Load/Unload Response Ratio Method Research Articles

The evolution characteristics of rock fracture instability under cyclic loading on the basis of the enhanced LURR

Prospective discrimination of rock instability and fracture is a key problem in mining, slope stability, earthquake triggering, and other research fields. Through the rock fracture experiment, scientists put forward the load unload response ratio (referred to as LURR) to detect the non-linear deformation process of the strain stress curve, judge the degree of rock damage and instability fracture, which is accepted worldwide and has been widely used in seismic risk assessment. But, the extraction of response parameters (including strain, energy, well water level, etc.) are faced with many difficulties in actual observation, which makes the application of results uncertain. In this paper, the change of relative wave velocity is proposed as the loading unloading response parameter. Through rock mechanics experiments, a prospective discrimination method of rock instability and fracture process is constructed. The change characteristics of the LURR in the process of rock instability and fracture under stress are studied, the experiment result show that: when approaching the main fracture, the LURR calculated by taking the transverse strain energy as the response quantity obviously rises and fall back, the acoustic emission energy release rate and event rate are close to exponential acceleration process; The LURR by taking the change of relative wave velocity as the response parameter, first decreases, then fluctuates near zero, and rapidly decreases to below zero when it reaches the critical failure. The change combination of the above parameters’ response ratio can effectively judge the process of rock deformation, instability and fracture under stress. Moreover, this study of the load unload response ratio which takes the change of relative wave velocity as the response parameter, makes up the deficiency of the traditional load unload response ratio method in judging the rock instability of the medium under stress.

Evolution Characteristics and Mechanism of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Based on Strain Observation Before the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 Earthquake

Strain observation is the most intuitive observation equipment to monitor stress change in the crust. Strain equipment near the epicenter area of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake (JZGEQ) provides a lot of reliable pre-seismic and post-seismic data for the study of stress change. In this study, the load/unload response ratio (LURR) method is used to study the stress state of rocks by calculating the ratio of strain observation during the loading phase and unloading phase. Results show that the LURR method based on strain observation is an effective method to describe the dynamic change of the constitutive relationship of the rocks in the crust. Different from the strain observation, the LURR anomaly evolution process is more continuous regardless of the time series curve or spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. The LURR curves of different stations begin to increase above 1.0 gradually from 6 months to 1 year prior to the occurrence of the JZGEQ, reaching the maximum value in 1–3 months before the JZGEQ, and subsequently return to a low level. The maximum value of the LURR anomalies decreases with the distance from the epicenters. At the same time, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the LURR anomalies show us the process of “extension—enhance—weaken” in the epicenter of JZGEQ and its peripheral area prior to the earthquake. The concentration areas of the aforementioned LURR anomalies are all distributed in the pre-seismic normal stress-loading zone, which indicates that the faults are in the process of decoupling, and microfracture may exist in the stage of rock dilatancy.

Approaches to assessing the effectiveness of earthquake predictions using the LURR (load-unload response ratio) method on Sakhalin

A retrospective analysis of the seismicity of Sakhalin from 1997 to 2019 was performed to demonstrate the possibilities of the LURR technique recently in previous our work. The following results were obtained: 84 % of earthquakes (16 out of 19, with M ≥ 5) are predicted, 25% alarms (4 out of 15 predicted areas) were false. This paper proposes an analytical dependence to describe the forecast effectiveness (Ke) for this research. The extremes of Ke were found at the value of the alarm period of 12 and 24 months. At the same time, Ke is significantly higher for the alarm period of 24 months and decreases after a two-year alarm period. Another way to prove the results obtained is the random spatio-temporal distributions of the predicted objects (19 earthquakes with M ≥ 5). 10 such random sets have been assigned to 15 predicted areas, the result shows a significant advantage of a real sample over random ones, and also practically confirms the reliability of the algorithm for using the LURR technique. The methodology and results of this work can serve as practical recommendations for working with the LURR method for seismologists.

