Life Table Response Experiment Research Articles

Demographic responses to competition with surrounding vegetation in subalpine plant species

Alterations in biotic interactions alongside climatic factors are proposed to affect the extinction risks of alpine and subalpine plant species. We examined the population demography of Primula farinosa along gradients of vegetation coverage to assess how the population viability of high mountain plants would alter in response to changing competitive intensities. Size-based integral projection models were constructed for plots with varying vegetation coverages. Complementary to the demographic survey, the performance of P. farinosa was evaluated in controlled environments when grown with its naturally co-occurring plant, Sanguisorba hakusanensis. In field sites, population growth rates (λ) of P. farinosa declined as surrounding vegetation coverage increased. The means, elasticities, and life-table response experiment (LTRE) contributions of the vital rates also changed, but the alteration patterns depended on the vital rates. Juvenile survival (JS), adult survival (AS), and flowering probability (FP) were lower in plots with denser vegetation while the decrease of AS was not statistically significant. Notably, the elasticity of AS exhibited a positive, whereas the elasticities of JS and FP exhibited negative regression coefficients for vegetative coverage. AS and FP showed more pronounced LTRE contributions in declining λ than JS. Significant reductions in JS and FP were also observed when plants were grown with S. hakusanensis in growth-chamber environments. Both field and chamber studies demonstrated a competitive interaction between P. farinosa and neighboring vegetation, affecting diverse demographic parameters. Altered elasticities would mitigate or exacerbate the impact of decreased mean vital rates on λs in denser vegetation, emphasizing the importance of evaluating both elasticity and the mean of vital rates to predict population persistence under changing biotic interactions.

Redefining 'state-of-the-art' for integrated population models with immigration.

Research Highlight: Christian, M., Oosthuizen, W. C., Bester, M. N., & de Bruyn, P. N. (2024). Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals. Journal of Animal Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14053. Immigration can have profound consequences for local population dynamics and demography, but collecting data to accurately quantifying it is challenging. The recent rise of integrated population models (IPMs) offers an alternative by making it possible to estimate immigration without the need for explicit data, and to quantify its contribution to population dynamics through transient Life Table Response Experiments (tLTREs). Simulation studies have, however, highlighted that this approach can be prone to bias and overestimation. In their new study, Christian etal. address one of the root causes of this issue by improving the estimation of time variation in vital rates and immigration using Gaussian processes in lieu of traditionally used temporal random effects. They demonstrate that IPM-tLTRE frameworks with Gaussian processes produce more accurate and less biased estimates of immigration and its contribution to population dynamics and illustrate the applicability of this approach using a long-term data set on elephant seals (Mirounga leonida). Results are validated with a simulation study and suggest that immigration of breeding females has been central for population recovery of elephant seals despite the species' high female site fidelity. Christian etal. thus present new insights into population regulation of long-lived marine mammals and highlight the potential for using Gaussian process priors in IPMs. They also illustrate a suite of 'best practices' for state-of-the-art IPM-tLTRE analyses and provide an inspirational example for the kind of ecological modelling workflow that can be invaluable not just as a starting point for fellow ecologists picking up or improving their own IPM-tLTRE analyses, but also for teaching and in contexts where model estimates are used for informing management and conservation decision-making.

Life history costs drive the evolution of mycoheterotrophs: Increased sprouting and flowering in a strongly mycoheterotrophic Pyrola species

