Long Spells Of Unemployment Research Articles

“I thought I was going to die there:” Socio-political contexts and the plight of undocumented Latinx in the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, certain U.S. population groups have suffered higher rates of infection and mortality than whites, including Latinx. Public health officials blamed these outcomes on overcrowded housing and work in essential industries prior to the vaccine's availability. We sought to illuminate the lived experience of these factors through a qualitative study of undocumented Latinx immigrant workers in the secondary economy (n ​= ​34). This study focuses on the intersectionality of social locations for undocumented Latinx immigrants living in a relatively affluent suburb and working in the construction and service sectors prior to the pandemic. Their narratives revealed how the pandemic created financial precarity through prolonged periods of unemployment and food insecurity. Workers described worry over unpaid bills, and potentially catastrophic episodes in which they treated severe COVID-19 with home remedies. Long spells of unemployment, food insecurity, inability to pay bills and lack of access to healthcare emerged because of socio-political contexts including the nature of low-wage labor and lack of a safety net.

Job Search of Older Unemployed Workers: Evidence from Longitudinal Data

Previous research has shown that older unemployed workers reduce their reservation wage at higher rates than their younger counterparts. However, we know little about why this is the case. In this paper, we focus on the psychological toll of joblessness for older workers as they experience long spells of unemployment. Using longitudinal data on unemployed workers in New Jersey, we first show that the negative emotions of older workers during unemployment intensify at a higher rate than younger workers as they remain unemployed. We then provide early evidence that older workers reduce their reservation wage at a higher rate, because remaining unemployed is psychologically more costly for older workers than their counterparts. We discuss the implications of our findings.

Assessing the Job-Finding Probability of Older and Prime-Age Unemployed Workers

We analyse the extent and determinants of somewhat gloomy employment prospects of older unemployed populations in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. For this purpose, we explore the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions over the period 2004-2014. Survival estimates suggest that older unemployed workers face lower job-finding probabilities compared to prime-age unemployed workers, while this age-based gap increases with longer unemployment spells. The results of estimating the hazard models reveal that the job-finding probability of older unemployed workers is about 20-25% lower than that of the prime-age group, even after controlling for explanatory covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Unemployment duration appears to be the major determinant of job-finding probability within both age groups. In contrast, the impact of explanatory covariates (gender, education, household characteristics, etc.) is relatively less robust and/or uniform.

Investigating the subjective well-being of the informally employed: A case study of day labourers in Windhoek and Pretoria

Orientation: Day labouring is becoming more frequent in developing countries. Long spells of unemployment and the uncertainty of informal wage employment impact negatively on the subjective well-being (SWB) of day labourers. Research purpose: The aim of the article was to investigate the level and possible determinants of the SWB of day labourers in Pretoria and Windhoek. Motivation for the study: Up to now, only one study has been carried out in South Africa on the SWB of day labourers and none in Namibia. This study aimed to start filling this gap in the literature. The choice of the two cities was based on their status as the capital cities of two countries that are both experiencing increasing numbers of day labourers. Research design, approach and method: A mixed-method research design and purposeful sampling were used to obtain representative samples. Data were sourced from comparable surveys amongst day labourers in the two cities between 2015 and 2017. Questionnaires with quantitative and qualitative sections were completed during structured interviews with 290 and 80 day labourers in Pretoria and Windhoek respectively. The ordinary least squares model and ordered-probit analysis were employed to analyse the data. Main findings: In Pretoria, the number of dependents, the living conditions and whether they had a full-time job before were all significant in explaining the SWB of the day labourers. In Windhoek, education levels, total days without food, staying with their families and being a foreigner were also significant. Practical/managerial implications: The needs of the informally employed must be addressed in the integrated development plans of municipalities and integrated with day labour worker centres. Contribution/value-add: This is the first study to analyse SWB amongst day labourers in Namibia and lays the foundation for future expanded studies.

Why Are Employers Put Off by Long Spells of Unemployment?

