Life Expectancy Figures Research Articles

The (Im)precision of Life Expectancy Numbers.

Life expectancy figures for countries and population segments are increasingly being reported to more decimal places and used as indicators of the strengths or failings of countries' health and social systems. Reports seldom quantify their intrinsic statistical imprecision or the age-specific numbers of deaths that determine them. The SE formulas available to compute imprecision are all model based. This note adds a more intuitive data-based SE method and extends the jackknife to the analysis of event rates more generally. It also describes the relationships between the magnitude of the SE and the numbers of person-years and deaths on which it is based. These relationships can help quantify the statistical noise present in published year-to-year differences in life expectancies, as well as in same-year differences between or within countries. Agencies and investigators are encouraged to use one of these SEs to report the imprecision of life expectancy numbers and to tailor the number of decimal places accordingly. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(8):1151-1160. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306805).

The role of modified Glasgow prognostic score in prognosing the life expectancy figures of osteosarcoma patient at general hospital H. Adam Malik

Introduction: Osteosarcoma is a malignant neoplasm originating from poorly differentiated cells in the metaphyseal area long bones of children, with a 5-year survival rate below 20%. The evaluation of patient?s prognosis with osteosarcoma using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) determine the albumin and C-Reactive Protein values to assess inflammation of a tissue. The mGPS scores are 0,1,2 with the higher the score the worse the prognosis. Researchers want to know the role of mGPS in osteosarcoma patients and the prognosis of life expectancy in a general hospital. Material and Method: A retrospective cohort study with a population of osteosarcoma patients at General Hospital H. Adam Malik Medan, which was examined for albumin and C-Reactive Protein (CRP). Using the total sampling method, patients? data was obtained through hospital medical records from January 2012 to December 2017 and a mGPS assessment (0,1,2) was recorded. Then a follow-up was carried out recording patients who were found to survive at >2 years and >5 years. Results: There were 34 patients, of which 26(76%) were male and 8(24%) were female. With the highest age group in the 2nd decade (n=20, 59%) followed by the 3rd decade (n=6, 17%) and the 1st decade (n=5, 15%). The predilection for tumor location was often the same in the distal femur and proximal tibia (n=12, 35%) followed by the proximal humerus (n=5, 15%), and proximal femur (n=4, 12%). Meanwhile, the number of patients based on the mGPS 0-2 value was overal the same (n=11-12, 32-36%). In the 2-year survival rate group (p=0.033), there were 9 (45.0%), 7 (35.0%), and 4 (20.0%) patients with mGPS scores of 0, 1, and 2. Meanwhile, there were 5 (71.4%), 2 (28.6%), and 0 (0.0%) patients with mGPS scores of 0, 1 and 2 in the 5-year survival rate group (p=0.009). Conclusion: Based on the results of data analysis, it was found that there was a significant relationship (p <0.05) between the mGPS assessment and the patient's life expectancy in 2 years and 5 years.

Pengaruh Pendidikan, Angka Harapan Hidup, Dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Negara Dengan Jumlah Penduduk Terbesar Di Dunia

The purpose of this study was to test the influence of primary school education, life expectancy, and population on economic growth. This study used panel data method with samples in 5 countries with the largest population in the world in 2015-2019. The results showed that elementary school education has a positive effect on economic growth. Life expectancy figures show a positive influence on economic growth. As well as the population has a positive effect on economic growth.

