Lifetime Reproductive Success Research Articles

Adult telomere length is positively correlated with survival and lifetime reproductive success in a wild passerine.

Explaining variation in individual fitness is a key goal in evolutionary biology. Recently, telomeres, repeating DNA sequences capping chromosome ends, have gained attention as a biomarker for body state, physiological costs, and senescence. Existing research has provided mixed evidence for whether telomere length correlates with fitness, including survival and reproductive output. Moreover, few studies have examined how the rate of change in telomere length correlates with fitness in wild populations. Here, we intensively monitored an insular population of house sparrows, and collected longitudinal telomere and life history data (16 years, 1225 individuals). We tested whether telomere length and its rate of change predict fitness measures, namely survival, lifespan and annual and lifetime reproductive effort and success. Telomere length positively predicted short-term survival, independent of age, but did not predict lifespan, suggesting either a diminishing telomere length-survival correlation with age or other extrinsic factors of mortality. The positive association of telomere length with survival translated into reproductive benefits, as birds with longer telomeres produced more genetic recruits, hatchlings and reared more fledglings over their lifetime. In contrast, there was no association between telomere dynamics and annual reproductive output, suggesting telomere dynamics might not reflect the costs of reproduction in this population, potentially masked by variation in individual quality. The rate of change of telomere length did not correlate with neither lifespan nor lifetime reproductive success. Our results provide further evidence that telomere length correlates with fitness, and contribute to our understanding of the selection on, and evolution of, telomere dynamics.

Leach’s storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous), a long-lived seabird shows flexible, condition-dependent, feeding strategies in response to poor chick condition

BackgroundParent-offspring conflict represents the sensitive balance of resource allocation between self-maintenance and reproduction. Two strategies have been proposed to better understand how species manage this conflict. In fixed-level feeding behavior, parents feed offspring consistent quantities of food; while flexible feeding shows plasticity in parental allocation based on offspring need. Life-history theory predicts that parents of long-lived species prioritize their survival and may favor the fixed-level hypothesis to maximize lifetime reproductive success. In this study, we highlight the natural variation of parent-offspring allocation strategies within a unique population of Leach’s storm-petrels (Hydrobates leucorhous), and through month-long food supplementation and restriction manipulations, we investigate how chick condition affects parental provisioning during the chick-rearing period of reproduction.ResultsWe show that the parents upregulated chick feeding frequency of nutritionally deprived chicks, resulting in a larger total amount of food delivered during the study period. Additionally, the proportion of nights when both parents fed was highest in restricted chicks, and the proportion of nights when neither parents fed was lowest in restricted chicks, suggesting that storm-petrel parents shorten their foraging bouts to deliver food more often when their chicks are in relatively poor condition.ConclusionsOur results support that Leach’s storm-petrels use a flexible-level feeding strategy, suggesting that parents can assess offspring condition, and respond by feeding chicks at higher frequencies. These data provide insight on how a long-lived seabird balances its own energetic demands with that of their offspring during the reproductive period.

Context-specific “silver-spoon” effects of wetlands, climate, and temperature on lifetime fitness in a short-lived temperate-breeding migratory songbird

Drivers of global change are creating strongly contrasting early life conditions for developing offspring, which may have carry-over effects on lifetime fitness. We tested for “silver-spoon” effects of natal conditions (environmental conditions and maternal quality) and individual quality (pre-fledging) on the lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of aerial insectivorous adult tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) hatched in distinct populations with contrasting environments in Saskatchewan and British Columbia, Canada. In both populations, LRS of adults was influenced by environmental conditions they experienced as developing nestlings, but silver-spoon effects were context-dependent, indicating population-specific responses to the local environment. Higher natal temperature in Saskatchewan had positive silver-spoon effects on the LRS of adult swallows, but the opposite was observed in British Columbia, likely because the highest temperatures local recruits experienced as nestlings occurred during heat extremes. In Saskatchewan, where wetter conditions reflect higher wetland abundance and food supply, we detected a negative effect of good natal wetland conditions on adult LRS, contrary to our hypothesis. However, since current breeding wetland conditions are a strong driver of adult fitness, and adults experiencing high natal wetland abundance generally bred when wetland abundance was lower, we suspect any potential benefits of natal wetland abundance on LRS were overridden by wetland conditions during breeding. As hypothesized, wetter natal conditions in British Columbia, which reflect an unfavorable environment for developing nestlings, had negative silver-spoon effects on the LRS of adults. No maternal or pre-fledging quality effects were detected at either site. Therefore, LRS of individuals within distinct populations is influenced, at least in part, by carry-over effects of the natal environment that vary locally. Consequently, natal environmental conditions that affect fitness, with putative population-level consequences, may underly spatially-varying population trends of regionally distinct populations within a species’ range.

