Probability Levels Research Articles

Hepatic artery peak systolic velocity compared to non-Doppler ultrasound observations for predicting acute cholecystitis: diagnostic performance and impact on a risk categorization approach.

Compare HAv to non-Doppler ultrasound observations for diagnosing acute cholecystitis in a large consecutive cohort of emergency department (ED) patients and establish a method to combine HAv assessment with non-Doppler observations for diagnosing acute cholecystitis. Consecutive ED patients at one institution undergoing gallbladder (GB) ultrasound (US) for acute cholecystitis between 1/1/2020 and 8/31/2022 had assessments of GB diameter, GB wall thickness, GB contents, pericholecystic irregular collection, and hepatic artery peak systolic velocity (HAv). The non-Doppler observations were scored and summed. Non-Doppler risk categorization was based on rate of acute cholecystitis associated with summed scores. The impact of HAv stratification on the rate of acute cholecystitis in the non-Doppler risk categories was evaluated, with regrouping when subgroups had changes in the acute cholecystitis rate; the regrouping established the HAv-adjusted risk model. Receiver-operator curves for acute cholecystitis diagnosis for individual parameters, the non-Doppler risk categorization, and the HAv-adjusted risk model were compared using area-under-curve (AUC) calculations. Of the 885 patients in the study cohort, 117 (13.2%) had acute cholecystitis. The AUC for diagnosing acute cholecystitis using GB distention (83.8%, p < 0.001), GB wall thickness (79.1%, p < 0.001), and GB contents (75.0%, p 0.02) were higher than HAv (66.3%). HAv assessment adjusted risk for 195 patients. The non-Doppler risk categorization and the HAv-adjusted risk model had the same sensitivity (84.6%) and specificity (85.2%) for diagnosing acute cholecystitis, but the HAv-adjusted risk model showed higher AUC (91.3%, p 0.03) due to increased ability to exclude acute cholecystitis. The diagnostic performance of HAv for acute cholecystitis was lower than other assessments. A categorization scheme based on summed points assigned to each non-Doppler observation was improved with HAv assessment. This risk categorization approach using formulaic integration of non-Doppler and Doppler assessments on ED patients allows radiologists to convey one of five levels of disease probability based solely on sonographic features ranging from effectively excluding acute cholecystitis to substantially elevating the chance the patient has the condition.

Trimming the UCERF3-TD logic tree: Model order reduction for an earthquake rupture forecast considering loss exceedance

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3-Time Dependent depicts California’s seismic faults and their activity. Its logic tree has 5760 leaves. Considering 30 more model combinations related to ground motion produces 172,800 distinct models representing so-called epistemic uncertainties. To calculate risk to a portfolio of buildings, one also considers millions of earthquakes and spatially correlated ground-motion variability. We offer a tree-trimming technique that retains the probability distribution of portfolio loss and identifies the leading sources of uncertainty for further study. We applied it to a California statewide building portfolio and various levels of nonexceedance probability between one in 100 and one in 2500. We trimmed the logic tree from 172,800 leaves to as few as 15. The result: a supercomputer that would otherwise run 24 h to estimate the distribution of one-in-250-year loss can calculate it in moments with the reduced-order model. Others can use the reduced-order model to calculate risk to different California portfolios, and scientists can prioritize study to reduce the remaining epistemic uncertainty.

Performance du score de probabilité à 4 niveaux 4PEPS pour le diagnostic de l'embolie pulmonaire dans une population d'Afrique subsaharienne : données du Registre des Embolies Pulmonaires du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Bogodogo, Burkina Faso

ObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of the 4PEPS score in the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism at the University Hospital of Bogodogo from January 1, 2021 to July 31, 2023. MethodologyThis was a cross-sectional descriptive and analytical diagnostic study, running from January 1, 2021 to July 31, 2023. It took place in the infectious and tropical diseases departments, including a pneumology unit and a cardiology unit, of the Bogodogo University Hospital. Patients of both sexes with suspected pulmonary embolism who had undergone CT scan were included. The 4PEPS score was calculated and dichotomized into probable and improbable. It thus constituted the diagnostic test. CT scan was the gold standard. The accuracy of the diagnostic test was judged by the area under the ROC curve. An area under the curve between 0.70 and 1 would mean that the score was moderately informative to perfect. ResultsOur study included 472 patients with suspected pulmonary embolism out of a total population of 1228 patients. Hospital prevalence was 21.7%. The mean age of patients was 54.3 years. Females accounted for 52.1% of cases, with a sex ratio of 0.93. The prevalence of pulmonary embolism in the different probability levels of the 4PEPS score was 13.3% for the very low level, 11.7% for the low level, 84.6% for the intermediate level and 93.3% for the high level. Sensitivity and specificity were 92.1% and 86.82% respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 90.1% and 89.4% respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.91. ConclusionIn our study, the 4PEPS score showed good negative and positive predictive values. The use of this score will enable practitioners faced with diagnostic difficulties to make therapeutic decisions, reducing inappropriate prescriptions for thoracic angioscan.

Retrospective Analysis of Transfusion-Related Adverse Reactions: A 15-Month Study of a Single Center’s Experience

The aim of this study was to evaluate transfusion-related adverse reactions (TRARs). In this study, all adverse reactions (ARs) related to blood/blood product transfusions conducted between 01.01.2022 and 31.03.2023 at the Health Sciences University Türkiye, Adana City Training and Research Hospital were evaluated. In total, 97,926 records of blood and blood component transfusions were evaluated during the study period. The distribution of blood components used was as follows: 57,066 (58.2%) red blood cell concentrates, 27,345 (28%) fresh frozen plasma, 12,282 (12.5%) pooled platelet concentrates, 564 (0.6%) apheresis platelet concentrates, and 669 (0.7%) cryoprecipitates. In total, 40 AR reports were associated with transfusions. The probability levels of the relationship degrees of reactions for these 40 cases were as follows: 2 cases; not likely (5%); 32 cases; likely (80%); 2 cases; highly likely (5%); and 4 cases, unassessable (10%). All unwanted reactions were acute, and there were no delayed reactions. No transfusion reaction (TR) leading to death occurred. Of the patients who developed reactions, 60% (n=24) were female, and 40% (n=16) were male. The ages of patients with unwanted reactions ranged from 2 to 86 years, with a median age of 33. Among the cases with unwanted reactions, 8 were children (20%) and 32 were adults (80%). In our study, the frequency of allergic TR was 8.1 per 100,000 children and 32.6 per 100,000 adults. A statistically significant difference in the distribution of blood component types among cases based on the types of unwanted reaction was observed (p=0.003). In this retrospective evaluation of 15 months of data from a single center, 97,926 blood component transfusions were performed, and the prevalence of TRAR was 40.8 per 100,000 blood components.

Analysis of impulse withstand voltage of ester-based nanofluids

Ester-based nanofluids constitute an effective ecological alternative to petroleum-derived dielectric fluids for electrical engineering industry. Pulse induced dielectric breakdown is a key cause of power device failure. In this paper, we deal with the lightning impulse breakdown voltage (LI BDV) in natural and synthetic ester-based (NE and SE) nanofluids with various concentrations of magnetite (Fe3O4) and fullerene (C60) nanoparticles. The nanofluids show a decrement in positive polarity LI+ BDV as compared with the base ester. Negative polarity LI- BDV in the nanofluids is similar to that of base oils. Weibull statistical distributions are applied to analyse the results at different cumulative probabilities of 1 %, 10 %, and 50 %. Natural ester with C60 nanoparticles shows higher positive LI+ BDV values at a low probability level, while the negative LI- BDV reaches higher values at higher probability levels. The decreased LI BDV in NE and SE due to the magnetite nanoparticles are attributed to the nanoparticle clustering and percolation. The tendency of C60 nanoparticles to enhance the LI BDV in NE but not in SE is interpreted in the view of the nanoparticle concentration and oil's viscosity effect on the streamer branching and propagation.

Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in patients with acute leukemia.

Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis is a serious complication in hematology. Describe the prevalence, diagnostic aspects, therapeutic modalities, and evolution of the IPA cases occurring in patients with acute leukemia. Our study was retrospective including patients with acute leukemia who developed invasive pulmonary aspergillosis during the period January 2009 and December 2020 at the hematology department in south Tunisia. The IPA was defined in three levels of probability according to the criteria of the EORTC / MSG 2019. We collected 127 patients who presented with Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis. Sixty-three percent of our patients had acute myeloid leukemia. The diagnosis of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis was during the induction course in 76% of cases. Twenty-seven of our patients had chest pain. The chest Computed tomography (CT) scan showed the Halo sign in 89% of cases. The Aspergillus galactomannan antigen was positive in 38% of cases. Extrapulmonary aspergillosis involvement was noted in 18% of cases: IPA was possible and probable respectively in 59% and 41% of cases. All patients treated with Voriconazole with a favorable response in 54% of cases. The mortality rate was 46%. The overall survival at week 12 was 56%. The morbidity and mortality of patients who developed invasive pulmonary aspergillosis with acute leukemia in our series were high. We need to improve our strategy for early diagnosis and management.

Technical note: assessing GPS sensor accuracy using real-time kinematic device for livestock tracking.

The technical aspects of global positioning system (GPS) sensors have been improved substantially over the years, making them valuable and popular tools for livestock tracking. Using GPS sensors allows producers and researchers to locate grazing livestock, monitor their behavior and distribution, and gather referencing information about the health status of the animals and pastures. However, interpreting the behavior of grazing livestock, such as cattle, from GPS data can be difficult due to positioning inaccuracies. Without knowing the positioning accuracy range of GPS sensors, achieving high-level confidence in determining grazing densities and identifying abnormal livestock movement patterns is challenging. In this study, the positioning accuracy of 3 different types of commercial GPS sensors was assessed using a survey-grade real-time kinematics (RTK) device. We outlined the procedures and essential equations and compared the recorded locations from the GPS sensors with reference locations collected from the RTK device. The results demonstrated statistically significant differences (P < 0.05) in positioning accuracy between different types of GPS sensors. The circular error probable (CEP) at 95% probability levels (CEP95) of the 3 sensors ranged from 2.46 to 11.06 m. This accuracy varied among individual sensors within the same brand and across different brands, which underscores the importance of evaluating the positioning accuracy of GPS sensors in livestock tracking. This study provides significant insights for animal scientists, ecologists, and livestock producers engaged in GPS sensor-related research and practices.

O,S,Se-containing Biginelli products based on cyclic β-ketosulfone and their postfunctionalization.

A one-pot three-component Biginelli synthesis of dihydropyrimidinones/thiones/selenones via acetic acid or solvent-free Yb(OTf)3-catalyzed tandem reaction of β-ketosulfone (dihydro-2H-thiopyran-3(4H)-one-1,1-dioxide), an appropriate urea, and arylaldehyde has been developed. The reaction proceeds with high chemo- and regioselectivity to give diverse DHPMs in reasonable yields up to 95%. Moreover, an SO2-containing analogue of anticancer drug-candidate enastron (SO2 vs C=O) was obtained by using the here reported method in gram scale. We also demonstrate the reactivity of the Biginelli product in various directions - synthesis of condensed thiazoles and tetrazoles. In silico assessment of ADMET parameters shows that most compounds meet the lead-likeness requirements. The biological profiles of new compounds demonstrate high probability levels of activity against the following pathogens/diseases: Candida albicans, Alphis gossypii, Tripomastigote Chagas, Tcruzi amastigota, Tcruzi epimastigota, Leishmania amazonensis, and Dengue larvicida.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging and 99Tc WBC-SPECT/CT Scanning in Differential Diagnosis between Osteomyelitis and Charcot Neuroarthropathy: A Case Series.

Distinguishing between Charcot Neuroarthropathy (CN), osteomyelitis (OM), and CN complicated with superimposed OM in diabetic patients is crucial for the treatment choice. Given that current diagnostic methods lack specificity, advanced techniques, e.g., magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 99mTc-HMPAO-WBC Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT/CT), are needed. This study addresses the challenges in distinguishing OM and CN. We included diabetic patients with CN and soft tissue ulceration. MRI and 99mTc-HMPAO-WBC SPECT/CT were used for the diagnosis. The patients were classified into three probability levels for OM (i.e., Definite, Probable, and Unlikely) according to the Consensus Criteria for Diabetic Foot Osteomyelitis (CC-DFO). Eight patients met the eligibility criteria. MRI, supported by SPECT-CT and CC-DFO, showed consistency with the OM diagnosis in three cases. The key diagnostic features included the location of signal abnormalities and secondary features such as skin ulcers, sinus tracts, and abscesses. Notably, cases with inconclusive MRI were clarified by SPECT/CT, emphasizing its efficacy in challenging scenarios. The primary objective of this study was to compare the results of MRI and 99mTc-HMPAO-WBC SPECT/CT with the CC-DFO score in the diabetic foot with CN and suspected OM. Advanced imaging offers a complementary approach to distinguish between CN and OM. This can help delineate the limits of the disease for presurgical planning. While MRI is valuable, 99mTc-HMPAO-WBC SPECT/CT provides additional clarity, especially in challenging cases or when metallic implants affect MRI accuracy.

