Linear Change Model Research Articles

잠재성장모형을 활용한 교사와 학생 간 친밀감, 개별화 수업, 학업적 자아개념 및 진로성숙도의 종단 분석

This study utilized the longitudinal data from the Korean Education Longitudinal Study (KELS) 2013 (Ⅲ), specifically the 6th to 8th waves, to analyze the structural relationships among teacher-student intimacy, individualized instruction, academic self-concept, and career maturity. The study participants included a total of 7,324 students, with 3,623 boys (49.5%) and 3,701 girls (50.5%). The analysis method utilized was the Multivariate Latent Growth Model (MLGM). The research results showed that first, the analysis of the trajectories of the variables indicated that the fit of the linear change model was better than that of the no-change model, and there was a negative correlation between the initial values and the rates of change of the variables. Second, it was confirmed that teacher-student intimacy and individualized instruction have a significant impact on academic self-concept and career maturity. Third, academic self-concept was found to mediate the related variables. Based on these findings, implications for academic and career development were derived.

Optimal two-time point longitudinal models for estimating individual-level change: Asymptotic insights and practical implications

Based on findings from a simulation study, Parsons and McCormick (2024) argued that growth models with exactly two time points are poorly-suited to model individual differences in linear slopes in developmental studies. Their argument is based on an empirical investigation of the increase in precision to measure individual differences in linear slopes if studies are progressively extended by adding an extra measurement occasion after one unit of time (e.g., year) has passed. They concluded that two-time point models are inadequate to reliably model change at the individual level and that these models should focus on group-level effects. Here, we show that these limitations can be addressed by deconfounding the influence of study duration and the influence of adding an extra measurement occasion on precision to estimate individual differences in linear slopes. We use asymptotic results to gauge and compare precision of linear change models representing different study designs, and show that it is primarily the longer time span that increases precision, not the extra waves. Further, we show how the asymptotic results can be used to also consider irregularly spaced intervals as well as planned and unplanned missing data. In conclusion, we like to stress that true linear change can indeed be captured well with only two time points if careful study design planning is applied before running a study.

Disordered Sleep in Adolescents Recovering From Surgery

Background and objectivesSleep is essential for postoperative recovery. Prescription opioid can be associated with disordered sleep. There is little research on sleep patterns among adolescents using opioids for postoperative pain. Our objective was to identify factors associated with disordered sleep among adolescents undergoing surgery. MethodsProspective single-center survey-based cohort study of adolescents (13-20y) undergoing eight surgeries commonly associated with an opioid prescription. Participants completed a preoperative survey measuring clinical, mental health, and sociodemographic factors, and postoperative surveys at 30- and 90-days. All surveys administered the Sleep Problems Questionnaire. Repeated measures logistic regression evaluated the impact of surgery on worsening postoperative sleep scores. Linear change model evaluated sleep score trajectories; Poisson regression identified the impact of preoperative disordered sleep on opioid use. ResultsOverall, 167 adolescents (median 15y, 64% female) were included. Twenty-seven (16.2%) reported disordered sleep preoperatively and 41 (24.6%) postoperatively. Prescription opioid use was not associated with development of disordered sleep postoperatively (OR:1.33; 95% CI:0.38–4.68). Adolescents were 2.20 (95% CI:1.42–3.40) times more likely to report disordered sleep postoperatively. Preoperative disordered sleep, time after surgery, and mental health comorbidities were associated with worsening postoperative sleep score trajectories (p < 0.01). Adolescents with preoperative disordered sleep were not more likely to use opioids (OR:2.56, 95% CI:0.76–8.63, p = 0.13) nor did they use more pills (IRR:0.84, 95% CI:0.62–1.15, p = 0.27). ConclusionsAdolescents were more likely to report disordered sleep postoperatively. Preoperative disordered sleep and mental health comorbidities, but not prescription opioid use, were associated with worsening sleep after surgery. Future efforts to improve adolescent postoperative sleep should address baseline disordered sleep and mental health comorbidities. Level of EvidenceLevel II. Type of StudyProspective cohort study.

