Life Table Response Experiment Analysis Research Articles

Nonlinear life table response experiment analysis: Decomposing nonlinear and nonadditive population growth responses to changes in environmental drivers.

Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets. We show that the second-order approach equals or outperforms the linear approach for all three case studies, even when all of the underlying vital rate functions are linear. Nonlinear vital rate responses to driver changes contributed most to population growth rate responses, but life history changes also made substantial contributions. Our results suggest that moving from linear to second-order LTRE analyses could improve our understanding of population responses to changing environments.

Increased clonal growth in heavily harvested ecosystems failed to rescue ayahuasca lianas from decline in the Peruvian Amazon rainforest

Abstract Increasing harvest and overexploitation of wild plants for non‐timber forest products can significantly affect population dynamics of harvested populations. While the most common approach to assess the effect of harvest and perturbation of vital rates is focused on the long‐term population growth rate, most management strategies are planned and implemented over the short‐term. We developed an integral projection model to investigate the effects of harvest on the demography and the short‐ and long‐term population dynamics of Banisteriopsis caapi in the Peruvian Amazon rainforest. Harvest had no significant effect on the size‐dependent growth of lianas, but survival rates increased with size. Harvest had a significant negative effect on size‐dependent survival where larger lianas experienced greater mortality rates under high harvest pressure than smaller lianas. In the populations under high harvest pressure, survival of smaller lianas was greater than that of populations with low harvest pressure. Harvest had no significant effect on clonal or sexual reproduction, but fertility was size‐dependent. The long‐term population growth rates of B. caapi populations under high harvest pressure were projected to decline at a rate of 1.3% whereas populations with low harvest pressure are expected to increase at 3.2%. However, before reaching equilibrium, over the short‐term, all B. caapi populations were in decline by 26% (high harvested population) and (low harvested population) 20.4% per year. Elasticity patterns were dominated by survival of larger lianas irrespective of harvest treatments. Life table response experiment analyses indicated that high harvest caused the 6% reduction in population growth rates by significantly reducing the survival of large lianas and increasing the survival‐growth of smaller lianas including vegetative reproductive individuals. Synthesis and applications. This study emphasizes how important it is for management strategies for B. caapi lianas experiencing anthropogenic harvest to prioritize the survival of larger size lianas and vegetative reproducing individuals, particularly in increased harvested systems often prone to multiple stressors. From an applied conservation perspective, our findings illustrate the importance of both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses in population growth rates in understanding the population dynamics of lianas in general in response to human‐induced disturbance.

Searching for the causes of decline in the Dutch population of European Turtle Doves (Streptopelia turtur)

European Turtle Doves Streptopelia turtur have experienced a sharp decline in population numbers over past decades. Much uncertainty exists about the main cause or causes. Several pressures have been suggested, but because they affect different stages of the life cycle of the Turtle Dove, it is difficult to compare their contributions to the population decline. Here we applied a full life cycle approach to study how different pressures may have resulted in the decline. This was achieved by combining a review of existing literature on possible threats, pressures and the vital rates they concerned, with the analysis of an age‐structured matrix model. The population model was parameterized using estimates from a mark–recapture analysis and supplemented with vital rate estimates from the literature. Comparison with a Life Table Response Experiment (LTRE) was used to determine whether the Turtle Dove literature focuses on those vital rates in which the most important changes have taken place over time. The population model projected a similar decline to that observed in population counts. The LTRE analysis showed that declines in the number of clutches (halved since the 1960s) and in juvenile survival (relative annual rate of change of –1.33% since the 1950s) contributed most to the decline in the projected population growth rate. Although these vital rates are often reported as possible causes of population decline, the reviewed studies often focused on specific reproductive stages, such as egg survival or nestling survival, which did not show a large temporal change. Thus, there is a partial mismatch between our modelling results and the focus in the literature. Juvenile survival is thought to be affected by hunting, degradation of wintering habitat and infection with Trichomonas gallinae, and loss of foraging habitat seems to affect the number of clutches. The focus of conservation measures should therefore be on these threats and pressures. The first steps have already been taken with the completion of the international single species action plan for the conservation of the Turtle Dove and the implementation of the first conservation measures on the breeding grounds.

