Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models Research Articles

EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

<p>Exchange rate fluctuation is one of the critical determinants of domestic investment in Ghana. Though exchange rate fluctuations can have an asymmetric effect on domestic investment, other studies assumed a symmetric relationship between these variables. Using annual data from the period of 1980-2017, the Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL) was used to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric effect of exchange rate fluctuation on domestic investment by creating two new variables to substitute exchange rate fluctuations (appreciation and depreciation variables). From the first objective, fluctuation in the rate exchange was found to harm domestic investment. The second objective confirmed the asymmetric effect of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic investment. Income had a positive effect on domestic investment which affirms the assertion of the accelerator theory of investment. The other explanatory variables included in the study, foreign direct investment and interest rate differential were found to be detrimental to domestic investment while domestic credit to the private sector had a positive effect on domestic investment. The study recommends that the Bank of Ghana should put in place long-lasting, effective, and efficient measures to stabilise the exchange rate.</p><p><strong>JEL:</strong> F31, F41, E22, E44, E51, E52, E58</p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/soc/0757/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Does external debt drive inflation in Sudan: evidence from symmetric and asymmetric ARDL approaches

PurposeThis study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants.Design/methodology/approachThe authors utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics.FindingsThe linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation.Practical implicationsThe reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan.Originality/valueTo date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Exploring the asymmetric effect of remittance inflows on gold import demand: Evidence from a large gold-consuming and remittance-receiving country

The focus of this research is to look at how remittance inflows affect gold imports in India for the period from 1980 to 2020. The study uses both the linear (symmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the non-linear (asymmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2014) to assess the symmetric and asymmetric impact of remittance inflows on gold imports. The key advantage of the NARDL model relies on its ability to simultaneously capture the short run and long run asymmetries through the positive and negative partial sum decompositions of changes in the independent variable(s). The results of linear ARDL model reveal that remittance inflows positively and significantly affect the gold imports in the long run, although negatively and significantly in the short run. The findings of NARDL model, on the other hand, show that there is significant asymmetric impact of remittance inflows upon the gold imports over the study period. The results confirm that whereas an increase in remittance inflows leads to a considerable increase in gold imports, a reduction in remittance inflows has no substantial impact in the long run. Another notable outcome is that, while a decline in gold prices boosts gold imports in the short run, both an increase and a decrease in gold prices enhance gold imports in the long run. Concerning the results of our study, it is suggested that more efficient channelization of remittance revenues and adoption of non-price measures may be deemed effective to curb the gold imports, which can contribute to reduce unfavourable trade balance.

Linear and nonlinear asymmetric relationship in crude oil, gold, stock market and exchange rates: An evidence from the UAE

This study examines dynamic relationship among the macroeconomic variables represented by the international oil and gold prices, exchange rates and stock market index in the context of UAE's economy. The UAE is known as a major player in trading both oil and gold in the global market. Daily data for the period ranging from 19th March 2015 to 8th October 2022 is used for this study. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied in both linear and non-linear specifications to explore co-movement among the variables under study. While the estimated parameters from linear ARDL model indicate the absence of any co-integration among gold, oil and stock market, the non-linear ARDL model however, does indicate and validate the presence of long-run asymmetric relation among these markets. Exchange rates play a significant role both in the short as well as in the long run. Besides, the study observes that negative shocks do have different scale of impact than the positive ones. Therefore, the present study concludes that a non-linear approach is best suited to understand the dynamics of these markets. The findings of this study have important implications for policy makers and other stakeholders as they must ensure that the direction of shocks is taken into consideration before policy prescriptions or any other investment decisions.

