Local Campaigns Research Articles

Launching a statewide Employment First initiative: Indiana’s work to include coalition

BACKGROUND: After decades of local, state and national efforts to increase employment outcomes for individuals with disabilities, progress has been slow, with a mere 17.9% of persons with a disability employed in 2020 compared to 61.8% for persons without a disability (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2021). Individuals with disabilities have demonstrated their abilities and desire to work, including those with significant disabilities, yet our country remains entrenched in outdated and ineffective models of day services (i.e., sheltered workshops, non-work programs) and precious public dollars continue to be used for these services that congregate and segregate individuals, pay subminimum wages, and deny individuals their human and civil rights. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to describe one state’s efforts to advance employment for working age individuals with disabilities through a statewide Employment First initiative called Work to Include. Indiana is now in its third year of this grassroots initiative driven by a coalition of self-advocates. Major activities of the initiative are discussed, including passing Indiana’s Employment First law, holding statewide Town Hall meetings, establishing 11 local Work to Include teams, developing and implementing a state Employment First plan, launching local and statewide Disability Employment Awareness month campaigns, using social media and webinars to disseminate information, hosting Employment First Summits, and collaborating with employers and state agencies to promote employment outcomes. CONCLUSION: Next steps toward systems change are discussed, including the establishment of an Employment First office at the state and securing an Executive Order from the governor to make the state a model employer.

Addiction as Disease

This Article advocates for federal funding of local public health campaigns based upon a disease model of addiction that incorporates findings from neuroscience, genetics, and public health. Rather than endorsing the idea that addiction stems from either immoral choices (the moral choice model) or a “hijacked” brain (the brain disease model), this Article offers a nuanced model that reflects its multifaceted etiology. I refer to this model as the “integrated disease model,” or IDM, as it explains addiction as a neurogenetic phenomenon but does not locate addiction entirely in the brain. The IDM recognizes that neurobiological vulnerabilities can lead to addiction, as opposed to just flow from it. But it situates the brain inside a human being, who has been exposed to various environmental stressors and responds differently to drug use. Simply put, the IDM places addiction on equal footing with other chronic diseases, such as lung cancer or diabetes, each of which has significant genetic, behavioral, and environmental causes. Early research demonstrates that by explaining addiction as a disease that can successfully be treated (and it is worth noting: most people with opioid use disorder who receive adequately dosed medication achieve recovery), we can reduce the stigma of addiction and get more people into treatment. Stigma leads many to avoid seeking treatment until their disease is too far gone, as they cannot bear to adopt the label of “addict.” The stigma surrounding addiction fuels, and is significantly fueled by, its criminalization. To combat our devastating opioid crisis, we need to put our collective legislative and public health efforts into explaining addiction as a disease—a disease that must be treated in the clinic, and not the courtroom.

Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed multiple public health, socio-economic, and institutional crises. Measures taken to slow the spread of the virus have fostered significant strain between authorities and citizens, leading to waves of social unrest and anti-government demonstrations. We study the temporal nature of pandemic-related disorder events as tallied by the "COVID-19 Disorder Tracker" initiative by focusing on the three countries with the largest number of incidents, India, Israel, and Mexico. By fitting Poisson and Hawkes processes to the stream of data, we find that disorder events are inter-dependent and self-excite in all three countries. Geographic clustering confirms these features at the subnational level, indicating that nationwide disorders emerge as the convergence of meso-scale patterns of self-excitation. Considerable diversity is observed among countries when computing correlations of events between subnational clusters; these are discussed in the context of specific political, societal and geographic characteristics. Israel, the most territorially compact and where large scale protests were coordinated in response to government lockdowns, displays the largest reactivity and the shortest period of influence following an event, as well as the strongest nationwide synchrony. In Mexico, where complete lockdown orders were never mandated, reactivity and nationwide synchrony are lowest. Our work highlights the need for authorities to promote local information campaigns to ensure that livelihoods and virus containment policies are not perceived as mutually exclusive.

