Long-lived Supercell Research Articles

Polarimetric Radar Observations of a Long-Lived Supercell and Associated Tornadoes on 10–11 December 2021

Abstract We present environmental and polarimetric radar observations of a long-lived December supercell that tracked approximately 750 km from Arkansas to northern Kentucky. The storm was associated with two long-track EF4 tornadoes, one of which was among the longest-tracked tornadoes recorded in the United States. The supercell’s life cycle is documented from 2000 UTC 10 to 0700 UTC 11 December 2021, using data from five operational polarimetric weather radars. After convection initiation in central Arkansas, it took nearly 4 h for a supercell to develop. Afterward, the storm’s ZDR column and arc became anomalously large leading up to genesis of the first EF4 tornado. During this time, the storm’s environment had moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong deep-layer shear. A cell interaction at about 0200 UTC disrupted the supercell updraft, weakening the ZDR arc and column, and initiating the largest radar-implied hailfall event observed with this storm. The remnant circulation associated with the first EF4 tornado did not fully dissipate, and it appeared to merge with the low-level mesocyclone on the nose of a rear-flank downdraft surge likely initiated by the hailfall. It is hypothesized that this merger was important to the intensification of the storm’s second EF4 tornado, which lasted nearly 3 h and traveled approximately 267 km. During the second EF4 tornado the storm experienced decreasing CAPE and increasing storm relative helicity. Increasing interactions with other cells eventually weakened the storm, and its original updraft was obscured before the storm’s remnants dissipated in northern Kentucky. Significance Statement In December 2021, a long-lived supercell thunderstorm produced two long-track, violent tornadoes, including one that produced historic damage across western Kentucky. Radar observations indicate that, once the storm became a supercell, its updraft became anomalously large relative to similar storms studied prior. Simultaneously its storm-relative inflow strengthened markedly, supporting the first long-lived tornado. Interactions with a developing thunderstorm disrupted the supercell’s updraft, leading to hail fallout and updraft weakening. The remnant circulation associated with the first strong tornado merged with the supercell’s updraft and became a rotation source for the second long-track tornado, which persisted for nearly 3 h. Eventually interactions with other thunderstorms weakened the supercell.

Extreme Convective Rainfall and Flooding from Winter Season Extratropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

Abstract Extreme rainfall from extratropical cyclones and the distinctive hydrology of the winter season both contribute to flood extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region. In this study, we examine extreme rainfall and flooding from a winter season extratropical cyclone that passed through the eastern United States on 24/25 February 2016. Extreme rainfall rates during the 24/25 February 2016 time period were produced by supercell thunderstorms; we identify supercells through local maxima in azimuthal shear fields computed from Doppler velocity measurements from WSR-88D radars. Rainfall rates approaching 250 mm h−1 from a long-lived supercell in New Jersey were measured by a Parsivel disdrometer. A distinctive element of the storm environment for the 24/25 February 2016 storm was elevated values of convective available potential energy (CAPE). We also examine the climatology of atmospheric rivers (ARs)—like the February 2016 storm—based on an identification and tracking algorithm that uses Twentieth Century Reanalysis fields for the 66-yr period from 1950 to 2015. Climatological analyses suggest that AR frequency is increasing over the Mid-Atlantic region. An increase in AR frequency, combined with increasing frequency of elevated CAPE during the winter season over the Mid-Atlantic region, could result in striking changes to the climatology of extreme floods.

