Latin American Public Opinion Project Research Articles

Exploring the edges of clientelism: ideology, ethnicity, and partisanship in Belize

ABSTRACT Studies focusing on Belize reveal that clientelism is the glue that makes the party system stick. We explore whether ideology and ethnicity account for partisanship within that deeply clientelist setting. We use four AmericasBarometer survey waves by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) to study the individual-level correlates of partisan attachments with the People’s United Party (PUP) and United Democratic Party (UDP). Using binary and multinomial probit maximum likelihood estimators, we find that ethnicity correlates to partisanship with the PUP, and ideology correlates to partisanship with the UDP. The robustness checks, which focus on declared vote choices in previous national elections, corroborate our findings. The Belizean case shows how clientelist parties can develop alternative support sources and that these can vary substantially.

Partisanship with Rightist and Leftist Parties in Central America: A Test of Four Hypotheses

Abstract Although scholars have made substantial progress in the debate on party systems in Latin America, many questions about partisanship in the region remain unaddressed. This article explores how the determinants of partisanship identified in the literature navigate in Central America, a region commonly overlooked by scholars. We examine a decade of public opinion surveys by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) from 2008 to 2018 to explore the individual-level determinants of partisan attachments with sixty-six leftist and rightist parties in six Central American countries to test four hypotheses. While differences across countries exist, self-placement on the left-right ideological scale, engagement in societal organizations, and protest participation help portray partisan attachments.

Can redistributive policies promote reconciliation beyond its scope? The impact of inequality reduction programs on peacebuilding in Colombia

AbstractTransitional justice jurisdictions aim to promote reconciliation. Although previous research focuses on truth commissions, the reconciliatory role of redistributive justice is less clear. This article investigated the association of conditional cash transfers and victims’ reparation with demand for redistribution, belief in forgiveness, support for the peace process and community participation in Colombia. We analysed three nationally representative samples of the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) surveys in 2011 (Study 1; n = 1503), 2016 (Study 2; n = 1563) and 2018 (Study 3; n = 1663). Consistently across studies, conditional cash transfers (and not victim reparation programs) predicted higher community participation, with little effect on other reconciliation indicators. Further, redistribution is indirectly associated with other reconciliation indicators through community participation, supporting the observation that transitional justice relates to reconciliation when it satisfies a need for agency and empowerment. We discuss how the null effects of the victim reparation program suggesting context‐specific constraints.

Violence against civilians and public support for the state: The moderating role of governance and ideology

When state armed forces engage in violence against civilians during civil wars, why do some citizens continue to support the government? I argue that individuals’ support for the state in such contexts is shaped by the interplay between their perceptions of violence, governance and ideology. Drawing on research concerning motivated reasoning, I suggest that ideological similarity with and effective governance from the state can alleviate the negative effect of military violence against civilians on support for the state and, conversely, augment the positive effect of insurgent abuse on attitudes toward the government. Analysis of seven years of surveys fielded by the Latin American Public Opinion Project in Colombia between 2005 and 2011 suggests that individuals’ responses to victimization by the state’s armed forces depend on whether the individuals are ideologically aligned with the state. More specifically, among people who have an ideology similar to that of the president, military victimization has a less negative effect on support for the armed forces and for the national government. There is also mixed evidence that the quality of state governance, particularly the provision of security from crime, shapes the ways people respond to victimization. While existing studies primarily focus on the effects of either violence or governance on attitudes toward the state, these findings indicate that a more complete theory of why people support governments which engage in violence against civilians requires an understanding of not only violence but also of governance and ideology.

Gender and institutions moderate the relationship between conditional cash transfers and political participation

AbstractBackgroundIn the last 25 years, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have become popular assistance policies across Latin America, Africa, and Asia for combating poverty and building human capital. Despite some success in reaching these goals, questions remain about the wider political effects of CCTs on individuals and communities, especially when considering gendered relationships and the institutions in the countries where CCTs are in place.ObjectiveI investigate the relationship between cash transfers and political participation, while also considering the importance of moderating forces such as gender, program enforcement, and compulsory voting.MethodsI use data from AmericasBarometer sourced from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and a series of multilevel models to examine the association between CCTs and a wide set of participatory indicators.ResultsI show CCTs to be robustly associated with higher levels of participation broadly conceived. Results also demonstrate gender and institutional features such as enforced conditions and compulsory voting can attenuate the positive effects of transfers, depending on the form of participation considered.ConclusionOverall, CCTs tend to be strongly associated with political participation. However, CCTs may also reinforce gendered norms of political participation and engagement. Furthermore, the potentially negative associations regarding the enforcement of program conditions are valuable to consider when evaluating the downstream, democratic potential of cash transfer programs.