Seismic regime of south Sakhalin before the Krillon earthquake 23.04.2017 (LURR and SDP models)

In the present work we show a fundamental possibility of a short-term prediction of strong shallow-focus earthquakes in the Southern Sakhalin (on the Krillon earthquake example, 23.04.2017, Mw=5.0). Retrospective modeling of earthquakes sequences from 2013 to 2017 based on the method of self-developing process (SDP) and the catalogue data of the local network has required. An auxiliary tool was used to improve the accuracy of the SDP estimates. It is a medium-term earthquake prediction method called LURR (load-unload response ratio). The previous results were improved using different sample data in the zones of active fault structures. This avoids ambiguity in the choice of the computational domain for SDP calculations. The zone of maximal anomalous levels of LURR coincides with that one we obtained a solution by the method of SDP. It happened 77 days before the earthquake. When compared with average estimates by the LURR method (two years), the prediction time was concluded to go down by 11 times.

A Dimensional Analysis Method for Improved Load–Unload Response Ratio

The load–unload response ratio (LURR) method is proposed to measure the damage extent of source media and the criticality of earthquake. Before the occurrence of a large earthquake, anomalous increase in the time series of LURR within the certain temporal and spatial windows has often been observed. In this paper, a dimensional analysis technique is devised to evaluate quantitatively the magnitude and time of the ensuing large earthquake within the anomalous areas derived from the LURR method. Based on the π-theorem, two dimensionless quantities associated with the earthquake time and magnitude are derived from five parameters (i.e. the seismic energy (E S), the average seismic energy (E W), the maximum value of LURR’s seismogenic integral (I PP), the thickness of seismogenic zone (h), the time interval from I PP to earthquake (T 2), and the shear strain rate ( $$\dot{\gamma }$$ )). The statistical relationships between the earthquakes and the two dimensionless quantities are derived by testing the seismic data of the 50 events of M4.5 ~ 8.1 occurred in China since 1976. In earthquake prediction, the LURR method is used to detect the areas with anomalous high LURR values, and then our dimensional analysis technique is applied to assess the optimal critical region, magnitude, and time of the ensuing event, when its seismogenic integral is peaked (I PP). As study examples, we applied this approach to study four large events, namely the 2012 M S5.3 Hami, 2015 M S5.8 Alashan, 2015 M S8.1 Nepal earthquakes, and the 2013 Songyuan earthquake swam. Results show that the predicted location, time, and magnitude correlate well with the actual events. This provides evidence that the dimensional analysis technique may be a useful tool to augment current predictive power of the traditional LURR approach.

Study of the Potential Earthquake Risk in the Western United States by the LURR Method Based on the Seismic Catalogue, Fault Geometry and Focal Mechanisms

Based on the load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR under 90 % confidence) in the western United States and its adjacent area (31°–44°N, −128° to −112°E) during the period from 1980 to 2011 was studied. The selected study area was zoned into 20 sub-regions, in each of which the fault geometry and the focal mechanisms were very similar such that the stress fields were almost uniform. The loading and unloading periods were determined by calculating perturbations in the Coulomb failure stress in each sub-regions induced by earth tides. Earthquakes occurring in these sub-regions were identified as a loading or unloading type, and the response rate was chosen as the Benioff strain that can be calculated from earthquake magnitude M. With a time window of 1 year, a time moving step of 1 month, a space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km, and a space moving step of 0.5° latitudinally and longitudinally, snapshots of the evolution of Y/Y c were generated. Scanning results show that obvious Y/Y c anomalies can be detected near the epicenter of all big earthquakes larger than M6.5 in regions with reasonable seismic monitoring abilities. They also show Y/Y c anomalies occurred several years prior to the big earthquakes and the lasting time of the anomaly is from one year to several years. For some LURR anomalous regions, however, no earthquakes occurred. According to the characteristics of LURR anomalies, two regions with a high risk of big earthquakes were detected. One is between the northern region of the Bay Area and the Mendocino triple junction (38°–40°N, −124° to −122°E) and the other is between Lake Tahoe and Mono Lake (37.5°–39.5°N, −120° to −118°E) along the border of California and Nevada.

Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

AbstractThe physics‐based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A probabilistic approach for earthquake potential evaluation based on the load/unload response ratio method

AbstractPrevious studies indicate that the occurrence of a large earthquake might be predicted by anomalous temporal increase of the load/unload response ratio (LURR), which was often defined as the ratio of Benioff strain of small earthquakes released during loading and unloading time periods, corresponding to earth tide‐induced Coulomb failure stress change on optimally oriented faults. The conventional LURR anomalous evaluation usually sets a critical LURR value, above which an earthquake may occur. In this paper a probabilistic approach for the evaluation of earthquake potential based on the LURR method is developed. In the approach, the occurrence probability of a future earthquake is quantitatively evaluated by assessing the confidence level of LURR anomaly associated with its stochastic distribution. As retrospective studies, we apply the approach to investigate the time series of LURR prior to the 50M>6.3 earthquakes that occurred in the Chinese mainland and the 21M>6.0 earthquakes in southern California over the past 30 years, and find high correlation between the confidence level of the LURR anomalies and the occurrence of the large earthquakes. We then depict all the high peaks that appeared in the LURR time series, and evaluate the earthquake occurrence rate as a function of the confidence level. The research results show considerable promise that our probabilistic approach may provide a useful tool to evaluate quantitatively the occurrence possibilities of future earthquakes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison Between LURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3°×3°, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

Earthquake Trend Around Sumatra Indicated by a New Implementation of LURR Method

The current implementation of LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) theory has shown promise in intermediate to short-term earthquake forecasting through past practice, but has also met difficulties at the same time. In this paper a new implementation of LURR method is presented to address one of the problems. The major change in the new implementation is that LURR values will result from a calculated maximum faulting orientation (MFO) instead of any focal mechanism selected by users. After comparison with the world stress map, the calculated MFO has been found to be in good agreement with the observation from the regional tectonic stress regime. The MFO pattern in the Indonesia region has a special feature which may be related to the unique subduction complexity. The MFO pattern in the Sumatra region in general is different from that in the Java region after the 2004 M 9.0 Sumatra Andaman Islands earthquake. This phenomenon may be supported by the evidence of the recent observation that a section in the southern part of the Sumatran arc is locked. Furthermore, the MFO pattern before the 2004 main shock is different from that after the event. Retrospective examination of the Indonesia region by means of this implementation can produce significant LURR anomaly not only prior to the 2004 main shock but also before the 2006 M 7.7 South Java earthquake. Therefore future great earthquakes might favorably be forecasted if the LURR anomaly detected by MFO method could be considered a precursor.

An Independent Assessment of the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Proposed Method of Earthquake Prediction

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is a proposed technique to predict earthquakes that was first put forward by Yin (1987). LURR is based on the idea that when an area enters the damage regime, the rate of seismic activity during loading of the tidal cycle increases relative to the rate of seismic activity during unloading in the months to one year preceding a large earthquake. Since earth tides generally contribute the largest temporal variations in crustal stress, it seems plausible that earth tides would trigger earthquakes in areas that are close to failure (e.g., Vidale et al., 1998). However, the vast majority of studies have shown that earth tides do not trigger earthquakes (e.g., Vidale et al., 1998; Heaton, 1982; Rydelek et al., 1992). In this study, we conduct an independent test of the LURR method, since there would be important scientific and social implications if it were proven to be a robust method of earthquake prediction. Smith and Sammis (2004) undertook a similar study and found no evidence that there was predictive significance to the LURR method. We have repeated calculations of LURR for the Northridge earthquake in California, following both the parameters of X.C. Yin (personal communication) and the somewhat different ones of Smith and Sammis (2004). Though we have followed both sets of parameters closely, we have been unable to reproduce either set of results. Our examinations have shown that the LURR method is very sensitive to certain parameters. Thus it seems likely that the discrepancies between our results and those of previous studies are due to unaccounted for differences in the calculation parameters. A general agreement was made at the 2004 ACES Workshop in China between research groups studying LURR to work cooperatively to resolve the differences in methods and results, and thus permit more definitive conclusions on the potential usefulness of the LURR method in earthquake prediction.

A Statistical Investigation of the Earthquake Predictions Using LURR

In terms of the spatial scanning of LURR (Load-Unload Response Ratio), we have been predicting the seismic tendency within the next year for the mainland of China from 1995 to 2003. In order to make the quantitative retrospective assessment of LURR method, we compare the results with Poisson null hypothesis. The results show that the prediction by LURR method is much better than Poisson hypothesis.

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.