Recent evidence from large-scale field experiments has shown that employers use job candidates’ unemployment duration as a sorting criterion. In the present study, we investigate what underlies this pattern. To this end, we conduct a survey experiment in which employers make hiring decisions concerning fictitious job candidates who have experienced spells of unemployment of different length. In addition, candidates are rated on several statements that are central to four signals often associated with unemployment: (i) a signal of trainability, (ii) a signal of other fixed skills, (iii) a signal of skill loss, and (iv) a signal of negative evaluation by other employers. We use these ratings to estimate a multiple mediation model, in which the effect of the duration of unemployment on hiring intentions is mediated by the four signals. Our findings indicate that longer unemployment spells are mainly perceived by employers as a signal of lower motivation and, as a result, the long-term unemployed (LTU) have lower chances to be hired or even be invited to a job interview. Understanding the reasons why employers are reluctant to hire the LTU is crucial to devise proper activation measures to facilitate their re-employment. Our study is a contribution in this direction.

Retirement saving in the UK: a life-cycle analysis

PurposeThis paper aims to study long-term savings accumulation in the UK. The authors use cross-sectional information from the extensive data set of the Family Resources Survey to compare long-term saving amongst different ethnic groups with the control group, the native population. The paper reflects on whether different groups are more likely to suffer poverty in retirement.Design/methodology/approachIn this analysis, the authors apply the life-cycle framework to explain saving profiles. This theoretical model has been used extensively in the field of economics and can be applied to empirical studies to examine changes in income and saving patterns over the life-course. The framework contends that individuals make savings decisions to smooth consumption over different phases of their life-cycle.FindingsThe findings indicate that socio-economic factors are key elements in determining whether individuals plan for retirement if factors are controlled for the differences in saving behaviours between ethnic minorities and the control population decrease considerably. Asian women, with good education and social standing, display greater saving rates than the control group, while the socio-economic disadvantage suffered especially by Pakistani and Bangladeshi women is key to their inability to save long-term. High levels of poverty in retirement are more likely to be caused by the interaction of low levels of education, part-time work and long spells of unemployment than by ethnicity.Originality/valueThe important contribution to the debate on savings by ethnic minorities is the extension of the life-cycle model to specific sections of the population and to proffer new insights into their saving/dis-saving patterns and ultimately their welfare in retirement.

Specific Human Capital and Wait Unemployment

A displaced worker might rationally prefer to wait through a long spell of unemployment instead of seeking employment at a lower wage in a job he is not trained for. I evaluate this trade-off using...

Specific Human Capital and Wait Unemployment

A displaced worker might rationally prefer to wait through a long spell of unemployment instead of seeking employment at a lower wage in a job he is not trained for. I evaluate this trade-off using micro-data on displaced workers. To achieve identification, I exploit that the more a worker invested in occupation-specific human capital the more costly it is for him to switch occupations and the higher is therefore his incentive to wait. I find that between 9% and 18% of total unemployment in the United States can be attributed to wait unemployment.

Student Loans Under the Risk of Youth Unemployment

While most college graduates eventually find jobs that match their qualifications, the possibility of long spells of unemployment and/or underemployment—combined with ensuing difficulties in repaying student loans—may limit and even dissuade productive investments in human capital. The author explores the optimal design of student loans when young college graduates can be unemployed and reaches three main conclusions. First, the optimal student loan program must incorporate an unemployment compensation mechanism as a key element, even if unemployment probabilities are endogenous and subject to moral hazard. Second, despite the presence of moral hazard, a well-designed student loan program can deliver efficient levels of investments. Dispersion in consumption should be introduced so the labor market potential of any individual, regardless of the family’s financial background, is not impaired as long as the individual is willing to put forth the effort, both during school and afterward, when seeking a job. Third, the amounts of unemployment benefits and the debt repayment schedule should be adjusted with the length of the unemployment spell. As unemployment persists, benefits should decline and repayments should increase to provide the right incentives for young college graduates to seek employment.

Youth Unemployment Duration and Competing Exit States: What Hides Behind Long Spells of Black Youth Unemployment in South Africa?

