Likelihood Of Retirement Research Articles

Stress and retirement

This paper examines the bidirectional causal relationship between retirement and stress. We use data from the PSID for the period 2007–2015. By employing a simultaneous equations approach, we find that experiencing stress increases the likelihood of retirement by approximately 34.8 percentage points, whereas retirement lowers the probability of feeling stress by 19.6 percentage points. We obtain consistent results when we disaggregate data according to various individual characteristics, including gender, occupation, wealth, and ethnicity. To determine actual retirement age, we use official retirement ages and a proxy of health stock as instruments, while lagged physical activity levels serve as a non-linear instrument for perceived stress. Our findings are particularly relevant in terms of policy, and further research is needed to assess the impact of physical activity on economic and well-being outcomes for older individuals.

Physical functioning as a predictor of retirement: Has its importance changed over a thirty-year period in Sweden?

Many countries, including Sweden, are implementing policies aimed at delaying retirement and encouraging older workers to remain on the labour market for longer. During recent decades, there have been several major reforms to the pension and social security systems in Sweden. Moreover, the nature of occupations has shifted towards more non-manual and sedentary activities, older women are today almost as active in the labour market as men in Sweden, and physical functioning has improved over time. In this study, we investigate whether the importance of physical functioning as a predictor for retirement has changed over time, for women and men, respectively. We used four waves of nationally representative data from The Swedish Level of Living Survey from 1981, 1991, 2000, and 2010, together with income register data. We found that greater severity of musculoskeletal pain and mobility limitations increased the likelihood of retirement in all waves. Results from logistic regression models with average marginal effects and predictive margins showed that there is a trend towards physical functioning becoming less important for retirement towards the end of the study period, especially for women, when controlling for occupational-based social class, age, adverse physical working conditions, and job demands. People, especially women, reporting impaired physical functioning did not retire to the same extent as in previous decades. This indicates that people stayed longer in the labour market despite impaired physical functioning, which may have repercussions on well-being and quality of life.

The Effects of Retirement on Sense of Purpose in Life: Crisis or Opportunity?

Does retirement lead to an existential crisis or present an opportunity to experience a renewed sense of purpose in life? Prior research has documented a negative association between retirement and sense of purpose in life, suggesting that retirement could lead people to feel aimless and lost. We revisited these findings using a quasiexperimental approach and identified the causal impact of retirement on purpose in life. In a nationally representative panel of American adults (N = 8,113), we applied an instrumental-variable analysis to assess how Social Security retirement incentives in the United States drove differences in the likelihood of retirement. Results showed a sizable increase in purpose in life as an outcome of retirement. These improvements were driven by individuals with lower socioeconomic status who retired from dissatisfying jobs. The findings suggest that retirement may provide an opportunity to experience a renewed sense of purpose, especially among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations.

The effect of 31st year pension enhancement on mid- and late-career retirement decisions

ABSTRACT A majority of career teachers in Missouri defined benefit pension plan reach their pension wealth peak before their 31st year of service. The 2002 pension enhancement in Missouri generates a local gain in pension wealth that is lower than the peak and also creates an eligibility milestone at the 31st service year. To test whether the 31st year enhancement affects retirement timing decisions for mid- to late-career teachers, I use administrative data of Missouri teachers and employ difference-in-differences models. I find that the 31st year enhancement reduces the likelihood of retirement at early and full retirement eligibilities, and helps retain experienced teachers.

Gender differences in retirement in Chile and Uruguay

PurposeThis study compares retirement in Chile and Uruguay, and focuses on current individuals legally entitled to retire, particularly women. The article analyses how labour market and family resources shape the access of women and men to social insurance by investigating the likelihood of retirement after reaching the legal age of retirement.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the Longitudinal Social Protection Survey (LSPS), a biannual or triennial longitudinal survey carried out in six Latin American countries. To study gender differences in the chance of being retired, the study conducts a series of logit regression models to model retirement as a function of labour market and life course conditions as well as providing descriptive and contextual information.FindingsMain findings support labour market explanations of gender differences in retirement. Work experience, human capital and contribution densities largely explain the chances of retirement and economic autonomy among elderly women. Further analysis reveal that they are both less likely than men to retire but also to work in old age, limiting their economic autonomy.Research limitations/implicationsData for Uruguay are recent. To maximize comparison between countries, the paper selects the more recent waves with complete administrative information. As a result, the article uses cross-sectional data that might not capture the accumulation of family resources and could fail to provide a complete gendered life course explanation of current disadvantages faced by women.Originality/valueThe article uses novel data in order to place two Latin American countries within mainstream sociological theories of retirement, thus complementing literature that mainly focuses on European and North-American societies. The paper also documents gender gaps in retirement in two different Latin American societies, one with a traditionally generous public pension system (Uruguay) and one with a largely privately-run contributory system (Chile).

