Logistic Regression Research Articles

The health and wellbeing of cardiology trainees in the united kingdom

Abstract Background Cardiology is a rewarding medical speciality. However, the intense workload can burden cardiologists with physical and psychological demands, and risks contributing to ill health. Cardiologists suffering poor health may increase absenteeism, stretching a workforce, and potentially reduce quality of patient care. Purpose We sought to describe the prevalence of physical and mental health conditions of cardiology trainees within the United Kingdom. We also aimed to identify factors associated with risk of burnout and negative drivers of psychological wellbeing. Methods The British Junior Cardiologists Association (BJCA) is a professional body which represents cardiology trainees in the UK. The BJCA conducts an annual survey of trainees, covering various aspects of working lives and all UK cardiology trainees are eligible to participate. For the 2023 survey, in addition to demographics and training questions, we asked questions on ill health, burnout, support for wellbeing, and invited responders to complete validated screening questionnaires for anxiety (GAD-7) and depression (PHQ-9). Responders were eligible for inclusion if they consented to take part in the health and wellbeing questions, and if they had completed four demographic questions. Anxiety and depression were deemed significant if scoring in the moderate or severe range (PHQ-9≥10; GAD7≥10). Significant burnout was defined as responders indicating being "somewhat" or "very" close to burnout. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios (OR) between univariate predictors of burnout, anxiety, and depression. Results Of the 398 responders, 212 fulfilled inclusion criteria (66% male, age 34±4 years, 42% had dependents). A physical health condition was reported by 11% of trainees, and 9% a reported a mental health condition. Significant burnout was reported by 76% of trainees. Those with dependents reported lower rates of burnout compared to those without (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.18-0.67, p<0.01). Significant depression scores were reported by 25%, significant anxiety scores in 18%, and significant scores of either depression or anxiety in 29% (Fig 1). Scores from 17% of trainees were consistent with significant depression or anxiety and yet not known to have a mental health condition. Less Than Full Time trainees reported higher rates of anxiety (OR 4.38, 95% CI 1.37-14.10, p=0.01) and depression (OR 10.31, 95% CI 2.98-35.71, p<0.01). Training was reported to have a negative impact on physical health by 43% of trainees, and 47% reported a negative impact on mental health. Principal drivers of negative wellbeing included the amount of service provision; curriculum requirements, and lack of training opportunities (Fig 2). Conclusions The prevalence of anxiety, depression and burnout is high amongst cardiology trainees. Urgent action is needed by training bodies and employers to ensure training programmes consider the physical and mental wellbeing of trainees.Depression and Anxiety ScreeningNegative Drivers of Wellbeing

Left atrial volumetric-mechanical coupling index as a marker of subclinical primary heart involvement in systemic sclerosis

Abstract Background Primary heart involvement in systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a common yet often clinically silent marker of poor prognosis. Up to 80% of patients have histopathological evidence of heart involvement, highlighting the need for better screening and diagnostic methods. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), a well-established cardiac biomarker, is often increased in patients with SSc, but with a not fully understood mechanism. Meanwhile, left atrial volumetric-mechanical coupling index (LACI), a new echocardiographic parameter, has been shown to predict cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure patients and the general population, but it has not been studied in SSc. Purpose To identify new echocardiographic parameters, particularly related to left atrial volume and function, as markers of increased NTproBNP in SSc patients without overt heart involvement. Methods Consecutive SSc patients without overt heart disease referred for routine cardiac screening underwent 2D and 3D transthoracic echocardiography, including atrial and ventricular strain analysis. LACI was calculated by both 2D and 3D echocardiography as the ratio between the left atrial volume index and the tissue-Doppler-imaging septal a’ velocity. Patients with significant structural and functional changes suggestive of systolic or diastolic dysfunction or pulmonary hypertension, and those with impaired global left ventricular strain were excluded. Logistic regression, Pearson correlation coefficients, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) are used to analyze the association and predictive power of LACI for elevated NTproBNP. Results A total of 36 SSc patients (55±10 years old; 34 (94%) women; mean disease duration 14±11 years) were included. Sixteen (44.4%) had diffuse cutaneous involvement (dcSSc). Seventeen (47%) patients had increased NTproBNP levels (i.e. >125 pg/mL). Among all tested variables, 3D LACI had the best correlation with NTproBNP values (r = 0.63, p<0.001). A 3D LACI of >2 associated with NTproBNP of >125 pg/mL (odds ratio 7.33 [95%CI 1.38-38.8]; p=0.01) and predicted these increased values with a sensitivity of 76.9% and a specificity of 81.2% (AUC 0.78). NTproBNP was also correlated with 2D LACI (r=0.55, p<0.001), peak left atrial longitudinal strain (r=-0.42, p=0.01), and left atrial contraction strain (r=0.48, p=0.005). Compared to patients with limited cutaneous involvement, those with dcSSc had higher NTproBNP values (250±139.6 vs 107.2±110.9 pg/mL, p=0.001), higher 3D LACI values (2.6±0.9 vs 1.9±0.5, p=0.02), with similar left atrial and ventricular strain parameters. Conclusion Left atrial volumetric-mechanical coupling index assessed by 3D echocardiography is significantly associated with and predictive of elevated NTproBNP levels in SSc patients without overt heart disease and may be a potentially useful non-invasive marker for screening for early subclinical heart involvement in SSc patients.

Incidence and predictors of neuropsychiatric manifestations following a traumatic brain injury at referral hospitals in Dodoma, Tanzania: A protocol of a prospective longitudinal observational study.

Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is any injury to the brain resulting from an external force leading to complications. TBI affects 27-69 million people yearly, with high incidence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), mainly attributed to motor traffic accidents. Within three to six months following moderate-to-severe TBI, the relative risk of any psychiatric disorder is significantly higher than in the general population. Post-TBI neuropsychiatric disorders include depression with a prevalence of up to 53%, apathy up to 72%, Posttraumatic stress disorder (26%), anxiety (9%), manic symptoms (5-9%) and psychosis (3 to 8%). This study aims to determine the incidence and predictors of post-TBI neuropsychiatric manifestations among patients admitted at Referral hospitals in Dodoma. This is a prospective longitudinal observational study in which patients admitted with moderate to severe TBI will be recruited. Patients will be followed for six months, the diagnostic MINI International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) tool will be used to assess TBI, and the severity and progression of symptoms will be evaluated using PHQ-9 for depressive symptoms, GAD-7 for anxiety symptoms, PCL-5 for Posttraumatic Stress Disorders (PTSD), MoCA for cognitive assessment, AES for apathy and YMRS for manic symptoms at one, three and six months. Logistic regression will be analysed to determine the association between predictors and neuropsychiatric outcomes. Given the dearth of understanding of the burden of neuropsychiatric complications and associated outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa, the study will shed light on the incidence and factors contributing to post-TBI neuropsychiatric complications and, thus, provide a platform for further research and design of necessary interventional programs for the population at risk.

Using HIS administrative data for initial assessment of comorbid patients’ status (Covid-19 case)

Abstract Background Despite numerous published articles, most of the studies on COVID-19 focused on influence of clinical characteristics and treatments on severity. Yet, the epidemiological viewpoint was rarely discussed. Based on our experience with comorbid hospitalized COVID-19 patients, we aim to show that HIS administrative data can be used to identify individuals that are more prone to worse outcome thus improving patient management not only during pandemics. Methods A retrospective single-center study was conducted using archived anonymized HIS administrative data for all 8319 COVID-19 patients in the university hospital ‘Saint Marina’-Varna, Bulgaria, in the period 14/06/2020-31/12/2021. Up to 7 comorbidities per patient were registered in HIS with ICD-10 codes, used for our analyses. Non-parametric tests and logistic regression were used at α=.05, 95%CI. Results Comorbid patients were 5741(69%), 50.3% ≥69y, 52% male; 1602(27.9%) died, 64% ≥69y, 54.4% male. Deceased were older (p< .01) and had more comorbidities (p< .01). Multimorbid patients (OR = 4.43; 3.80-5.17), male (OR = 4.72; 3.83-5.82) and older ones (OR = 1.91; 1.57-2.34) had higher odds of dying. The odds of dying increased with the number of comorbidities from OR=.635; .559-.721 for 1 to OR = 4.23; 3.28-5.46 for 7. From 4967 comorbid diseases (451 ICD-10 codes), only those from code groups A, J, N, E, I, Z were suitable for analysis. Patients with A41.9 (OR = 213.69; 52.88-863.43), J80 (OR = 52.88; 32.58-85.56), N17 (OR = 18.63; 10.24-33.87), E11.7 (OR = 4.72; 3.09-7.19), I13.2 (OR = 4.67; 3.151-6.93), Z95 (OR = 3.81; 2.74-5.31), I63 (OR = 3.56; 2.25-5.61), E66 (OR = 3.12; 2.10-4.64) died more often. Conclusions Our findings match the results based on EMR data: death with COVID-19 was associated with comorbidities (sepsis, acute RDS and kidney, heart and renal failure, diabetes, cerebral infarction, obesity, implants and grafts), age, gender, i.e. HIS administrative data can be used for quick assessment of comorbid patients’ status. Key messages • HIS administrative data can be used for quick assessment of multimorbidity and following personalized treatment is highly recommended to decrease hospital mortality not only in times of pandemic. • Older Bulgarians have many comorbidities from ICD code groups A, J, N, E, I, Z, and are more prone to death, especially in times of pandemic. Public health measures are needed to prevent comorbidity.

Association of leukocyte telomere length and the risk of disease severity and metabolic comorbidities in Arab patients with psoriasis.

Several studies have related shortened leukocyte telomere length (LTL) with age-related diseases and worse prognosis. Telomere length attrition has recently been associated with inflammatory diseases, including psoriasis. However, no study has demonstrated an association between LTL and the risk of disease severity and metabolic comorbidities in Arab patients with psoriasis (Ps). 68 Ps and 42 normal controls (NC) were included. LTL and oxidative damage were determined by quantitative (q) PCR. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using logistic regression. Statistical differences between the groups were determined using 2 and t-tests. Patients with psoriasis had significantly shorter LTL (P= 0.032) and higher oxidative damage (P= 0.015) than those without psoriasis. Patients with moderate-to-severe index (P= 0.03) and metabolic comorbidity showed significantly shorter LTL (P= 0.003) compared to patients with mild index and without metabolic comorbidity, respectively. Patients with short LTL (≤ 0.9) were correlated with higher risk of moderate-to-severe conditions (OR= 6.98, 95% CI= 2.3-20.8, P= 0.001) and metabolic comorbidities (OR= 2.89, 95% CI= 1.02- 8.2, P= 0.04). LTL shortening may be a consequence of increased oxidative damage, and is related to the risk of severe psoriasis and metabolic comorbidities. Therefore, LTL may be a good candidate biomarker for predicting the risk of poor prognosis in patients with psoriasis.