AbstractThe paper examines the role of personal characteristics in not only determining the unemployment duration but also the probability of unemployment terminating with transitions into wage‐employment, self‐employment or higher education. Formulated within the survival analysis framework using the Labour Market Entry Survey, this study provides the first empirical evidence on black youth unemployment duration in South Africa. The results of the analysis indicate non‐monotonic duration dependence with other individual, household and locational covariates exerting very different impacts on the state‐specific exit rates from unemployment for both young men and women. The scarring impact evident in negative duration dependence and gender‐specific findings point to the need for more informed policy formulation.

The employment history of day labourers in South Africa and the income they earn - A case study of day labourers in Pretoria

Formal sector unemployment forces many workers to venture into the informal sector. The activities of day labourers are no exception. The aim of this paper is to address the lack of research on informal labour markets by focusing on the day labourers in Pretoria as a case study and to investigate the employment history of and income earned by day labourers in Pretoria. Day labourers involved in this study were mainly male, young, low skilled, earning low and uncertain levels of income and working under harsh conditions. A significant portion of day labourers in Pretoria previously held formal sector occupations. Long spells of unemployment can make it difficult for day labourers to return to the formal sector. Many activities in the informal sector can never provide a permanent solution to unemployment.

Horizontal Career Changes as an Alternative to Premature Exit From Work

Certain workplaces are called jobs with limited tenure. Due to physical or psychosocial risk factors, often coupled with qualification mismatches, workers cannot grow old in them. That may lead to premature exit into retirement, to a period of drawing a work incapacity pension or to a long spell of unemployment. A horizontal career change, which enables the worker to move on to a less burdening workplace while preserving social status, is a possible solution. The objective of the “Horizontal career change—a new job opportunity for older employees” project is to develop a model of career changes for workers employed in jobs with limited tenure and to implement it in the form of an information- and communication technology-based tool. Possible applications range from individual career planning, through institutionalized vocational reintegration, to personnel development in small and medium-sized enterprises.

An Empirical Analysis of Welfare Dependence in the Czech Republic

The scope of this paper is to empirically test whether the potential disincentive effects of the Czech social security system affected the labor flows from unemployment to employment over the period 1995-2005. Combining individual data from the Czech Labor Force Survey and the Czech Household Income Survey, the analysis exploits the difference between the available social benefits and the net household income when a person is employed. Estimates imply that individuals who receive relatively higher social benefits are also more likely to remain unemployed and it is shown that the groups most affected are those with low education and long spells of unemployment. The paper confirms that the level and persistence of unemployment in the Czech Republic after 2000 can be partly attributed to the nationwide level of social support that constitutes a welfare trap for some individuals.

Training the Unemployed in France: How Does it Affect Unemployment Duration and Recurrence?

Econometric evaluations of public-sponsored training programmes generally find little evidence of an impact of such policies on transition rates out of unemployment. We perform the first evaluation of training effects for the unemployed adults in France, exploiting a unique longitudinal dataset from the unemployment insurance system. Using the so-called timing-of-events methodology to control for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity, we find that training does not accelerate the exit from unemployment, but has a significant and positive effect on the duration of the subsequent employment spell. Accounting for training duration, we find that longer training spells cause longer unemployment spells, but also longer employment spells, suggesting that training improves the matching process between jobseekers and .rms.

Beating the Odds: Impact of the Economic Recession on Young People in the UK

Beating the Odds: Impact of the Economic Recession on Young People in the UK

Imperfect Knowledge, Asset Price Swings and Structural Slumps: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis of Their Interdependence

This paper discusses interactions between speculative behavior in the currency markets and aggregate ‡uctuations in the real economy. It builds on the Structural Slumps theory in Phelps (1994) and the recent theory of Imperfect Knowledge Economics in Frydman and Goldberg (2007). The former emphasizes real interest rates and real exchange rates as potentially important determinants underlying the persistent ‡uctuations in aggregate activities, and the latter provides the conditions under which speculative behavior in currency markets generates such persistence. The paper argues that by combing the two theories we can shed new light on the two-way interdependence between persistent swings in asset markets and persistent ‡uctuations in the real economy. In particular, we may improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind the long recurrent spells of high unemployment that continue to mar our economies. � The views in this paper are strongly in‡uenced by previous and ongoing research with Roman Frydman, Michael Goldberg and Soren Johansen. I am deeply grateful to Roman and Michael for sharing with me their profound insight in international macro and how imperfect knowledge economics can resolve its many empirical puzzles and to my son, Mikael Juselius, for numerous valuable comments on an early version of this paper.

