Lifeline Disruption Research Articles

Methodology for estimating regional production capacity loss rate in industrial sectors caused by disasters: A case study of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes

The estimation of regional Production Capacity Loss Rate (PCLR) in industrial sectors after disasters is critical for disaster mitigation, resource allocation and restoration. Recent studies to estimate the PCLR in industrial sectors were based on hypothetical disaster survey data for resistance analysis and the linear regression model for recovery analysis, which may cause non-negligible bias. Moreover, these models did not incorporate the impact of lifeline disruption and restoration, thus further amplifying the estimation bias. To fill this gap, this study proposes a comprehensive regional PCLR estimation framework that incorporates the impacts of lifeline disruptions into resistance analysis and lifeline restoration into recovery analysis to improve the PCLR estimation accuracy. Specifically, this study utilizes lifeline resilience factors (LRFs) to quantify the impact of lifeline disruption on the production capacity rate immediately after the earthquake, and apply a semi-Markov recovery function to model the recovery rates considering the initial damage and lifeline availability influences. Then, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study of 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes to verify its effectiveness and accuracy. In this case study. Results shows that the non-manufacturing sector is more resistant than the manufacturing sector, yet lower recovery ability, ultimately resulting in greater production losses. The Mean Square Errors between the estimated PCLR and the official statistical of Kumamoto prefecture's Index of Industrial Production in each industry are less than 0.05, proves the validity of the proposed model and indicates the improved accuracy of loss estimation compared to previous studies. In addition, comparison results indicate improved accuracy of loss estimation compared to previous studies.

Designing the building space of a shopping street to use as a disaster evacuation shelter during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study in Kobe, Japan

This study considers the risk of a natural hazard-induced disaster occurring during a pandemic, such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and develops the idea of utilizing a shopping street with disaster-proof buildings as a temporary evacuation shelter by incorporating countermeasures against the spread of infectious diseases. Using a case study of a shopping street in Kobe, Japan, we estimate shelter capacity by considering the requirement of 6 m2 of space allotted for each person. The shelter can accommodate 1194 evacuees and provide them with food and drinks for one day, even in the worst case of lifeline disruption. This study proposes a method of designing shelter space, and demonstrates how non-homogeneous and noncontinuous spaces within shopping street buildings can be applied to prevent the spread of infection, through the classification of evacuee types and use of space and facilities designated for each type. The study further examines the liability issue of secondary infection at the shelter with reference to civic law and the roles of government in developing a distributed evacuation framework.

Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions

Lifeline disruptions can represent a serious economic threat at various scales. However, firm-level empirical evidence regarding the consequences and reliability of lifeline services, and how lifeline service disruptions impact on economic losses after disasters, is still lacking. This study applies a temporal, non-homogeneous, Markov process approach that explicitly considers multiple lifeline service disruptions. This approach is used to quantitatively estimate the impacts of multiple lifeline disruptions on business production capacity losses. The model is illustrated based on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake case study with detailed information obtained from individual business recovery data. The result indicates that the restoration of lifeline systems during disruptions should consider each business service given that it significantly affects business production capacity recovery. For example, the case study results indicate that if electrical power, water and gas are disrupted, restoration of electrical power supply yields the highest influence on production capacity improvement, amounting to 15% per day on average, compared with 10% per day for gas restorations, and 8% per day for water restoration. The proposed model can provide information to business managers and policymakers on the optimum recovery strategy and on how to mitigate economic losses in disruption event cases.

Estimating lifeline resilience factors using post-disaster business recovery data

Recent studies have discussed lifeline resilience factors for industrial sectors. However, these results are derived from business surveys on hypothetical disasters or estimations based on expert opinions: this is mainly due to a lack of data from businesses that actually experienced lifeline disruptions after a disaster. Therefore, this study proposes a modeling framework to estimate the remaining proportions of production capacity after lifeline disruptions due to a disaster, called lifeline resilience factors, in different business sectors. Lifeline resilience factors are estimated using a production function based on responses from a post-disaster business survey in areas affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. A comparative study between the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors was conducted to understand their relative resilience and vulnerability. The results show the varying importance of different lifeline services among sectors and are consistent with those of existing studies. These findings make a significant contribution in confirming the reliability and stability of lifeline services for post-disaster economic impact analysis.