Abstract Land plants are typically photosynthetic, but some species have lost the ability to photosynthesize, instead relying on mycorrhizal fungi to obtain carbon. Increasing levels of partial mycoheterotrophy, in which seemingly autotrophic plants receive fungal carbon from their fungal partners, and reduced sprouting in concert with greater reproduction when sprouting, may be intermediate steps in the evolution of this trait. We studied the microevolutionary demography of Pyrola japonica and the closely related species P. subaphylla, which are currently considered sister species. While these species are both partially mycoheterotrophic, P. subaphylla is more strongly so, indicating that it may be closer to evolving full mycoheterotrophy. We tracked individuals in two nearby populations in Fukushima, Japan from 2015 to 2020. We analysed vital rates, population trends and long‐run population structure with historical function‐based matrix projection models. We assessed how shifts in P. subaphylla demography relate to fitness using a stochastic life table response experiment (SLTRE). P. subaphylla exhibited strong costs of growth to survival and of reproduction to sprouting, size and fecundity. It sprouted more than P. japonica but to smaller stages. P. subaphylla's flowering frequency was approximately four times that of P. japonica, but after flowering it was smaller and more likely to die. These life history costs appeared to drive differences in fitness, measured as stochastic population growth rate. Relative to P. japonica, shifts in fitness in P. subaphylla were due more to shifts in means than standard deviations of matrix elements. Shifts in growth transitions had the strongest negative impacts on fitness but also had the strongest positive impacts. Increased shifts to small non‐flowering stages were associated with increased fitness, while transitions involving dormancy were associated more strongly with drops in fitness. Synthesis. As far as we are aware, we found the first evidence that costs of growth and reproduction drive the evolution of increased sprouting and smaller size as a species becomes more intensely mycoheterotrophic. Surprisingly, vegetative dormancy did not evolve with mycoheterotrophy. We suggest further studies assessing whether these seemingly maladaptive trends result from genetic drift, genetic linkage or another mechanism.

Nonlinear life table response experiment analysis: Decomposing nonlinear and nonadditive population growth responses to changes in environmental drivers.

Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets. We show that the second-order approach equals or outperforms the linear approach for all three case studies, even when all of the underlying vital rate functions are linear. Nonlinear vital rate responses to driver changes contributed most to population growth rate responses, but life history changes also made substantial contributions. Our results suggest that moving from linear to second-order LTRE analyses could improve our understanding of population responses to changing environments.

Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals.

Identifying important demographic drivers of population dynamics is fundamental for understanding life-history evolution and implementing effective conservation measures. Integrated population models (IPMs) coupled with transient life table response experiments (tLTREs) allow ecologists to quantify the contributions of demographic parameters to observed population change. While IPMs can estimate parameters that are not estimable using any data source alone, for example, immigration, the estimated contribution of such parameters to population change is prone to bias. Currently, it is unclear when robust conclusions can be drawn from them. We sought to understand the drivers of a rebounding southern elephant seal population on Marion Island using the IPM-tLTRE framework, applied to count and mark-recapture data on 9500 female seals over nearly 40 years. Given the uncertainty around IPM-tLTRE estimates of immigration, we also aimed to investigate the utility of simulation and sensitivity analyses as general tools for evaluating the robustness of conclusions obtained in this framework. Using a Bayesian IPM and tLTRE analysis, we quantified the contributions of survival, immigration and population structure to population growth. We assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to choice of multivariate priors on immigration and other vital rates. To do so we make a novel application of Gaussian process priors, in comparison with commonly used shrinkage priors. Using simulation, we assessed our model's ability to estimate the demographic contribution of immigration under different levels of temporal variance in immigration. The tLTRE analysis suggested that adult survival and immigration were the most important drivers of recent population growth. While the contribution of immigration was sensitive to prior choices, the estimate was consistently large. Furthermore, our simulation study validated the importance of immigration by showing that our estimate of its demographic contribution is unlikely to result as a biased overestimate. Our results highlight the connectivity between distant populations of southern elephant seals, illustrating that female dispersal can be important in regulating the abundance of local populations even when natal site fidelity is high. More generally, we demonstrate how robust ecological conclusions may be obtained about immigration from the IPM-tLTRE framework, by combining sensitivity analysis and simulation.

Increased clonal growth in heavily harvested ecosystems failed to rescue ayahuasca lianas from decline in the Peruvian Amazon rainforest

