Long-run Growth Effects Research Articles

Oil Price and Long-run Economic Growth in Oil-importing Developing Countries

The recent spikes in oil prices are a significant setback for the world economy, which has already faced multiple challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is particularly concerning for developing countries as maintaining a sustained growth in real GDP is crucial for lifting their population out of poverty. While the short-run negative macroeconomic effects of a spike in oil prices are well established in the context of the developed world, the long-run growth effect has received little attention, especially in developing countries. Using the World Bank's development indicators database covering the period 1990 to 2020, this study aims to investigate the oil price-growth nexus in low and middle-income net oil-importing countries to shed light on how oil price increases could be a challenge for sustainable development. Specifically, we first set up a theoretical model to establish the relationship between growth in output per capita and oil price. Following the traditional growth regression approaches, we empirically estimate the causal effect of growth in oil prices on the economic growth of 65 net oil-importing developing countries using fixed effect panel IV regression methods. The empirical results confirm statistically significant negative effects of oil prices, indicating that a higher oil price reduces long-run economic growth in oil-importing developing countries. Our results on the other determinants of growth are consistent with the existing empirical growth literature. Oil-importing developing countries, therefore, must allocate resources towards alternative domestic energy sources, in addition to pursuing fuel efficiency and conservation strategies, to mitigate the negative effects of oil price fluctuations on their long-run economic output and uphold sustainable development.

Democracy Doesn't Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth

Abstract How substantial are the economic benefits from democratic regime change? We argue that democratisation is often not a discrete event but a two-stage process: autocracies enter into ‘episodes’ of political liberalisation which eventually culminate in regime change or not. To account for this chronology and the implicit counterfactual groups, we introduce a repeated-treatment difference-in-difference implementation capturing non-parallel trends and selection into treatment. We find that modelling regime change in two stages rather than a single event yields stronger long-run growth effects. Among democratizers, experiencing repeated episodes without regime change reduces growth in democracy whereas length of episode does not.

Labour Taxes, Market Size and Productivity Growth

Abstract How do changes in labour taxes affect innovation and aggregate productivity growth? To answer this question, we propose a quantitative, general equilibrium growth model featuring product and quality innovation with endogenous market structure, estimate its parameters and provide empirical validation for the propagation mechanism of labour tax changes. We find that a temporary cut in flat-rate labour taxes produces a growth acceleration in aggregate productivity, permanently increasing the path of real GDP per capita. Moreover, such permanent gains are sizeable even without long-run growth effects.

Short- and long-run growth effects of fiscal policy in Bangladesh

Short- and long-run growth effects of fiscal policy in Bangladesh

Early human capital: the driving force to economic growth in island economies

PurposeThe paper investigates into the human capital–economic growth nexus by arguing that investment in early education and health helps in achieving higher economic growth. Early investment in human capital matters most for economic growth than the increase in human capital over the years.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic vector error correction model (VECM) together with the impulse response function and variance decomposition are used on data for Mauritius from 1983 to 2019. The paper distinguishes between the short-run and the long-run effects of human capital measured by the pupil–teacher ratio in pre-primary education and life expectancy at birth.FindingsThis study’s findings reveal that investment in early education and health has contributed positively to growth performance. There is evidence for long-run growth effects arising from a positive shock in the education and health indicators.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to both the theoretical and empirical literature on the human capital–growth nexus. Mauritius as a natural resource poor small economy is an important case study as it has started early in investing in its people to promote economic growth.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2021-0674.

Democracy, growth, heterogeneity, and robustness

I motivate and empirically investigate differential long-run growth effects of democratisation across countries. While the existing literature recognises the potential for such heterogeneity, empirical implementations to date unanimously assume a common democracy-growth nexus across countries. Adopting novel methods for causal inference in policy evaluation I relax the homogeneity assumption. My results confirm that in the long-run democracy has a positive and significant average effect on per capita income, albeit at 10% this is at best half the magnitude of recent estimates in the literature. Guided by existing theories, additional analysis probes the patterns of the heterogeneous ‘democratic dividend’ across countries. Adopting two rule-based robustness exercises I furthermore demonstrate that, in contrast to recent contributions to the literature, my approach yields empirical findings that are robust to substantial changes to the sample.

Threshold Effects of Import Dependence on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study uses annual time series data spanning 1981–2018 to investigate the threshold effects of import dependence on economic growth in Nigeria. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) techniques are employed for estimation of a quadratic regression model to determine the nature of the relationship between aggregate import dependence and economic growth. It is found that the relationship is concave, that is, it follows an inverted-U shape. The conditional least squares estimator is thereafter employed to estimate the threshold model specified to determine the threshold level of import dependence. The study finds a threshold level of 26% for aggregate import dependence. Below this threshold, import dependence positively affects economic growth; above the threshold, the growth effect of import dependence is adverse. Furthermore, it is found that the long-run growth effect of Inflation is adverse, and investment is favourable to long-run economic growth. Based on these findings, the paper recommends efforts by Nigeria’s government to reduce import dependence below the estimated threshold of 26%, control inflation and encourage investment so as to enhance the growth of the nation’s economy.

