Long-term Changes Research Articles

Current state and long-term changes in the taxocene of marine polychaetes of the Karadag Nature Reserve (Republic of Crimea, Russian Federation)

Taxonomic and trophic structure and quantitative development of polychaetes are examined in the marine coastal areas of the Karadag Nature Reserve in 2021–2022. 40 species belonging to 30 genera and 15 families are discovered. From 1938 to 2022, 75 species have been recorded in this area. According to the nutritional spectrum, polyphages are the most represented, phytophages are the least represented. The average number of polychaetes in 2021–2022 is 100 ± 53 ind./m2, the average biomass is 3.55 ± 0.023 g/m2; S. papillocercusthe prevails in the total abundance and biomass, 98 and 99%, respectively. The change in the species composition, abundance and biomass of marine polychaetes of the Karadag Nature Reserve, inhabiting hard bottom substrates (1984–2022) and soft soils (1938–2021), is considered. From 1984 to 2021, 29 species of polychaetes have been recorded on soft substrates, and only two species in 2021–2022: Namanereis littoralis and Saccocirrus papillocercus. In underwater rock assemblages, on the contrary, the largest number of species (38) has been found in 2021–2022, and the smallest (14) in 1938–1940 (a total of 65 species found during 1938–2022). A transformation of the species composition and trophic structure of polychaetes occurred in the coastal biotopes of soft and hard bottom substrates in the marine area of the Karadag Nature Reserve from 1938 to 2022, with a decrease in the number of phytophages, as well as a decrease in quantitative characteristics. Presumably, the de crease in the number and diversity of polychaete worms on soft substrates is associated with a decrease in the macrophyte algae biomass. The results obtained, supplemented by data on the structure of phytocenoses and characteristic of bottom substrates, can be used in environmental monitoring of protected water areas of the Black Sea.

Long-term changes in qualitative composition of the Buzuluk Pine Forest avifauna (Orenburg Province area) based on retrospective and present-time observations

We conducted a comparative analysis of qualitative composition of the Buzuluk Pine Forest avifauna, mainly based on data collected by ornithologist E.P. Knorre for the period 1928–1941, and modern observations done between 2000 and the present. Retrospective data were obtained from the now-defunct Buzuluk Bor Reserve with an area of 10 503 hectares (now Borovoye-Opytnoe Forestry in the Orenburg Province). Present-time personal avifaunistic observations (using standard methods with referring to literature sources) were carried out on an area of 49 000 hectares, both in Borovoye-Opytnoe and in several adjacent forestries that were part of the Buzuluk Bor National Park within the Orenburg Province. Comparing the historical and current bird lists, we used a relative assessment of changes in the composition of various bird groups based on the observed and expected frequencies according to the χ2 test. Long-term data on average annual temperatures and precipitation from a nearby state weather station were also used. As a result, it is shown that by now the list of birds of E.P. Knorre decreased from 153 to 109 species (28.8%). When comparing by orders, the water birds were found to be the most affected group. The number of species in orders Podicipediformes, Ciconiiformes, Gruiformes decreased by 80–100%, and it dropped by more than 50% in orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes. There was also a slightly smaller decrease in the number of species in orders Falconiformes and Strigiformes – by about 40%. An assessment of the relative changes in various bird groups from Knorre’s list based on expected and observed frequencies showed significant differences in the portion of avifauna associated with water. It decreased between 23.5% and 9% in the group ‘Limnophiles’ (χ2 = 11.7, df = 1, p = 0.0006) and between 24.8% and 9% in the group of orders represented by waterfowl and waterbird species (χ2 = 13.4, df = 1, p = 0.0002). The change in the portion of birds of prey was statistically non-significant. The same portion assessment method did not statistically confirm the decrease in the rest ecological and order groups. Comparison of groups by occurrence status found no significant changes in the portions of all groups of birds in the past and present, but the largest reduction was recorded in the group of migrating species. The portion of migrants decreased from 8.7% to 3.0% (χ2 = 3.2, df = 1, p = 0.07, Yates corrected χ2 = 2.2, p = 0.1). A dramatic decline in group of bird species associated with wetlands was suggested to be due, among other factors, to the progressive desiccation of the Buzuluk Pine Forest, as E. Knorre himself wrote in his report. The ongoing aridization of the climate, as shown by the graph of average annual air temperatures, has been taking place since at least the 20s of the twentieth century and led to the drying-up of wetlands, and also to migration of groundwater to deeper horizons. The emerging trend towards a reduction in the portion of migrants could be explained by the fact that a number of migratory bird species, mainly ducks and waders, disappeared in the study area, and several other migrants began breeding species. In addition, large-scale fires and logging led to formation of burned wasteland areas inside the forest at the beginning of the twentieth century and also probably contributed to fragmentation and desiccation of this biome.

