PurposeDynamically tracking the target by unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) plays a critical role in mobile drone recovery. This study aims to solve this challenge under diverse random disturbances, proposing a dynamic target tracking framework for UGVs based on target state estimation, trajectory prediction, and UGV control.Design/methodology/approachTo mitigate the adverse effects of noise contamination in target detection, the authors use the extended Kalman filter (EKF) to improve the accuracy of locating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Furthermore, a robust motion prediction algorithm based on polynomial fitting is developed to reduce the impact of trajectory jitter caused by crosswinds, enhancing the stability of drone trajectory prediction. Regarding UGV control, a dynamic vehicle model featuring independent front and rear wheel steering is derived. Additionally, a linear time-varying model predictive control algorithm is proposed to minimize tracking errors for the UGV.FindingsTo validate the feasibility of the framework, the algorithms were deployed on the designed UGV. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed dynamic tracking algorithm of UGV under random disturbances.Originality/valueThis paper proposes a tracking framework of UGV based on target state estimation, trajectory prediction and UGV predictive control, enabling the system to achieve dynamic tracking to the UAV under multiple disturbance conditions.