Logistic Regression For Risk Research Articles

Less Irradiation to Lymphocyte-Related Organs Reduced the Risk of G4 Lymphopenia in Esophageal Cancer: Re-Analysis of Prospective Trials.

This study aimed to explore the relationship between irradiation of lymphocyte-related organs at risk (LOARs) and lymphopenia during definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (dCCRT) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Cases of ESCC patients who received dCCRT from 2 prospective clinical trials were identified. To find its correlation with survival outcomes, grades of absolute lymphocyte counts (ALCs) nadir during radiotherapy were recorded following COX analysis. Associations of lymphocytes at nadir and dosimetric parameters including relative volumes of spleen and bone marrow receiving 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50Gy (V0.5, V1, V2, V3, V5, V10, V20, V30, and V50), and effective dose to circulating immune cells (EDIC) were examined by logistic risk regression analysis. The cutoffs of dosimetric parameters were determined by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). A total of 556 patients were included. The incidences of grades 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 (G4) lymphopenia during dCCRT were 0.2%, 0.5%, 9.7%, 59.7%, and 29.8%, respectively. Their median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) time were 50.2 and 24.3 months, respectively; the incidence of local recurrence and distant metastasis were 36.6% and 31.8%, respectively. Patients once suffering from G4 nadir during radiotherapy had unfavorable OS (HR, 1.28; P = .044) and a higher incidence of distant metastasis (HR, 1.52; P = .013). Furthermore, patients with EDIC ≤8.3Gy plus spleen V0.5 ≤11.1% and bone marrow V10 ≤33.2% were strongly associated with lower risk of G4 nadir (OR, 0.41; P = .004), better OS (HR, 0.71; P = .011) and lower risk of distant metastasis (HR, 0.56; P = .002). Smaller relative volumes of spleen V0.5 and bone marrow V10 plus lower EDIC were jointly prone to reduce the incidence of G4 nadir during definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy. This modified therapeutic strategy could be a significant prognostic factor for survival outcomes in ESCC.

Clinical value of GRACE score combined with DFR in predicting short-term prognosis of patients undergoing early PCI after thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction.

The aim of the study was to investigate the clinical value of the Global Registry of Arterial Events in Acute Coronary Syndromes (GRACE) score combined with the D-dimer/fibrinogen ratio (DFR) in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) early after thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). A total of 102 patients who underwent PCI early after thrombolysis for AMI during April 2020 to January 2022 in our hospital were picked as study subjects. These subjects were assigned as the good prognosis group (without adverse cardiovascular events) and poor prognosis group (with adverse cardiovascular events) according to whether adverse cardiovascular events occurred during hospitalization and follow-up. Changes in GRACE scores and DFR levels in patients with different prognoses were analyzed. The GRACE score and DFR level of patients with different prognosis were analyzed. The clinic pathological characteristics were collected, and the risk factors for poor prognosis of AMI patients were analyzed by logistic risk regression; ROC curve was used to analyze the prognostic value of GRACE score combined with DFR in early PCI patients after AMI thrombolysis. Compared with the good prognosis group, the GRACE score and DFR level in the poor prognosis group were much higher (p<0.001). Significant differences existed in blood pressure, ejection fraction, number of diseased branches, and Killip grading between the patients with good prognosis and those with poor prognosis (p<0.05). There existed no significant difference in clinical medication between the patients with good prognosis and those with poor prognosis (p>0.05). Logistic multivariate analysis indicated that GRACE score, DFR, ejection fraction, number of lesion branches, and Killip grade were all risk factors influencing the prognosis of patients undergoing early PCI after thrombolysis in AMI (p<0.05). The ROC curve was established and the area under the curve (AUC) of GRACE score, DFR, and combined detection were 0.815, 0.783, and 0.894, respectively, and the sensitivity and specificity were 80.24%, 60.42%, 83.71%, 66.78%, 91.42% and 77.83%, respectively. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of combined detection were higher than those of the two alone and had a higher predictive value for the short-term prognosis of patients. The GRACE score combined with DFR was of great value in diagnosing the short-term prognosis of patients undergoing PCI early after thrombolysis for AMI. Furthermore, the GRACE score, DFR, ejection fraction, number of lesion branches, and Killip classification were all important factors influencing the short-term prognosis of patients, which were of great significance in determining the prognosis of patients.

Mortality risk in adults with intellectual disabilities and epilepsy: an England and Wales case-control study.

