Level Of Risk Research Articles

Two-year Monitoring of Microbiological Water Quality in Small Water Supply Systems: Implications for Microbial Risk Management.

Small water supply systems (SWSSs) are often more vulnerable to waterborne disease outbreaks. In Japan, many SWSSs operate without regulation under the Waterworks Law, yet there is limited investigation into microbial contamination and the associated health risks. In this study, the microbiological water quality of four SWSSs that utilize mountain streams as water sources and do not install water treatment facilities were monitored for over 2 years. In investigated SWSSs, the mean heterotrophic plate counts were below 350 CFU/mL, and the total bacterial loads (16S rDNA concentration) ranged from 4.71 to 5.35 log10 copies/mL. The results also showed the consistent presence of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), i.e., Escherichia coli and Clostridium perfringens, suggesting the potential of fecal pollution. E. coli was then utilized as an indicator to assess the health risk posed by E. coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter jejuni. The results indicated that the estimated mean annual risk of infection and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) exceeded acceptable levels in all SWSSs for the two reference pathogens. To ensure microbial water safety, implementing appropriate water treatment facilities with an estimated mean required reduction of 5-6 log10 was necessary. This study highlighted the potential microbial contamination and health risk level in SWSSs that utilize mountain streams as water sources, even though the water sources were almost not affected by human activities. Furthermore, this study would also be helpful in supporting risk-based water management to ensure a safe water supply in SWSSs.

The landscape of etiological patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in Thailand.

Thailand is among countries with the highest global incidence and mortality rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). While viral hepatitis and liver fluke infections have been associated with HCC and iCCA, respectively, other environmental risk factors, overall risk factor commonality and combinatorial roles, and effects on survival have not been systematically examined. We conducted a TIGER-LC consortium-based population study covering all high-incidence areas of both malignancies across Thailand: 837 HCC, 1474 iCCA, and 1112 controls (2011-2019) were comprehensively queried on lifelong environmental exposures, lifestyle, and medical history. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate risk factors and associated survival patterns. Our models identified shared risk factors between HCC and iCCA, such as viral hepatitis infection, liver fluke infection, and diabetes, including novel and shared associations of agricultural pesticide exposure (OR range of 1.50; 95% CI: 1.06-2.11 to 2.91; 95% CI: 1.82-4.63) along with vulnerable sources of drinking water. Most patients had multiple risk factors, magnifying their risk considerably. Patients with lower risk levels had better survival in both HCC (HR 0.78; 95% CI: 0.64-0.96) and iCCA (HR 0.84; 95% CI: 0.70-0.99). Risk factor co-exposures and their common associations with HCC and iCCA in Thailand emphasize the importance for future prevention and control measures, especially in its large agricultural sector. The observed mortality patterns suggest ways to stratify patients for anticipated survivorship and develop plans to support medical care of longer-term survivors, including behavioral changes to reduce exposures.

Do lead (Pb) content of lipsticks expose a health risk to children? A risk assessment study.

Lead (Pb) content in lipsticks and potential life-long exposure of which might cause severe effects in consumers are an important concern for public. Thus, studies emphasize that lead exposure has no safe levels. From 10 different brands, in total, 25 solid, gloss and creamy lipsticks are deployed from Turkish markets that are also categorized in two different price ranges. In order to evaluate the blood Pb levels in children, the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 'Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model' is utilized. To assess the health risk of chronic usage both for children and adults, oral daily systemic exposure levels are calculated with the worst-case scenario and are compared with Maximum Allowable Dose Level for lipsticks. For lifetime risk assessment, exposure is assumed to start by age 7, and four different exposure scenarios have been deployed. The mean lead content of lipsticks shows significant statistical differences between the high- and low-priced lipstick groups. Daily level and total risk for lifetime Pb exposure from deployed lipsticks are below the acceptable risk levels but long-worn usage of products with routine monitoring of metal content is crucial for sensitive and unintended exposure groups.

