This paper explores the relationship between team success, both in absolute terms and relative to preseason expectations, and subsequent personnel investments in Major League Baseball. Given the many ways in which luck impacts game outcomes, underperforming expectations could partially reflect negative, nonpersistent luck. If teams account for this, underperforming teams would make personnel investments more in line with teams with higher win totals. Using fixed effect panel regressions, I find that higher win totals lead to more invest more in personnel for the following season (as measured by changes in payroll and free agent signings) and that, conditional on win totals, underperformance leads to more investment. This is consistent with the theoretical prediction. Additional investment is rational, as I find a team’s level of underperformance is roughly 30% nonpersistent noise. The remaining 70% of underperformance is informative and is effectively incorporated into expected win totals for the following season.