Levels Of Transmission Intensity Research Articles

Evaluating malaria prevalence and land cover across varying transmission intensity in Tanzania using a cross-sectional survey of school-aged children

BackgroundTransmission of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa has become increasingly stratified following decades of malaria control interventions. The extent to which environmental and land cover risk factors for malaria may differ across distinct strata of transmission intensity is not well known and could provide actionable targets to maximize the success of malaria control efforts.MethodsThis study used cross-sectional malaria survey data from a nationally representative cohort of school-aged children in Tanzania, and satellite-derived measures for environmental features and land cover. Hierarchical logistic regression models were applied to evaluate associations between land cover and malaria prevalence within three distinct strata of transmission intensity: low and unstable, moderate and seasonal, and high and perennial.ResultsIn areas with low malaria transmission, each 10-percentage point increase in cropland cover was associated with an increase in malaria prevalence odds of 2.44 (95% UI: 1.27, 5.11). However, at moderate and higher levels of transmission intensity, no association between cropland cover and malaria prevalence was detected. Small associations were observed between greater grassland cover and greater malaria prevalence in high intensity settings (prevalence odds ratio (POR): 1.10, 95% UI: 1.00, 1.21), and between greater forest cover and reduced malaria prevalence in low transmission areas (POR: 0.74, 95% UI: 0.51, 1.03), however the uncertainty intervals of both estimates included the null.ConclusionsThe intensity of malaria transmission appears to modify relationships between land cover and malaria prevalence among school-aged children in Tanzania. In particular, greater cropland cover was positively associated with increased malaria prevalence in areas with low transmission intensity and presents an actionable target for environmental vector control interventions to complement current malaria control activities. As areas are nearing malaria elimination, it is important to re-evaluate environmental risk factors and employ appropriate interventions to effectively address low-level malaria transmission.

Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India

Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India

Programmatic options for monitoring malaria in elimination settings: easy access group surveys to investigate Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology in two regions with differing endemicity in Haiti

BackgroundAs in most eliminating countries, malaria transmission is highly focal in Haiti. More granular information, including identifying asymptomatic infections, is needed to inform programmatic efforts, monitor intervention effectiveness, and identify remaining foci. Easy access group (EAG) surveys can supplement routine surveillance with more granular information on malaria in a programmatically tractable way. This study assessed how and which type of venue for EAG surveys can improve understanding malaria epidemiology in two regions with different transmission profiles.MethodsEAG surveys were conducted within the departments of Artibonite and Grand’Anse (Haiti), in regions with different levels of transmission intensity. Surveys were conducted in three venue types: primary schools, health facilities, and churches. The sampling approach varied accordingly. Individuals present at the venues at the time of the survey were eligible whether they presented malaria symptoms or not. The participants completed a questionnaire and were tested for Plasmodium falciparum by a highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (hsRDT). Factors associated with hsRDT positivity were assessed by negative binomial random-effects regression models.ResultsOverall, 11,029 individuals were sampled across 39 venues in Artibonite and 41 in Grand’Anse. The targeted sample size per venue type (2100 in Artibonite and 2500 in Grand’Anse) was reached except for the churches in Artibonite, where some attendees left the venue before they could be approached or enrolled. Refusal rate and drop-out rate were < 1%. In total, 50/6003 (0.8%) and 355/5026 (7.1%) sampled individuals were hsRDT positive in Artibonite and Grand’Anse, respectively. Over half of all infections in both regions were identified at health facilities. Being male and having a current or reported fever in the previous 2 weeks were consistently identified with increased odds of being hsRDT positive.ConclusionsSurveys in churches were problematic because of logistical and recruitment issues. However, EAG surveys in health facilities and primary schools provided granular information about malaria burden within two departments in Haiti. The EAG surveys were able to identify residual foci of transmission that were missed by recent national surveys. Non-care seeking and/or asymptomatic malaria infections can be identified in this alternative surveillance tool, facilitating data-driven decision-making for improved targeting of interventions.

The potential impact of dengue vaccination with, and without, pre-vaccination screening

