Long Period Of Low Activity Research Articles

Slip Rate Variation During the Last ∼210 ka on a Slow Fault in a Transpressive Regime: The Carrascoy Fault (Eastern Betic Shear Zone, SE Spain)

Fault slip rate variability over time is a crucial aspect for understanding how single faults interact among each other in fault systems. Several studies worldwide evidence the occurrence of high activity periods with clustering of events and synchronization among faults, followed by long periods of low activity (super-cycles). The increasing gathering of evidence of these phenomena is making fault hazard models quickly evolving and challenging seismic hazard assessment. However, in moderately active fault systems, a determination of fault slip rates can present large uncertainties, that have to be carefully considered when slip rate histories are determined. In this work, we estimate the variation of slip rate in the last ∼210 ky of the NE segment of the left-lateral reverse Carrascoy Fault, one of the main faults forming the Eastern Betic Shear Zone in SE Spain. We study two selected field sites where we have been able to measure offsets and date the sediments along with uncertainties. The first site shows a progressive discordance drawn by different calcretes developed on alluvial deposits. The vertical throw is calculated by modeling the growth of the discordance. The vertical slip rates are estimated dating the deformed calcretes by Uranium Series and by comparing them with a complete regional calcrete dates database compiled from the literature. On the second site, we analyze the geomorphology of different Upper Pleistocene alluvial fans, where three incised channels are offset by the fault, providing the net slip for the last ∼124 ky. We discuss the influence of different factors on the estimate of net slip rates using data from different sources. This analysis highlights the importance of determining an accurate fault geometry and how local data can provide misleading deformation rates. Our results suggest the existence of long periods of low activity disturbed by short high activity periods. Such a pattern of activity along time is defined for the first time in the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, with interesting implications in the seismogenic behavior of the rest of the slow faults within the region.

Correlated bursts and the role of memory range.

Inhomogeneous temporal processes in natural and social phenomena have been described by bursts that are rapidly occurring events within short time periods alternating with long periods of low activity. In addition to the analysis of heavy-tailed interevent time distributions, higher-order correlations between interevent times, called correlated bursts, have been studied only recently. As the underlying mechanism behind such correlated bursts is far from being fully understood, we devise a simple model for correlated bursts using a self-exciting point process with a variable range of memory. Whether a new event occurs is stochastically determined by a memory function that is the sum of decaying memories of past events. In order to incorporate the noise and/or limited memory capacity of systems, we apply two memory loss mechanisms: a fixed number or a variable number of memories. By analysis and numerical simulations, we find that too much memory effect may lead to a Poissonian process, implying that there exists an intermediate range of memory effect to generate correlated bursts comparable to empirical findings. Our conclusions provide a deeper understanding of how long-range memory affects correlated bursts.

Are dragon-king neuronal avalanches dungeons for self-organized brain activity?

Recent experiments have detected a novel form of spontaneous neuronal activity both in vitro and in vivo: neuronal avalanches. The statistical properties of this activity are typical of critical phenomena, with power laws characterizing the distributions of avalanche size and duration. A critical behaviour for the spontaneous brain activity has important consequences on stimulated activity and learning. Very interestingly, these statistical properties can be altered in significant ways in epilepsy and by pharmacological manipulations. In particular, there can be an increase in the number of large events anticipated by the power law, referred to herein as dragon-king avalanches. This behaviour, as verified by numerical models, can originate from a number of different mechanisms. For instance, it is observed experimentally that the emergence of a critical behaviour depends on the subtle balance between excitatory and inhibitory mechanisms acting in the system. Perturbing this balance, by increasing either synaptic excitation or the incidence of depolarized neuronal up-states causes frequent dragon-king avalanches. Conversely, an unbalanced GABAergic inhibition or long periods of low activity in the network give rise to sub-critical behaviour. Moreover, the existence of power laws, common to other stochastic processes, like earthquakes or solar flares, suggests that correlations are relevant in these phenomena. The dragon-king avalanches may then also be the expression of pathological correlations leading to frequent avalanches encompassing all neurons. We will review the statistics of neuronal avalanches in experimental systems. We then present numerical simulations of a neuronal network model introducing within the self-organized criticality framework ingredients from the physiology of real neurons, as the refractory period, synaptic plasticity and inhibitory synapses. The avalanche critical behaviour and the role of dragon-king avalanches will be discussed in relation to different drives, neuronal states and microscopic mechanisms of charge storage and release in neuronal networks.

Are the sunspots really vanishing?