An observational analysis of two companion supercell storms over complex terrain

This article analyses two long-lived supercell thunderstorms formed on 11th May 2017 afternoon in a complex topographic area in northern Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). The objectives of this paper are (i) to document a case study that affected a mountainous region in the southern side of the Pyrenees, (ii) to describe thermodynamic and dynamic environmental conditions, (iii) to study how the topography affects the life cycle of both storm cells and (iv) to demonstrate the high correlation between Lightning Jump and radar parameters in complex terrain. ERA5 reanalysis was used to assess the synoptic framework and environmental storm conditions, whereas remote-sensing data (Doppler radar, satellite and lightning observations) and terrain characteristics were considered to study the evolution of both cells. Reanalysis data revealed some differences between preconvective environments for both thunderstorms, showing more favourable conditions for supporting supercells (i.e. stronger deep-layer shear) for the first thunderstorm than for the second one. The analysis suggests substantial interaction between topography and storm cells, influencing their internal dynamics and the development of mesocyclones. The results of this study contribute to enhance our understanding of supercell storms evolution on mountain areas and may be useful to increase the situational awareness of weather forecasters in future similar convective storm events over complex terrain regions.

Environmental Evolution of Long-Lived Supercell Thunderstorms in the Great Plains

AbstractLong-lived supercells (containing mesocyclones persisting for at least 4 hours) are relatively rare, but present significant risk for society as a result of their intensity and associated hazards over an extended time period. The persistence of a rotating updraft is tied to near-storm environmental characteristics; however, given the established prevalence of mesoscale environmental heterogeneity near severe convection, it is unknown to what extent those near-storm characteristics vary over the lifetime of a supercell, nor how quickly the storm responds to such changes. This study examines 147 long-lived, isolated supercells, focusing on the evolution of their near-storm environments using model analysis soundings generated each hour throughout the storm’s lifetime. Environmental variability is quantified via a series of common forecasting parameters, with impacts of measured changes related to production of severe weather and overall storm longevity. The diurnal and maturity-relative distributions of forecasting parameters are examined, along with comparisons among subsets of marginally vs. very long-lived supercells, as well as dissipation before vs. after sunset. The diurnal cycle is a dominant trend over the lifetime of all supercells, with attendant impacts to relevant thermodynamic and kinematic parameters, timing of storm initiation and dissipation, as well as severe weather production. Notably, changes in the near-storm environment are connected to supercell longevity and generation of severe weather reports. The long-term goal of the above analyses is to enhance short-term forecasts of supercells by better anticipating storm evolution as a result of environmental variations.

Meteorological Analyses of the Tri-State Tornado Event of March 1925

Severe thunderstorms occurred across portions of the central United States on 18 March 1925. The deadly, long-track Tri-State tornado was the most publicized storm event of 18 March and remains the most significant single tornado in the nation’s history. There has been only one formal paper regarding the Tri-State tornado and its meteorological setting. Results are presented from a recent study of the event that was done drawing upon all relevant Weather Bureau data that could be obtained. The storms of 18 March were associated with a rapidly moving, synoptic cyclone that was not unusually intense. There appear to be no outstanding aspects of the meteorological setting that would explain the extreme character of the Tri-State tornado. Surface analyses indicate: a) the tornado was produced by a long-lived supercell that developed very near the center of the cyclone, possibly at the intersection of a warm front and a distinct dryline; b) the south-to-north temperature gradient ahead of the cyclone was very pronounced due to cooling produced by early morning storms and precipitation; c) the tornadic supercell tracked east-northeastward very rapidly at about 60 to 65 mph (~28 ms-1), moving farther away from the cyclone with time; and d) the storm remained very close to the surface warm front. Previous reports concerning the tornado and its setting had inaccurate surface analyses and surface pressures, and incorrectly stated that the tornado had formed in cold air well west of the surface cyclone. As the supercell and dryline moved rapidly eastward, the northward movement of the warm front kept the tornadic supercell within a very favorable storm environment for several hours. Apparently, this consistent, time and space concatenation of the supercell, the warm front, and the dryline for more than three hours was extremely unusual.

Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell over Colorado and Wyoming, 22 May 2008

On 22 May 2008, a slow-moving, meridional trough led to widespread severe weather across the Great Plains, Front Range Urban Corridor of Colorado and Laramie Mountains of Wyoming. The most damaging storm developed near the Denver International Airport and quickly became tornadic. A large tornado occurred with this storm that was responsible for EF3 damage in the town of Windsor, CO. After some weakening, the storm intensified and produced large hail and at least one tornado from the Wyoming-Colorado border northwestward to Laramie, WY. As the storm moved through differing elevations (4700 to 8700 ft (1430 to 2650 m), it also encountered markedly different meteorological environments, making this tornadic event particularly interesting and rare. In addition to the official Storm Data, this study will provide supplementary storm documentation based on accounts of local residents. The key synoptic and mesoscale features as well as shear and instability parameters are presented, with an emphasis on observational data.
 Additionally, in order for forecasters to gain an understanding of the high-elevation severe storm environment, a comparison is made with relatively low-elevation environments. The importance of assessing the contributing factors to equivalent potential temperature is demonstrated. Recommendations are made for forecasting severe weather at high-elevation locations. Analysis of equivalent potential temperature is critical when assessing surface data over high-elevation areas, rather than arbitrary judgment (i.e., “it’s too cold”) based on surface temperature and dewpoint.

An Idealized Physical Model for the Severe Convective Storm Environmental Sounding

AbstractThis work develops a theoretical model for steady thermodynamic and kinematic profiles for severe convective storm environments, building off the two-layer static energy framework developed in work by Agard and Emanuel. The model is phrased in terms of static energy, and it allows for independent variation of the boundary layer and free troposphere separated by a capping inversion. An algorithm is presented to apply the model to generate a sounding for numerical simulations of severe convective storms, and the model is compared and contrasted with that of Weisman and Klemp. The model is then fit to a case-study sounding associated with the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak, and its potential utility is demonstrated via idealized numerical simulation experiments. A long-lived supercell is successfully simulated with the historical sounding but not the analogous theoretical sounding. Two types of example experiments are then performed that do simulate a long-lived supercell: 1) a semitheoretical experiment in which a portion of the theoretical sounding is modified to match the real sounding (low-level moisture); 2) a fully theoretical experiment in which a model physical parameter is modified (free-tropospheric relative humidity). Overall, the construction of this minimal model is flexible and amenable to additional modifications as needed. The model offers a novel framework that may be useful for testing how severe convective storms depend on the vertical structure of the hydrostatic environment, as well as for linking variability in these environments to the physical processes that produce them within the climate system.

What is the Intrinsic Predictability of Tornadic Supercell Thunderstorms?

AbstractA 25-member ensemble of relatively high-resolution (75-m horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulations of tornadic supercell storms is used to obtain insight on their intrinsic predictability. The storm environments contain large and directionally varying wind shear, particularly in the boundary layer, large convective available potential energy, and a low lifting condensation level. Thus, the environments are extremely favorable for tornadic supercells. Small random temperature perturbations present in the initial conditions trigger turbulence within the boundary layers. The turbulent boundary layers are given 12 h to evolve to a quasi–steady state before storms are initiated via the introduction of a warm bubble. The spatially averaged environments are identical within the ensemble; only the random number seed and/or warm bubble location is varied. All of the simulated storms are long-lived supercells with intense updrafts and strong mesocyclones extending to the lowest model level. Even the storms with the weakest near-surface rotation probably can be regarded as weakly tornadic. However, despite the statistically identical environments, there is considerable divergence in the finescale details of the simulated storms. The intensities of the tornado-like vortices that develop in the simulations range from EF0 to EF3, with large differences in formation time and duration also being exhibited. The simulation differences only can be explained by differences in how the initial warm bubbles and/or storms interact with turbulent boundary layer structures. The results suggest very limited intrinsic predictability with respect to predicting the formation time, duration, and intensity of tornadoes.