Outward foreign direct investment and the economic growth of Central, East and Southeast Europe: an asymmetric approach

PurposePrevious studies have mostly estimated there to be a symmetric effect in the Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow regarding the economic growth of Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries. However, for the CESEE countries, as well as for the majority of countries around the world, there has been no study that has estimated the symmetric and asymmetric effect of outward FDI on economic growth. The main objective of this study is to estimate whether the relation between outward FDI and economic growth in CESEE countries is symmetric or asymmetric.Design/methodology/approachThis study includes a sample based on eight CESEE countries. The authors used the linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and annual data for the period from 1990 to 2020.FindingsIn the long run, in the linear ARDL model, a significant symmetrical effect due to OFDI on the economic growth of Romania and Slovenia was found, while in the non-linear ARDL model, a significant asymmetric effect of OFDI on the economic growth of Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovenia and Slovakia was found. In six out of the eight countries, asymmetry was found while symmetry was found in the other two. Poorer symmetry results can be ascribed to the lack of linear model neglecting the asymmetric behaviour of the positive and negative change decomposition as part of the OFDI movement, which leads to the wrong conclusion.Originality/valueThis is the first study to evaluate the asymmetric effect of outward FDI on the economic growth of eight CESEE countries.

The impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance: Evidence from Saudi Arabia vs her major trading partners

This study aims to analyse the short- and long-term effects of real exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balance between Saudi Arabia and its major trading partners. The study used the aggregated and disaggregated panel data for the analysis. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in error correction is used to analyse the short and long-term relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. It was discovered that the real exchange rate (RER) had no appreciable impact on the trade balance over the long run using the panel data linear ARDL model. The first leg of RER is determined to have a very negative short-term impact on the trade balance. However, the non-linear ARDL model, which took into account non-linear trade balance adjustments in reaction to exchange rate fluctuations, demonstrated a significant and adverse long-term link between the two variables. It shows that depreciation leads to the deterioration of the trade balance. Finally, the study extends the analysis to disaggregated data country-wise. The results of the linear ARDL model revealed that 3 out of 13 cases have significantly short-term relationships. Still, it is observed that no specific short-term patterns are in line with the J-curve hypothesis. The investigation discovered evidence for the J-Curve and the new definition of the J-curve using the non-linear ARDL model in three of the 13 cases. The study concluded that Saudi Arabia must not rely on devaluation as a policy instrument to improve its trade balance. It should maintain its fixed exchange rate for extended periods.

The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models

This study investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Lebanon over the period 2001 to 2019 by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model introduced by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Shin et al. (2014) respectively in order to examine simultaneously the short- and long-run symmetric and possible asymmetric interactions between fiscal and monetary tools in Lebanon. The fiscal and monetary rules employed in this study are inspired from Leeper (1991, 2016 and 2018). Based on NARDL and ARDL fiscal and monetary reaction functions, Lebanese fiscal authority acts independently indicating a fiscal dominance. This situation obliged the BDL to neglect its main goal of maintaining price stability in order to support fiscal deficit by creating seigniorage revenue to balance the government accounts which in turns has led to an acceleration of inflation rates even in case of monetary contraction. The fiscal responsiveness to changes in public debt is extremely weak in Lebanon, and even is negative, and this is due to the high levels of public debt (174.3% of GDP in 2019). The empirical results indicate also that while the linear approach provides evidences of the interaction between the fiscal and monetary policies, the nonlinear approach provides more important evidences to determine in which direction this cooperation or conflict occurs between policy mix. Moreover, this paper provides new evidences of the absence of fiscal and monetary discipline rules followed by the fiscal and monetary authorities, which indicates that the policymakers in Lebanon were managing the financial and monetary policies without any specific plan or program and without any future vision or even a framework that allows these policies to be evaluated.

Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand for money in Algeria

This paper investigates the symmetric and asymmetric effects of real oil prices on real money demand in Algeria over the period 1999:Q1–2020:Q1. Using a linear autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL), we find no evidence of a long-term relationship among the variables. Interestingly, we reveal that the NARDL model provides strong evidence of a stable money demand. Moreover, the evidence shows that, in the short-term, only real oil price reductions will result in a decrease in real money demand. In the long-term, our findings suggest that oil price increases (decreases) will lead to higher (lower) money demand. Additionally, we find that negative oil price shocks will yield a stronger effect on money demand compared to positive shocks. These results indicate that money demand is a channel through which oil price shocks may affect the macroeconomic activity in Algeria. Therefore, Algerian policymakers should incorporate this asymmetric relationship between oil prices and money demand in designing their monetary policies.

