Libyan Crisis Research Articles

The Use Of System Theory In National System With Reference To The Behaviour Of Any Country In Crisis: (A Study Of Libya)

Considering the development of an all-inclusive and abstract theory as unattainable by empirical methods, political scientists have adopted the limited perspective of systems theory. The Political Systems Theory according to Easton’s Model Analysis represents interdisciplinary nature of modern political science (Jones 1977). System concepts make empirical and comparative study possible; even of those political institutions, apart from the states, such as international political system, city political party, etc. This wider and in-depth perspective of system approach is suitable to look into the Libyan crisis. The work is going to analyze the political behaviour of Libya based on the four major components of System theory; Demands and Supports as “Inputs”, decisions on Demands and Supports as “Outputs”, application of policy as “Outcomes”, and response to new policy as “Feedback” (Lambert 1968). Lastly, we observe the break down and dysfunction of the Libyan political system that has brought social unrest. The study analysis covers the political system under Muammar Gaddafi’s regime

Was R2P Doomed to Fail?

This paper explores the origins of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle within the contemporary history of armed humanitarian intervention. By reviewing legal and political scholarship surrounding the concept of R2P and its application, this paper uses a constructivist lens to argue that R2P failed to be adopted as a principle of customary international law due to its normative and legal ambiguity. This paper concludes with a critical examination of R2P's first, and likely final, invocation during the Libyan crisis of 2011.

The Macroeconomic Effect of Oil Sector Crisis in Libya

This paper analyses and investigates the impact of the oil sector crisis on the Libyan economy from 2012 Q4 to 2022 Q3, using the Bai-Perron model and a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). The findings demonstrate that the multiple structural breaks test statistics approved that nearly all of the study's variables had a structural break at years around political division and political agreement. In contrast to inflation, the results of the impulse response functions (IRFs) indicate that the shock to oil revenue had a considerable negative impact on the money supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, the study reveals that, with the exception of claims on the government with the central bank, shocks to oil revenue are the major contributors to variance decomposition for all variables. The results reveal that oil revenue, in particular, accounts for roughly 16%, 13%, and 16% of the variance decomposition of the money supply, exchange rate, and inflation rate, respectively. As a result, the oil sector crisis is a controlling factor in the explanation of variations in these variables. The study concluded that oil sector revenues have a sensitive impact on the Libyan economy and that the latter has a strong tide with a secure environment and political stability.

A Problem as Colonial Legacy Northern Mali and Azawad

Mali has been experiencing a long period of instability in the security context due to terrorist activities, civil wars, and coups in the region. The turmoil following the Libyan crisis, the military coup in Mali, and the subsequent coups in West Africa have created favorable conditions for the proliferation and attacks of groups armed for different purposes. This brings to mind the current position of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), which rebelled in 2012 under the leadership of the Tuaregs, emerged as an armed movement in the northern regions of the country and declared its independence from Mali. Contrary to popular belief, the Tuareg-led armed insurgency in the northern regions is as old as the post-colonial Malian state. The recent crisis in the Sahel region is one of the most serious since the end of the Cold War, with dire long-term implications for the region's security. This article aims to provide a clearer understanding of the past and present of the crisis by examining various parameters on a historical plane that considers the Tuareg's persistent rebellion against Bamako. For this reason, it will first examine the political conjuncture in post-colonial and independent Mali, and then discuss the roots of the Azawad conflict and the potential threats it poses in today's political environment.

Libyan Crisis 2014-2018: The Conflict of the Internal Political and Social Forces and the Failure of the Political Solution

Objectives: The study aims to analyze the impact of the state of conflict and lack of harmony between the internal Libyan political and social forces, on the continuity and development of the Libyan crisis 2014-2018, and the failure of all political initiatives proposed to solve it. Methods: The subject was studied through the analytical descriptive approach based on analyzing the data and statements issued by the active forces in the course of the crisis, and its alignment with the reality of the course of events . Results: The study showed that the main factor in the continuity and the development of the Libyan crisis is related, in the first place, to the rejection of all the internal Libyan conflict forces, specially the Islamic and liberal ones of all the proposed political agreement attempts, and the endeavor of each of them to monopolize power and exclude the other, and the rejection of the principle of polititical pluralism. Conclusions: The Libyan crisis 2014-2018 was formed by what Libya inherited after the 2011 revolution, embodied by a weak authority that was unable to impose state sovereignty on all parts of the country, This led to the ignition of conflict between all internal political and social Libyan forces and the spread of civil war. The intervention of greedy foreign powers, especially the European power, helped in its development. They were looking forward to dominating Libyan wealth.

