Local Authority Districts In England Research Articles

Spatial patterns of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 mortality across waves of infection in England, Wales, and Scotland

Recent studies have established the key individual-level risk factors of COVID-19 mortality such as age, gender, ethnicity, and socio-economic status. However, the spread of infectious diseases is a spatial and temporal process implying that COVID-19 mortality and its determinants may vary sub-nationally and over time. We investigate the spatial patterns of age-standardised death rates due to COVID-19 and their correlates across local authority districts in England, Wales, and Scotland across three waves of infection. Using a Spatial Durbin model, we explore within- and between-country variation and account for spatial dependency. Areas with a higher share of ethnic minorities and higher levels of deprivation had higher rates of COVID-19 mortality. However, the share of ethnic minorities and population density in an area were more important predictors of COVID-19 mortality in earlier waves of the pandemic than in later waves, whereas area-level deprivation has become a more important predictor over time. Second, during the first wave of the pandemic, population density had a significant spillover effect on COVID-19 mortality, indicating that the pandemic spread from big cities to neighbouring areas. Third, after accounting for differences in ethnic composition, deprivation, and population density, initial cross-country differences in COVID-19 mortality almost disappeared. COVID-19 mortality remained higher in Scotland than in England and Wales in the third wave when COVID-19 mortality was relatively low in all three countries. Interpreting these results in the context of higher overall (long-term) non-COVID-19 mortality in Scotland suggests that Scotland may have performed better than expected during the first two waves. Our study highlights that accounting for both spatial and temporal factors is essential for understanding social and demographic risk factors of mortality during pandemics.

Micromotives and macromoves: political preferences and internal migration in England and Wales

Abstract When people migrate internally, do they tend to move to locations that reflect their political preferences? To address this question, we combine evidence from a unique panel dataset on population movements across local authority districts in England and Wales (2002–2015) with evidence stemming from individual survey-based data. Our results suggest that political similarity between two districts exerts an important positive effect on their bilateral migration flows. Our results also indicate that political alignment to the district of residence contributes to individuals’ sense of belonging and ‘fitting in’, consistent with the existence of a homophily mechanism.

Socio-spatial factors associated with ethnic inequalities in districts of England and Wales, 2001–2011

This paper explores the changing geography of ethnic inequality in England and Wales drawing on data from the 2001 and 2011 censuses. Specifically, we use the 2011 Office for National Statistics (ONS) area classification to examine how ethnic inequalities within local areas with different demographic and socio-economic characteristics have changed over time. Local ethnic inequalities are examined through a set of indicators which capture differences in housing, health, employment and education between ethnic minority groups and the White British in local authority districts in England and Wales. The results suggest that ethnic inequalities are widespread and persistent, and highlight the different ways in which inequalities manifest for particular ethnic groups in different localities. Ethnic inequality in housing and employment is severe for most ethnic minority groups, particularly in large urban areas that have been traditional settlement areas for ethnic minorities. However, inequalities increased most over the decade 2001–2011 in rural and coastal areas that have low ethnic diversity levels and small ethnic minority populations. The paper considers these findings in relation to theories of service provision and racism, ethnic density, and immigrant adaptation.

How far do internal migrants really move? Demonstrating a new method for the estimation of intra-zonal distance

This paper makes use of data on origin to destination migration by postcode derived from a large biannual consumer survey, Acxiom’s Research Opinion Poll, to measure distances of migration within England in the mid-2000s. These data provide an opportunity to evaluate conventional methods of centroid-based estimation of inter-zonal distance and area-based estimation of intra-zonal distance, and demonstrate how the latter in particular generates problematic estimates. A new regression-based approach for generating intra-zonal distance is presented, resulting in significantly improved goodness-of-fit statistics when used in doubly constrained spatial interaction modelling of migration flows for local authority districts in England from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses.

Semiparametric M-quantile regression for count data.