종단자료를 활용한 초등학생의 핵심역량 성장궤적 및 경상남도교육청의 혁신교육 정책 효과성 분석

This study attempted to analyze the growth of core competencies of elementary school students in Gyeongnam and verify the effectiveness of Gyeongnam Innovation Education Policies that affect them by using short-term three-year longitudinal data from the Gyeongnam Education Longitudinal Study. The research questions are as follows. First, what is the growth Track of core competencies of elementary school students? Second, does the Gyeongnam Innovation Education Policy (class innovation and school democracy) affect the growth of core competencies of elementary school students? For the study, panel data of elementary school students who responded to the first to third surveys of the Gyeongnam Education Longitudinal Study were used. Data from 3,413 students who responded to all three-year surveys were used. The conclusion of the study is as follows. First, as a result of comparing the average value of core competencies of elementary school students, an increase, decrease, or decrease after increase pattern was found. Second, as a result of the potential growth model for core competencies, the linear change model was found to be more suitable than the non-change model. In addition, as a result of putting demographic and sociological variables such as gender, region, and school division into the linear change model, it was found that it had an effect on the initial value and rate of change of core competencies. Third, it was found that both class innovation and school democracy variables invested to analyze the effectiveness of innovative education policies affect the core competencies of elementary school students. In addition, the innovative education policy set up for research analysis was not a one-way structure that affects core competencies, but a mutually compatible structure.

Students’ Motivation in an Online and a Face-To-Face Semester

Abstract: Challenges for university students were high during distance education in lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-regulation and motivation became more important, but motivation was possibly challenged more. To investigate motivational differences and possible positive effects of evidence-based learning activities, we followed two cohorts of preservice teachers over the course of one semester: One cohort was followed in 2019 in a face-to-face semester ( N2019 = 225), and another cohort was followed 1 year later during the first lockdown ( N2020 = 311). Students indicated their motivation at five measurement occasions and reported their use of learning activities twice. Multigroup linear change models indicated an overall decline of motivation in both cohorts. Surprisingly, neither initial motivation level nor motivational change differed between cohorts. Students who used more learning activities reported a more positive motivational development. This highlights the chance of evidence-based learning activities for students’ motivation in regular and distance education.

A Perturbed Peace: Applying Complexity Theory to UN Peacekeeping

ABSTRACT This article explores the application of complexity theory to UN peacekeeping. To date, peacekeeping has been dominated by linear models of change, assuming that conflict settings can be addressed by elite-driven peace processes, gradual improvements to state institutional capacity, and development programming. However, this article argues that complexity theory offers a far more accurate and useful lens through which to view the work of peacekeeping: conflict settings represent complex, interdependent socio-political systems with emergent qualities giving them the capacity to self-organize via feedback loops and other adaptive activity. Self-organization means such systems are highly resistant to attempts to change behaviour via top-down or input-output approaches. In fact, peacekeeping itself is endogenous to the systems it is trying to change, often displaying the same kinds of self-organization typical of complex systems elsewhere. Drawing on experience working and conducting fieldwork in the UN peacekeping mission in Democratic Republic of the Congo, this article argues that UN peacekeeping operations should view themselves as actors within the complex conflict ecosystem, looking to enable transformational change from within, rather than impose liberal Western models from without.

Trajectories of attitude toward own aging and subjective age from 2008 to 2020 among middle-aged and older adults: Partial evidence of a "COVID-19 effect".

As older adults have frequently been portrayed as one homogeneous and vulnerable risk group in public debates and in the media immediately after the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, a general shift toward less favorable attitude toward own aging (ATOA) might have resulted. In contrast, individuals may feel younger than before the pandemic, reflecting a psychological mechanism to avoid identifying themselves with the old age "risk group." We investigate 12-year trajectories of ATOA and subjective age among middle-aged and older German adults based on assessments between 2008 and Summer 2020 (N = 7,730; age in 2008: 40-93 years, M = 62.41). Based on longitudinal multilevel regression models, we found that for ATOA, a model including a potentially "pandemic-driven" change component between 2017 and 2020 in addition to an overall linear change between 2008 and 2020 revealed a better fit than a linear change model without that additional change component. Mean-level decline in ATOA between 2017 and 2020 was five times steeper in such a model than in a linear change model that did not include an additional 2017-2020 change component. The extent of intraindividual ATOA change between 2017 and 2020 varied interindividually, but for more than 99% of the sample, particularly among those with poorer self-rated health, ATOA became less favorable. There was very limited evidence for a pandemic-specific change in subjective age. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the early phase of the pandemic might have caused a change toward less favorable ATOA, whereas it did not affect subjective age. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Overweight/obesity among 15- to 24-year-old women in Ghana: 21-year trend, future projections and socio-demographic correlates.