Structural Dynamics of Network Frames in the Context of the Legitimacy Crisis in Libyan Jamahiriya (based on the Internet comments)

The article deals with the English Internet comments viewed as non-professional political discourse of everyday network communication. In these comments the videos on the legitimacy crisis in Libya in the early 2010s are discussed. Considering the array of commentary texts as a conceptual system, we study the non-professional political discourse related to the Libyan crisis in terms of frame analysis. Since the consequences of this crisis are felt in the world politics to this day, the users keep commenting on it regularly, it makes it possible to study the dynamics of the conceptual discursive structures. For the purpose we chose frames as mental models that allow us to study linguistic consciousness by dividing texts into fragments reflecting the accumulated knowledge and experience of a person about stereotypical situations. Frame modeling is carried out with the help of the FrameNet frame base. Variants of frame models constructed through the analysis of the network discursive material, are called network frames. The study of comments relating to different periods of time allows us to identify the dynamics of the changes in the structure and content of the key frames that describe the legitimacy crisis in Libya.

Role of Process Legality in Norm Contestation: Rise and Fall of Human Protection

Contestations on a norm sometimes weaken the consensus on the norm, while other times strengthen it. The literature demonstrates that legal norms are more resilient in the face of contestations. This study argues that regardless of the norm’s legal nature, the use of legal language and argumentation in the contestation processes increases the norm’s resilience by facilitating a renewed agreement on the norm’s validity. The evolution of the human protection norm, which regulates the international use of force for humanitarian purposes, is examined through comparative discourse analysis of two contestation periods in Kosovo (1998–1999) and Libya (2011–2013) interventions. While the legal nature of contestations after the Kosovo crisis revealed the inadequacies of the humanitarian intervention framework and led to the development of a stronger consensus under the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), non-legal contestations following the Libya crisis did not yield constructive outcomes and ended with practical disappearance of R2P as a basis of military intervention. The article concludes that the concept of process legality has explanatory power for enlightening the contradicting consequences of norm contestations, as well as a potential for guiding the methods of norm proponents.

The Impact of the Internationalization of the Libyan Crisis on the Future of the Political Settlement

The internationalization of the Libyan crisis and its accompanying militarization of the conflict have played a vital role in hindering to reach a comprehensive political settlement solution in Libya. The increasing international greediness in the Libyan energy resources and the geopolitical importance of the Libyan State led to the involvement of many international and regional powers in this crisis and transformed the Libyan crisis into “proxy war”. Moreover, the Turkish direct military intervention in the Libyan crisis is considered as one of the main constraints facing the international and regional efforts to settle the Libyan crisis as a result of the Turkish insistence on its military existence in Libya to preserve its national interests in Eastern Mediterranean. So, the scenario of the continuing dispute over the legitimacy between the Libyan factions and the transformation of the Libyan crisis into a geopolitical dilemma, will be the closest to reality.

NATO’s and Russian involvement in the Libyan Crisis in a view of the Post-Cold War Realism vs. Humanitarianism

The study investigates NATO’s and Russian involvement in the Libyan crisis by evaluating their actions from realist and humanitarian perspectives. There have been numerous studies portraying Middle East conflicts as great power confrontations and the mere pursuit of geopolitical interests. The study counters these explanations by analyzing the actions of the US, European powers, and Russia, and demonstrates how there were specific cases during which they acted in a humanitarian manner, while at other times they acted as realist powers. The study proves that when all three powers pursued humanitarian objectives, it led to a prompt collective action. However, when one or more of them pursued realist objectives, it led to a prolongation of the conflict. Nevertheless, when NATO powers (the US and European states) acted on humanitarian motives and Russia refrained from actively pursuing realist interests, collective action was still possible. Furthermore, even when all powers pursued realist motives, collective action was possible as those motives did not collide. The study implies that the application of R2P as a newly emerging form of international law might be possible elsewhere given that certain conditions are met.

신흥 강대국의 규범적 저항 전술들

How do emerging powers attempt normative resistance to influence normative changes in the international order? By viewing emerging powers as agents of productive normative change, this study aims to examine how China as an emerging power influences the normative change of the responsibility to protect through an in-depth case study of its normative resistance tactics to the norm. For this analysis, this article first reviews related theoretical discussions and presents a theoretical framework for analysis. Then, focusing on the three important periods in the process of normative development of the responsibility to protect (the process of introducing and institutionalizing the norm from 2000 to 2005, the process of implementing the norm after the 2005 World Summit (2005-2011), and the process of implementing the norm in the 2011 Libyan crisis and thereafter), it analyzes which normative resistance tactics China has used to influence the process of change and implementation of the norm. For this analysis, an empirical case study is conducted, including text analysis of China's statements and speeches as well as meeting records and resolutions related to the responsibility to protect at the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly. Based on the analysis results, this article discusses the implications for the debate on the role and influence of emerging powers in the normative change of international order.

PERSONALITAS ANGELA MERKEL DALAM UPAYA JERMAN MENGAKHIRI KRISIS LIBYA

Germany was one of the countries that actively pursued peace for Libya. The achievement of peace in Libya by Germany was carried out to overcome the surge in the number of refugees from the Middle East to Europe via the Mediterranean crossing. Angela Merkel's persistence in achieving peace in Libya was demonstrated by the holding of a series of peace processes known as the Berlin Process. This foreign policy cannot be separated from the influence of Angela Merkel as one of the policy-making units of the German government. Angela Merkel's role in ending the Libyan crisis is one of the next steps to rebuilding Libya. Commitments from external stakeholders influencing the conflict in Libya were successfully achieved at the Berlin Conference for Libya, a ceasefire agreement was reached, the Government of National Unity was confirmed, and the second Berlin Conference for Libya was held. Responding to this phenomenon, this study questions the role of Merkel's personality in Libya's peace efforts. In order to answer this question, the author uses a foreign policy analysis framework that identifies the relationship between the personality of the leader and the foreign policy taken. This study finds that Libya's peace efforts are a manifestation of Angela Merkel's dominant personality, namely the conciliator type and the participatory orientation.

The Tribal Factor in the Peaceful Settlement of the Libyan Crisis

The research is focused on the tribal issue as a leading factor of the Libyan political life in the context of the current negotiation process. Particular attention should be paid to the activities of the Warfalla Libyan Tribal Public Council and the Tuareg Council of Elders. These representative institutions have been calling for many years for the end of the turmoil, focusing on the traditional Islamic category of fitnah. It confirms that the Libyan crisis cannot be solved outside the country and that foreign interference is detrimental to the interests of the Libyan people. The category of 'asabiyyah or social solidarity is of paramount importance in this case. Nevertheless, it is not necessarily an attribute of a traditional nomadic or tribal community and is not based solely on kinship. However, this term often has a negative connotation, since it denotes a radical cohesion to a particular group, which forms a distinctive family-clan relationship. The Libyan tribes play a prominent role in maintaining political balance, combating terrorist groups, and maintaining the level of security by the support to political leaders who claims to consolidate Libya again. This paper distances from the destabilizing manifestations of intertribal relations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to define the role of the Arabic- and Berber-speaking tribes of the three constituent regions in Libya: Cyrenaica, Tripolitania, and Fezzan in de-escalating the conflict, aimed at restoring Libyan statehood and holding parliamentary and presidential elections.

The Economics of “Long War” in Libya: How Politics Define the Economy in the Libyan Crisis (2011–2017)

The paper, based on the study of the Libyan crisis in the 2010s, reveals the characteristics of the interdependence of political and economic transformations that took place under the influence of the systemic weakening of state institutions and foreign military and political intervention of NATO countries because of the Arab Spring and the February 2011 revolution in Libya. Examples of mutual influence of the processes of political and economic fragmentation and decentralization in the conditions of dynamic transformation of a prolonged military-political crisis characterized by multiple splits and multi-level structure of conflicts are presented. The impact of the identified factors on the formation and development of the humanitarian crisis in the country is described.