Abstract Increasing harvest and overexploitation of wild plants for non‐timber forest products can significantly affect population dynamics of harvested populations. While the most common approach to assess the effect of harvest and perturbation of vital rates is focused on the long‐term population growth rate, most management strategies are planned and implemented over the short‐term. We developed an integral projection model to investigate the effects of harvest on the demography and the short‐ and long‐term population dynamics of Banisteriopsis caapi in the Peruvian Amazon rainforest. Harvest had no significant effect on the size‐dependent growth of lianas, but survival rates increased with size. Harvest had a significant negative effect on size‐dependent survival where larger lianas experienced greater mortality rates under high harvest pressure than smaller lianas. In the populations under high harvest pressure, survival of smaller lianas was greater than that of populations with low harvest pressure. Harvest had no significant effect on clonal or sexual reproduction, but fertility was size‐dependent. The long‐term population growth rates of B. caapi populations under high harvest pressure were projected to decline at a rate of 1.3% whereas populations with low harvest pressure are expected to increase at 3.2%. However, before reaching equilibrium, over the short‐term, all B. caapi populations were in decline by 26% (high harvested population) and (low harvested population) 20.4% per year. Elasticity patterns were dominated by survival of larger lianas irrespective of harvest treatments. Life table response experiment analyses indicated that high harvest caused the 6% reduction in population growth rates by significantly reducing the survival of large lianas and increasing the survival‐growth of smaller lianas including vegetative reproductive individuals. Synthesis and applications. This study emphasizes how important it is for management strategies for B. caapi lianas experiencing anthropogenic harvest to prioritize the survival of larger size lianas and vegetative reproducing individuals, particularly in increased harvested systems often prone to multiple stressors. From an applied conservation perspective, our findings illustrate the importance of both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses in population growth rates in understanding the population dynamics of lianas in general in response to human‐induced disturbance.

Influence of environmental conditions on population growth and age‐specific vital rates of a long‐lived primate species in two contrasted habitats

AbstractAs wildlife is increasingly affected by environmental change, identifying how vital rates vary with ecological factors is essential to predict the consequences of environmental perturbations on wild population dynamics. We explored the effects of habitat constraints on the demographic and life history patterns of two Barbary macaque (Macaca sylvanus) populations living in two contrasted habitats in Algeria. Using 11 years of field data, we estimated age‐specific survival rates of females and of infants of both sexes, as well as female reproduction rates. We investigated how these vital rates were influenced by both intra‐ and inter‐habitat environmental variations. We parameterized age‐structured female‐only transition matrices and conducted a prospective analysis to estimate the contribution of each vital rate to the populations' asymptotic growth rates (λ). A retrospective analysis (LTRE, Life Table Response Experiment) was also conducted to determine how each vital rate contributed to the observed differences in λ between populations. The macaques exhibited common patterns of survival and reproduction (low rates at young ages, and then high and stable until a decrease at old ages), with first evidence of both actuarial and reproductive senescence. Both populations were growing. In both populations, adult and immature survival had the highest elasticities, and remained stable in changing environmental conditions. By contrast, infant survival and female reproduction had low elasticities, and varied more with environmental variations. As Barbary macaque habitats are increasingly degrading, we provide robust estimates of their vital rates with conservation implications, in particular to predict population responses to anthropogenic perturbations.

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity.

How demographic factors lead to variation or change in growth rates can be investigated using life table response experiments (LTRE) based on structured population models. Traditionally, LTREs focused on decomposing the asymptotic growth rate, but more recently decompositions of annual 'realized' growth rates using 'transient' LTREs have gained in popularity. Transient LTREs have been used particularly to understand how variation in vital rates translate into variation in growth for populations under long-term study. For these, complete population models may be constructed to investigate how temporal variation in environmental drivers affect vital rates. Such investigations have usually come down to estimating covariate coefficients for the effects of environmental variables on vital rates, but formal ways of assessing how they lead to variation in growth rates have been lacking. We extend transient LTREs to further partition the contributions from vital rates into contributions from temporally varying factors that affect them. The decomposition allows one to compare the resultant effect on the growth rate of different environmental factors, as well as density dependence, which may each act via multiple vital rates. We also show how realized growth rates can be decomposed into separate components from environmental and demographic stochasticity. The latter is typically omitted in LTRE analyses. We illustrate these extensions with an integrated population model (IPM) for data from a 26 years study on northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a migratory passerine bird breeding in an agricultural landscape. For this population, consisting of around 50-120 breeding pairs per year, we partition variation in realized growth rates into environmental contributions from temperature, rainfall, population density and unexplained random variation via multiple vital rates, and from demographic stochasticity. The case study suggests that variation in first year survival via the unexplained random component, and adult survival via temperature are two main factors behind environmental variation in growth rates. More than half of the variation in growth rates is suggested to come from demographic stochasticity, demonstrating the importance of this factor for populations of moderate size.