Lung cancer incidence over 2005-2010 for 326 Local Authority Districts in England is investigated by ecological regression. Motivated from mis-specification of a Negative Binomial additive model, a semiparametric Negative Binomial M-quantile regression model is introduced. The additive part relates to those univariate or bivariate smoothing components, which are included in the model to capture nonlinearities in the predictor or to account for spatial dependence. All such components are estimated using penalized splines. The results show the capability of the semiparametric Negative Binomial M-quantile regression model to handle data with a strong spatial structure.

Spatial lag models with nested random effects: An instrumental variable procedure with an application to English house prices

This paper sets up a nested random effects spatial autoregressive panel data model to explain annual house price variation for 2000–2007 across 353 local authority districts in England. The estimation problem posed is how to allow for the endogeneity of the spatial lag variable producing the simultaneous spatial spillover of prices across districts together with the nested random effects in a panel data setting. To achieve this, the paper proposes new estimators based on the instrumental variable approaches of Kelejian and Prucha (1998) and Lee (2003) for the cross-sectional spatial autoregressive model. Monte Carlo results show that our estimators perform well relative to alternative approaches and produces estimates based on real data that are consistent with the theoretical house price model underpinning the reduced form.

Maintaining Existing Zoning Systems Using Automated Zone-Design Techniques: Methods for Creating the 2011 Census Output Geographies for England and Wales

Automated zone-design methods are increasingly being used to create zoning systems for a range of purposes, such as the release of census statistics or the investigation of neighbourhood effects on health. Inevitably, the characteristics originally underpinning the design of a zoning system (eg, population size or homogeneity of the built environment) change through time. Rather than designing a completely new system every time substantive change occurs, or retaining an existing system which will become increasingly unfit for purpose, an alternative is to modify the existing system such that zones which still meet the design criteria are retained, but those which are no longer fit for purpose are split or merged. This paper defines the first generic methodology for the automated maintenance of existing zoning systems. Using bespoke, publicly available, software (AZTool), the methodology is employed to modify the 2001 Census output geographies within six local authority districts in England and Wales in order to make them suitable for the release of contemporary population-related data. Automated maintenance of an existing system is found to be a more iterative and constrained problem than designing a completely new system; design constraints frequently have to be relaxed and manual intervention is occasionally required. Nonetheless, existing zone-design techniques can be successfully adapted and implemented to automatically maintain an existing system. The findings of this paper are of direct relevance both to the Office for National Statistics in their design of the 2011 Census output geographies for England and Wales and to any other countries or organisations seeking to maintain an existing zoning system.

District House Price Movements in England and Wales 1997–2007: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Approach

Using exploratory spatial data analysis and house price data from local authority districts in England and Wales, this article considers whether a regional ripple effect can be tracked at the district level. Although spatial house price variation has been explored at a sub-regional level, this is possibly the first paper to attempt to track house price spillover between districts on a national basis. High- and low-growth clusters of areas are traced. It is concluded that spatial spillover of house price growth is unlikely to be based on interlocked markets bonded by commuting or migration alone; information flows and expectations are likely to reinforce interdistrict transmission. Specifically, house price spillover north of the East Midlands appears much more rapid than would be consistent with a ‘ripple’, suggesting that there is some support for undertaking British housing market analysis on a spatially segmented basis, even at a regional level.

‘Why can’t we dig like they do on Time Team?’ The meaning of the past within working class communities

This paper describes the community excavation organised by Great Yarmouth Museums in Norfolk, England in 2001. It resulted from a period of consultation with a wide range of community representatives within the Borough during the development of the Borough’s Heritage Strategy. In 2000, the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions published a review of the Indices of Deprivation, Great Yarmouth ranked fifth-worst in ward level intensity out of 354 local authority districts in England, and the excavation took place in the heart of the most deprived area of the town. Consultation showed that those who lived in this area had a strong interest in the past beyond memory and were keen to find out more about it. Above all, they wanted to take part in an excavation and put the objects they found in a new museum. The paper explores common preconceptions of working class attitudes to archaeology and heritage and considers how far these were borne out by work with deprived communities in Great Yarmouth.