Breeding transients in capture\u2013recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

Seedling maturation drives spatial variability in demographic dynamics of an invader with multiple introductions: insights from an LTRE analysis

Multiple introductions are hypothesized to facilitate the success of invasive plant species, because they can result in novel genotypes through intraspecific hybridization potentially increasing the ability to adapt to the novel environment. In this study, we address the question of how the demography of an invader with multiple introductions and intraspecific hybridization varies across sites. This was done by modeling the population dynamics of Brazilian pepper, Schinus terebinthifolia Raddi (Anacardiaceae), a shrub native to Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina that has invaded the global subtropics and was introduced to Florida on two separate occasions. This species exhibits variability in growth form such that vertical and lateral growth are not strongly associated. Our demographic field work took place at six sites spanning the introduced range in Florida and differing in introduction history. For each site we constructed integral projection models where the probabilities of survival, growth and reproduction were modeled as functions of two different metrics of size, the continuous variables diameter and height, metrics of vertical and lateral growth, respectively. We performed a Life Table Response Experiment analysis to decompose the effects of variation among sites in vital rates on the population dynamics of S. terebinthifolia. We found that spatial variation in population dynamics was driven primarily by site-level differences in the maturation of seedlings into reproductive adults. The survival and growth of the largest individuals had the highest elasticity, suggesting that management actions capable of decreasing these vital rates would have the greatest effect on reducing the population growth rate.

Contrasting size-dependent life history strategies of an insular lizard.

In many species with continuous growth, body size is an important driver of life-history tactics and its relative importance is thought to reflect the spatio-temporal variability of selective pressures. We developed a deterministic size-dependent integral projection model for 3 insular neighboring lizard populations with contrasting adult body sizes to investigate how size-related selective pressures can influence lizard life-history tactics. For each population, we broke down differences in population growth rates into contributions from size-dependent body growth, survival, and fecundity. A life table response experiment (LTRE) was used to compare the population dynamics of the 3 populations and quantify the contributions of intrinsic demographic coefficients of each population to the population growth rate (λ). Perturbation analyses revealed that the largest adults contributed the most to the population growth rate, but this was not true in the population with the smallest adults and size-independent fertility. Although we were not able to identify a single factor responsible for this difference, the combination of the demographic model on a continuous trait coupled with an LTRE analysis revealed how individuals from sister populations of the same species follow different life strategies and showed different compensatory mechanisms among survival, individual body growth, and fertility. Our results indicate that body size can play a contrasting role even in closely-related and closely-spaced populations.

Transient LTRE analysis reveals the demographic and trait-mediated processes that buffer population growth.

Temporal variation in environmental conditions affects population growth directly via its impact on vital rates, and indirectly through induced variation in demographic structure and phenotypic trait distributions. We currently know very little about how these processes jointly mediate population responses to their environment. To address this gap, we develop a general transient life table response experiment (LTRE) which partitions the contributions to population growth arising from variation in (1) survival and reproduction, (2) demographic structure, (3) trait values and (4) climatic drivers. We apply the LTRE to a population of yellow‐bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to demonstrate the impact of demographic and trait‐mediated processes. Our analysis provides a new perspective on demographic buffering, which may be a more subtle phenomena than is currently assumed. The new LTRE framework presents opportunities to improve our understanding of how trait variation influences population dynamics and adaptation in stochastic environments.

