Leadership Vacuum Research Articles

Minilateralism and the new Indo-Pacific order: theoretical ambitions and empirical realities

ABSTRACT The introductory paper sets the stage for the research essays in the special issue. It provides an overview of the concepts of minilateralism and the context in which minilateralism has become an alternative form of collective action by states in the international arena, in particular in the Indo-Pacific region that has emerged as the new centre of gravity in world politics. How has minilateralism become a prominent feature of inter-state cooperation in the early twenty-first century, and how is it often used to complement (and in some cases, even substitute for) traditional international organisations, which are based on more liberal and inclusive multilateral norms and principles, but suffering from functional deficits? In a world of more diffuse power, how can minilateralism offer states an expanded toolset for pursuing their policy preferences and advancing their interests? At the same time, the paper also highlights the potential negatives of (or challenges to) minilateralism, including difficulties emanating from a narrowly framed agenda that perpetuates certain narratives, a leadership vacuum that could emerge from non-hierarchical arrangements, and questions about how to achieve support and legitimacy with low institutionalisation.

Sustainability within Aotearoa New Zealand’s aerospace sector: current state and implications for the future

ABSTRACT Aotearoa New Zealand's rapidly growing aerospace sector is still in its infancy, which presents us with the unique opportunity to incorporate sustainability as a key performance parameter from the outset. Through surveys and interviews with key stakeholder groups, we show that currently, the sector largely deprioritises environmental sustainability and compliance with Te Tiriti o Waitangi in favour of economic growth. Actors are not incentivised to consider any aspects of sustainability. While environmental concerns are acknowledged, they are often viewed as technical challenges to overcome by individual companies, rather than global systemic issues that require a collaborative approach. Moreover, the Government's role as a customer, investor and regulator creates a sustainability leadership vacuum, with no clear commitment to quantify or prioritise sustainability within the sector. The results highlight the need for a new approach to balance growth with genuine sustainable development principles using innovative governance models.Abbreviations: DPMC: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet; LCA: life cycle assessments; LCANZ: Life Cycle Association of New Zealand; LEO: low Earth orbit; MBIE: Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment; NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NZ: New Zealand; NZSA: New Zealand Space Agency: U.S.: United States (of America)

Leadership vacuum and corporate investment

The vacuum caused by the absence of a political leader has a major economic impact. We manually collect data on the absence of a political leader in 247 Chinese cities between 2009 and 2019 and find that firms reduce their investment by an average of 2.326 % for each month that a political office remains vacant. This result holds even after subjecting the data to a series of endogeneity tests, robustness tests, and alternative explanations. We also demonstrate that the absence of a political leader reduces corporate investment through increased uncertainty of economic policy, reduced governmental efficiency, and disrupted political connections. Finally, our results show that this kind of absence has a more pronounced impact on younger firms, firms located in provinces with slower marketization, firms located in provinces with weak media development, non-state-owned enterprises, and firms located in regions under significant promotional pressure.

Uncertainty spill-overs: When policy and financial realms overlap

No matter its source, financial- or policy-related, uncertainty can feed onto itself, leading to identification challenges in empirical applications. We add to the stock of analytical methods able to disentangle among various types of uncertainty shocks by proposing an identification approach based on a combination of zero and absolute magnitude restrictions implemented in a multi-country setting. We find evidence of sizable spill-overs within the Euro Area (EA) arising from country-specific uncertainty shocks, with financial realm being a more important source than the policy realm. By leveraging on the flexibility of our approach, we show how important is a correct identification of each uncertainty shock type. A comparison between the on-impact responses of sovereign yields for EA members and non-members suggests that the common currency area likely features institutional arrangements and mechanisms that can initially blur the thin line separating uncertainty shock types. Because we find ECB reactions were not likely to be conditioned by the type of the uncertainty shock hitting a particular country, but by its potential to spill over abroad, we believe ECB has filled the leadership vacuum by doing “whatever it takes” to prevent fragmentation of the EA.