Body mass index and all-cause mortality in HUNT and UK biobank studies: revised non-linear Mendelian randomisation analyses

ObjectivesTo estimate the shape of the causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality risk in a Mendelian randomisation framework.DesignMendelian randomisation analyses of two prospective population-based cohorts.SettingIndividuals of European...

Level of Heavy Metals and Potential Ecological Risks in Irrigated Horticultural Farms in the Vicinity of Lake Ziway, Central Ethiopian Rift Valley Region

Level of Heavy Metals and Potential Ecological Risks in Irrigated Horticultural Farms in the Vicinity of Lake Ziway, Central Ethiopian Rift Valley Region

Environmental health risks faced by operating room nurses: A descriptive study

BackgroundThere is limited research on the environmental risks faced by operating room nurses (ORNs). This prospective descriptive study aimed to identify the risk factors encountered by ORNs in their work environment. MethodsThe study included 139 ORNs working in six hospitals in southeastern Turkey. Data were collected between September 2019 and February 2020 through a questionnaire using the Occupational Risk Factors Scale and analyzed using SPSS 22.0 software. ResultsORNs reported varying types and rates of risks, including radiation, biological, ergonomic, chemical, psychological, and physical risks. Common risk factors included infection, radiation and chemical exposure, musculoskeletal issues from prolonged standing, exposure to extreme cold, and heavy workloads. Risk levels vary based on age, education, experience, certification, and work assignment. ConclusionsThese identified risk factors must be addressed by implementing national education programs focusing on factors influencing safety in ORs.

An ergonomic evaluation using a deep learning approach for assessing postural risks in a virtual reality-based smart manufacturing context

This study proposes an integrated ergonomic evaluation designed to identify unsafe postures, whereby postural risks during industrial work are assessed in the context of virtual reality-based smart manufacturing. Unsafe postures were recognised by identifying the displacements of the centre of mass (COM) of body keypoints using a computer vision-based deep learning (DL) convolutional neural network approach. The risk levels for the identified unsafe postures were calculated using ergonomic risk assessment tools rapid upper limb assessment and rapid whole-body assessment. An analysis of variance was conducted to determine significant differences between the vertical and horizontal directions of postural movements associated with the most unsafe postures. The findings assess the ergonomic risk levels and identify the most unsafe postures during industrial work in smart manufacturing using DL method. The identified postural risks can help industry managers and researchers acquire a better understanding of unsafe postures.

Blood Pressure, Readmission, and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized With Acute Kidney Injury.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) complicates 20% to 25% of hospital admissions and is associated with long-term mortality, especially from cardiovascular disease. Lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) following AKI may be associated with lower mortality, but potentially at the cost of higher short-term complications. To determine associations of SBP with mortality and hospital readmissions following AKI, and to determine whether time from discharge affects these associations. This retrospective cohort study of adults with AKI during a hospitalization in Veteran Healthcare Association (VHA) hospitals was conducted between January 2013 and December 2018. Patients with 1 year or less of data within the VA system prior to admission, severe or end-stage liver disease, stage 4 or 5 chronic kidney disease, end-stage kidney disease, metastatic cancer, and no blood pressure values within 30 days of discharge were excluded. Data analysis was conducted from May 2022 to February 2024. SBP was treated as time-dependent (categorized as <120 mm Hg, 120-129 mm Hg, 130-139 mm Hg, 140-149 mm Hg, 150-159 mm Hg, and ≥160 mm Hg [comparator]). Time spent in each SBP category was accumulated over time and represented in 30-day increments. Primary outcomes were time to mortality and time to all-cause hospital readmission. Cox proportional hazards regression was adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory values. To evaluate associations over time, hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated at 60 days, 90 days, 120 days, 180 days, 270 days, and 365 days from discharge. Of 237 409 admissions with AKI, 80 960 (57 242 aged 65 years or older [70.7%]; 77 965 male [96.3%] and 2995 female [3.7%]) were included. The cohort had high rates of diabetes (16 060 patients [20.0%]), congestive heart failure (22 516 patients [28.1%]), and chronic lung disease (27 682 patients [34.2%]), and 1-year mortality was 15.9% (12 876 patients). Overall, patients with SBP between 130 and 139 mm Hg had the most favorable risk level for mortality and readmission. There were clear, time-dependent mediations on associations in all groups. Compared with patients with SBP of 160 mm Hg or greater, the risk of mortality for patients with SBP between 130 and 139 mm Hg decreased between 60 days (adjusted HR, 1.20; 99% CI, 1.00-1.44) and 365 days (adjusted HR, 0.58; 99% CI, 0.45-0.76). SBP less than 120 mm Hg was associated with increased risk of mortality at all time points. In this retrospective cohort study of post-AKI patients, there were important time-dependent mediations of the association of blood pressure with mortality and readmission. These findings may inform timing of post-AKI blood pressure treatment.