Integrating historical and recent information to understand chondrichthyan dynamics in the central Mediterranean

Chondrichthyans (sharks, rays, and chimaeras) are highly susceptible to the impacts of fisheries due to their vulnerable life-history traits. Over the last 100 years, several cases of local extinction have been documented in heavily fished areas across the Mediterranean Sea. In the Strait of Sicily (SoS), one of the main demersal fishing grounds of the Mediterranean, chondrichthyans constitute a significant component of both commercial and discarded bycatch. In this area, the lack of long-term data series on these species hinders our ability to fully comprehend the extent of changes due to both overfishing and climate variations. Here we aim to use historical data from the end of the 19th century, provided by Döderlein, to uncover evidence of long-term changes in the occurrence and diversity of these fishes. We employ a semi-quantitative approach to compare past data with recent frequency of occurrence estimates, to improve our ability to propose management advice. We report a decline in both the number of species and the frequency of occurrence of sharks and ray species in the study region over the past 150 years. Our findings shed light on the current status of sharks and rays compared to the historical data from the 19th century and highlight the urgent need to develop management strategies to mitigate the impact of harvesting on these vulnerable species.

Changes in the discharge regime of Finnish rivers

Study regionFinland divided into three subregions, each representing different environmental conditions. Study focusThis study investigates long-term changes in unregulated river discharge. Trends in high- and low-flow event volumes, magnitudes, timings, and frequencies are analysed across 36 gauging stations in 19 watershed areas from 1911 to 2021. The average measurement period for discharge in the stations is 60 years, with over 765,000 daily records examined statistically. New hydrological insights for the regionHigh-flow events show advancing timings and decreasing magnitudes, notably in the coastal region and less so in the north. These events, occurring from 6 to 68 days earlier in 21 stations, now in the late winter and early spring, align with increasing spring low-flow volumes. On a monthly scale, a trend of rising volume magnitude is observed in late autumn, winter, and early spring, especially in Northern Finland's rivers. High flows during autumn and winter occur 30 to 60 days later in 8 stations. Changes in the monthly mean volumes were found in 30 stations, suggesting a redistribution of annual volumes across a broader time period, while the overall annual volumes have remained relatively unchanged. This underscores the complexity of hydrological patterns, emphasizing the need to consider total volumes and their temporal distribution in analyses. The findings enhance understanding of current changes and align with findings in the boreal-subarctic area.

Quantifying decadal stability of lake reflectance and chlorophyll-a from medium-resolution ocean color sensors

Multi-decadal time-series of Lake Water-Leaving Reflectance (LWLR), part of the Lakes Essential Climate Variable, have typically been interrupted for the 2012–2016 period due to lack of an ocean color sensor with capabilities equivalent to MERIS (2002−2012) and OLCI (2016 - present). Here we assess, for the first time, the suitability of MODIS/Aqua to estimate LWLR and the derived concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chla) at the global scale across optically complex water types, in an effort to fill these information gaps for climate studies. We first compare the normalized water-leaving reflectance (Rw) derived from two atmospheric correction algorithms (POLYMER and L2gen) against in situ observations. POLYMER shows superior performance, considering the agreement with in situ measurements and the number of valid outputs. An extensive assessment of nine Chla algorithms is then performed on POLYMER-corrected Rw from MODIS observations. The algorithms are tested both in original parameterizations and following calibration against in situ measurements of Chla. We find that the performance of algorithms parameterized per Optical Water Type (OWT) allows considerable improvement of the global Chla retrieval capability. Using 3 years of overlapping observations between MODIS/Aqua and MERIS (2009–2011) and OLCI (2017–2019), respectively, MODIS-derived reflectance and Chla products showed a reasonable degree of long-term stability in 48 inland water bodies. These water bodies, therefore, mark the candidates to study long-term environmental change.