Confronting a leadership vacuum: the principal’s leadership role in peace education in South African schools

PurposeThis research aimed to assess the leadership role of principals in the implementation of peace education in selected secondary schools in the Western Cape, South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis study employed qualitative research approach to assess the leadership role of principals in the implementation of peace education in selected secondary schools in the Western Cape, South Africa. Data were gathered from a small sample of six principals from six selected secondary schools which were engaged in the implementation of a peace education programme, and data were analysed using thematic content analyses.FindingsFindings of the study suggest that principals possess a low level of understanding or awareness of their leadership role in the implementation of peace education. The study pointed out the constraints such as time constraints and learners' negative attitudes and social influences hinder the effective implementation of peace education in selected secondary schools.Research limitations/implicationsFirst, the data were self-reported and therefore subject to social desirability bias; participants may have provided socially desirable responses rather than their true belief or experiences. Thus, participants may have overstated their role in and commitment to the peace education programme.Originality/valueStudies that aim to explore alternative approaches to combat violence, such as peace education, are still limited in South Africa. Hence, this paper served to close that gap by contributing to the growing body of research on the leadership role of the principal in the implementation of peace education in the school and exploring barriers hampering its effective implementation.

Giorgia Meloni's Europe

ABSTRACT: For a party that often accuses foreign media of conniving with the domestic opposition, Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy is oddly hungry for good reviews in the U.S. press. Even incidental positive remarks about the Italian prime minister are routinely broadcast across the party's Instagram and twitter accounts, while more critical notes get lost in translation. When Meloni visited President Joe Biden last July, the Washington Posttermed her a "rising star of the far right"; the pro-government Secolo d'Italiareworded it to "international rising star." Her colleagues were particularly enthused in February when CNN's Fareed Zakaria issued a four-minute homage to "Meloni's moment" as a European political heavyweight. Despite grim forecasts upon her election, Zakaria claimed, Meloni had achieved a "remarkable turnaround," proving herself as a stable Western ally, backing Ukraine, and even filling a leadership vacuum in the European Union left open since Angela Merkel's resignation as German chancellor in 2021. Brothers of Italy trumpeted his message far and wide.

Public trust deficit in democratic state and political institutions: Ominous Signposts for South Africa

This paper uses politico-social capital theorisation of the relationship between public trust and democracy in order to demonstrate the interdependence of the African National Congress’ (ANC’s) declining electoral fortunes and the increasing public trust deficits in South Africa’s state, constitutional democracy and political institutions. As desktop-based research, the paper conducts literature survey to distils the relationship between public trust, as social capital, in institutions of society, and electoral performance and formation of societal leadership vacuum, within complexities of the political-economy and political culture and system such as those entrenched in South Africa under the ANC’s 28-year rule. The paper analyses statistical evidence from Afrobarometer’s 2022 survey about South Africans’ public trust in state and political institutions from 2006 to 2021, as well as national, provincial and local government election results from the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) from 1994 to 2019, to corroborate its theoretical framing. It makes three findings, thus: there is a direct relationship between the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes and the erosion of public trust in institutions of society; the ANC’s 28-years of state governance has created an ominous societal leadership vacuum, setting South Africa’s democracy on the precipice of civil strife; and, the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes will persist into the foreseeable future because public trust is hard to regain and sustain once eroded.

South Africa's 'Triple Crisis of Governance' and Societal Leadership Vacuum

South Africa's 'Triple Crisis of Governance' and Societal Leadership Vacuum

Impact of the 2023 armed conflict on Sudan's healthcare system

AbstractThe armed conflict in Sudan erupted in mid‐April 2023, resulting in many casualties, internal displacement, and refugees. Sudan's health system was severely affected by multiple attacks on healthcare facilities and workers, closure of hospitals, and occupation of medical facilities by armed groups. Critical services such as immunization, nutrition, and emergency care have been suspended, disrupting health services in conflict states and increasing strain on neighboring states' healthcare facilities. The conflict also caused shortages of essential medical supplies, looting of healthcare facilities and humanitarian supplies, and destruction of infrastructure, affecting the supply chain and availability of healthcare resources. The deployment and distribution of the health workforce have become challenging and may lead to a further brain drain of healthcare professionals. The financial challenges in healthcare financing are expected to worsen due to the conflict's economic impact on fiscal space and fiscal capacity. The health system's governance has been affected by a leadership vacuum, and decision‐making may shift to the state level. The conflict has also exacerbated the burden of diseases, including communicable diseases, malnutrition, and mental health issues, with potential outbreaks of dengue fever, measles, and spikes of gender‐based violence reported. In response to the conflict, the restoration and maintenance the health system is pivotal via coordinating efforts between the Sudanese Ministry of Health and international partners. The safety of healthcare workers and the delivery of essential supplies need to be restored via strengthening compliance with international humanitarian law, pooling of funds, and services at primary care level. This commentary discusses the impact of the 2023 conflict on Sudan's health and health system, particularly on different building blocks of Sudan's health system as well as the burden of disease and humanitarian response priorities.