Hubungan Usia Demensia Dan Kemampuan Fungsional Pada Lansia

Abstract: Age, Dementia, Functional Ability, The Elderly. Increased life expectancy figures and the high cost of care for the elderly with dementia was associated with decreased functional ability to know how dependent elderly people in their daily activities. To determine the relationship of age, dementia and functional ability in the elderly. The study design was a descriptive study with observational analytic method with cross sectional study, done in parlors Wredha Dharma Bhakti Surakarta with 32 elderly subjects who met the inclusion criteria, age range 61-85 years. Dementia is measured using the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and functional ability with Groningen Activity Restriction Scale (GARS). The results of statistical tests test the relationship (1) between age and dementia, p = 0.099 and r = - 0.297, meaning no meaningful relationship, negative and weak between the two variables. (2) between age and functional abilities, p = 0.000 and r = 0.699, which means that there is a meaningful relationship, positive and strong between the two variables. (3) between dementia with functional ability, p = 0.002 and r = - 0.535, meaning that there is a meaningful relationship, negative and strong between the two variables. there is no relationship of age on dementia but there is a strong relationship between age and functional ability and dementia of the functional ability of the elderly. Mean age was not linear with the increase in the incidence of dementia, but age and dementia are the root causes deterioration of functional ability in the elderly. Physiotherapy with various modalities that exist, can play a role to help maintain the functional capability of the elderly so that the slogan of healthy aging can be realized.

Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of Japan: the fastest graying society in the world.

BackgroundWe appraised time trends of Japanese life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) by gender, LE-HALE and (LE-HALE)/LE figures, along with the women–men’s differences.MethodsUsing the Japanese LE and HALE values from 1990 through 2013 by gender in the article by the GBD 2013 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, we examined trends of LE and HALE, and their 5- or 3-year changes. We also probed LE-HALE and (LE-HALE)/LE values, and the women–men’s differences.ResultsLE consistently elongated as reported 76.0, 76.5, 77.6, 78.7, 79.3 and 80.1 years for men from 1990 to 2013; and 82.0, 82.8, 84.3, 85.5, 86.1 and 86.4 years for women, respectively. Both time trends demonstrated a significant linear increase (p for trend < 0.001). LE changes were 0.4, 1.1, 1.1, 0.7 and 0.7 years for men, and 0.9, 1.5, 1.2, 0.6 and 0.3 years for women. The trends were statistically significant (p < 0.001), except for 2010–2013 partly due to 3-year interval. HALE also steadily lengthened as seen 68.1, 68.4, 69.1, 69.9, 70.8 and 71.1 years for men from 1990 through 2013; and 72.2, 72.9, 74.0, 74.8, 75.4 and 75.6 years for women. Both time trends showed almost a linear increase (p < 0.05). HALE changes were 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 0.9 and 0.3 years for men, and 0.7, 1.0, 0.8, 0.6 and 0.2 years for women, without statistical significant trends. LE-HALE values were 8.0, 8.0, 8.5, 8.8, 8.6 and 8.9 years for men; and 9.7, 9.9, 10.4, 10.7, 10.7 and 10.8 years for women. (LE-HALE)/LE figures were 10.5, 10.5, 10.9, 11.1, 10.8 and 11.2% for men, and 11.9, 12.0, 12.3, 12.5, 12.4 and 12.5% for women. LE women–men’s differences were 5.9, 6.4, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8 and 6.3 years, and the HALE figures were 4.2, 4.5, 4.9, 4.9, 4.6 and 4.5 years.ConclusionsLE and HALE consistently linearly elongated for both sexes over the study period. Not only LE-HALE but also (LE-HALE)/LE values were still growing for both sexes. Public health measures, nursing-care/services as well as social security schemes are called for to further elevate longevities, HALE in particular, and enhance quality of life and well-being.

Life Expectancy in Germany Based on the 2011 Census: Was the Healthy Migrant Effect Merely an Artefact?

The Federal Statistical Office’s 2010/12 general life table is the first to provide results on life expectancy based on census data for reunified Germany. This article therefore examines the question of how the revisions of the population figures from the 2011 census affected the measured life expectancy. To do so, we analysed both the official life tables based on the old intercensal population updates before the census and those based on the population data from the 2011 census. The method used to calculate the census-adjusted 2010/12 general life table was also transferred to separate life tables drawn up for the German and the foreign population. In this way, findings on the so-called “healthy migrant effect” can be discussed, ruling out possible errors in the intercensal population updates. These errors had previously been cited as the main causes for a distinctly longer life expectancy among the foreign population compared with the German population. As expected, a census-based calculation for the total population and for the German population resulted in only minor revisions to the life expectancy figures. The use of the census results does, however, distinctly alter the life expectancy of foreign women and men. An advantage of over 5 years in life expectancy at birth, measured on the basis of the old population data, needs to be revised to about 2.9 years for men and 2.1 years for women based on the 2011 census. The healthy migrant effect therefore cannot be traced back solely to data artefacts from the old intercensal population updates – even with revised data, the foreign population shows marked survival advantages.