Understanding future hydrologic challenges: Modelling the impact of climate change on river runoff in central Italy

Central Italy’s diverse ecosystems and landscapes are susceptible to the Mediterranean climate change, affecting water resources and riverine systems. Managing these resources is crucial for the nation’s sustainable development and resilience. This research assesses potential long-term climate change impacts on river runoff in central Italy’s highly regulated Aterno-Pescara River watershed. We simulated current and future river runoff using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+). Climate projections from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios are used to quantify potential runoff and drought characteristic changes in SWAT+ to investigate future (2015 – 2100) climate change impacts on river runoff. All GCMs predicted increasing daily temperature (up to 0.6 °C decade−1 at 95 % confidence level) and decreasing precipitation trends (−16.4 mm decade−1), resulting in negative river runoff trends (−0.036 m3s−1 decade−1). Uncertainties exist regarding variable magnitudes among GCMs and scenarios. Analyzing 12-month standardized precipitation and runoff drought indices using projections data revealed a strong correlation between drought indices (Pearson correlation coefficient ranges between 0.63 − 0.93 among GCMs). The run-sum technique for both indices showed potential frequent, severe, and prolonged future droughts, with meteorological droughts possibly lasting up to 105 months (severity 163) and hydrological droughts exceeding 100 months (severity over 150). This study provides crucial insights for central Italy’s policymakers, emphasizing the need for strategies addressing climate change impacts on water resources for future sustainability.

Color Change of Laminate Veneer Restorations Applied to Bleached Teeth.

The aim of this study was to examine the color stability of laminate veneer restorations restored with CAD/CAM material applied to bleached teeth. In this study, 80 upper central teeth extracted because of periodontal, orthodontic or trauma problems were used. The teeth were embedded in acrylic blocks and divided into 8 groups (n=10). Groups A, B, C and D were bleached with vital bleaching agent before preparation, and teeth were prepared for laminate veneer restorations. Groups E, F, G and H were prepared without bleaching. Groups A and E were restored with A1 GC LiSi İnitial HT blocks, Groups B and F were restored with A1 GC LiSi İnitial LT blocks, Groups C and G were restored with A1 IPS Emax CAD HT blocks, Groups D and H were restored with A1 IPS Emax CAD LT blocks. All restorations were adhesively cemented and aged for 2 and 5 years with thermal cycle. Color measurements of the restorations at the beginning, after 2 and 5 years of aging were measured with a spectrophotometer. All bleached groups had more color changes than the unbleached groups. The least color change after 2 years of aging was observed in GC LiSi Initial LT (ΔE00=0.81) and IPS Emax CAD LT (ΔE00=0.81) materials which were used on unbleached teeth and the most color change was observed in GC Initial LiSi HT (ΔE00=0.93) and IPS Emax CAD HT material (ΔE00=0.92) which were used on bleached teeth. After 5 years of aging, the least color change was observed in IPS Emax CAD LT (ΔE00=0.83) and GC LiSi Initial LT material (ΔE00=0.84) which were used on unbleached and the highest color change was observed in GC Initial LiSi HT (ΔE00=0.96) and IPS Emax CAD HT material (ΔE00=0.94) which were used on bleached teeth. Bleaching and translucency affect the color stability. No difference was detected between the color changes of GC LiSi Initial and IPS Emax CAD materials. The increase in aging time increased the color changes of all materials. Bleaching and laminate veneer restorations may be preferred in many patients. For this reason, the long-term color change of laminate veneer restorations applied to bleached teeth is clinically very important. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of tooth bleaching on the long-term color change of laminate veneer restorations produced with different translucent CAD/CAM materials.