WHAT ARE THE PATHWAYS TO RETIREMENT: DO HEALTH AND COHORT MATTER?

Studies about retirement often neglect ethnic identity. Yet, racial and ethnic inequality plays an important role in retirement decisions. For instance, minorities are less likely to continue working in old age beyond the normal retirement age because of some individual factors such as poor or fair health, cognitive impairment, functional limitation (Green, 2005; Ghilarducci & Moore, 2015; Mudrazija, 2010), physical limitations (Radl, 2014; Solem et al., 2016; Pienta & Hayward, 2002), retirement benefit and eligibility of pension (Radl, 2014; Honig, 1996). This research examined the influence of ethnicity on whether working for people aged above 60 in Taiwan. In addition to testing the pathways to retirement, we scrutinized how occupational sector mediates the likelihood of ethnic effect on retirement. After comparing two cohorts from the dataset “Taiwan Longitudinal Study in Aging”, we found that working in public sector, white-collar workers, being a Mainlander, being non-married, higher education, self-reported bad health and functional limitation are all associated with the higher likelihood of retirement. Finding suggested that the incentive structure of the public pension for public sector workers, who are mostly Mainlanders, could contribute to the higher likelihood of retirement. However, the magnitude of mediator is much larger for the older cohort than the younger cohort. The study not only could benefit cumulative advantage approach by analyzing East Asia data but also bring policy implication, that retirement policy makers should reduce public pension incentive for public sector workers to delay the retirement age.

Trends in the Massachusetts cranberry industry create opportunities for the restoration of cultivated riparian wetlands

Many ecosystem services provided by wetlands decline if they are managed for agricultural use. Ecological restoration of retired agricultural lands can restore these ecosystem services, yet practitioners require information on where restoration is possible and most likely to succeed. We report trends in the Massachusetts cranberry industry which suggest that cranberry farms located in riparian fens are well suited for ecological restoration that enhance their characteristics and functions as wetlands. We created a classification scheme for cranberry farms based on their: (1) crop status; (2) renovation status; (3) cultivar type; and (4) hydrologic type for the Wareham River watershed in southeastern Massachusetts. We ranked farms for their priority for restoration and extrapolated our results to the total cranberry acreage of Massachusetts. The occurrence of low‐yielding native cranberry cultivars in all riparian farms (i.e. those with a direct hydrological connection to an adjacent river or stream), combined with our finding that 100% of the area of the highest‐yielding new cultivars were planted in newly renovated but non‐riparian farms suggest that riparian farms are not targets for investment but instead have a high likelihood of retirement. We found that 20% of farm area in this watershed had riparian hydrology, a proportion suggesting the existence of over 1,000 ha of high‐priority farms for restoration statewide. Restoration of these stream‐adjacent riparian farms can provide an exit strategy for some cranberry growers, ease economic pressures on remaining growers, and develop wetlands able to provide ecosystem services such as habitat provision, nitrogen removal, and recreation.

Retirement and depressive symptoms: A 10-year cross-lagged analysis

The effect of retirement on depressive symptoms remains a subject of scientific inquiry, given the fact that previous studies have found mixed results. Moreover, the possible effect of depressive symptoms on the propensity to retire remains relatively understudied. Given the sheer number of retirees, and the significance of depressive symptoms for individuals' well-being and ability to work, as well as for societies at large, we used a large longitudinal dataset to examine the reciprocal effects of retirement on depressive symptoms, and of depressive symptoms on the propensity to retire. Using six waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data collected over a period of 10 years (N = 6584), we tested cross-lagged models of the reciprocal relationships between retirement and depressive symptoms. The analysis revealed that retirement results in increased depressive symptoms, and that depressive symptoms increase the likelihood of retirement. No sex differences in the lagged associations were found. We conclude that depressive symptoms are a risk factor for retirement, and practitioners should try and identify older workers suffering from depression prior to the retirement transition. Similarly, as retirement increases depressive symptoms, the transition should be treated as an important and sometimes risky milestone, where adequate preparation is required.

The effect of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance program on the retirement and labor supply decision in China

Abstract In 2009, the Chinese government introduced the New Rural Social Pension Insurance (NRSPI) program; it was expanded nationwide in 2012. This paper investigates the effects of the NRSPI program on retirement and old-age labor supply patterns in China, using two-wave nationwide survey data. After controlling for endogenous bias by using instrumental variables, we found that receiving pension benefits from the NRSPI program can substantially increase the likelihood of retirement and reduce the number of working hours among women, even though the amount of NRSPI pension benefits is far below the minimum cost of living. Furthermore, we broke down the labor supply into agricultural and nonagricultural labor supply, and found that most of the decrease in labor supply stems from the agricultural labor supply. We also found that people from different income brackets, contribution levels, education backgrounds, age groups, and household registration statuses behave differently in their retirement and in terms of labor supply decision-making.

