Level Of Population Aging Research Articles

Study on the development characteristics and spatial and temporal patterns of population ageing in 31 central cities in China.

Population ageing is inseparable from technological innovation, social progress and the development of human civilization, and constitutes a new element in the development of contemporary human history. To dynamically analyses the developmental, structural and growth characteristics of population ageing in 31 provincial capitals and municipalities in China, using the data of the fifth national census in 2000 and the seventh national census in 2020. The development characteristics and spatial and temporal patterns of population aging in the 31 cities were measured using the population aging index growth model, Theil's index, coefficient of variation, population aging index and other analytical methods. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the population aging rate of the 31 central cities generally increased, and the population aging level of the cities showed the characteristics of "East-Central-Northeast-West" to "Northeast-East-Central-West" decreasing. (2) Regional differences in the ratio of old to young are relatively high, while regional differences in the level of population ageing are relatively small. The level of population ageing is classified with the indicators of size structure, family structure and age structure in the first and third quadrants, and with the geographic concentration rate in the second and fourth quadrants. (3) China's population ageing has a T-shaped spatial distribution characteristic pointing along the coast - along the Yangtze Rivers. The 31 central cities are the center of gravity of China's economy and have strong economic power in dealing with the challenges of population ageing, but how to make population ageing compatible with the economy and society, and then promote sustainable population development, is a topic that needs further attention in the study.

“Old” and “young” Chinese provinces: age structure and economic growth

Population aging, a major challenge to economic development, is developing rapidly in China in the 21st century. The objectives of this work are: 1) to identify the degree of aging and the contribution of demographic factors to population aging in various provinces of China; 2) to trace the correlation between the population age structure and the GRP per capita growth rate in the provinces of the PRC; 3) to assess the dynamics of demographic dividend in China in 2002–2021. The authors use methods of demographic and regression analysis based on data from China’s official statistical body. The work reveals significant differences in the level of population aging in different Chinese provinces. The main demographic drivers of aging also differ. In some provinces, changes in fertility make an important contribution during the period under review; in others, changes in mortality make an important contribution. The authors confirm a statistically significant negative relationship between the growth rate of real GRP per capita and the dependency ratio at the current stage of China's development, and calculate the contribution of demographic dividend to the country's economic growth.

Cognitive Functioning among Older Adults in Japan and Other Selected Asian Countries: In Search of a Better Way to Remeasure Population Aging

Japan is the oldest society in the world. It has the highest proportion of the population aged 65 and over, a demographic indicator that has been used by demographers for more than a century. One of the main objectives of this study is to apply a new indicator—the cognition-adjusted dependency ratio (CADR)—to remeasure the level of population aging from an innovative point of view. To compute this new index, we apply the mean age-group-specific immediate recall scores for Japan and four other Asian countries, and we compare the results with those derived from the United States and various developed nations in Europe. Our analysis shows that Japan’s pattern and level of age-related decline in cognitive functioning are highly comparable to those of many other developed nations, particularly in Continental Europe. Among the other Asian countries, Malaysia shows a pattern of change similar to countries in Southern Europe, although Malaysia has slightly lower scores than Southern Europe in all age groups. More importantly, these comparative results based on CADR are astonishingly different from the corresponding results obtained from conventional old-age dependency ratios. The Japanese case is the most salient example.

The nonlinear effect of population aging on carbon emission-Empirical analysis of ten selected provinces in China

Existing related researches have focused on the linear relationship between population aging and carbon emissions, which easily lead to partial understanding of the effect of population aging on carbon emissions. In order to more comprehension of the effect of population aging on carbon emissions, this study explores the nonlinear relationship between population aging and carbon emission through empirical analysis of ten selected provinces in China from 2000 to 2016 using the panel threshold model. In the proposed panel threshold model, carbon emission is set as the explained variable, population aging is set as the core explanatory variable, the levels of population aging and trade openness are set as threshold variables, the levels of economic development, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, and technological innovation are set as the controlling variables, respectively. The results show that population aging has a threshold effect on curbing carbon emission. The levels of population aging and trade openness are two key factors that affect the relationship between population aging and carbon emission. Whether the level of popultion aging is lower or higher than the threshold value of 0.12937, the population aging has a negative coefficient on carbon emissions. Moreover, the higher the level of population aging, the greater the offsetting effect of population aging on carbon emission. When the level of trade openness is below the threshold value of 0.30990, the effect of population aging on carbon emission is negligible. When the level of trade openness is higher than the threshold value of 0.30990, the offesetting effect of population aging on carbon emission begins to appear. In other words, population aging has an offsetting effect on carbon emission when trade openness is in relatively high level, whereas the offsetting effect disappears when trade openness is lower than threshold value.