A quantitative feedback intervention to reduce binge drinking in young adults.

Existing binge drinking reduction interventions such as brief intervention and personalized normative feedback have shown modest impact. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility (recruitment and retention rates), acceptability, and preliminary efficacy testing of a short-term "know your numbers (KYN)" intervention on motivating young adults to reduce their engagement in binge drinking. Young adults (N=94, mean age 21 years) with a history of binge drinking received a 4-week KYN intervention that included information about their U.S. Alcohol Use Disorders Test (USAUDIT) scores and the alcohol biomarker phosphatidylethanol (PEth) level in relationship to different risk levels of alcohol use. At baseline and 4-weeks, measures included USAUDIT scores, PEth levels, motivation (Alcohol Contemplation Ladder) and other drinking measures. Focus groups were conducted at 4-weeks for feedback on the KYN approach. The recruitment rate was 82.26% (retention rate 76.9%). At 4-weeks there was a 62% increase in contemplation scores (indicating higher motivation), a decrease in USADUIT scores with an increase in the percent of participants classified as low-risk drinkers. No differences were found between baseline and 4-week PEth levels or number of binge episodes. Focus group results revealed satisfaction with the KYN approach but the need to understand how PEth levels and USAUDIT scores corresponded to health consequences and alcohol use levels. Results from this pilot study support the acceptability and potential use of a KYN approach in helping young adults understand their drinking levels.

Development of New Products for Climate Change Resilience in South Africa—The Catastrophe Resilience Bond Introduction

Climate change has brought several natural disasters to South Africa in the form of floods, heat waves, and droughts. Neighbouring countries are also experiencing tropical cyclones, almost on a yearly basis. The insurance sector is faced with an increased level of climate change risk with individuals, corporates, and even the government approaching it for financial cover. However, with an increased level of competition in the insurance sector, (re)insurers must engage in massive product research and development. Therefore, this paper looks at the possibility of the insurance industry developing new products in the form of catastrophe resilience bonds (CAT R Bonds). A qualitative approach is used following content analysis of (re)insurers’ product development policies, marketing documents, company reports, and risk management reports as well as the Conference of Parties 27 and 28 resolution papers. The findings reveal that (re)insurers’ underwriting capacity, reinsurance protection, and innovative and creative product development increase because of CAT R Bonds. CAT R Bonds enhance the interaction between the capital market and money market, thereby giving speculative investors another investment option. Increased investment into new product development such as CAT R Bonds must continue in South Africa in pursuit of climate change resilience goals.

3D Path Planning of the Solar Powered UAV in the Urban-Mountainous Environment with Multi-Objective and Multi-Constraint Based on the Enhanced Sparrow Search Algorithm Incorporating the Levy Flight Strategy

In response to practical application challenges in utilizing solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for remote sensing, this study presents a three-dimensional path planning method tailored for urban-mountainous environment. Taking into account constraints related to the solar-powered UAV, terrain, and mission objectives, a multi-objective trajectory optimization model is transferred into a single-objective optimization problem with weight factors and multi-constraint and is developed with a focus on three key indicators: minimizing trajectory length, maximizing energy flow efficiency, and minimizing regional risk levels. Additionally, an enhanced sparrow search algorithm incorporating the Levy flight strategy (SSA-Levy) is introduced to address trajectory planning challenges in such complex environments. Through simulation, the proposed algorithm is compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO) and the regular sparrow search algorithm (SSA) across 17 standard test functions and a simplified simulation of urban-mountainous environments. The results of the simulation demonstrate the superior effectiveness of the designed improved SSA based on the Levy flight strategy for solving the established single-objective trajectory optimization model.