People with epilepsy (PWE) and people with intellectual disabilities (ID) both live shorter lives than the general population and both conditions increase the risk of death further. We aimed to measure associations between certain risk factors for death in PWE and ID. A retrospective case-control study was conducted in ten regions in England and Wales. Data were collected on PWE registered with secondary care ID and neurology services between 2017 and 2021. Prevalence rates of neurodevelopmental, psychiatric and medical diagnoses, seizure frequency, psychotropic and antiseizure medications (ASM) prescribed, and health activity (epilepsy reviews/risk assessments/care plans/compliance etc.) recorded were compared between the two groups. 190 PWE and ID who died were compared with 910 living controls. People who died were less likely to have had an epilepsy risk assessment but had a greater prevalence of genetic conditions, older age, poor physical health, generalized tonic-clonic seizures, polypharmacy (not ASMs) and antipsychotic use. The multivariable logistic regression for risk of epilepsy-related death identified that age over 50, medical condition prevalence, antipsychotic medication use and the lack of an epilepsy review in the last 12months as associated with increased risk of death. Reviews by psychiatrists in ID services was associated with a 72% reduction in the odds of death compared neurology services. Polypharmacy and use of antipsychotics may be associated with death but not ASMs. Greater and closer monitoring by creating capable health communities may reduce the risk of death. ID services maybe more likely to provide this holistic approach.

Postoperative Clostridium difficile infection has a differential procedure-specific association with surgical outcomes in contemporary United States practice.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has made the prevention of in-hospital Clostridium difficile infection a priority. However, whether there is a differential impact of Clostridium difficile on surgical patients remains undefined. Therefore, we quantified the procedure-specific association between postoperative Clostridium difficile and surgical outcomes to define opportunities for targeted quality improvement. We studied patients undergoing major cardiac, vascular, general, or oncologic procedures using the Vizient database from 2015 to 2019. Our primary exposure was postoperative Clostridium difficile infection. Our primary outcomes were postoperative length of stay, hospitalization cost, readmission, and in-hospital mortality. We used linear and logistic regression for risk adjustment. The incidence of Clostridium difficile infection was 1.6% (n= 6,506/397,750). Patients with Clostridium difficile were older, more comorbid, and more frequently underwent urgent surgery. The median postoperative length of stay was 7 days (interquartile range: 5-11 days), and it was 66% longer among those with Clostridium difficile (P < .001). Similarly, the median hospitalization cost was $31,000 (interquartile range: $20,000-$49,000), and it was 51% greater among patients with Clostridium difficile (P < .001). Postoperative Clostridium difficile was associated with more readmissions after coronary artery bypass grafting, small bowel resection, colectomy, gastrectomy, pancreatectomy, and infrainguinal bypass (adjusted odds ratio range: 1.4-1.7), but not after open aneurysm repair, suprainguinal bypass, or esophagectomy. Clostridium difficile was associated with increased mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting, small bowel resection, colectomy, and infrainguinal bypass (adjusted odds ratio range: 1.3-2.7), but not after open aneurysm repair, suprainguinal bypass, esophagectomy, gastrectomy, or pancreatectomy. Postoperative Clostridium difficile infection was differentially associated with increased length of stay, cost, readmissions, and mortality across specific procedures. This was most apparent after infrainguinal bypass, small bowel resection, colectomy, and coronary artery bypass grafting. Accordingly, a targeted Clostridium difficile reduction effort for these procedures may offer a more effective approach toward reducing infection rates.

One-year mortality of emergency department patients with substance-induced psychosis.

ObjectivesPsychosis is a well established complication of non-prescription drug use. We sought to measure the 1-year mortality of emergency department patients with substance-induced psychosis (SIP).MethodsThis study was a multi-centre, retrospective electronic medical records review of patients presenting to the ED with substance-induced psychosis (SIP). We interrogated the hospital ED database from Jan 1, 2018 and Jan 1, 2019 to identify consecutive patients. All patients were followed for one year from index visit, and classified as alive/dead at that time. Patients were included in the study if they met the following criteria: 1) ED discharge diagnosis of psychosis NOS and a positive urine drugs of abuse screen (UDAS) or the patient verbally endorsed drug use, or 2) Mental disorder due to drug use and “disorganized thought”, “bizarre behavior” or “delusional behavior” documented in the chart and one or more of the following criteria: a) arrival with police, b) mental health certification, c) physical restraints, d) chemical restraints. We excluded patients who were not British Columbia residents, since we were unable to ascertain if they were alive or dead at 1 year from their index ED visit. Primary statistical analysis was logistic regression for risk of death in 1 year, based on plausible risk factors, selected a priori.ResultsWe identified 813 presentations for SIP (620 unique patients). The median age of the entire cohort was 35 years (IQR 28–44), and 69.5% (n = 565) were male. Thirty five patients (4.3%; 95% CI 3.2–5.9) had died one year after their initial presentation to the ED for SIP. Separate multivariable logistic regression analyses, controlling for age, demonstrated schizophrenia (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.8–11.1) significantly associated with increased 1-year mortality.ConclusionsIn our study of patients presenting to the ED with SIP, the 1-year mortality was 4.3%. Controlling for age, schizophrenia was a notable risk factor for increased 1-year mortality.