Starzenie się ludności w polskich miastach

Mieszkańcy miast w Polsce stanowią ponad 60% ludności kraju. W systemie osadniczym naszego kraju występuje wykształcona, kilkustopniowa struktura hierarchiczna miast, a stolica kraju odznacza się niewielką, na tle innych krajów europejskich, przewagą nad innymi ośrodkami regionalnymi. Rozmieszczenie miast, zwłaszcza małych i średniej wielkości, jest równomierne w przestrzeni. Te cechy systemu osadniczego wskazują, że jest to system policentryczny. Obserwowane od kilkudziesięciu lat przemiany demograficzne w Polsce, w tym także starzenie się ludności, dotyczą mieszkańców miast zarówno dużych, średnich, jak i małych. Jednak poziom starzenia się mieszkańców miast różnej wielkości, a także dynamika tego procesu są zróżnicowane przestrzennie. Głównym celem opracowania jest określenie poziomu i dynamiki starzenia się mieszkańców miast małych, średnich oraz dużych w Polsce.

Active Ageing Index in Korea – Comparison with China and EU countries

AbstractThe evidence‐based policymaking relies on the use and robustness of the available data. Many conceptual and operational difficulties restrict this process, not least in making use of evidence to identify policy priorities. The Active Ageing Index (AAI), developed originally for the 28 European Union countries, offers a strong motivation in this respect. This paper reports on the development of the AAI for Korea, a country where speed and level of population aging is among the highest in the world. Drawing on the comparative analysis of the AAI results for Korea, China, and European countries, we find that Korea's AAI (35.3) is higher than the average of the AAI for all EU countries (33.9) but lower than China (37.3). Fitting Korea into the overall ranking with the EU countries and China (ranked 7), Korea is ranked 11, just behind Germany (10). The AAI results in Korea show that the employment domain performs extremely well compared with the EU countries, but other domains, especially “Social participation” and “Independent, healthy and secure living,” are achieving less favorable outcomes. High employment among the current cohorts of older workers in Korea can be attributed largely to the constraints of low pension income status.

Assessment of changes in population aging of Polish provinces in 2002, 2010 and 2017 using the hybrid approach

The study investigates the variation in population ageing in Polish provinces in 2002, 2010 and 2017. Population ageing was assessed using the median age, proportion of elderly people, double ageing index, ageing index, and old-age dependency ratio. The authors took into account causes that explain changes occurring at the bottom and at the top of the population pyramid. By applying the hybrid approach combining multidimensional scaling with linear ordering (the two-step approach), the authors identified differences in the level of population ageing in a two-dimensional space. The paper applies a new method of automatic data collection from the Local Data Bank using the BDL package and the API interface (Application Programming Interface). The BDL API is a data-sharing service through webservice defining programming interfaces independent of the programming language, whereas the bdl package using this API enables webservice integration with the R statistical environment, eliminating the need for manual data extraction and enabling the automation of recurring activities.

Causes and Characteristics of Population Aging

Korea’s level of population aging remains lower than the OECD average. However, the pace of population aging in Korea is faster than that of many other member countries, as its total fertility rate is the lowest among OECD countries while its life expectancy exceeds the OECD average. Using panel data from OECD member countries, this paper divides the common causes of population aging in OECD countries into declining fertility rate and increasing life expectancy, and analyzes these causes of aging mainly in terms of factors influencing the declining fertility rate. According to the results of the analysis, declines in fertility rate are attributable mainly to socioeconomic factors, including wedding and childcare expenses and labor market conditions that limit the division of housework, and sociocultural factors, such as changes in education levels and gender equality values. Increases in life expectancy are found to be positively correlated to welfare policies and income levels. This paper also compares descriptively the characteristics of population aging in Korea with those in major countries. As Korea industrialized rapidly, the aging of its population has progressed rapidly as well. The factors driving this rapid aging include: historical characteristics, such as the decline in potential fertility, caused in part by Korea’s birth control policy; sociocultural characteristics, such as the decline in the fertility rate due to high wedding and childcare expenses, emergence of an environment in which it is difficult to achieve work-family balance, and gender inequality in the division of housework; and demographic characteristics, such as the surge in the proportion of elderly people as the baby boomers age. To cope with this aging, policies are urgently needed to help ease the burdens of wedding and childcare expenses, for example by stabilizing the housing market and, reducing private education expenses, and create working conditions that ensure work-family balance and gender equality in the division of housework. More fundamentally, it is necessary to establish social consensus on the need for a gender-equal society and develop legal and institutional frameworks that will help make such a society a reality. We must also seek comprehensive measures to address poverty among the elderly, caused by the fast pace of aging, and to support the post-retirement pension and welfare systems.

