Long-run Wealth Research Articles

The long-run stock performance following announcements of sustainable supply chain management initiatives

PurposeThis study aims to examine and analyze the determinants of the stock market performance after firms announce sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) practices.Design/methodology/approachThe study focuses on the long-run stock performance of firms announcing SSCM investments. The authors collected a sample of 280 SSCM announcements from 2010 to 2017 and estimated the buy-and-hold abnormal stock returns up to three years following the announcements. Numerous analyses were conducted to analyze the effect of environmental and social sustainability on long-run stock returns.FindingsThe findings show a significantly positive stock performance in the three-year period after announcements. Moreover, the evidence indicates that the post-announcement abnormal stock return has an inverted-U relationship with corporate environmental sustainability but not with corporate social sustainability. Finally, whether firms expand the firms' corporate sustainability strength to SSCM practices or not, firms secure long-run wealth as long as SSCM programs are carried out.Research limitations/implicationsThe research focuses on the stock performance of USA public firms to draw conclusions about firms' market performance. This research leaves out the private and born-sustainable firms.Practical implicationsThe findings offer firms incentives to invest in SSCM and suggest the magnitude of value provided by each sustainability type to help firms set firms' supply chain (SC) sustainable investment level.Originality/valueThe study is the first to investigate the long-run stock performance of firms announcing SSCM practices and the contribution of different sustainability types to stock performance.

When Fortune Doesn’t Favor the Bold: Perils of Volatility for Wealth Growth and Preservation

Successful entrepreneurs and executives often hold much of their wealth in a highly appreciated single stock and thereby face a difficult financial dilemma. On the one hand, the high idiosyncratic volatility of a concentrated single stock position can lead to significant risk of catastrophic losses; on the other hand, selling the stock can result in an immediate and punitive tax burden. This article develops an analytical framework for evaluating this choice and explains how it relates to classic betting strategies and economic theory. For many investors, a full and immediate liquidation of their appreciated single stock might be optimal from the perspective of long-run wealth growth and preservation. In fact, in the absence of diversification, most investors must expect catastrophic losses of wealth over reasonable investment horizons. For investors reluctant to incur an upfront tax burden, tax-efficient techniques for disposing of an appreciated single stock might strike the balance between the urgency to diversify concentrated risk and aversion to taxes. Whereas for median and mode cumulative wealth, the primary effect likely comes from diversification, be it tax efficient or not, for mean cumulative wealth, the tax efficiency of diversification can yield a tangible improvement.

Heterogeneous Dynasties and Long-Run Mobility*

Abstract Recent empirical work has demonstrated a positive correlation between grandparent-child wealth rank, even after controlling for parent-child wealth rank, and a positive correlation between dynastic wealth ranks across almost six hundred years. We show that a simple heterogeneous agents model with idiosyncratic wealth returns generates a realistic wealth distribution, but fails to capture these long-run patterns of wealth mobility. An auto-correlated returns specification of this model also fails to capture both short- and long-run mobility. However, an extension of the heterogeneous agents model that includes permanent heterogeneity in wealth returns is able to simultaneously match the wealth distribution and short- and long-run wealth mobility.

Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Wealth inequality in the U.S., measured by the top 1% wealth share, experienced dramatic changes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic theory suggests that the key to understanding wealth inequality is heterogeneity in the return to net worth across households. To understand the dynamics of wealth inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a novel methodology that allows us to estimate the returns to net worth for different groups of households at relatively high frequency. We show that portfolio heterogeneity and asset price movements are the main determinants of wealth returns and inequality, whereas saving-rate heterogeneity and within-class return differences played a minor role. As the stock market continued to outperform the housing market, the return of the wealthy has risen faster than that of other households, reinforcing the wealth concentration at the top. We also document a widening racial return gap between white and black households later in the pandemic. Nearly all of the racial differences in the wealth return, however, are explained by the differences in wealth, not by race itself. Whereas the previous literature has evaluated return heterogeneity and its implications for long-run wealth inequality in low-frequency data, our analysis suggests that return heterogeneity together with large asset price movements is also the key to understanding short-run dynamics in wealth inequality.