Posidonia oceanica litter along the Mediterranean Coast of Egypt: Status and a preliminary assessment of nutrients and trace elements contents

Abstract Deposits of the endemic Mediterranean seagrass, Posidonia oceanica , are usually found covering the fronts of sandy beaches. In Egypt, these deposits are thought of as waste and subjected to removal by heavy machinery. The current study provides the first report on the status and distribution of P. oceanica deposits along the Mediterranean Coast of Egypt, in addition to an assessment of trace elements (TE), organic carbon (OC), and nutrient contents of some of their banquettes. The results indicate that TE concentrations of P. oceanica litter and associated sediments and water are acceptable according to the international limits. The results also show that organic matter constituted >10% of P. oceanica litter dry weight, while OC constituted 1.9% similar to that reported for P. oceanica living tissue. A research strategy is needed to assess carbon stocks of P. oceanica meadows and their deposits along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, in order to set strategies to mitigate climate change based on their carbon storage capacity. Local campaigns should be conducted to increase people's awareness of the importance of P. oceanica to the environment and consequently to their livelihood. • First report on the distribution of P. oceanica deposits in Egypt. • Data on the carbon stocks of P. oceanica meadows in the Mediterranean coast of Egypt is sparse. • Assessment of trace elements and nutrients content of some P. oceanica banquettes in Egypt. • Trace elements content of P. oceanica litter is acceptable according to the international limits. • Organic matter and organic carbon constituted of >10% and 1.9% of P. oceanica litter, resp.

TWO INTERPRETATIONS OF HEALTH TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMME: ELITES AGAINST THE PEOPLE? OR THE DOCTORS DEFENDING THE PUBLIC HEALTH?

This study which analyzes the political discourse that was generated around the health reform by Justice and Development Party, government and the pro-government media. The research focuses especially on the significance of health transformation programme has throughout the 2007 and 2011 parliamentary election campaigns as well as 2009 and 2014 local election campaigns. The study also analyzes how the anti- health reform discourse was generated. This research ,while looking at how the health transformation program was portrayed by the government and how a pro-reform discourse was generated around it, at the same time analyzing the how Turkish Medical Association and professional associations and unions that share the same values with TMA form an opposing discourse, scrutinize how health became a primary ground of political debate, contestation and polarization in the Turkey of early 2000s. A extensive media-scanning covering the 2002-2011 period of both pro and anti- government newspapers, 2002, 2007 and 2011 election bulletins of Justice and Development Party and the publications of TMA are used as primary sources for this study.

A conceptual model identifying apartment owners' attitude formation towards solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption

PurposeThis paper addresses the current lack of solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption by Australian apartment dwellers by proposing a conceptual model that identifies and integrates the factors influencing owners' attitudes towards PV adoption.Design/methodology/approachThe conceptual model, which this paper terms the apartment-based solar adoption (ASA) model, is developed by applying motivation–opportunity–ability (MOA) theory to relevant findings in property development, green energy and strata governance literature.FindingsThe ASA model demonstrates the process by which an apartment-owning consumer may progress from considering solar PV adoption to recommending the action to their strata property's Owners' Committee (OC). It incorporates three motivational drivers (pragmatic considerations, perceived values and perceived social norms), three conditional mediators (location accessibility, resource availability and decision-making conditions) and three requirements from the consumer (actual and perceived knowledge, the ability to participate in decision-making and social connections and status).Research limitations/implicationsThis article contributes originality to research on two counts. Firstly, it provides a conceptual framework of specific relevance to issues concerning solar PV adoption, and secondly, it offers a systematic means for research into strata governance decision-making. Further research is required to develop the means with which to utilise the model prescriptively and measure longitudinal effects, such as ongoing trends in apartment owners' motivations. Further research is also recommended into how the ASA model may be utilised to identify generalisable consumer typologies among apartment owners.Practical implicationsThe ASA model may assist building maintenance providers in developing and marketing solar PV services tailored to apartment residents' requirements and enhance strata managers' ability to inform and guide apartment owners. In turn, property developers would be able to review apartment-based solar projects, measure their increased value and decreased energy costs and incorporate this information when planning future developments.Social implicationsThe ASA model may provide a template for apartment owners and owners' corporations considering solar PV for their property. Public policymakers could also refer to the model to incentivise apartment-based solar PV adoption, whether through designing local information campaigns, developing financial incentives or mitigating identified regulatory barriers. By facilitating solar PV adoption in Australian apartment housing, the model may ensure sustainable post-carbon energy consumption for Australia's housing stock and act as an example for high-density housing development internationally.Originality/valueThe ASA model addresses the many drivers and barriers known to affect solar PV adoption by apartment owners, presenting a framework on which to arrange these factors and outline their causal relationships. This framework may inform strata properties' future solar PV adoption initiatives by incorporating their specific physical characteristics, stakeholder dynamics and institutional structure. It also consolidates and provides generalisability to the concepts established in current literature.