Demographic Changes Underpinning the Population Decline of StarlingsSturnus vulgarisin The Netherlands

Declines in farmland bird populations are often linked to changes in agricultural practices, but little is known about the demographic changes underlying these adverse trends. Identifying the demographic drivers of population change is critical for understanding why populations are declining. In this study we assessed the demographic changes in the declining Dutch Starling Sturnus vulgaris population. We estimated productivity per breeding attempt and survival rates over a period of 52 years (1960–2012). The results show that juvenile survival decreased significantly over time. Adult survival fluctuated between years, with (non-significant) lower survival rates between 1990 and 2012. No trend in reproductive output was found over the study period. A population model was built for three different phases of population change within the study period: 1960–1978, 1978–1990 and 1990–2012. The contribution of changes in demographic parameters to population growth rate (lambda) between the different periods was examined by performing a life table response experiment (LTRE). The LTRE analysis showed that changes in juvenile survival explained most of the differences in population growth rate between periods. Our results therefore suggest that a decline in juvenile survival rather than changes in adult survival or reproductive success is the most important cause of the decline of the Starling population in The Netherlands.

Small‐scale spatial and temporal variation in the demographic processes underlying the large‐scale decline of eiders in the Baltic Sea

AbstractThe application of uniform conservation schemes often fails to account for small‐scale spatial variation in the drivers of population decline. Demographic comparisons of imperilled populations across locations are therefore crucial for successful conservation, but progress is hampered by lack of long‐term data from more than a single population. The recent large‐scale decline of eider ducks (Somateria mollissima) in the Baltic Sea is ideal for determining to what extent mechanisms underlying population decline can be extrapolated over larger areas. We utilized stochastic demographic methods incorporating both environmental and sampling variation to assess small‐scale spatial and temporal variation in the population dynamics of eiders at Söderskär (eastern range‐margin) and Tvärminne (core breeding area), situated 130 km apart. The stochastic growth rate models accurately predicted the observed differences in the rate of decline between sites and time periods. At Söderskär, established breeder survival had by far the greatest elasticity, whereas elasticity was more evenly distributed among vital rates at Tvärminne. Although the study sites showed the single largest difference in fecundity, stochastic life table response experiment analyses revealed that reduced adult female survival at Tvärminne mainly determined the observed difference in growth rates between sites. In contrast, reduced fecundity primarily differentiated the past population increase from the present population decline at Söderskär. Our results demonstrate that different mechanisms may be associated with population decline across adjacent geographic locations, and indicate that dispersal of first‐time breeders may be important for population dynamics. Safeguarding adult female survival and/or fecundity should be prioritized in management efforts.

Forest Fragmentation Alters the Population Dynamics of a Late‐successional Tropical Tree

AbstractTropical late‐successional tree species are at high risk of local extinction due to habitat loss and fragmentation. Population‐growth rates in fragmented populations are predicted to decline as a result of reduced fecundity, survival and growth. We examined the demographic effects of habitat fragmentation by comparing the population dynamics of the late‐successional tree Poulsenia armata (Moraceae) in southern Mexico between a continuous forest and several forest fragments using integral projection models (IPMs) during 2010–2012. Forest fragmentation did not lead to differences in population density and even resulted in a higher population‐growth rate (λ) in fragments compared to continuous forests. Habitat fragmentation had drastic effects on the dynamics of P. armata, causing the population structure to shift toward smaller sizes. Fragmented populations experienced a significant decrease in juvenile survival and growth compared to unaltered populations. Adult survival and growth made the greatest relative contributions to λ in both habitat types during 2011–2012. However, the relative importance of juvenile survival and growth to λ was highest in the fragmented forest in 2010–2011. Our Life Table Response Experiment analysis revealed that positive contributions of adult fecundity explained most of the variation of λ between both habitats and annual periods. Finally, P. armata has a relatively slow speed of recovery after disturbances, compromising persistence of fragmented populations. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how forest fragmentation affects plant population dynamics, as done here, will prove essential for the preservation of natural areas.