Multivariate genetic architecture reveals testosterone-driven sexual antagonism in contemporary humans

Sex difference (SD) is ubiquitous in humans despite shared genetic architecture (SGA) between the sexes. A univariate approach, i.e., studying SD in single traits by estimating genetic correlation, does not provide a complete biological overview, because traits are not independent and are genetically correlated. The multivariate genetic architecture between the sexes can be summarized by estimating the additive genetic (co)variance across shared traits, which, apart from the cross-trait and cross-sex covariances, also includes the cross-sex-cross-trait covariances, e.g., between height in males and weight in females. Using such a multivariate approach, we investigated SD in the genetic architecture of 12 anthropometric, fat depositional, and sex-hormonal phenotypes. We uncovered sexual antagonism (SA) in the cross-sex-cross-trait covariances in humans, most prominently between testosterone and the anthropometric traits - a trend similar to phenotypic correlations. 27% of such cross-sex-cross-trait covariances were of opposite sign, contributing to asymmetry in the SGA. Intriguingly, using multivariate evolutionary simulations, we observed that the SGA acts as a genetic constraint to the evolution of SD in humans only when selection is sexually antagonistic and not concordant. Remarkably, we found that the lifetime reproductive success in both the sexes shows a positive genetic correlation with anthropometric traits, but not with testosterone. Moreover, we demonstrated that genetic variance is depleted along multivariate trait combinations in both the sexes but in different directions, suggesting absolute genetic constraint to evolution. Our results indicate that testosterone drives SA in contemporary humans and emphasize the necessity and significance of using a multivariate framework in studying SD.

Selective breeding for high levels of voluntary exercise in mice does not reduce lifetime reproductive success or lifespan

The ways locomotor abilities may interact with life history traits are complicated and may involve shifts in resource allocation. For example, individuals that have large litters may have reduced energy available to support the organ systems required for high locomotor performance abilities. Alternatively, energy spent on excess physical activity might subtract from that available for somatic maintenance, and thus be negatively related to lifespan or to other fitness components that contribute to lifetime reproductive success (LRS). We studied lifetime reproductive successes, life span, and health span in mice from a long-term (>100 generations) artificial selection experiment that includes 4 replicate High Runner (HR) lines bred for voluntary locomotor activity on wheels and 4 lines that serve as non-selected Controls (C). Since reaching selection limits at around generation 17-27 (depending on line and sex), the HR mice have been running ~3-fold farther on a daily basis as compared with C mice, for both sexes, which leads to substantially increased energy expenditure and food consumption. Importantly, when housed without wheels, HR mice are not only more active, but also consume more food than C mice. In the present study, we tested for differences in LRS between the HR and C lines. We are also comparing lifespan (median, maximum) and healthspan (e.g., by measurement of maximal oxygen consumption [VO2max] during forced exercise and maximal sprint speed. Twelve male-female pairs per line from generation 97 (born Oct. 2021) are being maintained until their end of life. In addition to total number of pups weaned per pair, we record components of LRS, such as age at first and last litter for the pairs, number of litters, and inter-birth intervals. Here, we present a subset of results through the first 2+ years of the experiment. Only two of 100 pairs never gave birth to any litters, and 89 of 100 pairs weaned at least one litter. The total number of litters born to pairs ranged from 0 to 12, and the number of litters from which at least one pup was weaned ranged from 0 to 11, with a mean of 3.96+0.73 (SE) for C lines and 3.43+0.65 for HR lines (P=0.61). The total number of pups weaned (our measure of LRS) ranged from 0 to 80, with a mean of 29.1+8.1 (SE) for C lines and 25.8+4.4 for HR lines (P=0.73). Thus, we found no evidence that Darwinian fitness has been reduced by artificial selection for high voluntary exercise. As of 1 Nov. 2023, approximately 17% of the breeders are still alive, and preliminary analyses do not indicate significant differences between the C and HR lines in median or maximum lifespan. Supported by U.S. National Science Foundation grant IOS-2038528. This is the full abstract presented at the American Physiology Summit 2024 meeting and is only available in HTML format. There are no additional versions or additional content available for this abstract. Physiology was not involved in the peer review process.

