Long-run Interest Rate Research Articles

Valuing the distant future under stochastic resettings: the effect on discounting

We investigate the effects of resetting mechanisms when valuing the future in economic terms through the discount function. Discounting is specially significant in addressing environmental problems and in evaluating the sense of urgency to act today to prevent or mitigate future losses due to climate change effects and other disasters. Poissonian resetting events can be seen in this context as a way to intervene the market, it modifies the discount function and it can facilitate a specific climate policy. We here obtain the exact expression of the discount function in Laplace space and attain the expression of the long-run interest rate, a crucial value in environmental economics and climate policy. Both quantities are obtained without assuming any model for the evolution of the market. Model specific results are achieved for diffusion processes and in particular for the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and Feller processes. The effect of Poissonian resetting events is non-trivial in these cases. The overall lesson we can learn from the obtained results is that effective policies to favor climate action should be resolute and frequent enough in time: the frequency of the interventions is critical for actually observing the desired consequences in the long-run interest rate.

Forecasting Pakistan stock market volatility: Evidence from economic variables and the uncertainty index

This study examines the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) and macroeconomic variables on the volatility of the Pakistan stock market using the GARCH-MIDAS (mixed data sampling) model. The model allows us to observe whether those variables contain valuable information to forecast stock market volatility. Our empirical findings show several outcomes. First, our out-of-sample results show economic policy uncertainty index has predictive power to forecast Pakistan stock market volatility. Second, among all variables, oil prices are the most powerful predictor of volatility with a higher out of sample R square value. Third, all macroeconomic variables including exchange rate, short-term interest rate, money supply M2, foreign direct investment, gold prices, inward remittances, industrial production, and consumer price index (proxy for inflation) contain useful information for stock market volatility forecasting. However, the long-run interest rate is an ineffective indicator of volatility during the sample period study. Finally, we find that the combination forecast information is also useful for volatility forecasting.

Asymmetry in the Long-Run Interest Rate Spillovers on the Monetary Policy of EU Countries Outside the E Mu

Asymmetry in the Long-Run Interest Rate Spillovers on the Monetary Policy of EU Countries Outside the E Mu

The Present-Value Model of the Exchange Rate with a Persistently Time-Varying Risk Premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen Rate

In this study, I formulate a present value model of the exchange rate with a risk premium and introduce exchange rate risk exposure as a factor of the persistently time-varying risk premium. The present value model incorporates expectations for the distant future, and therefore, indicates that spot exchange rate variations reflect changes in long-run future interest rate differential and exchange rate expectations, in addition to a risk premium for long-run risk exposure. I also conduct empirical analyses using mainly the USD/JPY rate and other exchange rates against the USD. The Japanese current account balance provides a better estimation of the change in USD/JPY rate market risk exposure as USD invoiced trades are prevalent in Japan. Then, I demonstrate the possibility that a persistently time-varying risk premium offsets the effect of the interest rate differential on exchange rate variations, which can be a solution to the uncovered interest rate parity puzzle.

Non-Linearities and the Euler Equation: Does Uncertainty Have an Effect on the Approximation Quality?

Abstract Deriving a forward-looking Euler equation, this paper compares two fully identified non-linear versions. The difference (or bias) between them stems from an approximation by extracting parameters from the expectation values (Jensen’s inequality) as it is common practice in the literature. Furthermore, the model is completely identified using Consensus Forecasts data for the expectations, inflation-indexed bonds as a proxy for the long-run real interest rate, and estimates for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Regression analyses using data for three major economies reveal that the difference between the two Euler versions can be explained by uncertainty in the data itself and external uncertainty measures. The results confirm a connection between theoretical and empirical higher-order moments in economic models.

The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Communication

Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty. JEL Classification: E52, E58, C55

Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates

This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from Bloomberg including end-of-the-month values over the period January 1962-August 2020, the other from the ECB reporting average monthly values over the period January 1900-August 2020. The estimation results indicate that both are highly persistent and exhibit non-linearities, the latter being more pronounced in the case of the ECB series.