Assessing the potential long-term effects of sea-level rise on salt marsh’s coastal protective capacity under different climate pathway scenarios

Salt marshes act as natural barriers that reduce wave energy during storm events and help protect coastal communities located in low-lying areas. This ecosystem can be an important asset for climate adaptation due to its particular capability of vertically accrete to adjust to long-term changes in water levels. Therefore, understanding marsh protection benefits thresholds in the face of sea-level rise (SLR) is important for planning future climate adaptation. In this context, the main goal of this manuscript is to examine how the storm protection benefits provided by salt marshes might evolve under SLR projections with different probability levels and emission pathways. In this study, a modeling framework that employs marsh migration predictions from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) as parameterization into a hydrodynamic and wave model (ADCIRC + SWAN) was utilized to explicitly represent wave attenuation by vegetation under storm surge conditions. SLAMM predictions indicate that the SLR scenario, a combination of probability level and emission pathways, plays a substantial role in determining future marsh migration or marsh area loss. For example, results based on the 50% probability, stabilized emissions scenario show an increase of 45% in the marsh area on Maryland’s Lower Eastern Shore by 2100, whereas Dorchester County alone could experience a 75% reduction in total salt marsh areas by 2100 under the 1% probability, growing emissions scenario. ADCIRC + SWAN results using SLAMM land cover and elevation outputs indicate that distinct temporal thresholds emerge where marsh extent sharply decreases and wave heights increase, especially after 2050, and exacerbates further after 2080. These findings can be utilized for guiding environmental policies and to aid informed decisions and actions in response to SLR-driven environmental changes.

Safety considerations for large constellations of satellites

The deployment of constellations of satellites within low Earth orbit (LEO) has implications for space operations and for the broader space environment. A large active satellite population will experience high numbers of conjunctions with other resident space objects (RSOs). Even if only a small proportion are high-probability events, the substantial number of conjunctions will still lead to many potentially high-risk encounters with other RSOs and a correspondingly high burden for their operators to mitigate them via maneuvers. This burden is exacerbated if the operator adopts an approach whereby risk mitigation maneuvers are conducted at collision probability levels below the widely accepted 1E-4 (1-in-10,000). Despite these significant efforts the remaining aggregate risk may still be relatively high because of the large number of conjunctions experienced by some constellations, leading to ongoing concern over the safety of these space systems. Through an analysis of conjunction assessment data, simulations using the DAMAGE computational model, and a new mapping approach, the risks from conjunctions between large constellations and other RSOs have been investigated. The results show that some existing constellations currently face more than a 10 % annual collision probability even after accounting for their robust risk mitigation approaches, with implications for the safety and long-term sustainability of large constellations and the broader LEO environment. Overall, the work emphasizes the need for new research and guidance on this aspect of space operations.

Effect of Pre-Harvest Losses on Profitability of Plantain Production in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

The study examined the effect of pre-harvest losses on profitability of plantain farmers in Bayelsa State, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to: describe the socio economic characteristics of plantain farmers, examine pre-harvest losses of plantain on profitability and determine factors that influence pre-harvest losses of plantain. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select five (5) local government areas (Yenagoa, Ogbia, Kolokuma-Opokuma, Sagbama and Southern Ijaw) purposively based on their predominance in commercial plantain farmers and six (6) communities each from the 5 LGAs respectively, and, furthermore, eight (8) plantain farmers in each community, making a total number of two hundred and forty (240) plantain farmers. Structured questionnaire was used to elicit the required information from the selected respondents. The result indicates that 55.1% of the respondents fall between the age range of 31-50 years, with the mean age of 44 years. Males (51.9%) dominated plantain production in the study area. The majority of the plantain farmers were married (60.0%), 95.5% had formal education, 60.0% had 1-15 years of farm experience, 77.9% were part-time farmers, 98.3% had family size of 1-10 persons in their households with a mean of 5 persons, and 56.7% had farm size of 2-4 hectares. The result further shows that 56.7% used hired labour while 86.7% had no month contact with extension agent. Sucker, fertilizer, household size, and educational level had a significant relationship with plantain production at various probability levels, indicating profitability. Based on the findings, it was therefore recommended that there is a need for the farmers to put up parameter fencing to prevent theft cases which is extremely high and adversely affects net farm income. However, government and non-governmental organizations can support in terms of granting farmers' soft loans in order to reduce the burden.