Who Works Longer – and Why? Regional and Individual Characteristics in the Timing of Retirement

AbstractWho works longer – and why? This paper investigates the characteristics of people that stay longer in the workforce, even beyond the time they are eligible to retire. In our regional analysis, we use an 11‐year balanced panel of 290 Swedish regions. In the individual analysis, we use a large individual level panel to apply Cox proportional hazard estimates on ‘risk’ of entering retirement. Our results show a large gender difference: women tend to retire earlier than men. Between employees and entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs retire later. People in larger regions tend to retire later. Higher house prices, and the share of small firms in a region correlate with a lower likelihood of retirement. The local tax rate and the share of blue‐collar workers in a region is significantly related to lower retirement age. A high average wage, commuting intensity, and high human capital in a region is associated with later retirement.

A Small Amount Can Make a Big Difference: The Effect of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance Program on the Retirement Decision in China

In 2009, the New Rural Social Pension Insurance program (NRSPI) was introduced and expanded to nationwide in 2012. This paper investigates the effect of the NRSPI on the retirement and old-age labor supply pattern in China using a two-wave nationwide survey data. Since the NRSPI is voluntary, we use instrument variables to control for the endogeneity bias. We find that receiving pension benefits from the NRSPI can substantially increase the likelihood of retirement and decrease number of working hours for females even though the pension benefit of the pension program is far below the minimum cost of living. We further decompose the labor supply into agricultural labor supply and non-agricultural labor supply, and find that most of the decrease in labor supply is from agricultural labor supply.

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing is predictive of return to work in cardiac patients after multicomponent rehabilitation.

Return to work (RTW) is a pivotal goal of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) in patients after acute cardiac event. We aimed to evaluate cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) parameters as predictors for RTW at discharge after CR. We analyzed data from a registry of 489 working-age patients (51.5 ± 6.9 years, 87.9 % men) who had undergone inpatient CR predominantly after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI 62.6 %), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG 17.2 %), or heart valve replacement (9.0 %). Sociodemographic and clinical parameters, noninvasive cardiac diagnostic (2D echo, exercise ECG, 6MWT) and psychodiagnostic screening data, as well as CPX findings, were merged with RTW data from the German statutory pension insurance program and analyzed for prognostic ability. During a mean follow-up of 26.5 ± 11.9 months, 373 (76.3 %) patients returned to work, 116 (23.7 %) did not, and 60 (12.3 %) retired. After adjustment for covariates, elective CABG (HR 0.68, 95 % CI 0.47-0.98; p = 0.036) and work intensity (per level HR 0.83, 95 % CI 0.73-0.93; p = 0.002) were negatively associated with the probability of RTW. Exercise capacity in CPX (in Watts) and the VE/VCO2-slope had independent prognostic significance for RTW. A higher work load increased (HR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.02-1.35; p = 0.028) the probability of RTW, while a higher VE/VCO2 slope decreased (HR 0.85, 95 % CI 0.76-0.96; p = 0.009) it. CPX also had prognostic value for retirement: the likelihood of retirement decreased with increasing exercise capacity (HR 0.50, 95 % CI 0.30-0.82; p = 0.006). CPX is a valid tool for assessing patients' ability to return to work. Therefore, it may be an essential part of functional assessment during CR for predicting participation in employment.

Abstract 13771: Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing is Predictive of Return to Work in Cardiac Patients After Rehabilitation

Introduction: Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) has an independent prognostic value, especially in cardiovascular patients. We aimed to evaluate parameters of CPX as predictors for return to work (RTW) at discharge of cardiac rehabilitation (CR). Hypothesis: Besides psychosocial as well as clinical parameters CPX variables are independent predictors of return to work in patients with cardiovascular diseases. Methods: We analysed sociodemographic and clinical data from a prospective registry of 489 patients (mean age 51.5±6.9 years, 87.9% men), who were referred to shortterm (3 weeks) inpatient CR between 06/2009 to 12/2011, predominantly after PCI (62.6%), CABG (17.2%) and heart valve replacement (9.0%). At admission, patients underwent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic (2D echo, exercise ECG, 6MWT) and a psychodiagnostic screening (HADS). CPX was performed at discharge for defining fitness. Results: During a mean follow up of 26.5±11.9 months 373 (76.3%) patients returned to work, 116 (23.7%) did not and 60 (12.3%) were retired. A higher number of comorbidities (p=0.011) and heavy work (p<0.001) were negatively associated with RTW whereas a higher exercise capacity at entry of CR (p<0.001) and elective PCI (p=0.02) increased the probability of RTW. After adjustment for covariates, max. work load (Watt) at CPX termination and the VE/VCO2-slope had an independent prognostic significance for RTW. A higher work load increased (p=0.009) while a higher VE/VCO2-slope decreased (p=0.027) the probability of RTW. Even for retirement, CPX had a prognostic value: the likelihood of retirement was smaller with increasing VO2AT (p=0.016). Conclusion: CPX is a meaningful tool to assess patients’ ability for return to work. Therefore it should be an essential part of functional assessment in CR for predicting participation in employment during two years after CR.