The Ne/N ratio in applied conservation.

Recent developments within the IUCN and the Convention on Biological Diversity have affirmed the increasingly key role that effective population size (N e) and the effective size: census size ratio (N e/N) play in applied conservation and management of global biodiversity. This paper reviews and synthesizes information regarding the definition of N e and demographic and genetic methods for estimating effective size, census size, and their ratio. Emphasis is on single-generation estimates of contemporary N e/N, which are the most informative for practical applications. It is crucial to clearly define which individuals are included in the census size (N). Defining N as the number of adults alive at a given time facilitates comparisons across species. For a wide range of applications and experimental designs, inbreeding N e is simpler to calculate and interpret than variance N e. Effects of skewed sex ratio are generally modest, so most reductions to N e/N arise from overdispersed (greater-than-Poisson) variance in offspring number (). Even when fecundity changes with age, overdispersed within-age variance generally contributes most to overall , and both random and deterministic (mediated by selection) factors can be important. Most species are age-structured, so it is important to distinguish between effective size per generation (N e) and the effective number of breeders in one season or year (N b). Both N e and N b are important for applied conservation and management. For iteroparous species, a key metric is variance in lifetime reproductive success (), which can be affected by a variety of additional factors, including variation in longevity, skip or intermittent breeding, and persistent individual differences in reproductive success. Additional factors that can be important for some species are also discussed, including mating systems, population structure, sex reversal, reproductive compensation, captive propagation, and delayed maturity.

The impact of boldness on demographic rates and life-history outcomes in the wandering albatross.

Differences among individuals within a population are ubiquitous. Those differences are known to affect the entire life cycle with important consequences for all demographic rates and outcomes. One source of among-individual phenotypic variation that has received little attention from a demographic perspective is animal personality, which is defined as consistent and heritable behavioural differences between individuals. While many studies have shown that individual variation in individual personality can generate individual differences in survival and reproductive rates, the impact of personality on all demographic rates and outcomes remains to be assessed empirically. Here, we used a unique, long-term, dataset coupling demography and personality of wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans) in the Crozet Archipelago and a comprehensive analysis based on a suite of approaches (capture-mark-recapture statistical models, Markov chains models and structured matrix population models). We assessed the effect of boldness on annual demographic rates (survival, breeding probability, breeding success), life-history outcomes (life expectancy, lifetime reproductive outcome, occupancy times), and an integrative demographic outcome (population growth rate). We found that boldness had little impact on female demographic rates, but was very likely associated with lower breeding probabilities in males. By integrating the effects of boldness over the entire life cycle, we found that bolder males had slightly lower lifetime reproductive success compared to shyer males. Indeed, bolder males spent a greater proportion of their lifetime as non-breeders, which suggests longer inter-breeding intervals due to higher reproductive allocation. Our results reveal that the link between boldness and demography is more complex than anticipated by the pace-of-life literature and highlight the importance of considering the entire life cycle with a comprehensive approach when assessing the role of personality on individual performance and demography.

Effect of egg production dynamics on the functional response of two parasitoids.