A Decision-Support Algorithm for Post-Earthquake Water Services Recovery and Its Application to the 22 February 2011 Mw6.2 Christchurch Earthquake

As the cost of lifeline disruption rises with the size and complexity of urban communities, increasing efforts are put into enhancing infrastructure resilience to natural disasters. Aiming to improve the understanding of water supply network seismic resilience, this paper examines in detail the initial performance and restoration of the water supply network following the 22 February 2011 Mw6.2 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake. In addition, a method to optimize the recovery of such systems is developed in two phases: the prioritization of pipe inspection and prioritization of pipe repairs. The results inferred from the observed pipe repairs suggest that the recovery was carried out efficiently; however, applying the proposed methodology would have substantially improved the recovery of the system with a 30% reduction in the number of buildings deprived of water in the first two days. Assumptions and limitations of the modeling are also discussed and practical solutions given to apply this framework in real-time for post-earthquake restoration.

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY LOSS RATE AFTER THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI IN 2011

This research aims to investigate a method for estimating the production capacity loss rate (PCLR) of industrial sectors damaged by a disaster, such as an earthquake, tsunami, or nuclear radiation, particularly the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. PCLR is fundamental information required to gain an understanding of economic losses caused by a disaster. In particular, this paper proposes a method of PCLR estimation that considers the two main causes of capacity losses as observed from past earthquake disasters, namely damage to production facilities and disruption of lifeline systems. To achieve the quantitative estimation of PCLR, functional fragility curves considering the relationship between production capacity and earthquake ground motion and lifeline resilience factors for capturing the impact of lifeline disruptions have been adopted, while actual recovery curves are considered mainly for damaged facilities. Through the application of this method to the case study of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the PCLR in various industrial sectors is estimated; the estimated PCLR in the manufacturing sectors are then compared to the corresponding index of industrial production. The results demonstrate that the estimated values are close to the actual production indices in the overall manufacturing sector and many of the individual sectors.

A Survey on Residents' Behavior during a Power Outage caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake

Power supply was disrupted in several parts of Japan in the aftermath of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We conducted an internet survey on the residents of Sendai city, Miyagi Prefecture, and Kanagawa Prefecture in order to understand the nature and extent of the power outages and the influence of these disruptions on customers. We also investigated the impact of the rolling blackouts in Kanagawa that started in mid-March, 2011. On the basis of the survey results, this paper presented the quantitative effects of the lifeline disruptions on people's behavior, particularly, on the evacuation and sheltering behavior. In future studies, we would like to identify the minimum energy demand in emergency situations on the basis of the average energy consumption in smart houses that control energy use using Information and Communication Technology (ICT).

Improvement of Local Capability Under Lifeline Disruptions by Construction of Distributed Self-Sustaining Zone – Based on Research of Disaster Base Hospitals in Tokyo Capital Area

Measures must be taken to prepare against lifeline disruptions caused by earthquakes in the Tokyo capital area. In this study, a survey was conducted targeting important hospitals in the capital area of Japan to understand the situation of water and energy supply facilities of buildings and the disaster preparedness. It is clear that disaster base hospitals tend to have highperformance energy facilities to support the continuity of operations during a disaster. This paper presents the concept of a distributed self-sustaining district to improve the local capability to overcome lifeline disruptions. The suitability of implementing this concept in the hospitals in a given district is also assessed in this study.

Lifelines performance and management following the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake, New Zealand

A magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck the city of Christchurch at 12:51pm on Tuesday 22 February 2011. The earthquake caused 182 fatalities, a large number of injuries, and resulted in widespread damage to the built environment, including significant disruption to the lifelines. The event created the largest lifeline disruption in a New Zealand city in 80 years, with much of the damage resulting from extensive and severe liquefaction in the Christchurch urban area. The Christchurch earthquake occurred when the Canterbury region and its lifelines systems were at the early stage of recovering from the 4 September 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) magnitude 7.1 earthquake. This paper describes the impact of the Christchurch earthquake on lifelines by briefly summarising the physical damage to the networks, the system performance and the operational response during the emergency management and the recovery phase. Special focus is given to the performance and management of the gas, electric and road networks and to the liquefaction ejecta clean-up operations that contributed to the rapid reinstatement of the functionality of many of the lifelines. The water and wastewater system performances are also summarized. Elements of resilience that contributed to good network performance or to efficient emergency and recovery management are highlighted in the paper.

Business closure and relocation: a comparative analysis of the Loma Prieta earthquake and Hurricane Andrew

The occurrence of a number of large-scale disasters or catastrophes in recent years, including the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004), the Kashmir earthquake (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), have raised our awareness regarding the devastating effects of disasters on human populations and the importance of developing mitigation and preparedness strategies to limit the consequences of such events. However, there is still a dearth of social science research focusing on the socio-economic impact of disasters on businesses in the United States. This paper contributes to this research literature by focusing on the impact of disasters on business closure and relocation through the use of multivariate logistic regression models, specifically focusing on the Loma Prieta earthquake (1989) and Hurricane Andrew (1992). Using a multivariate model, we examine how physical damage to the infrastructure, lifeline disruption and business characteristics, among others, impact business closure and relocation following major disasters.