Enterocolitis Is a Risk Factor for Bowel Perforation in Neonates With Hirschsprung's Disease: A Retrospective Multicenter Study.

Background and AimWe evaluated the clinical features of neonatal Hirschsprung's disease (HD)-associated bowel perforation (perforated HD) and investigated risk factors related to it.MethodsWe retrospectively collected clinical data of neonates (<1 month of age) with perforated HD from multicenters in China from January 2006 to December 2019. A total of 142 patients (6.7%) with perforated HD were enrolled in the study. A 1:2 matching method was used to compare the clinical information of HD patients with and without bowel perforation during the neonatal period. The risk factors for bowel perforation were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic risk regression analyses.ResultsPerforation site was present in the proximal ganglionic bowel in 101 (71.1%) cases and the distal aganglionosis segment in 41 (28.9%) cases. Adjacent marginal tissue from the perforated intestine revealed varying degrees of inflammatory cell infiltration, and the severity of enterocolitis was higher in the proximal ganglionic bowel than in the distal aganglionosis segment (p < 0.05). In the univariable and multivariable logistic analyses, clinical symptoms, such as vomiting (adjusted OR = 2.06, 95% CI: 2.01–2.88, p < 0.05), and inflammation index in hematologic tests, such as neutrophil proportion (adjusted OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05–1.33, p < 0.05) and CRP (adjusted OR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.01–3.27, p < 0.05) were associated with increased risk for perforated HD.ConclusionClinical Hirschsprung disease-associated enterocolitis (HAEC) highly correlated with perforated HD. Timely treatment of HAEC should be appropriate therapeutic approaches to prevent perforated HD.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Prediction in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study Cohort: A Machine Learning Approach.

BackgroundPrediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in persons with known risk factors remain a challenge and is an urgent unmet need, considering projected increases in HCC incidence and mortality in the US. We aimed to use machine learning techniques to identify a set of demographic, lifestyle, and health history information that can be used simultaneously for population-level HCC risk prediction.MethodsData from 377,065 participants of the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, among whom 647 developed HCC over 16 years of follow-up, were analyzed. The sample was randomly divided into independent training (60%) and validation (40%) sets. We evaluated 123 participant characteristics and tested 15 different machine learning algorithms for robustness in predicting HCC risk. Separately, we evaluated variables selected from multivariable logistic regression for risk prediction.ResultsThe random under-sampling boosting (RUSBoost) algorithm performed best during model testing. Fourteen participant characteristics were selected for risk prediction based on differences between cases and controls (Bonferroni-corrected p-values <0.0004) and from the most frequently used variables in the initial two decision trees of the RUSBoost learner trees. A predictive model based on the 14 variables had an AUC of 0.72 (sensitivity=0.68, specificity=0.63) and independent validation AUC of 0.65 (sensitivity=0.68, specificity=0.63). A subset of 9 variables identified through logistic regression also had an AUC of 0.72 (sensitivity=0.67, specificity=0.63) and independent validation AUC of 0.65 (sensitivity=0.70, specificity=0.61).ConclusionPopulation-level HCC risk prediction can be performed with a machine learning-based algorithm and could inform strategies for improving HCC risk reduction in at-risk groups.

