Location Of Intertropical Convergence Zone Research Articles

Location and Intensity Changes of the North Equatorial Countercurrent Tied to ITCZ Under Global Warming

AbstractPrevious studies have suggested that global ocean circulation would be significantly changed under global warming, while the change of North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) and its mechanisms are still unclear. Here, we investigate the location and intensity changes of NECC under global warming based on CESM1 high‐resolution long‐term simulations from the perspective of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), considering the close connection between NECC and ITCZ and well‐established changes of ITCZ. It is found that the annual‐mean NECC shifts equatorward of 0.39° and weakens by 21.71% in the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of 21st century. The NECC change is seasonally dependent, with maximum shift and weakening during spring, consistent with the changes of ITCZ. Both the location and intensity changes of ITCZ are important in the NECC changes, especially for spring. The weakening and equatorward shift of ITCZ contributes almost equally to the strongest decrease of spring NECC (47.63%).

Equatorward shift of the boreal summer intertropical convergence zone in Maritime Continent and the impacts on surface black carbon concentration and public health

In Maritime Continent, the shift of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) location directly regulates the distribution of black carbon and hence affects public health in the region, but the mechanism and human health impacts have not yet been comprehensively revealed. Here we used multiple reanalysis datasets to investigate the long-term shift of seasonal-mean zonal-mean ITCZ location in this region from 1980 to 2014, and to assess the influences on black carbon distribution and the resultant health impact in terms of premature mortality. Results show that recent human-related equatorial warming contributed to an equatorward shift (∼2.1°) of ITCZ location in Maritime Continent. Spatially, the equatorward shift of ITCZ reduced surface black carbon concentration over the maritime area by enhancing updrafts and wet deposition, but raised the concentration in the continental area by inhibiting updrafts. Meanwhile, anomalous low-level northeasterlies weakened summer circulation and prevented black carbon from being transported to the Philippines. Our results also suggest that the equatorward shift decreased ∼13% of black carbon-associated monthly premature mortality in maritime countries, but increased ∼6% of that in continental countries based on the population and mortality rate in 2010. We therefore recommend considering climate change impacts in the design of adaptation strategies against regional air pollution.

Simulated stable water isotopes during the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods using AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso

Abstract. Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM withdrawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

An Intertropical Convergence Zone shift controlled the terrestrial material supply on the Ninetyeast Ridge

Abstract. Among various climate drivers, direct evidence for the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) control of sediment supply on the millennial scale is lacking, and the changes in ITCZ migration demonstrated in paleoclimate records need to be better investigated. Here, we use clay minerals and Sr–Nd isotopes obtained from a gravity core on the Ninetyeast Ridge to track the corresponding source variations and analyze the relationship between terrestrial material supply and climatic changes. On the glacial–interglacial scale, chemical weathering weakened during the North Atlantic cold-climate periods and falling sea level hindered the transport of smectite into the study area due to the exposure of Andaman and Nicobar Islands. However, the influence of the South Asian monsoon on the sediment supply was not obvious on the millennial scale. We suggest that the north–south migration of the ITCZ controlled the rainfall in Myanmar and further directly determined the supply of clay minerals on the millennium scale because the transport of smectite was highly connected with the ITCZ location; thus, the regional shift of the ITCZ induced an abnormal increase in the smectite percentage during the late Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in our records. The smectite percentage in the studied core is similar to distinct ITCZ records but different in some periods, revealing that regional changes in the ITCZ were significantly obvious, the ITCZ is not a simple north–south displacement, and closer connections occurred between the Northern–Southern Hemisphere in the eastern Indian Ocean during the late LGM.

Observed Zonal Variations of the Relationship between ITCZ Position and Meridional Temperature Contrast

While the zonal-mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is well explained using the zonal-mean energetic framework, the regional variations of the ITCZ have been more difficult to characterize. We show a simple metric, the interhemispheric tropical sea surface temperature (SST) contrast, is useful for estimating the local ITCZ position over seasonal and interannual timescales in modern observations. We demonstrate a linear correspondence between the SST contrast and ITCZ position across oceanic sectors. Though consistently linear, the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to the SST contrast varies from ~1°/K to ~7°/K depending on location. We also find that the location of the Western Pacific interannual ITCZ is negatively correlated with the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean. This result may help put constraints on past and future regional migrations of the ITCZ.

