Liberalization Scenarios Research Articles

Trade policy analysis in Brazil: Assessing welfare impacts with revised Armington elasticities

Evaluating the impacts of trade policy through simulation can offer valuable insights, especially for developing countries still confronting significant trade barriers. However, the credibility of these insights might be compromised if the simulations depend on parameters derived from developed economies or are constrained by ad-hoc assumptions within the literature. To quantify these implications, we focus on Brazil as a case study, utilizing a Melitz-style model that facilitates sector-specific estimation of both an upper-tier “home-foreign” macroelasticity and a lower-tier “foreign-foreign” microelasticity. While 66%–77% of microelasticities surpass macroelasticities, the precision falls short in confirming the “rule of two” — the assumption that the microelasticity is twice the macroelasticity. In a simulated trade liberalization scenario, our findings show that welfare changes fall below those of models adhering to this rule, yet exceed those of approaches overlooking differentiation between the two elasticities. Furthermore, incorporating imperfect factor mobility results in more moderated predictions for welfare outcomes.

An Empirical Study on Efficient Banking System and Services: Reality or Myth

In 1991-1992 Liberalisation has been initiated in Indian economy, and liberalization was incomplete without Globalization and Privatisation (LPG). All these initiatives have opened the doors for the private and foreign parties, who were interested in banking business. LPG has fastened the pace of growth in Indian economy, mobilizing the funds, immense infrastructure development, investment churning etc. From the customer perspective, services have been improved drastically, transaction time has been reduced, customers are empowered by technology driven banking. Earlier customers had to choose Public sector banks as an only option, to avail the banking services but after LPG there are many options to get banking services. Although private sector banks has given a intense competition to the PSU (Public sector units) banks but they joined the banking industry with a motive of profitability and wealth maximisation, a large number of complex products are introduced to meet the different requirements of the customer, but these products are not easily understood by the customers and leads to mis-selllling. In the name of the superior services, multiple and exorbitant charges are levied on the customers and erode the customer money. By arranging the modern looking facilities and maintaining physical appearance of the branch premises, higher Average balance is demanded from the customers. The services are based on the financial health of the customer. In this paper we briefly elaborate the post liberalization scenario and the bank practices with the provisions of the Customer service code 2018 (CSC, 2018) (Issued by Reserve Bank of India to take care of the customer interest by monitoring the customer services practices in banks). In this research we found that banks are lacking in providing services as per the commitments made by CSC and certain issues are raised by the customers regarding insufficiency in the services. Methodology- Structured questionnaire has been used to collect the data from private sector and public sector bank customers. So that, a representative data can be collected to draw the conclusions. Findings- In this research we found that banks are lacking in providing services as per the commitments made by CSC and certain issues are raised by the customers regarding insufficiency in the services. Practical Implication- This study provides an in-depth analysis of consumer’s problem and the level of unawareness among the customers about their rights. Hence, the apex banking authorities should take relevant steps to spread the awareness among the customer and take corrective actions, so that banking activities can be done as per the norms of customer service code. Originality- This research work is totally new in this field, researcher is able to collect only couple of studies in this field, rest are the literature is similar but not in the same field. It will add to the existing literature for further research. Keywords: Profit Motive, customer service code, Bank Practice, Customer Services

Research on energy sharing ability and adaptability of building Complex: A case study with smart community in Japan

Energy sharing within building complexes depends greatly on the complex load adaptability and policy support. However, most building complex microgrid research concentrates on configuration and operation optimization, rather than energy contributions from different users. The objective of this study is to analyze energy sharing ability and load adaptability for a building complex comprising multiple building types, under transaction liberalization restrictions in different energy markets. The specific research for this study is a smart community in Kitakyushu, Japan, with 49 buildings of different types. The complex's microgrid system in this study comprises photovoltaic, battery, and vehicle to grid services. We obtained six representative typical clusters by reducing the 49 buildings’ dimensionality using principal components and clustering, then Monte Carlo simulation to predict permissible discharge capacities for vehicle to grid (V2G) services. We propose three demand-side liberalization scenarios: self-use, photovoltaic feed-in tariffs (FITs), and free trade; optimizing system configuration under different scenarios using a genetic algorithm. Results confirm that shopping malls achieve best economic benefits with self-use scenario; whereas office building adaptability is more significant for the other scenarios. These results will contribute to user selection and system design for building complex microgrid systems.