The Libyan crisis as a challenge to the EU CSDP: the US position

The Libyan crisis as a challenge to the EU CSDP: the US position

RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THE LIBYAN CRISIS: A NEOCLASSICAL REALIST ASSESSMENT

The processes taking place in the modern international system are both a catalyst and a consequence of the foreign policy of states. As a result of a number of systemic factors and the domestic political situation in Russia, the Middle East plays an important role on the Russian agenda. Moscow is pursuing an active policy towards the Libyan crisis, which resulted in the actual loss of statehood in Libya, which complicates the stabilization of the situation in the country and in the region. The purpose of this article is to analyze the systemic (independent variable) and domestic (intervening unit-level variables) processes that influence the formation of Russia’s foreign policy in relation to the Libyan crisis, within the framework of the neoclassical realist theory. The significance of this study lies in the application of a relatively new theoretical approach (neoclassical realism) to a case study (the Libyan crisis) in the study of Russian foreign policy.

السياسة الخارجية الفرنسية تجاه الازمة الليبية

After the fall of Gaddafi, France sought to direct its foreign policy towards Libya through a set of tools, including the political and diplomatic tool, the military tool and the economic tool as a means to secure its influence and interests under the new Libyan regime. Keywords: The Libyan crisis, France, Libya.

Conflicts Of Interest over the Libyan Crisis and Its Impact on the National Security of Armenia

The Arab Spring, a chain of anti-government protests and uprisings, had major implications throughout the Middle East region and it particularly affected oil-rich countries, including Libya. Libya is the largest holder of proven oil reserves in Africa (48 billion barrels). Before 2011, Libya’s oil production averaged about 1.64 million barrels per day, about 96% of the government’s revenue, which accounted for 60-65% of the country’s GDP. During the reign of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya’s oil industry was run by the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), which was responsible for implementing Exploration and Production Sharing Agreements (EPSA) with international oil companies (IOCs). Among these international oil companies were ENI (Italy), Total (France), Repsol (Spain), OMV (Austria) and Equinor (Norway). Colonel Muammar Qaddafi was not considered to be a reliable partner for the above-mentioned international oil companies. He used to demand tough contract terms, frequently raised fees and taxes and made other restrictions. This policy was in stark contrast with the interests of foreign actors, especially a number of Mediterranean European states, which led to their active participation in Libyan politics with the desire to gain a greater share of oil production and increase their influence in Africa. The main struggle over Libya is for control over oil resources which are highly necessary for a number of external actors in order to ensure the dynamic development of their economies and strengthen their geopolitical position but which are also needed by regional actors to ensure their own security. From the point of view of global governance, each actor in this conflict is trying to implement its global agenda by having political control and a military presence in Libya. The main aim of this study is to analyze the conflict of interests between local, regional and international actors over the Libyan issue, which, undoubtedly, affects the policy of these forces towards our region, and to understand how these developments in a country “far from” Armenia can influence the Republic of Armenia’s national security and foreign policies.

The role of Algerian diplomacy in the Libyan crisis: Objectives and obstacles

This article aims to analyse the position of Algerian diplomacy with regard to the Libyan crisis and the attempts to resolve this fratricidal conflict, which has become an economic and security burden for Algeria. Where, the Libyan crisis, due to the proximity of this country to Algeria, has become a source of threats and protean (security) risks, a fortiori terrorism. It should be noted that Algeria's diplomatic approach is based on a "political solution" to the Libyan crisis, which consists of banning any form of foreign intervention, especially military. This approach has come up against the complexity of the Libyan reality and its regional and international ramifications. In this article, we address the following elements - the evolution of the Algerian diplomatic position towards the Libyan crisis since 2011; - the nature of the Algerian diplomatic preoccupation towards the Libyan crisis. We will also try to analyse the deeper issue of the balance between the moral (or principled) dimension versus strategic interests of Algerian diplomacy in the Libyan crisis. Finally, we will try to provide a prospective vision of the possible future paths of Algerian mediation in the Libyan crisis.