An exact version of Life Table Response Experiment analysis, and the R package exactLTRE

Abstract Matrix population models are frequently built and used by ecologists to analyse demography and elucidate the processes driving population growth or decline. Life Table Response Experiments (LTREs) are comparative analyses that decompose the realized difference or variance in population growth rate () into contributions from the differences or variances in the vital rates (i.e. the matrix elements). Since their introduction, LTREs have been based on approximations and have not included biologically relevant interaction terms. We used the functional analysis of variance framework to derive an exact LTRE method, which calculates the exact response of to the difference or variance in a given vital rate, for all interactions among vital rates—including higher‐order interactions neglected by the classical methods. We used the publicly available COMADRE and COMPADRE databases to perform a meta‐analysis comparing the results of exact and classical LTRE methods. We analysed 186 and 1487 LTREs for animal and plant matrix population models, respectively. We found that the classical methods often had small errors, but that very high errors were possible. Overall error was related to the difference or variance in the matrices being analysed, consistent with the Taylor series basis of the classical method. Neglected interaction terms accounted for most of the errors in fixed design LTRE, highlighting the importance of two‐way interaction terms. For random design LTRE, errors in the contribution terms present in both classical and exact methods were comparable to errors due to neglected interaction terms. In most examples we analysed, evaluating exact contributions up to three‐way interaction terms was sufficient for interpreting 90% or more of the difference or variance in . Relative error, previously used to evaluate the accuracy of classical LTREs, is not a reliable metric of how closely the classical and exact methods agree. Error compensation between estimated contribution terms and neglected contribution terms can lead to low relative error despite faulty biological interpretation. Trade‐offs or negative covariances among matrix elements can lead to high relative error despite accurate biological interpretation. Exact LTRE provides reliable and accurate biological interpretation, and the R package exactLTRE makes the exact method accessible to ecologists.

Immigration as the main driver of population dynamics in a cryptic cetacean.

Empirical evidence about the role and interaction of immigration with local demographic processes in shaping population dynamics is still scarce. This knowledge gap limits our capability to derive a conceptual framework that can be used to inform conservation actions. Populations exposed to nonstationary environment do not converge to a stable stage distribution, implying the need for evaluating the demographic role of both vital rates and stage distribution using appropriate tools. This is particularly important for species with larger generation times like cetaceans. We explored the relative demographic role of vital rates and population structure of a poorly known cetacean, the Mediterranean Cuvier's beaked whale, while accounting for the exposure to nonstationary environments. We performed a retrospective analysis through transient life table response experiments (tLTRE) using demographic rates and population structure of both sexes obtained from an integrated population model. The contribution of immigration to variation in realized population growth rates was 4.2, 7.6, and 12.7 times larger than that of female apparent survival, proportional abundance of breeding females with a 2-year-old calf, and proportional abundance of breeding females with a 3-year-old calf, respectively. Immigration rate and proportional abundance of breeding females with a 2- or 3-year-old calf explained, respectively, 65% and 20% of total temporal variability in realized population growth rates. Changes in realized population growth rate between successive years were mainly driven by changes in immigration and population structure, specifically the proportional abundance of breeding females with a 2-year-old calf. Our study provides insight into the demographic processes that affect population dynamics and in a cryptic cetacean. We presented an analytical approach for maximizing the use of available data through the integration of multiple sources of information for individuals of different distinctiveness levels.

Populations of a tropical epiphytic orchid are destabilized in its peripheral range by hurricane and an exotic herbivore