How Central Asia to Escape from trade isolation?: Policy targeted scenarios by CGE modelling

AbstractIt has been 30 years since Central Asian ‘‐stan’ countries, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, declared their independence in 1991. The Republics have chosen various transition paths from centrally planned to the market‐based economic system. The research found that Central Asian leaders’ protectionist policy, on top of the landlocked geographical environment, made trade costly, rendering these countries further isolated. Consequently, economic development slows down, unemployment increases and poverty rate extremes. Eventually, the isolated region (relatively, excluding Kazakhstan) is imprisoned in a low‐income trap and framed into a vicious circle. As a solution for tackling high‐trade costs in the region, this paper utilises the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling to simulate the impacts of implementing policy‐targeted scenarios. The study presents that tariff reduction/elimination and trade facilitation policies could flourish the region by bringing significant economic welfare and robust GDP growth. The trade facilitation scenarios impact the region's economy much more positively than do tariff liberalisation scenarios.

Trade agreements and participation in global value chains: Empirical evidence from Latin America

AbstractThe rise of global sourcing implies a heterogeneous relationship between buyers and suppliers regarding the liberalisation scenarios in emerging countries. This paper analyses the effect of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on participation in the Global Value Chains of Latin American countries between 1995 and 2015. We combine the framework of gravity equations with the trade in value‐added, applying a Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator with panel data and fixed effects to deal with endogeneity and heteroscedasticity. Heterogeneous estimations show that the deepest RTAs reinforce the position of lower technology‐industry suppliers, driven by an extra‐regional strategy of Latin American trade policy. The geography of value chains has little effect on industrial upgrading in the region, reducing the development potential. The study concludes that the region's trade policy could reduce the dependent relationship between distant partners and pay more attention to creating shorter value chains as a strategy to generate local capacities to gain competitiveness in value chains.

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model. World Health Organization regions. We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal). Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions. HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.

A CGE Analysis of Indonesia's Free Trade Agreements

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) CGE model of the global economy, this essay analyses how much trade agreements between Indonesia and its top three trading partners – China, Japan, and the USA – could benefit Indonesia and those trading partners. In addition, an analysis of unilateral trade liberalization in Indonesia is included to provide a comparison of alternative trade liberalization policy strategies. The study conducts experiments by simulating the potential effect of the removal tariffs on imported merchandise under each liberalization scenario. The result suggests that the impact of trade liberalization is variable between strategies, but the greatest economic benefit is from the unilateral scenario. However, the restrictiveness of preferential RoO and other regulations in bilateral agreements would limit the scope for achieving the full benefit projected for the bilateral liberalization scenarios – discount rates of around 25 percent have been suggested.

Management orientation of young awardee farm women of University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad

Since ancient times women have been playing a crucial role in family as well as in farming. But their contribution has not been identified fully and acknowledged. In the present scenario of globalization, liberalization and privatization of agricultural sector, the sustainable development of farm women is considered as a key factor for development of any country. This study was conducted in Dharwad, Gadag and Haveri districts of Karnataka. The woman who had received Yuva Shresta Krishi Mahile award during 2014-2017 was purposively selected. A total of 60 young awardee farm women were selected as a sample for the study from 17 talukas conferred by the UAS Dharwad. Pre-structured interview schedule was used to collect the data. Suitable statistical tools like frequency, percentage and indices were used for analysis of the data. The important findings of the study revealed that, cent per cent of the awardee farm women belonged to young age group (< 35 years) had high school education and from big family size (43.33 %) belonged to joint family (51.67 %), had medium farming experience (60.00 %) and had big land holding (38.33%). A majority of the respondents had low annual income (78.33 %), 63.34 per cent had high level management orientation, 33.33 per cent had medium level and only 3.33 per cent had low level of management orientation.