Three-dimensional deformation imaging to detect myocardial scar

Abstract Introduction Myocardial scar or fibrosis has significant implications in patient management and prognosis. Currently, cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is the reference technique for detection and quantification of scar though other imaging modalities have been proven to be useful as well. Purpose This study aims to investigate the usefulness of 3D strain echocardiography to identify myocardial scar in patients with ischaemic and non-ischaemic myocardial fibrosis using late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) CMR as a reference. Methods 149 individuals with ischaemic (89), non-ischaemic scar (26) and no scar (34) on LGE CMR underwent 3D transthoracic echocardiography. The 3D data sets were processed with the 4D LV analysis tool by TOMTEC Imaging Systems GmbH, Germany. The longitudinal, circumferential, radial, and principal tangential strain were calculated. Using a 16 LV-segment model the areas of LGE were assessed on CMR images, and a correlation between 3D strain values and LGE was investigated. Results A multivariate binary logistic regression model was built with the conditional backward elimination method using LGE as the dependent variable. The predictors made a significant contribution to the model (Wald test: 49.985, p<0.001). The Cox & Snell R-square was 0.141, and Nagelkerke R-square was 0.232, suggesting that the final model explains 14.1% or 23.2% of LGE variability. By logistic regression analysis, less negative peak principal tangential strain (P-PTS), peak circumferential strain (P-SC), and end-systolic circumferential strain (ES-CS) increased the odds, whereas increased peak radial strain (P-RS) decreased the likelihood of LGE (Table 1). The LGE extent was calculated as the average LGE transmurality of all 16 segments and was used as the dependent variable in linear regression models. The LGE extent was significantly correlated with all strain indices (Table 2). By stepwise linear regression analysis, P-PTS (B=0.029, 95%CI:0.019-0.040, P<0.001) outperformed the remaining strain variables in terms of linear association with LGE extent. Association between strain indices and the presence or absence of myocardial fibrosis in each of the 16 segments was tested by point biserial correlation (Table 3). PTS and CS indices were associated with myocardial fibrosis in 10/16 segments; RS indices were associated with LGE in 9/16 segments, and LS was not related to the presence of LGE in 15/16 segments. Septal (basal-mid-apical) and mid/apical anterior and inferior segmental strain showed more consistent associations with corresponding myocardial fibrosis. Conclusion 3D strain echocardiography is a promising and easily accessible technique, that can be used to identify areas of myocardial scar as it correlates well with LGE in many LV segments. Echocardiography is a bedside and widely available technique, and it could be used in patients with contraindications or no access to CMR or myocardial perfusion scan.Table 3

Association between high versus low cardiovascular risk in individuals with corresponding unexpected absent versus severe subclinical coronary atherosclerosis, a nationwide, multicenter study

Abstract Background It remains unclear as to why some individuals at low risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) develop severe coronary atherosclerosis, while those at high CVD risk may remain free from coronary atherosclerosis. Purpose Using Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography (CCTA), we aimed to identify factors associated with absence and severe coronary atherosclerosis in subjects from the general population with very high and low-moderate CVD risk, respectively. Methods We assessed cross-sectionally a nationwide, multicenter population-based cohort, consisting of 30,154 individuals randomly recruited from the general population (age range 50-64 years, 51.4% women). Coronary calcified plaque burden was estimated by coronary artery calcium score (CACS) assessed by CCTA. Absent coronary atherosclerosis was defined as CACS 0 and severe coronary atherosclerosis was defined as CACS ≥301. We investigated only individuals with low-moderate (<5%) and very high CVD risk (≥10%) according to SCORE2 were included. Individuals with CACS 0 and prevalent CVD were excluded, as well as those with moderate CACS (1-300) or SCORE2 risk 5-9%. Out of 26 722 subjects with complete data on CACS and SCORE2, 13 075 were included. Logistic regression was performed adjusted for age and sex. Results The overall distribution of CACS in relation to SCORE2 CVD risk is illustrated in the Figure. Study characteristics are displayed in Table 1. Severe-extensive CACS in combination with low-moderate CVD risk was present in 2.3% (n=296). A further 2.3% (n=311) had very high CVD risk but CACS 0. Factors associated with CACS 0 despite a very-high estimated CVD risk included: lower age, being female, being born in Sweden, not having hypertension or hyperlipidemia, fewer pack-years of smoking, and lower waist circumference in men. On the contrary, severe-extensive CACS despite a low-moderate estimated CVD risk was associated with higher age, being male, being an ex-smoker, reporting more pack-years of smoking, having higher HbA1c, higher BMI, higher waist circumference, and prevalent hyperlipidemia and hypertension (Table 2). Conclusions We identified extreme cardiovascular risk phenotypes (subgroups) in the general population that either lacked coronary calcifications despite being at very high estimated CVD risk or had severe subclinical coronary atherosclerosis despite being at estimated low-moderate CVD risk. Further studies are warranted to elucidate putative enhancing or protective mechanisms explaining this unexpected phenomenon.

