Liver-related Events In Patients Research Articles

Combined effect of histological findings and diabetes mellitus on liver-related events in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

Advanced fibrosis has a strong influence on the occurrence of liver-related events in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), while diabetes mellitus (DM), which is often complicated by MASLD, is associated with the progression of MASLD. We stratified patients with MASLD according to the severity of liver pathological findings and the presence of DM, aiming to examine whether these indices could be used to accurately assess the risk of developing liver-related events. A total of 282 patients with liver biopsy-proven MASLD were included. Liver-related events were defined as the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and complications of liver cirrhosis, such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, Child-Pugh class B and C, as well as treatment-eligible esophageal and gastric varices. Multivariate analysis adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine, hemoglobin A1c, smoking habits, dyslipidemia, hypertension, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS), or fibrosis stage showed that advanced fibrosis with or without DM was a risk factor for liver-related events. The combined effect of DM and advanced fibrosis increased the risk of HCC onset. However, DM alone or in combination with NAS did not affect the development of liver-related events, including the occurrence of HCC and complications of liver cirrhosis. While the assessment of fibrosis in patients with MASLD is important for evaluating the risk of developing liver-related events, combining the assessment of DM may be possible to stratify groups at higher risk of developing HCC.

Serum autotaxin is a prognostic indicator of liver-related events in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Circulating autotaxin (ATX) levels have been reported to correlate with liver inflammation activity and liver fibrosis severity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The objective of this study is to investigate whether serum ATX could predict liver-related events (LRE) in NAFLD patients. This retrospective investigation includes 309 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients registered at Shinshu University Hospital. All patients are followed for at least 1 year, during which time the prevalence of LRE, including newly developing hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, and esophagogastric varices, is investigated in relation to ATX levels at the time of liver biopsy. During the median follow-up period of 7.0 years, LRE are observed in 20 patients (6.5%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and cut-off value of serum ATX for predicting LRE are 0.81 and 1.227 mg/l, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for LRE determine ATX and advanced fibrosis as independently associated factors. Furthermore, in a competing risk analysis that considered non-liver-related death as a competing event, ATX (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.22-4.30, p = 0.010) is identified as an independent factor associated with LRE, along with advanced fibrosis (HR 8.01, 95% CI 2.10-30.60, p = 0.002). The predictive utility of ATX for LRE is validated in an independent cohort. Serum ATX may serve as a predictive marker for LRE in patients with NAFLD.

Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography Scores to Predict Liver-Related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis. To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD. This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE). The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests. A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group. Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

The associations between fibrosis changes and liver-related events in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

The prognosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is associated with liver fibrosis. We investigated the associations between changes in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) over 3-year period and the development of cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with MASLD. This study involved patients with MASLD who underwent transient elastography at baseline and 3 years after baseline from 2012 to 2020. Low (L), indeterminate (I) and high (H) LSM values were classified as <8 kPa, 8-12 kPa and >12 kPa respectively. Among 1738 patients, 150 (8.6%) were diagnosed with cirrhosis or HCC. The proportions of patients with L, I and H risk were 69.7%, 19.9% and 10.5% at baseline, and 78.8%, 12.8% and 8.4% at 3 years after baseline, respectively. The incidence rates of cirrhosis or HCC per 1000 person-years were 3.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-5.5) in the L → L + I group, 23.9 (95% CI, 17.1-32.6) in the I → L + I group, 38.3 (95% CI, 22.3-61.3) in the H → L + I group, 62.5 (95% CI, 32.3-109.2) in the I → H group, 67.8 (95% CI, 18.5-173.6) in the L → H group and 93.9 (95% CI 70.1-123.1) in the H → H group. Two risk factors for the development of cirrhosis or HCC were LSM changes and low platelet counts. LSM changes could predict clinical outcomes in patients with MASLD. Thus, it is important to monitor changes in the fibrotic burden by regular assessment of LSM values.