Although developing countries are experiencing some of the fastest rises in the prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, little is known about the pace of the problem among young people in transition from adolescence to adulthood. This study examined the trend and associated socio-demographic predictors of overweight/obesity (BMI ≥25kg/m2) from 1993 to 2014 among women aged 15-24 years in Ghana and projected the future prevalence from 2019 to 2040. Descriptive statistics, the arithmetic linear change model, and binary logistic regression were applied to data on women aged 15-24 years from five nationally representative Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 1993 (N=488), 1998 (N=517), 2003 (N=1832), 2008 (N=1693) and 2014 (N=1491). Overall, overweight/obesity among women aged 15-24 years almost tripled between the 1993 (6.8%; 95% CI=4.9-9.3) and 2014 (19.5%; 95% CI=17.3-21.2) surveys. Based on the arithmetic linear change model, overweight/obesity is projected to increase linearly to over 35% among the 15-24 year cohort of women by 2040. Age, educational level, wealth status, occupation, type of locality, ethnicity, frequency of viewing TV per week, parity and contraceptive use were found to be significant predictors of overweight/obesity among this sub-group of women. The trend of overweight/obesity demonstrated in this group of women could potentially provide momentum for further increases in the prevalence of overweight/obesity and associated health outcomes in the coming years in Ghana. This underscores the need for urgent national-level public health intervention efforts to curtail the problem.

정책사상의 이론적 기초로서 인간의 이해

정책(학)의 본질에 관한 철학적 사고를 정책이론으로 체계화하는 정책사상에서 인간의 이해는 아직까지 초보적인 수준이다. 따라서 비교적 짧은 정책학의 학문적 역사뿐만 아니라 행태과학 중심의 정책학이 발전되면서 정책사상과 그의 기초이론인 인간의 이해 등이 소홀히 취급된 것은 사실이다. 그러나 21세기에 오면서 정책사상에서 인간을 설명하는 연구들이 진행되기 시작했다. 이와 같은 하나의 연구로서 본 논문은 정책사상에서 인간을 정책인으로 이해하기 위해서 우선적으로 인간을 개념적으로 정의한 것부터 검토해 보았다. 그리고 인간을 이해하는 대표적인 인류학적 인간학에서 인간을 생물학적 인간과 철학적 인간으로 구분해서 설명하는 것을 비판적 입장에서 정리하였다. 마지막으로 인간과 비인간과의 상호관계에서 설명하는 인간의 이해의 논쟁도 찾아보았다. 이에 따라서 정책사상에서 정책인의 존재는 정책세계에서 중심자의 역할을 하면서 정책의 세계를 독점적으로 지배하고 운영하는 인간이지만, 만물의 영장으로서 사물을 착취하거나 지배하는 인간이 아니라 정책의 주재자로서 독점적으로 정책을 결정하고 실천하는 인간이라고 가정해 보았다. 동시에 독점적으로 정책을 지배하고 관리할 수 있는 수월적 정책능력을 소유하면서 정책대상자나 사물의 존재의 가치를 높이기 위해서 그들의 결정과 판단에 개입하고 간섭하는 정책인으로 그의 존재를 이해해 보았다.

The temporal evolution of a far-right forum

The increased threat of right-wing extremist violence necessitates a better understanding of online extremism. Radical message boards, small-scale social media platforms, and other internet fringes have been reported to fuel hatred. The current paper examines data from the right-wing forum Stormfront between 2001 and 2015. We specifically aim to understand the development of user activity and the use of extremist language. Various time-series models depict posting frequency and the prevalence and intensity of extremist language. Individual user analyses examine whether some super users dominate the forum. The results suggest that structural break models capture the forum evolution better than stationary or linear change models. We observed an increase of forum engagement followed by a decrease towards the end of the time range. However, the proportion of extremist language on the forum increased in a step-wise matter until the early summer of 2011, followed by a decrease. This temporal development suggests that forum rhetoric did not necessarily become more extreme over time. Individual user analysis revealed that super forum users accounted for the vast majority of posts and of extremist language. These users differed from normal users in their evolution of forum engagement.

Newly Discovered Period Changes in Two mCP Stars and Updates for Previously Published Stars

We have discovered period decreases for the mCP Si stars 13 And and V913 Sco from analyzing Strömgren uvby observations obtained with the Four College Automated Photometric Telescope at the Fairborn Observatory (FCAPT). We also have incorporated previously unpublished FCAPT data in further analyses of V901 Ori, CS Vir, and EE Dra for which other investigators have reported period changes. We confirm the results for V901 Ori but find no evidence for period change in CS Vir or EE Dra. It is impossible to distinguish between discrete period change models and linear change models for these stars from the available data; this also applies to CU Vir. We discuss some possible causes of this behavior.