BackgroundThe World Health Organization defined a ‘screen and vaccinate’ strategy as its recommended policy for the licensed dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia, Sanofi Pasteur), so that only individuals with previous dengue infection are vaccinated. The objectives of the present study were to build upon a recently published analysis of the benefits and risks associated with dengue vaccination to evaluate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of a screen and vaccinate strategy. MethodsThe current analysis was based on a previously reported transmission model and added, for the screening part, three rapid diagnostic tests with identical specificity (99%) but alternative sensitivities (50-70-90%) in the detection of prior dengue infection. The impact of a screen-and-vaccinate strategy considered nine settings representing different levels of transmission intensity. Outcomes (dengue-related hospitalizations, severe dengue, and symptomatic dengue) were assessed according to the level of transmission setting. The cost-effectiveness of vaccination in 10 endemic countries was also assessed. ResultsAlthough associated, in most cases, with a lower population impact than a ‘no-screening’ approach, a screen and vaccinate strategy is more effective in reducing the number of hospitalized and severe cases prevented per vaccination performed and generates positive health benefits for individuals screened and subsequently vaccinated. As a result, this intervention is cost-effective in all countries considered except for very low transmission settings. The overall population impact of a screen and vaccinate approach is also likely to be improved by the use of several rounds of screening (up to 48% reduction in dengue hospitalization over 10 years with 5 rounds). ConclusionsWHO recommended option of a screen and vaccinate policy is likely to have a positive impact both at the individual and population level across a wide range of transmission settings and has the potential to be as, if not more, cost-effective than a no screening strategy.

Entomological determinants of malaria transmission in Kayin state, Eastern Myanmar: A 24-month longitudinal study in four villages

Background: The Thailand-Myanmar borderland is an area endemic for malaria where transmission is low, seasonal and unstable. The epidemiology has been described but there is relatively few data on the entomological determinants of malaria transmission. Methods: Entomological investigations were conducted during 24 months in four villages located in Kayin state, on the Myanmar side of the Thailand-Myanmar border. Anopheles mosquitoes were identified by morphology, and molecular assays were used in order to discriminate between closely related sibling species of malaria vectors. Plasmodium infection rate was determined using quantitative real-time PCR. Results: The diversity of Anopheles mosquitoes was very high and multiple species were identified as malaria vectors. The intensity of human-vector contact (mean human-biting rate= 369 bites/person/month) compensates for the low infection rate in naturally infected populations of malaria vectors (mean sporozoite index= 0.04 and 0.17 % for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively), yielding intermediary level of transmission intensity (mean entomological inoculation rate= 0.13 and 0.64 infective bites/person/month for P. falciparum and P. vivax, respectively). Only 36% of the infected mosquitoes were collected indoors between 09:00 pm and 05:00 am, suggesting that mosquito bed-nets would fail to prevent most of the infective bites in the study area. Conclusion: This study provided a unique opportunity to describe the entomology of malaria in low transmission settings of Southeast Asia. Our data are important in the context of malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Entomological determinants of malaria transmission in Kayin state, Eastern Myanmar: A 24-month longitudinal study in four villages

Background: The Thailand-Myanmar borderland is an area endemic for malaria where transmission is low, seasonal and unstable. The epidemiology has been described but there is relatively few data on the entomological determinants of malaria transmission. Methods: Entomological investigations were conducted during 24 months in four villages located in Kayin state, on the Myanmar side of the Thailand-Myanmar border. Anopheles mosquitoes were identified by morphology, and molecular assays were used in order to discriminate between closely related sibling species of malaria vectors. Plasmodium infection rate was determined using quantitative real-time PCR. Results: The diversity of Anopheles mosquitoes was very high and multiple species were identified as malaria vectors. The intensity of human-vector contact (mean human-biting rate= 369 bites/person/month) compensates for the low infection rate in naturally infected populations of malaria vectors (mean sporozoite index= 0.04 and 0.17 % for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively), yielding intermediary level of transmission intensity (mean entomological inoculation rate= 0.13 and 0.64 infective bites/person/month for P. falciparum and P. vivax, respectively). Only 36% of the infected mosquitoes were collected indoors between 09:00 pm and 05:00 am, suggesting that mosquito bed-nets would fail to prevent most of the infective bites in the study area. Conclusion: This study provided a unique opportunity to describe the entomology of malaria in low transmission settings of Southeast Asia. Our data are important in the context of malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Seasonality in malaria transmission: implications for case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapy in sub-Saharan Africa.

BackgroundLong-acting artemisinin-based combination therapy (LACT) offers the potential to prevent recurrent malaria attacks in highly exposed children. However, it is not clear where this advantage will be most important, and deployment of these drugs is not rationalized on this basis.MethodsTo understand where post-treatment prophylaxis would be most beneficial, the relationship between seasonality, transmission intensity and the interval between malaria episodes was explored using data from six cohort studies in West Africa and an individual-based malaria transmission model. The total number of recurrent malaria cases per 1000 child-years at risk, and the fraction of the total annual burden that this represents were estimated for sub-Saharan Africa.ResultsIn settings where prevalence is less than 10 %, repeat malaria episodes constitute a small fraction of the total burden, and few repeat episodes occur within the window of protection provided by currently available drugs. However, in higher transmission settings, and particularly in high transmission settings with highly seasonal transmission, repeat malaria becomes increasingly important, with up to 20 % of the total clinical burden in children estimated to be due to repeat episodes within 4 weeks of a prior attack.ConclusionAt a given level of transmission intensity and annual incidence, the concentration of repeat malaria episodes in time, and consequently the protection from LACT is highest in the most seasonal areas. As a result, the degree of seasonality, in addition to the overall intensity of transmission, should be considered by policy makers when deciding between ACT that differ in their duration of post-treatment prophylaxis.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0839-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Measurement of Plasmodium falciparum transmission intensity using serological cohort data from Indonesian schoolchildren