Asymmetric Impact of Corporate Tax on Stock Market Development: Evidence from The Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

The stock market and tax policy are widely considered as two core factors for economic growth in any country. A well-developed and functioning stock market provides information on profit-making of successful investment projects, risk diversification, and efficient resource allocation. In addition to domestic resources, the stock market is also considered a crucial part of the global economy. In recent years most OECD countries, including the United States, have substantially reduced their corporate tax rates to stimulate investments, attract foreign capital, and achieve higher economic growth. Corporate tax cuts in a country are expected to positively affect stock market development by encouraging domestic investments and allowing for profit repatriation by multinational companies and foreign firms which will effectively lead to higher stock market development. Despite an extensive literature examining effects of tax policy and the stock market on economic growth, only a few studies have investigated the relationship between corporate tax rate and stock market development, and these studies have shown mixed results. This study investigates the link between corporate tax and stock market development for a group of nine selected OECD countries for the period of 1980-2018 using both long-run and short-run models. In addition to the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modeling using the linear ARDL model, we employ the Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) nonlinear cointegration approach to investigate the asymmetric impact of corporate tax changes on stock market development. Our findings indicate that, in the linear model in most of countries in this sample, corporate taxing adversely affects stock market development both in the short run and in the long run. In addition, as the first study using the N-ARDL estimation method to investigate this relationship, the robust and strong statistical results show that the effect of corporate tax on stock market development as a major part of financial market development is asymmetric. We show that corporate tax policies in the short run have a nonlinear, asymmetric impact on stock market development. The magnitude of the impact depends on whether the tax policy is a decrease or an increase in corporate tax. Furthermore, this effect changes among the countries in our study. For instance, the stock market's reaction to an increase of corporate taxing in the United States is much more rapid than that of decreases of corporate taxing. Corporate tax increases immediately and strongly affect the stock market, but the stock market takes years to incorporate the effect of tax decreases.

Education, Human Capital, and Endogenous Growth Nexus: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan

The concept of endogenous growth states that economic growth is caused by variables within the economy rather than external ones. This study's major goal is to demonstrate the link between education, human capital, and endogenous growth in Pakistan. For the period 1990–2021, time series data is used. The stationary is confirmed using the augmented dickey fuller (ADF) method. In this research, the non linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) technique is employed for the empirical analysis. Gross domestic product (GDP), education enrolment, human capital, inflation, trade, and gross fixed capital formation are the factors examined in this study. In the current research, gross domestic product, education enrollment, and human capital are dependent variables, while inflation, trade, gross fixed capital formation and education enrollment are independent variables. Inflation shows an inverse relationship with the gross domestic product, while trade and education enrollment show a positive relationship with the gross domestic product. Gross fixed capital formation shows an inverse relationship with human capital, while education enrollment and inflation also show a negative relationship with human capital. Gross fixed capital formation and trade show a positive impact on education enrollment, while inflation shows a negative impact on education enrollment. It is recommended that the government should decrease inflation to increase gross domestic product (GDP). This study suggests that education enrollment (EDUENROLL), trade (TRADE), and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) also increase.

Improving Australia's trade balance: A case study of agro‐forest and fish products

AbstractThe impact of the exchange rate (ER) on the trade balance (TB) has been discussed for many years. However, the issue has not been discussed in sufficient depth, especially in relation to the TB of agricultural products. This paper will gauge this impact on Australia, which has much potential for agro‐based trade in the world market. We have applied the Bahmani‐Oskooee and Hosny's approach of the linear autoregressive distributed lag model to estimate the Marshall–Lerner condition (MLC) regarding the trade of Australian agro‐forest and fish (AFF) products with its five major partner countries. Quarterly data will be used for the period 1988Q1–2020Q4. Our findings support the MLC in case of the major share of Australian AFF trade. The implication is that if the market force depreciates Australian ER, the country's AFF TB will improve in the long‐run.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Impacts of Commercial Energy Distribution from Key Sources on Economic Progress in Pakistan

