Local Projection Method Research Articles

Government size and the effectiveness of fiscal policy: the bigger the better?

Abstract This study investigates the effect of government size, as measured by the tax revenue to gross domestic product (tax-GDP) ratio, on output responses to increases in government purchases. First, we show that in a standard static neoclassical model, the stimulus effect of fiscal expansion on output increases with the tax-GDP ratio. This finding is quantitatively confirmed using a dynamic neoclassical model with standard functional forms and parameter values. To empirically test the theoretical findings, we analyze the responses of macroeconomic variables to an unanticipated increase in government purchases for 12 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries during 1985–2019 using a state-dependent local projection method. The estimation results reveal that while output responses to an unanticipated fiscal expansion are significantly positive when the tax-GDP ratio is high, they are statistically indistinguishable from zero when the ratio is low. Overall, our findings suggest that fiscal expansion can stimulate output more effectively at high tax rates, unlike the well-known predictions of the traditional Keynesian model.

Do capital controls absorb global financial shocks? Evidence from emerging market economies

ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of capital controls as an effective policy instrument to insulate Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) from global financial shocks. Using state-dependent Local Projection method on a sample of emerging market economies, we find that economies with strict inflow controls are able to moderate the effects of global financial shock on GDP, real housing prices and private credit. We also find that monetary policy responds countercyclically to global financial shock in strict capital inflow controls state, which provides support for the use of inflow controls as a macroeconomic stabilising policy tool. Further, the results suggest that individual asset category inflow controls significantly contribute to overall effectiveness of capital inflow controls to act as shock absorbers. The findings suggests that the policy makers in EMEs may consider capital controls as an effective policy tool to increase the resilience of their economies against global financial shocks.

Dynamic effects of fiscal consolidations on income inequality in Sub-Saharan African countries

ABSTRACT This study explores the short-to-medium-term effects of fiscal consolidation on income inequality in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2021 by applying the quantile local projection method at the median. The study finds that periods of fiscal consolidation reduce inequality in the short run, with spending-driven consolidation having a positive effect on income parity, while tax-driven consolidations have an insignificant impact. The study concludes that the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation in SSA countries are “progressive,” implying that well-designed and targeted fiscal measures contribute to more equitable income distribution.

The effects of weather shock on income inequality: evidence from Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies

This study empirically investigates the dynamic effects of weather shock on within‐country income inequality. Using panel data of 17 Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies, we estimate impulse responses via the local projection method. Moreover, temperature and precipitation shocks, defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms, are exploited to measure country‐specific weather shocks. The empirical results reveal the following. First, temperature and precipitation shocks deteriorate income inequality measured by the Gini index; these effects are long‐lasting. Moreover, asymmetric effects exist: heat waves and droughts more significantly increase income inequality than cold waves and floods. Lastly, current redistribution policies do not seem to effectively mitigate those adverse effects.

Drivers of international fiscal spillovers

AbstractThis paper investigates the drivers of international fiscal spillovers across 62 countries for the period covering 1970–2021. Using the local projections method at the country‐pair level, fiscal spillovers are estimated as the cumulative response of the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in spillover destination countries to a unit shock in the real government spending growth in spillover source countries. Pairwise estimation results (for 3782 country pairs) suggest that there are statistically significant fiscal spillovers for 36% of country pairs, whereas this ratio is 49% for country pairs within the euro area. For the median country pair, a unit shock of real government spending growth in the spillover source country results in about 0.09% of the increase in the real GDP growth of the spillover destination country, whereas this fiscal‐spillover estimate goes up to 0.42% when the spillover source is in the euro area, and the spillover destination is an oil producing country. A secondary investigation based on the Heckman selection model is used to identify the drivers of fiscal spillovers across country pairs, where the existence of statistically significant fiscal spillovers is shown to be connected to the proximity between countries. The size of fiscal spillovers is further shown to increase with the initial (as of 1970) country size, trade openness, and government size of the spillover source country, whereas it decreases with the initial country size and trade openness of the spillover destination country. Important policy suggestions follow.