Biochemical response to obeticholic acid drives liver stiffness variation over time and the risk of liver-related events in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

Biochemical response to obeticholic acid drives liver stiffness variation over time and the risk of liver-related events in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

Performance evaluation of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) score as predictor tool of liver-related events in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

Performance evaluation of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) score as predictor tool of liver-related events in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

Effect of metabolic dysfunction on the risk of liver-related events in patients cured of hepatitis C virus.

The impact of metabolic dysfunction or metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) on liver-related events (LREs) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) who had achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) is unknown. A total of 924 patients with cured CHC and documented body mass index (BMI) were included in the analysis, and the data period was from September 2012 to April 2022. Hepatic steatosis was identified either through ultrasonography or blood biomarkers. Metabolic dysfunction was defined as the presence of overweight or obesity (BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2), type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), and metabolic dysregulation. Patients may have more than one metabolic dysfunction. Variables at 12 or 24 weeks after DAA therapy (PW12) were used to identify predictors of LREs. The median age of the 924 patients was 58 (49-65) years. Of the participants, 418 (45.2%) were male. The median BMI was 24.01 (21.78-26.73) kg/m2, and 174 (18.8%) patients had DM. A multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that age, male, albumin, total bilirubin, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), metabolic dysfunction (hazard ratio: 1.709, 95% confidence interval: 1.128-2.591, P = .011), and FIB-4 > 3.25 were independent predictors of LREs. Type 2 DM and metabolic dysregulation exhibited a larger time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for LREs than did overweight or obesity. Moreover, metabolic dysfunction was identified to be an independent predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma. Metabolic dysfunction increased the risk of LREs and HCC in patients with CHC who had achieved an SVR to DAA therapy.

Prediction of outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease based on initial measurements and subsequent changes in magnetic resonance elastography.

The prognosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is strongly associated with liver fibrosis. We aimed to investigate whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and changes in LSM (ΔLSM) on magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) can predict clinical events in patients with MASLD. We included 405 patients with MASLD who underwent at least two MREs. The patients were divided into five groups corresponding to fibrosis stages (0-4) based on initial LSM and classified as progressors (ΔLSM ≥ 19%) or non-progressors (ΔLSM < 19%) based on the difference between the first and last LSM. The mean follow-up period was 72.6months, and the mean interval between MREs was 23.5months. There were 52 (12.8%) progressors and 353 (87.2%) non-progressors. The initial LSM was significantly associated with the cumulative probabilities of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver-related events, extrahepatic malignancies, and overall mortality but not with cardiovascular disease. Progressors had significantly higher hazard ratios (HRs) for decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related events but not for extrahepatic malignancies, cardiovascular disease, or overall mortality. Among patients without cirrhosis, the HR for developing cirrhosis among progressors was 60.15. Progressors had a significantly higher risk of liver-related events, even in the low initial LSM (fibrosis stage 0-2) subgroups. Both initial LSM and ΔLSM can predict liver-related events in patients with MASLD, even for low initial LSM. This integrated assessment can allow more detailed risk stratification compared with single LSM assessments and identify high-risk patients with MASLD among those previously considered as low risk.

The impact of transmembrane 6 superfamily 2 (TM6SF2) rs58542926 on liver-related events in patients with advanced chronic liver disease.