Local election campaign finance regimes in Canada: Toward a research agenda

AbstractThe regulation of election campaign donation, fundraising, expenditure, and advertising is an enduring object of study and reform. Compared to the federal and provincial levels, virtually no attention has been paid to Canadian municipal campaign finance regimes. This is surprising given the urban political economy literature’s focus on business influence on local politics and policy and evidence of corruption in Canadian local government. We take stock of Canadian campaign finance rules for municipal elections in light of Canadian and American research findings, which reveals considerable interprovincial variation in their sophistication and stringency. We then propose a research agenda to investigate aspects of Canadian local campaign finance regimes.

Local preferences and the allocation of attention in equity-based crowdfunding

This study examines drivers of investment probability in equity-based crowdfunding using a hand-collected and comprehensive data set from a well-established platform. The analysis confirms several effects that have been reported in the recent literature on other crowdfunding markets. Extending recent research, we study moderators of local preferences of investors. Novel to the literature, we find that (1) local preferences are more pronounced in campaigns of younger ventures, (2) herding-like behaviour is stronger in local campaigns and (3) local investors are more responsive to updates posted by entrepreneurs, compared to non-locals. Our results suggest that investors allocate more attention to campaigns for which they have information advantages, such as local campaigns, due to their limited capacity to process information. Such behaviour may eventually amplify information asymmetry and local preferences. Our findings have practical implications for entrepreneurs, investors and platforms.

Hepatitis A virus knowledge and immunization attitudes and practices in the United Arab Emirates community

Annually, 1.5 million cases of hepatitis A infection occur worldwide. The United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) has seen a decrease in infection rates and seroprevalence coupled with an increase in the average age of infection. This study aimed to assess the U.A.E. society’s hepatitis A knowledge, and attitudes and vaccination practices, with the applicability of its introduction into the local immunization schedule. A self-administered, 50-item questionnaire was used to collect data from the four most populous cities in the U.A.E., between January and March 2020. A total of 458 responses were collected and analysed using IBM-SPSS-26, R-4.0.0 and Matplotlib-v3.2.1. Females had better attitudes (P = 0.036), practices (P < 0.0005), immunization schedule knowledge (AOR = 3.019; CI 1.482–6.678), and appreciation of the immunization schedule (AOR = 2.141; CI 1.310–3.499). A higher level of perceived knowledge was associated with an actual better knowledge (P < 0.0005), better practices (P = 0.011), and increased willingness to get vaccinated (AOR = 1.988; CI 1.032–3.828). Respondents were more likely to vaccinate their children against HAV if the vaccine were introduced into the National Immunization Program (P < 0.0005). Overall, disease knowledge was lacking but with positive attitudes and poor practices. There is high trust in the National Immunization Program and a potential for improving poor practices through local awareness campaigns.

Polarisation of Content in Polish News Making, as Exemplified by News Programmes of Licensed Broadcasters and the Public Service Broadcaster

The paper contains a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the news services of the three largest broadcasters and three events essential for the functioning of the state and public life in Poland. The first one was the amendment to the Supreme Court Act of July 2017. The second event was the local elections campaign in Poland (broadcasts aired on the 18th of October 2018, the last but one day of the elections campaign), while the third set of material were the news items on the murder of the Mayor of Gdańsk – Paweł Adamowicz (broadcasts aired on the 15th of January 2019, one day after the tragic event). The analysis focused on the evening news editions by the three most popular broadcasters with the highest viewership, including commercial stations (i.e. TVN’s Fakty and Polsat’s Wydarzenia) and the public broadcaster (i.e. the Polish Television’s Wiadomości). In total, 43 news items of 2 hours, 20 minutes and 6 seconds were analysed. The study has revealed a clear polarisation of news content coming from the licensed broadcasters and the public service broadcaster.

