Liver Disease Scoring System Research Articles

Sex disparity in liver allocation within Eurotransplant

In Eurotransplant, relatively more females than males die while waiting for liver transplantation, and relatively fewer females undergo transplantation. With adult liver transplantation candidates listed between 2007 and 2019 (n = 21 170), we study whether sex disparity is inherent to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system, or the indirect result of a small candidate body size limiting access to transplantation. Cox proportional hazard models are used to quantify the direct effect of sex on waitlist mortality, independent of the effect of sex through MELD scores, and the direct effect of sex on the transplantation rate, independent of the effect of sex through MELD and candidate body size. Adjusted waitlist mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for female sex are insignificant (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.88-1.20). We thus lack evidence that MELD systematically underestimates waitlist mortality rates for females. Transplantation rates are 25% lower for females than males in unadjusted analyses (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.71-0.77), but HRs become insignificant with adjustment for mediators (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.93-1.04), most importantly candidate body size. Sex disparity in Eurotransplant thus appears to be largely a consequence of lower transplantation rates for females, which are explained by sex differences in body size.

Lobe-Based Hepatic Uptake Index of Gd-EOB-DTPA on Contrast-Enhanced MRI to Quantitatively Discriminate between Compensated and Decompensated Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis.

To use hepatic uptake index (HUI) of liver lobes on gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (Gd-EOB-DTPA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to discriminate between patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis in compensated and decompensated statuses. Forty-four consecutive patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis who underwent Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI were divided into compensated and decompensated statuses based on clinical evaluation. Volume and signal intensity of individual lobes were retrospectively measured to calculate HUI of the right liver lobe (RHUI), medial (MHUI) and lateral (LHUI) left liver lobes, and caudate lobe (CHUI). Spearman's rank correlation analyses were performed to evaluate relationships of lobe-based HUI with Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system scores in compensated and decompensated statuses. The Mann-Whitney U-test was used to compare the lobe-based HUI between compensated and decompensated statuses. The performance of lobe-based HUI in distinguishing cirrhosis was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated as a measure of accuracy. Delong's method was used for statistical analysis to elucidate which HUI is optimal. Compensated and decompensated liver cirrhosis were confirmed in 25 (56.82%) and 19 (43.18%) patients, respectively. According to Spearman's rank correlation analysis, RHUI, MHUI, LHUI, and CHUI were all significantly associated with Child-Pugh and MELD scores (all P values <0.05). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that among all lobe-based HUI parameters, RHUI could best perform the previous discrimination with a cut-off of 485.73 and obtain an AUC of 0.867. The AUC of RHUI improved and was significantly different from that of MHUI, LHUI, and CHUI (P = 0.03, P = 0.007, and P < 0.001, respectively, Delong's test). The RHUI could help quantitatively discriminate hepatitis B-related cirrhosis between compensated and decompensated statuses.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation.

Liver transplantation is the main treatment for cholestatic liver disease and some metabolic liver diseases in children. However, no accurate prediction model to determine the survival probability of grafts prior to surgery exists. This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic model for allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation. This retrospective cohort study included 2032 patients who underwent pediatric liver transplantation between January 1, 2006, and January 1, 2020. A nomogram was developed using Cox regression and validated based on bootstrap sampling. Predictive and discriminatory accuracies were determined using the concordance index and visualized using calibration curves; net benefits were calculated for model comparison. An online Shiny application was developed for easy access to the model. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that preoperative diagnosis, recipient age, body weight, graft type, preoperative total bilirubin, interleukin-1β, portal venous blood flow direction, spleen thickness, and the presence of heart disease and cholangitis were independent factors for survival, all of which were selected in the nomogram. Calibration of the nomogram indicated that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year predicted survival rates agreed with the actual survival rate. The concordance indices for graft survival at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.776, 0.757, and 0.753, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of the Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Pugh scoring systems. The allograft dysfunction risk of a recipient could be easily predicted using the following URL: https://aspelt.shinyapps.io/ASPELT/ / CONCLUSION: The allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation (ASPELT) score model can effectively predict the graft survival rate after liver transplantation in children, providing a simple and convenient evaluation method for clinicians and patients.