Because coconuts do not grow in Canberra: Complexity theory and capacity development in Solomon Islands Police Force

SummaryStatebuilding has been informed and captured by reductionist, linear change models. Defined by technocratic approaches to public sector (re)building and reform—it has been monitored, measured and evaluated by New Public Management artefacts such as log‐frames and Results‐Based Management. Through a case study on the capacity development of the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force, I explore the possibilities for using complexity theory to better understand, manage, and monitor capacity development interventions. The analysis of interview data with police practitioners from both sides of the intervention—advisors and local counterparts—reveals the explanatory power of complexity concepts (such as interconnectedness, emergence, initial conditions, and non‐linear change) in ways that could inform a rethink of how we frame public sector capacity building interventions.

There Is Light and There Is Darkness: On the Temporal Dynamics of Cohesion, Coordination, and Performance in Business Teams.

This study examines teams as complex adaptive systems (tCAS) and uses latent growth curve modeling to test team cohesion as an initial condition conducive to team performance over time and the mediational effect of team coordination on this relationship. After analyzing 158 teams enrolled in a business game simulation over five consecutive weeks, we found that change in team coordination was best described by a continuous linear change model, while change in team performance was best described by a continuous nonlinear change model; and the mediation latent growth curve model revealed a negative indirect effect of team cohesion on the level of change in team performance over time, through the level of change in team coordination. This study contributes to the science of teams by combining the notions of initial conditions with co-evolving team dynamics, hence creating a more refined temporal approach to understanding team functioning.

Learner instruction, attitudes during class and academic achievement of junior high school students in Korea: a panel analysis

This study examined changes in the structural relationship among learner-centred classes perceived by Korean junior high school students, attitudes during class and academic achievement. A linear change model was identified as optimal, showing a steady increase over time for each parameter. The higher the initial value for learner-centred classes, the higher both the initial value and rate of change was for attitudes during class and academic achievement. The initial values for attitudes during class also had a significant effect on initial values of academic achievement, suggesting that attitudes are important in increasing academic achievement. The rate of change of both learner-centred classes and attitudes during class significantly influenced the rate of change of academic achievement.

They are all lies. Even Mother Theresa did it for herself ...

In this paper we explore the question of what are we trying to achieve in teaching business ethics at undergraduate university level. The dominant normative model of business ethics suggests that the aim of business ethics (including the teaching of business ethics) is to move businesspeople from an egotistic position to an altruistic position. According to the latter position, the greater good of society is served by unselfish, other-regarding action, instead of by the narrow, self-centred interests of individuals or corporations acting on their own behalf (i.e. egoism). In this paper, the dominant model is analysed and criticised by means of subjecting it to the question of whether it is at all possible to move people from one position to another through teaching business ethics. A second, related aim of this analysis and critique deals with the question of whether ethics (as taking up moral responsibility for one’s actions) really entails a neat, linear model of change from position A to B. To arrive at a possible alternative model of teaching and “doing” business ethics, we explore some classic philosophical positions in which mixed signals are given regarding the status of egoism in ethics. This analysis will be applied to, and supported by, experience gained from teaching business ethics to accounting and management students at undergraduate level at the University of Stellenbosch.

Rethinking the Twentieth-Century History of Mumbai

AbstractThis review examines three major books on the history of Bombay. Historians of the city have tended to focus primarily on the period before 1930; this tendency has seriously limited our understanding of the dramatic transformations that have taken place in Bombay over the course of the twentieth century. Each of the studies reviewed here devotes considerable attention to developments since the 1920s. Collectively these works make a significant contribution to the appreciation of such matters as working-class politics, the changing character of workers’ neighbourhoods, land use, urban planning, and the ways the city has been imagined and experienced by its citizens. At the same time, these works all shift their analytic frameworks as they approach more contemporary periods and this restricts the authors' ability to assess fully the character of urban change. This paper calls upon historians to continue to apply the tools of social history, particularly its reliance on close microcosmic studies of particular places and groups over long periods of time, as they try to bridge the gap between the early twentieth century and the later twentieth century. At the same time, it suggests that historians need to consider Gyan Prakash's view of cities as ‘patched-up societies’ whose entirety cannot be understood through single, linear models of change.

The coaching ripple effect: The effects of developmental coaching on wellbeing across organisational networks