Risk model based on MRI fusion biopsy characteristics predicts biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

To determine the prostate cancer biochemical recurrence-related fusion biopsy characteristics before radical surgery and to establish the risk prediction model of biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer. Three hundred and four patients undergoing radical surgery for prostate cancer at Huadong Hospital affiliated to Fudan University between 2009 and 2020 for preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before biopsy with suspicious prostate cancer lesions. Each case was followed by a 10 + x needle combination of targeted biopsy (intentional or robotic fusion) with systematic biopsy. Prostate-specific antigen levels were measured at 1, 3, and 6 months postoperatively, followed by reexamination every 6 months. Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, univariate and multivariate analysis by Cox, and Logistic risk regression models. Higher Prostate Imaging Reporting And Data System (PI-RADS) scores (p < 0.001), suspicious extracapsular invasion (p < 0.001), and seminal vesicle invasion (p < 0.001) on MRI, the largest lesion diameter on MRI (p = 0.006), higher biopsy International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grade group (p < 0.001) related to higher biochemical recurrence rates, higher pathological staging (p < 0.001), and a greater probability of local lymph node metastasis (p < 0.001). We accurately predicted the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical surgery based on preoperative features including the long diameter of the largest MRI lesion more than 23 mm, seminal vesicle invasion on MRI, and targeted fusion biopsy ISUP grade >3 Risk stratified classification (AUC = 0.729, p < 0.001). In our cohort, this risk stratification had a larger area under the curve than predictive models based only on magnetic resonance parameters and traditional risk scores. In this cohort, seminal vesicle invasion on MRI, the long diameter of the largest MRI lesion, and targeted fusion biopsy ISUP grade grope are significantly predictive of pathologic features and biochemical recurrence after prostate surgery. The risk stratification integrating the three parameters could better predict the biochemical recurrence than the traditional model.

A longitudinal observational retrospective study on risk factors and predictive model of PICC associated thrombosis in cancer patients

To analyze the incidence of PICC associated venous thrombosis. To predict the risk factors of thrombosis. To validate the best predictive model in predicting PICC associated thrombosis. Consecutive oncology cases in 341 who initially naive intended to be inserted central catheter for chemotherapy, were recruited to our dedicated intravenous lab. All patients used the same gauge catheter, Primary endpoint was thrombosis formation, the secondary endpoint was infusion termination without thrombosis. Two patients were excluded. 339 patients were divided into thrombosis group in 59 (17.4%) and non-thrombosis Group in 280 (82.6%), retrospectively. Tumor, Sex, Age, Weight, Height, BMI, BSA, PS, WBC, BPC, PT, D-dimer, APTT, FIB, Smoking history, Location, Catheter length, Ratio and Number as independent variables were analyzed by Fisher’s scoring, then Logistic risk regression, ROC analysis and nomogram was introduced. Total incidence was 17.4%. Venous mural thrombosis in 2 (3.4%), “fibrin sleeves” in 55 (93.2%), mixed thrombus in 2 (3.4%), symptomatic thrombosis in 2 (3.4%), asymptomatic thrombosis in 57 (96.6%), respectively. Height (χ² = 4.48, P = 0.03), D-dimer (χ² = 37.81, P < 0.001), Location (χ² = 7.56, P = 0.006), Number (χ² = 43.64, P < 0.001), Ratio (χ² = 4.38, P = 0.04), and PS (χ² = 58.78, P < 0.001), were statistical differences between the two groups analyzed by Fisher’s scoring. Logistic risk regression revealed that Height (β = −0.05, HR = 0.95, 95%CI: 0.911–0.997, P = 0.038), PS (β = 1.07, HR = 2.91, 95%CI: 1.98–4.27, P < 0.001), D-dimer (β0.11, HR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.045–1.200, P < 0.001), Number (β = 0.87, HR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.619–3.512, P < 0.001) was independently associated with PICC associated thrombosis. The best prediction model, D-dimer + Number as a novel co-variable was validated in diagnosing PICC associated thrombosis before PICC. Our research revealed that variables PS, Number, D-dimer and Height were risk factors for PICC associated thrombosis, which were slightly associated with PICC related thrombosis, in which, PS was the relatively strongest independent risk factor of PICC related thrombosis.