A Role to Play for Interest Groups in EU Foreign and Security Policy: The Case of Migration Focused EU - Libya Policies

Following the fall of Gaddafi, Libya has fallen apart, and this vast and resource-rich country with around 1,800 km coastline to the southern side of the central Mediterranean has become a failed state. The crisis stemming from Libya has significant impact on the EU: Not only for irregular migration but also due to its security, economic and geopolitical importance to EU. Despite this multifaceted significance, EU Libya poli- cies have been focusing on the migration dimension of the crisis and making use of non-functioning Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions as the primary policy tool. That is why the EU missed the oppor- tunity to solve the crisis from an early age and has been sidelined with the escalating conflict. In the absence of EU, rival international actors took over the Libya dossier and started to shape the developments per their interests. If the EU does not take lessons from previous mistakes, it will soon lose its influence over Libya, which might turn out to be quite detrimental for its interests. As this is a multifaceted and multi-dimensional web of relations, the policy paper at hand focuses explicitly on the “migration” dimension and makes infer- ences based on this narrower scope. Interest Groups (IGs) are prominent actors in the migration dimension of the Libya crisis. This policy paper depicts that there are at least 738 IGs concerned with European or global level migration & asylum policies, and they have had hundreds of interactions with members of the EU Commission and Parliament. IGs have been spending money, energy and other resources to influence the EU policies in this field. However, up to now, just like EU Libya policies, their efforts on migration-related problems stemming from Libya has failed. Following a comprehensive description of the current status of migration dimension of EU Libya policies together with the role of various IGs, this policy brief examines the causes of (in)effectiveness of IGs’ efforts in influencing EU policies. It argues that public salience, internal security concerns of the member states and highly politicised nature of the migration issue makes it difficult for IGs to be influence. Irregular migration is not a matter on its own; it is a consequence of a causal link. In solving the issue, the EU needs a multifaceted approach, which considers IGs an integral partner and utilises IGs soft power, knowledge and expertise to increase the EU’s leverage. The policy paper at hand recommends EU and IGs to develop a partnership model which requires coordi- nation and assistance in Libya matters, without damaging the neutral interlocutor position of the IGs. This new model foresees IG support in handling IDPs, refugees/irregular migrants, training and monitoring of the Libyan officials, or in reporting about the humanitarian aspects. Requires EU to utilise IGs in addressing the sources of grievances between local ethnic, tribal and religious groups, or facilitating the truth-seeking ven- tures and repairing the relations between rival groups. IGs can support EU policies by providing mentorship to sovereign economic, financial, auditing institutions or misfunctioning judiciary, public health or education institutions. EU should benefit from IGs in the prevention of radicalisation/extremism, as well. For the sake of preventing the emergence of several and conflicting member state Libya policies, EU su- pranational bodies should lead to the process vis á vis overall EU interests. To save IGs from the complex power-sharing structure, European External Action Service should undertake the one single coordinator role with IGs. EU officials should encourage or —if need be— stipulate Libyan authorities to cooperate with IGs in their operations for Libya. EU may consider using military CSDP operations or EU battlegroup to protect the peace process from spoilers or destructive foreign meddling or defend the governing institutions from the impact of various militia groups and enforce the arms embargo. EU should also activate a competent sanctions policy against the spoilers of the process. Another crucial task for the EU will be the construction of a unified and reliable security apparatus. IGs can build the support that the EU requires on the ground. EU requirements overlap with IGs interests; they both need to construct a thriving society, inclusive politics, and good governance, which will make Libya a hard-to-find neighbour/ally to the EU.

The attitude of the Russian Diplomacy towards the Western countries' intervention in the Libyan civil confrontation in 2011

The article analyzes the position of Russian diplomacy in relation to the interventionist policy of Western countries in Libya during the deployment of the confrontation in this country in 2011. The object of the study is the policy of the Russian Federation in the Middle East during the active phase of the «Arab Spring» (2011). The subject of the study is the evolution of the Kremlin's position regarding the intervention of Western countries in the internal affairs of the Middle East (on Libya's example). The main purpose of the work is to study the interventionism of the collective West during the internal political crisis in Libya in 2011 as the main factor that influenced the change in the nature of Moscow's Middle East policy as a whole. The presented research is carried out using general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, and is also based on the principles of historicism and scientific objectivity. In the course of the study, the author attempts to reflect the objective reasons for the refusal of the Russian Federation from formally following the general policy of Western countries in relation to the «Arab Spring» and the transition to an independent political course in the Middle East, based primarily on the national interests of the Russian state. Special attention is paid to the comparative analysis of the positions of representatives of the Russian political elite in relation to the operation «Unified Protector» conducted in Libya.