Marketplace matching in Britain: Evidence from individual unemployment spells

This paper investigates job matching patterns in Great Britain. Evidence from individual transitions out of unemployment demonstrates that recently unemployed workers are likely to find jobs in the existing stock of vacancies. If, however, they are unlucky and fail to match early on, job seekers cease matching with existing vacancies. Workers with longer unemployment spells instead form matches with the flow of new vacancies. This pattern is more pronounced for workers who experienced only short spells of employment prior to their current job search. This evidence provides robust support for stock-flow matching but is difficult to reconcile with random matching.

Youth Exclusion in Iran: The State of Education, Employment and Family Formation

With output and consumption growing at about 5 percent a year for over a decade, the Iranian economy today seems quite robust overall. Investment levels remain quite high and the road, electricity, water and natural gas infrastructures are well maintained. But the legal and institutional infrastructure remains underdeveloped. Much needed legal reform to deal with the requirements of a modern contractual economy has been overshadowed in recent years by political skirmishes over other aspects of legal improvements, including reform of the penal code and laws governing the freedom of the press. Property rights and the incentives for long-term private investment have been undermined by corruption and an unfavorable business environment.Amidst this macro-economic setting, a demographic burst, caused by high fertility rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s, has created new choices and challenges for today's youth in Iran. Traditional Iranian society offered a smoother and more predictable transition from youth to adulthood. But with the gradual disappearance of traditional society and rapid social and economic change, predictable transitions from youth to adulthood have given way to uncertainty and unpredictability. The unusually large cohort of youth today has led to overcrowding in schools, gender imbalance in the marriage market and increased pressure on Iran's rigid formal labor market. Iran can take better advantage of this demographic dividend by turning the increased investment in the health and education of this youth cohort into higher productivity and economic growth by providing it with better opportunities for learning and employment.Using conceptual frameworks relating to social exclusion literature and life transitions, the inclusion of youth and their successful transition to adulthood is analyzed by looking at three dimensions: acquiring skills for productive employment, finding a job and setting up a family. In Iran, long spells of unemployment, measured in years rather than months, which deny young men and women the ability to marry and set up a home, have created conditions for exclusion of youth despite a low overall incidence of poverty and relatively high education. Special attention is paid to the difference in experiences of men and women and rich and poor individuals in transition to adulthood.

Homeownership and Labour Market Behaviour: Interpreting the Evidence

This paper reviews the empirical research that has been generated by Oswald's thesis, which claims that there is a causal relationship from homeownership to unemployment. The literature confirms a decreasing effect of homeownership on geographical mobility of workers, but does not in general confirm that homeowners have longer unemployment spells or higher unemployment rates. Even though this finding is related to heterogeneity in the labour force and associated selectivity effects, there are clear indications that there is also an effect of homeownership on the search for jobs on the local labour market, especially for highly leveraged homeowners. To offer an integrated representation of the various forces at work, this paper proposes an umbrella model with endogenous search intensity that is consistent with much of the empirical evidence. In particular, it predicts lower geographical mobility of homeowners as well as higher exit rates from unemployment - by acceptance of jobs on the local labour market.

Nonemployment stigma as rational herding: A field experiment

Long spells of unemployment are known to reduce the likelihood of re-employment, but it is difficult to discern the reasons for this observation. Using an experimental method that controls for search intensity and possible discouragement of job applicants, I document that job market opportunities for the nonemployed diminish rapidly over time. In this experiment, duration dependence is solely due to firm perceptions. Why do firms view long spells of nonemployment as negative signals? Rational herding is one important factor. Managers believe that unemployed applicants were previously interviewed, and if the applicants were productive, they would have been hired.