Enhancing feedback by health coaching: the effectiveness of mixed methods approach to long-term physical activity changes in nurses. An intervention study

BackgroundAlthough knowledge of the barriers and motivators to physical activity participation among nurses is increasing, the factors influencing motivation methods’ effectiveness are not completely defined. This study aimed to identify the methods that support increasing the level of daily physical activity and the factors that influence the effectiveness of motivation methods among nurses.MethodsThis study was based on an intervention study protocol. All registered nurses in clinical settings were invited to participate in the study. The study involved 71 professionally active nurses. A self-reported questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographic and employment data. The level of physical activity was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, and the daily number of steps was assessed using a pedometer. Body composition was measured using a bioimpedance method, and the 5-year risk of cardiovascular events was assessed using the Harvard Score. The intervention included self-monitoring daily steps using a pedometer and completing a diary daily for one month. Additionally, a few-minute speech was sent to each participant via email on the intervention’s 7th, 14th, and 21st days.ResultsThe analysis revealed a higher value of physical activity recorded in the follow-up compared to the initial and final measurement in the Recreation domain [Met] (p < 0.001) and a higher value of daily steps in the follow-up compared to the final measurement (p = 0.005). Participants with a higher Harvard Score were more likely to increase their daily number of steps (OR = 6.025; 95% CI = 1.70-21.41), and nurses working in hospital wards were less likely to do so (OR = 0.002; 95% CI = 0.00-0.41).ConclusionsRecommendations for physical activity in the nursing population should focus on increasing leisure time physical activity and regular risk assessment of cardiovascular events. A mixed methods approach, such as feedback enhanced by health coaching, effectively achieves long-term physical activity changes in nurses.

From Intent to Impact: A Proactive Event Approach for Amplifying Sustainability Across Time

We extend event system theory (EST) to conceptualize proactive events and examine how event duration, timing, criticality, and disruption are related to two phases of change associated with an organizationally initiated event. Specifically, we explore the impact of a new sustainability monitoring system on energy consumption using longitudinal archival data from 87 manufacturing units of a Fortune 200 multinational firm. We use a variant of mixed-effects discontinuous growth modeling (DGM) to test EST propositions related to initial and longer-term changes associated with implementing the monitoring system. Results indicate that while the new sustainability monitoring system is effective in reducing within-unit energy consumption on average, there are significant differences in change magnitude between units. The magnitude of change during the pre-post phase was related to between-unit differences in event duration, timing, criticality, and disruption. Longer-term change patterns were related to between-unit differences in managerial criticality behaviors. The results empirically validate several of EST’s core propositions and provide an illustration of how DGM can be modified to study events that vary in onset and duration across entities.

Abstract 6837: Prolonged effects of hypoxia in luminal breast cancer cells

Abstract Metastasis is the main cause of tumor-related mortality in breast cancer patients. Improving our understanding of the metastatic cascade is imperative to improve patient outcomes. Prior research indicates cancer cells with increased metastatic potential have acquired adaptive properties induced by factors in the tumor microenvironment (TME), including hypoxia. However, previous hypoxia research has primarily focused on signaling changes that occur when cancer cells are in the hypoxic TME and does not account for long-term changes that may occur once cancer cells re-enter normoxia, such as when they metastasize. Our research in patient-derived circulating tumor cell (CTCs) lines and breast cancer cell lines indicates that certain transcriptional changes are maintained after cells leave hypoxia, and that these post-hypoxic cells maintain a higher metastatic potential compared to cells not exposed to hypoxia. Taking an un-biased approach to define changes in hypoxia-exposed breast cancer cells upon reoxygenation, we performed bulk RNA-Seq on post-hypoxic luminal breast cancer cell lines compared to normoxic controls cultured either in adherent or suspension conditions, the latter to mimic the physiological context of CTCs. We found that a subset of genes that were differentially expressed in hypoxic conditions were maintained as up- or down-regulated after cells were reoxygenated, indicating a “hypoxic memory”. Additionally, a subset of differentially expressed genes were unique to the post-hypoxic cells, demonstrating both prolonged and novel gene expression changes induced by hypoxia exposure. We also performed functional assays and observed that this post-hypoxic state is associated with a more aggressive phenotype. Current research in our lab is on-going to understand the epigenetic changes that may be responsible for this hypoxic memory. Overall, this research will improve our understanding of the prolonged consequences of hypoxia on CTC biology and metastasis. Citation Format: Aidan Moriarty, Oihana Iriondo, Yonatan Amzaleg, Remi Klotz, Min Yu. Prolonged effects of hypoxia in luminal breast cancer cells [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 6837.

