Long-term Bonds Research Articles

Social Media Strategies for EFL Students: Enhancing Speaking Proficiency

Social media is a communication tool that facilitates EFL students to improve their speaking proficiency as it enables them to fully engage in oral communication, exchange information, and form long-term bonds in this modern era. This study intended to investigate EFL students’ social media as speaking strategies used vis-a-vis their speaking proficiency. A descriptive correlational design was used in this study. The participants were 70 English major students (second year and third year) at Wolkite University. To this end, data were collected using a questionnaire, the IELTS speaking proficiency test, and an interview to obtain reliable information. The findings showed that Facebook and YouTube were the most frequently used social media by learners, even though they felt less confident, more anxious, and less willing to communicate in English. The results also indicated that learners lacked awareness of how to purposefully use social media to address their speaking challenges. Conversely, the findings of this study showed that there was a positive correlation between the students’ use of social media and their speaking proficiency (r=0.461, p=.000, p>0.05). However, the students’ speaking proficiency was very poor because learners didn’t use social media for educational purposes, especially speaking skills. This might be because the learners did not use social networks effectively to promote their speaking proficiency. Therefore, it is suggested that in the learning of speaking skills, more attention should be paid to investigating the use of social media as a speaking strategy.

And Baby Makes Three: Postpartum Changes in Male-Female Affiliative Interactions in White-Faced Capuchins.

In group-living primates, male investment in infants is highly variable. Previous research on polygynandrous primates found that male care of infants, whether direct or indirect, may be a means to increase offspring survival, increase social status, invest in future mating opportunities, and/or invest in future social or coalition partners, any of which may increase fitness outcomes. Relationships between male white-faced capuchins (Cebus imitator) and infants are highly variable, ranging from neutral to highly affiliative during periods of group stability to lethal during times of instability. We used genetic paternity analysis and behavioral observations to investigate the impact of paternity status, female dominance rank, male dominance rank, and infant sex on changes in rates of affiliation (contact and proximity) between capuchin males and females following the birth of an infant (n = 92 dyads). We used generalized linear mixed models and an information theory approach to select models for averaging. We found that overall rates of male-female affiliation increased following the birth of an infant (contact change: +1.09 ± 2.55%; proximity change: +1.16 ± 3.08%). Infant sex was the only significant explanatory variable; dyads that included males and females who gave birth to male infants experienced a significant increase in their time in contact and proximity in comparison to dyads with females who gave birth to female infants (contact change: p < 0.05 in 2/3 models; proximity change: p < 0.001 in 3/3 models). These findings add to previous data indicating that male capuchins do not recognize their offspring or have the motivation to preferentially invest in their care. We suggest that the observed sex bias may be a form of sex-specific socialization connected to the importance of forming long-term cooperative male bonds that are maintained via male parallel dispersal in this species.

Long-term cooperative relationships among vampire bats are not strongly predicted by their initial interactions.

In many group-living animals, survival and reproductive success depend on the formation of long-term social bonds, yet it remains largely unclear why particular pairs of groupmates form social bonds and not others. Can social bond formation be reliably predicted from each individual's immediately observable traits and behaviors at first encounter? Or is social bond formation hard to predict due to the impacts of shifting social preferences on social network dynamics? To begin to address these questions, we asked how well long-term cooperative relationships among vampire bats were predicted by how they interacted during their first encounter as introduced strangers. In Study 1, we found that the first 6h of observed interactions among unfamiliar bats co-housed in small cages did not clearly predict the formation of allogrooming or food-sharing relationships over the next 10 months. In Study 2, we found that biologger-tracked first contacts during the first 4-24h together in a flight cage did not strongly predict allogrooming rates over the next 4 months. These results corroborate past evidence that social bonding in vampire bats is not reducible to the individual traits or behaviors observed at first encounter. Put simply, first impressions are overshadowed by future social interactions.