Pregnancy and childhood exposure to residential traffic noise and overweight at 7 years of age

BackgroundExposure to road traffic noise has been associated with adiposity and diabetes in adults. The suggested pathways have been through sleep disturbance and stress. Children may be particularly susceptible to noise induced sleep disturbance and stress and the effects hereof. ObjectivesTo examine the association between traffic noise exposure during pregnancy and early childhood and adiposity in children. MethodsWe identified 40,974 singletons from the Danish National Birth Cohort with parentally given questionnaire information on weight and height at 7-years of age. Road and railway traffic noise were modeled at all historical addresses and expressed as time-weighted means for two exposure periods (pregnancy and childhood). Adiposity was assessed using BMI z-scores and a dichotomous measure of childhood overweight based on age and sex specific cut-offs. Associations were analyzed using linear regression for BMI z-scores and logistic regression for risk of childhood overweight, adjusting for socioeconomic position, maternal BMI, maternal smoking, maternal age, parity and degree of urbanization. ResultsWe found both pregnancy and childhood exposure to road traffic noise to be associated with a higher risk for childhood overweight (odds ratio (OR)=1.06 per 10dB, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00–1.12 for exposure during pregnancy and OR=1.06 per 10dB, 95% CI: 0.99–1.12 for childhood exposure). There were no associations between road traffic noise and BMI z-scores. We found no associations between railway noise and adiposity. ConclusionsWe found suggestions of a positive association between road traffic noise and risk of overweight in 7-years old children.

Newborn Adipokines and Birth Outcomes.

Adipokines can serve as a measure of adipose tissue activity. Although birthweight correlates with neonatal adiposity, findings for cord blood levels of adipokines and birth outcomes have been conflicted. Therefore, we determined the cross-sectional associations between adipokines measured in newborn dried blood spots (DBS) and birth outcomes. The Upstate KIDS study enrolled mothers and infants from 2008 to 2010. Among infants whose parents consented to the use of residual DBS from newborn screening, 2397 singletons and 1240 twins had adipokine measurements from the Human Obesity Panel (R&D Systems) by Luminex. Odds ratios were estimated by multivariable logistic regression for risk of birth outcomes of preterm delivery (<37 weeks for singletons, <32 for twins) and small-for-gestational age (SGA <10th for singletons and <3rd for twins age- and sex-specific percentiles) by adipokine quintiles. Generalised estimating equations were applied to account for correlations between twins. Singletons in the lowest compared with the highest quintile of adiponectin were more likely preterm (adjusted odds ratio 3.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.99, 5.34) and SGA (1.81; [95% CI 1.18, 2.77]). Similar associations were observed among twins. Resistin was associated with preterm birth (Q1 vs. Q5: 2.08; [95% CI 1.20, 3.62]) only among singletons. Adipsin had inconsistent associations after adjustment. This large population-based study demonstrates that newborn DBS-measured adipokines are associated with birth outcomes, particularly preterm birth and SGA among those with lower adiponectin levels regardless of plurality.

Arteriovenous fistula geometry in hybrid recanalisation of post-thrombotic venous obstruction.

Post-thrombotic obstruction can be adequately treated by percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting. When post-thrombotic trabeculations extend below the femoral confluence, proper inflow can be facilitated by endophlebectomy and creation of an arteriovenous fistula. The aim of this study was to investigate whether it is more favourable to place the arteriovenous fistula at the cranial or caudal end of the endophlebectomy to prevent stenosis or occlusion. We retrospectively analysed the clinical data of all patients who underwent a hybrid procedure in our two centres. Demographics, interventional details and post-operative imaging were collected. Data on 42 limbs with cranially and 23 limbs with caudally placed arteriovenous fistulas were collected. Post-thrombotic disease of the profunda femoral vein alone or in combination with the femoral vein was observed more often in the cranial group. The caudal group more often received a smaller sized and straight polytetrafluoroethylene fistula, while the cranial group comprised a significantly higher amount of stented segments. Logistic regression showed that only reduced femoral inflow (hazard ratio 2.934 (95%CI, 1.148-7.494)) was a significant predictor of stent stenosis and/or occlusion. Logistic regression for risk of occlusion showed a significant influence of stent-related complications (hazard ratio 4.691 (95%CI, 1.205-18.260)) and a tendency towards influence of arteriovenous fistula geometry in favour of the cranially placed fistula. Placement of the arteriovenous fistula in the cranial part of the endophlebectomy during hybrid recanalisation may result in a more favourable outcome, yet this tendency was not statistically significant. Moreover, femoral inflow is pivotal in maintaining patency and should thus be adequately assessed pre-operatively.