The Causal Effect of Air Pollution on International Tourist Arrivals

This paper adopts two approaches in examining the effects of air pollution on foreign tourist visits, namely instrumental variables and long-run growth, using dataset of 141 countries in period 2010-2017. The log of value added of industry per capita is used as an instrumental variable for the log of mean annual exposure of PM2.5 air pollution. Long-run growth of international tourist arrivals and mean annual exposure of PM2.5 air pollution are used in analyzing the long-run growth effect. The findings are that the level of air pollution has a negative influence on the number of foreign tourists visiting a country. Another finding is that the tourist arrival-air pollution elasticity has negative value and less than one. 
 Keywords: Tourist, Air Pollution, IV, Long-Run Growth

AUTOMATION, STAGNATION, AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF A ROBOT TAX

We assess the long-run growth effects of automation in the overlapping generations framework. Although automation implies constant returns to capital and, thus, an AK production side of the economy, positive long-run growth does not emerge. The reason is that automation suppresses wage income, which is the only source of investment in the overlapping generations model. Our result stands in sharp contrast to the representative agent setting with automation, where sustained long-run growth is possible even without technological progress. Our analysis therefore provides a cautionary tale that the underlying modeling structure of saving/investment decisions matters for the derived economic impact of automation. In addition, we show that a robot tax has the potential to raise per capita output and welfare at the steady state. However, it cannot induce a takeoff toward positive long-run growth.

Export Composition and Long-run Economic Growth Impact: A Cointegration Analysis for ASEAN ‘Latecomer’ Economies

Export expansion can be a significant engine of economic growth for developing economies. The size of the growth effect of exports depends not only on volume but also on the sectoral composition of exports. By explicitly considering the sectoral export composition, this article examines over a 31-year period the long-run growth impact of exports in four transition and emerging economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), namely Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. More specifically, for each country, a long-run equilibrium analysis within a cointegration framework is conducted for three broad sectors (agriculture, mining/natural resources and manufacturing) as well as for 22 manufacturing industries during 1987–2017. The results indicate that there has been sizeable export expansion (especially in Vietnam), but export composition differs substantially across economies, which has an effect on the overall growth impact of the country’s exports. Clear evidence of export-led growth is found only for some sectors. Countries that rely heavily on primary goods have experienced relatively lower export-led growth. Export restructuring in manufacturing industries is associated with a larger long-run growth effect for a country’s exports. Our findings suggest that policies encouraging diversification away from traditional export sectors would be expected to lead to higher long-run growth effects of exports. Furthermore, our analysis implies a steady strengthening of export dynamism in ASEAN ‘latecomer’ economies and their rising significance in the global trade system. JEL Classification: F14, F43, F63, O11, O47

Did natural disasters affect population density growth in US counties?

This paper examines the long-run effects of natural disasters on population density growth across US counties during the period of 1960–2000. Detailed data for measuring the number and intensity of three types of major natural disasters (earthquake, tornado, and hurricane) are collected and incorporated into the empirical models. We do not find any significant adverse long-run growth effects of natural disasters. Weak evidence of minor tornadoes being positively correlated to growth is provided. Results also indicate that disasters have negligible indirect effects on county population density growth through impacting the county characteristics.

Are Merchandise Exports and FDI Inflows an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-10 Countries? New Evidence Using the Pooled Mean Group Estimation Method

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has made remarkable economic progress in terms of rapid economic growth and expanding export trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Theoretically speaking, both merchandise exports and FDI can be regarded as the key driving forces behind the ‘economic miracle’ of the regional economy. The major contribution of this study is that it is the first effort to empirically analyse the short-run and long-run growth effects of merchandise exports and FDI on the ASEAN-10 countries using time-series panel data. In this regard, this study aims to ascertain whether the spectacular regional growth is export- and FDI-driven, based on the ASEAN-10 panel data spanning from 1970 to 2016 using the pooled mean group (PMG) method. The findings show that merchandise exports are a key source of growth for the regional economy, attributable to the joint liberalisation efforts of the member states to expand trade and FDI. The study does not find evidence of FDI-led growth because the bulk of the FDI was invested in only a few ASEAN countries, and the minor FDI-recipient countries are at an early stage to benefit from the growth impacts of FDI, owing to lower absorptive capacity. JEL Classification: C51, F21, F23, O19

Precipitation and Economic Growth

As the ongoing process of global warming goes along with changes in both mean precipitation and precipitation extremes, the scientific interest in the effects of rainfall on economic prosperity has recently grown significantly. However, the few existing empirical studies of short-run growth effects of precipitation deliver inconclusive results. The medium- and long-run growth perspective is yet mostly unexplored. In this paper we deliver a systematic analysis of the short- and long-run growth effects of rainfall based on a large panel dataset covering more than 150 countries over the period of 1951 to 2013. We find strong and highly robust empirical evidence for long-lasting negative growth effects of rainfall shortages in poor and underdeveloped countries, which are not driven by the subsample of Sub Saharan African countries.

