Local Currency Government Bond Research Articles

Determining the combined effect of financial system architecture, macroeconomic factors and governance on the development of local currency government bond market in Kenya

This study sought to examine the current state of the local currency government bond market in Kenya to determine the effects of financial system structure, macro-economic factors and the country’s governance on its development. The study used secondary data from the World Bank’s WDI and DataStream databases for the period 1998 to 2019. Descriptive statistics - applying trend analysis, measures of central tendency and dispersion and documents analysis were employed to conduct a stocktaking of Kenya's government bond market development since its inception, while multiple linear time series regression using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was employed to examine the determinants of the government bond market development in Kenya. In the findings, the combined model, corporate bond, political stability and general election were largely positively significant. Bank credit to the private sector and fiscal balance were positively significant, whereas inflation and interest capping were negatively significant at a 5 per cent confidence level. GDP_ growth rate was significant at 10 per cent. The study thus recommends that the government's efforts should focus towards building the financial markets, controlling its micro and macro-economic factors and building a strong administrative structure in its quest to achieve its Vision 2030 objectives of financial independence. It is this structure that will encourage bond market growth and liquidity that will, in future, enable them to achieve financial independence.

Foreign participation in local currency government bond markets in emerging Asia: Benefits and pitfalls to market stability

With the objective of reducing the problem of currency mismatch, emerging Asian economies have made a concerted effort to develop the local currency government bond (LCGB) markets since the early 2000s. Since then, foreign investors have had a substantial and growing presence in the markets. This paper examines the effects of foreign participation in the LCGB markets on the yield spread. We show that the effect of high foreign participation on market stability is non-monotonic: During tranquil periods, high foreign participation helps reduce yield spread; however, in times of market distress, high foreign participation asymmetrically exacerbates the widening of the yield spread by a larger magnitude. This effect could be due to foreign investors' concerns about currency risk. This is supported by the estimation that yield spread widening during market distress is mainly driven by the currency risk component, but not the credit risk component. Our results underscore the importance of broadening the domestic investor base in the region, and maintaining a manageable exchange rate expectation and central bank credibility.

The macroeconomic factors affecting government bond yield in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines

The government bond (GB) has become the most attractive investment portfolio option, even though many macroeconomic factors affect the bond yield. This paper aims to investigate the determining factor of local currency government bond yield by considering the inflation rate, credit default swap, stock market index, exchange rate, and volatility index. This study used 240 data panel from the Bloomberg stock market in the form of data panel covering Southeast developing countries, namely Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, for five years or sixty months from January 2015 to December 2019. Data analysis used recursive models and multivariate regression techniques using EViews software. The random effect model results revealed that change in the foreign exchange rate and volatility indexes affected, partially and simultaneously, the changes in the stock market index. The result also showed that changes in the stock market index, inflation rate, and credit default swap affected, partially and simultaneously, government bond yield changes. These results suggest that the government bond yield could be managed by controlling volatility index, foreign exchange rate, stock market index, inflation rates, and credit default swaps. This finding could provide an insight into the policymaker and fiscal authority on managing the risk of government bonds under control during high volatility or even making it reasonably lower. This result could contribute to the current research in the field of financial management. Acknowledgment It is the author’s pleasure to thank Muhammad Aulia SE MSc CSA® from the Ministry of Finance of Republic Indonesia, for his invaluable contribution to encourage this study and also to share the data required for this paper. He also delivers essential insights into improving the quality of this work. This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Credible Emerging Market Central Banks could Embrace Quantitative Easing to Fight COVID-19

Emerging economies are fighting COVID-19 and the economic sudden stop imposed by the containment and lockdown policies, in the same way as advanced economies. However, emerging markets also face large and rapid capital outflows as a result of the pandemic. This column argues that credible emerging market central banks could rely on purchases of local currency government bonds to support the needed health and welfare expenditures and fiscal stimulus. In countries with flexible exchange rate regimes and well-anchored inflation expectations, such quantitative easing would help ease financial conditions, while minimising the risks of large depreciations and spiralling inflation.

Heterogeneous Impact of Quantitative Easing on Government Bond Yields

Interest rates in many advanced countries have reached zero lower bound and this has led to the widespread use of unconventional monetary policies after the global crisis. Hence, it has been more and more important to better understand the effects of these policies on major economic variables and the transmission mechanism through which they influence the economy. This study analyses the impact of quantitative easing (QE) policies on local currency government bond yield in emerging market (EM) economies in a heterogeneous panel setting. An Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator is used that allows for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneous slopes. Model results show that government bond interest rates in EM economies are determined by country-specific factors such as central bank policy rate, inflation and budget deficit as well as external global factors such as US ten-year government bond yield and QE policies of advanced countries' central banks.

Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market

Local currency government bonds (OFZ bonds) are an important fixed-income instrument in Russia's financial markets. In this paper, based on granular data, we explore the development of the OFZ bond market with a focus on foreign investors. As this fixed-income market has experienced a liberalization of the domestic trading and settlement infrastructure, and weathered several episodes of market stresses since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the role of foreign investors can be observed along with these events. What we have found is that foreign investors had influenced the market before they became an important player and since then they have contributed to the development of the market while not necessarily destabilizing it in episodes of shocks.

Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market

Local currency government bonds (OFZ bonds) are an important fixed-income instrument in Russia’s financial markets. In this paper, based on granular data, we explore the development of the OFZ bond market with a focus on foreign investors. As this fixed-income market has experienced a liberalization of the domestic trading and settlement infrastructure, and weathered several episodes of market stresses since the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the role of foreign investors can be observed along with these events. What we have found is that foreign investors had influenced the market before they became an important player and since then they have contributed to the development of the market while not necessarily destabilizing it in episodes of shocks.

Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies

This study examines the effects of global financial conditions on the asset markets of five fragile emerging economies—Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey—known as the Fragile Five. We estimate a structural vector autoregressive model with a block exogeneity procedure using high-frequency daily data and Bayesian inference. Our primary findings are as follows. (i) Global financial risk shocks have significant effects on government bond yields, equity prices, CDS spreads, and exchange rates in the Fragile Five. (ii) The effects differ considerably across the fragile countries and the assets. (iii) These country differentiations are strongly related to macroeconomic fundamentals. Finally, (iv) global financial risk shocks have a greater immediate effect on local currency government bond and CDS markets than on FX and stock markets.

Emerging market local currency bond yields and foreign holdings – A fortune or misfortune?

The paper shows that foreign holdings of local currency government bonds in emerging market countries (EMs) have reduced bond yields but have somewhat increased yield volatility. Econometric analyses conducted from a sample of 13 EMs demonstrate that these results are robust and causal. We use an identification strategy exploiting the geography-based measure of EMs financial remoteness vis-à-vis major offshore financial centers as an instrumental variable for the foreign holdings variable. The results also show that, in countries with weak fiscal positions, foreign holdings are greatly associated with increased yield level. A case study using Poland data elaborates on the cross country findings.

Emerging Market Portfolio Flows: The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors

Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.

Emerging Market Portfolio Flows: The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors

Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.

Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis

Focusing on five major emerging markets, I investigate the interactions between credit default swap premiums, foreign exchange rates, local currency government bond spreads, and national stock market returns over the period 4/2/2007 to 8/27/2009. Empirical analysis indicates that bond markets, along with foreign exchange markets, were very dominant in the price discovery process during a common distressed period.

Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability

We examine the dynamics of emerging market (EM) local currency government bond yields for the last decade and a half as well as for three different phases (January 2000–December 2007, January 2008–April 2013, and since May 2013). We show that domestic factors have anchored EM local currency government bond yields, increasing the potential diversification benefit. Moreover, these yields have become relatively resilient to global risk aversion shocks. Yet, EM local currency government bond yields have been affected partly by very low US Treasury yields and are susceptible to the latter's increases.

Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period: a Fortune or Misfortune?

The paper shows that foreign holdings of local currency government bonds in emerging market countries (EMs) have reduced bond yields but have somewhat increased yield volatility in the post-Lehman period. Econometric analyses conducted from a sample of 12 EMs demonstrate that these results are robust and causal. We use an identification strategy exploiting the geography-based measure of EMs financial remoteness vis-à-vis major offshore financial centers as an instrumental variable for the foreign holdings variable.The results also show that, in countries with weak fiscal and external positions, foreign holdings are greatly associated with increased yield volatility. A case study using Poland data elaborates on the cross country findings.

Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period: A Fortune or Misfortune?

The paper shows that foreign holdings of local currency government bonds in emergingmarket countries (EMs) have reduced bond yields but have somewhat increased yieldvolatility in the post-Lehman period. Econometric analyses conducted from a sample of12 EMs demonstrate that these results are robust and causal. We use an identificationstrategy exploiting the geography-based measure of EMs financial remoteness vis-a-vismajor offshore financial centers as an instrumental variable for the foreign holdingsvariable.The results also show that, in countries with weak fiscal and external positions,foreign holdings are greatly associated with increased yield volatility. A case study usingPoland data elaborates on the cross country findings.

FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN LOCAL CURRENCY BOND MARKETS OF EMERGING ECONOMIES

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets (EMs) from 2000 to 2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 EMs show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in EMs and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.

ATTRACTING FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN ASIAN LOCAL CURRENCY BOND MARKETS: THE CASE OF THE ASIAN BOND FUND 2 INITIATIVE

AbstractThe Asian Bond Fund 2 (ABF2) is a $US2bn initiative by a group of central banks in Asia and the Pacific. To promote local currency government bond markets, the fund has been investing in 8 such markets in the region. These markets have made impressive strides since the fund's inception in 2005. The improvements may be traced in large part to overcoming a number of market impediments, including barriers to cross‐border investment. The ABF2 project has played an important catalytic role in market reforms aimed at removing these impediments. However, while the government bond markets have come of age, the corporate bond markets have remained immature. To develop, the immature markets would likely require the benefits of further opening up to regional issuance and investment flows.

Price Discovery in Emerging Financial Markets during the Global Mortgage Crisis

Focusing on five major emerging markets (EM), I investigate the interactions between credit default swap (CDS) premiums, foreign exchange (FX) parities, local currency government bond (LCB) spreads, and national stock market indices over the period 4/2/2007 to 8/27/2009. Empirical analysis indicates that the LCB markets, along with the FX markets, were very dominant in the price discovery process during a common distressed period. This finding is surprising and in sharp contrast with the literature on corporate studies. The analysis also shows that the markets were more efficient during the distressed period.

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in emerging markets and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in emerging markets and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.