Quantifying the long-term changes of terrestrial water storage and their driving factors

Global warming is expected to cause changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) across the land surface, with widespread impacts on ecosystems and society. Although extensive research has been performed to analyze TWS changes and possible drivers during the post-2000 period, longer-term evolution of TWS and associated environmental forcings remain relatively unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System model (E3SM) land model ELM version 1 (ELM v1) in simulating global TWS, and used factorial simulations of ELMv1 to quantify global TWS changes and their drivers during 1948–2012. We found that ELM’s agreed best with existing satellites and reconstruction datasets in temperate regions unaffected by irrigation. Biome- and climate zone-averaged TWS mainly increased at rates between 0 and 10 mm/year over 1948–2012, but the second half of that period saw smaller positive trends than the first half or even negative trends. Climate change explained >80 % of the TWS trends across most biomes and climate zones, followed by land use and land cover change. The physiological and phenological effects of CO2 primarily induced noticeable TWS trends in the more humid biomes and climate zones across different latitudes. In contrast, nitrogen deposition and aerosol deposition generally had smaller and negative impacts across the biomes and climate regions. Among the meteorological drivers analyzed, the long-term average imbalance between precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and runoff (Q) contributed >50 % of the TWS trends in most biomes and climate zones, with nonlinearity being induced by spatially heterogenous changes in E/P and Q/P ratios. The accumulated detrended anomalies in P, E, and Q also often contributed substantially, while the trends difference between P, E, and Q contributed little. Together, these findings unveiled an intensification of the global TWS and its diverse patterns of climate change and different non-withdrawal human-induced alterations, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and projection of the global water cycle.

Financial Market Development and Foreign Portfolio Investments in Nigeria and South Africa

The study investigates the effect of financial market development on foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria and South Africa between the periods of first quarter in 1995 to fourth quarter of 2022. The study employs an ex-post factor research design, the study deploys panel autoregressive distributed lag modelling. The inferences were made at 5% significant level. Findings from the study reveal that lagged Portfolio Investment is not statistically significant to foreign portfolio investment (coefficient = -0.5026613, p-value = 0.275), in contrast, lagged Stock Market Turnover Ratio has a significant positive coefficient (coefficient = 0.5696119, p-value &lt; 0.000), indicating a positive short-term relationship with changes in Portfolio Investment. However, other lagged variables like Stock Market Capitalization, All Share Index, Broad Money Supply, and Real Credit to the Private Sector show coefficients without statistical significance, suggesting limited short-term predictive power. In the long run, the adjusted term for lagged Portfolio Investment exhibits a highly significant negative effect (coefficient = -1.502661, p-value = 0.001). Lagged Broad Money Supply and Real Credit to the Private Sector also lack statistical significance in the long term, while lagged Stock Market Turnover Ratio and All Share Index have statistically significant positive coefficients. However, Stock Market Capitalization lacks statistical significance in predicting long-term changes in foreign Portfolio Investment. In respect to the result, the study recommended that policy makers should implement measures to enhance transparency and regulation within financial markets to promote investor confidence and attract foreign capital inflows. This may include strengthening regulatory frameworks, improving reporting standards, and ensuring effective oversight mechanisms.