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

Determining optimal first-line chemotherapy for good and intermediate prognosis testicular germ cell tumors using decision analysis.

209 Background: Since 80-90% of testicular germ cell tumors (GCTs) are cured after first line therapy alone, minimizing toxicity should be an important consideration in the initial treatment decision between cisplatin and carboplatin. Cisplatin has been shown to be superior in 5-year disease-free survival, but cisplatin use confers a higher risk of key long-term toxicities. This study aims to quantify this trade-off between disease-free survival and toxicities using decision analysis. Methods: We developed a mathematical decision-analytic model that simulates competing strategies of initial treatment with cisplatin or carboplatin in terms of treatment response, long-term toxicity, and mortality associated with first, second, and third line therapies for patients with good and intermediate prognosis testicular GCTs and a median age of 20 years at diagnosis. Treatment toxicities included ototoxicity, neurotoxicity, and nephrotoxicity. Monthly probabilities were weighted means derived from a systematic review of total follow-up data reported in seminal clinical trials. The model projected life expectancies for each strategy. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of uncertain inputs and assumptions. Results: The life expectancies at diagnosis for cisplatin and carboplatin strategies were 436.1 months (36.3 years) and 663.2 months (55.3 years) respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed life expectancy figures largely dependent on the risk of nephrotoxicity occurrence from first line therapy and death from nephrotoxicity. Unless these base monthly probabilities were reduced by 87% and 99% respectively, carboplatin consistently yielded higher life expectancy than cisplatin. Conclusions: Under the current model, first line carboplatin therapy yields longer life expectancy than cisplatin, but this difference is highly sensitive to variables concerning nephrotoxicity. These preliminary results suggest that first line carboplatin therapy could yield higher life expectancy, though this result may be mediated by inclusion of other factors in future analyses, including updated estimates of mortality from nephrotoxicity or other toxicities.

Évaluation des pratiques préventives d’une consultation de médecine générale hospitalière

Background Preventive measures are available for most of the pathological conditions causing premature mortality in France. Moreover, there is a seven-year discrepancy in life expectancy figures between persons in the least favorable socio-occupational categories and the rest of the general population. The overall target of our study was to analyze preventive practices applied as part of routine primary care in the outpatient clinics of a general medicine hospital in Paris (Hotel-Dieu) where the majority of patients belong to unfavorable social categories. Methods We collected and analyzed the content of all outpatient visits conducted during a three-week period using a questionnaire designed to gather information about areas of preventive care requiring particular attention. Results Analysis of 211 outpatients visits shows that the population concerned was young (44 ± 17-year-old) and that the visits lasted longer than commonly observed (21 ± 8 min). Cancer screening was performed in 25 to 50% of the theoretical targeted population. Addictions were discussed during half of the visits, yet follow-up and advice on how to stop addictive behavior were insufficient. Blood pressure was measured during half of the visits. Vaccinations were checked for 60% of patients and STD status for 30%. Seventy percent of the patients stated they wanted to attend a preventive care consultation; the physician considered this type of consultation would be useful for 30% of patients; the opinions were in disagreement for half of the patients. Lack of time, heavy workload in terms of number of visits, and the current setup of charts prevented updating various precautionary measures, which would have been appropriate for each patient as a function of age, gender, past history and lifestyle. Conclusion This inquiry highlights many weaknesses in our preventive practices. Delegating some medical acts, a more adapted medical file and the implementation of dedicated consultations could help improve prevention in this particularly vulnerable population. The key to success of such measures lies in physician and patient awareness.