Do Voters in Local Elections Prefer Campaign Promises About Attributable Policies?

Do Voters in Local Elections Prefer Campaign Promises About Attributable Policies?

How Local Government Vaccination Campaigns Can Increase Willingness to Get Vaccinated Against Covid-19: A Field Experiment on Psychological Ownership

With the increasing availability of life-saving vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, government agencies face the challenge of promoting vaccine uptake. Thus, encouraging vaccine uptake marks an urgent policy challenge in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. This study builds on the theory of psychological ownership to design a behaviorally-inspired local government vaccination campaign. We conducted a large-scale, cluster-randomized field experiment (N=27,298 residents nested in 6,442 addresses) delivered to all registered residents of a German municipality via an official mailing campaign. The campaign included a psychological ownership intervention designed to boost residents’ intentions to get vaccinated – measured through unique link clicks on a municipal website where people can schedule a COVID-19 vaccination appointment. Findings suggest that adding possessive pronouns (i.e., “YOUR vaccination”) increases vaccination intentions by 39 per cent, or 2.5 percentage points (p < .001 [95 per cent CI=1.8 per cent, 3.3 per cent], control letter: 6.4 per cent, treatment letter: 8.9 per cent). The discussion outlines the value of using psychological ownership-based nudges to increase vaccine uptake and other desirable behaviors more generally.

Symbolic Politics of Georgia and Azerbaijan in Russia: Two Research Cases

One of the most actively discussed topics in modern political science is symbolic politics. This topic looks especially relevant in relation to the former Soviet republics, which are actively operating within the framework of the symbolic component of politics. Based on an interdisciplinary approach to the study of symbolic politics, the article analyzes two cases related to the symbolic politics of the two republics of the post-Soviet space - Georgia and Azerbaijan, respectively. The first case refers to an attempt by the leadership of the Georgian Orthodox Church to obtain permission from the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian authorities to transfer the ashes of Georgian kings Vakhtang VI and Teymuraz II from Astrakhan to Tbilisi. The second case studies the circumstances of the construction of a monument in Dagestan near Agachaul to Turkish soldiers who died here in 1918 during the Civil war. The two cases presented in the article are interesting primarily because they allow us to see the methods of symbolic politics using concrete examples. In both cases, the actors were not state structures, but religious, social, and scientific organizations. The main method of the actors was to organize a commemorative campaign, around which an information campaign was then built, with the aim of replicating a certain interpretation of historical events. At the same time, cases differ from each other in the degree of openness and scale of actions of actors. In the first case regarding the transfer of the ashes of Georgian tsars, the Georgian side directly addressed both the leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church and the leadership of Russia. At the same time, the actions undertaken by the Georgian side were not successful. In the second case, the Azerbaijani side actively used the local commemorative campaign, initiated by local communities in Dagestan, to launch an appropriate wide information campaign. A comparison of cases leads to the conclusion that the success of a symbolic policy does not depend on the scale of the actions taken.

Decentralization of Political Design in China

Political posters, banners, and similar objects are extremely common in China. This article uses political design from contemporary China, particularly emphasizing the government's Chinese Dream campaign, to analyze what at first appears to be a paradox. The subjects of the various campaigns and the language they use are mandated by the central government and promoted through central and local publicity departments. However, the graphic aspects of these campaigns, such as the choice of colours, images, layout, and typeface, are much less strictly controlled, and are decided by local governments or authorities. This makes political design in China decentralized. Decentralized design is inconsistent with the principles of global marketing and with the PRC's reliance on set forms of political discourse, both of which rely on the assumption that uniformity will lead to more effective communication of messages and persuasion of the public. Evidence from local design campaigns indeed shows that Chinese political posters are often designed hastily and without expertise, resulting in strange and unpersuasive images. Despite this, the article shows that decentralized design is not paradoxical. This is largely because the Chinese party-state uses propaganda as a method of "signalling" its overall power, more than as a tool of indoctrination or persuasion about particular topics. The central government's reliance on incentives and metrics to regulate local authorities means that the production of propaganda is also a way in which local governments can signal their loyalty to the Centre.