Trust of demobilized combatants: Overcoming fear or becoming familiar?

Background One critical challenge facing postconflict societies concerns the reintegration of former combatants as productive members of society. Public trust in the legitimacy of a peace agreement is a critical component of rebuilding the economic and social foundations of a war-torn nation. Objectives We argue that the levels of trust of former combatants and confidence in their effective demobilization depend on two critical features of the postconflict environment: fears of insecurity and community engagement. Method We focus our analysis on Colombia and utilize data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project to create a multivariate time-series analysis of public trust in two groups—leftist rebels and rightist paramilitaries. Results We find that both the fear of former combatants and the level of engagement individuals have in their communities help predict respondent attitudes about trust in former combatants and reintegration. Conclusion Fear and familiarity are key determinants in reintegration of former combatants.

Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting for Incumbents under Democratic Backsliding: The Case of Honduras's Bono 10,000

As democracies worldwide have reverted to competitive authoritarian regimes or full dictatorships, some autocrats have used clientelist policies to strengthen their positions of power. We contend that autocrats can weaponise conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to shore up electoral support under democratic backsliding. In this vein, we analyse the impact of Honduras's Bono 10,000, a discretionary CCT, on the electoral support for the incumbent National Party and opposition blocs between 2013 and 2017, an era marked by the erosion of democracy. Using two survey waves from the AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), we show how the CCT boosted the electoral support for the National Party as democracy unravelled. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on how autocrats rely on carrots – not just sticks – to consolidate power.

Social Assistance Expansion and Political Inclusion in Latin America

Has social assistance expansion contributed to political inclusion in Latin America? The current literature favours a “policy exchange” approach, hypothesising that social assistance is an electoral asset exploited by governing coalitions. The findings from this literature are mixed. The article proposes an alternative approach emphasising political inclusion. In unequal societies where economic cooperation is regulated by institutions generating inequality and disadvantage, social assistance contributes to the political inclusion of disadvantaged groups. Analysis of Latin American Public Opinion Project data for 2010 to 2019 data finds support for this hypothesis.

Ethnic Cleavages and Vote Choice in Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago is mostly split between two main ethnic groups of African and Indian origins, yet there is little empirical research on the importance of these social cleavages in voting behaviour in the country. One branch of scholarly work on ethnic voting suggests that individuals use social identities as heuristics to evaluate candidates. However, another line of research has found that the role of ethnicity in elections is declining in specific contexts. This manuscript explores the importance of ethnic cleavages in voting patterns in Trinidad and Tobago. We use the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) surveys and conduct a series of probit models to test which factors influence voting the most in the twin-islands. We find that ethnicity is the main factor associated with voters’ choice, but other factors that are associated with voting decisions, such as voters’ political ideology, education, and place of residence. These findings inform the ongoing debate on the importance of ethnicity in voting behaviour.

A heavy hand or a helping hand? Information provision and citizen preferences for anti-crime policies

AbstractAnti-crime policy is often unresponsive to reductions in crime. To address why, we provide a model and empirical test of how citizens’ anti-crime policy preferences respond to information. Our model shows that preferences for anti-crime policy hinge on expectations about the crime rate: punitive policies are preferred in high crime contexts, whereas social policies are preferred in low crime contexts. We evaluate these expectations through an information experiment embedded in the 2017 Latin American Public Opinion Project survey conducted in Panama. As expected by our theory, a high crime message induced stronger preferences in favour of punitive policies. Unanticipated by our theory, but in line with cursory evidence and survey results, we find that a low crime message did not induce stronger preferences in favour of social policies. These findings are consistent with policy ratcheting: punitive policies increase during periods of high crime and remain in place during periods of low crime.

Factors that influence trust in the police in Mexico

ABSTRACT Despite Mexico’s justice reform, most Mexican citizens do not trust in their criminal justice system. Particularly, public dissatisfaction with the police has not been solved in Mexico. Researchers have examined citizens’ trust in the police to improve public-police relationship in Mexico. Relatively less attention, however, has been made to the theoretical framework, which explores factors such as instrumental and expressive factors that influence the public trust in the police. Thus, using a data set from the Latin American Public Opinion Project, this study conducted multiple regressions to find those factors. Results indicated that neighbourhood security (key instrumental factors) was significantly related to trust in the police. In addition, police corruption showed a negative association with trust in police and public satisfaction with police performance. This study found supporting evidence that securing neighbourhoods builds more confidence in the police among residents. Overall, these results suggest meaningful strategies to improve trust in the Mexico’s police.