Geopolitical risk and stock prices

This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risk on stock prices of 29 economies by using the local projections method for the monthly period between 1985M1-2023M9. The results show that a positive unit shock of global geopolitical risk (normalized to one standard deviation) reduces stock prices (normalized to one standard deviation) in a statistically significant way by 0.80 in Latvia, 0.71 in China, 0.62 in the Euro Area, 0.50 in Sweden, 0.42 in the United Kingdom, 0.39 in the United States, 0.38 in Switzerland, 0.34 in Israel, 0.28 in Canada, and 0.21 in Denmark in a year following the shock, whereas it increases those only in Iceland by 0.28 that can be used to hedge against any geopolitical risk. Subsample analyses further suggest that the negative effects of the same shock exist in several economies (including the United States, China and Euro Area) during the first half of the sample period that coincides with the geopolitical events that the United States is involved with, whereas they only exist in Russia, Poland, Euro Area and the United Kingdom for the second half of the sample period, suggesting that the Russo–Ukrainian War has mostly affected the stock prices in these nearby economies. It is implied that the geographical location of geopolitical events as well as the countries involved are important indicators to understand the effects of any global geopolitical risk on stock prices.

Whatever-it-takes policymaking during the pandemic

Central banks across the globe introduced large-scale asset purchase programs to address the unprecedented circumstances experienced during the pandemic. Many of these programs were announced as open-ended to shock-and-awe market participants and restore confidence in financial markets. This paper examines whether these whatever-it-takes announcements had larger effects than announcements with explicit limits on scale. We use a narrative approach to categorize announcements made by twenty-two central banks, and event study, propensity-score-matching, and local projection methods to measure the short-term effects of policy announcements on exchange rates and sovereign bond yields. We find that on average a central bank’s first whatever-it-takes announcement lowers 10-year bond yields by an additional 47 basis points relative to size-limited announcements, suggesting that communication of potential policy scale matters. Our results for yields hold for both advanced and emerging economies, while exchange rates go in opposing directions, muting their response when we group all countries together.

Public expenditure multipliers and informality

This paper investigates the role of informality in affecting the magnitude of the public expenditure multiplier in a panel of 142 countries, using the local projections method. We find a strong negative relationship between the degree of informality and the size of the multiplier. This result holds irrespective of the level of economic development and institutional quality and is robust to additional country characteristics such as trade and financial openness and exchange rate regime. In a two-sector New-Keynesian model, we rationalize this result by showing that fiscal shocks raise the relative price of official goods, thereby shifting demand towards the informal sector. This reallocation effect increases with the level of informality, because a larger informal sector is associated with a stronger appreciation of relative prices in response to fiscal shocks, and thus reduces the multiplier.

On the GDP Effects of Severe Physical Hazards

We assess the impacts from physical hazards (or severe weather events) on economic activity in a panel of 98 countries using local projection methods. Proxying the strength of an event by the monetary damages it caused, we find severe weather events to reduce the level of GDP. For most events in the EM-DAT data set the effects are small. The largest events in our sample (above the 90th percentile of damages) bring down the level of GDP by 0.5 percent for several years without recovery to trend. Smaller events (below the 90th percentile) see a less immediate decrease in initial years (0.1 percent) that progressively widens to become similar to the effect of larger disasters after 10 years. Climatological hazards (droughts and forest fires) appear to have the largest effects. These findings are robust across country groupings by development and alternative measures of the strength of the physical hazard.

The distributional effects of labour market deregulation: Wage share and fixed-term contracts

Since the 1980s, most advanced economies have massively ‘flexibilized’ their labour markets by reducing the protection against layoffs and introducing temporary and flexible contracts. Concurrently, a well-established economic stylized fact – the stability of the wage share of income – has been challenged as empirical evidence reveals a substantial decline in labour share across numerous countries. In this study, we aim to empirically investigate the causal link between these two phenomena by examining the impact of changes in the regulation of fixed-term contracts, as measured by variation over time in the temporary contracts EPL index, on the functional distribution of income. We employ Jordà’s local projection method for a panel of 18 advanced countries over the period 1985–2019 and show that reforms that deregulate fixed-term contracts consistently reduce the wage share.