Unveiling the determinants of women's cardiovascular disease awareness in northern Italy: insights from the Call for Women project

Abstract Background Despite strides in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD remains the leading cause of death (LCOD) in women. While global initiatives aim to enhance awareness, recent studies reveal deficiencies, particularly in Europe where misconceptions prevail, hindering women’s understanding of CVD severity. Purpose To describe determinants affecting awareness of CVD as LCOD among women in the Lombardy region, Italy. Methods A web-based survey (the ‘Call for Women’ Project) was conducted from Sep 2022 to Nov 2023, including women aged 18 and above. The primary focus was awareness of CVD as the LCOD (scaled 1 [adequate] to 2 [inadequate]). The individual predictors (i.e., determinants) of adequate awareness were assessed through a logistic regression (LR) model. Variables exhibiting a point biserial correlation coefficient (rpb) with a p-value ≤ 0.1 were included in the LR model as independent variables. The goodness-of-fit for the LR model was determined using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and Nagelkerke’s pseudo-R2. Independent variables were entered simultaneously into the model to examine each variable’s relatively unique contribution. Results Out of 3,487 women who completed the survey, only 35.6% (n = 1,240) showed adequate awareness. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good model fit (p-value = 0.692), suggesting that the model adequately captures the relationships between the variables and the outcome. Figure 1 shows the contribution of each individual characteristic in modulating cardiovascular risk awareness. The odds of being aware of CVD as the LCOD were significantly influenced by age, decreasing by approximately 1.3% for each additional year of age (Adj. OR = 0.987; 95% CI = 0.981–0.993; p-value < 0.001). Individuals with a lower secondary school diploma exhibited a substantial increase in the odds of awareness, with an Adj. OR of 4.999 (95% CI = 3.074–8.128; p-value < 0.001). Similarly, those with an upper secondary school diploma, a bachelor’s degree, or a master’s degree also demonstrated higher odds of awareness (Adj. OR = 2.427, 1.673, and 1.429, respectively; all p-values < 0.001). Regarding lifestyle, higher number of children was associated with increased odds of awareness, with an Adj. OR of 1.109 (95% CI = 1.027–1.197; p-value = 0.008). Consumption of dry fruits and fruits showed a positive association with an Adj. OR of 1.014 (95% CI = 1.005–1.024; p-value = 0.004), indicating a potential role of dietary habits in influencing awareness. BMI and physical activity did not exhibit statistically significant associations with awareness of CVD risk. Conclusions This pilot study, limited to one region only, reveals key determinants of awareness of CVD as the LCOD among women in northern Italy. Tailoring interventions to address these determinants has the potential to narrow the gaps in CVD awareness among women.

Onset of cognitive impairment, diet quality and adherence to dietary guidelines over 12 years: the Personality and Total Health Cohort Study.

Around 55 million people worldwide live with dementia, and more are expected due to population ageing. We aimed to investigate associations between healthy diet and mild cognitive impairment and dementia in 1753 older adults aged 60-64 from the PATH (Personality and Total Health Through Life Cohort) study. Healthy diet was defined by the Mediterranean-DASH diet Intervention for Neurological Delay (MIND) and two dietary guideline quality scores (Dietary Guideline Index (DGI) and Index Diet Quality (IDQ)), which were calculated from baseline FFQ. Higher dietary scores indicated higher diet quality. Incidence of Alzheimer's disease/vascular dementia (National Institute of Neurological Disorders criteria) and mild cognitive impairment (Winbald criteria) was assessed after 12 years of follow-up using validated questionnaires with nominated proxies. Logistic regression explored associations between dietary scores and cognitive function, adjusting for demographics, lifestyle factors and medical preconditions. Adjusted logistic regression comparing the per unit linear increase in diet scores showed MIND (OR = 0·82, 95 % CI = 0·68, 0·99), but not DGI (0·99 (0·97, 1·00)) or IDQ (1·12 (0·95, 1·32)), was significantly associated with lower odds of developing cognitive impairment. In conclusion, a healthier neuroprotective dietary pattern is associated with better cognitive function over time, whereas dietary patterns generated from general dietary guidelines did not show a significant association. Further research and well-designed clinical studies are needed to determine the effects of the MIND diet on cognitive impairment in older adults without a family history of dementia.

A 3-year retrospective exploration of predictors for cardiac arrest in atrial fibrillation

Abstract Background An increasing correlation between atrial fibrillation (AF) and a heightened risk of cardiac arrest is emerging. Yet, the specific predictors of cardiac arrest in hospitalized patients with AF remain unclear. Purpose This study aims to identify these predictors, providing essential insights for refined risk assessment and targeted clinical interventions. Methods Adult patients hospitalized between 2018 and 2020 with a primary diagnosis of AF with or without cardiac arrest were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code. Demographics and comorbidities were recorded. Logistic regression was employed to identify predictors of increased cardiac arrest. Results In a study of 272,028 hospitalizations with AF, 2,352 patients suffered cardiac arrest, and 523 died during hospitalization. Factors associated with increased odds of cardiac arrest include heart failure (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.60–2.00), cardiogenic shock (OR = 2.95, 95% CI: 2.35–3.71), history of coronary angioplasty or bypass (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.59–2.02), chronic kidney disease (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.12–1.42), end-stage kidney disease (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.98–2.77), and septic shock (OR = 6.50, 95% CI: 4.80–8.80). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and infection were associated with a 13% (OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02–1.26) and 45% (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.25–1.68) increase in odds for cardiac arrest, respectively. Increased age (OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98–0.99) and female sex (OR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.76–0.91) showed an inverse relation with cardiac arrest. Hypertension and obesity exhibited protective effects against cardiac arrest, with odds ratios of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.74–0.97) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75–0.93), respectively. Conclusion Our study underscores the intricate web of factors influencing cardiac arrest risk in AF patients. A personalized approach to risk assessment in the context of AF might be needed.