Analysis of a Case of Supercellular Convection over Bulgaria: Observations and Numerical Simulations

A long-lived supercell developed in Northwest Bulgaria on 15 May 2018 and inflicted widespread damage along its track. The first part of this article presents a detailed overview of the observed storm evolution. Doppler radar observations reveal that the storm acquired typical supercellular signatures and maintained reflectivity values in excess of 63 dBZ for more than 4 h. The thunderstorm was also analyzed through lightning observations that highlighted important characteristics of the overall supercell dynamics. In its second part, the study investigates the predictability of the severe weather outbreak. In the medium forecast ranges, the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble indicated the presence of favorable conditions for the development of deep moist convection 4 days prior to the event. A set of three convection-allowing ensemble simulations also demonstrated that the practical predictability of the supercell was approximately 12 h, which is considerably higher than some previously reported estimates. Nevertheless, the skill of the convective forecasts appears to be limited by the presence of typical model errors, such as the timing of convection initiation and the development of spurious convective activity. The relevance of these errors to the optimal ensemble size and to the design of future convection-allowing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is further discussed.

How Much Does “Backing Aloft” Actually Impact a Supercell?

Abstract Among forecasters and storm chasers, there is a common perception that hodographs with counterclockwise curvature or kinking in the midlevels (sometimes called backing aloft or veer–back–veer profiles) are unfavorable for long-lived supercells and tornadoes. This study reviews and then evaluates several possible explanations for the purported negative effect of backing aloft. As a controlled hypothesis test, simulated supercells are initiated within a range of idealized wind profiles, many of which include representative counterclockwise kinks or bends in their hodographs. In these experiments, the short-term, direct impacts of backing aloft upon supercell maintenance are generally small. Backing aloft does modify the component of vertical accelerations linked to updraft–shear interactions, but these changes generally occur well above the level of free convection (LFC), and they are generally offset by substantial upward accelerations attributable to other processes (e.g., within-storm rotation and positive buoyancy). In these simulations, the longevity of isolated supercells seems to be most directly hindered in environments with very low storm-relative helicity (SRH) or else (for a line of supercells) substantial along-line flow in the upper troposphere. Although these two disrupting properties can accompany backing aloft, they are neither universally nor exclusively associated with it. From the perspective of storm dynamics, it seems advisable to focus on SRH and along-line flow in the environment, rather than the presence (or absence) of backing aloft in the wind profile.

Application of a Lightning Data Assimilation Technique in the WRF-ARW Model at Cloud-Resolving Scales for the Tornado Outbreak of 24 May 2011

Abstract This study presents the assimilation of total lightning data to help initiate convection at cloud-resolving scales within a numerical weather prediction model. The test case is the 24 May 2011 Oklahoma tornado outbreak, which was characterized by an exceptional synoptic/mesoscale setup for the development of long-lived supercells with large destructive tornadoes. In an attempt to reproduce the observed storms at a predetermined analysis time, total lightning data were assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and analyzed via a suite of simple numerical experiments. Lightning data assimilation forced deep, moist precipitating convection to occur in the model at roughly the locations and intensities of the observed storms as depicted by observations from the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s three-dimensional National Mosaic and Multisensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)—i.e., NMQ—radar reflectivity mosaic product. The nudging function for the total lightning data locally increases the water vapor mixing ratio (and hence relative humidity) via a simple smooth continuous function using gridded pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) resolution (9 km) flash rate and simulated graupel mixing ratio as input variables. The assimilation of the total lightning data for only a few hours prior to the analysis time significantly improved the representation of the convection at analysis time and at the 1-h forecast within the convective permitting and convective resolving grids (i.e., 3 and 1 km, respectively). The results also highlighted possible forecast errors resulting from errors in the initial mesoscale thermodynamic variable fields. Although this case was primarily an analysis rather than a forecast, this simple and computationally inexpensive assimilation technique showed promising results and could be useful when applied to events characterized by moderate to intense lightning activity.