Decreased river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau since around 2000

ContextMongolian Plateau is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Rivers on the plateau provide vital water for millions of indigenous Mongolian people and numerous endangered wildlife, but are increasingly disturbed by climate change and human activities. Yet, long-term changes in river runoff across the plateau remain poorly studied due to data unavailability.ObjectivesThis study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in gauged river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau, identify drivers of the observed changes, and evaluate CMIP6 models' performance in simulating historical runoff changes across the plateau.MethodsWe compiled possibly the largest database of long-term (20 - 71 years) river runoff for the plateau comprising measurements over 30 major rivers. Statistical analyses were conducted to assess trends in river runoff and correlations between runoff and climatic variables. Additionally, we applied the Budyko curve framework to identify the influence of human activities on river runoff in specific basins. Furthermore, we compared ground-measured runoff data with simulations from CMIP6 models to evaluate the ability of CMIP6 models to replicate runoff dynamics in typical arid and semi-arid regions.ResultsWe observed pervasive and abrupt reduction in runoff in 21 out of the 30 rivers within 5 years before or after the year of 2000. Variations in river runoff were most significantly caused by changes in total precipitation (TP). In particular, 27 rivers experienced abrupt TP changes around 2000, and there was a significant positive correlation between annual fluctuations in TP and river runoff for 18 rivers. In addition to climate factors, the influence of human activities was identified in certain basins. The CMIP6 simulations failed to capture the abrupt changes in runoff occurred pervasively across the plateau around 2000.ConclusionsAround 2000, major rivers on the Mongolian Plateau, especially in Inner Mongolia, experienced runoff declines, primarily due to TP changes. Human activities like dam construction and water diversion further influenced local runoff. CMIP6 historical runoff simulations were inaccurate across the plateau, highlighting the difficulty of simulating river runoff in this critical region. Our study could contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the water resource changes on the Mongolian Plateau, with direct implications for enhancing ecological conservation and management practice.

Abstract 1465: Studying basal cell adaptation in the airways in response to chronic tobacco exposure

Abstract Premalignant lesions in the airways are preceded by the accumulation of cells with a high mutational load, many of which carry driver mutations. Our previous work suggests this is a dynamic process: tobacco smoking increases the size of mutated clones, which contain shorter telomeres and higher Ki67, while smoking cessation appears to be associated with the expansion of clones with near-normal mutational burden and an overall reduction in Ki-67 expression. To understand how these long-term changes take place, we have performed ex vivo functional assays to quantify the competitive advantage imparted by smoke. We have then explored the transcriptomic landscape of these cultures to determine how differential smoke exposure modulates epithelial cell dynamics before and after smoking cessation. Primary basal cells from bronchial explants were co-cultured following different regimes of exposure to cigarette smoke extract (CSE). We find that, upon acute exposure, pre-exposed cells have a ~20% higher chance of proliferating per week than smoke-naïve cells. To test this in a more physiological model, long-term epithelioid cultures were established with chronic exposure to low-dose CSE for months. As before, we observe that over time, pre-exposed cells outcompete the smoke-naïve, suggesting that smoke imparts a beneficial adaptation on re-exposed cells even at low doses. To elucidate this mechanism, we performed RNA sequencing of 48 different combinations of acute and chronic exposure to CSE. Genes were classified into distinct modules according to their regulation following exposure, re-exposure and cessation. Differential expression analysis and gene set enrichment analysis showed that metabolic pathways, including both nutrient and detoxification pathways, are predominantly enriched in these modules. In particular, following cessation, cells with the highest cumulative exposure to CSE displayed senescent-like features which are suppressed with chronic re-exposure. Further analysis and in vivo validation of these results will help elucidate how these changes affect the likelihood of premalignancy and may provide valuable targets for cancer prevention. Citation Format: David Osuna de la Peña, Zornitsa Stoichkova, Moritz Jakob Przybilla, Charlotte Percival, Sarah E. Clarke, Kate H. Gowers, Peter J. Campbell, Sam M. Janes. Studying basal cell adaptation in the airways in response to chronic tobacco exposure [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 1465.