Rising wealth inequality: when r − g matters

Abstract We investigate the effects of the gap between the rate of return on wealth and the growth rate, r − g, on wealth inequality using a model of inherited wealth and productivity inheritance featuring heterogeneity in labor income and in the death rate. The heterogeneity in the death rate implies different health types, which imply type dependence and scale dependence. Labor income heterogeneity implies a U-shaped effect of r − g on wealth inequality. Long-run wealth inequality increases in r − g if the distribution of the death rate features good-health types and if r − g is sufficiently larger than a positive threshold, which is increasing the dispersion of labor income. The share of good-health types and the r − g’s threshold in the Survey of Consumer Finances are 31.8% and 4.5%, respectively.

Impact of household livelihood diversification on welfare in Ghana

This paper uses the Ghana Living Standards Survey Round 6 (GLSS 6) to study the impact of livelihood diversification on welfare based on instrumental variable (IV) estimation procedure. Welfare is measured by real daily consumption expenditure per adult equivalent and asset index while livelihood diversification is measured with the count and Margalef indices. The study found that livelihood diversification has both short-run consumption gain and long-run wealth creation effect. Welfare difference among Ghanaian households is also explained by the difference in human, social, financial/productive, natural and physical assets. As such, the provision of alternative/complementary livelihood strategies for vulnerable households and financial inclusion of households are recommended. Also livelihood interventions with focus on agricultural, subsistent non-agricultural and low-paid livelihood households may be effective for promoting inclusive development.

Wealth Inequality and the Financial Accumulation Process

Previous theoretical and computational analyses demonstrate that uncorrelated variations in individual asset returns promote extreme inequality in financial wealth. This paper describes a standard individual-based computational model of this financial accumulation process and then extends it in order to expose other key influences on wealth inequality. We find large effects of individual behavior, cultural practices, tax policy, and technological change. Specifically, we present simulation experiments with heterogeneous saving rates, a stylized marriage institution, a wealth tax structured to mirror contemporary policy proposals, and variations in wage growth. These experiments demonstrate that modest concessions to realism have large effects on long-run wealth inequality in models of the financial accumulation process.

Nudging against panic selling: Making use of the IKEA effect

A typical behavioral pattern of investors is to reduce stock market exposure after a crash. This leads to a typical “buy high, sell low” strategy that is detrimental to long-run wealth accumulation. We suggest a simple nudge based on the IKEA effect and the endowment effect that reduces this problem substantially: actively involving investors in the selection process of the risky investments, while restricting their selections in a way that preserves a large degree of diversification. The “self-assembled” portfolio is, indeed, less likely to be sold off: in an experiment with N=219 university students, we show that this nudge reduces panic selling significantly. In fact, it makes a difference that is at least as big as the difference between experienced and inexperienced investors.

Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19

Covid-19 has dealt a devastating blow to productivity and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents to identify the tradeoffs involved in restoring the economy to its pre-Covid-19 state. Several tradeoffs, both over time, and between key economic variables, are identified, with the feasible speed of successful re-opening being constrained by the transmission of the infection. In particular, while more rapid opening up of the economy will reduce short-run aggregate output losses, it will cause larger long-run output losses, which potentially may be quite substantial if the opening is overly rapid and the virus is not eradicated. More rapid opening of the economy mitigates the increases in both long-run wealth and income inequality, thus highlighting a direct conflict between the adverse effects on aggregate output and its distributional consequences.

Riches and Rationality

ABSTRACT A one-boxer, Erica, and a two-boxer, Chloe, engage in a familiar debate. The debate begins with Erica asking Chloe, ‘If you’re so smart, then why ain’cha rich?’ As the debate progresses, Chloe is led to endorse a novel causalist theory of rational choice. This new theory allows her to forge a connection between rational choice and long-run riches. In brief, Chloe concludes that it is not long-run wealth but rather long-run wealth creation that is symptomatic of rationality.