Testing dental microwear as a proxy for characterising trophic ecology in fossil elasmobranchs (chondrichthyans)

Dental microwear analysis is a well-established technique that provides valuable information about the diets of extant and extinct taxa. It has been used effectively in most major groups of vertebrates. However, in chondrichthyans, these methods have been implemented only recently in the form of dental microwear texture analysis, with conflicting results. Causes intrinsic to chondrichthyan biology, such as limited food-to-tooth contact, low diversity in terms of trophic categories or fast tooth replacement, have been suggested to reduce diet-related wear on individual teeth, hindering the use of this approach for reliable dietary reconstruction. Here, we explored the relationship between diet and dental microwear in chondrichthyans by using 2D analysis, which can provide finer-scale identification and accurate definition of scratch morphology from tooth surfaces a priori. Scratches were counted and measured on the teeth of 34 extant elasmobranchs grouped into three categories (piscivorous, durophagous and generalist) according to dietary preferences. Our results revealed specific patterns of tooth microwear as a function of dietary abrasiveness, enabling the discrimination of trophic groups and thus establishing a useful comparative framework for inferring aspects of trophic ecology in fossils. We then used this information to study dental microwear in six fossil species from the same locality and stratigraphic levels. First, analyses of the enameloid surfaces of the fossil show that post-mortem alterations are distinguishable, allowing reliable quantification of diet-related ante-mortem microwear signatures. Discriminant analysis allowed the recognition of microwear patterns comparable to those of living sharks and linked them to specific trophic groups with high probability levels (> 90%). Thus, microwear features developing on chondrichthyan teeth during feeding are intense enough to retain information regarding diet preferences. 2D microwear analysis can track this information, proving to be a useful tool for providing significant information not only about diet but also about oral processing mechanisms in extinct chondrichthyans.

A new, simplified endoscopic scoring system for predicting clinical outcome in gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia: the “e-cout system”

Background and ObjectivesThe clinical outcomes of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN) exhibit significant diversity, and the current reliance on endoscopic biopsy for diagnosis poses limitations in devising appropriate treatment strategies for this disease. This study aims to establish a prognostic prediction scoring system (e-Cout system) for gastric LGIN, offering a theoretical foundation for solving this clinical challenge. MethodsRetrospectively selecting 1013 cases meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria from over 300,000 cases of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy performed at the Digestive Endoscopy Center of our hospital between 2000 and 2022, the cohort included 484 cases as development cohort and 529 cases for validation. Employing relevant statistical analysis, we used development cohort data to establish the e-Cout system for gastric LGIN, and further used validation cohort data to for internal validation. ResultsIn the developmental stage, based on accordant regression coefficients, we assigned point values to six risk factors for poor prognosis: 4 points for microvessel (MV) distortion, 3 points for MV thickening, 2 points for ulcer, and 1 point each for lesion size > 2cm, disease duration > 1 year, and hyperemia and redness on the lesion surface. Patients were then categorized into four risk levels: low risk (0-1 point), medium risk (2-3), high risk (4-6), and very high risk (≥7). During the validation stage, significant differences in the three different outcomes of gastric LGIN were observed across all risk levels. The probability of reversal and progression showed a significant decrease and increase, respectively, with escalating of risk levels, and these differences were statistically significant (P< 0.001). ConclusionsThe proposed e-Cout system holds promise in aiding clinicians to predict the probability and risk levels of different clinical outcomes in patients with gastric LGIN. This system is expected to provide an improved foundation and guidance for the selection of clinical strategies for this disease.