Projekty edukacyjne na rzecz integracji społecznej oraz kształtowania postaw tolerancji i zrozumienia

In response to the „refugee crisis” of 2015 – resulting in the arrival in Europe of many thousands of people fleeing the armed conflict in Syria – the Polish Law and Justice party and the Polish government adopted negative attitudes towards refugees. The Polish mass media promoted anti-refugee narratives focused on terrorism and „threats of Islamisation” of Europe. However, these anti-refugee narratives have been countered by local antihate campaigns, including activities undertaken by local ethnologists and anthropologists. This article offers an analysis of educational activities undertaken in 2017 by the Centre for Migration Studies at Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan, Poland. These activities took a form of two initiatives: „Adopt a vest” and „Let’s talk about refugees”. Both projects aimed at shaping attitudes of openness towards refugees and increasing awareness of refugees among the residents of Poznan, including school children. Additionally, these activities aimed to increase and support the people willing to disseminate knowledge about refugees and impart openness and respect for forced migrants. Such activism is guided by the idea that it is essential not only to get to know the world better, but also to imagine it differently and create an alternative vision of the world where solidarity with refugees and migrants prevails (cf. Fischman, McLaren 2005).

Local racial context, campaign messaging, and public political behavior: A congressional campaign field experiment

Local racial contexts influence public opinion and voting behaviors. This paper argues that differences in community racial demographics also change public political behavior and influence the effectiveness of different campaign appeals to change public political behaviors of white Americans. Using data from an experiment run by a congressional primary campaign, I examine the responses of white Republicans to display a yard sign of a white Republican running against a Latino Republican. Consistent with theories of racial threat, whites in Latino neighborhoods were more likely to be willing to post yard signs. Moreover, the results also show that the effectiveness of different campaign appeals varies by neighborhood racial context. These findings show that racial diversity affects the public political behaviors of white Americans and, more importantly, changes the effectiveness of different campaign appeals.

Uprooting Identity: European Integration, Political Realignment and the Wine of the Languedoc, 1984–2014

Uprooting productive vines transformed the landscape of the wine growing Languedoc as part of a coordinated European effort to reduce agricultural overproduction, most notably after 1984. The demographic shifts caused by this transformation upset regional political alliances, coinciding with a socialist presidency and electoral gains for the far-right Front National (FN). More traditional syndical bodies lost their ability to accent national change, floundering in the face of supra-national reform. This left space for political parties to politicise this gap between agency and power, and the FN retooled regional rhetoric emerging from wine protests on the left in service of local campaigns. Contextualising the election of Robert Ménard in Béziers in 2014, this article looks at how sectoral and economic transformation was passed over in favour of populist language borrowed from the vineyards only decades earlier, in which the uprooting of vines explains the perceived uprooting of identity.

Air pollution exposure management at the city level - the ICARUS approach

Technology innovations create possibilities to capture exposure-related data at a great depth and breadth. Considering, though, the substantial hurdles involved in collecting individual data, this study introduces a first-of-a-kind approach to simulating human movement and interaction behaviour for assessing personalised exposure to air toxicants, using Agent Based Modelling (ABM). A city scale ABM was developed for the metropolitan area of Thessaloniki, Greece in order to feeds into population-based exposure assessment without imposing prior bias, basing its estimations onto emerging properties of the behaviour of the computerised autonomous decision makers (agents) that compose the city system. Population statistics, road and buildings networks data were transformed into human, road and building agents, respectively. Survey outputs with time-use patterns were associated with human agent rules, aiming to model representative to real-world behaviours. Time-geography of exposure data, derived from a local sensors campaign, was used to inform and enhance the model. As a prevalence of an agent-specific decision-making, virtual individuals of different sociodemographic backgrounds express different spatiotemporal behaviours and their trajectories are coupled with spatially resolved pollution levels. Personal exposure was evaluated by assigning PM concentrations to human agents based on coordinates, type of location and intensity of encountered activities. Study results indicated that PM2.5 inhalation adjusted exposure between housemates can differ by 56.5% whereas exposure between two neighbours can vary by as much as 87%, due to the prevalence of different behaviours. This study provides details of a new methodology that permits the cost-effective construction of refined time-activity diaries and daily exposure profiles, accounting for different microenvironments and sociodemographic characteristics. The proposed method leads to a refined exposure assessment model, addressing effectively vulnerable subgroups of population. It can be used for evaluating the impacts of different public health policies prior to implementation reducing, therefore, the time and expense required to identify efficient measures.