Genetic factors such as the transmembrane 6 superfamily 2 (TM6SF2) rs58542926 single nucleotide variant(SNV) modulate the susceptibility for (advanced) chronic liver disease ([A]CLD). However, the impact of this variant in patients who have already progressed to ACLD is unknown. The association between TM6SF2-rs58542926 genotype and liver-related events was evaluated in 938 ACLD patients undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. Mean HVPG was 15±7 mmHg and mean UNOS MELD (2016) 11±5 points. Viral hepatitis (n=495, 53%) was the most common cause of ACLD, followed by alcohol-related (ARLD; n=342, 37%) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD; n=101, 11%). While 754 (80%) patients harboured the TM6SF2 wild-type (C/C), 174 (19%) and 10 (1%) patients had one or two T-alleles. At baseline, patients with at least one TM6SF2 T-allele had more pronounced portal hypertension (HVPG: 16±7 vs. 15±7 mmHg; p=0.031), higher gamma-glutamyl transferase levels (123 [63-229] vs. 97 [55-174] UxL-1; p=0.002), and more commonly hepatocellular carcinoma (17% vs. 12%; p=0.049). Harbouring the TM6SF2 T-allele was associated with the composite endpoint hepatic decompensation/liver transplantation/liver-related death (SHR: 1.44 [95%CI: 1.14-1.83]; p=0.003). This was confirmed in multivariable competing risk regression analyses that were adjusted for severity of portal hypertension and hepatic dysfunction at baseline. The TM6SF2 variant modulates liver disease progression beyond the development of ACLD, as it modifies the risks of hepatic decompensation and liver-related death, independently of baseline liver disease severity.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

Association of Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibition With Liver-Related Events and Mortality in Compensated Cirrhosis

While renin-angiotensin system inhibition lowers the hepatic venous gradient, the effect on more clinically meaningful endpoints is less studied. We aimed to quantify the relationship between renin-angiotensin system inhibition and liver-related events (LREs) among adults with compensated cirrhosis. In this national cohort study using the Optum database, we quantified the association between angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin-receptor blocker (ARB) use and LREs (hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding) among patients with cirrhosis between 2009 and 2019. Selective beta-blocker (SBB) users served as the comparator group. We used demographic and clinical features to calculate inverse-probability treatment weighting-weighted cumulative incidences, absolute risk differences, and Cox proportional hazard ratios. Among 4214 adults with cirrhosis, 3155 were ACE inhibitor/ARB users and 1059 were SBB users. In inverse probability treatment weighting-weighted analyses, ACE inhibitor/ARB (vs SBB) users had lower 5-year cumulative incidence (30.6% [95% confidence interval (CI), 27.8% to 33.2%] vs 41.3% [95% CI, 34.0% to 47.7%]; absolute risk difference,-10.7% [95% CI, -18.1% to -3.6%]) and lower risk of LREs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.80). There was a dose-response relationship: compared with SBB use, ACE inhibitor/ARB prescriptions ≥1 defined daily dose (aHR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.76) were associated with a greater risk reduction compared with <1 defined daily dose (aHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.07). Results were robust across sensitivity analyses such as comparing ACE inhibitor/ARB users with nonusers and as-treated analysis. In this national cohort study, ACE inhibitor/ARB use was associated with significantly lower risk of LREs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. These results provide support for a randomized clinical trial to confirm clinical benefit.

Agile 3+ and Agile 4, noninvasive tests for liver fibrosis, are excellent formulae to predict liver-related events in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

The noninvasive tests (NITs) Agile 3+ and Agile 4 effectively identify patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) complicated with advanced fibrosis (F3-4) and cirrhosis (F4), respectively. Little information is available on associations between Agile scores and intra-/extrahepatic events. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive performance of Agile scores for intra-/extrahepatic events in Asian patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. We undertook a retrospective multicenter cohort study to investigate associations between intra-/extrahepatic events and two Agile scores, Agile 3+ and Agile 4. The scores were obtained by combining clinical parameters and liver stiffness measurement using transient elastography. Among 403 enrolled patients, 11 had liver-related events (LREs), including seven with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The incidence of LREs and HCC showed a stepwise increase in the advanced fibrosis group (F3-4), Agile 3+ rule-in (F3-4, highly suspected), and Agile 4 rule-in (F4, highly suspected) groups, compared to their counterparts. Hazard ratios for LREs in the advanced fibrosis group, Agile 3+ rule-in, and Agile 4 rule-in groups were 4.05 (p=0.03), 23.5 (p=0.003), and 45.5 (p<0.001), respectively. The predictive performance results for Agile 3+ and Agile 4 were 0.780 and 0.866, respectively, which were higher than for fibrosis (0.595). Unlike for LREs, Agile scores failed to identify patients with extrahepatic events, including cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancer. Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores are excellent NITs for predicting LREs in patients with NAFLD, possibly without histological assessment.