BackgroundAs malaria transmission intensity approaches zero, measuring it becomes progressively more difficult and inefficient because parasite-positive individuals are hard to detect. This situation may arise shortly before achieving local elimination, or during surveillance post-elimination to prevent reintroduction. Antibody responses against the parasite last longer than the infections themselves. This “footprint” of infection may thus be used for assessing transmission intensity. A statistical approach is presented for measuring the seroconversion rate (SCR), a correlate of the force of infection, from individual-level longitudinal data on antibody titres in an area of low Plasmodium falciparum transmission.MethodsBlood samples were collected from 160 Indonesian schoolchildren every month for six months. Titres of antibodies against AMA-1 and MSP-119 antigens of P. falciparum were measured using ELISA. The distribution of antibody titres among seronegative and -positive individuals, respectively, was estimated by comparing the titres from the study data (a mixture of both seropositive and -negative individuals) with titres from a (unexposed) negative control group of Indonesian individuals. Two Markov-Chain models for the transition of individuals between serological states were fitted to individual anti-PfAMA-1 or anti-PfMSP-1 titre time series using Bayesian Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC). This yielded estimates of SCR as well as of the duration of seropositivity.ResultsA posterior median SCR of 0.02 (Pf AMA-1) and 0.09 (PfMSP-1) person-1 year-1 was estimated, with credible intervals ranging from 1E-4 to 0.2 person-1 year-1. This level of transmission intensity is at the lower range of what can reliably be measured with the present study size. A Bayesian test for seroconversion of an individual between two observations is presented and used to identify the subjects who have most likely experienced an infection. Furthermore, the theoretical limits of measuring transmission intensity, and how these depend on duration and size of a study as well as on transmission intensity itself, is illustrated.ConclusionsThis analysis shows that it is possible to measure SCR's from individual-level longitudinal data on antibody titres. In addition, individual seroconversion events can be identified, which can be useful in assessing interruption of transmission. Analyses of further serological datasets using the present method are required to improve and validate it. This includes measurement of the duration of antibody responses, how it depends on host age or cumulative exposure, or on the particular antigen used.

Optimal Timing of Insecticide Fogging to Minimize Dengue Cases: Modeling Dengue Transmission among Various Seasonalities and Transmission Intensities

BackgroundDengue infection is endemic in many regions throughout the world. While insecticide fogging targeting the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major control measure against dengue epidemics, the impact of this method remains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated that insecticide fogging minimized cases when conducted soon after peak disease prevalence, although the impact was minimal, possibly because seasonality and population immunity were not considered. Periodic outbreak patterns are also highly influenced by seasonal climatic conditions. Thus, these factors are important considerations when assessing the effect of vector control against dengue. We used mathematical simulations to identify the appropriate timing of insecticide fogging, considering seasonal change of vector populations, and to evaluate its impact on reducing dengue cases with various levels of transmission intensity.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe created the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model of dengue virus transmission. Mosquito lifespan was assumed to change seasonally and the optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue incidence under various lengths of the wet season was investigated. We also assessed whether insecticide fogging was equally effective at higher and lower endemic levels by running simulations over a 500-year period with various transmission intensities to produce an endemic state. In contrast to the previous study, the optimal application of insecticide fogging was between the onset of the wet season and the prevalence peak. Although it has less impact in areas that have higher endemicity and longer wet seasons, insecticide fogging can prevent a considerable number of dengue cases if applied at the optimal time.Conclusions/SignificanceThe optimal timing of insecticide fogging and its impact on reducing dengue cases were greatly influenced by seasonality and the level of transmission intensity. We suggest that these factors should be considered when planning a control strategy against dengue vectors.