Assessment and measurement of ground motion risk levels for structures isolated by double concave friction pendulum system

Determining the risk level of ground motions (GM) for structures is crucial for their damage control and resilience enhancement, while the assessment and measurement criteria of GM risk levels for structures isolated by double concave friction pendulum system (DCFPS) remain unclear. Through statistical analysis of the response distribution of DCFPS with various design parameters under 1013 GM records, this study determines an energy dissipation efficacy of 99 %, a floor velocity of 0.35 m/s, a floor velocity of 0.60 m/s, and the displacement capacity of DCFPS as the response criteria for assessing four performance states of efficacy, habitability, functionality, and safety, respectively. In addition, the value of GM intensity in PGA, PGV, PGD, and the equivalent velocity of seismic input energy (VE) for measuring the four GM risk levels corresponding to the four performance states are obtained. Furthermore, a classification of GMs based on earthquake magnitude and fault distance is proposed according to their risk to DCFPS. It is found that the intensity value of each GM risk level varies for different design parameters of DCFPS but fluctuate within a small range, however, great differences exist when using different intensity measures (IM) in classifying GM risk levels. Therefore, based on the correlation between IMs and DCFPS responses, the conservatism of PGA, PGV, PGD and VE in assessing the risk of GMs for DCFPS are evaluated.

Optimal selection of manufacturing enterprise financialization based on simulated annealing investment portfolio theory

The global market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and manufacturing enterprises need to invest and expand. However, the traditional financial optimization of manufacturing enterprises has faced problems such as low efficiency and inaccurate search for the optimal solution, which has made manufacturing enterprises likely to face financial risks. The investment portfolio can enable enterprises to obtain the maximum profit on a certain risk level, or reduce their investment risk on a certain return level as far as possible. If the combinatorial optimization is realized, it can be applied to the optimal selection of manufacturing enterprises’ financialization. This article analyzed the respective characteristics of Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithms, and analyzed the combination of GA and SA algorithms to solve the optimal investment portfolio through GA-SA algorithm, thereby helping manufacturing enterprises to make the optimal choice for financialization. The experimental results of this article indicated that the GA-SA algorithm solved the problem of GA algorithm easily falling into local optima, SA algorithm’s initial temperature and generation mechanism, and improved the efficiency of finding the optimal solution. Meanwhile, the experimental results showed that the average optimal solutions of Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing algorithm, and GA-SA algorithms for 36 stock portfolios in Enterprise 1 were 69, 69, and 107, respectively. The average optimal solutions of the three algorithms for 36 stock portfolios in Enterprise 2 were 73, 90, and 112, respectively. This proves that the number of optimal solutions searched by GA-SA algorithm is higher than that of GA and SA algorithm, and also proves that it is effective to use GA-SA algorithm to optimize investment portfolio and help manufacturing enterprises to make optimal financial choices.

Flood Disaster Risk Assessment in Wuhan City Based on GIS Analysis and Indicator Ranking Using Random Forest

In recent years, with the acceleration of urbanization and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather globally, the risk of urban flood disasters has gradually increased, and its potential consequences are immeasurable. Therefore, conducting risk assessment of urban flood disasters is of great significance, as it is one of the foundations and decision-making means for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and has become a hot topic and trend in current research. This paper starts by exploring the concept and formation mechanism of urban flood disasters, taking Hazard Factors, Disaster-prone Environment sensitivity, Vulnerability of Exposed Bodies, and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Capabilities as primary indicators. Based on this, a risk assessment index system is established with 14 secondary indicators, such as annual average rainfall, distance to water systems, elevation, and terrain undulation. The spatialization of each indicator data point is processed through ArcGIS10.7, and the importance of hazard and sensitivity indicators is ranked using the Random Forest algorithm. The indicators are then weighted using a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the entropy method, and the combined weights of each assessment indicator are calculated. Taking Wuhan City as the research area, the weights of each indicator are input into the established risk assessment model. ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques and raster calculation functions are utilized to solve the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the assessment model, obtaining zoning maps of risk levels for hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability, disaster prevention, and mitigation capabilities, as well as the distribution of comprehensive risk levels. The validity and rationality of the model results are verified by actual disaster data, providing important reference for urban flood disaster prevention in the future.