Comparing Jaffe and Enzymatic Methods for Creatinine Measurement at Various Icterus Levels and Their Impacts on Liver Transplant Allocation.

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system is used to prioritize liver transplantations and assess disease severity. This includes the international normalized ratio (INR), creatinine, and total bilirubin. Since there are several ways to measure creatinine, MELD scores can produce inconsistent results. The objectives of this study were to define a valid cut-off for bilirubin interference in creatinine measurement and to assess the effects of various icteric levels on creatinine measurement and liver transplant allocation. A total of 400 serum samples were categorized into four groups based on their icteric indices and total bilirubin levels, including non-, mild, moderate, and severe icteric samples. Both chemical Jaffe and enzymatic techniques were used to determine the creatinine levels in all four groups, and the findings were compared. In parallel, serum samples from 83 liver transplant candidate patients were divided into three groups depending on their bilirubin levels and then similarly evaluated and interpreted. The MELD scores were then computed for each group and compared. In icteric samples, the enzymatic method produced higher results for the creatinine concentrations than the Jaffe method did, and the mean creatinine difference rose from 0.08 in nonicteric group to 1.95 in groups with severe icterus. In addition, the enzymatic approach yielded higher findings for creatinine and subsequently for MELD scores in patients who were liver transplant candidates. When the bilirubin concentration was above the 4 mg/dL threshold, there were differences between the approaches for both the creatinine and the MELD score (p values: 0.0001 and 0.027, respectively). The chemical Jaffe is a readily available and considerably cost-effective method for measuring creatinine. However, it is influenced by a variety of known and unknown interfering substances, and it should be applied cautiously when working with icteric samples. Alternate techniques such as the enzymatic method should be considered when the bilirubin level exceeds 4 mg/dL. Though this cut-off is instrument and kit-dependent, each laboratory is advised to have its cut-off for bilirubin interference.

Co-Relation between MELD Scoring System prior Living Donor Liver Transplantation and Occurrence of Post-Transplant Biliary Complications

Background Liver transplantation is considered the treatment of choice for patients with end stage liver disease who have failed standard medical and surgical therapy. The development of liver transplantation has revolutionized the field of hepatology and greatly improved the outlook of patients suffering from various liver diseases. The Model for EndStage Liver Disease, or MELD, is a scoring system for assessing the severity of chronic liver disease. It was initially developed to predict mortality within three months of surgery in patients who had undergone a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure and was subsequently found to be useful in determining prognosis and prioritizing for receipt of a liver transplant. This score is now used by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) and Eurotransplant for prioritizing allocation of liver transplants instead of the older Child-Pugh score. Biliary tract complications are abundantly occurring post-operative, and they may include a variety of scenarios, as biliary leakage, ischemic bile duct injuries, and biliary stenosis. Aim of the Work Aim of the work is to study the relation between the Model of End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system and the occurrence of post liver transplantation biliary complications. Patients and Methods A combined retrospective and prospective cohort study was carried out. We retrospectively analyzed the available database of all patients that underwent LDLT, at Ain Shams Center of Organ Transplantation (ASCOT), during the period from January 2013 till May 2019, and suffered from post-operative biliary complications during the first 3 months Post-operative and correlated it with their MELD score before the operation. To do so, we studied 50 patients that are aged more than or equal 18 years old, any gender, that underwent living donor liver transplantation. We excluded patients with cholestatic liver disease and patients that underwent preoperative biliary intervention. All patients were subjected to complete history taking and thorough clinical examination, full laboratory workup, full radiological workup, post-operative cholangiography and Endoscopic retrograde colangio-pancreatography if needed.

Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes of Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Patients with a High Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score