(Population Aging of Reunified Korea)

Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 남북한 통일 이후 북한지역의 출산율과 기대여명 변화에 대한 다양한 시나리오를 설정하고, 코호트 요인법(Cohort Component Method)을 이용하여 남북한 인구를 추계함으로써 시나리오별 인구고령화의 전개양상을 비교하였다. 남북한 통일 이후 북한지역의 출산율과 기대여명 변화에 대한 시나리오는 독일 통일 이후 나타났던 인구변동 사례를 토대로 하였다. 독일의 경우 통일 이후 동독지역의 출산율이 절반수준으로 하락하고 기대여명이 서독수준으로 수렴하였는데, 이를 반영하여 통일 이후 북한지역의 출산율이 하락하고 기대여명이 남한수준으로 수렴하는 경우를 시나리오로 설정하였다. 또한, 남북한 통일의 특수성을 감안하여 통일 이후 북한지역의 보육환경, 보건의료 여건 등이 개선됨에 따라 출산율이 상승하는 경우도 시나리오로 도입하였다. 통일 이후 인구고령화와 관련하여 본 연구의 주요 결론은 다음과 같다. 통일로 인한 남북한 인구통합은 남한의 고령화를 경감시키는 효과가 있으나, 북한지역의 출산율이 급락하고 기대여명이 남한수준으로 상승하는 경우 고령화 경감 효과는 부분적으로 축소되어 장기적으로는 남한의 고령화 수준으로 수렴한다. 다만, 북한의 기대여명이 남한수준으로 상승하더라도 북한지역의 출산율이 상승하는 경우 고령화 경감 효과가 지속되는 것으로 나타났다. English Abstract: This study introduces various scenarios of changes in fertility rates and life expectancy of North Korea after Korean reunification, and compares the development of population aging by scenario based on demographic projections calculated by the cohort component method. These scenarios are set up in consideration of the demographic changes in Germany, observed after its Reunification: the fertility rate of East Germany dropped by half right after unification; and its life expectancy converged to the level of West Germany. Therefore, the fertility shock and the convergence of life expectancy are reflected in the scenarios of North Korean population after unification. Besides, this study assumes a scenario where the fertility rate of the North could increase due to an improvement in child-care environment and public health, considering the distinct features of the inter-Korean unification. The main finding of this study is as follows. The population integration of the two Koreas may alleviate the burden of population aging of South Korea. This positive impact, however, may be gradually reduced if the North’s fertility rate sharply drops and life expectancy converges to the level of the South. Yet, the level of population aging may be continuously reduced in case the fertility rate of the North raises even though its life expectancy converges to the level of the South.

Multivariate Statistic Analysis of the World Population Ageing

The research is devoted to the issue of the ageing of population, which is one of the global problems of the modern world. World countries have been grouped according to the amount of people over 65 years old. The conclusions about spatial differentiation of the ageing population have been drawn. The groups of states with a different level of population ageing were singled out. The amount of ageing population have been forecasted. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n28p50

Population aging in sub-Saharan Africa: Present and prospects

A total of 44 countries is considered here for the analysis. Overall, the level of population aging in 2012 is low in sub-Saharan Africa, around 5%. More than one third (38.6%) of the countries show more than 100% increase in the proportion of 60+ population by 2050. About 28% of the countries have a growth rate of 50% or less. The regional variations within sub-Saharan Africa show that the eastern and southern regions have more growth potential as far as population aging is concerned. No doubt, in sub-Saharan Africa, poverty among older persons is higher than that of the rest of the population. However, 55% of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa have a real GDP growth of more than 5%. Further, a large number of sub-Saharan countries are projected to experience high and increasing economic support ratios for years or decades to come, and can therefore benefit significantly from the ‘demographic dividend’ brought in by the ongoing age structural transition. Thus, with higher GDP growth levels and hence reduction in poverty, higher educational levels and changing life styles including independent living, we can reasonably expect increased scope for the utilization of gerontechnology in the coming decades, at least in a limited way.

Global epidemiology of dementia: Alzheimer's and vascular types.

The prevalence of dementia varies substantially worldwide. This is partially attributed to the lack of methodological uniformity among studies, including diagnostic criteria and different mean population ages. However, even after considering these potential sources of bias, differences in age-adjusted dementia prevalence still exist among regions of the world. In Latin America, the prevalence of dementia is higher than expected for its level of population aging. This phenomenon occurs due to the combination of low average educational attainment and high vascular risk profile. Among developed countries, Japan seems to have the lowest prevalence of dementia. Studies that evaluated the immigration effect of the Japanese and blacks to USA evidenced that acculturation increases the relative proportion of AD cases compared to VaD. In the Middle East and Africa, the number of dementia cases will be expressive by 2040. In general, low educational background and other socioeconomic factors have been associated with high risk of obesity, sedentarism, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and metabolic syndrome, all of which also raise the risk of VaD and AD. Regulating these factors is critical to generate the commitment to make dementia a public health priority.