AbstractIn a time of global change, having an understanding of the nature of biotic and abiotic factors that drive a species' range may be the sharpest tool in the toolbox of conservation and management of threatened species. However, such information are lacking for most tropical and epiphytic species due to the complexity of life history, the roles of stochastic events, and the diversity of habitat across the span of a distribution. In this study, we conducted repeated census across the core and peripheral range of Trichocentrum undulatum, a threatened orchid that is found throughout the island of Cuba (species core range) and southern Florida (the northern peripheral range). We used demographic matrix modeling and stochastic simulations to investigate the impacts of herbivory, hurricanes, and logging (in Cuba) on projected population growth rates (λ and λs) among sites. Our study indicates that the Florida population is under high extinction risk and most populations in the core range show less interannual variability, but, with the exception of one population, are also in decline. The peripheral population experienced higher herbivory damage than did the core populations, by a native inflorescence‐crippling fly, Melanagromyza miamensis, and an invasive, mortality‐triggered scale, Diaspis boisduvalii. The latter was found in the Florida population only. Hurricanes increased levels of mortality and had a negative effect on λ. However, λ increased following hurricane events due to increased recruitment and decreased herbivory. Life table response experiments suggest that higher adult survival was the largest contributor to the higher λ observed in the growing Cuba populations, as compared with the population in Florida. Logging simulations in Cuba indicate that populations can maintain stability only if selective logging of host trees occurs at low frequency. Reintroduction of the species in its northern peripheral habitat is needed to ameliorate the threats from sea‐level rise and invasive herbivorous insects to secure the current species' northern, continental range margin. Our study exhibits how vital rates and ecological interactions vary across a species distribution and respond under differing stochastic events.

Host tree species effects on long-term persistence of epiphytic orchid populations

The destinies of epiphytic orchids (about 70% of all orchids) are linked to their host trees. However, there is little information on if differences in host trees characteristics can affect the long-term persistence of orchid populations, and how this might vary under different climatic conditions. We compared the population dynamics of two epiphytic orchid species, Alamania punicea and Oncidium brachyandrum growing on two host trees with contrasting leaf phenologies: the deciduous Quercus martinezii and the semideciduous Q. rugosa, over 3 years with varying levels of rainfall, in a montane tropical oak forest in Oaxaca, Mexico. Using data from > 500 individuals growing on 63 host trees, we applied linear mixed effects models, Integral Projection Models, and Life Table Response Experiments to identify the effects of host tree on orchid vital rates and population growth rates. For both orchid species, survival and growth did not differ between host species during wettest year. However, during the driest year both vital rates were higher on the semi-deciduous host Q. rugosa than on the deciduous Q. martinezii. Host species did not affect fecundity for A. punicea, but for O. brachyandrum fecundity was higher on the deciduous host. For A. punicea, λ values were similar between hosts during the wettest and intermediate years, but significantly lower (Δ λ = 0.28) on the deciduous than on the semi-deciduous host during the driest year. This was due primarily to lower survival on the deciduous host. For O. brachyandrum, λ was slightly higher (Δ λ = 0.03) on the deciduous than the semideciduous host during the wettest year, due to higher growth and reproduction. However, during the intermediate and driest years, λ values were significantly higher on the semi-deciduous than on the deciduous host (Δ λ = 0.13 and 0.15, respectively). This was due to higher survival and growth. A. punicea populations appear more vulnerable to dry conditions than O. brachyandrum, likely due to its smaller pseudobulbs, and hence lower water-storing capacity. Our results show that host tree species can both influence the vital rates and the long-term dynamics of orchid populations, and these effects vary across orchids species and over time. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining a diversity of host trees to ensure long-term population persistence.

Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird.

Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modelling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or nonbreeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and long-term population changes of British breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in nonbreeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.

Site-specific temporal variation of population dynamics in subalpine endemic plant species

Endemic plants in high mountains are projected to be at high risk because of climate change. Temporal demographic variation is a major factor affecting population viability because plants often occur in small, isolated populations. Because isolated populations tend to exhibit genetic differentiation, analyzing temporal demographic variation in multiple populations is required for the management of high mountain endemic species. We examined the population dynamics of an endemic plant species, Primula farinosa subsp. modesta, in four subalpine sites over six years. Stage-based transition matrices were constructed, and temporal variation in the projected population growth rate (λ) was analyzed using life table response experiments (LTREs). The variation in λ was primarily explained by the site × year interaction rather than the main effects of the site and year. The testing sites exhibited inconsistent patterns in the LTRE contributions of the vital rates to the temporal deviation of λ. However, within sites, growth or stasis had significant negative correlations with temporal λ deviation. Negative correlations among the contributions of vital rates were also detected within the two testing sites, and the removal of the correlations alleviated temporal fluctuations in λ. The response of vital rates to yearly environmental fluctuations reduced the temporal variation of λ. Such effects manifested especially at two sites where plants exhibited higher plasticity than plants at other sites. Site-specific temporal variation implies that populations of high mountain species likely exhibit asynchronous temporal changes, and multiple sites need to be evaluated for their conservation.