A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics and persistence

1. Genetic restoration has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression in small, inbred populations, but the demographic mechanisms underlying population-level responses to genetic restoration remain poorly understood. 2. We studied the dynamics and persistence of the endangered Florida panther Puma concolor coryi population and evaluated the potential influence of genetic restoration on population growth and persistence parameters. As part of the genetic restoration programme, eight female Texas pumas P. c. stanleyana were released into Florida panther habitat in southern Florida in 1995. 3. The overall asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 1.04 (5th and 95th percentiles: 0.95-1.14), suggesting an increase in the panther population of approximately 4% per year. Considering the effects of environmental and demographic stochasticities and density-dependence, the probability that the population will fall below 10 panthers within 100 years was 0.072 (0-0.606). 4. Our results suggest that the population would have declined at 5% per year (λ = 0.95; 0.83-1.08) in the absence of genetic restoration. Retrospective life table response experiment analysis revealed that the positive effect of genetic restoration on survival of kittens was primarily responsible for the substantial growth of the panther population that would otherwise have been declining. 5. For comparative purposes, we also estimated probability of quasi-extinction under two scenarios - implementation of genetic restoration and no genetic restoration initiative - using the estimated abundance of panthers in 1995, the year genetic restoration was initiated. Assuming no density-dependence, the probability that the panther population would fall below 10 panthers by 2010 was 0.098 (0.002-0.332) for the restoration scenario and 0.445 (0.032-0.944) for the no restoration scenario, providing further evidence that the panther population would have faced a substantially higher risk of extinction if the genetic restoration initiative had not been implemented. 6. Our results, along with those reporting increases in population size and improvements in biomedical correlates of inbreeding depression, provide strong evidence that genetic restoration substantially contributed to the observed increases in the Florida panther population.

The triple helix of Plantago lanceolata: Genetics and the environment interact to determine population dynamics

The theory of evolution via natural selection predicts that the genetic composition of wild populations changes over time in response to the environment. Different genotypes should exhibit different demographic patterns, but genetic variation in demography is often impossible to separate from environmental variation. Here, we asked if genetic variation is important in determining demographic patterns. We answer this question using a long-term field experiment combined with general linear modeling of deterministic population growth rates (lambda), deterministic life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis, and stochastic simulation of demography by paternal lineage in a short-lived perennial plant, Plantago lanceolata, in which we replicated genotypes across four cohorts using a standard breeding design. General linear modeling showed that growth rate varied significantly with year, spatial block, and sire. In LTRE analysis of all cohorts, the strongest influences on growth rate were from year x spatial block, and cohort x year x spatial block interactions. In analysis of genetics vs. temporal environmental variation, the strongest impacts on growth rate were from year and year x sire. Finally, stochastic simulation suggested different genetic composition among cohorts after 100 years, and different population growth rates when genetic differences were accounted for than when they were not. We argue that genetic variation, genotype x environment interactions, natural selection, and cohort effects should be better integrated into population ecological studies, as these processes should result in deviations from projected deterministic and stochastic population parameters.

Demography of a dormancy-prone geophyte: influence of spatial scale on interpretation of dynamics

Both temporal and spatial scales are important in the evaluation of population dynamics, but the latter often receives less attention in demographic analyses. We used a 5-year demographic data set for a long-lived geophyte, Calochortus lyallii, to investigate the pattern and components of spatial variation at two scales (population and microsite). We found that neither the projected population structure nor asymptotic population growth rate (λ) varied greatly across either scale, although the underlying contributors to the variation in λ, V(λ), did differ between scales. Life table response experiment analyses showed that V(λ) among populations came primarily from variation in seedling survival and progression of non-reproductive plants, whereas V(λ) among microsites was primarily due to the variable fertility of large adults. Prolonged dormancy was important in reducing V(λ) among quadrats at both the scales, partly countering fluctuations in other transitions such as recruitment. This result represents some of the first evidence that underground “bulb banks” could function to offset the effects of a spatially heterogeneous environment in a manner analogous to seed banks. Future work is needed to isolate the specific, sometimes idiosyncratic, life history phenomena acting to modulate plant population dynamics in a spatial context.