Impact of PNPLA3 rs738409 Polymorphism on the Development of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Background and AimsNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a complex disease, resulting from the interplay between environmental determinants and genetic variations. Single nucleotide polymorphism rs738409 C>G in the PNPLA3 gene is associated with hepatic fibrosis and with higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma. Here, we analyzed a longitudinal cohort of biopsy-proven NAFLD subjects with the aim to identify individuals in whom genetics may have a stronger impact on disease progression. MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed 756 consecutive, prospectively enrolled biopsy-proven NAFLD subjects from Italy, United Kingdom, and Spain who were followed for a median of 84 months (interquartile range, 65–109 months). We stratified the study cohort according to sex, body mass index (BMI) </≥30 kg/m2) and age (</≥50 years). Liver-related events (hepatic decompensation, hepatic encephalopathy, esophageal variceal bleeding, and hepatocellular carcinoma) were recorded during the follow-up and the log-rank test was used to compare groups. ResultsOverall, the median age was 48 years and most individuals were men (64.7%). The PNPLA3 rs738409 genotype was CC in 235 (31.1%), CG in 328 (43.4%), and GG in 193 (25.5%) patients. At univariate analysis, the PNPLA3 GG risk genotype was associated with female sex and inversely related to BMI (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.1–2.2; P = .006; and odds ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.94–0.99; P = .043, respectively). Specifically, PNPLA3 GG risk homozygosis was more prevalent in female vs male individuals (31.5% vs 22.3%; P = .006) and in nonobese compared with obese NAFLD subjects (50.0% vs 44.2%; P = .011). Following stratification for age, sex, and BMI, we observed an increased incidence of liver-related events in the subgroup of nonobese women older than 50 years of age carrying the PNPLA3 GG risk genotype (log-rank test, P = .0047). ConclusionsNonobese female patients with NAFLD 50 years of age and older, and carrying the PNPLA3 GG risk genotype, are at higher risk of developing liver-related events compared with those with the wild-type allele (CC/CG). This finding may have implications in clinical practice for risk stratification and personalized medicine.

Association Between the Presence of Metabolic Comorbidities and Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and (liver-related) mortality. In addition to hepatitis B related factors, metabolic comorbidities may contribute to the progression of fibrosis. Therefore, we studied the association between metabolic comorbidities and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of CHB patients attending the Erasmus MC, the Netherlands and CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy in the Toronto General Hospital, Canada. Presence of metabolic comorbidities (i.e. overweight, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidemia) was assessed based on chart review. The primary endpoint was liver-related events, defined as the first composite of HCC, liver transplantation or liver-related mortality. We analyzed 1850 patients of which 926 (50.1%) patients were overweight, 161 (8.7%) had hypertension, 116 (6.3%) had dyslipidemia and 82 (4.4%) had diabetes. During a median follow-up of 7.3 years (IQR 2.9-11.5) a total of 111 first events were recorded. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] 8.3, 95%CI 5.5-12.7), diabetes (HR 5.4, 95%CI 3.2-9.1), dyslipidemia (HR 2.8, 95%CI 1.6-4.8) and overweight (HR 1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.5) were associated with increased risk for liver-related events. Presence of multiple comorbidities further increased the risk. Findings were consistent for patients with and without cirrhosis, among non-cirrhotic HBeAg-negative patients with HBV DNA <2,000 IU/mL and in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, HBeAg status, HBV DNA, use of antiviral therapy and presence of cirrhosis. Metabolic comorbidities in CHB patients are associated with increased risk for liver-related events, with the highest risk observed in patients with multiple comorbidities. Findings were consistent in various clinically relevant subgroups underscoring the need for thorough metabolic assessment in patients with CHB.