Cardiac structure and function in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Abstract Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is common and strongly associated with cardiovascular disease, but the pathophysiology has not been fully elucidated. Purpose We aimed to investigate cardiac structure and function in patients with COPD compared to a matched general population. Methods In a prospective cohort study, 796 patients with COPD were included and matched 1:2 on age and sex with controls from a general population study. All participants underwent an examination program including echocardiography. Standardized linear regression coefficients were used to compare cardiac structure and function in patients with COPD vs. controls. Impaired left ventricular (LV) function was defined as a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50%, or global longitudinal strain (GLS) <16% (numerical). Impaired right ventricular (RV) function was defined as tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) <1.7 cm. Diastolic dysfunction was defined as having at least two of the following parameters: E/e’ >14, septal e’ velocity <7cm/s, or lateral e’ velocity <10 cm/s, left atrial volume index (LAVi) >34 mL/m2, or tricuspid regurgitation velocity (TRV) >2.8 m/s. Logistic regression was used to assess associations between having COPD and systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Results Mean age was 70.2 ± 8.3 years and 52% were females. COPD patients had a mean forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) of 49.4 ± 18.8% predicted. At baseline, 43% of the patients with COPD had hypertension and 10% had diabetes (DM). Additionally, 57% with COPD had cardiovascular disease at baseline, including 12% with ischemic heart disease (IHD), 15% with atrial fibrillation (AF), 6% with heart failure, and 5% with a previous ischemic stroke. Patients with COPD had impaired measures of cardiac structure and function including a lower GLS (COPD vs. controls: 16.3 vs. 19.2%), lower TAPSE (2.3 vs. 2.6 cm), larger LAVi (29.0 vs. 24.7 mL/m2), and higher TRV (2.7 vs. 2.3 m/s), p for all associations <0.001. (See figure). Patients with COPD had a significantly higher prevalence of impaired LV systolic function (OR for GLS <16%: 8.18, 95% CI(6.04; 11.1), p <0.001), impaired RV systolic function (OR for TAPSE <1.7 cm: 2.77, 95% CI(1.63; 4.69), p <0.001), and LV diastolic dysfunction (OR for diastolic dysfunction grade I or higher: 4.00, 95% CI(3.12; 5.13), p <0.001) after adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, smoking, DM, IHD, AF, and lower density lipoprotein. (See figure). Conclusion Patients with COPD had significantly impaired LV and RV systolic function as well as impaired diastolic function compared with individuals from the general population. These findings underscore the importance of recognizing and addressing cardiovascular comorbidities in COPD.

Machine learning for prediction of incident heart failure and heart failure hospitalisation: multi-cohort development, validation and association with clinical phenotypes

Abstract Background Delayed heart failure (HF) diagnosis is associated with adverse outcomes and costs of hospitalisation.(1,2) Whilst previous tools have been developed to predict incident HF,(3) risk of HF incidence may correlate poorly with risk of HF hospitalisation, which may be more important in targeting diagnostics. Purpose To develop and validate a novel decision support tool for prediction of incident HF and HF hospitalisation, and investigate association of score with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Methods We developed the models (FIND-HF) in UK primary care health record data from individuals aged ≥40 years without known HF (Jan 2, 1998 to Feb 28, 2022), randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. We evaluated logistic regression and supervised machine learning models for prediction of 1- and 5- year HF and HF hospitalisation risk in the testing dataset with internal bootstrap validation. Models were externally validated for HF hospitalisation in data from a Taiwanese university hospital. Association of FIND-HF score with HF phenotypes of HFpEF and HFrEF was assessed in two prospective cohorts, the MATCH registry of patients diagnosed with HFrEF and the FIND-AF cohort of individuals at higher predicted risk of atrial fibrillation who underwent echocardiography. Results Of 565 284 UK individuals (mean age 68.9 (SD 12.2) years, 49.2% women), incidence of HF and HF hospitalisation was 1.1% and 0.5% at 1-year, and 6.6% and 3.4% at 5-years, respectively. Prediction performance was superior for machine learning algorithms compared with logistic regression, with best performance for XGBoost (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) at 1 and 5-years: 0.755 and 0.723 for incident HF, and 0.738 and 0.711 for incident HF hospitalization). On external validation in 106,026 individuals in Taiwan (mean age 64.7 (SD 10.6) years, 52.8 % women), HF hospitalisation incidence was 0.71%, and 2.46% at 1- and 5- years, respectively, and discrimination performance was excellent (AUROC at 1- and 5-years: 0.834 and 0.843). When the FIND-HF score was applied to individuals in the MATCH cohort (n = 133, mean age 69.0 (SD 11.7) years, 38.3% women) and FIND-AF cohort (n = 82, mean age 71.6 (SD 7.5) years, 50.0% women), the distribution of score to clinical phenotypes demonstrated a binomial distribution (Figure 1), and likelihood of HFpEF diagnosis correlated with the numeric score (Figure 2). Conclusions The machine learning FIND-HF decision support tool can accurately identify individuals at risk of incident HF and HF hospitalisation, to enable new approaches for early detection and prevention. The variation of score amongst high risk individuals with different HF clinical phenotypes emphasizes the distinct pathophysiological pathways but shared adverse outcome profile across the HF syndrome.Figure 1Figure 2

The impact of targeted bleeding source treatment on the risk of recurrent bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention among patients with a history of prior bleeding