An Aggregate-Level Macro Model for the Indian Economy

We make an empirical attempt to model the Indian economy at an aggregate level with annual data, ranging from 1980 to 2019. Our major theoretical premise mimics the New Keynesian framework, which is based on the microeconomic foundations of Keynesian economics. We propose a whole economic structure in the form of nine equations. Aggregate demand is modeled with the help of four equations, representing consumption, private investment, exports, and imports. Aggregate supply assumes the form of a simple neoclassical production function where labor, capital, and exogenous technical progress are considered as inputs. Further, inflation is assumed to follow a New Keynesian representation whereas the LM curve has its standard form with income and short-term rate of interest as its determinants. Subsequently, a linking equation, expressing long-run interest rates as a function of short-term interest rates and government investment, is proposed to unify monetary policy and fiscal policy to the goods market. Finally, tax is estimated as a function of per capita income. A structural equation model is employed for the empirical analysis and findings support the theoretical expectations. Consumption follows the absolute income hypothesis, and private investment is governed by the accelerator principle. Further, the negative sign of nominal interest rates in the investment function confirms an inverse relation between the former and private capital formation. Exports are found to be influenced by world income, exchange rates, and government capital formation, and import demand is determined by domestic income, the difference between domestic and international inflation, and the lagged exchange rate. From the policy perspective, we suggest the suitability of fiscal and monetary policies for increasing growth in the Indian economy. However, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy is observed to have a larger impact on growth than easy monetary policy. This inference is drawn mainly on the basis of a simulation exercise for the proposed structural equation model.

The Ukrainian interest rate pass-through in the post-1999 era and the effectiveness of the countercyclical monetary policy

This study investigates the nature of the Ukraine interest rate pass-through from January 2000 to November 11, 2018-the post-1999 era. The empirical results reveal a relatively high short-run interest pass-through of 0.724100 and a marginally overshooting long-run interest rate pass-through of 1.054309. The bounds test results indicate a strong long-term relationship between countercyclical monetary policy and market rates. These empirical findings suggest that the National Bank of Ukraine has been very effective in formulating and implementing its countercyclical monetary policy, in spite of the pervasive corruption, formidable political and economic challenges faced by the Ukrainian Republic over this sample period, the results are quite surprising.

The long-run information effect of central bank communication

Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty.

Interest-rate causality between the federal funds rate and long-run market interest rates

This paper investigates empirical relations between the federal funds rate/federal funds future rate and long-run market interest rates, employing a cointegration technique, vector error-correction modeling, and the Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). As a result, stable long-run relationships between the federal funds rate and Treasury bond rates are identified in the form of bidirectional causalities that are supportive of the Structuralist position, while the findings indicate unidirectional causalities from the federal funds rate to the Treasury bond rates in the short run. Empirical evidence in this paper also rejects the Horizontalist view that the expected future federal funds rate is relevant to current movements of the long-run interest rates, demonstrating Moore (1991) and his followers’ reverse interpretation on the causality from market rates to the federal funds rate to be inaccurate. An implication of such findings is that the current and the expected future federal funds rate do not have as much exogenous power on long-run market rates as claimed by Horizontalists, and the federal funds rate is, rather, endogenous to market rates for the 2004:2–2008:8 period.

Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy

Abstract The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis, GDP remains below its pre-crisis trend in many economies and interest rates continue to be very low. This raises the question of whether low GDP growth and low interest rates are a temporary phenomenon or are due to a decline in long-run growth prospects (potential output growth) and equilibrium real interest rates (natural interest rate). Addressing this question is important for central banks for conducting monetary policy and adjusting their strategy. In this paper, the authors address this question based on a review of the literature and an evaluation of the most recent data and discuss implications for monetary policy.

Interest rate liberalization and pass-through of monetary policy rate to bank lending rates in China

We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error correction model (ECM). The results show that after liberalization the mark-up is lower, and both the long-run and short-run interest rate pass-through has become faster and more complete. We attribute our findings to the ongoing reforms of China’s banking system, which has improved the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.

The long-run information effect of central bank communication

Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty.

A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve

We use wavelet analysis to study the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic indicators in Canada. We rely on the Nelson–Siegel approach to model the zero-coupon yield curve and use the Kalman filter to estimate its time-varying factors: the level, the slope and the curvature. Apart from establishing a bidirectional yield–macro relation, the paper broadens the existing literature by exploring the link between the monetary policy and the yield curve. We reached several conclusions. First, the monetary policy variable, the bank rate, affects mainly short-run interest rates. Arguably, the main driver for economic activity is the long-run interest rate (instead of the short run), suggesting that monetary policy is mostly ineffective. Second, we concluded that concerning the inflation rate, the Bank of Canada is very proactive. Third, regarding the unemployment rate, we found that both the slope and the curvature are leading indicators for the long-run evolution of unemployment. Finally, our results suggest that the industrial production index leads the yield curve factors and not the other way.