Estimation of Lifeline Resilience Factors Based on Surveys of Japanese Industries

This paper discusses the resilience factors of industrial sectors under lifeline (electricity, water, and gas) system disruptions. The resilience factor is one of the quantitative measurements of lifeline impacts, which focuses on the production output of some industrial sectors during lifeline disruptions. Recent studies have provided the detailed structure of business resilience that includes multiple resilience options, such as production rescheduling, inventories, and back-up generators. However, the impacts of these options on resilience factor are not thoroughly investigated due to the lack of data. In addition, resilience factor in previous study is assumed to be applied only to the single-lifeline disruption case, which is a limited case in large-scale disasters. In this study, the resilience factors for 27 industrial sectors are estimated based on the empirical surveys conducted in the Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures, Japan, focusing on more rigorous characteristics of resilience. One particular contribution of this paper is introducing the resilience factor that considers individual and compound effects of available resilience options along with multiple lifeline disruptions.

Survey of Economic Impacts on Residents Caused by Multiple Lifeline Disruptions during a Disaster

Fails of lifeline supplies are triggered by many factors such as natural disasters. Development of their impact assessments and countermeasure methodologies for each trigger are critical tasks in disaster risk management of lifeline systems. Therefore, this paper conducted the CVM type of economic impact survey on local residents, considering the multiple lifeline (electricity, gas, water) disruption scenarios, which is peculiar to the earthquake disaster case. One of the obtained results is that WTP for avoiding all the lifeline disruptions produces larger values than the sum of WTPs for avoiding individual lifeline disruption respectively.

A lifeline vulnerability study in Barcelona, Spain

Abstract The term vulnerability is used as a measure of the damage suffered by a structure due to seismic activity. Vulnerability to ground movement is determined by the structure itself; therefore, the vulnerability of a system does not depend on the local seismic risk. This definition of vulnerability indicates that a structure may be vulnerable in spite of being located in a seismically safe area. Lifeline is an earthquake engineering term denoting those systems necessary for human life and urban function, without which large urban regions cannot exist. Lifelines basically convey food, water, fuel, energy, information, and other materials necessary for human existence from the production areas to the consuming urban areas. Prolonged disruption of lifelines such as the water supply or electric power for a city or urbanized region would inevitably lead to major economic losses, deteriorated public healt, and eventually population migration. Earthquakes are probably the most likely natural disaster that would lead to major lifeline disruption. The adequate operation of lifelines is vital for the economic development of regions under moderate to high seismic activity. After an earthquake, the proper operation of all vital systems is necessary, for instance hospitals for medical attention of the wounded and highways for communication and assistance for victims. In this work we apply the knowledge of pipeline vulnerability to the water supply system, telephone, gas, electricity, sanitary sewer pipelines (waste water), subway, and galleries systems in Barcelona.

Business interruption losses from natural hazards: conceptual and methodological issues in the case of the Northridge earthquake

This paper presents several refinements in a hazard loss estimation methodology and applies it to measuring business interruption losses from utility lifeline disruptions following the Northridge Earthquake. The analysis indicates that losses are highly sensitive to business resiliency. The results are then compared with survey-based estimates in an attempt at model validation.

Business interruption losses from natural hazards: conceptual and methodological issues in the case of the Northridge earthquake

Abstract This paper presents several refinements in a hazard loss estimation methodology and applies it to measuring business interruption losses from utility lifeline disruptions following the Northridge Earthquake. The analysis indicates that losses are highly sensitive to business resiliency. The results are then compared with survey-based estimates in an attempt at model validation.

The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake: Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the regional economic impacts of electricity lifeline disruptions caused by a catastrophic earthquake. The methodology is based on specially designed input‐output and linear programming models. A simulation of a major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone near Memphis, Tennessee, indicates the potential production loss over the recovery period could amount to as much as 7 percent of gross regional product. Reallocation of scarce electricity across sectors could reduce the impacts substantially. Additionally, an improved restoration pattern of electricity transmission substations across subareas could reduce losses even more.

Lifeline utilities performance in the 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

Abstract Lifelines performed an important role in emergency response and restoring the community after the 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake. Telecommunications, radio, and electronic media played a valuable role in directing emergency response for essential services, directing the repairing of damaged lifelines and informing the public of vital information. Water supply was necessary where available for public fire protection. Highways and roads were used to move rescue, repair, fire, and medical teams and their supplies and equipment to the damaged areas. Although the Northridge earthquake was severe, the lifeline disruption represented a relatively small percentage of inconvenience to the total population served within the total earthquake impact area. The 1994 Northridge event showed improvement in the seismic performance of lifeline facilities and equipment installed and built, under modern seismic codes, since the 1971 San Fernando earthquake.