The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system can predict short-term survival among patients awaiting liver transplantation and is used to allocate organs prioritizing liver transplantation. Patients with high MELD scores have been reported to have worse early graft dysfunction and survival. However, recent studies have shown that patients with high MELD scores had satisfactory graft survival, although they showed more postoperative complications. In this study, we examined the effect of the MELD score on the short-term and long-term prognosis of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). This study included 102 patients who underwent LDLT in our institution between 2005 and 2020. The patients were divided into 3 groups according to MELD score (low MELD group: ≤20, moderate MELD group: 21-30, and high MELD group: ≥31). Perioperative factors were compared among the 3 groups, and cumulative overall survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The patients' characteristics were comparable, and the median age was 54 years. Hepatitis C virus cirrhosis was the most common primary disease (n=40), followed by hepatitis B virus (n=11). The low MELD group consisted of 68 patients (median score: 16, 10-20); the moderate MELD group, 24 patients (median score: 24, 21-30); and the high MELD group, 10 patients (median score: 35, 31-40). The mean operative time (1241 min versus 1278 min versus 1158 min, P=.19) and mean blood loss (7517 mL vs 11162 mL vs 8808 mL, P=.71) were not significantly different among the 3 groups. The vascular and biliary complication rates were similar. The periods of intensive care unit and hospital stay tended to be longer in the high MELD group, but the difference was insignificant. The 1-year postoperative survival rate (85.3 % vs 87.5 % vs 90.0 %, P=.90) and overall survival rate were also not significantly different among the 3 groups. Our study showed that LDLT patients with high MELD scores do not have a worse prognosis than those with low scores.

The Role of von Willebrand Factor Antigen in Predicting Survival of Patients with HBV-Related Cirrhosis

Objective The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system cannot be used to assess the deterioration of patients with liver cirrhosis caused by infection and portal hypertension. Elevated von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag) in plasma is associated with portal pressure and complications in patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate whether the addition of vWF-Ag can improve the risk prediction ability of the MELD scoring system. Methods A total of 228 patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver cirrhosis were eligible for inclusion in this retrospective study. The vWF-Ag level was assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The endpoint of this study was defined as the time to liver transplantation or death. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the risk factors associated with transplant-free mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess potential discriminatory variables for transplant-free mortality. Results During a median follow-up interval of 30.23 months, 124 patients (54.4%) reached the endpoint of this study. Patients who died or underwent liver transplantation had elevated levels of MELD and vWF-Ag. Moreover, vWF-Ag and MELD showed comparable predictive potential for transplant-free survival (area under the curve [AUC], vWF-Ag = 0.71; AUC, MELD = 0.73). Ultimately, vWF-Ag can significantly improve the predictive potential of MELD in determining transplant-free mortality (AUC, MELD-vWF-Ag = 0.79, P = 0.006). Conclusion An elevated vWF-Ag level was independently associated with transplant-free mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis. The inclusion of vWF-Ag in the MELD scoring system can improve mortality predictions in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Unresectable Hepatoblastoma, Living Donation and Pre-Transplant Factors Associated with Event-Free Survival

Background: The mainstays of irresectable hepatoblastoma (HB) treatment are surgical resection and cisplatin based (CB) chemotherapy (CHT). However, adequate patient selection is a key to achieve acceptable disease-free survival in patients with unresectable HB undergoing liver transplantation (LT). Procedure: This single-center retrospective analysis of 28 children with HB submitted to LDLT from 1996 to 2019 aimed at determining the pre-transplant factors associated with worse post-transplant event-free survival. The clinical variables collected were gender, age, PELD score (Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease scoring system), type of neoadjuvant CHT (CB versus other regimens), pre- and post- CHT AFP levels, %AFP reduction post CHT (AFP pre-CHT – AFP post- CHT /AFP pre- CHT), PRETEXT stage, primary versus rescue LDLT, time between diagnosis and LDLT, presence of metastases at diagnosis, follow-up time. Results: Patients were divided in groups according to the occurrence of the event (recurrence/death) after LDLT – 10 patients in the event-yes and 18 patients in the event-no. Probability of 5-y event-free survival was 63.9%. AFP reduction &lt; 70% (HR=4.33, 95%CI 1.1 to 16.95, p=0.03), and time from diagnosis to LT &gt; 12 months (HR=4.11, 95%CI 1.14 to 14.76, p=0.03) were associated with higher recurrence/death in the Cox regression analysis. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) reduction post-CHT &gt; 70% had a good performance in determining disease-free survival, with a calculated AUC of 0.8. Conclusion: LT for HB is the preferred treatment option for unresectable HB, with no distant metastasis and adequate response to CHT. AFP reduction &lt; 70%, and time from diagnosis to LT &gt; 12 months were associated with higher recurrence/death However, due to the limited number of patients in this study, a larger number of patients is required to corroborate these findings.

Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease Better Predicts Incident Cardiovascular Disease.

Background/AimsMetabolic dysfunction (MD)-associated fatty liver disease is a new positive diagnostic criterion based on hepatic steatosis and MD. However, a comprehensive evaluation on the association of MD and hepatic steatosis with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) has yet to be performed.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included 333,389 participants from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database who received a health examination between 2009 and 2010. Hepatic steatosis was defined using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey-derived nonalcoholic fatty liver disease scoring system. Cox proportional hazards regression was adopted to determine the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for CVD according to the presence of hepatic steatosis and MD, as well as the composite term.ResultsThis study included 179,437 men and 153,952 women with a median age of 57 years. Hepatic steatosis with MD (aHR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.89 to 2.13) and without MD (aHR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.54) significantly increased the risk of CVD compared to no steatosis without MD (reference). However, steatosis revealed no significant difference in the risk of CVD compared to no steatosis among participants with one MD (aHR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.30). In participants with steatosis, the presence of one and ≥2 MDs had aHR values of 1.25 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.79) and 1.71 (95% CI, 1.22 to 2.41), respectively, compared to no MD.ConclusionsCombined consideration of hepatic steatosis and MD was significantly associated with increased CVD risk and showed better predictive performance for CVD than hepatic steatosis or MD alone.

Comparison of Scores for Child-Pugh Criteria and Standard and Modified Models for End-Stage Liver Disease to Assess Cardiac Hepatopathy in Heart Transplant Recipients.

Congestive hepatopathy as a result of advanced heart failure correlates with poor outcomes. Thus, risk-scoring systems have been established to assess the risks for cardiac surgery and hearttransplant, although these systems were originally designed to measure mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease. We compared the scores for the Child-Pugh criteria andstandardandmodifiedModels for End-Stage LiverDisease to evaluate the effect of preoperative liver dysfunction on postoperative outcomes inpatients with heart failure who underwent heart transplant. Data of 60 consecutive patients who underwent orthotopic heart transplant were analyzed from a historical cohort study from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018. We calculated the scores for Child-Pugh criteria and the standard and modified Models for End-Stage Liver Disease. Of the 60 total patients, 48 were male patients, with a median age of 43 years (range, 13-69 years). Twenty patients died before the end of the study. The causes of death were cardiac, liver, and renal diseases. The mortality risk increased 25% (interquartile range, 0.05-0.51) for the patients with 1 point higher score compared with the patients with 1 point lower score based on a modified Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (P = .01). Preoperative liver dysfunction has a significant effect on patient survival. The modified Modelfor End-Stage LiverDisease scoring system could be an effective predictor of perioperative risk stratification for patients with congestive hepatopathy who are undergoing cardiac transplant.

In vivo diffuse reflectance spectroscopic analysis of fatty liver with inflammation in mice

BackgroundNonalcoholic steatohepatitis is a progressive liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and hepatic failure. Thus, the diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, especially discrimination from nonalcoholic fatty liver, is crucial, but reliable methods other than invasive biopsy have not been established yet. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, which does not require tissue collection, to evaluate the pathological states of fatty liver with inflammation. Materials and MethodsWe performed in vivo optical fiber-based diffuse reflectance spectroscopy in both the near-infrared and visible spectral regions for livers in STAM mice, which typically show steatosis at 6 weeks, steatohepatitis at 8 weeks, and fibrosis at 12 weeks of age. After diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, all of the liver tissues were histologically analyzed and scored on the basis of the rodent nonalcoholic fatty liver disease scoring system. We examined correlations between the diffuse reflectance spectra and scores associated with steatosis and inflammation. Results and ConclusionThe results showed that the second derivative values of reflectance at 1204 nm, the lipid absorption peak in the near-infrared region, were strongly correlated with steatosis scores (r = 0.9172, P < .0001, n = 20) and that the differences of the first derivative values of reflectance in the visible region (570 nm − 550 nm) that reflect hemoglobin deoxygenation were significantly correlated with inflammation scores (r = 0.5260, P = .0172, n = 20). These results suggest that our diffuse reflectance spectroscopy method is useful for diagnosis of the states of steatosis with inflammation in livers and hence nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

Combining Donor and Recipient Age With Preoperative MELD and UKELD Scores for Predicting Survival After Liver Transplantation.