Are Peruvians Enticed by the "China Model"? Chinese Investment and Public Opinion in Peru.

China’s economic involvement in Latin America has increased dramatically in the twenty-first century, often due to China’s demand for natural resources. Chinese President Xi Jinping and his government have actively courted Latin America to pave the way for economic interactions. Chinese leaders have been working to foster China’s “soft power” abroad. Nonetheless, we know relatively little about how Latin Americans perceive China and how Latin Americans’ experiences with Chinese firms over the past two decades have shaped their views. Have Chinese efforts at cultivating “soft power” worked? Or have the actions of Chinese mining firms damaged China’s reputation? Using the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) coupled with data on Chinese investments in Peru, I examine Peruvians’ views of China and whether Peruvians think China should be a model for their country. I find that while Peruvians generally trust the Chinese government, only a small proportion prefers China as a model for Peru. The relationship between Chinese investment and public opinion is mixed. However, Peruvians who strongly value democracy are less likely to prefer China as a model for their country. The data also suggest that China still has an opportunity to shape public opinion in Peru, despite conflicts with Peruvian communities over mining projects.

Changes in support for Nicaragua’s Sandinista National Liberation Front during democratic backsliding

This article examines changes in the determinants of support for Nicaragua’s Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), a party that has achieved dominant status during democratic backsliding. Using three waves of Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) surveys from 2006 to 2016, we present binary logit models to test four hypotheses on the evolution of support for the FSLN. Following the theory of how the elite’s cues and messages impact public opinion, we find substantial shifts in the determinants of support for the former guerrilla group as democratic backsliding deepened. We report that the FSLN turned into an ideologically pragmatic party after initially appealing to leftist supporters. Economic views also profoundly impact the party’s support – before and after voters elected it to the presidency in 2006.

Who Is Open to Authoritarian Governance within Western Democracies?

Recent events have raised concern about potential threats to democracy within Western countries. If Western citizens who are open to authoritarian governance share a common set of political preferences, then authoritarian elites can attract mass coalitions that are willing to subvert democracy to achieve shared ideological goals. With this in mind, we explored which ideological groups are most open to authoritarian governance within Western general publics using World Values Survey data from fourteen Western democracies and three recent Latin American Public Opinion Project samples from Canada and the United States. Two key findings emerged. First, cultural conservatism was consistently associated with openness to authoritarian governance. Second, within half of the democracies studied, including all of the English-speaking ones, Western citizens holding a protection-based attitude package—combining cultural conservatism with left economic attitudes—were the most open to authoritarian governance. Within other countries, protection-based and consistently right-wing attitude packages were associated with similarly high levels of openness to authoritarian governance. We discuss implications for radical right populism and the possibility of splitting potentially undemocratic mass coalitions along economic lines.

The police and the public: policing practices and public trust in Latin America

ABSTRACT Over the past two decades, most Latin American countries have struggled to create or reform their police forces while simultaneously confronting sharp increases in violent crime. Reformers have gravitated towards community-oriented policing practices, which aim to rely on preventive tactics and build closer ties between police officers and the public. The implementation of such policing practices can be daunting, particularly for countries with authoritarian histories of policing and/or military repression. When confronting rising crime rates, some new democracies are tempted to revert to authoritarian policing practices and circumvent constitutional safeguards on human rights and civil liberties. Still, some countries have resisted such temptations, and seriously invested in community-oriented policing practices. However, do these community-oriented policing practices lead citizens to trust the police more? Or does public trust depend more heavily on results – particularly in countries undergoing crises in public security? To answer these questions, we analyze public trust in the police in 17 Latin American countries through a series of regression analyses of the Latin American Public Opinion Project’s (LAPOP) 2016–2017 survey data. We find that community-oriented policing practices tend to garner more public trust, but that perceptions of police effectiveness are equally important.