Using peer-ethnography to explore the health and well-being of college students affected by COVID-19

ABSTRACT Purpose COVID-19 continues to infect and affect college-aged youth. We lack information about how students experienced the pandemic day-to-day and what they need for recovery, from their own perspectives. This study employed peer ethnography to explore student’s insights for current and future prevention and care. Methods A team of eight students were trained as peer ethnographers to observe and record conversations with their peers in 15-minute increments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Transcripts of 200 conversations were collated and analysed via theme analysis to identify patterns. Results Student conversations revealed dichotomous perspectives about COVID-19. Some students prioritized safety, captured via three themes—caution, rethinking routines, and protecting others. Other students struggled to follow prevention guidelines and took risks, also captured by three themes—parties, denial, and misinformation. A third category of themes captured the results of this dichotomy—tense campus relationships and a health leadership vacuum. Conclusions Our findings identify specific locations for intervention (e.g., off campus parties) and needed community collaborations (e.g., bars and universities) for COVID-19 and future pandemics. Our findings suggest that overarching approaches, like harm reduction or affirmation (versus shame), are helpful intervention frameworks. Findings also celebrate the value of peer-ethnography, to learn about pandemics and solutions from the ground up.

Leadership vacuum and urban economic development: Evidence from a transition country

This study focuses on the impact of municipal government officials’ vacancies on the economic development of their cities. Using manually collected data on unfilled senior governmental positions measured by the absence of municipal party secretaries in China from 2003 to 2019, we find that these absences limit city economic development. We identify two possible channels through which this happens: government efficiency and economic policy uncertainty. Finally, we show that the impact of these vacancies on city economic development is stronger in cities in which there is greater pressure to promote government officials and in less developed cities. Thus, this study offers new evidence that vacancies in city government undermine that city's economic development, particularly in a country undergoing an economic transition.

The Neglected Integration Crisis: France, Germany and Lacking European Co‐operation During the 1973/1974 Oil Shock

AbstractWhen does European co‐operation and (further) integration not happen in the face of a major integration crisis? When do France and Germany not emerge as regional stabilizers, forging and uploading bilateral compromises to the European level? By developing a combined theoretical framework based on liberal intergovernmentalism and leadership approaches, this article analyses the European Economic Community's (EEC) reaction to the 1973/1974 oil crisis. Despite some favourable conditions, differences in domestic energy markets and relations with Arab oil‐producing countries complicated member state co‐operation. In turn, divergent economic philosophies and foreign policy priorities prevented France and Germany from filling the European leadership vacuum. As a consequence, the EEC did not find a unified stance on the Arab oil embargo, subordinated itself to US‐American dominance and undermined its common market via export restrictions for oil. The findings suggest that without minimum convergent member state preferences or compensating regional leadership, European integration and today's European Union risk stalling or even disintegrating.

Leaderless organizations: Identifying leadership vacuum in organizations

Leaderless organizations: Identifying leadership vacuum in organizations

Anchor Institutions as Adaptation Allies: promises and pitfalls of joint urban/military adaptation planning in U.S. cities

U.S. cities have attempted to fill a leadership vacuum for climate action. But acting alone, cities face significant barriers to their capacity, so many seek additional resources through collaborations across sectors and levels of government. This study analyzes how cities leverage one particular kind of collaboration, urban/military adaptation planning. Case studies of urban/military collaborations in Norfolk, Virginia and San Diego, California reveal that military installations can serve as adaptation allies to surrounding communities. These collaborations are motivated by a recognition of social and infrastructural interdependence, but crucially, they are city-led, complicating expectations of exclusionary, authoritarian outcomes. Instead, they have provided pathways for increased resources for local adaptation and expanded regional cooperation. In addition, with urban/military relations shifting away from traditional defense dependency, bases serve as a form of anchor, or large, place-based institution. The military base is one of several overlooked anchors which, in addition to the traditional hospitals and universities, could be key allies. The current anchor model promotes community reinvestment in partnership with large institutions, but does not explicitly include adaptation. However, the anchor model is conceptualized to benefit the same marginalized communities disproportionately impacted by climate hazards, so this is a promising avenue for urban adaptation.