Evaluating the role of environmental quality in the sustainable rural economic development of England

The issue of the sustainable development of rural economies in England has recently received considerable attention. This is because many of the poorest areas in the country are rural, often of high environmental quality, but suffering from high unemployment and a lack of services and facilities. The rapid decline in agricultural incomes and in-migration of affluent urban workers since 1990 has exacerbated economic inequality in such areas. A number of factors have the potential to drive rural development and this paper applies, and considers, the feasibility of a method from the USA for combining economic and environmental variables in a regional growth model to examine the hypothesis that environmental quality is an important determinant of sustainable rural development in England. The model output suggests that, although environmental quality does play a role in sustainable rural development in England there are other, more important, factors driving development. These include business and communications infra-structure, the degree and opportunities for commuting and underlying employment prospects. The robustness and limitations of the method for combining economic and environmental variables is discussed in relation to the spatial interrelatedness of Local Authority Districts in England, and conclusions are drawn about areas for refinement and improvement of the method.

Geographical distribution of road traffic deaths in England and Wales: place of accident compared with place of residence

There are two sources of information on road traffic mortality in England and Wales: ONS records giving the place of residence and police records giving the place of the accident. Use of the police records has been limited by the lack of an obvious denominator to control for population at risk. This study compares the two measures and explores the implications of using the same population denominator for both. The number of road traffic deaths occurring in 403 local authority districts in England and Wales during 1995-1999 was compared to the number of deaths to residents in the same period. Both numbers were related to the expected number of deaths to residents and selected environmental risk factors using regression techniques. Large differences were found between the number of deaths in each district and the number of deaths to residents. The expected number of deaths to residents was the strongest predictor of both observed totals. The number of deaths in the district and the number divided by expected deaths of residents were highly predictable from road accident risk factors, but the number of deaths to residents and the conventional SMR were not. Information on the place of residence of road traffic accident fatalities does not show true variations in accident risk. Police records are better for this purpose. The expected number of deaths to residents estimate provides a partial but effective and unbiased control for population effects.

Developing Indicators to Inform Local Economic Development in England

Based on a conceptual framework of 11 factors that are widely perceived to be the major determinants of local economic development (LED), 29 indicators were identified to measure these factors. Principal component analysis was first used to examine the structure of relationships among the compiled LED indicators for local authority districts in England and to explore the spatial patterns that emerge from the analysis. A series of multiple regression models were then calibrated to investigate the relative strengths of relationship between the LED indicators and various performance variables. The final section concludes with the key issues revealed by the findings of these multivariate analyses.

A multilevel model of sudden infant death syndrome in England and Wales.

The relationship between migration and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) in England and Wales is analyzed using official data for the period 1979-1983. "In this paper, multilevel modelling is used to examine the variability in SIDS deaths at different geographical scales, namely district, county, and regional levels. Given the population-mixing hypothesis, it is possible that high levels of population mixing in one district will have an effect on the spread of infections in an adjacent district, and the rates for individual districts will not be spatially independent of each other. Factors such as climate varying at regional scale may also be important. A log-linear multilevel model is developed to examine these issues, and the discussion focuses on the methodological issues raised by the analysis such as appropriate multilevel structure, methods of estimation, dispersion of residuals, and significance of parameter estimates."

Health service accessibility and deaths from asthma in 401 local authority districts in England and Wales, 1988-92.

BACKGROUND: The possible contribution of health service accessibility to asthma mortality has not previously been studied in the UK. METHODS: Using regression analysis, the relationship between geographical isolation from large...

Limiting long-term illness and its associations with mortality and indicators of social deprivation.

To examine geographical variation in limiting long-term illness in England and Wales and assesses the extent of its similarity with the distribution of mortality rates and of deprivation. A geographically based study using data from the 1991 census on limiting long term illness. Maps and regression analysis are used to compare the distribution of standardised illness ratios with standardised mortality ratios and indicators of social deprivation. A total of 401 local authority districts in England and Wales. The population of England and Wales enumerated in the 1991 census. The geographical pattern of limiting long term illness shows many similarities with that of mortality but there are also some differences. Both are positively associated with indicators of social deprivation, with limiting long term illness tending to show stronger correlations, particularly in the elderly. Most of Wales and many industrial areas of northern England have higher rates of long term illness than would be expected from their mortality rates, while much of south eastern England has lower than expected rates. Moves towards using data on limiting long term illness instead of standardised mortality rates would have important implications for NHS resource allocations. Further assessment of the reliability of these data on self reported morbidity is required. in particular, there is a need to assess how much they reflect real differences in ill health rather than the influence of socioeconomic or cultural factors affecting the likelihood of a positive answer to the census question on limiting long term illness.