Temporal change in the contribution of immigration to population growth in a wild seabird experiencing rapid population decline

The source–sink paradigm predicts that populations in poorer‐quality habitats (‘sinks') persist due to continued immigration from more‐productive areas (‘sources'). However, this categorisation of populations assumes that habitat quality is fixed through time. Globally, we are in an era of wide‐spread habitat degradation, and consequently there is a pressing need to examine dispersal dynamics in relation to local population change. We used an integrated population model to quantify immigration dynamics in a long‐lived colonial seabird, the black‐legged kittiwakeRissa tridactyla, that is classified as globally ‘Vulnerable'. We then used a transient life table response experiment to evaluate the contribution of temporal variation in vital rates, immigration rates and population structure to realised population growth. Finally, we used a simulation analysis to examine the importance of immigration to population dynamics. We show that the contribution of immigration changed as the population declined. This study demonstrates that immigration is unlikely to maintain vulnerable sink populations indefinitely, emphasising the need for temporal analyses of dispersal to identify shifts that may have dramatic consequences for population viability.

Incorporating temporal dynamics to enhance grazing management outcomes for a long‐lived species

Abstract Identifying successful management strategies for long‐lived species is challenging, especially in fluctuating environments, because the response of individual vital rates and overall growth rates to management action can vary over time. A demographic approach that isolates the impact of management and environment on individual vital rates, and assesses their importance for growth rate over time, can indicate whether and why a management strategy is successful. Here we take a demographic approach to assess the success of grazing management for the perennial grass Stipa pulchra, California's state grass and a focus on conservation efforts. We tracked S. pulchra populations in paired grazed and ungrazed plots over 6 years, which included a historic drought and an El Niño rain year, and calculated summary transition matrices for the main effects of year, grazing and year × grazing interaction for each site. We averaged these summary transition matrices to calculate population growth rates, λ, for the main effects of year, grazing and year × grazing and used life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis to compare how individual vital rates contributed to differences in λ between grazed and ungrazed plots over time. Overall we found that grazing was a successful management strategy; grazed populations maintained a positive average population growth rate whereas ungrazed populations declined. We found that grazing had a larger positive effect on growth rates in wet years than drought years. This was because grazed populations benefited from a greater contribution of adult growth immediately following the end of the drought compared with ungrazed populations and from adult survival thereafter. Synthesis and applications. Although Stipa pulchra is the focus of many management efforts, the use of grazing for management is contentious, and there have been few studies that take a demographic approach to understanding S. pulchra responses over time. Our results indicate that conservation and restoration efforts should move beyond recruitment to focus on adult growth and survival for overall population success. To this end, moderate grazing can be a successful strategy to maintain S. pulchra populations and is particularly important in wet years to promote plant growth.

Harvesting has variable effects on demographic rates and population growth across three dry forest tree species

AbstractUnderstanding how anthropogenic activities, such as harvesting, influence plant populations is important to quantify sustainable practices that conserve species of socioeconomic importance. There is limited knowledge on how harvesting of branches and non‐timber forest products affect populations of trees in the dry tropics. We measure demographic vital rates of three dry tropical tree species in the presence and absence of harvesting and apply integral projection models to quantify population growth rates, which represent the mean fitness across the life cycle. Our results show that the three species vary in their demographic rates and life history. Harvesting significantly decreases the growth of two species. Current levels of harvesting only significantly decreased the population growth rate of one species that experienced both branch and main stem harvesting. Life table response experiments reveal that the negative effect of harvesting on the population growth rate of this species is primarily due to individuals being forced to re‐sprout from their base. Few individuals were observed recruiting from seed, and this might be due to the presence of other threats, such as fire, soil erosion, and grazing. Our results provide knowledge on the demography and the effects of harvesting on endemic tree species of the Eastern Ghats, a region for which few demographic studies are available. These results are relevant to conserving forest biodiversity for the benefits of people and can contribute to quantitative threat assessment for IUCN red listing.

