of combined user’s (61%) and producer’s (45%) accuracies contextualize these limitations for slag specific classification. Accordingly, we describe potential approaches to address these challenges in future studies. As sites of ancient metallurgy in Oman are often located in areas of modern exploration and mining, detection and mapping of ancient slag heaps via satellite imagery can be helpful for discovery and monitoring of vulnerable cultural heritage sites.

Evolution and transformation mechanism of the spatial structure of rural settlements from the perspective of long-term economic and social change: A case study of the Sunan region, China

Being the world's largest developing country and having a vast rural population and large swaths of rural areas, China has experienced complex historical periods. However, few studies provide general summaries of spatial evolution of rural settlements, particularly the evolutionary contexts of complex historical processes. Considering that China's society, economy, and spaces in urban and rural areas have entered a phase of rapid restructuring in response to economic globalisation and the new urbanisation in recent years, exploring and summarising the general evolutionary path of the spatial structure of rural settlements over a long period of time constitute a particularly important research objective. This study examined Sunan region, an ideal representative epitomising the modern history of China, as a case area, results found that the evolutionary process of spatial structure of rural settlements could be categorised as discrete and isomorphic, centripetal and hierarchical, branching and dual, and diversified network system follow the historical periodisation. Rural spatial structure has experienced three moments of transformation under the trend of urban-rural mutual interaction, thus mechanism is driven by internal and external forces under economic and social change over different periods, evidently in contemporary era. Although rural settlements have manifested diversified developmental patterns in China, theories and methods that are applicable to domestic situations are still urgently needed to summarise the evolutionary mechanism and to provide vital channels for the national strategy of rural revitalisation in the process of urban-rural integrated development.

Long-term Economic Development and Employment Changes: The Indonesian Experience

This article assesses Indonesia’s long experience with economic development from 1990 up to 2014–2015. It examines economic growth and employment changes in three sub-periods: the high economic growth period 1990–1996; the Asian financial crisis and recovery period 1997–2007 and the global economic crisis from 2008 to the present. In this periodisation, the crisis years and their impact on employment experienced by Indonesia from 1990 to 2014–2015 will be visible. Additionally, it also examines changes in employment dualism, that is, formal vs. informal employment as well as changes in labour productivity during this extended time. This article shows that Indonesia’s economy performed exceptionally well after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis on the back of a continued prudent macroeconomic framework and solid policy reforms. Employment continued to increase and poverty continued to show a declining trend.

A strategic approach to selecting policy mechanisms for addressing coal mine methane emissions: A case study on Kazakhstan

Coal production globally is projected to grow in the foreseeable future. Countries with heavy reliance on coal could reduce methane and other emissions through the capture and utilization of coal mine methane (CMM) in the short and medium term, while they pursue structural and long-term economic changes. Several countries have successfully implemented policies to promote CMM capture and utilization; however, some countries still struggle to implement projects. This paper outlines key factors to consider in adapting policies for CMM mitigation. The authors propose an approach for selecting adequate mechanisms for stimulating CMM mitigation that involves reviewing global best practices and categorizing them functionally either as mechanisms needed to improve the underlying conditions or as CMM-specific policies. It is important to understand local policy frameworks and to consider whether it is more feasible to improve underlying policy conditions or to provide targeted incentives as an interim measure.Using Kazakhstan as a case study, the authors demonstrate how policymakers could assess the overall policy framework to find the most promising options to facilitate CMM projects. Kazakhstan’s emissions from underground coal mines have been increasing both in total and per tonne of coal production, while overall production has been declining. CMM mitigation presents an opportunity for the country to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in the near and medium term, while the government pursues sustainable development goals. Analysis shows that policymakers in Kazakhstan can leverage existing policies to stimulate utilization by extending feed-in tariffs to cover CMM and by developing working methodologies for companies to obtain emission reduction credits from CMM projects.

The spatial restructuring of competitive tennis in Germany

The paper explores the impact of the long-term demographic and economic changes Germany faces in competitive tennis. It is argued that demographic changes, rural restructuring, and urbanization serve to shrink the sociodemographic niche for middle- and upper-class sports in particular in rural regions. The idea is tested by analyzing data on competitive tennis teams from Hesse. The multilevel Poisson regression that was performed supports the idea that the development of competitive tennis teams is dependent on demographic and economic context factors although demographic factors dominate. Strong regional disparities are detected suggesting that competitive tennis is subject to a process of spatial restructuring. Methodological limitations and perspectives for further research are discussed.

From a crisis of financing mechanisms to sustainable economic growth

The article examines the main factors that shaped the negative macroeconomic trends in the Russian economy in 2013–2016. The author estimates the current potential of long-term economic growth and changes compared to the situation after the crisis of 2008–2009. Requirements for a promising model of funding economic growth are formed.

Contemporary demographic changes of the Rasina district

Rasina District is faced with serious demographic problems at the beginning of the twenty-first century which are the consequence of long-term economic and social changes both in this area and the country as a whole. The basic problem is insufficient population regeneration, which further leads to other negative processes. One of the most important problems of Rasina District is the ageing of population, i.e., a drop in young population and a significant rise in old population. Therefore, the population of Rasina District is already in the critical phase of demographic aging. Such age structure influences further economic development of this area at large. The decrease in young population, which is the carrier of future reproduction and regeneration of the population of this area, is evident. So as to stop or decelerate these processes, it is necessary to improve life conditions and ensure certain economic standard. Otherwise, these processes will not be stopped; they will be all the more intensified.