The end-stage liver disease scoring systems MELD, UKELD, and D-MELD (donor age × MELD) have had mediocre results for survival assessment after orthotopic liver transplant. Here, we introduced new indices based on preoperative MELD and UKELDscores and assessed their predictive ability on survival posttransplant. We included 1017 deceased donor orthotopic liver transplants that were performed between 2008 (the year UKELD was introduced) and 2019. Donor and recipient characteristics, liver disease scores, transplant characteristics, and outcomes were collected for analyses. D-MELD, D-UKELD (donor age × UKELD),DR-MELD[(donor age + recipient age) × MELD], and DR-UKELD [(donor age + recipient age) × UKELD] were calculated. No score had predictive value for graft survival. For patient survival,DR-MELD and DR-UKELD provided the best results but with low accuracy. The highest accuracy was observed at 1 year posttransplant (areas under the curve of 0.598 [95% CI, 0.529-0.667] and 0.609 [95% CI, 0.549-0.67]forDR-MELDandDR-UKELD). Addition of donor and recipient age significantly improved the predictive abilities of MELD and UKELD for patient survival, but addition of donor age alone did not. For 1-year mortality (using receiver operating characteristic curves), optimal cut-off points were DR-MELD>2345 and DR-UKELD>5908. Recipients with DR-MELD >2345 (P < .001) and DR-UKELD >5908 (P = .002) had worse patient survival within the first year, but only DR-MELD >2345 remained significant after multivariable analysis (P = .007). DR-MELD and DR-UKELD scores provided the best, albeit mediocre, predictive ability among the 6 tested models, especially at 1 year after posttransplant, although only for patient but not for graft survival. A DR-MELD >2345 was considered to be an additional independent risk factor for worse recipient survival within the first postoperative year.

Pediatric Wilson disease presenting as acute liver failure: Prognostic indices.

BACKGROUNDAcute liver failure (ALF) can be a primary presentation of Wilson disease (WD). Mortality rates are high in WD with ALF (WDALF). Predictions of mortality in WDALF vary by model and are sometimes contradictory, perhaps because few patients are studied or WD diagnoses are questionable. AIMTo determine the outcomes among well-documented WDALF patients and assess mortality model performance in this cohort.METHODSWe reviewed the medical records of our pediatric WDALF patients (n = 41 over 6-years-old, single-center retrospective study) and compared seven prognostic models (King’s College Hospital Criteria, model for end-stage liver disease/pediatric end-stage liver disease scoring systems, Liver Injury Unit [LIU] using prothrombin time [PT] or international normalized ratio [INR], admission LIU using PT or INR, and Devarbhavi model) with one another.RESULTSAmong the 41 Han Chinese patients with ALF, WD was established by demonstrating ATP7B variants in 36. In 5 others, Kayser-Fleischer rings and Coombs-negative hemolytic anemia permitted diagnosis. Three died during hospitalization and three underwent liver transplantation (LT) within 1 mo of presentation and survived (7.3% each); 35 (85.4%) survived without LT when given enteral D-penicillamine and zinc-salt therapy with or without urgent plasmapheresis. Parameters significantly correlated with mortality included encephalopathy, coagulopathy, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase activity, bilirubin, ammonia, and serum sodium levels. Area under the receiver operating curves varied among seven prognostic models from 0.981 to 0.748 with positive predictive values from 0.214 to 0.429.CONCLUSIONWDALF children can survive and recover without LT when given D-penicillamine and Zn with or without plasmapheresis, even after enlisting for LT.