Searching for the causes of decline in the Dutch population of European Turtle Doves (Streptopelia turtur)

European Turtle Doves Streptopelia turtur have experienced a sharp decline in population numbers over past decades. Much uncertainty exists about the main cause or causes. Several pressures have been suggested, but because they affect different stages of the life cycle of the Turtle Dove, it is difficult to compare their contributions to the population decline. Here we applied a full life cycle approach to study how different pressures may have resulted in the decline. This was achieved by combining a review of existing literature on possible threats, pressures and the vital rates they concerned, with the analysis of an age‐structured matrix model. The population model was parameterized using estimates from a mark–recapture analysis and supplemented with vital rate estimates from the literature. Comparison with a Life Table Response Experiment (LTRE) was used to determine whether the Turtle Dove literature focuses on those vital rates in which the most important changes have taken place over time. The population model projected a similar decline to that observed in population counts. The LTRE analysis showed that declines in the number of clutches (halved since the 1960s) and in juvenile survival (relative annual rate of change of –1.33% since the 1950s) contributed most to the decline in the projected population growth rate. Although these vital rates are often reported as possible causes of population decline, the reviewed studies often focused on specific reproductive stages, such as egg survival or nestling survival, which did not show a large temporal change. Thus, there is a partial mismatch between our modelling results and the focus in the literature. Juvenile survival is thought to be affected by hunting, degradation of wintering habitat and infection with Trichomonas gallinae, and loss of foraging habitat seems to affect the number of clutches. The focus of conservation measures should therefore be on these threats and pressures. The first steps have already been taken with the completion of the international single species action plan for the conservation of the Turtle Dove and the implementation of the first conservation measures on the breeding grounds.

Demographic performance of a pioneer tree species during ecological restoration in the soil erosion area of southeastern China

Pioneer species are crucial for the ecological restoration of degraded forests, but what drives variation in their demographic performance is still unclear. Here, we studied three populations of the dominant tree, Pinus massoniana , corresponding to three levels (low, medium, high) of ecological restoration of secondary subtropical forests. Vital rates (growth, survival, and reproduction) were censused during 2019–2020, and integral projection models (IPMs) were parameterized to evaluate the population growth rate (λ) of P. massoniana . The results showed that the survival probability of large-sized individuals, stem growth, and λ of P. massoniana increased as the ecological restoration progressed. In contrast, the survival rate of seedlings declined substantially. The reproduction probability of small individuals was more likely at low than medium/high restoration levels. Elasticity analysis showed that survival contributes most to λ and fecundity the least. λ was primarily determined by the high survival of seedlings/small trees and large trees in the low- and high-restoration level populations, respectively. Life table response experiments showed that increases in survival were mostly responsible for augmented λ during ecological restoration; hence, the high-restoration population had the highest λ due to a higher survival rate. This work shows P. massoniana is capable of undergoing life-history strategy shifts. Its high recruitment and survival of small individuals make it a suitable species for restoring forests, whereby large-sized individuals eventually maintain populations at low risk of mortality.

Population dynamics and comparative demographics in sympatric populations of the round‐leaved orchids Platanthera macrophylla and P. orbiculata

AbstractOrchids (Orchidaceae) are a family of flowering plants with a high proportion of threatened taxa making them an important focus of plant conservation. Orchid conservation efforts are most effective when informed by reliable demographic research. We utilized transition matrix models to examine the population dynamics and demography within sympatric populations of a species pair of terrestrial round‐leaved orchids, Platanthera macrophylla and P. orbiculata. The models were parameterized from a large data set spanning 9 years from field observations of over 1,000 orchids. Life table response experiments (LTRE) were used to identify which life history transitions, and which vital rates within those transitions, most contributed to observed differences between the two species and most contributed to interannual variation within each species. Results from mean transition matrices projected finite rates of population growth that were not significantly different between the two species, with P. macrophylla near the replacement rate and P. orbiculata below it. LTRE revealed that the difference in population growth rates between the two species was mostly due to differences in fecundity (flowering adult to protocorm transition) driven by differences in fruit set and seed germination into protocorm, which were much greater for P. macrophylla. The two primary contributors to interannual variation in population growth rates for both orchids were adult survival and fruit set, respectively. These findings indicate that any environmental disturbances harming adult survival or fecundity will have a disproportionately negative effect on the orchid populations.