Incidence and Predictors of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the commonest type of liver disease worldwide. We aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of liver-related events (LREs) and mortality in NAFLD patients. NAFLD patients (n= 957) evaluated between January2000 and November2021 were included. Patients were categorised as noncirrhosis (NC), compensated cirrhosis (CC) and decompensated cirrhosis (DC), and the incidence of LRE and mortality were estimated and compared. The proportions of NC, CCand DC were 87.8% (n= 840), 8.8% (n= 84) and 3.4% (n= 33), respectively. The median follow-up duration was 3.9 (3.0-5.7) years, and the total cumulative duration was 4633 person-years. The incidence of LRE per 100 person-years was 0.14, 2.72 and 10.24 in patients with NC, CCand DC, respectively. The incidence of mortality was 0.12, 1.05 and 4.24 per 100 person-years, respectively, in the 3 groups. The causes of mortality in the 3 groups were liver related in 1/5 (20%), 3/4 (75%) and 6/9 (66.7%), respectively. Overall, the mortality rate was higher in those with diabetes than those without diabetes (log-rank P value=0.005). On further analysis, diabetes was associated with poor outcomes only in NC group (log-rank P value=0.036), and not in CC (log-rank P value=0.353) or DC groups (log-rank P value=0.771). On multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.070), hypertension (HR 4.361) and DC (HR 15.036) were independent predictors of poor outcomes. Liver stiffness measurement, bilirubin, CC and DC were independent predictors of LRE. In our study of NAFLD from India, the incidence of LRE was found to be similar to that seen in Western studies. In NC NAFLD, diabetes was associated with poor outcomes.

Combined Liver Stiffness and Α-fetoprotein Further beyond the Sustained Virologic Response Visit as Predictors of Long-Term Liver-Related Events in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C.

Aims Long-term risk stratification using combined liver stiffness (LS) and clinically relevant blood tests acquired at the baseline further beyond the sustained virologic response (SVR) visit for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has not been thoroughly investigated. This study retrospectively investigated the prognostics of liver-related events (LREs) further beyond the SVR visit. Methods Cox regression and random forest models identified the key factors, including longitudinal LS and noninvasive test results, that could predict LREs, including hepatocellular carcinoma, during prespecified follow-ups from 2010 to 2021. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis estimated the significance of between-group risk stratification. Results Of the entire eligible cohort (n = 520) of CHC patients with SVR to antiviral therapy, 28 (5.4%) patients developed post-SVR LREs over a median follow-up period of 6.1 years (interquartile range = 3.5–8.7). The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified two significant predictors of LREs after the year 3 post-SVR (Y3PSVR) baseline (LRE, n = 15 of 28, 53.6%, median follow-up = 4.1 [1.6–6.4] years after Y3PSVR): LS at Y3PSVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.980, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.085–7.597, P < 0.001), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) at Y3PSVR (aHR = 1.017, 95% CI = 1.001–1.034, P=0.034). LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL for Y3PSVR yielded positive likelihood ratios of 4.24 and 2.62, respectively. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that among the stratified subgroups, the subgroup with concurrent LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL at Y3PSVR exhibited the highest risk of LREs after Y3PSVR (log-rank P < 0.001). Conclusion We recommend the combined use of concurrent LS and AFP in future prediction models for LREs in CHC. Patients with concurrently high LS and AFP values further beyond the SVR visit may require a recall policy involving intense surveillance.