Multi-Objective Evcuation Planning Model Considering Post-Earthquake Fire Spread: A Tokyo Case Study

As an integral part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is essential for human safety and city sustainability. In recent years, natural disasters, which have had a tremendous negative impact on economic and social development, have frequently occurred in cities. As one of these devastating disasters, earthquakes can severely damage the achievements of urban development and impact the sustainable development of cities. To prepare for potential large earthquakes in the future, efficient evacuation plans need to be developed to enhance evacuation efficiency and minimize casualties. Most previous research focuses on minimization of distance or cost while ignoring risk factors. We propose a multi-objective optimization model with the goal of reducing the risk during the evacuation process, which is called the risk reduction model (RRM). Problem-specific indicators for screening optimal solutions are introduced. The research selects the Ogu area in Tokyo as a case study, where there is a relatively high density of wooden structures, increasing the risks of building collapse and fire spread after an earthquake, and is based on a two-phase evacuation flow that considers secondary evacuation for fire response. The results indicate that, in this case, RRM can, in most situations, reduce the risk level during the evacuation process and improve evacuation efficiency and success rate without significantly increasing the total evacuation distance. It proves to be superior to the traditional distance minimization model (DMM), which prioritizes minimizing the total distance as the objective function.

Risk assessments of drug-related problems for cardiac surgery patients.

Patients undergoing cardiac surgery are considered at high risk for developing drug-related problems (DRPs) due to comorbidities and complexity of drug treatment. This study aimed to identify DRPs in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and to develop and implement a framework to reduce potential risks associated with drugtreatment. Prospectively designed quasi-experimental study. This study consisted of observational (risk assessment and framework development) and interventional (framework implementation) periods and was conducted at a department of cardiovascular surgery in a university hospital. An expert panel evaluated the causes of DRPs. Then a framework was developed in consensus to identify safeguards to be implemented during the interventionalperiod. A total of 200 patients (100 patients per study period) were included. During the observational period, a total of 275 DRPs and 487 causes were identified; 74.5% of DRPs were not solved. For the risk analysis, 487causes were evaluated and only 32.6% were considered acceptable risk. By implementing the framework in the interventional period, 215 DRPs and 304 causes were identified and 386interventions were recommended by a clinical pharmacist. Atotal of 342 (88.6%) interventions were accepted by a health care team, and 128 (59.5%) DRPs were completely solved. For the risk analysis, 304 causes were evaluated and 84.9% were considered acceptable risk ( P < .001 compared with the observational period). It is possible to reduce risk levels or prevent occurrence of DRPs by implementing a framework for risk management developed by a multidisciplinary care team in areas such as cardiac surgery where time is limited.

The influence of water safety knowledge on adolescents’ drowning risk behaviors: a framework of risk-protect integrated and KAP theory