Validation of fatty liver disease scoring systems for ultrasound diagnosed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adolescents

Background and AimsThe incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing in young populations. However, there are inadequate data regarding diagnosis of NAFLD. We aimed to validate three scoring systems against a previous standard of suprailiac skinfold thickness for diagnosing NAFLD in population-based adolescents. MethodsSeventeen-year-old adolescents (n = 899), participating in the Raine Study, attended a cross-sectional follow-up. NAFLD was diagnosed using liver ultrasound. Scores for Fatty liver index (FLI), Hepatic Steatosis Index (HSI) and Zhejiang University index (ZJU index) were calculated. Diagnostic accuracy of these diagnostic tests was evaluated through discrimination and calibration. ResultsNAFLD was diagnosed 9% in males and 15% in females. The three scoring systems demonstrated better discrimination performance for NAFLD in males (AUC was FLI:0.82, HSI: 0.83 and ZJU index: 0.83) compared to females (AUC was FLI: 0.67, HSI: 0.67 and ZJU index: 0.67). Suprailiac skinfold performed better than the scoring systems (overall AUC: 0.82; male AUC:0.88; female AUC:0.73). FLI had best calibration performance. ConclusionSuprailiac skinfold thickness was a better predictor of ultrasound-diagnosed NAFLD than the three diagnostic scoring systems investigated. The higher performance characteristics of the algorithmic scoring systems in males compared with females may have implications for use in population assessments.

Development of a simple nonalcoholic fatty liver disease scoring system indicative of metabolic risks and insulin resistance.

BackgroundNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is estimated to affect approximately 30% population worldwide. However, there is yet a basic and generally implementable approach to define individuals at risk for NAFLD estimative of metabolic risk.MethodsTotal of 3,634 general participants without history of liver disease and alcohol consumption who received the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2008 and 2010 were studied. Logistic regression was used to identify significant covariates indicative of NAFLD. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was carried out for evaluation on estimative impact of the derived score on metabolic risks.ResultsSex [female; odd ratio (OR), 2.492; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.921–3.233; P<0.001], waist circumference (WC) (OR, 1.093; 95% CI, 1.077–1.110, P<0.001) systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.033; 95% CI, 1.025–1.040; P<0.001), fasting serum glucose (FSG) (OR, 1.032; 95% CI, 1.026–1.038; P<0.001), triglyceride (OR, 1.007; 95% CI, 1.006–1.009; P<0.001), and alanine aminotransferase (OR, 1.110; 95% CI, 1.097–1.124; P<0.001) were independently indicative of NAFLD, which constituted the derived scoring system. The system revealed a significant correlation with the NAFLD liver fat score, fatty liver index (FLI), body mass index, age, alanine aminotransferase, and triglycerides (BAAT) score, lipid accumulation product, and hepatic steatosis index. In addition, the derived score was significantly estimative of insulin resistance.ConclusionsThe developed score may be supportive of stratification of individuals at high risk of NAFLD, non-invasive fast diagnosis of NAFLD, and estimation of metabolic risk. Future studies that compare the derived score with standard diagnostic tests-validated data, such as ultrasonography of the liver, are needed.

Analysis of prognostic risk factors and establishment of prognosis model in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Objective To explore the risk factors for prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), and to establish a prognostic model. Methods A total of 193 patients diagnosed with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University were collected from 1st January 2013 to 1st November 2018 as a derivation cohort. Thirty-five patients diagnosed with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to the Fifth Hospital of Shijiazhuang during the period from 1st July 2017 to 1st November 2018 were collected as a validation cohort. The survival condition of all patients at week 12 of admission was observed. The risk factors associated with short-term prognosis were analyzed by using multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a logistic regression equation prediction model was established and verified. The diagnostic performance of the prognostic model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and was compared with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scoring system, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring system and chronic liver failure (CLIF)-SOFA scoring system. Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio(OR)=2.133, 95% confidence interval(CI)1.033-4.405), total bilirubin (OR=3.371, 95%CI 1.610-7.060), serum creatinine (OR=4.448, 95%CI 1.697-11.661), hepatic encephalopathy (OR=5.313, 95%CI 2.463-11.461), and ascites (OR=2.959, 95%CI 1.410-6.210) were independent risk factors for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The newly established logistic regression model (LRM)=-1.726+ 0.757×age+ 1.215×total bilirubin+ 1.049 2×serum creatinine+ 1.670×hepatic encephalopathy (with=1, without=0) + 1.085×ascites (with=1, without=0). The area under the ROC curve of the LRM for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF was 0.82 (95%CI 0.76-0.88). Furthermore, the areas under the ROC curve of the models of MELD, CTP, SOFA, CLIF-SOFA were 0.67 (95%CI 0.60-0.75), 0.73 (95%CI 0.66-0.80), 0.77 (95%CI 0.70-0.83) and 0.72 (95%CI 0.65-0.80), respectively. The ROC-area under curve of the validation cohort was 0.81 (95%CI 0.65-0.97). Conclusions Age, total bilirubin, serum creatinine, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites are independent risk factors for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. The prognostic model established based on these factors can accurately predict the patients′ short-term prognosis, which is superior to MELD, CTP, SOFA and CLIF-SOFA. Key words: Hepatitis B; Acute-on-chronic liver failure; Regression analysis; Prognostic model