Growth and Performance of General Insurance Companies in India – Premium Rate and Claim Settlement Perspective

Life is full of risks and uncertainties. In fact risk is everywhere. Even when you ride a bike to the nearest shop in the street, there is a risk. One must protect himself or herself from this risk. The solution is insurance. Broadly it is two types i.e. life insurance and non-life insurance (general insurance). In this paper we discuss about only general insurance. General insurance helps in securing ourselves and things we value like homes, cars, bikes or any other property from any kind of mishap whether it is big or small. General insurance protect insured property from fire accidents, floods, earthquakes, storms, thefts, travel accidents/mishaps or any other kind of calamity, even from the cost incurred against us from legal action depending upon the type of policy selected by the insurer. From the post liberalization scenario, general insurance in India is growing rapidly. The reasons behind its spectacular growth are allowing private companies to enter into Indian market, low insurance premium, TPAs (Third Party Administrators), Fast and immediate settlement of insurance claims, Innovative general insurance policies, discounts in insurance products, increasing awareness among people, more distribution channels etc. The other side of the coin is, public sector insurance companies are facing cut throat completion from private insurance companies as they offer wide variety of policies at a low premium. Due to this few general insurance companies are closed and few are forced to come out with same polices and services. Ultimately the performance of public sector general insurance companies also enhanced with the competitive moves by private players. On the other hand, customers are also exposed to new trends in the insurance market. Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) is the apex body in India to monitor the activities of insurance companies. It has laid down standard terms and conditions to general insurance companies and also given scope for personal accidental life insurance policies. IRDA has taken all the measures to improve the performance of general insurance companies as it is one of the fast growing areas in Indian economy.

Impact of India ASEAN FTA on employment in Indian manufacturing sector

Domestic production in Indian manufacturing sector failed to generate adequate employment opportunities but jobs supported by exports from the sector has been on the rise. The current study examines the employment effect of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (IAFTA) on Indian manufacturing sector. Of the different FTAs signed by India, IAFTA involves one of the largest trade volumes. Using CGE modelling framework of GTAP database the study conducts simulations by calibrating the trade liberalisation scenario as of 2018 between India and the ASEAN countries. IAFTA fetches employment growth in manufacturing. But the beneficiaries of this gain are the unskilled labour who benefit both in terms of greater employment and higher wages. Higher usage of unskilled labour in conjunction with increased imported inputs also fetches productivity gains for the country. However, skilled labour employment is hit. Overall impact of IAFTA on manufacturing sector remains positive due to increased trade and employment gains.

Impact of India ASEAN FTA on employment in Indian manufacturing sector

Domestic production in Indian manufacturing sector failed to generate adequate employment opportunities but jobs supported by exports from the sector has been on the rise. The current study examines the employment effect of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (IAFTA) on Indian manufacturing sector. Of the different FTAs signed by India, IAFTA involves one of the largest trade volumes. Using CGE modelling framework of GTAP database the study conducts simulations by calibrating the trade liberalisation scenario as of 2018 between India and the ASEAN countries. IAFTA fetches employment growth in manufacturing. But the beneficiaries of this gain are the unskilled labour who benefit both in terms of greater employment and higher wages. Higher usage of unskilled labour in conjunction with increased imported inputs also fetches productivity gains for the country. However, skilled labour employment is hit. Overall impact of IAFTA on manufacturing sector remains positive due to increased trade and employment gains.

The Dynamics of General Insurance Sector in India Growth and Performance Perspective