A 125-ka record of northern South American precipitation and the role of high-to-low latitude teleconnections

The occurrence of rapid last glacial temperature shifts in both Greenland ice and subpolar marine sediment cores, so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles, is evidence of a tight regional climate connectivity in these northern latitudes. By contrast, processes behind high-to-low-latitude teleconnections during the D-O cycles are less well understood, due to imprecisions in cross-dating marine and ice core records and a general lack of solid multi-proxy records from the tropical region. Here we aim to study the response of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system to D-O variability by using a sediment core from the southern Caribbean Sea, located under the direct influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). During D-O cycles, abrupt shifts in the deposition of fine-grained terrigenous material sourced from the Orinoco and Amazon rivers are recognized. These sedimentary changes were associated with fluctuations in both the ITCZ location and the AMOC strength through their respective influence on the hydroclimate of northern South America and strength of ocean currents delivering fluvial material to the study site. Stable oxygen isotope data further suggest increase in the upper ocean temperatures in the southeastern Caribbean Sea during stadial events. As these warming trends correlate with Antarctic temperatures, they seem to contain imprints of the bipolar seesaw and AMOC variability, demonstrating that our core location was influenced by processes prevalent in both hemispheres.

Radiative feedbacks on land surface change and associated tropical precipitation shifts

AbstractChanges in land surface albedo and land surface evaporation modulate the atmospheric energy budget by changing temperatures, water vapor, clouds, snow and ice cover, and the partitioning of surface energy fluxes. Here idealized perturbations to land surface properties are imposed in a global model to understand how such forcings drive shifts in zonal mean atmospheric energy transport and zonal mean tropical precipitation. For a uniform decrease in global land albedo, the albedo forcing and a positive water vapor feedback contribute roughly equally to increased energy absorption at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while radiative changes due to the temperature and cloud cover response provide a negative feedback and energy loss at TOA. Decreasing land albedo causes a northwards shift in the zonal mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The combined effects on ITCZ location of all atmospheric feedbacks roughly cancel for the albedo forcing; the total ITCZ shift is comparable to that predicted for the albedo forcing alone. For an imposed increase in evaporative resistance that reduces land evaporation, low cloud cover decreases in the northern mid-latitudes and more energy is absorbed at TOA there; longwave loss due to warming provides a negative feedback on the TOA energy balance and ITCZ shift. Imposed changes in land albedo and evaporative resistance modulate fundamentally different aspects of the surface energy budget. However, the pattern of TOA radiation changes due to the water vapor and air temperature responses are highly correlated for these two forcings because both forcings lead to near-surface warming.

Tropical Cyclone Frequency Under Varying SSTs in Aquaplanet Simulations

AbstractGlobal tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is investigated in a 50‐km‐resolution aquaplanet model forced by zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST). TC frequency per unit area is found to be proportional to the Coriolis parameter at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as defined by the latitude of maximum precipitation. As the latitude of maximum SST is shifted northward from the equator, the precipitation maximum moves northward and TC frequency increases. When the SST maximum is shifted northward past 25°N, the precipitation maximum remains between 15°N and 20°N, and TC frequency per unit area is approximately constant. When applied to observed precipitation and SST data, the same scaling captures a substantial fraction of observed TCs. Results suggest that future changes in TC activity will be modulated by changes in the large‐scale circulation, and in particular that the ITCZ location is an important determinant of the number of TCs.

Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to climate change.

Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art (CMIP6) climate models and document a robust zonally-varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean, and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The zonally-varying response is consistent with changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport, and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator. Our analysis provides insight about mechanisms influencing the future position of the tropical rainbelt, and may allow for more robust projections of climate change impacts.

The Effect of Atmosphere‐Ocean Coupling on the Sensitivity of the ITCZ to Convective Mixing

AbstractThe Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a discontinuous, zonal precipitation band that plays a crucial role in the global hydrological cycle. Previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) aquaplanets show the ITCZ is sensitive to convective mixing, but such a framework is energetically inconsistent. Studies also show that atmosphere‐ocean coupling reduces the sensitivity of the ITCZ to hemispherically asymmetric forcing. We investigate the effect of atmosphere‐ocean coupling on the sensitivity of the ITCZ to convective mixing using an idealized modeling framework with an Ekman‐driven ocean energy transport (OET). Coupling reduces the sensitivity of the ITCZ location to convective mixing due to SST changes. In prescribed‐SST simulations reducing convective mixing promotes a double ITCZ, while in coupled simulations, it increases the meridional SST gradient which promotes an equatorward ITCZ shift. Prescribing OET in additional experiments has a minimal effect on the sensitivity of the ITCZ location to mixing but does increase the sensitivity of the ITCZ intensity by constraining the net‐downward surface energy flux. Decreasing convective mixing increases net‐downward shortwave cloudy‐sky radiation associated with increased latent heat fluxes and an intensified ITCZ. For simulations analyzed the atmospheric energy input framework is inadequate to study ITCZ dynamics due to the contribution of transient eddies to the atmospheric energy transport. Prescribing SST or OET may strengthen the sensitivity of the ITCZ to a change in parameterization or atmospheric forcing. Future modeling studies investigating the precipitation response to such changes should be aware of the potential sensitivity of their results to atmosphere‐ocean interactions.