This paper aims to determine the interaction of commercial energy distribution, including the installed capacity of hydroelectric energy, hydroelectric energy generation, the installed capacity of thermal energy, thermal energy generation, the installed capacity of nuclear energy, and nuclear energy generation, with economic progress in Pakistan over the 1970–2019 period. Both linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models were used to ascertain the symmetric and asymmetric short- and long-run effects. The findings from the linear autoregressive distributed lag model analysis revealed evidence that increases in the installed capacity of nuclear energy, alongside higher levels of hydroelectric energy generation and thermal energy generation, have positively affected economic growth in the short run, while a greater installed capacity of nuclear energy has positively affected economic growth in the long run. The findings from the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model analysis showed that negative shocks to installed capacities related to hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear energy reduced economic growth, while positive shocks to hydroelectric energy generation and the installed capacity of nuclear energy boosted economic growth in the short run. Furthermore, in the long run, negative shocks to the installed capacities of hydroelectric and thermal energy reduced economic growth, negative shocks to the installed capacity of nuclear energy enhanced economic growth, and positive shocks to hydroelectric energy generation and the installed capacity of nuclear energy have stimulated economic growth in Pakistan.

Stress tests in Hungarian banking after 2008

Abstract The 2008 crisis highlighted the importance of using stress tests in banking practice. The role of these stress tests is to identify and precisely estimate the effect of possible future changes in market conditions on capital adequacy and profitability. This paper seeks to show a possible methodology to calculate the stressed point-in-time probability of default (PD) parameter. The presented approach contains a linear autoregressive distributed lag model to determine the connection between the logit of default rates and the relevant macroeconomic factors, and uses migration matrices to calculate PDs from the forecasted default rates. The authors illustrate the applications of this methodology using the Hungarian real credit portfolio data.

Does foreign direct investment asymmetrically affect the mitigation of environmental degradation in Malaysia?

In this modern era, the global warming issue has been on the front burner of almost all countries including Malaysia. This study utilizing time series data spanning from 1970 to 2018. To this end, a linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model was conducted to reveal the foreign direct investment-growth-environment nexus. The conclusion validates the existence of the pollution haven hypothesis in Malaysia. Specifically, the empirical results of the linear autoregressive distributed lag model indicate that foreign direct investment and real gross domestic product have a significant positive impact on CO2 emission while carbon damage cost and the interaction term of foreign direct investment and carbon damage cost have a negative impact in the long run and short run. To find the asymmetric behavior of the foreign direct investment our study employed a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. The findings confirmed the asymmetry association of foreign direct investment with CO2 emission. Interestingly, our results of the interaction term in both models are significant with a negative sign that shows the mediating effect of carbon damage cost that converts the positive effect of foreign direct investment on CO2 emission to negative. Thus, it is vital to reinforce the use of significant regulation as the Malaysian economy opens up to attract more foreign direct investment.

Nonlinearities and asymmetric adjustment to PPP in an exchange rate model with inflation expectations

PurposeThis paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January 1993–July 2019.Design/methodology/approachBoth a benchmark linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) specification are considered.FindingsThe results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long and short run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the purchasing power parity (PPP) implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones.Originality/valueThe focus on linearities and the estimation of a NARDL model, which is shown to outperform the linear ARDL model both within sample and out of sample, is an important contribution to the existing literature which has rarely applied this type of framework; the choice of an appropriate econometric method also makes the policy implications of the analysis more reliable; in particular, monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively; the inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.