Demography of the demosponge Amphimedon compressa: Evaluation of the importance of sexual versus asexual recruitment to its population dynamics

We used size-based population matrix models to describe the demography of the demosponge Amphimedon compressa. The relative importance of growth, survivorship, and recruitment to population growth (λ) was assessed by performing elasticity and life table response experiment (LTRE) analyses. We also evaluated the relative contribution of sexual and asexual recruitment to λ by analyzing four different scenarios: (1) the combined impact of sexual and asexual recruitment, (2) the impact of only sexual recruits, (3) the impact of only asexual fragmentation, and (4) the impact of no recruitment. Size-based transition matrices were parameterized with field data collected at two sites in the southwest coast of Puerto Rico: Media Luna West (MLW), a reef exposed to high water movement and at Las Pelotas (LP), a reef experiencing low water motion. Estimated λ of 0.8940 and 0.7973 at MLW and LP respectively suggest that both populations are declining. Elasticity analysis indicated that survivorship may be the most important contributor to λ at both sites. However, λ at MLW was influenced more by the survivorship of small individuals whereas survivorship of the large size-class contributed the most to λ at LP. LTRE analysis indicates that the difference in λ between sites was mostly due to difference in survivorship of small sponges. At both sites, λ decreased considerably when sexual recruitment was excluded from the model whereas the absence of asexual recruitment barely changed λ. Therefore, it is suggested that sexual recruitment plays a major role (in comparison to asexual fragmentation) in the population dynamics of this sponge at the studied sites. We conclude that spatial variability in water motion plays an important role in population dynamics of A. compressa by influencing survivorship patterns, including the relative contribution of asexual and sexual recruitment to population growth.

Stochastic LTRE analysis of the effects of herbivory on the population dynamics of a perennial grassland herb

Herbivores can have strong deleterious effects on vital rates (growth, reproduction, and survival) and thus negatively impact the population dynamics of plant species. In practice, however, these effects might be strongly correlated, for example as a result of tradeoffs between vital rates. To get better insights into the effects of herbivory on the population dynamics of the long‐lived grassland plant Primula veris population projection matrices were constructed from demographic data collected between 1999 and 2008 (nine annual transitions). Data were collected in two large grassland populations, each of which was subjected to two treatments (grazing by cattle versus a mowing treatment), yielding a total of 36 matrices. We applied a lower‐level vital rate life table response experiment (LTRE) using the small noise approximation (SNA) of the stochastic population growth rate to disentangle the contributions of changes in mean vital rates, variability in vital rates, correlations between vital rates and vital rate elasticities to the difference in the stochastic growth rate. Stochastic growth rates (a= log λS) were significantly lower in grazed than in mown plots (a= 0.0185 and 0.1019, respectively). SNA LTRE analysis showed that contributions of mean vital rates by far made the largest contribution to the observed difference in a between grazed and control plots. In particular, changes in sexual reproduction rates made the largest contributions to lower the stochastic growth rate in grazed plots: both adult flowering probabilities and flower and seed production were importantly lower in grazed populations, but these negative effects were largely buffered by increased establishment and seedling survival rates. Among the stochastic terms of the SNA decomposition, contributions of covariance and correlations between vital rates had the largest impact, whereas contributions of elasticities were smaller. The strongest correlation driver was the association between adult survival and seedling establishment, suggesting that environmental conditions favouring adult survival also are beneficial for seedling establishment. Overall, our results show that herbivory had a strong negative effect on the long‐term population growth rate of P. veris that was primarily mediated by differences in fecundity (flower and seed production) and germination.

What do matrix population models reveal about the sustainability of non-timber forest product harvest?

