Probability Of Lightning Strikes Research Articles

Lightning strike probability and current simulation for simple structures and floating roof tank

Air terminations must be strategically positioned at high-risk points to prevent lightning bypass. The likelihood of a direct lightning strike to points on a building can be evaluated using the dynamic electro-geometrical model (DEGM), which considers the geometric proximity of lightning orientation points in spaces around the structure to meshed points on the structure. This study evaluates the probability of a direct strike to simple structures and the maximum lightning currents that may strike the structure. The DEGM concept is applied within a defined lightning collection volume which saves computation time. Patterns that can lead to alternatives to DEGM are identified within the percentage strike probability for different heights of two cuboid structures. Three floating roof tanks of radii 20 m, 30 m, and 40 m are analysed. Four classes of lightning protection are applied for a simple building in compliance with the International Electrotechnical Commission guidelines using different heights of air termination rods for a gable roof structure. For class I, the lightning strike interception probability of the two rods is 99.96%, 99.90% for class II, 99.72% for class III, and 99.48% for class IV. Magnitude colour-coded 3D diagrams are presented to highlight strike probability and current variations.

Short-Term Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System Using Lightning Strike Probability Prediction

The transmission lines are exposed to the atmosphere nature and will be affected by adverse weather such as lightning storm, so that it will affect the reliability of transmission system. This paper studies the fault probability model of transmission line during the lightning storm, and evaluates the short-term reliability of transmission system in the forecasting weather condition. Firstly, build the lightning strike fault probability model of the transmission line based on historical lightning record information, then calculate the lightning strike probability under the forecasting weather conditions, furthermore evaluate the reliability index of transmission system. Utilizing IEEE RTS-79 system to verify the validity of the proposed model and the results show that lightning has great negative influence on the transmission lines and the reliability of transmission system. The reliability evaluation model proposed in this paper can guide the short-term operation and online scheduling for transmission system operators.

一种输电线路雷击概率预测方法及其在输电系统短期可靠性评估中的应用

输电线路长期暴露在大气环境之中，雷电天气下输电线路易发生雷击跳闸事件，严重影响输电系统可靠性，有必要针对雷电天气下的输电网可靠性进行评估。本文研究了输电线路在雷电天气下的故障概率模型，并用于在预报天气状况下的输电网可靠性预测(评估)。首先根据历史雷电记录建立雷击故障概率模型，然后根据此概率模型对未来雷电天气下的输电线路雷击故障概率进行计算，并进而计算输电网可靠性指标。通过IEEE RTS-79测试系统验证了所提方法的有效性，算例结果表明，雷电天气对输电线路和系统可靠性有较大的影响。该模型可以指导雷电天气下电网短期运行和在线调度决策。 The transmission lines are exposed to the atmospheric environment and will be affected by adverse weather such as lightning storm, so that it will affect the reliability of transmission system. This paper studies the fault probability model of transmission line during the lightning storm, and evaluates the short-term reliability of transmission system in the forecasting weather condition. Firstly, we build the lightning strike fault probability model of the transmission line based on historical lightning record information, then calculate the lightning strike probability under the forecasting weather conditions, and furthermore evaluate the reliability index of transmission system. We utilize IEEE RTS-79 system to verify the validity of the proposed model and the results show that lightning has great negative influence on the transmission lines and the reliability of transmission system. The reliability evaluation model proposed in this paper can guide the short-term operation and online scheduling for transmission system operators.

Prediction Model of the Transmission Line Lightning Strike Probability Base on the Generalized Pareto Distribution

Prediction Model of the Transmission Line Lightning Strike Probability Base on the Generalized Pareto Distribution

Analysis about Influence on Surrounding Lightning Environment of Communication Base Station Based on One Lightning Disaster

With the lightning position data in recent years of Jiangsu, satellite and live data on 3rd,July,2012, the reasons for the damage to office room equipment beside a communication base station in Wujin District, Changzhou were analyzed, and reasonable suggestions were given. Based on the lightning accident, this paper analyzed the reasons of lightning strike to buildings near communication base station from weather, lightning strike probability, the validity of lightning protection device and potential. It is mainly because of lightning electromagnetic pulse. Base station can protect the buildings inside the protective area from direct strike, but which increased the possibility of damage to equipment from lightning impulse, at the same time, direct lightning strike probability in the scattered strike zone may increase. Therefore communication base station should be sufficiently far away from the building, when it cant meet a safe distance, not only the direct lightning protection measures should be taken to protect the station and buildings, but also protection measures against lightning electromagnetic pulse for equipment in buildings around are needed.