OS043 - Young-onset diabetes mellitus increases the risk of liver-related events in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

OS043 - Young-onset diabetes mellitus increases the risk of liver-related events in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

FRI101 - Diagnostic performance of AGILE 3+ score for identification of advanced fibrosis and prediction of liver-related events in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

FRI101 - Diagnostic performance of AGILE 3+ score for identification of advanced fibrosis and prediction of liver-related events in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Risk of liver-related events by age and diabetes duration in patients with diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Several guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to determine if there is a threshold of age and duration of T2D for liver-related event development to guide screening strategies. We conducted a territory-wide retrospective cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD and T2D diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 in Hong Kong to allow for at least 5 years of follow-up. The primary endpoint was liver-related events, defined as a composite of HCC and cirrhotic complications. This study included 7028 patients with NAFLD with T2D (mean age, 56.1 ± 13.3 years; 3363 male [47.9%]). During a follow-up of 77,308 person-years, there was a threshold effect with 1.1%, 4.9%, and 94.0% of patients developing liver-related events at the age of <40, 40-50, and ≥50 years, respectively. Similarly, 3.1%, 5.1%, and 91.8% of patients developed cirrhosis at the age of <40, 40-50, and ≥50 years, respectively. In contrast, liver-related events increased linearly with diabetes duration, with no difference in the annual incidence rate between the first 10 years of T2D diagnosis and subsequent years (0.06% vs. 0.10%; p = 0.136). On multivariable analysis, baseline age ≥50 years (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.01) and cirrhosis (aHR 3.12) were the strongest risk factors associated with liver-related events. Substitution of cirrhosis with the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index or the Fibrosis-4 index yielded similar results. Age rather than duration of T2D predicts liver-related events in patients with NAFLD and T2D. It is reasonable to screen patients with NAFLD and T2D for advanced liver disease starting at 50 years of age.

Multiinstitutional Evaluation of the Liver Surface Nodularity Score on CT for Staging Liver Fibrosis and Predicting Liver-Related Events in Patients With Hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND. In single-institution multireader studies, the liver surface nodularity (LSN) score accurately detects advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis and predicts liver decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) from hepatitis C virus (HCV). OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to assess the diagnostic performance of the LSN score alone and in combination with the (FIB-4; fibrosis index based on four factors) to detect advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis and to predict future liver-related events in a multiinstitutional cohort of patients with CLD from HCV. METHODS. This retrospective study included 40 consecutive patients, from each of five academic medical centers, with CLD from HCV who underwent nontargeted liver biopsy within 6 months before or after abdominal CT. Clinical data were recorded in a secure web-based database. A single central reader measured LSN scores using software. Diagnostic performance for detecting liver fibrosis stage was determined. Multivariable models were constructed to predict baseline liver decompensation and future liver-related events. RESULTS. After exclusions, the study included 191 patients (67 women, 124 men; mean age, 54 years) with fibrosis stages of F0-F1 (n = 37), F2 (n = 44), F3 (n = 46), and F4 (n = 64). Mean LSN score increased with higher stages (F0-F1, 2.26 ± 0.44; F2, 2.35 ± 0.37; F3, 2.42 ± 0.38; F4, 3.19 ± 0.89; p < .001). The AUC of LSN score alone was 0.87 for detecting advanced fibrosis (≥ F3) and 0.89 for detecting cirrhosis (F4), increasing to 0.92 and 0.94, respectively, when combined with FIB-4 scores (both p = .005). Combined scores at optimal cutoff points yielded sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 82% for advanced fibrosis, and sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 85% for cirrhosis. In multivariable models, LSN score was the strongest predictor of baseline liver decompensation (odds ratio, 14.28 per 1-unit increase; p < .001) and future liver-related events (hazard ratio, 2.87 per 1-unit increase; p = .03). CONCLUSION. In a multiinstitutional cohort of patients with CLD from HCV, LSN score alone and in combination with FIB-4 score exhibited strong diagnostic performance in detecting advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. LSN score also predicted future liver-related events. CLINICAL IMPACT. The LSN score warrants a role in clinical practice as a quantitative marker for detecting advanced liver fibrosis, compensated cirrhosis, and decompensated cirrhosis and for predicting future liver-related events in patients with CLD from HCV.