Summary 1. Understanding how management activities impact plant population dynamics is necessary to conserve at-risk species, control invasive species and sustainably harvest non-timber forest products (NTFP). For NTFP, knowledge about how the sustainability of harvest varies by plant life-form and part harvested is limited and needed to inform management of the thousands of species providing income to millions of people world-wide. 2. Matrix population models are commonly used to generate management recommendations. We reviewed studies of 46 NTFP species that used matrix models and synthesize the current knowledge on harvest effects. For 19 species with harvested and control populations, we assessed the impacts of harvest on projected population growth rates (k) using meta-analysis and analysed trends in population responses to harvest across species, life-forms and plant part harvested using elasticity and life table response experiment (LTRE) analyses, and the combination of both, to assess vulnerability to harvest. 3. NTFP harvest significantly reduced k across species. On the scale of individual studies, however, k provided little information about harvest sustainability unless replication was sufficiently high. Most studies had low levels of replication over space or time and did not include contrasting levels of harvest. 4. Whole-plant harvest of herbs and bark harvest from trees were not sustainable largely because of decreases in survival. Palm leaf or fruit harvest and rattan stem harvest were potentially sustainable. Combined elasticity–LTRE analysis was especially valuable in assessing the sustainability of harvest when differences in k between harvested and control populations were small, for studies with limited replicates, and where harvest effects varied regionally. 5. Synthesis and applications. The use of matrix models to assess the impacts of NTFP harvest is still rare in regions where trade of wild plants is heaviest and for several commonly harvested life-forms. Given the high variance in estimates for most NTFP species,k does not provide a precise assessment of harvest impacts. We recommend that managers consider the combined elasticity–LTRE analysis in addition tok in making management decisions for NTFP. NTFP research that accounts for environmental drivers of population dynamics in addition to harvest should be prioritized.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Contrasting Population Dynamics of the Endemic New Caledonian Conifer Araucaria laubenfelsii in Maquis and Rain Forest

ABSTRACTThis study compares demographic parameters and population dynamics for high disturbance (maquis) and low disturbance (rain forest) environments of the montane conifer, Araucaria laubenfelsii, in New Caledonia. The establishment, growth, survival and reproduction of ca 2500 individuals were followed in permanent plots over 10 yr. Growth and survival rates for A. laubenfelsii show that it is a long‐lived, slow growing tree, with evidence of suppression in the sapling size classes in mature rain forest. Growth rates for all size classes are generally faster in maquis than rain forest. Transition matrix analyses estimated positive rates of population increase (λ values>1), with populations expanding in maquis, and stable in mature forest. Araucaria laubenfelsii is able to regenerate continuously in maquis and early successional rain forest, but recruitment is limited in older stands. Life table response experiment analyses showed that reproduction, and transitions from sapling to mature tree stage, contributed positively to λ in maquis, but negatively in forest. Araucaria laubenfelsii on Mont Do can be considered a long‐lived pioneer, with early maquis colonizers helping to drive succession from maquis to forest. While opportunities for recruitment decline with time as rain forest sites develop a closed canopy, occasional gap phase recruitment, combined with disturbance by cyclones, landslides and fire, provide opportunities to ensure species persistence. Understanding contrasting population dynamics of A. laubenfelsii in maquis and rain forest will better facilitate conservation management of this species, particularly given current high rates of land conversion and degradation in New Caledonia.Abstract in French is available at http://www.blackwell‐synergy.com/loi/btp

Interactions between local climate and grazing determine the population dynamics of the small herb Viola biflora

Plants of low stature may benefit from the presence of large herbivores through removal of tall competitive neighbours and increased light availability. Accordingly, removal of grazers has been predicted to disfavour small species. In addition to this indirect beneficial effect, the population dynamics of plants is strongly influenced by variation in external conditions such as temperature and precipitation. However, few studies have examined the interaction between large herbivores and inter-annual variation in climate for the population dynamics of small plant species not preferred by herbivores. We studied three populations of the perennial herb Viola biflora exposed to different sheep densities (high, low and zero) for 6 years in a field experiment. Plants were also impacted by invertebrate and small vertebrate herbivores (rodents). Rates of growth were marginally higher at high sheep densities, and during warm summers both survival and growth were higher when sheep were present. Thus, while the height of tall herbs was positively related to July temperature, it was less so in the treatments with sheep, suggesting that sheep reduce the negative effects of interspecific competition for this small herb. Life table response experiment analyses revealed that the population growth rate (lambda) was slightly lower in the absence of sheep, but between-year variation in lambda was larger than variation among sheep density treatments. lambda was negatively related to July temperature, with an additional negative effect of vertebrate grazing frequency (sheep or rodent grazing). The evidence from this 6-year study suggests that the population dynamics of Viola biflora is determined by a complex interplay between climate and grazing by both large and small herbivores.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture–recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001–2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004–2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in λ in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log λs, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log λs ≈ − 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with “business as usual” (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.