Increasing incidence of tuberculosis in England and Wales: a study of the likely causes

To examine factors responsible for the recent increase in tuberculosis in England and Wales. Study of the incidence of tuberculosis (a) in the 403 local authority districts in England and Wales, ranked according to Jarman score, and (b) in one deprived inner city district, according to ethnic origin and other factors. (a) England and Wales 1980-92, and (b) the London borough of Hackney 1986-93. Age and sex adjusted rate of tuberculosis. In England and Wales notifications of tuberculosis increased by 12% between 1988 and 1992. The increase was 35% in the poorest 10th of the population and 13% in the next two; and in the remaining 70% there was no increase. In Hackney the increase affected traditionally high risk and low risk ethnic groups to a similar extent. In the "low risk" white and West Indian communities the incidence increased by 58% from 1986-8 (78 cases) to 1991-3 (123), whereas in residents of Indian subcontinent origin the increase was 41% (from 51 cases to 72). Tuberculosis in recently arrived immigrants--refugees (11% of the Hackney population) and Africans (6%)--accounted for less than half of the overall increase, and the proportion of such residents was much higher than in most socioeconomically deprived districts. The local increase was not due to an increase in the proportion of cases notified, to HIV infection, nor to an increase in homeless people. The national rise in tuberculosis affects only the poorest areas. Within one such area all residents (white and established ethnic minorities) were affected to a similar extent. The evidence indicates a major role for socioeconomic factors in the increase in tuberculosis and only a minor role for recent immigration from endemic areas.

Population mixing and sudden infant death syndrome in England and Wales.

Infections may be involved in some cases of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). Exposure to such infections is likely to differ considerably between areas depending on rates of population mixing. It is therefore possible that the geography of SIDS will reflect that of population migration. For 403 local authority districts in England and Wales the number of SIDS deaths in the first year of life and the number of livebirths during the period 1979-1983 were abstracted from published sources. Districts were classified by levels of in-migration using data from the 1981 Census and observed and expected numbers of SIDS deaths were compared for areas experiencing different rates of in-migration. A significant association (P < 0.001) was found between SIDS deaths and rates of long distance migration into districts. In the group with the highest rate of long distance in-migration the ratio of observed to expected SIDS deaths was 62% greater than in the group with the lowest rate of in-migration. This association was strengthened after adjustment for social class and illegitimacy. A weaker, but statistically significant, association was found for shorter distance in-migration. It is concluded that geographical variations in SIDS deaths in England and Wales are strongly associated with differences in rates of population mixing as measured by migration. The findings support the hypothesis that population mixing, by its influence on exposure to infections, may be a significant factor in the aetiology of SIDS.

Hospital admission rates and the prevalence of asthma symptoms in 20 local authority districts.

Representative samples of 20-44 year old men living in 20 local authority districts in England were surveyed in 1986 by postal questionnaire and asked about symptoms associated with asthma and treatment for asthma. Regional health authorities provided information on all hospital discharges of men of the same age living in the same districts. Specific information was also provided on discharges where the primary cause of admission was for asthma. Admission rates for asthma were related to the prevalence of night time breathlessness and independently to the all cause admission rate for men of the same age. Admission rates were not significantly related to prescription rates of either corticosteroids or beta 2 agonists for symptomatic men. This lack of association is hard to interpret without further information on variation in the severity of disease. These data show that admission rates for asthma are not dictated solely by health service characteristics, such as availability of beds or the "style" of the physician, but also reflect need. More research is required on how best to reduce the local prevalence and severity of asthma.