The Impact of Spatial Variations of Low-Level Stability on the Life Cycle of a Simulated Supercell Storm

Abstract This study reports on the dynamical evolution of simulated, long-lived right-moving supercell storms in a high-CAPE, strongly sheared mesoscale environment, which initiate in a weakly capped region and subsequently move into a cold boundary layer (BL) and inversion region before dissipating. The storm simulations realistically approximate the main morphological features and evolution of the 22 May 1981 Binger, Oklahoma, supercell storm by employing time-varying inflow lateral boundary conditions for the storm-relative moving grid, which in turn are prescribed from a parent, fixed steady-state mesoscale analysis to approximate the observed inversion region to the east of the dryline on that day. A series of full life cycle storm simulations have been performed in which the magnitude of boundary layer coldness and the convective inhibition are varied to examine the ability of the storm to regenerate and sustain its main updraft as it moves into environments with increasing convective stability. The analysis of the simulations employs an empirical expression for the theoretical speed of the right-forward-flank outflow boundary relative to the ambient, low-level storm inflow that is consistent with simulated cold-pool boundary movement. The theoretical outflow boundary speed in the direction opposite to the ambient flow increases with an increasing cold-pool temperature deficit relative to the ambient BL temperature, and it decreases as ambient wind speed increases. The right-moving, classic (CL) phase of the simulated supercells is supported by increasing precipitation content and a stronger cold pool, which increases the right-moving cold-pool boundary speed against the constant ambient BL winds. The subsequent decrease of the ambient BL temperature with eastward storm movement decreases the cold-pool temperature deficit and reduces the outflow boundary speed against the ambient winds, progressing through a state of stagnation to an ultimate retrogression of the outflow boundary in the direction of the ambient flow. Onset of a transient, left-moving low-precipitation (LP) phase is initiated as the storm redevelops on the retrograding outflow boundary. The left-moving LP storm induces compensating downward motions in the inversion layer that desiccates the inflow, elevates the cloudy updraft parcel level of free convection (LFC), and leads to the final storm decay. The results demonstrate that inversion-region simulations support isolated, long-lived supercells. Both the degree of stratification and the coldness of the ambient BL regulate the cold-pool intensity and the strength and capacity of the outflow boundary to lift BL air through the LFC and thus regenerate convection, resulting in variation of supercell duration in the inversion region of approximately 1–2 h. In contrast, horizontally homogeneous conditions lacking an inversion region result in the development of secondary convection from the initial isolated supercell, followed by rapid upscale growth after 3 h to form a long-lived mesoscale convective system.

Supercell Tornadogenesis over Complex Terrain: The Great Barrington, Massachusetts, Tornado on 29 May 1995

Abstract The process of tornadogenesis in complex terrain environments has received relatively little research attention to date. Here, an analysis is presented of a long-lived supercell that became tornadic over complex terrain in association with the Great Barrington, Massachusetts (GBR), F3 tornado of 29 May 1995. The GBR tornado left an almost continuous 50–1000-m-wide damage path that stretched for ∼50 km. The apparent rarity of significant tornadogenesis in rough terrain from a supercell well documented in operational Doppler radar motivated this case study. Doppler radar observations showed that the GBR supercell possessed a midlevel mesocyclone well prior to tornadogenesis and that the mesocyclone intensified as it crossed the eastern edge of New York’s Catskill Mountains and entered the Hudson Valley. Tornadogenesis occurred as the GBR mesocyclone crossed the Hudson Valley and ascended the highlands to the east. Subsequently, the mesocyclone weakened as it approached the Taconic Range in western Massachusetts before it intensified again as it moved downslope into the Housatonic Valley where it was associated with the GBR tornado. Because of a dearth of significant mesoscale surface and upper-air observations, the conclusions and inferences presented in this paper must be necessarily limited and speculative. What data were available suggested that on a day when the mesoscale environment was supportive of supercell thunderstorm development, according to conventional indicators of wind shear and atmospheric stability, topographic configurations and the associated channeling of ambient low-level flows conspired to create local orographic enhancements to tornadogenesis potential. Numerical experimentation is needed to address these inferences, speculative points, and related issues raised by the GBR case study.