Are exports and imports of India’s trading partners cointegrated? Evidence from Fourier bootstrap ARDL procedure

The paper assesses the long-run relationship between India’s exports and imports with its 21 major trading partners using bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag bounds test procedure with a Fourier function. The study uses monthly data for the period 2014 (Month 01) to 2020 (Month 02). The empirical results show cointegration for 6 countries if imports are used as the dependent variable but not when exports are used as a dependent variable. However, for the remaining countries, no cointegration between exports and imports was found. This indicates that India’s efforts to reduce its bilateral imbalances through trade policies with these countries may not be appropriately targeted. Having established a long-run relationship, the study estimates a disaggregated bilateral import demand function by employing a linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the asymmetric impact of the relative price changes on the import demand of India with her trading partners. Marshall–Lerner condition is satisfied for India’s trade with Kuwait and Germany in case of linear autoregressive distributed lag model and with Qatar, Kuwait and Germany in case of nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Cumulative asymmetries are established for Indo-Kuwait trade.

A Step towards enhancement of Macroeconomic Performance of Pakistan: Do Oil Price, Public Expenditures and Financial Development Matter?

Oil price fluctuations have vital importance in macroeconomic performance. Our study demonstrates the impact of oil price fluctuations on the trade balance and economic growth in Pakistan. We employ a linear autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) for the period 1970-2018. The results showed that oil price negatively affected the total trade balance in Pakistan other control variables like the real effective exchange rate, real GDP (Home country) and financial development also negatively affected. While real GDP (Foreign country) influenced trade balance positively. In the second model, the results showed that oil price negatively affected economic growth in Pakistan and other control variables like government expenditure, financial development and gross capital formation are positively affected. The study results are useful for policymakers and government officials for making the policies regarding long-run economic growth as well as trade balance improvement.

The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the U.S

This paper employs the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2013) to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the unemployment rates of Canada and the U.S. Asymmetries are introduced via positive and negative partial sum decompositions of oil price. Cointegration tests confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between real input prices (oil price and interest rate) and the unemployment rates. The linear ARDL model suggests that, although oil price changes have no or minor short-run effect on the unemployment rates, they have a significant and positive long-run effect in all the cases. The NARDL model gives a different picture for the effect of oil price changes on the unemployment rates. While only falling oil prices have a significant short-run effect on the unemployment rates, rising and falling oil prices have a significant and positive long-run effect in all the cases. The results suggest significant evidence of asymmetries both in the short-run and long-run with falling oil prices having a larger impact than rising prices.

The Effect of Inflation Rates on Stock Market Returns in Sudan: The Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

This study investigates the effect of the inflation rate in Sudan on stock returns on the Khartoum Stock Exchange. The linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to monthly data over the period from September 2003 to December 2019, with the exchange and money supply growth rates, and Murabaha profit margin as control variables. As no previous studies have studied the effect of inflation on stock returns by means of the ARDL approach, this study intends to fill this gap in the current body of literature. The results show that the inflation rate exerts a significantly negative effect on stock returns in both the short and long term, which is crucial to the understanding of all, but especially developing, economies, such as Sudan. First, policymakers must formulate strategies to control inflation and stabilize the stock market; second, any decision-making on short- and long-term investments should take account of these findings.

Re-considering the Fisher equation for South Korea in the application of nonlinear and linear ARDL models

This study aims to approach the Fisher effect issue from a different methodological perspective. To this aim, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied for South Korea between 2000Q4Ƀ2017Q4. This model allows us to decompose one variable (changes in inflation) into two new variables (increases and decreases in inflation) under the manners of nonlinearity and asymmetry. Hence, it enables us to monitor the Fisher effect in terms of increases and decreases separately. We also apply the linear version of the same model since the nonlinear ARDL model is the extended version of linear ARDL model. While the empirical findings of the nonlinear model support asymmetrically partial Fisher effects in the long-run for 1, 3, 5 and 10-years Korean bond rates, the linear model does not. Additionally, the nonlinear model detects lower size partial Fisher effects when the maturity of interest rates gets longer. Another finding of this study is that the nonlinear model may mathematically identify and introduce a different version of the partial Fisher effect based on singular (separate) effects of each decomposed variable in a parametric manner.