Birth Seasonality in Present-Day Italy, 1993–2005

Over the last century, Italy has undergone a dramatic change in its demographic regime. The high-pressure demographic system of the beginning of the twentieth century high fertility, high mortality has been replaced by a low-pressure system low fertility, low mortality although relatively recently in comparison to other Western European countries. Today, Italy has very low levels of fertility while life expectancy figures are amongst the highest in the world (Golini et al. 2000). The striking change in the demographic behaviour of Italians has generally been ascribed to the rapid social progress and economic development that occurred in Italy after the end of the Second World War.

Longterm incidence of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment and survival in a defined population undergoing standardized phacoemulsification surgery

To determine the longterm risk of pseudophakic retinal detachment (PRD) in a defined population undergoing standardized phacoemulsification surgery at a single centre. We carried out a register-based, retrospective, consecutive, uncontrolled study. All 6352 eyes that underwent cataract surgery at our institution during the years 1996-1998 were included in the study. The main outcome measure was the incidence of surgery for PRD. Cataract-operated eyes were identified by a search in the local hospital registry. Eyes that subsequently underwent surgery for PRD were identified by a search in the Danish Patients Registry (LPR). Follow-up ended by 31 December 2003. Eyes in patients who died before that date were censored. The 8-year cumulated incidence of PRD after phacoemulsification was 0.93 per eye (95% CI 0.65-1.33). This is 8.77 (95% CI 7.12-10.72) times higher than expected in eyes that do not undergo cataract surgery. The incidence rate for retinal detachment was significantly higher in pseudophakic eyes than in the background population for at least 6 years after surgery. Patient mortality was slightly increased for men, but no different for women from that of the background population. For eyes undergoing phacoemulsification surgery, the cumulated incidence of PRD continues to increase for at least 8 years after surgery. Comparison of the cumulated incidence of PRD between different studies requires equal lengths of follow-up.

The Decline of Life. Old Age in Eighteenth-Century England by Susannah R. Ottaway

329 cords and novels provide Ms. Joseph a ‘‘window into the processes through which colonial rulers produced their categories of self-understanding and knowledge of the other.’’ Ms. Joseph concludes that both English literature and the colonial archive deployed the figure of woman to facilitate ‘‘the ruses and deployments of colonial power.’’ The claim hinges on extensive archival research and brilliant, intertextual, close readings of disparate bureaucratic records and literary narratives . Representations of woman can ‘‘be read as metonyms of significant historical changes.’’ For instance, Ms. Joseph argues, that in the 1720s, Defoe employed the sexual odyssey of his protagonist , Roxana, to critique English colonialism and as well as England’s commercial relations to Holland. At roughly the same time, Francis Hastings, the president of the East India Company, heavily fined an English employee for raping an Indian woman. Hastings’s action was driven more by his desire to secure his own control of the Company, Ms. Joseph argues, than it was by a commitment to justice for colonial women. Ms. Joseph carefully places her argument in relation to canonical figures in postcolonial literary and cultural studies. Yet she largely overlooks the fact that her central question—how can one read for historical ‘‘fact’’ in archives shaped by the interests and fantasy of the colonizer—has been at the heart of the subaltern studies project in Indian historiography for over two decades. Partha Chatterjee’s and Dipesh Chakrabarty’s critical analysis of the archive and of women’s place in national history in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries would constitute an important additional context . Previews of each chapter explain the significance of Ms. Joseph’s claims. These are, for the most part, unnecessary ; the material and the readings can stand on their own. The book would have profited if its explanatory apparatus were reduced and Ms. Joseph filled the space with her acute readings of the archive. For example, Ms. Joseph contends that while Indian women’s names were left out of birth records of the children they bore with British men, these women were frequently listed as heirs to property in the wills of Company employees. She presents this ‘‘unevenness’’as a window into the contradictions and secrets of colonialism. However, she says nothing more about those fascinating wills. At other times, the evidence Ms. Joseph provides seems insufficient for her farreaching claims. She asserts, based on one quick example (the Indian reformer Rammohun Roy), that the local elite— the bhadralok class—continued the strategic and colonial deployment of women and Indian culture. This important argument demands more evidence and space than the seven-page final section of the final chapter. Leah Reade Rosenberg University of Florida SUSANNAH R. OTTAWAY. The Decline of Life. Old Age in Eighteenth-Century England. Cambridge: Cambridge, 2004. Pp. xiv ⫹ 322. $70. From the vantage point of the social legislation that began in the nineteenth century, we tend to see the eighteenth century as a harsh and unforgiving era. As the old system of parish relief broke down, with nothing to replace it, the poor were neglected and the very young and very old left to fend for themselves if they had no family. Ms. Ottaway’s ex- 330 cellent book complicates this narrative and shows that the elderly had much more agency than has been credited to them. She reconstructs the lives of older men and women. Particularly engaging are the many vignettes she offers, drawn from letters, diaries, and literary sources, of individual lives. Wills and parish records also give glimpses of the lower orders . These stories leaven the book’s use of statistical data, such as that from the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure. Some of Ms. Ottaway’s conclusions are surprising. There were more elderly (defined generally as over-60) people in the eighteenth century than we might expect ; she points out that life-expectancy figures were heavily skewed by high infant and child mortality; if you survived to 30, you could reasonably expect to live 30 or 40 more years. Productive members of society, these people generally maintained their autonomy as long as possible. Retirement did not become a common concept until the end...