Duets convey information about pair and individual identities in a Neotropical bird

Abstract Vocal individuality is essential for social discrimination but has been poorly studied in animals that produce communal signals (duets or choruses). Song overlapping and temporal coordination make the assessment of individuality in communal signals more complex. Additionally, selection may favor the accurate identification of pairs over individuals by receivers in year-round territorial species with duetting and long-term pair bonding. Here, we studied pair and individual vocal signatures in the polyphonal duets of rufous horneros Furnarius rufus, a Neotropical bird known for its long-term pair bonds. Hornero partners engage in duets to deter territorial intruders and protect their partnership year-round, and can discern duets from neighbors versus strangers. Using a dataset of 471 duets from 43 pairs in two populations, we measured fine-scale acoustic features across different duet levels (e.g., complete duets to non-overlapping syllable parts) and analysis levels (pair or individual). Permuted linear discriminant function analyses classified pairs and individuals more accurately than expected by chance (means: 45% and 47% versus 4 and 2%). Pair identity explained more variance in the multivariate acoustic features of duets than individual or population identities. The initial frequency of the duet showed strong potential for encoding pair identity. The acoustic traits contributing most to individual vocal signatures varied between sexes, which might facilitate the simultaneous assessment of duetters’ identities by receivers. Our study indicates that vocal individuality may exist even in species with intricate and innate communal signals and elucidates the mechanisms employed by horneros in their social discrimination ability.

Liquidity Preference, Interest Rate Spread, and the Transformation of the US Financial System

This article examines empirical patterns of interest rate spreads between yields on long-term corporate bonds and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in the United States over the period from 1960 through 2023. Since the early 1980s, discernible patterns of interest spreads have emerged, revealing marked deviations in corporate bond yields from the FFR. We focus on financial market forces particularly arising from financial intermediaries in analyzing these patterns. To this end, the article develops a theoretical framework based on the concept of liquidity preference in Keynes’s 1937 papers and the works of Hyman Minsky and Victoria Chick. We also conduct cointegration analyses for corporate bond yields, the FFR, and financial intermediaries’ leverage ratios. Overall, our empirical results indicate that the relationship between the FFR and corporate bond yields—particularly with respect to their long-run relationship and interest rate markups—has markedly changed since the 1980s and is significantly affected by financial intermediaries’ asset/capital leverage ratios. As a policy implication, regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing the Federal Reserve Bank’s capacity to steer long-term rates and contain intermediaries’ balance sheet leverage, particularly those centered on risky asset trading to increase gains from price differentials, are required JEL Classification: B26, E11, E43, E52

Unwinding quantitative easing: State dependency and household heterogeneity

This paper studies the asymmetry in the macroeconomic effects of central bank asset market operations induced by state dependency and the associated role of household heterogeneity. We build a New Keynesian model with borrowers and savers in which quantitative easing and tightening operate through portfolio rebalancing between short-term and long-term government bonds. We highlight the significance of an occasionally binding zero lower bound in explaining a weaker aggregate impact of asset sales relative to asset purchases. In this context, when close to the lower bound, raising the nominal interest rate prior to unwinding quantitative easing mitigates the economic costs of monetary policy normalization. Furthermore, our results imply that household heterogeneity in combination with state dependency amplifies the revealed asymmetry, while household heterogeneity alone does not enhance the aggregate effects of asset market operations.

Is Your Elephant Happy? Mahout Identification and Description of Elephant Affective States in Nepal

ABSTRACT The health and welfare of working elephants is directly related to that of their mahout and to the strength and duration of elephant–human bonds. Such bonds are influenced by the ways in which mahouts understand, describe, and respond to elephant communication and dynamic elephant affective states. This study examined how mahout interpretation of elephant communication and affective states influences mahout behavior during interactions and thus influences the development and maintenance of elephant–human working and living relationships. Using in-person, semi-structured interviews with owners and mahouts, biographical and employment data on mahouts and elephants were collected. These interviews were followed by multispecies ethnographic data collection and participant observations among 41 mahouts and 29 elephants. Narrative analysis of mahout interviews, coupled with observations of mahouts and elephants, resulted in the identification of several themes that mahouts felt impacted the elephant–human working relationship, all tied to the development and nurturing of long-term bonds. The first set of themes that emerged is discussed in this paper, which includes “measures of elephant happiness” and “methods of communication.” Identifying these themes was crucial to understanding how humans and elephants build and maintain long-term bonds, as well as determining how these bonds (or their breakage) affect working relationships. Communication and bond building may be key to improving the health, welfare, and working conditions for marginalized groups of humans and elephants employed in tourism practice.