Context:The elapsed solar cycle (23) ended with an exceptionally long period of low activity and with unprecedented low levels for various series of solar irradiance and particle flux measurements. This unpredicted evolution of solar activity raised multiple questions about a future decline of the solar cycles and launched a quest for precursor signs of this possible deep solar transition over the last decade.Aim:We present here a review and overall interpretation of most current diagnostics of solar cycle 23, including the recent disagreements that appeared among solar reference indices and standard solar-based geo-indices, the indication of a changed pattern of internal torsional waves (helioseismology) or the announced fading and magnetic weakening of sunspots.Methods:Based on a statistical analysis of detailed sunspot properties over the last 24 years, we complete the picture with new evidence of a strong global deficit of the smallest sunspots starting around 2000, in order to answer the question: are all sunspots about to disappear?Results:This global scale-dependent change in sunspot properties is confirmed to be real and not due to uncontrolled biases in some of the indices. It can also explain the recent discrepancies between solar indices by their different sensitivities to small and weak magnetic elements (small spots). The International Sunspot IndexRi, based on unweighted sunspot counts, proved to be particularly sensitive to this particular small-scale solar evolution.Conclusions:Our results and interpretation show the necessity to look backwards in time, more than 80 years ago. Indeed, the Sun seems to be actually returning to a past and hardly explored activity regime ending before the 1955–1995 Grand Maximum, which probably biased our current space-age view of solar activity.

Activity profile and physiological demands of top-class soccer assistant refereeing in relation to training status

To determine the movement patterns and physiological demands of top-class soccer assistant referees, we performed computerized time-motion analysis and measured heart rate and blood lactate concentration in 15 assistant referees during 22 competitive matches in the top Danish league. To relate match performance to the physical capability of the assistant referees, they performed a 3 2 30 m sprint protocol before and after matches and a laboratory treadmill test within 3 weeks of the games. The mean total distance covered by the top-class assistant referees was 7.28 (range 5.78-8.16) km, of which 1.15 (0.86-1.44) km was high-intensity running and 1.16 (0.12-2.34) km was sideways running. The amount of high-intensity running during a game was correlated with performance of repeated sprints (r = 0.80, P ≪ 0.05). Mean heart rate was 137 (117-159) beats · min-1 , corresponding to 73% (60-88%) of maximal heart rate and 65% (53-80%) of maximal oxygen uptake. Blood lactate concentration was 4.7 (1.6-11.0) and 4.8 (1.1-13.7) mmol · l -1 after the first and second half, respectively. Sprinting performance was poorer (P ≪ 0.05) after than before the games. The peak distance to the offside line was greater (P ≪ 0.05) in the second than the first half (7 - 1 vs 5 - 0 m). Our results show that: (1) top-class assistant soccer refereeing is characterized by brief intense bouts of forward and sideways running interspersed with long periods of low activity; (2) top-class soccer assistant referees have moderate aerobic energy production during games with episodes of high aerobic and anaerobic energy turnover; (3) assistant referees' performance of repeated sprints correlates with the amount of high-intensity running performed in a game; and (4) sprint performance decreases towards the end of a game, which appears to affect assistant referees' ability to keep up with play.

Aggregate Merger Activity: New Evidence on the Wave Hypothesis

The conventional opinion is that aggregate merger activity occurs in waves. An early proponent of this view was Nelson [13; 14] who concluded that merger behavior could be described by bursts of high activity followed by long periods of low activity. Numerous other authors have advanced similar interpretations of the data, including Scherer and Ross [16], Blair, Lane and Schary [1] and Golbe and White [7]. In fact, some have argued that merger waves remain an important but as yet not totally resolved puzzle (Brealey and Myers [2], Weston, Chung and Hoag [21]). Figure 1 presents a plot of the annual number of U.S. mergers over the period 1895-1994. It is not difficult to see from the figure how the popular belief about merger waves arose. The view that mergers come in waves has been the subject of considerable interest since Nelson's work first appeared.' However, the formal statistical evidence regarding the wave hypothesis is mixed. Shughart and Tollison [17] examine several time series of merger activity and generally do not reject the null hypotheses that each of the series examined follows either a random walk or an AR(1) process with first order autocorrelation close but not equal to 1.0. They argue that such processes are not consistent with the wave hypothesis. Golbe and White [7] on the other hand fit a sine wave based model to a similar aggregate merger series and conclude that there is a close correspondence between the data and their specification. In this paper we examine the issue of waves in merger activity through formal tests of the hypothesis that aggregate merger activity follows a stationary regime switching process. Specifically, we argue that shifts in an unobservable state variable ignite shifts in the characteristics of the process driving mergers. The appeal of this specification is threefold. First, it provides an intuitively plausible model which generates waves in merger activity. Second, as we show later, it provides an explanation for the results in Shughart and Tollison while at the same time providing an interpretation of the data which adds content to the findings of Golbe and White, thus reconciling the evidence within an intuitive framework. Third, the model also provides a foundation for further considerations of the factors which might ignite merger waves.2