Life is full of risks and uncertainties. In fact risk is everywhere. Even when you ride a bike to the nearest shop in the street, there is a risk. One must protect himself or herself from this risk. The solution is insurance. Broadly it is two types i.e. life insurance and non-life insurance (general insurance). In this paper we discuss about only general insurance. General insurance helps in securing ourselves and things we value like homes, cars, bikes or any other property from any kind of mishap whether it is big or small. General insurance protect insured property from fire accidents, floods, earthquakes, storms, thefts, travel accidents/mishaps or any other kind of calamity, even from the cost incurred against us from legal action depending upon the type of policy selected by the insurer. From the post liberalization scenario, general insurance in India is growing rapidly. The reasons behind its spectacular growth are allowing private companies to enter into Indian market, low insurance premium, TPAs (Third Party Administrators), Fast and immediate settlement of insurance claims, Innovative general insurance policies, discounts in insurance products, increasing awareness among people, more distribution channels etc. The other side of the coin is, public sector insurance companies are facing cut throat completion from private insurance companies as they offer wide variety of policies at a low premium. Due to this few general insurance companies are closed and few are forced to come out with same polices and services. Ultimately the performance of public sector general insurance companies also enhanced with the competitive moves by private players. On the other hand, customers are also exposed to new trends in the insurance market. Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) is the apex body in India to monitor the activities of insurance companies. It has laid down standard terms and conditions to general insurance companies and also given scope for personal accidental life insurance policies. IRDA has taken all the measures to improve the performance of general insurance companies as it is one of the fast growing areas in Indian economy. General insurance companies under public sector are facing lot of challenges from private players and to with stand in the completion, even they have improved a lot in their quality of service in multiple facets like decreasing the premium, quick settlement in claims etc. In a nut shell, general insurance business is contributing significantly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Operational Efficiency of Selected General Insurance Companies in India

Life is full of risks and uncertainties. In fact risk is everywhere. Even when you ride a bike to the nearest shop in the street, there is a risk. One must protect himself or herself from this risk. The solution is insurance. Broadly it is two types i.e. life insurance and non-life insurance (general insurance). In this paper we discuss about only general insurance. General insurance helps in securing ourselves and things we value like homes, cars, bikes or any other property from any kind of mishap whether it is big or small. General insurance protect insured property from fire accidents, floods, earthquakes, storms, thefts, travel accidents/mishaps or any other kind of calamity, even from the cost incurred against us from legal action depending upon the type of policy selected by the insurer. From the post liberalization scenario, general insurance in India is growing rapidly. The reasons behind its spectacular growth are allowing private companies to enter into Indian market, low insurance premium, TPAs (Third Party Administrators), Fast and immediate settlement of insurance claims, Innovative general insurance policies, discounts in insurance products, increasing awareness among people, more distribution channels etc. The other side of the coin is, public sector insurance companies are facing cut throat completion from private insurance companies as they offer wide variety of policies at a low premium. Due to this few general insurance companies are closed and few are forced to come out with same polices and services. Ultimately the performance of public sector general insurance companies also enhanced with the competitive moves by private players. On the other hand, customers are also exposed to new trends in the insurance market. Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) is the apex body in India to monitor the activities of insurance companies. It has laid down standard terms and conditions to general insurance companies and also given scope for personal accidental life insurance policies. IRDA has taken all the measures to improve the performance of general insurance companies as it is one of the fast growing areas in Indian economy.

Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.

Service Trade Liberalization in Oman: International Commitments and Trade Performance

Abstract The service sector constitutes an important and a growing sector of the global economy as well as in the Arab region. In Oman, the service sector accounts for the highest share in the sectoral composition of the GDP and constitutes a crucial component of the overall policy of economic diversification. The objective of this paper is to investigate the extent of service trade liberalization in Oman as reflected in its international trade commitments, and analyze its trade performance using an adapted version of the gravity model within the context of the wider Arab region. The analysis shows that Oman has the third most extensive GATS commitments in the Arab region, which have been consolidated and improved upon under USA–Oman FTA. Results from the gravity analysis indicate that WTO membership has a significant effect in enhancing service exports, while the variable US-FTA has a correct sign but a non-significant effect. Trade potential calculation shows that comparatively Oman has a quite significant export potential among the Arab countries indicating that it could potentially increase its exports more than what is actually traded. A trade liberalization scenario, in which countries reduce their trade restrictiveness index to the most liberal country in the region indicates that the GCC countries like Kuwait, Qatar and Oman would benefit the most from service liberalization with an increase in export values of, respectively, 89 %, 87 % and 75 % compared d to the base year.