A Commentary on the Silicon Valley Bank Debacle

SUMMARY KPMG issued its audit report for the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), SVB Financial Group, on February 24, 2023, and the bank’s assets were taken over by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation regulators on March 10. Although depositors began fleeing SVB in February, deposits declined by 13 percent during the preceding fiscal year. SVB invested substantially in long-term government bonds, whose value plummeted due to significant Federal Reserve interest rate increases, and the classification of the securities prevented their conversion to cash to meet depositor demands. Alongside explaining management and regulatory failings that led to SVB’s collapse, this paper formulates an argument of possible alternative actions the auditor could have pursued during the audit or upon release of its audit report. Due to inaction, KPMG may hinder its ability to defend against current litigation.

International portfolio rebalancing and fiscal policy spillovers

We theoretically and empirically evaluate the spillover effects of debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States on other economies. We first consider a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with international portfolio rebalancing effects arising from an imperfect substitutability between short- and long-term domestic and foreign bonds. We show that the model predicts fiscal multipliers for the US similar to those found in the literature. For international spillovers, the model shows that US fiscal expansions financed by long-term debt issuance would, on net, hinder economic activity in the rest of the world (ROW). This is despite the standard trade channel's net positive effect on the ROW economy given the depreciation in the ROW currency. The fall in ROW output occurs mainly due to the increase in the ROW term premiums and long-term rates through the portfolio rebalancing channel, as the relative demand for ROW long-term bonds decreases following the increase in the supply of US long-term bonds accompanying the fiscal expansion. Testing the predictions of our theoretical model by using panel regressions and vector autoregressions, we find empirical support for the trade and portfolio balance channels of fiscal spillovers and for the negative relationship between ROW output and US fiscal policy shocks.

Perceptions About Monetary Policy

Abstract We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, in particular over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about the rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings.

From global tensions to regional integration: An analysis of bond market convergence in East Asia

Against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine (R–U) conflict, this paper investigates the convergence process of the bond market in East Asia from 2010 to 2024, focusing on the impact of the R–U crisis on bond yield convergence. Our findings show convergence toward both benchmarks, with an accelerated rate during the conflict. Malaysia, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines exhibit significant convergence toward Japan, particularly for long-term bonds, while the Philippines consistently converges toward the United States. Large discrepancies in interest rates and inflation spreads cause bond yield divergence, while geopolitical risk related to Russia narrows bond yield spreads, indicating a flight-to-quality effect. Conversely, global financial risk widens yield spreads to the U.S. benchmark but narrows them to Japan. This research highlights bond market convergence in East Asia amid geopolitical tensions, with significant implications for investors, policymakers, and researchers.

Concealed carry

The slope carry takes a long (short) position in the long-term bonds of countries with steeper (flatter) yield curves. The traditional carry takes a long (short) position in countries with high (low) short-term rates. We document that: (i) the slope carry return is slightly negative (strongly positive) in the pre (post) 2008 period, whereas it is concealed over longer samples; (ii) the traditional carry return is lower post-2008; and (iii) expected global growth and inflation declined post-2008. We connect these findings through an equilibrium model in which countries feature heterogeneous exposure to news shocks about global output and global inflation.

Re-wiring of the bonded brain: Gene expression among pair bonded female prairie voles changes as they transition to motherhood.

Motherhood is a costly life-history transition accompanied by behavioral and neural plasticity necessary for offspring care. Motherhood in the monogamous prairie vole is associated with decreased pair bond strength, suggesting a trade-off between parental investment and pair bond maintenance. Neural mechanisms governing pair bonds and maternal bonds overlap, creating possible competition between the two. We measured mRNA expression of genes encoding receptors for oxytocin (oxtr), dopamine (d1r and d2r), mu-opioids (oprm1a), and kappa-opioids (oprk1a) within three brain areas processing salience of sociosensory cues (anterior cingulate cortex; ACC), pair bonding (nucleus accumbens; NAc), and maternal care (medial preoptic area; MPOA). We compared gene expression differences between pair bonded prairie voles that were never pregnant, pregnant (~day 16 of pregnancy), and recent mothers (day 3 of lactation). We found greater gene expression in the NAc (oxtr, d2r, oprm1a, and oprk1a) and MPOA (oxtr, d1r, d2r, oprm1a, and oprk1a) following the transition to motherhood. Expression for all five genes in the ACC was greatest for females that had been bonded for longer. Gene expression within each region was highly correlated, indicating that oxytocin, dopamine, and opioids comprise a complimentary gene network for social signaling. ACC-NAc gene expression correlations indicated that being a mother (oxtr and d1r) or maintaining long-term pair bonds (oprm1a) relies on the coordination of different signaling systems within the same circuit. Our study suggests the maternal brain undergoes changes that prepare females to face the trade-off associated with increased emotional investment in offspring, while also maintaining a pair bond.