Variations in Precipitating Convective Feature Populations with ITCZ Width in the Pacific Ocean

AbstractMany recent studies have aimed to better understand changes in the characteristics of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), including ITCZ location, width, and precipitation intensity. However, very few studies have looked at the relationship between characteristics of convection within the ITCZ and ITCZ width. The present work uses information from an ITCZ identification database and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation feature (PF) database to quantify variations in convective characteristics across the ITCZ in the Pacific Ocean. Data are partitioned into wide and narrow ITCZ regimes to quantify differences in convection between different ITCZ regimes. Under the wide regime, convection deeper than 5 km, with areas greater than 100 km2, or stratiform rain fractions greater than 0.5 is, on average, 24%, 23%, and 12% more frequent, respectively. In the narrow regime, the signal is reversed, with average increases in the frequency of convection with heights below 5 km, areas less than 100 km2, or stratiform rain fractions less than 0.5 of 15%, 4%, and 6%, respectively. Positive and negative anomalies in columnar water vapor (CWV) and sea surface temperature (SST) across the ITCZ are observed in the wide and narrow regimes, respectively. There is also a strong positive correlation between an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and ITCZ width anomalies, with wide (narrow) ITCZs occurring during warm (cold) phases of ENSO. This implies that the strengthening and weakening of the Walker circulation associated with ENSO may play a role in modulating the convective populations that contribute to the Pacific ITCZ width variations.

Seasonal and interannual variations of the intertropical convergence zone over the Indian Ocean based on an energetic perspective

The climate of tropical regions is significantly affected by migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) whose location can be understood based on an energetic perspective. The ITCZ location depends on the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport (AET) and the equatorial net energy input ($$\hbox {NEI}_0$$). Using ERA-Interim dataset for the period 1980–2018, the ITCZ location over the Indian Ocean in different seasons and its migration are investigated. The cross-equatorial AET and the $$\hbox {NEI}_0$$ over the Indian Ocean are analyzed to determine the location of the ITCZ based on the atmospheric energy balance. Based on zonal mean maximum precipitation, the annual mean location of the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean is found in the Southern Hemisphere (approximately at 5.5$${}^{\circ }$$ S), while in some seasons, a double ITCZ forms. During the period 1980–2018, the annual mean location of the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean has migrated toward the equator by approximately 1$${}^{\circ }$$, although it is not statistically significant. The largest meridional migration of the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean occurs with the period of 12 months, showing seasonal migration of the ITCZ associated with the monsoon circulation. The location of maximum precipitation over the Indian Ocean is different from that of the energy flux equator (EFE), such that the EFE is always located north of the location of maximum precipitation. This is partly due to the fact that only the mean meridional circulation (MMC) component of the energy flux is considered to compute the EFE. Variations of the cross-equatorial AET and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) are not consistently correlated, while variations of the $$\hbox {NEI}_0$$ over the Indian Ocean and the ONI are quite consistent. Over the Indian Ocean, variation of the cross-equatorial AET dominates interannual variation of the ITCZ location, while variation of the $$\hbox {NEI}_0$$ dominates seasonal variation of the ITCZ location.

South Asian monsoon response to weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate

Observational records and climate model projections reveal a considerable decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Changes in the AMOC can have a significant impact on the global climate. Sustained warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions is projected to weaken the AMOC, which in turn can lead to changes in the location of Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), oceanic and atmospheric large-scale circulation, tropical precipitation and regional monsoons. Using proxy records, observations and CMIP6 simulations of IITM Earth System Model (IITM-ESM), we investigate the changes in the AMOC and associated changes in the large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns over the South Asian monsoon region. Transient CO2 simulation and additional model sensitivity experiments with realistic surface heat and freshwater perturbation anomalies under the experimental protocol of Flux Anomaly Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) performed with IITM-ESM reveal a decline in the strength of AMOC. The weakening of AMOC is associated with enhanced heat and freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic resulting in the reduction of northward oceanic heat transport and an enhanced northward atmospheric heat transport. Changes in AMOC lead to weakening of large-scale north–south temperature gradient and regional land-sea thermal gradient, which in turn weaken the regional Hadley circulation and, monsoon circulation over the South Asian region. Both the FAFMIP and transient CO2 experiments reveal consistent results of weakening South Asian Monsoon circulation with a decline of AMOC, while precipitation exhibits contrasting responses as precipitation changes are dominated by the thermodynamic response. The suite of observational and numerical analysis provides a mechanistic hypothesis for the weakening of South Asian monsoon circulation concomitant with a weakening of AMOC in a warming climate.