О влиянии неопределенностей на прогнозы ветрового ресурса и выработки электроэнергии

The annual power generation of a wind farm is one of the most important indicators determining the profitability of a wind power project. The methods used to estimate the annual power generation of a wind farm have to consider uncertainties at all stages of the project life cycle. When developing a financial model of a wind power project, it is required to consider information about uncertainties to reduce the error and increase the reliability of the project. Specialists of various countries are improving the efficiency of wind power plants, studying wind energy resources, as well as assessing the efficiency of their use. However, special studies do not pay due attention to the problem of assessing the impact of various uncertainties on the forecasts of wind resource and power generation. Two methods are proposed to calculate uncertainties. They are a deterministic method based on the assumption of independence of various uncertainties, and a Monte Carlo method that simulates the behavior of a physical system many times. The paper considers the uncertainties to be considered during the design of a wind farm and presents the variation ranges. The authors have presented the plots of power generation with various levels of probability of being reached or exceeded the total uncertainty for three variants. It is shown that considering the various uncertainties allows a power generation forecast to be made with increased accuracy. The results obtained are necessary to develop a wind measurement data processing model that allows us to forecast electricity generation by existing wind power plants with increased accuracy.

DAIRY FARMERS' VIEWS ON OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO ADOPTING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

This study investigates the challenges inhibiting dairy farmers in South Gujarat from adopting climate change adaptation strategies and presents their perspectives on overcoming these constraints. Data were collected from 280 dairy farmers who were selected through multistage random sampling method in seven districts of South Gujarat. Survey findings revealed predominant issues: Communication participation, social engagement, and key farm-related factors significantly correlated with dairy farmers' adaptation strategies, while certain demographic and economic factors showed significant relationships at different probability levels. Non-significant correlations were found for age, gender, education, and other variables, suggesting nuanced influences that may require further exploration.86.77% cited inadequate technical guidance for livestock practices as the primary barrier, followed by 75.00% experiencing the unavailability of critical adaptation inputs. Financial constraints (67.85%) and limited access to timely weather forecasts (63.57%) were also significant hurdles. Reasons for non-adoption varied with 79.28% attributing it to insufficient resources and 72.50% believing climate change was exaggerated. Conversely, 51.78% sought innovative dairy farming to engage rural youth. The suggestions provided by farmers highlighted urgent needs: establishing low-cost weather forecasting systems (87.85%) and regular technical guidance visits (82.14%). Financial aid (72.50%) and awareness about livestock insurance schemes (60.71%) were stressed, alongside training in climate mitigation practices (59.28%).These findings underscore the multifaceted challenges faced by dairy farmers and offer a clear direction for policymakers and stakeholders. Implementing the suggested solutions could empower the farming community in adopting resilient climate adaptation strategies in South Gujarat reason.

Factors Militating Against Family Caregivers on Cancer Patients Health in Selected Teaching Hospitals in Ogbomoso Area, Oyo State, Nigeria

Introduction: Cancer is gradually becoming a chronic disease, which brings important needs and difficulties to both patients and caregivers. Objective: The study examines factors militating against family caregivers on cancer patients health in selected teaching hospitals in Ogbomoso area, Oyo State, Nigeria. Materials and Methods: Both questionnaire and interviewed techniques were used for data collection from 120 respondents chosen through stratified sampling techniques. In analyzing the data, logit regression model was employed in addition to conventional descriptive statistics such as tables, frequency distribution and percentages. Results: The result of regression model has coefficient of five (5) variables that were statistically significant at 1%, and 5% probability levels. The results revealed that variables with positive signs indicate that the chances of factors militating against family caregivers on cancer patients health increase with education (2.15), social support (2.76), communication, (2.67), and financial support (4.92) whereas, variables with negative sign indicates that the chances of factor militating against family caregivers on cancer patients health decreases with socio-cultural beliefs (-2.64). Conclusion: It identified that factors militating against family caregivers on cancer patients health strongly influenced by gender, age, education, marital status and religion. Hence, recommendation was made that regular systemic assessment of effects of caregiving and shared care responsibility among family members to provide a respite for a particular caregiver.