Local government debts and corporate bond spreads: Evidence from China

Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese corporate bonds that existed during 2011–2018, we find a significant positive relationship between local government debts and the credit spreads of local firms. By matching their debt maturity, we find that long-term government debts have an obvious effect on the spreads of long-term corporate bonds. Moreover, with the expansion of local government debts, local firms reduce their debt financing in response to the rising borrowing cost. These findings show that a crowding out effect does exist between local government debts and local corporate bonds. The effect is attributable to the decrease in the capital supply in the credit market, the weakened implicit guarantee from the government, and the increasing investment cost for local firms, which are all correlated with the expansion of local government debts.

Eviction-driven infanticide and sexually selected adoption and infanticide in a neotropical parrot

Infanticide and adoption have been attributed to sexual selection, where an individual later reproduces with the parent whose offspring it killed or adopted. While sexually selected infanticide is well known, evidence for sexually selected adoption is anecdotal. We report on both behaviors at 346 nests over 27 y in green-rumped parrotlets (Forpus passerinus) in Venezuela. Parrotlets are monogamous with long-term pair bonds, exhibit a strongly male-biased adult sex ratio, and nest in cavities that are in short supply, creating intense competition for nest sites and mates. Infanticide attacks occurred at 256 nests in two distinct contexts: 1) Attacks were primarily committed by nonbreeding pairs (69%) attempting to evict parents from the cavity. Infanticide attacks per nest were positively correlated with population size and evicting pairs never adopted abandoned offspring. Competition for limited nest sites was a primary cause of eviction-driven infanticide, and 2) attacks occurred less frequently at nests where one mate died (31%), was perpetrated primarily by stepparents of both sexes, and was independent of population size. Thus, within a single species and mating system, infanticide occurred in multiple contexts due to multiple drivers. Nevertheless, 48% of stepparents of both sexes adopted offspring, and another 23% of stepfathers exhibited both infanticide and long-term care. Stepfathers were often young males who subsequently nested with widows, reaching earlier ages of first breeding than competitors and demonstrating sexually selected adoption. Adoption and infanticide conferred similar fitness benefits to stepfathers and appeared to be equivalent strategies driven by limited breeding opportunities, male-biased sex ratios, and long-term monogamy.

Spillover effects of multidimensional information in Fed statements on China's bond market

This paper shows significant information spillover effects of Fed statements on China's bond market. Regarding Fed monetary policy statements as external shocks, we extract both monetary policy information and narrative sentiment information from the statements, with the sentiment data measured using the text analysis method. Furthermore, it investigates spillover effects of the multidimensional Fed information on investors' trading behaviors in China's bond market, using the event study method. Our study emphasizes three key findings. First, both monetary policy and textual sentiment within Fed statements influence trading decisions of China's bond investors, generating international spillover effects. Importantly, the role of textual sentiments as an additional spillover channel of Fed statements has been overlooked in existing literature. Second, the US monetary policy information influences investors' expectations of China's short-term interest rates and their perceptions of risks associated with holding China's long-term bonds, while the Fed's negative and uncertain sentiments primarily impact investors' short-term rate expectations. Moreover, the spillover effects of Fed sentiments on China's yield curve cannot be blocked by China's managed floating exchange rate regime. Third, the heterogeneity test reveals that spillover effects of multidimensional information in Fed conventional monetary policy statements on China's bond market are stronger than those of Fed unconventional monetary policy statements. These findings suggest that Fed narrative sentiments should be incorporated into the research framework of international spillover effect of monetary policy, especially amidst the current period characterized by growing anticipation of federal funds rate cuts and enduring monetary policy uncertainty, providing valuable insights for trading decisions of China's bond market investors.