Efficacy of black carbon aerosols: the role of shortwave cloud feedback

Using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the effectiveness of black carbon (BC) aerosols in warming the planet relative to CO2 forcing. We find that a 60-fold increase in the BC aerosol mixing ratio from the present-day levels leads to the same equilibrium global mean surface warming (∼4.1 K) as for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, the radiative forcing is larger (∼5.5 Wm−2) in the BC case relative to the doubled CO2 case (∼3.8 Wm−2) for the same surface warming indicating the efficacy (a metric for measuring the effectiveness) of BC aerosols to be less than CO2. The lower efficacy of BC aerosols is related to the differences in the shortwave (SW) cloud feedback: negative in the BC case but positive in the CO2 case. In the BC case, the negative SW cloud feedback is related to an increase in the tropical low clouds which is associated with a northward shift (∼7°) of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Further, we show that in the BC case fast precipitation suppression offsets the surface temperature mediated precipitation response and causes ∼8% net decline in the global mean precipitation. Our study suggests that a feedback between the location of ITCZ and the interhemispheric temperature could exist, and the consequent SW cloud feedback could be contributing to the lower efficacy of BC aerosols. Therefore, an improved representation of low clouds in climate models is likely the key to understand the global climate sensitivity to BC aerosols.

Differing Impacts of Black Carbon and Sulfate Aerosols on Global Precipitation and the ITCZ Location via Atmosphere and Ocean Energy Perturbations

AbstractThis study explores the effects of black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) on global and tropical precipitation with a climate model. Results show that BC causes a decrease in global annual mean precipitation, consisting of a large negative tendency of a fast precipitation response scaling with instantaneous atmospheric absorption and a small positive tendency of a slow precipitation response scaling with the BC-caused global warming. SO4 also causes a decrease in global annual mean precipitation, which is dominated by a slow precipitation response corresponding to the surface cooling caused by SO4. BC causes a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), mainly through a fast precipitation response, whereas SO4 causes a southward shift of the ITCZ through a slow precipitation response. The displacements of the ITCZ caused by BC and SO4 are found to linearly correlate with the corresponding changes in cross-equatorial heat transport in the atmosphere, with a regression coefficient of about −3° PW−1, implying that the ITCZ shifts occur as manifestations of the atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport changes in response to the BC and SO4 forcings. The atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport anomaly caused by BC is basically driven by the BC-induced interhemispheric contrast in instantaneous atmospheric absorption, whereas the atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport anomaly caused by SO4 is mostly attributable to the response of evaporation. It is found that a slab-ocean model exaggerates the cross-equatorial heat transport response in the atmosphere and the ITCZ shift both for BC and SO4, as compared with an ocean-coupled model. This underscores the importance of using an ocean-coupled model in modeling studies of the tropical climate response to aerosols.

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation in an Aquaplanet‐Like General Circulation Model With and Without Continents

AbstractWe have conducted experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 configured as an aquaplanet, with the sun at March equinox, in order to study how the model Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) responds to (i) the introduction of continents and (ii) realistic sea surface temperature (SST) distribution. Model results are compared with ERA‐Interim reanalysis and analyzed in terms of the moist static energy (MSE) budget to study the growth and propagation of MJO. With idealized zonally symmetric SST, the aquaplanet model produces a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and an MJO‐like mode with variance at intraseasonal (30‐ to 96‐day) periods and zonal wave number 1. When we introduce continents with realistic orography and interactive surface temperature, soil moisture, and albedo, the variance of MJO is mainly confined to zonal wave numbers 1 and 2 but reduced by a factor of 3 due to weaker boundary layer moisture convergence. With prescribed climatological January SST boundary condition (which includes Indo‐west Pacific warm pool) in the presence of continents, model MJO variance is enhanced and distributed across zonal wave numbers 1 to 5, in closer agreement with observation. Thus, the presence of land by itself is not enough, but realistic SST distribution is necessary for improved space‐time characteristics of model MJO. Both in simulations and ERA‐Interim data, meridional and vertical advection of MSE promotes eastward movement of MJO. In the model experiments, meridional advection of low‐level MSE anomaly is most significant in the vicinity of the ITCZ, indicating the importance of processes that determine the location of (single or double) ITCZ.