Right ventricular free wall longitudinal strain and stroke work index for predicting right heart failure after left ventricular assist device therapy.

Right heart failure (RHF) is an important prognostic factor in continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy. We aimed to assess the clinical variables associated with RHF after LVAD implantation and to compare their performance against currently available RHF predictive scoring systems. The study cohort comprised 57 patients who underwent LVAD therapy between January 2012 and May 2018 in our centre. The mean age of the patients was 39.9 ± 18.3 years, and 43 (81.1%) of them were men. Thirty-eight patients (66.6%) were in the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) profile I or II. The study cohort was divided into the patients with RHF postoperatively (n = 20, 35.1%) and without RHF (n = 37, 64.9%). Independent predictors for RHF were preoperative right ventricular ejection fraction <25% [odds ratio (OR) 4.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-15.5; P = 0.01], right ventricular stroke work index <400 mmHg ml-1 (OR 3.73, 95% CI 1.01-13.7; P = 0.04), right ventricular outflow tract systolic excursion <7 mm (OR 1.55, 95% CI 0.31-0.84; P = 0.002), right ventricular outflow tract fractional shortening <15% (OR 1.62, 95% CI 0.34-0.78; P = 0.02), right ventricular free wall longitudinal strain ≤19% (OR 3.13, 95% CI 1.01-2.43; P = 0.003), right ventricular fractional area change <27% (OR 3.71, 95% CI 1.15-11.9; P = 0.02) and prealbumin <14 mg/dl (OR 3.45, 95% CI 1.07-11.03; P = 0.03). Modest diagnostic performance for RHF was detected in 4 of 7 validated scoring systems with resulting area under the curve values of 0.70 (95% CI 0.55-0.84; P = 0.001) for the Seattle Heart Failure Model; 0.68 (95% CI 0.49-0.81, P = 0.03) for the Fitzpatrick's; 0.68 (95% CI 0.53-0.83, P = 0.028) for the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II; and 0.66 (95% CI 0.50-0.82, P = 0.04) for the model for end-stage liver disease scoring systems. However, we found best discrimination performance of the score with a resulting area under the curve value of 0.94 (95% CI 0.55-0.89, P = 0.03) for right ventricular free wall longitudinal strain ≥-15.5% and 0.82 for right ventricular stroke work index <400 mmHg ml-1 m-2 in predicting RHF. Right ventricular free wall longitudinal strain ≥-15.5% and right ventricular stroke work index <400 mmHg ml-1 m-2 were independent predictors of RHF following LVAD implantation. Currently available prediction risk scores had the modest power of accuracy in the low INTERMACS profile Turkish population.

Predicting Short- and Long-Term Outcomes in Adult Heart Transplantation: Clinical Utility of MELD-XI Score

BackgroundModel for End-Stage Liver Disease scoring system excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) has been related with worse outcomes after heart transplantation (HT). However, according to standards in prognostic models research, before implementing a risk score for daily clinical decision-making, its performance and impact on clinical practice/outcomes should be evaluated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of the MELD-XI score to predict outcomes in daily clinical practice. Material and MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed 190 consecutive adults undergoing HT between 2005–2015. Patients were stratified into low (MELD-XI <12) and high (MELD-XI ≥12) risk cohorts. Mortality rates at 30 days and 1 year were compared between MELD-XI groups. MELD-XI ability to predict 1-year mortality was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and compared to that of bilirubin, creatinine, and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR). ResultsMortality rates at 30 days and 1 year were similar between groups (8% vs 13%; P = .28 and 21% vs 29%; P = .21, respectively). MELD-XI ability to predict 1-year mortality was poor and similar to that of bilirubin, creatinine, and PVR (0.51 vs 0.47 vs 0.50 vs 0.50, respectively). ConclusionsMELD-XI score utility in HT clinical decision-making is scarce since its discrimination ability is poor and similar to other simple prognostic variables.