The relationship between GRACE gravity and the seismic b-value: a case study of the Northern Chile Triple Junction (25° S–40° S)

SUMMARY The northern Chile Triple Junction (CTJ) is characterized by the ongoing subduction of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. The geological structures within the subduction zone undergo complex changes, resulting in significant tectonic activities and intense seismicity along the western margin of South America. Based on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and earthquake catalogues, this study selects the northern CTJ area (25° S–40° S, 75° W–65° W) as the research object, adopts the mathematical methods of independent component analysis (ICA) and principal component analysis (PCA) to separate the earthquake-related signals within the GRACE data, and fits the changes of seismic b-values through the frequency–magnitude relationship. The characteristics of gravity changes before and after seismic events, the seismic activity parameter b-values, and the relationship between the gravity signals and b-values are discussed. The results show that mathematical methods can effectively extract seismic-related gravity components from the GRACE data. ICA, compared to PCA, provides better results in capturing the temporal variations associated with b-value time-series, which exhibit good consistency in long-term trend changes. The average change of b-values in the study area is 0.66 ± 0.003, fluctuating over time. Generally, prior to larger seismic events, b-values tend to decrease. Along the western margin of South America, b-values are low; this aligns with the active tectonic activities between subducting plates. Additionally, a certain correlation between b-values and gravity changes is observed, but due to the influence of tectonic activities, the correspondence between b-values and gravity anomalies may not be consistent across different areas. The b-value is highly consistent with the strain rate model. Low b-values correspond to high strain rates along the western edge of South America, which is in line with the tectonic characteristics of frequent seismic activity in this area. A gradual concentration of gravity anomalies before major earthquakes is observed, accompanied by the gradual accumulation of smaller seismic events. Meanwhile, several months before the two major earthquakes, the spatial distribution of gravity appears to be similar to the coseismic signals, but the nature of its generation remains to be explored. These methods and results not only add to the applications of GRACE in seismic studies but also raise questions for further exploration.

Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Eight Years and Beyond Longitudinal Changes of Peripapillary Structures on OCT in Adult Myopia

PurposeTo investigate the long-term changes of peripapillary structures detected by enhanced depth imaging of OCT in adult myopia. DesignObservational case series. MethodsMyopic participants who had undergone a full baseline ophthalmologic examination and followed up with a minimum of 8 years were included. Using enhanced depth imaging of OCT, scans around the optic disc in the follow-up mode which enabled capturing of the same positions were performed in 65 eyes. The peripapillary parameters including the size of border tissue, Bruch's membrane opening (BMO), peripapillary choroidal thickness, and the angle between peripapillary Bruch's membrane and anterior sclera were manually delineated and measured. ResultsThe axial length showed a significant elongation after a mean follow up time of 9.46±0.92 years. The rates of changes were 0.015±0.011 mm/y in the medium myopia group, and 0.057±0.039 mm/y in the high myopia group. At the last visit, the average border tissue length and BMO diameter were increased. The angle between peripapillary BM did not show significant change, while the angle between peripapillary sclera showed significant rise. In multivariate analysis, the border tissue elongation, BMO enlargement, and increased sclera angle were all associated with the change of axial length. The development of BM defect and inward protrusion of sclera on temporal peripapillary region was observed on 8 (34.8%) eyes in the high myopia group, along with an extreme thinning or disappearing of peripapillary choroid. ConclusionA marked longitudinal changes of peripapillary structures including border tissue, BM, choroid and sclera could be observed in adult myopic eyes, which may impact the biomechanical environment around optic nerve head.

Diverse winter communities and biogeochemical cycling potential in the under-ice microbial plankton of a subarctic river-to-sea continuum.

Microbiomes vary over multiple timescales, with short- and long-term changes in the physico-chemical environment. However, there is a scarcity of data and understanding about the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems during winter relative to summer. This is especially the case for seasonally ice-covered rivers, limiting our understanding of these ecosystems that are common throughout the boreal, subpolar, and polar regions. Here, we examined the winter under-ice microbiome of a Canadian subarctic river and its entry to the sea to characterize the taxonomic and functional features of the microbial community. We found substantial diversity in both composition and functional capabilities, including the capacity to degrade complex terrestrial compounds, despite the constraints imposed by a prolonged seasonal ice-cover and near-freezing water temperatures. This study indicates the ecological complexity and importance of winter microbiomes in ice-covered rivers and the coastal marine environment that they discharge into.