Functional response describes the number of hosts attacked by a parasitoid in relation to host densities and plays an important role by connecting behavioral-level processes with community-level processes. Most functional response studies were carried out using simple experimental designs where the insects were confined to a plain and small arena with different host densities during a fixed period of time. With these designs, other factors that might affect the functional response of parasitoids were not analyzed, such as fecundity, age, and experience. We proposed a series of latent-variables Markovian models that comprised an integrated approach of functional response and egg production models to estimate the realized lifetime reproductive success of parasitoids. As a case study, we used the parasitoids Anagyrus cachamai and A. lapachosus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae), two candidate agents for neoclassical biocontrol of the Puerto Rican cactus pest mealybug, Hypogeococcus sp. (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae). The tested species were assessed according to their physiology and prior experience. We estimated the number of mature eggs after emergence, egg production on the first day, egg production rate, the proportion of eggs resorbed, egg resorption threshold, and egg storage capacity. Anagyrus cachamai and A. lapachosus both presented a type III functional response. However, the two parasitoids behaved differently; for A. cachamai, the number of parasitized hosts decreased with female age and depended on the number of mature eggs that were available for oviposition, whereas A. lapachosus host parasitism increased with female age and was modulated by its daily egg load and previous experience. The methodology presented may have large applicability in pest control, invasive species management, and conservation biology, as it has the potential to increase our understanding of the reproductive biology of a wide variety of species, ultimately leading to improved management strategies.

Born with an advantage: early life and maternal effects on fitness in female ground squirrels.

Lifetime fitness and its determinants are an important topic in the study of behavioral ecology and life-history evolution. Early life conditions comprise some of these determinants, warranting further investigation into their impact. In some mammals, babies born lighter tend to have lower life expectancy than those born heavier, and some of these life-history traits are passed on to offspring, with lighter-born females giving birth to lighter offspring. We investigated how weight at weaning, the relative timing of birth in the season, maternal weight, and maternal age affected the longevity and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of female Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus). We hypothesized that early life conditions such as offspring weight would not only have lifetime fitness consequences but also intergenerational effects. We found that weight at weaning had a significant impact on longevity, with heavier individuals living longer. The relative timing of an individual's birth did not have a significant association with either longevity or LRS. Individuals born to heavier mothers were found to have significantly higher LRS than those born to lighter mothers. Finally, maternal age was found to be significantly associated with their offspring's LRS, with older mothers having less successful offspring. Our results provide evidence that early life conditions do have lifelong fitness and sometimes intergenerational consequences for Columbian ground squirrels.

Why do predators attack parasitized prey? Insights from a probabilistic model and a literature survey

Predators and parasitoids often encounter parasitized prey or hosts during foraging. While the outcomes of such encounters have been extensively studied for insect parasitoids, the consequences of a predator encountering parasitized prey have received less attention. One extreme example involves the potter wasp Delta dimidiatipenne that frequently provision their nest with parasitized caterpillars, despite the low suitability of this prey for consumption by their offspring. This raises two main questions: (1) why do female potter wasps continue collecting parasitized caterpillars? and (2) is this an exceptional example, or do predatory insects often suffer from fitness costs due to encounters with parasitized prey? We addressed the first question using a probabilistic mathematical model predicting the value of discrimination between parasitized and unparasitized prey for the potter wasp, and the second question by surveying the literature for examples in which the parasitism status of prey affected prey susceptibility, suitability, or prey choice by a predator. The model demonstrates that only under certain conditions is discrimination against parasitized prey beneficial in terms of the potter wasp’s lifetime reproductive success. The literature survey suggests that the occurrence of encounters and consumption of parasitized prey is common, but the overall consequences of such interactions have rarely been quantified. We conclude that the profitability and ability of a predator to discriminate against parasitized prey under natural conditions may be limited and call for additional studies quantifying the outcome of such interactions.

Inequality among offspring, correlates of recruitment and lifetime reproductive success in a long-lived raptor

Inequality among offspring, correlates of recruitment and lifetime reproductive success in a long-lived raptor

Sex and early-life conditions shape telomere dynamics in an ectotherm.

Telomeres, the repetitive DNA regions that protect the ends of chromosomes, and their shortening have been linked to key life history trade-offs among growth, reproduction and lifespan. In contrast to most endotherms, many ectotherms can compensate for telomere shortening throughout life by upregulation of telomerase in somatic tissues. However, during development, marked by rapid growth and an increased sensitivity to extrinsic factors, the upregulation of telomerase may be overwhelmed, resulting in long-term impacts on telomere dynamics. In ectotherms, one extrinsic factor that may play a particularly important role in development is temperature. Here, we investigated the influence of developmental temperature and sex on early-life telomere dynamics in an oviparous ectotherm, Lacerta agilis. While there was no effect of developmental temperature on telomere length at hatching, there were subsequent effects on telomere maintenance capacity, with individuals incubated at warm temperatures exhibiting less telomere maintenance compared with cool-incubated individuals. Telomere dynamics were also sexually dimorphic, with females having longer telomeres and greater telomere maintenance compared with males. We suggest that selection drives this sexual dimorphism in telomere maintenance, in which females maximise their lifetime reproductive success by investing in traits promoting longevity such as maintenance, while males invest in short-term reproductive gains through a polygynous mating behaviour. These early-life effects, therefore, have the potential to mediate life-long changes to life histories.