Malaria diagnostic testing and treatment practices in three different Plasmodium falciparum transmission settings in Tanzania: before and after a government policy change

BackgroundPatterns of decreasing malaria transmission intensity make presumptive treatment of malaria an unjustifiable approach in many African settings. The controlled use of anti-malarials after laboratory confirmed diagnosis is preferable in low endemic areas. Diagnosis may be facilitated by malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). In this study, the impact of a government policy change, comprising the provision of RDTs and advice to restrict anti-malarial treatment to RDT-positive individuals, was assessed by describing diagnostic behaviour and treatment decision-making in febrile outpatients <10 years of age in three hospitals in the Kagera and Mwanza Region in northern Tanzania.MethodsProspective data from Biharamulo and Rubya Designated District Hospital (DDH) were collected before and after policy change, in Sumve DDH no new policy was implemented. Diagnosis of malaria was confirmed by RDT; transmission intensity was evaluated by a serological marker of malaria exposure in hospital attendees.ResultsPrior to policy change, there was no evident association between the actual level of transmission intensity and drug-prescribing behaviour. After policy change, there was a substantial decrease in anti-malarial prescription and an increase in prescription of antibiotics. The proportion of parasite-negative individuals who received anti-malarials decreased from 89.1% (244/274) to 38.7% (46/119) in Biharamulo and from 76.9% (190/247) to 10.0% (48/479) in Rubya after policy change.ConclusionThis study shows that an official policy change, where RDTs were provided and healthcare providers were advised to adhere to RDT results in prescribing drugs can be followed by more rational drug-prescribing behaviour. The current findings are promising for improving treatment policy in Tanzanian hospitals.

Are rapid diagnostic tests more accurate in diagnosis of plasmodium falciparum malaria compared to microscopy at rural health centres?

BackgroundPrompt, accurate diagnosis and treatment with artemisinin combination therapy remains vital to current malaria control. Blood film microscopy the current standard test for diagnosis of malaria has several limitations that necessitate field evaluation of alternative diagnostic methods especially in low income countries of sub-Saharan Africa where malaria is endemic.MethodsThe accuracy of axillary temperature, health centre (HC) microscopy, expert microscopy and a HRP2-based rapid diagnostic test (Paracheck) was compared in predicting malaria infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as the gold standard. Three hundred patients with a clinical suspicion of malaria based on fever and or history of fever from a low and high transmission setting in Uganda were consecutively enrolled and provided blood samples for all tests. Accuracy of each test was calculated overall with 95% confidence interval and then adjusted for age-groups and level of transmission intensity using a stratified analysis. The endpoints were: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). This study is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00565071.ResultsOf the 300 patients, 88(29.3%) had fever, 56(18.7%) were positive by HC microscopy, 47(15.7%) by expert microscopy, 110(36.7%) by Paracheck and 89(29.7%) by PCR. The overall sensitivity >90% was only shown by Paracheck 91.0% [95%CI: 83.1-96.0]. The sensitivity of expert microscopy was 46%, similar to HC microscopy. The superior sensitivity of Paracheck compared to microscopy was maintained when data was stratified for transmission intensity and age. The overall specificity rates were: Paracheck 86.3% [95%CI: 80.9-90.6], HC microscopy 93.4% [95%CI: 89.1-96.3] and expert microscopy 97.2% [95%CI: 93.9-98.9]. The NPV >90% was shown by Paracheck 95.8% [95%CI: 91.9-98.2]. The overall PPV was <88% for all methods.ConclusionThe HRP2-based RDT has shown superior sensitivity compared to microscopy in diagnosis of malaria and may be more suitable for screening of malaria infection.

Overuse of artemisinin-combination therapy in Mto wa Mbu (river of mosquitoes), an area misinterpreted as high endemic for malaria

BackgroundAdequate malaria diagnosis and treatment remain major difficulties in rural sub-Saharan Africa. These issues deserve renewed attention in the light of first-line treatment with expensive artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and changing patterns of transmission intensity. This study describes diagnostic and treatment practices in Mto wa Mbu, an area that used to be hyperendemic for malaria, but where no recent assessments of transmission intensity have been conducted.MethodsRetrospective and prospective data were collected from the two major village health clinics. The diagnosis in prospectively collected data was confirmed by microscopy. The level of transmission intensity was determined by entomological assessment and by estimating sero-conversion rates using anti-malarial antibody responses.ResultsMalaria transmission intensity by serological assessment was equivalent to < 1 infectious bites per person per year. Despite low transmission intensity, > 40% of outpatients attending the clinics in 2006–2007 were diagnosed with malaria. Prospective data demonstrated a very high overdiagnosis of malaria. Microscopy was unreliable with < 1% of slides regarded as malaria parasite-positive by clinic microscopists being confirmed by trained research microscopists. In addition, many 'slide negatives' received anti-malarial treatment. As a result, 99.6% (248/249) of the individuals who were treated with ACT were in fact free of malaria parasites.ConclusionTransmission intensity has dropped considerably in the area of Mto wa Mbu. Despite this, most fevers are still regarded and treated as malaria, thereby ignoring true causes of febrile illness and over-prescribing ACT. The discrepancy between the perceived and actual level of transmission intensity may be present in many areas in sub-Saharan Africa and calls for greater efforts in defining levels of transmission on a local scale to help rational drug-prescribing behaviour.