Abstract Background Prior bleeding is one of the strongest predictors for bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Whether targeted treatment of the prior bleeding site affects the risk of bleeding after PCI is unknown to date. Methods From an all-comers population undergoing PCI between 2009-2019, patients with BARC 2-4 bleeding prior to index PCI were identified. Among those, the recurrence of BARC 2-5 bleeding at the same bleeding site, any BARC 2-5 bleeding, and mortality were compared throughout 1 year after PCI between patients with vs. without targeted treatment at the prior bleeding site. Targeted treatment was defined as medical, interventional, or surgical therapy targeted to cure the cause of bleeding. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRadj) were extracted from Cox regressions. Inverse probability weights were computed from a logistic regression with targeted treatment as dependent variable, and the following covariates: ARC-HBR variables associated with ≥4% 1-year bleeding risk in this registry (including oral anticoagulation), aspirin, potent P2Y12 inhibitor treatment, and prior bleeding site. Results Out of 18’510 patients enrolled from 2009-2019, 845 (4.6%) had a history of prior BARC 2-4 bleeding before PCI. Mean age was 71.6 years, 25% were female, and 52% presented with acute coronary syndrome. Patients with targeted treatment were significantly younger (70.3 vs. 72.5 years, p=0.005) and had more frequently malignancies (25% vs. 18%, p=0.012). 26/344 (7.6%) of patients with targeted treatment vs. 31/501 (6.2%) of patients without targeted treatment experienced recurrent BARC 2-5 bleeding at the same bleeding site (HRadj 1.35, 95% CI 0.79-2.30, p=0.268). 45/344 (13.1%) of patients with targeted treatment vs. 59/501 (11.8%) of patients without targeted treatment experienced any recurrent BARC 2-5 bleeding (HRadj 1.16, 95% CI 0.78-1.72, p=0.473). The rate of mortality was also similar between the groups (targeted treatment 13.7% vs. no targeted treatment 12.4%, HRadj 1.13, 95% CI 0.76-1.67, p=0.549). Conclusions Among patients with a bleeding history before PCI, half of the recurrent bleeding events throughout 1-year after PCI occurred at the same bleeding site, regardless of whether the bleeding source underwent targeted treatment. These findings imply that targeted treatment is not protective for recurrent bleeding events after PCI and that prior bleeding represents rather a systemic than local bleeding risk.Frequency of bleeding sitesKaplan Meier curves

Suboptimal lipid lowering therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention and impact on 1 year outcomes: data from a large contemporary PCI registry

Abstract Background Myocardial revascularisation by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is an effective method for symptom relief in obstructive coronary artery disease on top of pharmacological therapy. In patients with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS), revascularization also leads to improved prognosis. However, patients who underwent PCI are still at high risk for future coronary events such as myocardial infarction, in-stent restenosis or development of new lesions at other locations. According to the current ESC guidelines every patient undergoing PCI should receive at least high-intensity statin therapy to achieve low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) target values and to prevent future coronary events. The Zuid-Oost Netherlands Heart Registry (ZON-HR) is an ongoing, multicentre, prospective registry designed to improve secondary prevention after PCI. Purpose To describe differences in lipid lowering therapy after PCI and the influence on major adverse cardiovascular and cerebral events (MACCE) one year after PCI. Methods Since November 2020 data from all patients who underwent PCI in one of the four ZON-HR hospitals were included. Patients with known lipid lowering medication at discharge and 1 year follow-up were selected (N=4272). Patient characteristics, lipid lowering medication at discharge and 1 year follow-up regarding complications were collected. Cross tables and logistic regressions were used to observe baseline differences between patients with and without lipid lowering therapy (LLT) at discharge. A cox regression survival analysis with adjustments for baseline differences was performed to look at differences in MACCE after one year in patients with and without LLT after discharge. Results In 11.9% of the patients LLT was not part of the discharge medication. Patients without LLT were older and had more often chronic coronary syndrome (71.3 ± 10.7 vs 67.6 ± 10.9 and 63.2% vs 43.1%, respectively)(table 1). After one year, MACCE had occurred more often in patients without LLT at discharge after adjustment for baseline differences (HR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.15-1.98) (figure 1). In an additional analysis with only ACS patients even a higher occurrence of MACCE was observed in patients without LLT at discharge (HR: 1.97, 95%CI 1.41-2.76). Conclusion In real-world practice, suboptimal cholesterol management is frequently observed and leads to a higher occurrence of MACCE one year post PCI. Almost 12% of the patients did not have any LLT after PCI. Patients with ACS indication for PCI without LLT after PCI even had worse outcome regarding MACCE after 1 year. More attention should be paid regarding cholesterol management after PCI in order to prevent future coronary events.Baseline differencesMACCE and lipid lowering medication

Functioning in Older Adults: Prevalence and Implications for Policy and Digital Services