Abstract W MP54: Risk Factors for Nosocomial Infections after Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Their Impact on Outcome: The Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ERICH) Study

Background: Risk factors for nosocomial infections and their impact on ICH outcomes are unclear. We hypothesized that factors present on admission are associated with developing infection, and patients who develop infections have worse outcomes. Methods: We determined prevalence of infections among patients in ERICH, a multicenter, triethnic case-control study of ICH. Exclusion criteria specific to this analysis were incomplete CT data and death/withdrawal of care &lt;72 hours after admission. Patients with infection &lt;two weeks before ICH were excluded from risk factor analyses, but included for outcomes assessments. We compared prevalence of risk factors for infections using chi-square and non-parametric tests, and performed multivariate logistic regression for risk of infection. Results: We enrolled 1397 individuals, 144 of whom died/had withdrawal of care within 72 hours and 210 with incomplete CT data, leaving 1043 patients. Nosocomial infections occurred in 300 patients (29%). Factors associated with presence of infections included ICH volume (13mL vs. 7mL, p &lt;0.0001), GCS on admission (13 vs. 15, p &lt;0.0001), WBC &gt; 10 (42% vs. 32%), and higher CRP levels (4.9 vs. 1.8, p=0.01). Blacks had higher infection rates versus whites and Hispanics (33% vs. 27% and 24%, p=0.06). Procedural factors associated with infection included ventriculostomy, intrathecal-tPA, and intubation, while major neurosurgical procedures were associated with a 10-fold increase in CNS infection (all p &lt;0.001). Infections were associated with bowel-bladder dysfunction, CHF/pulmonary edema, decubiti, DVT, dysphagia requiring PEG, and MI. Patients with infection were more likely to have DNR/DNI orders or to be dead at discharge (12.3% vs. 6.5%, p=0.0017). In a multivariate model for factors associated with infection, ICH volume, HIV history, intubation, CHF/pulmonary edema, and dysphagia requiring PEG were all associated with infection. Conclusion: There are identifiable risk factors associated with nosocomial infection after ICH, and infections are associated with mortality. Identification of patients at risk for infections may improve outcomes after ICH.

Post-Kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis in Nepal: A Retrospective Cohort Study (2000–2010)

IntroductionPost-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a cutaneous complication appearing after treatment of visceral leishmaniasis, and PKDL patients are considered infectious to sand flies and may therefore play a role in the transmission of VL. We estimated the risk and risk factors of PKDL in patients with past VL treatment in south-eastern Nepal.MethodsBetween February and May 2010 we traced all patients who had received VL treatment during 2000–2009 in five high-endemic districts and screened them for PKDL-like skin lesions. Suspected cases were referred to a tertiary care hospital for confirmation by parasitology (slit skin smear (SSS)) and/or histopathology. We calculated the risk of PKDL using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and exact logistic regression for risk factors.ResultsOut of 680 past-treated VL patients, 37(5.4%) presented active skin lesions suspect of PKDL during the survey. Thirty-three of them underwent dermatological assessment, and 16 (2.4%) were ascertained as probable (2) or confirmed (14) PKDL. Survival analysis showed a 1.4% risk of PKDL within 2 years of VL treatment. All 16 had been previously treated with sodium stibogluconate (SSG) for their VL. In 5, treatment had not been completed (≤21 injections). Skin lesions developed after a median time interval of 23 months [interquartile range (IQR) 16–40]. We found a higher PKDL rate (29.4%) in those inadequately treated compared to those who received a full SSG course (2.0%). In the logistic regression model, unsupervised treatment [odds ratio (OR) = 8.58, 95% CI 1.21–374.77], and inadequate SSG treatment for VL in the past (OR = 11.68, 95% CI 2.71–45.47) were significantly associated with PKDL.ConclusionThe occurrence of PKDL after VL treatment in Nepal is low compared to neighboring countries. Supervised and adequate treatment of VL seems essential to reduce the risk of PKDL development and active surveillance for PKDL is needed.

Clinical predictors for a high risk for the development of diabetes mellitus in the early puerperium in women with recent gestational diabetes mellitus

Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify which maternal, antepartum, or neonatal clinical parameters were predictive for a high risk of diabetes mellitus in the puerperium in women with recent gestational diabetes mellitus and to calculate the associated diabetes mellitus rates and odds ratios. Study design: One thousand six hundred thirty-six women underwent an oral glucose tolerance test within 1 to 4 months of delivery. Demographic, historic, and antenatal glycemic parameters and neonatal outcome parameters were tested by univariate and multivariate logistic regression for risk of postpartum diabetes mellitus. Continuous variables were divided into quartiles that compared the upper to lower quartile adjusted odds ratio and prevalence of diabetes mellitus. Results: Postpartum diabetes mellitus was diagnosed in 230 women (14.1%) according to the American Diabetes Association criteria (1997). No maternal demographic or neonatal parameters were significantly associated with diabetes mellitus. The final model of independent predictors in decreasing significance included the highest fasting plasma glucose level during pregnancy, any fasting plasma glucose level of ≥105 mg/dL (class A2), the area under the curve of pregnancy oral glucose tolerance test, gestational age at diagnosis, previous gestational diabetes mellitus history, and 50-g glucose challenge test results. The fasting plasma glucose level was the best discriminator, with a 21-fold (95% CI, 4.6-96.3) increased odds ratio comparing the 4th quartile (fasting plasma glucose level, >121 mg/dL; diabetes mellitus rate, 36.7%) to 1st quartile (fasting plasma glucose level, <95 mg/dL; diabetes mellitus rate, 0.5%). The presence of previous gestational diabetes mellitus or current class A2 gestational diabetes mellitus approximately doubled the odds ratio for diabetes mellitus. The odds ratio increased 3- to 4-fold when the area under the curve was ≥33.36 min · g/dL (4th quartile) or the glucose challenge test was ≥155 mg/dL (2nd–4th quartiles) and decreased >50% if gestational diabetes mellitus was diagnosed at >27 weeks (3rd-4th quartile). Conclusion: During pregnancy, the highest fasting glucose level, followed by the severity of glucose intolerance, and earlier gestational diabetes mellitus diagnosis were the best predictors for postpartum diabetes mellitus. Diabetic education should begin during pregnancy, especially for women who are identified to be at a high risk when they are highly motivated and under medical care. (Am J Obstet Gynecol 2002;186:751-6.)

A method for quantitating antifibrillatory effects of drugs after coronary reperfusion in dogs: improved outcome with bretylium.

We developed a quantitative approach to assess the antifibrillatory effects of short-term interventions in a canine preparation of ventricular fibrillation caused by coronary reperfusion, and applied it to evaluate the antifibrillatory effects of bretylium tosylate. Twenty-five dogs were given 10 mg/kg infusions of bretylium over 10 min, subjected to a 20 min proximal left anterior descending coronary artery ligation followed by sudden release, and compared with 25 animals given saline placebo. Drug infusion was begun 90 min before reperfusion to avoid evaluation of outcome during the phase of drug-induced catecholamine release and to allow adequate time for bretylium uptake in the myocardium. The relationship between the likelihood of ventricular fibrillation during reperfusion and the amount of myocardium perfused by the occluded vessel (myocardium at risk) was analyzed with the logistic risk-regression model. This model was developed to control for the effects of amount of myocardium at risk on outcome. For both the bretylium and the placebo groups the incidence of ventricular fibrillation correlated significantly with amount of myocardium at risk. However, animals treated with bretylium had an improved outcome for a given amount of myocardium at risk. In other words, the curve relating outcome to myocardium at risk was shifted significantly to the right. The amount of myocardium at risk required for half the placebo-treated animals to fibrillate was 20.3 g and that required for half the bretylium-treated animals to fibrillate was 27.9 g, or 37% more than that for the placebo group. This logistic risk-regression analysis format permits quantification of treatment effects while accounting for variability in amount of myocardium at risk.

Effect of myocardium at risk on outcome after coronary artery occlusion and release.

The relationship between the probability of sustaining ventricular fibrillation during occlusion or release of a canine coronary artery and the amount of myocardium made ischemic has never been carefully assessed. We occluded the left anterior descending coronary artery above or below the septal artery for 20 min and then released the ligation. The amount of left ventricle perfused by the ligated vessel was determined by injection of different color monastral dyes above and below the ligation. Despite careful ligature placement immediately proximal or distal to the septal artery, there was wide variation in the amount of left ventricle perfused by the ligated vessel, or myocardium "at risk." Myocardium at risk ranged between 24 and 51 g for ligations placed above the septal artery and 14 and 27 g for ligations placed below the septal artery. Ventricular fibrillation during occlusion and after release correlated significantly with the amount of myocardium at risk. This relationship was well described using the logistic risk regression model. The model predicts uniformly low and uniformly high probability of ventricular fibrillation with small and large amounts of myocardium at risk, respectively, and a direct correlation for midrange values of myocardium at risk. This relationship can account for a substantial portion of non-drug related variability in outcome of antiarrhythmic trials using the canine coronary occlusion or release model.