Financial stress and shadow economy: A global study from a new worldwide database

This paper is likely the first attempt to examine the dynamic behavior of the shadow economy following a financial stress shock in a global setting. We employ a novel Financial Stress Index that reflects not only the occurrence but also the intensity of financial stress. By using the local projection method on a global sample of 106 countries during the 1990–2018 period, we find that the shadow economy expands significantly following financial stress and this effect is persistent. However, this pattern is only present in advanced economies. The increase in the shadow economy in emerging and developing countries is transitory, and the magnitude of impact is much lower. We also document the non-linear relationship between the shadow economy and financial stress.

The heterogeneous impact of oil price shocks on traditional and modern renewable energy in developed and developing countries

The prevalence of renewable energy helps solve environmental problems and strengthens energy security with less dependence on nonrenewable energy, mainly fossil fuels. One important aspect is that renewable energy consists of two components: traditional and modern renewable energy. This paper examines the effects of an oil price shock on these two different types of renewable energy consumption by applying a local projection method to panel data from 147 countries during the period from 1993 to 2015. Our results show that the effects of an oil price shock depend on the development level and the dependence on nonrenewable energy. In highly nonrenewable energy-dependent countries, traditional renewable energy is sensitive to oil price changes, irrespective of their development levels. However, both traditional and modern renewable energy are insensitive to oil price changes in less nonrenewable energy-dependent countries, regardless of their development levels. Meanwhile, an oil price shock positively affects modern renewable energy in developed countries with high dependence on nonrenewable energy, but not in developing countries. These results provide important policy implications for policymakers and investors to foster modern renewable energy and call for balancing macroeconomic development with environmental benefits and costs.

Fault Detection Algorithm Based on Dynamic Global–Local Preserving Projection

Industrial system operations usually have dynamic characteristics. If these characteristics are ignored, the performance of fault detection degrades. Herein, the fault-detection algorithm of dynamic global–local preserving projection (DGLPP) is employed to solve the problem mentioned. First, time-delay data are added to the sample to form an augmentation matrix and characterize the system dynamics. Second, the dimensionality of the augmented matrix is reduced using global–local preserving projection. The dimensionality-reduction method can preserve the data’s global and local structures. Then, a DGLPP model is built using the dimensionality-reduced data. Moreover, Hotelling’s T2 and squared prediction error (SPE) statistics are used for fault detection. Finally, this method is used to detect the fault in the Tennessee Eastman (TE) process. The experimental results show that the DGLPP method has an enhanced fault detection rate. Moreover, the fault-detection effects of the DGLPP method are better than those of the principal component analysis (PCA), local preserving projection (LPP), and global–local preserving projection (GLPP) methods.

Sustainable development and economic disasters

This paper argues that economic disasters represent a considerable risk for sustainability objectives. To address this issue, two empirical methods are used. First, the relationship between economic disasters and sustainable development is tested by panel regression. Second, the local projection method is used to explore the dynamics, i.e., the behavior of sustainable development indices for ten years after the onset of a typical economic disaster. The results suggest that the relationship between economic disasters and sustainable development is negative, and that the effects of economic disasters are much larger than the effects of “ordinary” economic crises. Moreover, sustainability indices continue to decline even after a typical economic disaster ends. Understanding the complex relationship between economic disasters and sustainability can help policymakers develop strategies to mitigate these adverse effects and ensure the transition to sustainability.

Regional fiscal spillovers: The role of trade linkages

This paper examines how fiscal shocks in a given country affect foreign regions through regional trade linkages. Applying the local projection method to a panel of 222 NUTS-2 regions in 20 European countries during the period 1993–2020, we find that countries-to-regions fiscal spillovers are positive, statistically significant, persistent, and non-negligible in size. In addition, fiscal spillovers tend to be larger when the recipient region experiences a recession, when monetary policy of the recipient country is at the zero-lower-bound, and when the recipient region and the source country are both part of the European Monetary Union.