An Observational Examination of Long-Lived Supercells. Part II: Environmental Conditions and Forecasting

Abstract The local and larger-scale environments of 184 long-lived supercell events (containing one or more supercells with lifetimes ≥4 h; see Part I of this paper) are investigated and subsequently compared with those from 137 moderate-lived events (average supercell lifetime 2–4 h) and 119 short-lived events (average supercell lifetime ≤2 h) to better anticipate supercell longevity in the operational setting. Consistent with many previous studies, long-lived supercells occur in environments with much stronger 0–8-km bulk wind shear than what is observed for short-lived supercells; this strong shear leads to significant storm-relative winds in the mid- to upper levels for the longest-lived supercells. Additionally, the bulk Richardson number falls into a relatively narrow range for the longest-lived supercells—ranging mostly from 5 to 45. The mesoscale to synoptic-scale environment can also predispose a supercell to be long or short lived, somewhat independent of the local environment. For example, long-lived supercells may occur when supercells travel within a broad warm sector or else in close proximity to mesoscale or larger-scale boundaries (e.g., along or near a warm front, an old outflow boundary, or a moisture/buoyancy axis), even if the deep-layer shear is suboptimal. By way of contrast, strong atmospheric forcing can result in linear convection (and thus shorter-lived supercells) in a strongly sheared environment that would otherwise favor discrete, long-lived supercells.

An Observational Examination of Long-Lived Supercells. Part I: Characteristics, Evolution, and Demise

Abstract Observations of supercells and their longevity across the central and eastern United States are examined, with the primary focus on understanding the properties of long-lived supercells (defined as supercells lasting ≥4 h). A total of 224 long-lived supercells, occurring in 184 separate events, are investigated. These properties are compared with those of short-lived supercells (lifetimes ≤2 h) to determine the salient differences between the two classifications. A key finding is that long-lived supercells are considerably more isolated and discrete than short-lived supercells; as a result, the demise of a long-lived supercell (i.e., the end of the supercell phase) is often signaled by a weakening of the storm’s circulation and/or a rapid dissipation of the thunderstorm. In contrast, short-lived supercells commonly experience a demise linked to storm mergers and convective transitions (e.g., evolution to a bow echo). Also noteworthy, 36% of the long-lived supercell events were associated with strong or violent tornadoes (F2–F5), compared with only 8% for the short-lived supercell events. Evolutionary characteristics of long-lived supercells vary geographically across the United States, with the largest contrasts between the north-central United States and the Southeast. For example, 86% of the long-lived supercells across the north-central United States were isolated for most of their lifetime, whereas only 35% of those in the Southeast displayed this characteristic. Not surprisingly, the convective mode was discrete for 70% of the long-lived supercell events across the north-central United States, compared with 39% for the Southeast.

An objectively selected case study of a heavy rain event in the Mediterranean Basin: A diagnosis using numerical simulation

The heavy rain event of November 2001 in the western Mediterranean area is diagnosed using the mesoscale model MM5. The flash flood episode is identified in the second mode of a Singular Value Decomposition Analysis applied to 300 hPa geopotential height and regional precipitation. Synoptically, the episode is characterised by the presence of a long-lived Omega blocking geopotential pattern. Strong similarity with the obtained statistical mode is found, highlighting the strength of the synoptic variables-regional precipitation link. A set of mesoscale numerical simulations using MM5 is performed to investigate the mechanisms responsible for the convection development through several output diagnoses. A potential vorticity evolution shows how dry air masses are extruded from the stratospheric levels, promoting strong cyclonic circulation at all levels. A deep vertical column of high relative humidity over the Algerian coastline keeps the few and geographically confined convective cells responsible for the heavy precipitation over different zones at the study area. The study of mesoscale environment parameters shows enhanced conditional instability through a deep troposphere layer. Strong vertical wind shear favours conditions to allow organization of long-lived supercell convective structures, evolving to mesoscale convective systems.