Exploring the Impact of Quantitative Easing Policy on the Business Performance of Construction Companies with the Debt Ratio as a Moderator

During the 2008 financial crisis, central banks (such as the Fed) adopted a quantitative easing (QE) policy to stimulate their countries’ economies and overcome severe economic and financial recessions. However, apart from stimulating the economy by issuing a substantial amount of currency to purchase long-term bonds and suppress interest rates, QE policy also contributed to a boom in the real estate and construction sectors. Therefore, this study employs data envelopment analysis to measure the business performance (BP) of construction companies, and explore the impact of QE policy on the BP of construction companies, between 2004 and 2015, using hierarchical regression. We also examine the moderating role of the debt ratio on the relationship. Focused on publicly listed construction companies in Taiwan, this research reveals three encouraging findings. Firstly, QE policy indeed enhanced the BP of Taiwanese construction companies. Secondly, performance improvements in construction companies due to QE policy show a time-diminishing trend, suggesting the importance of seizing the initial policy benefits of QE implementation. Lastly, construction companies with appropriate financial leverage may exhibit better BP. These findings can provide valuable insights for relevant government entities and decision-makers in the industry for policy and investment decisions.

“Green” fiscal policy measures and nonstandard monetary policy in the euro area

The paper builds a two-region New Keynesian model with a complex energy production sector. It is calibrated to the euro area (EA) and the rest of the world. It simulates the gradual introduction of a carbon tax in the EA and finds recessionary and disinflationary effects. When green energy is subsidized and labor taxes are reduced, the recession becomes much smaller. As green fiscal policy is disinflationary in the model, assuming a binding effective lower bound on the monetary policy rate may reduce these positive effects. This can be prevented by allowing the central bank to purchase long-term sovereign bonds for monetary policy reasons.

Thick-billed Murres in breeding pairs migrate and overwinter far apart but in similar photic environments

Scheduling between mates in species with long-term pair bonds can be essential for positive fitness. The annual cycle in photoperiod is the primary environmental cue used by many animals to synchronize behavior and physiology among members of a population, and animals that migrate must have similar annual schedules to ensure successful breeding. However, we know little about whether members of mated pairs in migratory species experience similar photic environments across the year, which could allow for synchronization in annual phenology. Here, we used light-based geolocation to estimate positions of mated pairs of Thick-billed Murres (Uria lomvia, a seabird a.k.a. Brünnich’s Guillemot) which bred above the northern polar circle in Greenland. We tested the hypothesis that individuals in mated pairs occur in more similar locations and photic environments than randomly matched females and males. We found no difference in the amount of spatial separation or in the photic environment between mates and randomized heterosexual pairings. In general, the distance between females and males ranged from 1,198.5 km during August to 737.4 km during January. The sexes remained in photic environments with highly correlated photoperiods and moderately correlated times of solar noon in UTC. The spatial separation of, but similar photic environments experienced by, female and male murres regardless of pair status is probably adaptive by facilitating the synchronization of annual schedules between sexes, while allowing individuals in mated pairs the freedom to pursue the best foraging opportunities during migration and overwintering independent of their mate.

Is the Balance Sheet Expansions of the Central Banks Inadequate? The Case of Japan

The Bank of Japan has continued monetary expansion to combat deflation for over twenty years. However, in March 2024, the Bank raised the negative policy interest rate that had lasted eight years and two months. From now on, the Bank should cope with huge balance sheet expansion. Although yield curve control (YCC) has been abolished, long-term interest rates will continue to be controlled to some degree since the Bank will continue to purchase long-term government bonds. New purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been completed, but the main measures of normalization, such as removing ETFs from the huge balance sheet, will not be implemented easily because of increasing risk of stock prices decreasing. Consequently, there will be some possibilities to lead to a rise in long-term interest rates, a strong yen (a decrease in exports), and also to a decline in stock prices. Empirical analyses are conducted to examine the effects of monetary expansion and the results are positive, however, this study emphasizes the importance of the credibility of central banks.