HUMAN CAPITAL AND INNOVATION IN A MONETARY SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH MODEL

This study explores the growth and welfare effects of monetary policy in a scale-invariant Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous human capital accumulation. We model money demand via a cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on research and development (R&D) investment. Our results can be summarized as follows. We find that an increase in the nominal interest rate leads to a decrease in R&D and human capital investment, which, in turn, reduces the long-run growth rates of technology and output. This result stands in stark contrast to the case of exogenous human capital accumulation in which the long-run growth rates of technology and output are independent of the nominal interest rate. Simulating the transitional dynamics, we find that the additional long-run growth effect under endogenous human capital accumulation amplifies the welfare effect of monetary policy. Decreasing the nominal interest rate from 10% to 0% leads to a welfare gain that is equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 2.82% (2.38%) under endogenous (exogenous) human capital accumulation.

The long-run growth effects of R&D policy

We assess the long-run growth effects of public policies to business R&D using data for US manufacturing industries and taking Schumpeterian growth theory as guideline. Our analysis indicates that R&D policy in the form of R&D tax credits fosters the rate of productivity growth over the long-term horizon. This effect is quantitatively important: increasing R&D tax credits by 10% raises the growth rate of labour productivity by 0.4% per year. We show that our findings are robust to controlling for several policy instruments, growth determinants and econometric issues. Moreover, the overall evidence is consistent with the predictions of second-generation fully-endogenous growth models.

R&D intensity, economic growth and firm-size growth: theory and practice

ABSTRACTThis article proposes a theoretical knowledge-driven horizontal research and development (R&D) endogenous-growth model to explain, for 10 innovative countries, the co-movement of the respective R&D intensity, economic growth and firm-size growth, by exploring short-medium-run and long-run growth effects. Bearing in mind some recent literature, we improve the R&D technology, by considering that R&D is more labour intensive through time as complexity increases, that the diffusion of designs is affected by coordination, organizational and transportation costs, and that a potential entrant will come up with the right idea is reduced because of the presence of a larger number of entrants. We show that when the economy is not initially in a steady state, it can take a saddle path towards the unique and locally saddle-path stable interior steady state. Both transitional-dynamics and steady-state behaviours of our theoretical model are then consistent with, respectively, the time-series and the cross-sectional evidence.

ECONOMIC GROWTH EFFECTS OF AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS

We develop a general equilibrium endogenous growth model where final goods are produced in either the exporter sector or the importer sector, in order to analyze the short, medium and long-run growth effects of an external demand shock induced by an international crisis, such as the current one. Depending on the policy response, such a shock might (or might not) severely affect competitiveness, wage inequality, the economic growth rate and the technological-knowledge bias. This bias controls the paths towards the new steady state. The model shows that countries with balanced public finances can accommodate the external shock and that the intervention should be prompt, as the delay is costly. Results appear to be supported by empirical evidence.

Do banking sector reforms cause economic growth?: Empirical evidence from Africa’s largest economy

This paper employed time series data on relevant empirical diagnostics to examine banking sector growth-led nexus within the context of Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. Diagnostics established stationarity of banking sector indicators and control variables at first difference. Findings showed no causal relationships between banking sector reforms and economic growth in the short-run and that, though liberalisation in particular did not Granger-cause growth of the economy during the study period, banking sector reforms caused growth of the real sector of the Nigerian economy. Hence, the caveat was that long-run growth effects of banking sector reforms on real sectors of economies are functions of policy targets of such banking or financial sectors reform strategies. Consequently, articulation of banking and financial sectors reforms within long-run rather than short-run perspectives and complementarity of liberalisation were recommended.

Long-Term Growth Effects of Natural Disasters - Empirical Evidence for Droughts

The ongoing process of climate change goes along with a higher frequency and/or severity of droughts. While the short-term growth consequences of droughts are comparatively well examined, little research has yet been devoted to the question whether and how droughts affect medium and long-term growth. However, knowledge on the growth dynamics triggered by natural disasters is an influential input factor for integrated assessment models which are used to evaluate climate policy measures. In this paper we deliver empirical support for the hypothesis of the existence of long-run growth effects of droughts. Based on a panel of 153 countries over the period of 1960 to 2002 and employing a truly exogenous drought indicator derived from rainfall data we find significantly negative long-term growth effects of droughts in both highly and less developed countries. We also deliver first empirical evidence on the channels through which droughts affect economic growth.

MONETARY POLICY AND ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURE IN A SCHUMPETERIAN ECONOMY

This study develops a monetary Schumpeterian model with endogenous market structure (EMS) to explore the effects of monetary policy on the number of firms, firm size, economic growth, and social welfare. EMS leads to different results from previous studies in which market structure is exogenous. In the short run, a higher nominal interest rate reduces the growth rates of innovation, output, and consumption and decreases firm size through reduction in labor supply. In the long run, a higher nominal interest rate reduces the equilibrium number of firms but has no steady-state effect on economic growth and firm size because of EMS. Although monetary policy has no long-run growth effect, increasing the nominal interest rate permanently reduces the levels of output, consumption, and employment. Taking transition dynamics into account, we find that welfare is decreasing in the nominal interest rate and the Friedman rule is optimal in this economy.