Randomized controlled double-blind trial of methylprednisolone versus placebo in patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome and cognitive deficits: study protocol of the post-corona-virus immune treatment (PoCoVIT) trial

IntroductionPost-COVID-19 Syndrome (PCS) includes neurological manifestations, especially fatigue and cognitive deficits. Immune dysregulation, autoimmunity, endothelial dysfunction, viral persistence, and viral reactivation are discussed as potential pathophysiological mechanisms. The post-corona-virus immune treatment (PoCoVIT) trial is a phase 2a randomized, controlled, double-blind trial designed to evaluate the effect of methylprednisolone versus placebo on cognitive impairment in PCS. This trial is designed based on the hypothesised autoimmunological pathogenesis and positive aberrations, employing a series of off-label applications.MethodsRecruitment criteria include a diagnosis of PCS, a minimum age of 18 years and self-reported cognitive deficits at screening. A total of 418 participants will be randomly assigned to either verum or placebo intervention in the first phase of the trial. The trial will consist of a first trial phase intervention with methylprednisolone versus placebo for six weeks, followed by a six-week treatment interruption period. Subsequently, an open second phase will offer methylprednisolone to all participants for six weeks. Outpatient follow-up visits will take place two weeks after each trial medication cessation. The third and final follow-up, at week 52, will be conducted through a telephone interview. The primary outcome measures an intra-patient change of 15 or more points in the memory satisfaction subscale of the Multifactorial Memory Questionnaire (MMQ) from baseline to follow-up 1 (week 8). Key secondary outcomes include long-term intra-patient changes in memory satisfaction from baseline to follow-up 2 (week 20), changes in other MMQ subscales (follow-up 1 and 2), and changes in neuropsychological and cognitive scores, along with assessments through questionnaires focusing on quality of life, fatigue, and mood over the same periods. Exploratory outcomes involve molecular biomarkers variations in serum and cerebrospinal fluid, as well as structural and functional brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters changes related to cognition.PerspectiveThis trial aims to contribute novel evidence for treating patients with PCS, with a primary focus on those manifesting cognitive deficits. By doing so, it may enhance comprehension of the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms, thereby facilitating biomarker research to advance our understanding and treatment of patients with PCS.

Long-Term Effects of Reproduction and Lactation on the Rat Supraspinatus Tendon and Proximal Humerus.

During pregnancy and breastfeeding, women undergo hormonal fluctuations required for fetal development, parturition, and infant growth. These changes have secondary consequences on the maternal musculoskeletal system, increasing the risk for joint pain and osteoporosis. Though hormone levels return to prepregnancy levels postpartum, women may experience lasting musculoskeletal pain. Sex disparities exist in the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders, but it remains unclear how reproductive history may impact sex differences. Specifically, the effects of both reproductive history and sex on the rotator cuff have not been studied. Pregnancy and lactation affect bone microstructure, suggesting possible impairments at the enthesis of rotator cuff tendons, where tears commonly occur. Therefore, our objective was to evaluate how reproductive history affects sex differences of the supraspinatus tendon and proximal humerus using male, virgin female, and female rats with a history of reproduction (referred to as reproductive females). We hypothesized tendon mechanical properties and humeral bone microstructure would be inferior in reproductive females compared to virgin females. Results showed sex differences independent of reproductive history, including greater tendon midsubstance modulus but lower subchondral bone mineral density (BMD) in females. When considering reproductive history, reproductive rats exhibited reduced tendon insertion site modulus and trabecular bone micro-architecture compared to virgin females with no differences from males. Overall, our study identified long-term changes in supraspinatus tendon mechanical and humeral trabecular bone properties that result following pregnancy and lactation, highlighting the importance of considering reproductive history in investigations of sex differences in the physiology and pathology of rotator cuff injuries.