Competing Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation Effects on Southwest Madagascan Rainfall During the Last Deglaciation

AbstractThe global paleomonsoon concept predicts an antiphase response of monsoon rainfall in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at timescales where there is asymmetric solar forcing and/or asymmetric hemispheric temperature changes. However, as different monsoon systems have different sensitivities to local, regional, and global forcing, rainfall response may vary regionally, particularly during large global climatic changes such as the last deglaciation where warming occurred in both hemispheres. Despite its role as a key Southern Hemisphere counterpart to the Arabian and Indian summer monsoons, the behavior of the summer monsoon in the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean during the last deglaciation is unknown. Therefore, we present a new high‐resolution, precisely dated, and replicated speleothem stable isotope record from Tsimanampesotse National Park in southwest Madagascar that covers the last deglaciation. We show that speleothem growth phases respond largely to movements of the Southern Hemisphere summer Hadley circulation (summer extent of the tropical rainbelt/mean Intertropical Convergence Zone location), with some contribution from sea surface temperature changes at key times, such as during the Bølling‐Allerød. In contrast, speleothem δ18Ο responds primarily to sea surface temperature, in particular the location of the deep atmospheric convection isotherm, while summer Hadley circulation changes take a secondary role. Separating the varying influences of temperature and atmospheric circulation in controlling southwest Madagascan rainfall is critical to understanding rainfall variability in both the past and the future.

Sensitivity of the ITCZ Location to Ocean Forcing Via Q‐Flux Green's Function Experiments

AbstractThe sensitivity of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to forcing patterns is important for understanding changes in tropical rainfall. A set of Green's function experiments reveals hat this sensitivity is asymmetric depending on which hemisphere (northern or southern) the forcing is applied. Northern hemisphere forcings produce a much larger response than southern hemisphere forcings of similar magnitude. The response of the ITCZ position to forcing can be broken into linear and nonlinear components, and it is shown that the asymmetry arises from the nonlinear component. The linear and nonlinear response components have similar magnitudes, but the pattern of the nonlinear component is insensitive to the location of the forcing, such that it amplifies the response to northern hemisphere forcings and dampens the response to southern hemisphere forcings. This asymmetry hints at an intrinsic mode of the climate system, depending on the current climate state.

Vertical Resolution Refinement in an Aqua‐Planet and Its Effect on the ITCZ

AbstractThe General Circulation Model ECHAM is used to study the effects of three refined vertical resolutions on convection in the tropics and on the structure of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Additional vertical resolutions have 76, 134, or 192 levels, which is over four times the default resolution of 47 levels. New levels are placed in the troposphere only. The simulations are conducted on an aqua‐planet with equator symmetrical, time and zonal independent sea surface temperature, and without a yearly solar cycle. Whereas the default vertical resolution shows a double ITCZ, refining the vertical resolution yields an equatorward shift of the ITCZ. The ITCZ converges to its equatorial position with 134 levels. The sensitivity of the ITCZ to the vertical resolution is traced back first and foremost to the mixing formulation in the convection scheme. Here a higher number of vertical levels leads to a stronger mixing between the updraft and its environment by design, which favors an equatorward position of the ITCZ. Differences in the relative humidity profiles explain the remaining differences in the ITCZ location. These differences can mostly be eliminated by making clouds transparent.

Surface wind speed: trend and climatology of Brazil from 1980–2014

ABSTRACTThis study examines the spatial and temporal surface (10 m) wind speed trend characteristics of Brazil during 1980–2014 using two in situ and three climate reanalysis datasets. Nonparametric regression is used to understand how mean seasonal and annual wind speeds change over space and time across Brazil. Overall temporal linear trends show that station and reanalysis products exhibit varying seasonal and annual wind speed trends. A geographic examination displays statistically significant (P < 0.05) positive (negative) mean wind speed trends for equatorial (southeastern and central) Brazil. Quantile regression is performed to interpret how wind speed changed across different percentiles. Results show that the largest positive and negative spatial wind speed trends occur for the upper percentiles (75 and 95%). The spatial and temporal trends and correlations described could be interconnected to possible changes developing with the location of Intertropical Convergence Zone and South Atlantic Anticyclone over the study region. Results have implications for optimizing renewable wind energy production and development across Brazil.