Likelihood Of Democratization Research Articles

Chinese Democratization: An Inevitability or Possibility?

China's rapid economic growth since its late 1970 reforms has produced significant debate among scholars concerning whether or not it will democratize. Despite extensive liberalization of its economy, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintains an iron grip on its political system. Modernization theory and the potential for a stagnating economy present two compelling arguments for a democratic future. Although Chinese authoritarianism faces significant pressures, the CCP's use of pragmatic political reforms, adaptation, and alternative forms of legitimacy make it resilient. Economic growth or decline is not a sufficient condition for democratization. Rather, the likelihood of democratization will depend on the ability of the CCP to address emerging challenges such as political corruption that could threaten China's authoritarian resilience.

Keep Your Friends Close and Your Enemies Closer: How Autocratic Cabinet Volatility Influences Democratic Transition

How does volatility under dictatorship affect the likelihood of democratization? Most scholarship focuses on differences in levels of key factors hypothesized to impact the likelihood of transition. This study, by contrast, investigates how volatility in elite welfare affects transition. That a dictator must rely upon a support coalition composed of select elites to retain office suggests that volatility in elite power and status is an important determinant of their decision to support the regime or push for transition. This paper focuses on one particularly important elite coalition under autocracy, a dictator's cabinet. Using a global sample of autocratic regimes from 1950-2006, I find that cabinet volatility is positively associated with democratization. This finding holds across several different measures of cabinet volatility and instrumental variables estimation. The paper therefore provides an agent-based mechanism linking autocratic volatility to one prominent way autocracies fail and democracies are instituted.

Foreign Aid and Regime Change: A Role for Donor Intent

This paper uses data from the AidData project to analyze the association between foreign aid and the likelihood of democratization in aid recipients. Previous studies have argued that aid can entrench dictatorships, making a transition less likely. I find evidence that the relationship between aid and democratization depends on characteristics of the aid donor. During the period from 1992-2007, aid from democratic donors is often found to be associated with an increase in the likelihood of a democratic transition. This is consistent with a scenario in which aid promotes democratization and/or a situation in which democratic donors reward countries that take steps in a democratic direction. In either case, it suggests that democratic donors use scarce aid resources to encourage democracy. During the same period, aid from authoritarian donors exhibits a negative relationship with democratization. This suggests that the source of funding matters, with donor preferences regarding democracy helping to determine the link between aid and democratization.