When They're Sixty-Four: Peer Effects and the Timing of Retirement

This paper examines the effect of peers on an individual's likelihood of retirement using an administrative dataset of all retirement-eligible Los Angeles teachers for the years 1998–2001. We use two large unexpected pension reforms that differentially impacted financial incentives within and across schools to construct an instrument for others' retirement decisions. Controlling for individual and school characteristics, we find that the retirement of an additional teacher in the previous year at the same school increases a teacher's own likelihood of retirement by 1.5–2 percentage points. We then explore some possible mechanisms through which this effect operates. (JEL H75, I21, J14, J26, J45)

When They're Sixty-Four: Peer Effects and the Timing of Retirement

This paper examines the effect of peers on an individual's likelihood of retirement using an administrative dataset of all retirement-eligible Los Angeles teachers for the years 1998-2001. We use two large unexpected pension reforms that differentially impacted financial incentives within and across schools to construct an instrument for others' retirement decisions. Controlling for individual and school characteristics, we find that the retirement of an additional teacher in the previous year at the same school increases a teacher's own likelihood of retirement by 2 percentage points. We then explore some possible mechanisms through which this effect operates.

Gender Differences in Retirement Decision in Hong Kong

ABSTRACT The study of labor force participation at older ages and the process of retirement do not have a long tradition in Asia's newly developed societies. This study, based on telephone survey of 950 respondents, examines various socio-economic factors that would influence retirement decision among older workers in Hong Kong. The findings show that older men were more likely to participate in the labor force than older women. Interestingly, older workers, in particular older women, with pension were less likely to retire. Having a working spouse decreased the likelihood of retirement and older workers, in particular older women, living with married children were more likely to retire. Poor health also discourages the propensity to continue working at old age. These findings confirm that retirement entails much more than just a decision to stop work, and that there were gender differences in retirement decision. Finally, several policy challenges, with reference to elderly women, concerning older workers' labor force participation were discussed.

The behavioural consequences of institutional rules: republicans in the US house

The Republicans gained a majority in the US House from the 1994 elections, and upon taking office they rewrote the rules that determine legislative power relations. This paper combines a 1996 attitudinal survey of US Representatives with demographic information, status within the House, and party position to examine the impact of the 1995 rule changes on satisfaction, ambition, and retirement. This paper demonstrates that member reactions to reform are explained jointly by their partisanship and their relative position within their party. Senior members of any party dislike rules making power more exclusive, and dissatisfaction increases the likelihood of retirement.

Self‐Defined Retirement Status and Engagement in Paid Work among Older Working‐Age Women: Comparison between Childless Women and Mothers

Utilizing data from the 1992–1994 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), this paper examines the question of whether three groups of older working‐age women—childless women, mothers with at least one child at home or temporarily away at school, and mothers with all their children living away from home—were different or similar in their likelihood of retirement and their actual work status. The results show that the childless group and the child‐not‐at‐home group were more likely than the child‐at‐home group to define themselves as retired, although the three groups were equally likely to engage in paid work activities. Both early childbearing history and ongoing parental financial obligations appear to influence women’s willingness to assume a retiree versus a nonretiree status. The findings may reflect an emerging trend of retirement being a status symbol rather than a marker of complete cessation from the world of work.

The Effect of Access to Post-Retirement Health Insurance on the Decision to Retire Early

The authors analyze the effect of the availability of post-retirement health insurance on early retirement behavior of men using data from the 1984, 1986, and 1988 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). They extend previous static models of retirement to account for access to health insurance as a factor in the retirement decision. The estimates from probit models of retirement during the SIPP panel period show that the offer of continued employer-provided health insurance coverage after retirement increased the likelihood of retirement before age 65. Also, the authors find evidence that the presence before retirement of retirement insurance coverage through a source in addition to the employer increased the likelihood of early retirement.