Polyphenism predicts actuarial senescence and lifespan in tiger salamanders.

Actuarial senescence (called 'senescence' hereafter) often shows broad variation at the intraspecific level. Phenotypic plasticity likely plays a central role in among-individual heterogeneity in senescence rate (i.e. the rate of increase in mortality with age), although our knowledge on this subject is still very fragmentary. Polyphenism-the unique sub-type of phenotypic plasticity where several discrete phenotypes are produced by the same genotype-may provide excellent study systems to investigate if and how plasticity affects the rate of senescence in nature. In this study, we investigated whether facultative paedomorphosis influences the rate of senescence in a salamander, Ambystoma mavortium nebulosum. Facultative paedomorphosis, a unique form of polyphenism found in dozens of urodele species worldwide, leads to the production of two discrete, environmentally induced phenotypes: metamorphic and paedomorphic individuals. We leveraged an extensive set of capture-recapture data (8948 individuals, 24 years of monitoring) that were analysed using multistate capture-recapture models and Bayesian age-dependent survival models. Multistate models revealed that paedomorphosis was the most common developmental pathway used by salamanders in our study system. Bayesian age-dependent survival models then showed that paedomorphs have accelerated senescence in both sexes and shorter adult lifespan (in females only) compared to metamorphs. In paedomorphs, senescence rate and adult lifespan also varied among ponds and individuals. Females with good body condition and high lifetime reproductive success had slower senescence and longer lifespan. Late-breeding females also lived longer but showed a senescence rate similar to that of early-breeding females. Moreover, males with good condition had longer lifespan than males with poor body condition, although they had similar senescence rates. In addition, late-breeding males lived longer but, unexpectedly, had higher senescence than early-breeding males. Overall, our work provides one of the few empirical cases suggesting that environmentally cued polyphenism could affect the senescence of a vertebrate in nature, thus providing insights on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of developmental plasticity on ageing.

Mitochondrial function and sexual selection: can physiology resolve the 'lek paradox'?

Across many taxa, males use elaborate ornaments or complex displays to attract potential mates. Such sexually selected traits are thought to signal important aspects of male 'quality'. Female mating preferences based on sexual traits are thought to have evolved because choosy females gain direct benefits that enhance their lifetime reproductive success (e.g. greater access to food) and/or indirect benefits because high-quality males contribute genes that increase offspring fitness. However, it is difficult to explain the persistence of female preferences when males only provide genetic benefits, because female preferences should erode the heritable genetic variation in fitness that sexually selected traits signal. This 'paradox of the lek' has puzzled evolutionary biologists for decades, and inspired many hypotheses to explain how heritable variation in sexually selected traits is maintained. Here, we discuss how factors that affect mitochondrial function can maintain variation in sexually selected traits despite strong female preferences. We discuss how mitochondrial function can influence the expression of sexually selected traits, and we describe empirical studies that link the expression of sexually selected traits to mitochondrial function. We explain how mothers can affect mitochondrial function in their offspring by (a) influencing their developmental environment through maternal effects and (b) choosing a mate to increase the compatibility of mitochondrial and nuclear genes (i.e. the 'mitonuclear compatibility model of sexual selection'). Finally, we discuss how incorporating mitochondrial function into models of sexual selection might help to resolve the paradox of the lek, and we suggest avenues for future research.