Association of mRNA expression level of IP-10 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells with HBV-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure and its prognosis.

HBV-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure is prevalent in mainland China. The prognosis of HBV-ACLF is poor. The mortality of HBV-ACLF is approximately 80%. Therefore, a prognostic indicator was needed in order to allow us to intervene as soon as possible. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system is widely used to predict the prognosis of liver failure. However, the assessment is too complex to restrict its application. This study aimed to investigate the expression of IP-10 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), in order to explore the relationship between the expression and prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The mRNA level of IP-10 in PBMCs were analyzed in 80 patients with HBV-ACLF, 40 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 40 healthy people by fluorescent quantitative PCR. IP-10 mRNA level was significantly higher in the HBV-ACLF group than in the other two groups (P<0.01). Group with MELD score below 30 had lower IP-10 mRNA level than group with MELD score over 30 (P<0.05). The IP-10 mRNA level in PBMCs in positive group was higher than that in negative group (P<0.01). With a threshold of 0.925, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.815. These findings suggest that assessment of IP-10 mRNA level in the PBMCs would be helpful for evaluating the disease severity and prognosis in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Assessment of functional liver reserve: old and new in 99mTc-sulfur colloid scintigraphy.

A semiquantitative assessment of hepatic reticuloendothelial system function using colloidal particles scintigraphy has been proposed previously as a surrogate for liver function evaluation. In this article, we present an updated method for the overall assessment of technetium-99m (Tc)-sulfur colloid (SC) biodistribution that combines information from planar and attenuation-corrected Tc-SC single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images. The imaging protocol described here was developed as an easy-to-implement method to assess overall and regional liver function changes associated with chronic liver disease. Thirty patients with chronic liver disease and primary liver cancers underwent Tc-SC whole-body planar imaging and upper-abdomen SPECT/computed tomography (CT) imaging before external beam radiation therapy. Liver plus spleen and bone marrow counts as a fraction of whole-body total counts were calculated from SC planar imaging. Attenuation correction Tc-SC images were rigidly coregistered with treatment planning CT images that contained liver and spleen regions-of-interest. Ratios of total liver counts to total spleen counts were obtained from the aligned Tc-SC SPECT and CT images, and were subsequently used to separate liver plus spleen counts obtained on the planar images. This hybrid SPECT/CT and planar scintigraphy approach yielded an updated estimation of whole-body SC distribution. These biodistribution estimates were compared with historical data for reference. Statistical associations of Tc-SC biodistribution to liver function parameters and liver disease scoring systems (Child-Pugh) were evaluated by Spearman rank correlation. Percentages of Tc-SC uptake ranged from 19.3 to 77.3% for the liver; 3.4 to 40.7% for the spleen; and 19.0 to 56.7% for the bone marrow. Spearman's correlation coefficient showed a significant statistical association between Child-Pugh score and bone marrow uptake at 0.55 (P≤0.05), liver uptake at 0.71 (P≤0.001), spleen uptake at 0.56 (P≤0.05), and spleen plus bone marrow uptake at 0.71 (P≤0.001). There was also a good correlation of SC uptake percentages with individual quantitative liver function components such as albumin and total bilirubin, and qualitative liver function components (varices, portal hypertension, ascites). For albumin: r=0.64 (P<0.001) compared with liver uptake percentage from the whole-body counts, r=0.49 (P<0.001) compared with splenic uptake percentage, and r=0.45 (P≤0.05) compared with bone marrow uptake percentage. We describe a novel liver function quantitative assessment method that combines whole-body planar images and SPECT/CT attenuation-corrected images of Tc-SC distribution. Attenuation-corrected SC images provide valuable regional liver function information, which is a unique feature compared with other imaging methods available. The results of our study indicate that the Tc-SC uptake by the liver, spleen, and bone marrow correlates with liver function parameters in patients with diffuse liver disease and the correlation with liver disease severity is slightly better for liver uptake percentages than for individual values of bone marrow and spleen uptake percentages.