Making inter-country comparison of life expectancy inequality sensitive

Two populations with the sameoverall longevity but different age andage-specific-mortality profiles may produce avariety of differences in terms of issues thatare relevant for development policy. A simplemethod of comparing countries has beensuggested in this paper, which is sensitive tosome of these differences that are usuallyhidden under life expectancy figures. In theprocess, some of the recent attempts inadjusting life expectancy for `inequality' havebeen critically examined.

A QALY-based societal health statistic for Canada, 1985

This paper assesses the appropriateness of QALYs (quality adjusted life years) as a foundation for an index of societal health, and the feasibility of using such an index to guide health care policy. Results of this paper suggest that the standard aggregate QALY index imposes an ethical position on policy makers which may promote inequality in well-being associated with health. It is possible to rectify this problem in theory, but current data are insufficient to estimate such corrected indices. A QALY-based index, constructed using the best available data, indicates morbidity has a significant effect on Canadian health status (e.g. life expectancy figures alone overstate community health by about 10%), that the impact of morbidity is unequal across regions and gender, and that role (the ability to fulfil social functions) and mobility dysfunction are important determinants of ill-health in this population.

RCN concerned over low life expectancy figures for Scottish women.

News that Scotland's women have the lowest life expectancy in western Europe has been deplored by the Royal College of Nursing.

Les disparités géographiques de la mortalité en Italie 1951-1981

Geographical Disparities of Mortality in Italy 1951-1981. This paper analyses the evolution of mortality in the Italian regions from 1951 to 1981. The mortality risk has always been higher in the regions of Northern Italy in comparison with the Southern and insular regions. This would be in particular due to a higher level of industrialization and socio-economic development which lead to an increase in degenerative mortality causes bound to pollution, a bad food intake, stress, etc. and generally to negative consequences of habits and conditions of modern life. As for female mortality, if the influence of infant mortality is not taken into account, it is observed that from 1950-1952, there have been no significant differences between the mortality rates of the Northern and Southern regions. Besides the regional variability exerts no significant influence on mortality. This lack of geographical differentiation of mortality has been confirmed in process of time and territorial differences between life expectancy figures tend to diminish yet.

Demography in Early America: Beginnings of the Statistical Mind, 1600-1800

We now take for granted that the statistical treatment of social and scientific affairs can yield important insights. In this book, Dr. Cassedy, from the History of Medicine Division of the National Library of Medicine, describes the introduction of vital statistics in the United States before 1800. In quick progression he discusses the role of numbers in the religious and secular affairs of the early colonists, the census, bills of mortality, life expectancy figures, and the statistical approach to disease. The growth of colonial America, Cassedy concludes, coincided with the emergence of new statistical concepts in Europe. Without much lag-time these early statistical activities also found application in the thinking of Americans. Even so, by the end of the book, one must still conclude, as Cassedy does, that two centuries of statistical activities had not really brought Americans very far beyond a simple quantitative way of looking at things. The