Abstract Background Actions maintaining and promoting functioning, and proactively preparing for the surge in demand for services in near future, are needed as the population is aging. Policy actions need to base on up-to-date picture of the situation. We examined the prevalence of limitations in different dimensions of functioning in the older population. Methods Data consisted of participants aged 75 years or older (n = 9,686) in the nationally representative Healthy Finland Survey in 2022. The questionnaire included questions on various aspects of functioning (physical, cognitive, psychosocial, need and use of help), quality of life, internet use and digital competence. Weighted prevalence of functional limitations by age (75-79, 80-84, 85-89, ≥90 years) was analyzed for men and women using logistic regression, sampling design and non-response acknowledged. Results Difficulties in most aspects of functioning increased rapidly with age. In ≥ 90-year-olds, one third experienced major difficulties in activities of daily living (vs. 4% in 75-79-year-olds), and 30% of men and 45% women aged 90 or over experienced major difficulties in getting out of their home (vs. 4% in 75-79-year-olds). The prevalence of loneliness doubled by age, from 9% in the youngest to 21% in oldest age group. The corresponding increase in psychological distress was from 9% to 15%. Need for help increased dramatically with age, but the unmet need among those needing help did not, being around 20% in all age groups. In ≥ 90-year-olds, 83% of men 92% of women reported little or no internet skills (vs. 40% in 75-79-year-olds), and 55% of men and 75% women did not use digital services at all, i.e. neither independently nor with help from others (vs. 25-28% in 75-79-year-olds). Conclusions Difficulties in functioning and need of help were common among the oldest age groups which underlines the urgency to ensure sufficient resources for elderly care. Key messages • While developing health and social care services, equal access to services must be ensured even for those not able to use digital services. • Functioning must be supported not only by measures aimed at the individual, but also by improving the environment so that people with a lower level of functioning can cope with their everyday lives.

Unequal cannabis use among European adolescents: the mediating role of perceived access and risk

Abstract Introduction Cannabis use among adolescents is a public health concern, because of its association with the use of other illicit drugs, mental health disorders, and social problems. Most studies show that adolescents from low socioeconomic status (SE) background are more likely to use cannabis, but the causes of SE inequalities remain to be understood. We test whether access and risk perceptions of cannabis use among disadvantaged adolescents explain the SE gradient. Objectives The aim of this study was to measure the mediating effect of access perception and risk perception on the association between SE status and cannabis use among European adolescents in 2019. Methods A cross-sectional, observational, analytical study was conducted, among 16-year-old students, based on data from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Drugs (ESPAD) in 2019. The outcome was cannabis use (experimental, regular, and problematic) and the exposure was SE status (parental education and subjective social status). Mediating variables were perceived accessibility and perceived risk of cannabis use. We used logistic regressions, where the odds ratio (OR) reduction measures the part of the association explained by the mediators. Results Regular and problematic cannabis use was significantly more prevalent among adolescents with a lower SE background (low parental education and low subjective social status, p < 0,001). This relationship remained significant after adjustment for perceived access and risk, and the modification of ORs was of a small magnitude (a non-significant reduction of the association). Conclusions Perceived accessibility and risk showed a weak mediating effect of the association between SE background and cannabis use. Consequently, these factors cannot be considered as major explanations for the higher use among worse-off adolescents. Reinforcing information or imposing stronger barriers in access may not help reduces SE inequalities in cannabis consumption. Key messages • Perceived accessibility and risk hardly explain the association between socioeconomic background and cannabis use among European adolescents. • Reinforcing information or imposing stronger barriers in access may not help reduces socioeconomic inequalities in cannabis use.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and hybrid immunity in the respiratory season of 2022-23 in Hungary

Abstract Background There has been an increase in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among the general population, accompanied by a decline in confidence that vaccines provide adequate protection. We estimated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines (CVE) and hybrid immunity against medically attended COVID-19 during the 2022-2023 respiratory season in Hungary. Methods We conducted a test-negative design study involving 68 GPs. Patients aged ≥18 years presenting with acute respiratory infection were swabbed. Cases and controls were patients testing positive and negative for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR, respectively. Exposure was defined as having received at least one COVID-19 booster dose, taking into account the time since the last vaccination. CVE was estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for symptom onset date, age, chronic condition and sex. Results We included 247 cases and 1073 controls in the analysis. 196 samples were sequenced, and Omicron BA.5, BQ.1 and XBB.1 were the most frequent sub-variants. The CVE was 52.9% (95% CI: 15.2-73.9%), and 72.3% (95% CI: 32.0-88.7%) in the 18-59, and 60+-year-old population who received the final dose within the past year, respectively. Self-reported COVID-19 in the previous 60-365 days did not confer protection against reinfection, however, when combined with booster vaccination, it reduced the risk of COVID-19 by 63.0% (95% CI: −28.0-89.3%) and 87.6% (95% CI: 26.4-97.9%) among the 18-59 and 60+ age groups, respectively. Conclusions Booster vaccination within one year after the last dose confers significant protection against symptomatic infection, particularly among the elderly. Those who have previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2 may also benefit from booster vaccinations. Key messages • COVID-19 booster campaigns must be intensified, focusing mainly on the elderly. • Providing clear guidance on the timing and target groups of vaccination and emphasising the benefits of vaccination can help to achieve higher coverage.

Trends in influenza vaccination and its determinants among pregnant French women between 2015 and 2020: A single-center study

ABSTRACT In 2016, only 7% of French women had received an influenza vaccination during their pregnancy. In this vaccine-averse country, the possibility of reaching the rates of 50% observed in other countries remains unknown. To measure the rate of influenza vaccination in a French university maternity. To study its evolution and determinants over the last 5 years. Single-center observational study of all women who gave birth during March 2020 in this maternity. Comparison with rates observed in 2015 in the same conditions. Of the 337 women included in the study, 202 received a vaccination during pregnancy (59.9%). After logistic regression, the factors significantly associated with achieving vaccination were the offer of vaccination during pregnancy, odds ratio (ORa) 26.2 [7.0; 98.2]; previous vaccination, ORa 20.3 [9.6; 42.6]; high education level, ORa 2.9 [1.3; 6.2]; delivery of a CERFA government reimbursement form, ORa 2.5 [1.3; 4.8]; a vaccination offer made by a general practitioner, ORa 2.1 [1.0; 4.4] and not by a hospital midwife, ORa 0.3 [0.1; 0.6]. The rate of vaccination increased from 35% to 59.9% between 2015 and 2020 ( p < .001), with a significant increase in the offer of vaccination during pregnancy (+14.6%) - especially by a general practitioner (+17.2%) - and in the rate of women with earlier vaccination (+13.6%). In France, vaccination rates above 50% are possible at a center level. A proposal of vaccination during pregnancy – especially by the general practitioner – seems to be a determining factor in this development.