UK Unilateral: Post-Brexit Liberalization Potential

This study assesses the potential gains from unilateral trade liberalization for the UK, against the background of a hard Brexit in which a hard border and tariff wall is erected between the UK and the European Union. Unilateral trade liberalization would allow the UK to expeditiously offset at least some of the trade costs incurred in leaving the EU Single Market without a deal as it does not depend on negotiation with third parties, and hence is not limited by trade negotiating capacity in the UK or its prospective free trade partners. At the same time, unilateral liberalization faces the political economy challenge of removing protection in the most sensitive sectors, which is where most of the liberalization gains come from, while also giving up leverage to conclude future trade agreements. A highly ambitious unilateral liberalization scenario represents, in terms of trade structure and costs, a substantial gain but falls short of offsetting a hard Brexit (when both the unilateral scenario and the hard Brexit scenario are modelled on a common set of modelling assumptions and protocols). Based on the modelling results, the main political economy challenge to unilateral liberalization for the UK in a post-EU trade policy context would be the deep negative impacts on UK agriculture.

THE EFFECTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION BETWEEN INDONESIA AND JAPAN: A CASE TO INDONESIAN ECONOMY

This paper examines the effects of free trade between Indonesia and Japan on agriculture and manufacturing sector, consumer welfare, and the whole economy in Indonesia using a computable general equilibrium model based on 2008 Indonesia Input-Output Table. The general theory related to the effects of free trade says domestic consumers will benefit while disadvantages domestic producers will suffer from the free trade policy. In contrast, this study found that both the domestic consumers and the domestic industries (people who work in industries) benefit from trade liberalization scenario. The consumer welfare and economics utility would also increase. Also, the model estimates the reduction in government revenue, which is caused by decreasing tariff, is lower than the addition in government revenue from non-tariff income. Finally, manufacturing sector seems has the highest benefit from trade liberalization while in the agriculture sector is estimated minor outcome

‘Deal’ or ‘No Deal’? Impacts of Alternative Post‐Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture

SummaryBrexit will have important implications for UK agricultural commodity markets due to potentially significant changes to trade flows. We quantify the sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of three illustrative scenarios, which capture a broad range of potential trade arrangements: Bespoke Free Trade Deal, WTO Default and Unilateral Trade Liberalisation. It is estimated that the projected market impacts are relatively small if the UK negotiates a Bespoke Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The projected impacts are much greater under the two other scenarios, which capture potential trade arrangements if ‘no deal’ is reached. The high tariffs imposed under the WTO default scenario lead to significant adjustments in trade between the UK and EU‐27, with the impact on the domestic UK market depending on whether the UK is a net importer or a net exporter of the relevant commodity. All sectors experience price and production declines under the trade liberalisation scenario in which the UK unilaterally sets tariffs on imports from both the EU‐27 and the rest of the world to zero; the impacts are particularly severe in the beef and sheep sectors where international competition is very strong.

THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE EVOLUTION OF TRADE POLICY ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS IN DEVELOPING ASIAN COUNTRIES

The situation in agricultural markets in Asian countries, as well as the future of agricultural policy and trade policy in these countries, is important for food producers in other parts of the world, especially in developed countries. The aim of this article is to present current agricultural policy trends in selected developing Asian countries using support measures published by the World Bank and the OECD, as well as to examine the global impact of food trade policy developments in these countries as a result of full liberalization scenario, as well as increased protectionism scenario. Research shows that raising tariffs on agricultural products in the analyzed Asian countries to a maximum allowable level would lead globally to lower trade and GDP in other parts of the world, while full tariff reductions would be a stimulus to trade and benefit the rest of the world.

Trade liberalization and forest transition

AbstractWe develop a theoretical model that provides an additional explanation for the forest transition based on a trade liberalization scenario. We introduce a renewable natural resource (wood), used as an input by manufacturing firms, in a framework with economic geography foundations: transport costs affect the spatial distribution of firms. In a general equilibrium, the results reproduce the forest transition at a global scale: a decrease in transport costs has an initial negative effect on the worldwide stock of the natural resource, but this effect is offset over time as a consequence of industrial reallocation and eventually disappears in the long run.