IntroductionAlthough previous research has examined the risk factors for drowning behavior among adolescents, it is unclear whether this association is influenced by water safety knowledge. This study aimed to examine whether water safety knowledge is associated with adolescents’ drowning risk behaviors and whether drowning risk perceptions and attitudes could have a chain mediating role in the association between water safety knowledge and adolescents’ drowning risk behaviors.MethodsThis study included 7,485 adolescents from five Chinese provinces and cities. We used the Drowning Risk Behaviors Scales (DRBS) to evaluate the risk of drowning behaviors. The Water Safety Knowledge Scale (WSKS) was used to evaluate the competence level of water safety knowledge. The Drowning Risk Perceptions Scale (DRPS) was used to evaluate the risk level of perceptions, and the Drowning Risk Attitudes Scale (DRAS) was used to evaluate the risk level of attitudes.ResultsThe results of the mediating effect test showed that water safety knowledge (WSK) affected drowning risk behaviors (DRB) through three indirect paths. Drowning risk perceptions (DRP) and attitudes (DRA) have significantly mediated the association between WSK and DRB. In conclusion, DRP and DRA can act as mediators between WSK and DRB, not only individually, but also as chain mediators, where the direct effect is-0.301, the total indirect effect is-0.214, and the total mediated indirect effect is 41.5%.DiscussionWater safety knowledge negatively predicts adolescents’ drowning risk behaviors; water safety knowledge has an inhibitory effect on drowning risk perceptions. Water safety knowledge can directly influence adolescents’ drowning risk perceptions and indirectly affect drowning risk behaviors through the mediation of drowning risk perceptions and attitudes comprising three paths: (1) the drowning risk perceptions mediation path, (2) the drowning risk attitudes mediation path, and (3) the drowning risk perceptions and attitudes mediation paths.

Creation and Legal Status of a Specially Authorized Body of Non-Banking Financial Services

The article is devoted to the peculiarities of state regulation in the market of non-banking financial services. At the same time, attention was paid to the creation of a specially authorized state body in the form of the National Commission for Control of the Market of Non-Banking Financial Services. The purpose of the article is to reveal the legal status, the order of formation, and clarify the main principles of the National Commission's activity. Achieving the outlined goal became possible thanks to the use of a complex of methods of scientific knowledge, in particular, the dialectical method (for comprehensive knowledge of the nature of the National Commission for Control over the Market of Non-Banking Financial Services), the formal-legal method (for establishing the content of legal norms), the formal-logical method (for identification of shortcomings in national legal regulation), comparative legal method (for studying the experience of other countries and determining the prospects for implementing their principles of activity in the national legal field). It has been studied that the special status of the commission is that it ensures the stability of the entire non-banking financial system of Ukraine, establishing the requirements that such institutions must meet, namely requirements for: liquidity, solvency, capital, asset quality, risk level of operations, profitability. The work examines the relationship between the commission and the National Bank of Ukraine, their cooperation in the market, which consists in the development of regulatory and legal acts and their approval. The need for the National Bank of Ukraine to delegate its powers to the National Commission for Control of Non-Banking Financial Services in relation to: registration of market participants, licensing of non-bank financial institutions, determining the procedure for issuing and canceling a license, approving the terms of operation of such institutions. In view of this, a new model of state regulation on the market of non-banking financial services was proposed in the form of concentration of all control functions on the market in a single operationally independent regulator - the National Commission for Control of Non-Banking Financial Services, which is in close cooperation with the National Bank of Ukraine and by the National Securities and Stock Market Commission. Also, the article emphasizes that regulation by the National Commission for Control of the Market of Non-Banking Financial Services should be complemented by a system of self-regulating participants in the market, which are an additional tool to state regulation.

Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic on preferences of transport modes

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world and changed many aspects of daily life, including transportation behaviour and preferences. This study examines the situation of transportation behaviour and preferences before and after the COVID-19 pandemic process through a survey study. A total of 471 people participated in the survey, and thirty questions were asked to participants regarding transportation modes preference, daily usage habits, public transportation usage rate, income status, perceived risk level of transportation systems, preferences before and after the pandemic process, and more. The answers were classified, evaluated, and statistically analysed. The results showed that users were significantly affected by the COVID-19 process and changed their transportation mode preferences. The use of buses in urban journeys decreased, and the use of private vehicles significantly increased after the COVID-19 process. Hygiene was the key factor in travel, and it was followed by the vehicle occupancy rate, ventilation, fare, and travel time factors, respectively. The perceived risk levels of public transportation systems were ranked as metrobus, minibus (paratransit), bus, metro, tram, and ferry. The study suggests that future transportation system designs should consider user preferences, as well as changes in education and working conditions, and pandemic conditions.

Risk of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Receipt of a Breathing Test in 26 States and the District of Columbia, 2017–2018

Risk of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Receipt of a Breathing Test in 26 States and the District of Columbia, 2017–2018