On the long-run wealth distribution in a simple Ramsey model with heterogeneous households

This paper analyzes the long-run wealth distribution in a Ramsey model where individuals have a common rate of time preference but different intertemporal elasticities of substitution. As a result, it is shown that heterogeneity among households in intertemporal substitution is sufficient for the existence of a non-degenerate long-run wealth distribution. We also investigate the properties of the long-run wealth distribution and the transition of capital and consumption using the phase diagram.

Capital Income Risk and the Dynamics of the Wealth Distribution

In this paper, we develop and numerically solve a model of idiosyncratic labour income and idiosyncratic interest rates to predict the evolution of a wealth distribution over time. Stochastic labour income follows a deterministic growth trend and it fluctuates between a wage and unemployment benefits. Stochastic interest rates are drawn initially (ex-ante heterogeneity), fluctuate between two values (ex-post heterogeneity) and can differ in their arrival rates (financial types). A low interest rate implies a stationary long-run wealth distribution, a high interest rate implies non-stationary wealth distributions. Our baseline model matches the evolution of the wealth distribution of the NLSY 79 cohort from 1986 to 2008 very well. When we start in 1986 and target 2008, we obtain a fit of 96.1%: The fit for non-targeted years is 77.0% on average. When targeting the evolution of wealth, the fit is 88.9%. With a more flexible interest rate distribution, the fit can even be increased to 96.7%. Comparing calibrated mean returns with data shows that the flexible interest rate distribution has empirically not convincing superstar states. In the baseline model, mean returns are empirically convincing. Surprisingly, the standard deviation of model returns is an order of magnitude lower than the empirical standard deviation.

International Real Estate Review

Increases in stock prices are said to affect house prices due to the wealth effect. Researchers have used aggregate indexes of both house and stock prices from different countries and produced mixed and poor results in support of the wealth effect. Like them, we find long-run support for the wealth effect in six out of 18 OECD countries when we use a linear model. However, when we separate the increases in stock prices from declines and estimate a nonlinear model, a long-run wealth effect is observed in 13 out of 18 OECD countries. Not only are the long-run effects asymmetric in all 13 countries, but so are the short-run effects in all of the countries.

On the Accumulation of Wealth: The Role of Inheritances

Inheritances reduce relative measures of wealth inequality according to recent evidence from several countries. Using a theoretical model and Swedish administrative data, we first show that this counter-intuitive finding can be explained by high intergenerational wealth mobility and low inheritance inequality relative to wealth inequality. We then exploit two quasi-experiments: randomness in the timing of death and an inheritance tax repeal. We find that the equalizing effect of inheritances is short-lasting and reverted within a decade since less wealthy heirs deplete their inherited wealth rapidly in contrast to more affluent heirs. This depletion represents a constant reduction in annual savings equivalent in size to 10% of the average inheritances amount. 70% of this additional annual non-labor income are allocated to consumption (half of it is car purchases) in the first years, compared to 90% in later years. The remaining 30% (or 10%) reflect a considerable albeit declining labor supply elasticity with respect to inheritances. Taken together, our findings suggest that inheritance taxation can reduce long-run wealth inequality solely through the taxation of very large inheritances.

Capital Income Risk and the Dynamics of the Wealth Distribution

In this paper, we develop and numerically solve a model of idiosyncratic labour income and idiosyncratic interest rates to predict the evolution of a wealth distribution over time. Stochastic labour income follows a deterministic growth trend and it fluctuates between a wage and unemployment benefits. Stochastic interest rates are drawn initially (ex-ante heterogeneity), fluctuate between two values (ex-post heterogeneity) and can differ in their arrival rates (financial types). A low interest rate implies a stationary long-run wealth distribution, a high interest rate implies non-stationary wealth distributions.Our baseline model matches the evolution of the wealth distribution of the NLSY 79 cohort from 1986 to 2008 very well. When we start in 1986 and target 2008, we obtain a fit of 96.1%: The fit for non-targeted years is 77.0% on average. When targeting the evolution of wealth, the fit is 88.9%. With a more flexible interest rate distribution, the fit can even be increased to 96.7%. Comparing calibrated mean returns with data shows that the flexible interest rate distribution has empirically not convincing superstar states. In the baseline model, mean returns are empirically convincing. Surprisingly, the standard deviation of model returns is an order of magnitude lower than the empirical standard deviation.