Effects of the temperature during embryonic development on adult reproduction and the phenotype of the second generation in zebra finches

Across taxa, the temperature experienced by individuals early in life can have large effects on their development. However, comparatively little is known about whether the effects of this thermal developmental environment can be long-lasting or transgenerational. In birds, one important aspect of the developmental environment is incubation and, in general, eggs incubated at low temperatures produce offspring with smaller morphology, suboptimal physiology, and even lower long-term survival. Yet, little is known about whether incubation temperature may affect avian reproduction in adulthood, and nothing is known about whether the effects of avian incubation temperature may be transgenerational. To investigate this, we incubated zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) eggs at two different temperatures: 37.5 °C (‘control’) and 36.3 °C (‘low’), raised nestlings until adulthood, and allowed same-temperature treatment pairs to reproduce. We found that F1 individuals incubated at the low temperature had shorter beaks at the start of reproduction than those incubated at the control temperature. Further, compared to those from control parents, F2 offspring from parents incubated at the low temperature had lighter body masses at 5 days-old and had shorter beaks at 30 days-old. However, we found little evidence that incubation temperature affected other aspects of reproduction, with no effect on latency to lay, clutch size, egg mass, incubation period, hatching success/asynchrony, fledging, or the number of offspring that ultimately survived until independence. Overall, we found some evidence that a difference in the early thermal developmental environment can have lasting morphological effects into the next generation. However, future work is needed to determine whether the incubation temperature that birds experience as embryos may influence parental care behaviors or lifetime reproductive success.

Genetic background and thermal regime influence adaptation to novel environment in the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus.

Climate change is associated with the increase in both the mean and variability of thermal conditions. Therefore, the use of more realistic fluctuating thermal regimes is the most appropriate laboratory method for predicting population responses to thermal heterogeneity. However, the long- and short-term implications of evolving under such conditions are not well understood. Here, we examined differences in key life-history traits among populations of seed beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus) that evolved under either constant control conditions or in an environment with fluctuating daily temperatures. Specifically, individuals from two distinct genetic backgrounds were kept for 19 generations at one of two temperatures, a constant temperature (T = 29 °C) or a fluctuating daily cycle (Tmean = 33 °C, Tmax = 40 °C, and Tmin = 26 °C), and were assayed either in their evolved environment or in the other environment. We found that beetles that evolved in fluctuating environments but were then switched to constant 29 °C conditions had far greater lifetime reproductive success compared with beetles that were kept in their evolved environments. This increase in reproductive success suggests that beetles raised in fluctuating environments may have evolved greater thermal breadth than control condition beetles. In addition, the degree of sexual dimorphism in body size and development varied as a function of genetic background, evolved thermal environment, and current temperature conditions. These results not only highlight the value of incorporating diel fluctuations into climate research but also suggest that populations that experience variability in temperature may be better able to respond to both short- and long-term changes in environmental conditions.

The impact of helping experience on helper life-history and fitness in a cooperatively breeding bird.

Cooperative breeding occurs when helpers provide alloparental care to the offspring of a breeding pair. One hypothesis of why helping occurs is that helpers gain valuable skills that may increase their own future reproductive success. However, research typically focuses on the effect of helping on short-term measures of reproductive success. Fewer studies have considered how helping affects long-term fitness measures. Here, we analyze how helping experience affects key breeding and fitness-related parameters in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis). Importantly, we control for females that have cobred (reproduced as a subordinate by laying an egg within a territory in which they are not a dominant breeder), as they already have experience with direct reproduction. Helping experience had no significant association with any of the metrics considered, except that helpers had an older age at first dominance. Accounting for helping experience, females that had cobred produced more adult offspring (≥1 year) after acquiring dominance and had a higher lifetime reproductive success (LRS) than females that had never cobred. Our results suggest that, in the Seychelles warbler, helping experience alone does not increase the fitness of helpers in any of the metrics considered, and highlights the importance of separating the effects of helping from cobreeding. Our findings also emphasize the importance of analyzing the effect of helping at various life-history stages, as higher short-term fitness may not translate to an overall increase in LRS.

Partitioning variance in reproductive success, within years and across lifetimes.