Forcing and Organization of Convective Systems

Perhaps as in no other area of meteorology, radar has proven to be the key tool in modern detection and forecasting, as well as in identifying and understanding the physics, of convective storms and convective systems. From its initial deployment as a research tool following the second World War [see the excellent review of the history of radar meteorology in chapter 1 of the AMS monograph Radar in Meteorology, edited by Dave Atlas (Fletcher 1990)], radar has played a fundamental role in increasing our understanding of the forces that initiate and organize severe storms and larger convective systems that are composed of a conglomeration of convective storm cells. Early radar observations were primarily descriptive and showed the tremendous variety of types and sizes of precipitating moist convection (see reviews by Browning 1990; Parsons et al. 1990; Ray 1990; Carbone et al. 1990b; Smull 1995). Examples of types include single convective storms, longer-lived multicellular storms, fast-moving squall lines, slower-moving linear and nonlinear convective systems, and long-lived supercell storms. Although this review emphasizes the role played by radar in observational studies of convective storms and systems, the ever-increasing use of numerical models in explaining the dynamics of precipitating convective systems has resulted in the inclusion of many of those studies. Moreover, we believe numerical models will play an increasing role in extending our understanding of these phenomena by providing information on variables and in areas that are unobserved by radar and other instruments. Likewise, the accuracy of simulations that involve unavoidable parameterization of unresolved or poorly understood physics must be verified against data from the same observing systems.

The Tristate Hailstorm: The Most Costly on Record

Abstract The most damaging hailstorm ever recorded moved from eastern Kansas to southern Illinois during an 8-h period on 10 April 2001, depositing 2.5- to 7.5-cm-diameter hailstones along a 585-km path. A classic long-lived supercell storm was the cause of the record hailfalls. The record-large hailswath size, large and often windblown hailstones, and movement over portions of the St. Louis and Kansas City urban areas led to $1.5 billion in insured losses. This tristate hailstorm and other adjacent hailstorms collectively created $1.9 billion in insured losses in a 2-day period, becoming the ninth most costly weather catastrophe in the United States since property insurance records began in 1949.

Recognition of Negative Mesoscale Factors for Severe-Weather Potential: A Case Study

The case of 7–8 June 1998 in eastern New Mexico and western Texas is used to illustrate the challenge of recognizing possible negative effects created by mesoscale processes. In this case, a region of cloud-covered cool air (which was associated with early thunderstorms) may have limited the tornadic potential of severe convection. Although the tornado potential in the synoptic situation was not highly portentous, supercell storms did eventually form, one of which was persistent for many hours. There were only relatively brief and weak tornadoes reported from this storm early in its life, despite its persistence as a long-lived supercell that produced a long swath of large hail. In this case, the development of thunderstorms east of the threat area early in the day maintained cloudiness that apparently inhibited the destabilization of the surface-based air mass over which the afternoon thunderstorms eventually moved. The persistent supercell formed on the dryline but overrode this mesoscale cool air mass relatively soon after it developed. It was able to persist as an elevated supercell despite the relatively stable near-surface air mass, but its tornadic production may have been limited by its interaction with this mesoscale feature. Implications for operational forecasting and warnings are discussed.

Influences of the Local Environment on Supercell Cloud-to-Ground Lightning, Radar Characteristics, and Severe Weather on 2 June 1995*

Abstract Radar, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning characteristics, and storm reports were documented for 20 long-lived supercell thunderstorms that occurred during a 6-h period in the west Texas Panhandle on 2–3 June 1995. These thunderstorms occurred in proximity to a preexisting mesoscale outflow boundary. Storms that remained on the warm side of the mesoscale outflow boundary and storms that formed directly on the boundary tended to produce weaker low-level rotation, lower maximum heights for the 40-dBZ echo top, and had the largest negative CG flash rates. The largest negative flash rate was produced as each storm was gradually weakening. In contrast, out of 11 boundary-crossing storms, several important radar-based measurands increased unambiguously after storms crossed the boundary: 40-dBZ echo-top height in 5 cases, radar reflectivity above the environmental freezing level in 6 cases, and low-level mesocyclone strength in 9 cases. Trends of the first two measurands were ambiguous for 4 of 11 cases aff...