A Bayesian approach to assessing uncertainty in the effect of fertilization strategies on paddy rice yield via multiple on-farm experiments

ABSTRACT The surge in global agricultural input prices, particularly for nitrogen (N) fertilizers, has presented challenges for farmers facing stagnant crop prices and rising production costs. This study explored a system designed to sustain or enhance farmers’ income while reducing production costs, with a specific focus on implementing practices that involve cultivating crops with lower rates of fertilizer than conventional rates, particularly in smaller land settings, through on-farm experimentation (OFE). OFE was conducted over three years across 11 fields in Gifu, Japan, utilizing a strip trial design to investigate the effect of fertilizer input rates on rice yield. To collect yield data, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-mounted multispectral cameras were deployed. A Gaussian process model was used to address the impact of fertilizer input rates on yield while accounting for spatial yield variation. The study further assessed the number of field trials achieving positive profits at certain probability levels by integrating outcomes from multiple OFEs. The results highlighted little rice yield response to fertilizer input in most of the fields, while several fields showed significant positive yield responses. Notably, the use of lower fertilizer input rates in certain fields proved to be more profitable whereas higher fertilizer input rates were less profitable in most fields. The results further emphasized the economic viability of lower rates, especially when fertilizer prices are high, thus contributing valuable insights for sustainable and profitable rice production in Japanese cultivation.

A Process Algebraic Approach to Predict and Control Uncertainty in Smart IoT Systems for Smart Cities Based on Permissible Probabilistic Equivalence.

Process algebra is one of the most suitable formal methods to model smart IoT systems for smart cities. Each IoT in the systems can be modeled as a process in algebra. In addition, the nondeterministic behavior of the systems can be predicted by defining probabilities on the choice operations in some algebra, such as PALOMA and PACSR. However, there are no practical mechanisms in algebra either to measure or control uncertainty caused by the nondeterministic behavior in terms of satisfiability of the system requirements. In our previous research, to overcome the limitation, a new process algebra called dTP-Calculus was presented to verify probabilistically the safety and security requirements of smart IoT systems: the nondeterministic behavior of the systems was defined and controlled by the static and dynamic probabilities. However, the approach required a strong assumption to handle the unsatisfied probabilistic requirements: enforcing an optimally arbitrary level of high-performance probability from the continuous range of the probability domain. In the paper, the assumption from the previous research is eliminated by defining the levels of probability from the discrete domain based on the notion of Permissible Process and System Equivalences so that satisfiability is incrementally enforced by both Permissible Process Enhancement in the process level and Permissible System Enhancement in the system level. In this way, the unsatisfied probabilistic requirements can be incrementally enforced with better-performing probabilities in the discrete steps until the final decision for satisfiability can be made. The SAVE tool suite has been developed on the ADOxx meta-modeling platform to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach with a smart EMS (emergency medical service) system example, which is one of the most practical examples for smart cities. SAVE showed that the approach is very applicable to specify, analyze, verify, and especially, predict and control uncertainty or risks caused by the nondeterministic behavior of smart IoT systems. The approach based on dTP-Calculus and SAVE may be considered one of the most suitable formal methods and tools to model smart IoT systems for smart cities.

Adaptive Conformal Inference for Computing Market Risk Measures: An Analysis with Four Thousand Crypto-Assets

This paper investigates the estimation of the value at risk (VaR) across various probability levels for the log-returns of a comprehensive dataset comprising four thousand crypto-assets. Employing four recently introduced adaptive conformal inference (ACI) algorithms, we aim to provide robust uncertainty estimates crucial for effective risk management in financial markets. We contrast the performance of these ACI algorithms with that of traditional benchmark models, including GARCH models and daily range models. Despite the substantial volatility observed in the majority of crypto-assets, our findings indicate that ACI algorithms exhibit notable efficacy. In contrast, daily range models, and to a lesser extent, GARCH models, encounter challenges related to numerical convergence issues and structural breaks. Among the ACI algorithms, Fully Adaptive Conformal Inference (FACI) and Scale-Free Online Gradient Descent (SF-OGD) stand out for their ability to provide precise VaR estimates across all quantiles examined. Conversely, Aggregated Adaptive Conformal Inference (AgACI) and Strongly Adaptive Online Conformal Prediction (SAOCP) demonstrate proficiency in estimating VaR for extreme quantiles but tend to be overly conservative for higher probability levels. These conclusions withstand robustness checks encompassing the market capitalization of crypto-assets, time-series size, and different forecasting methods for asset log-returns. This study underscores the promise of ACI algorithms in enhancing risk assessment practices in the context of volatile and dynamic crypto-asset markets.