Variance in reproductive success (, with k = number of offspring) plays a large role in determining the rate of genetic drift and the scope within which selection acts. Various frameworks have been proposed to parse factors that contribute to , but none has focused on age-specific values of , which indicate the degree to which reproductive skew is overdispersed (compared to the random Poisson expectation) among individuals of the same age and sex. Instead, within-age effects are generally lumped with residual variance and treated as "noise." Here, an ANOVA sums-of-squares framework is used to partition variance in annual and lifetime reproductive success into between-group and within-group components. For annual reproduction, the between-age effect depends on age-specific fecundity (b x), but relatively few empirical data are available on the within-age effect, which depends on ϕ x. By defining groups by age-at-death rather than age, the same ANOVA framework can be used to partition variance in lifetime reproductive success (LRS) into between-group and within-group components. Analytical methods are used to develop null-model expectations for random contributions to within-group and between-group components. For analysis of LRS, random variation in longevity appears as part of the between-group variance, and effects (if any) of skip breeding and persistent individual differences contribute to the within-group variance. Simulations are used to show that the methods for variance partitioning are asymptotically unbiased. Practical application is illustrated with empirical data for annual reproduction in American black bears and lifetime reproduction in Dutch great tits. Results show that overdispersed within-age variance (1) dominates annual in both male and female black bears, (2) is the primary factor that reduces annual effective size to a fraction of the number of adults, and (3) represents most of the opportunity for selection. In contrast, about a quarter of the variance in LRSin great tits can be attributed to random variation in longevity, and most of the rest is due to modest differences in fecundity with age estimated for a single cohort of females. R code is provided that reads generic input files for annual and lifetime reproductive success and allows users to conduct variance partitioning with their own data.

Earlier springs increase goose breeding propensity and nesting success at Arctic but not at temperate latitudes.

Intermittent breeding is an important tactic in long-lived species that trade off survival and reproduction to maximize lifetime reproductive success. When breeding conditions are unfavourable, individuals are expected to skip reproduction to ensure their own survival. Breeding propensity (i.e. the probability for a mature female to breed in a given year) is an essential parameter in determining reproductive output and population dynamics, but is not often studied in birds because it is difficult to obtain unbiased estimates. Breeding conditions are especially variable at high latitudes, potentially resulting in a large effect on breeding propensity of Arctic-breeding migratory birds, such as geese. With a novel approach, we used GPS-tracking data to determine nest locations, breeding propensity and nesting success of barnacle geese, and studied how these varied with breeding latitude and timing of arrival on the breeding grounds relative to local onset of spring. Onset of spring at the breeding grounds was a better predictor of breeding propensity and nesting success than relative timing of arrival. At Arctic latitudes (>66° N), breeding propensity decreased from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.65-0.97) in early springs to 0.22 (95% CI: 0.06-0.55) in late springs, while at temperate latitudes, it varied between 0.75 (95% CI: 0.38-0.93) and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.41-0.99) regardless of spring phenology. Nesting success followed a similar pattern and was lower in later springs at Arctic latitudes, but not at temperate latitudes. In early springs, a larger proportion of geese started breeding despite arriving late relative to the onset of spring, possibly because the early spring enabled them to use local resources to fuel egg laying and incubation. While earlier springs due to climate warming are considered to have mostly negative repercussions on reproductive success through phenological mismatches, our results suggest that these effects may partly be offset by higher breeding propensity and nesting success.

Sexual selection buffers the negative consequences of population fragmentation on adaptive plastic responses to increasing temperatures.

Whether sexual selection facilitates or hampers the ability to plastically respond to novel environments might depend on population structure, via its effects on sexual interactions and associated fitness payoffs. Using experimentally evolved lines of the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, we tested whether individuals evolving under different sexual selection (monogamy vs. polygamy) and population spatial structure (metapopulation vs. undivided populations) treatments differed in their response across developmental thermal conditions (control, hot, or stressful) in a range of fitness and fitness-associated traits. We found that individuals from subdivided populations had lower lifetime reproductive success at hot temperatures, but only in lines evolving under relaxed sexual selection, revealing a complex interaction between sexual selection, population structure, and thermal environmental stress on fitness. We also found an effect of population structure on several traits, including fertility and adult emergence success, under exposure to high thermal conditions. Finally, we found a strong negative effect of hot and stressful temperatures on fitness and associated traits. Our results show that population structure can exacerbate the impact of a warming climate, potentially leading to declines in population viability, but that sexual selection can buffer the negative influence of population subdivision on adaptation to warm temperatures.