Mapping Right-Wing Women’s Policy Priorities in Latin America

ABSTRACT Do right-wing women hold unique policy priorities from that of left-wing women and right-wing men? And do right-wing women legislators represent the priorities of right-wing citizens? Right-wing women share unique gendered socialization experiences with left-wing women, but their ideology informs values and attitudes critical to policy preference formation. Political representation theories suggest that women legislators should hold distinct incentives to represent female constituents. However, institutional theories suggest right-wing women legislators may face different incentives that limit the extent to which they represent right-wing female constituents. To evaluate our expectations, we leverage survey data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project and the Parliamentary Elites of Latin America. We demonstrate how right-wing women citizens differ from left-wing women citizens across a range of policy priorities. Then, we evaluate elite priorities for these same policy issues. We find little evidence for policy priority congruency between women citizens and women legislators on the right.

Violence and Reconciliation in Colombia: The Personal and the Contextual

In the aftermath of war and large-scale violence, how can nations function as societies? How can people learn to live together again? Or, have the foundations of trust, civility, and predictability upon which fully functioning societies depend been irrevocably damaged? If we want to understand why reconciliation does or does not take root, we must begin by understanding the perspectives and interests of individuals. In this article, I develop such a model of individual attitudes towards reconciliation. In particular, I analyse the determinants of individual beliefs about reconciliation, with a particular emphasis on the impact of violence in Colombia. I combine survey data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project survey on individual attitudes regarding reconciliation with data on political violence to measure the extent to which individuals live in environments characterised by violence and how this shapes their opinions about reconciliation.

The Power of Charisma: Investigating the Neglected Citizen–Politician Linkage in Hugo Chávez's Venezuela

Charisma has long been considered a powerful tool for leaders worldwide to rise to greatness. Yet we have given less attention to the way in which charismatic leaders develop deep, unmediated emotional bonds with their followers. I propose a compact theory that explains how charismatic attachments form, overwhelm alternative linkage types, and facilitate the development of powerful and potentially enduring political movements. To illustrate the theory, I turn to Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian movement in Venezuela. Firstly, the analysis of a 2007 survey from the Latin American Public Opinion Project demonstrates the disproportionate influence of charisma on citizens’ attachments to Bolivarianism relative to competing factors. Next, six original focus groups conducted with Bolivarian followers in 2016 illustrate the mechanisms underlying the followers’ surprisingly resilient loyalty, not only to the leader but also to his overarching movement. The results suggest that affective political attachments can help sustain charismatic movements after their founders disappear.

The role of social capital in the victimization risk against property: evidence from Brazil*

Abstract The economic model of crime presupposes that individuals evaluate the decision to commit a crime rationally. A more inclusive version of this model would include social capital as a factor influencing criminal activity. The amount of social capital that exists within a group can be used to explain criminal behavior, and an increase in the level of social capital can be a factor capable of preventing crime. This study tests the hypothesis that increasing the level of social capital reduces the risk of victimization against property. Results from variations of an IV-Probit model were used to evaluate data from Latin American Public Opinion Project surveys conducted in Brazil. These results suggest that a higher level of social capital among individuals increases the likelihood that they will cooperate for mutual benefit, such as combating crime.

Indigenous unrest and the contentious politics of social assistance in Mexico

Abstract Is social assistance being used to contain ethnic and racial unrest in developing countries? There is a growing literature on social assistance policies in the Global South, but this literature largely focuses on economic and demographic factors, underestimating the importance of contentious politics. The case of Mexico shows that social assistance programs are disproportionately directed to indigenous populations, leading to diminished protest participation. Drawing on data from the 2010, 2012 and 2014 rounds of the Latin American Public Opinion Project, we apply multivariate regression analysis to examine the determinants of social assistance program participation in Mexico. Our study finds that after controlling for income, household size, age, education, and employment status, indigenous ethnic identity is a key determinant in who benefits from social assistance in Mexico. Our results show that high ethnic disparity in social assistance is not only due to higher poverty rates among the indigenous population. Rather, indigenous people receive more social assistance mainly because of their ethnic identity. In addition, this study demonstrates that indigenous people who benefit from social assistance programs are less likely to join anti-government protests. We argue that this ethnic targeting in social assistance is a result of the fact that indigenous unrest has become a political threat for Mexican governments since the 1990s. These results yield substantive support in arguing that the Mexican government uses social assistance to contain indigenous unrest. The existing literature, which is dominated by structuralist explanations, needs to strongly consider the contentious political drivers of social assistance provision in the Global South for a full grasp of the phenomenon. Social assistance in Mexico is driven by social unrest and this suggests that similar ethnic, racial, religious and contentious political factors should be examined in other developing countries to understand social assistance provisions.