Evaluating a Longitudinal Cohort of Clinics Engaging in the Family Planning Elevated Contraceptive Access Program: Study Protocol for a Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BackgroundAccess to high-quality, comprehensive contraceptive care is an inherent component of reproductive human rights. However, hindrances to specific aspects of contraceptive provision, including availability, accessibility, acceptability, and quality, continue to perpetuate unmet needs. The state of Utah has recently passed a series of contraceptive policies intended to improve contraceptive access. Despite these positive changes to theoretical access, fiscal appropriations to support the implementation of these policies have been minimal, and many individuals still struggle to access contraception.ObjectiveThe Family Planning Elevated Contraceptive Access Program (FPE CAP), part of a larger statewide contraceptive initiative, specifically aims to improve contraceptive access within health clinics. This paper describes the study protocol for evaluating the success of FPE CAP.MethodsHealth clinics apply for membership in the FPE CAP. On acceptance in the program, they receive a cash grant for clinical supplies, equipment, and personnel expenses; reimbursement for contraceptive services and methods for eligible clients; technical support, training, and proctoring on counseling and providing all methods of contraception; method stocking of intrauterine devices and implants; and demand generation activities, including local media campaigns, to inform community members about the FPE CAP and possible eligibility. FPE collects monthly service delivery reports from participating clinics for evaluation purposes. The primary outcomes of FPE CAP are level and trend changes in contraceptive service delivery among individuals earning ≤138% federal poverty level (FPL) following membership in FPE CAP and among FPE CAP clients earning between 139% and 250% FPL (including those ineligible for Medicaid) compared with historical data and control clinics. To assess this, we will conduct comparative interrupted time series analyses assessing the level and trend changes in intervention and control clinics 12 months before the intervention, for the 2-year duration of the intervention, and for the subsequent 12 months following the intervention.ResultsWe found that the study is adequately powered (>80% power) with our planned number of clinics and the number of months of data available in the study. To date, we have successfully completed the recruitment and enrollment of 8 of the expected 9 health organizations and 4 of the control clinics. Completed health organization enrollment for both intervention and control organizations is expected to be completed in December 2020.ConclusionsThe study aims to provide insight into a new approach to contraceptive initiatives by addressing comprehensive aspects of contraceptive care at the health system level. Ongoing state policy changes and implementation components may affect the evaluation outcomes.International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/18308

Assessing personal exposure using Agent Based Modelling informed by sensors technology

Technology innovations create possibilities to capture exposure-related data at a great depth and breadth. Considering, though, the substantial hurdles involved in collecting individual data for whole populations, this study introduces a first approach of simulating human movement and interaction behaviour, using Agent Based Modelling (ABM).A city scale ABM was developed for urban Thessaloniki, Greece that feeds into population-based exposure assessment without imposing prior bias, basing its estimations onto emerging properties of the behaviour of the computerised autonomous decision makers (agents) that compose the city-system. Population statistics, road and buildings networks data were transformed into human, road and building agents, respectively. Survey outputs with time-use patterns were associated with human agent rules, aiming to model representative to real-world behaviours. Moreover, time-geography of exposure data, derived from a local sensors campaign, was used to inform and enhance the model. As a prevalence of an agent-specific decision-making, virtual individuals of different sociodemographic backgrounds express different spatiotemporal behaviours and their trajectories are coupled with spatially resolved pollution levels.Personal exposure was evaluated by assigning PM concentrations to human agents based on coordinates, type of location and intensity of encountered activities. Study results indicated that PM2.5 inhalation adjusted exposure between housemates can differ by 56.5% whereas exposure between two neighbours can vary by as much as 87%, due to the prevalence of different behaviours.This study provides details of a new methodology that permits the cost-effective construction of refined time-activity diaries and daily exposure profiles, taking into account different microenvironments and sociodemographic characteristics. The proposed method leads to a refined exposure assessment model, addressing effectively vulnerable subgroups of population. It can be used for evaluating the probable impacts of different public health policies prior to implementation reducing, therefore, the time and expense required to identify efficient measures.