Housing tenure and acute lower respiratory tract infection admissions in two Scottish birth cohorts

Abstract Introduction Early-life acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Despite young children spending much of their time at home, the contribution of home ownership status, on LRTI hospital admissions is unknown. Objectives To estimate the association between housing tenure and the odds of LRTI hospitalization in children &amp;lt;2 years in two birth cohorts. Methods De-identified Scottish birth records were linked to maternal Census data (2001 and 2011) and to hospital admission data to construct two birth cohorts (Cohort 1 (C1), born 2000-2002; Cohort 2 (C2), 2010-2012). Using logistic regression we estimated the association of housing tenure (owned, social rented, private rented, rent-free) with the odds of LRTI hospital admission, before and after adjustment for maternal age, residential area, and maternal qualification level. Results Over the 2-year follow-up, there were 14,833 LRTI admissions in 12,527 children (10,832 children had 1 LRTI admission and 1,695 &amp;gt;1 LRTI admission). 75.6 % of all LRTI admissions were due to bronchiolitis. In C1 and C2, 4.0% and 5.3% children, respectively, had one or more LRTI admission. Compared to children living in owned housing, the odds of LRTI admission were higher in children living in social rented housing (C1: Odds ratio=1.40, 95% confidence interval: 1.31-1.49; C2: 1.23, 1.16-1.31), private rented (C1:1.24, 1.11,1.39; C2: 1.14, 1.06-1.21), and rent-free housing (C1: 1.53, 1.35,1.74; C2: 1.04, 0.80-1.36) after confounder adjustment. Conclusions We found an association between non-owned housing and higher odds of LRTI admission which was more marked in C1 than in C2. Further research is warranted to unpick the mechanisms underlying the association between housing tenure and LRTI admission. Interventions to prevent LRTI admissions could usefully target children living in non-owned housing. Key messages • This study demonstrates the value of administrative and health data linkage in improving our understanding of how socio-environmental factors might impact children’s respiratory health. • Children living in social and private rented housing (compared to owned housing) have a higher risk of LRTI hospital admission and could benefit the most from LRTI-lowering interventions.

The association between mammographic breast density, epicardial adipose tissue volume and coronary artery disease

Abstract Background Dysfunctional adipose tissue is strongly linked to cardiometabolic disease. Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) which is measurable on cardiac computed tomography (CT) is well correlated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), however it is not reported clinically. Breast mammography mandates reporting of breast density (BD), which is also a marker of breast adipose tissue quantity with less dense breasts indicating greater adipose tissue volume. Given the widespread use of screening mammography, this presents an opportunity to employ BD as a possible surrogate for CVD risk. Purpose To evaluate the correlation between BD, EAT and coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods Single-centre, retrospective, cross-sectional study, including women who had both clinically indicated coronary computed tomography angiogram (CCTA) and mammography. Epicardial adipose tissue volume (EATv) was quantified using semi-automated software (QFAT 2.0). BD was visually assessed by standard 4-level Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) grade with grade A-B representing low density, and C-D representing high density. CAD was categorised as presence/absence of any coronary artery plaque, and CAD severity was quantified using the Coronary Artery Disease Reporting and Data Systems (CAD-RADS) score, with CAD-RADS 1-2 representing mild disease, CAD-RADS 3 moderate disease and CAD-RADS 4 severe disease. CAD analyses were adjusted for modifiable (hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, body mass index) and non-modifiable (age, past smoking, family history, breast cancer) risk factors. Logistic regression was performed with results presented as Odds Ratio (OR) and [95% Confidence Intervals]. Results Among 153 patients (mean age 62±10), 103 (67.3%) had low BD (high breast adiposity). Compared with high BD, low BD patients were older, had greater rates of hypertension, had significantly higher mean EAT (106.6 ± 43.0 vs 81.0 ± 31.6ml, p&amp;lt;0.001) (Figure 1), and body mass index (30.5 ± 6.3 vs 26.4 ± 5.4kg/m², p&amp;lt;0.001). Adjusted for age and hypertension, EATv remained independently predictive of low BD (OR:1.02 [1.01-1.03], p=0.006). Low BD made up a higher proportion of mild (76.5%), moderate (73.9%) and severe (80.0%) disease. Low BD was strongly associated with presence of CAD (prevalence 75% vs 48%, OR 3.21 [1.58-6.53], p=0.001) independent of EATv (p=0.25), and independent of modifiable (OR: 2.69 [1.24-5.92], p=0.012) and non-modifiable (OR: 2.42 [1.04-5.85], p=0.047) risk factors (Figure 2). Conclusions Low breast density is associated with higher EATv and independently associated with CAD presence beyond EATv and other risk factors. Consequently, mammographic breast density may act as an early risk identification tool for CAD in women.