Political relations and trade: New evidence from Australia, China, and the United States

AbstractThis article employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in the US–China political relations on bilateral trade between Australia and China. Three scenarios are considered to reflect the evolution of US geopolitical strategies in recent years such as “America First”, “China Threat Theory” and “The Protection of US Allies”. The simulation results illustrate that worsening the US–China political relations has a negative impact on Australian exports to and imports from China. It is also found that economic conditions in the US play a more important role in the transmission of this impact than those in China and Australia. In addition, various options are explored to check the robustness of the findings in this article.

Total factor productivity and structural reforms: Evidence from advanced economies sector‐level data

AbstractThis paper computes a new measure of capacity utilization‐adjusted Total Factor Productivity (TFP) using sector‐level data from a sample of 18 Advanced Economies and 24 industries between 1970 and 2014. We then empirically examine the impact of structural reforms (labor and product market) on TFP by means of the local projection method. Structural reforms follow a narrative‐base construction which have several advantages in our context. Results show that structural reforms positively impact TFP, particularly the liberalization of employment protection legislation for regular workers. The effect of reforms affects both changes in resource misallocation across sectors (the between effect) and within sectors (the within effect). The TFP‐effect of both types of reforms varies depending on the phase of the business cycle prevailing at the time the reform is implemented. Finally, our findings are robust to a wide range sensitivity checks.

Pandemics and economic turmoil in the short‐run: The role of fiscal space

AbstractWe estimate, by means of the local projection method, the short to medium‐term economic impact of previous pandemics in a sample of 170 countries during the 2000–2018 period. We find that the output effect has been significant (reaching over −2 percent after 5 years) and persistent. The impact has varied across income groups, with pandemics affecting more developed countries through a big negative impact on investment. Moreover, we explored the relevance of fiscal space in affecting the negative economic impact of pandemics. To this end, we constructed new aggregate fiscal space variables based on a principal component analysis that combined several indicators. Results suggest that the initial fiscal landscape of countries was a key ingredient in softening the economic impact of past pandemics. We believe that this paper's findings are useful to inform policymakers about what can be expected in the new normal that is following the recent COVID‐19 pandemic, particularly in a context of increasingly constrained fiscal space.

Impacts of monetary policy on housing prices in five emerging economies during the Covid-19 pandemic

Purpose This paper aims to examine the dynamic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policy on real house price indices in five emerging economies, namely, Brazil, China, Thailand, Turkey and South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the local projection method with a panel data set of these countries spanning from January 2020 to July 2021. Findings The number of COVID-19 confirmed positive cases raised housing prices, whereas government containment measures reduced them. Both conventional and unconventional monetary policy implemented by central banks to cope with the COVID-19 helped increase housing prices. These effects were strengthened by the US monetary policy via globalized financial markets. Originality/value First, while previous researches typically concentrated on developed countries, the authors investigate emerging economies where proportionally more people were badly affected by the pandemic. Second, a panel data set of five emerging economies enabled the authors to examine the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 crisis on housing prices. Third, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the influences of easing monetary policy on housing prices in emerging economies during the pandemic.

Economic disasters and inequality: a note

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of economic disasters, captured by cumulative decline in output of at least 10% over 1 or more years, on disposable income inequality of a sample of 99 countries over the annual period of 1960–2017. Based on impulse response functions derived from a robust local projections method, we find that economic disasters increase inequality by 4%, with the overall effect being statistically significant and highly persistent over a period of 20 years following the shock. When we repeat the analysis by categorizing the 99 countries based on income groups and regions, we find that the strongest effects are felt by high-income countries (8%), and in Europe, Central Asia and North America (16%) taken together, as primarily driven by ex-socialist economies. Though of lesser magnitude, statistically significant increases in inequality are also observed for low-, and upper-middle-income economies, and the regions of Latin America and Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia, and to some extent also for Sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings have important policy implications. Our findings suggest that the avoidance of economic crises is of paramount importance to ensure the sustainability of the welfare state, which in turn would allow for sound redistributive policies to reduce inequality, which can also help in indirectly reducing the negative impact of rare disasters on asset markets. In other words, our results have both economic and financial implications.