Colonial Governance System in Pakistan: A Case Study of South Waziristan, Newly Merged District

This paper discusses the former colonial governance system based on special set of laws known as Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) in the erstwhile FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas, present-day Newly Merged Tribal Districts). The main purpose of the research is to provide an argument that the colonial governance structure was not the only cause for the widespread militancy in South Waziristan, part of the Newly Merged District. From in-depth interviews with different stakeholders and literature review, it is found out that the FCR with all its inherent faults was deemed successful in the administration of the North West Frontier and it was not responsible for the militancy in the tribal district of South Waziristan. Thus, the paper analyzes the old governance system prior to the spillover of militants and it reaches to the conclusion that the FCR proved to be an effective tool for the political administration of the border area of South Waziristan in both the colonial and post-colonial periods. The study emphases that mismanagement, corruption and incompetency of bureaucracy has led to the weakening of FCR, traditional institutions of dispute resolution and the indigenous leadership model thereby creating leadership vacuum which was in turn filled by the militants. The study has employed ethnographic based data collection techniques to reach the findings that old administrative structure is not responsible for the chaos and militancy in South Waziristan.

Emergence and History

Emergence and History

Champion adoption amid a leadership vacuum

Champion adoption amid a leadership vacuum

Economic Growth and Development in South Asia, with and without Regional Cooperation (The Jawaid Azfar Memorial Lecture)

I thank the PSDE for inviting me to deliver this plenary lecture at its 20th AGM belatedly honouring the memory of a personal friend and colleague, Jawaid Azfar, who passed away more than twenty years ago. Jawaid’s premature demise robbed Pakistan of one of its most promising economists and planners and created a vacuum in the intellectual leadership of Pakistan’s once proud economic planning and management team, which is still a gaping hole. Jawaid Azfar received his academic training in economics at Cambridge and Harvard Universities and his doctorate dissertation on income distribution in Pakistan was a seminal piece of work which inspired many other studies focusing on aspects of equity which were ignored by the earlier planners in Pakistan.1 My own two studies on poverty in Pakistan published in the 1970s benefited greatly from the methodology and insights of his study.2 While teaching at the Quaid-i-Azam University, I worked as a Consultant to the Planning Commission on macroeconomic model building, in close collaboration and almost daily interaction with him. Jawaid also agreed to my request to help in teaching courses at the University and acted as an external examiner on many occasions. Jawaid was a quiet, shy person whose low-key manner concealed his considerable intellectual depth. He died tragically at a young age of stroke due to extreme pressure of work imposed on him by his many demanding bosses who relied on his expertise to push their own self-serving agendas during the first half of Gen. Ziaul Haq’s 11-year military rule.

Чили во внешнеполитической доктрине Джозефа Байдена: проблемы и перспективы

Chile is one of the most developed countries in Western hemisphere. It has a high economic potential and a comparatively stable political system. Election of a new president will not only influence domestic af-fairs but also affect Santiago’s relations with main global actors, first and foremost, with the United States. After the end of Cold War Washington utilized its resources in Eurasia which generated a leadership vacuum in Latin America. The US positions in the region were weakened during Trump’s presidency. The latter did not only fail to propose an alternative path of interregional development but used rhetoric of ultimatums towards Latin-American countries. Renewal of relations with regional powers is one of the main goals of the Biden administration. Cooperation with Chile could optimize White House’s prospects not only in restoration of its regional influence but in the context of the great power competition. Economic development and solid institutions may make Santiago effectively contain China’s influence in the region. A new “Pink tide” will deepen Sino-American rivalry in Latin America and force the United States to widen its policy-toolkit.Partnership is relevant in several spheres: economic, strategic and cultural. The latter two are easier to realize because presidents’ capacity lets them simplify implementation of projects from those fields notwithstanding absence of legislative power’s support. Nevertheless, international context characterized by conflict in Ukraine and economic instability does not allow Washington to work out a long-term and efficient strategy towards Latin America in general and Chile in particular.

Fractured Global Health Governance

This paper discusses the increasing role of China and its rivalry with the United States in global health governance. COVID-19 has presented new challenges in the domain of global health, marked by the debate between unilateral and multilateral approaches to dealing with the pandemic. US declining role poses a threat to the spirit of multilateralism and the prospects for global health governance. When global health governance is on the brink of collapse, China upholds a multilateral approach to lead collective action to defeat the virus. This research utilizes qualitative research method and literature study to collect research data sourced from secondary data sources. Using the concept of rising powers in the realm of global health governance, the results of this study show that the pandemic has offered China a strategic opportunity to fill a leadership vacuum. It has also improved its global position by providing the world with much-needed information and medical supplies. The active contribution of China to global health governance may enhance its global image and legitimacy, build relationships and friendships, emphasize the Peaceful Rise narrative, and support the Health Silk Road project.