It has been argued that the quality of daily interactions within organisations effects the wellbeing of both individuals and the broader organisation. Coaching for leadership development is one intervention often used to create organisation-wide changes in culture and wellbeing. Leadership style has been associated with employee stress and wellbeing. Coaching has also been shown to improve individual level measures of wellbeing. However, almost all the research into the effectiveness of coaching interventions assumes a linear model of change, and expects that any flow-on effects are also linear. In other words, much of the research assumed that any change in the leader has relatively uniform effects on the wellbeing of others, and that these effects can be adequately accessed via standard linear statistical analyses. We argue that linear approaches do not take the complexity of organisations seriously, and that Complex Adaptive Systems theory (CAS) provides a useful non-linear approach to thinking about organisational change and the wellbeing of individuals embedded in these systems. The relatively new methodology of Social Network Analysis (SNA) provides researchers with analytic tools designed to access the relational components of complex systems. This paper reports on changes observed in the relational networks of an organisation following a leadership coaching intervention. An AB design coaching intervention study was conducted across an organisation (N = 225). Wellbeing measures were taken for all employees and a social network analysis was conducted on the degree and quality of all organisational interactions. Twenty leaders (n = 20) received 8 coaching sessions. Individual self report measures of goal attainment as well as 360 feedbacks on transformational leadership were assessed in the control, pre and post intervention periods. A significant increase in the goal attainment, transformational leadership and psychological wellbeing measures were observed for those who received coaching. Average change in the perceived quality of interaction improved for those who received coaching. However there was a decline in the perceived quality of the interaction others believed they were having with those who were coached. It was also found that the closer any member of the network was identified as being connected to those who received coaching, the more likely they were to experience positive increases in wellbeing. This research highlights the influence of leadership coaching beyond the individual leader, and has important implications for organisational wellbeing initiatives and how we measure the impact of interventions aimed at organisational change. Our findings suggest a more nuanced approach is needed in designing interventions in complex adaptive systems.

Social Class and Work Functioning in Treatment for Depression

Social Class and Work Functioning in Treatment for Depression

Modelling change in adolescent smoking behaviour: Stability of predictors across analytic models

The current paper examined the variability of predictors of changes in adolescent smoking across linear and nonlinear analytic models. Three analytic models typically used to model adolescent smoking behaviour were tested: one linear model of change (standard linear), one static linear model (pre-post linear) and one nonlinear model of change (cusp catastrophe). Variability in model composition was assessed by examining the pattern of variables achieving statistical significance and proportion of variance explained. Model testing was conducted on data from Australian adolescents successfully tracked through a 12-month longitudinal study of smoking (N = 779). The survey measured demographics, self-reported smoking, smoking among friends and family, self-esteem, neuroticism, coping, stress and risk taking. The results indicated that while predictors of change were invariant across analytic models explanatory power varied markedly. Models of change in smoking that included simple, interacted or polynomial forms of initial conditions (past behaviour) explained more than four times the variance of models without. These results justified confidence in the predictors of change in adolescent smoking across analytic models. A secondary implication was that more research into past behaviour's role in the context of dynamical models of adolescent smoking and other health behaviour is needed.

Rethinking cities in the Middle East: political economy, planning, and the lived space

Urbanisation is an economic, political, and socio-cultural complexity, and so is its interaction with cityscapes. However, this truism rarely finds an expression in academic research. It is obvious that economic transitions would determine the quality and volume of the built environment. Municipal and state decision making further shape the nature of urban spaces, and socio-cultural transformations influence perceived notions of the lived space and, in turn, reshape the physical landscape itself. Nevertheless, research on cities in the Middle East and elsewhere remains fairly limited in scope, with little cross-discipline ‘conversation’ among scholars in different fields which attempts to account for such complexity. This is all the more surprising as life in cities has become, over the past half century or so, the most significant form of human collective dwelling; in the Middle East over half the population currently lives in urban settings and the numbers are forecast to grow in the future.1 This review article is the result of a dialogue between an architect and an economic historian in response to the foregoing. We have united in an attempt to offer a more integrative approach to Middle East urbanism, accounting for the interactions of the political economy of this region, planning, and the lived space. The key questions on which we focus are why and how do state transformation and economic structural change impact upon urban space. In seeking the answers we examine the long-term trajectory of cities as they went through the first period of globalisation under imperial intervention and/or direct colonial rule; gradually came under independent, inward-looking, national regimes; and presently experience the second wave of globalisation and the opening of local economies to international markets. Such a narrative explores common themes in the historical trajectories of cities' lives. Our long-term, geographically extensive overview (Map 1) is bound to miss some specific developments that have made a significant impact on the transformations of cities in the region; our aim is not to totalise Middle East experiences and reduce a variety of narratives to a simplistic linear model of change. Even more so, our study of the Middle East is mostly focused on Egypt, the Asian Arab countries (the mashraq), Israel/Palestine, and Turkey, the geographical unit which roughly corresponded with the Ottoman Empire, the last state to control the Middle East before the age of nations. We acknowledge that any bird's eye view perspective is bound to do some injustice to historically specific contexts, and city transitions that occurred in such contexts. We would welcome any future work that brings our suggestion here, namely to integrate political economy with the study of urban development and city life, to bear on more specific research on urbanism in the Middle East.