Impact of strategy switching on wealth accumulation

Various investment strategies coexist in financial markets. Fluctuations in the profitability of strategies rationalize investors’ strategy switching behaviors. Under bounded rationality and limited information, such behavior is usually driven by comparing the past performance of different strategies. But at what pace should investors change their strategies? Does a frequent strategy switching lead to a higher wealth in the end? To answer these questions, a discrete dynamic heterogeneous agent model is proposed, in which agents follow heuristic rules and a market maker adjusts the price of a risky asset. Agents are classified by their propensity of strategy switching. It is found that agents with a higher propensity adopt the better strategy more often, but end up with less final wealth. This counter-intuitive phenomenon is caused by the inconsistency between short-run profit and long-run wealth accumulation.

Bequests, estate taxes, and wealth distributions

Bossmann et al. (J Public Econ 91:1247–1271, 2007) found that estate taxes reduce the long-run wealth inequality. This result contrasts with the findings of the previous literature with idiosyncratic labor efficiency risk. We use a decomposition technique, developed by Davies (J Labor Econ 4:538–559, 1986), to reinvestigate the impact of estate taxes on the long-run wealth inequality. We find that the different results of estate taxes are due to the different redistribution effects.

Global Inequality Dynamics: New Findings from WID.world

This paper presents new findings on global inequality dynamics from the World Wealth and Income Database (WID.world), with particular emphasis on the contrast between the trends observed in the United States, China, France, and the United Kingdom. We observe rising top income and wealth shares in nearly all countries in recent decades. But the magnitude of the increase varies substantially, thereby suggesting that different country-specific policies and institutions matter considerably. Long-run wealth inequality dynamics appear to be highly unstable. We stress the need for more democratic transparency on income and wealth dynamics and better access to administrative and financial data.

Wealth Shocks and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Stock Market Fluctuations

Do wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly in developed countries? The economic literature is skeptical about such effects which have so far only been found for poor retirees in poor countries. In this paper I show that wealth shocks also matter for the health of wealthy retirees in the US. I exploit the booms and busts in the US stock market as a natural experiment that generated considerable gains and losses in the wealth of stock-holding retirees.Using data from the Health and Retirement Study I construct wealth shocks as the interaction of stock holdings with stock market changes. These constructed wealth shocks are highly predictive of changes in reported wealth. And they strongly affect health outcomes. A 10% wealth shock leads to an improvement of 2-3% of a standard deviation in physical health, mental health and survival rates. Effects are heterogeneous across physical health conditions, with most pronounced effects for the incidence of high blood pressure, smaller effects for heart problems and no effects for arthritis, diabetes, lung diseases and cancer. The comparison with the cross-sectional relationship of wealth and health suggests that the estimated effects of wealth shocks are larger than the long-run wealth elasticity of health.

Limiting losses may be injurious to your wealth

Theory tells us that if return distributions are independent over time, an expected utility maximizing logarithmic-utility investor will almost surely accumulate the most long-run wealth. This paper examines the robustness of the result. Specifically, it examines the expected and unexpected long-run and short-run consequences of imposing Value at Risk and other loss constraints on power-utility investors with a numerical example and empirically in an asset-allocation setting covering the 1934–2008 period. In addition, it examines the expected and unexpected long-run consequences of imposing Conditional Value at Risk constraints on power-utility and prospect-theory (kinked linear-utility) investors.