Long-run and Short-run Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Lebanon

Abstract This research detects the existence of monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Lebanon through which the actions of the central bank propagate. By adopting co-integration analysis and VECM frameworks, and by exploiting monthly data between January 1994 and December 2016, the research revealed the existence of a long-run interest rate channel, affecting both resident private sector deposits and credit to the private sector. Another short-run capital channel was revealed, affecting total credit provided by the banking sector. Additionally, the empirical results show that (1) deposit inflows are not attracted by high interest rates, but stimulated by confidence provided by large foreign currency reserves held by the central banks; (2) non-residents deposit inflows could represent a substitute for local credit; (3) banks pass-through any increase in funding cost to borrowers; and (4) an increase in external interest rates may trigger deposit outflows.

Nonlinear impacts of operating risk and demand management policy on banks’ performance: The role of leading indicator

This paper uses the slacks-based super-efficiency DEA model and panel smooth transition regression model to evaluate the nonlinear effects of one-period lagged efficiency score, core capital ratio (the proxy of operating risk), price cost margin (the proxy of market monopoly or competition pressure) and demand management policy (monetary and fiscal policies) on banks’ current performance. In empirical, 37 New York commercial banks during 1996:3Q-2016:3Q as sample objects (i.e., 2997 observations). The empirical results show that the increases in monopoly power, leverage ratio, and real federal fund rate would reduce the banks’ performance as the leading indicator is below its threshold. However, long-run interest rates have a reverse effect. The opposite conclusion holds as the leading indicator is over the threshold. The associated policies to raise the performance are to create competitive environments and construct a dynamic leverage ratio varying with the change of the leading indicator. In addition, resolving the problem of high financing costs, reducing short-run interest rates and increasing long-run interest rates during recessionary periods are also available.

Cross-Atlantic implications of the new US policy mix

This paper will assess implications of shifting policy mix in the US for global imbalances and adjustment, with a focus on the euro area, using the European Commission’s QUEST model. Following early market euphoria after the elections on the account of expected “decisive” pro-market policies, uncertainty regarding the composition and timing of the new administration's economic policies has been the norm. Early proposals included a substantial fiscal stimulus which, combined with a tightening monetary stance, was expected to drive up long-run interest rates and the dollar, leading to widening global imbalances and potential instability. Today the expansionary impact of the fiscal plans is the subject of a heated debate while monetary policy continues to tighten steadily and risks related to a protectionist trade agenda remain pronounced. Contrary to initial expectations, real interest rates and the dollar have weakened, while global imbalances persist. Addressing policy and structural needs in the US – and abroad – is a necessary condition to rein in global imbalances. In this context, this paper will discuss the role of the G20/G7 to promote a coordinated policy approach and in particular to what extent the G20/G7 can deal with the transition from crisis management to the balancing of heterogeneous preferences among the policy makers to promote global growth and stability.

Negative Interest Rate Policy in Switzerland

Objective: The purpose of this study is to present a review of the negative interest rate policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) after the outbreak of the financial crisis, in the context of falling real interest rates. Furthermore, the article demonstrates the implications of this unconventional monetary policy for the Swiss economy as well as the financial market stability. Research Design & Methods: The study is completely based on literature research. The analysis should be interpreted as being mainly suggestive since empirical research based on a quantitative analysis was not conducted. This article examines and reviews extensive arguments and evidence of 97 scientific articles. The descriptive evidence presented has a strong focus on the situation in Switzerland. Findings: In economic literature, the discussion about transmission mechanisms of the monetary policy is conducted through several channels: the interest rate channel, the ex-change rate channel and other asset price channels. In Switzerland, the impacts of the negative interest rate policy (NIRP) implemented in 2015 can so far be felt in increasing credits, especially in mortgage claims. The net income of Swiss banks from the commission and service business fell. Moreover, the exchange rate of the Swiss Franc against the Euro could be stabilised to a certain degree. Implications & Recommendations: A negative interest rate policy has an immediate impact on short-run and long-run interest rates and on banks’ interest rate margins. Currently, monetary policy is taking a turn, especially in the US. However, the leeway for higher rates in Switzerland is limited due to the interest rate differential between short-term Eurozone and Swiss money market rates. Contribution & Value Added: This article provides insights into the determinants of real interest rates and into the short-run effects of NIRP on the Swiss economy.

The Transmission Mechanism of Russian Central Banks Countercyclical Monetary Policy since 2011: Evidence from the Interest Rate Pass-Through

The study is an investigation of the nature of the Russian interest rate pass-through from February 2011 to November 11, 2016. The empirical results reveal a relatively low short-run interest pass-through of 0.662937 and an incomplete long-run interest rate pass-through of 0.826353. The bounds test results indicate no long-term relationship between countercyclical monetary policy and market rates. These empirical findings suggest that the Russian Central Bank has not been very effective in formulating and implementing its countercyclical monetary policy. In light of the formidable political and economic challenges faced by the Russian Federation over this sample period, the results are hardly surprising.