Latent Class Trajectory Modeling Research Articles

Associations of Dietary Diversity Trajectories with Frailty among Chinese Older Adults: A Latent Class Trajectory Analysis Based on a CLHLS Cohort.

High dietary diversity has been found to be associated with frailty. However, the trajectory of dietary diversity intake in relation to frailty is unclear. Using the latent class trajectory modeling approach, we identified distinctive dietary variety trajectory groups among 2017 participants based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey acquired at four time points within a 10-year period. Frailty status was assessed using a frailty index comprising 37 health deficits. Dietary diversity was quantified using the dietary variety score (DVS), based on food category consumption frequency. Logistic regression analyses were employed to explore the association between DVS change trajectories and frailty. This study identified two distinct DVS trajectories: "Moderate-Slow decline-Slow growth", encompassing 810 (40.16%) individuals, and "Moderate-Slow growth-Accelerated decline", including 1207 (59.84%) individuals. After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio for DVS in the "Moderate-Slow decline-Slow growth" group was 1.326 (95% confidence interval: 1.075-1.636) compared to the "Moderate-Slow growth-Accelerated decline" group. The "Moderate-Slow decline-Slow growth" trajectory continued to decrease and was maintained at a low level in the early stages of aging. Sustaining a high dietary diversity trajectory over time, particularly in the early stages of aging, could potentially decrease the risk of frailty among older Chinese adults.

Association between trajectories of systolic blood pressure and frailty outcome in middle-aged and older adults

ObjectivesThe association between blood pressure and frailty outcome in the middle-aged and older population remains controversial. This study aimed to examine the relationship between trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and new-onset frailty. DesignCohort study with a 7-year follow-up. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTSData were derived from 4 waves (2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and 6168 participants aged ≥45 years were included in the study. MethodsThe frailty index (FI) was constructed based on 40 scored items, with FI ≥ 0.25 defined as frailty. We identified the 5-year trajectory of SBP by latent class trajectory modeling. The association between SBP trajectories and frailty was explored based on hazard ratios (HR) by four Cox proportional hazards models. Furthermore, we also investigated the relationship between mean SBP and systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) and frailty. Results6168 participants were included in this study with a mean age of 59 years. We identified five trajectories based on SBP, which are maintained low-stable SBP (T0), moderate-stable SBP (T1), remitting then increasing SBP (T2), increasing then remitting SBP (T3), and remaining stable at high SBP levels (T4). During the 7-year follow-up period, frailty outcome occurred in 1415 participants. After adjusting for other confounders, the two trajectories labeled “T2” and “T4” were associated with a higher risk of frailty compared with T0. In addition, elevated SBP and increased SBPV were associated with risk of frailty. ConclusionsHigher risk of frailty occurred in two trajectories, remitting then increasing and remaining stable at high SBP levels, were associated with a relatively higher risk of frailty.

Association of systemic chronic inflammation during pregnancy in different periods and its trajectories with preterm birth.

Systemic chronic inflammation (SCI) is a prevalent characteristic observed in various diseases originating from different tissues, while the association of SCI with preterm birth (PTB) remains uncertain. This study aimed to analyze the association between a nonspecific biomarker of SCI and PTB, while also exploring the trajectories of SCI in pregnant women at risk of PTB. The study used data from the Electronic Medical Record System (EMRS) of a hospital in Zhejiang, China and 9226 pregnant women were included. The duration of pregnancy was categorized into four distinct periods: the first, early-second, late-second, and third trimester. Latent class trajectory modeling (LCTM) was used to identify the trajectories of SCI during pregnancy. The elevated WBC counts in the late-second (OR=1.14, 95% CI: 1.06-1.23) and third (OR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.09-1.24) trimester were both positively associated with an evaluated risk of PTB. Moreover, significant dose-response relationships were observed. There were three distinct SCI trajectories found: progressing SCI (2.89%), high SCI (7.13%), and low SCI (89.98%). Pregnant women with progressive SCI had the highest risk of PTB (OR=3.03, 95% CI: 1.47-6.25). In conclusion, elevated SCI after 23weeks was a risk factor for PTB in healthy women, even if the SCI indicator was within normal range. Pregnant women with progressive SCI during pregnancy had the highest risk of PTB.

Predictors of stress resilience in Parkinson’s disease and associations with symptom progression

People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are sensitive to effects of long-term stress, but might differ in stress resilience, i.e. the ability to maintain mental health despite adversity. It is unclear whether stress resilience in PD is predominantly determined by dopamine deficiency, psychosocial factors, or both. In PD animal models, chronic stressors accelerate disease progression, but evidence in humans is lacking. Our objectives were to (1) distinguish stressor-reactive from resilient PD patients, (2) identify resilience factors, and (3) compare symptom progression between stressor-reactive and resilient patients. We conducted a longitudinal survey in Personalized Parkinson Project participants (N = 350 PD). We used the COVID-19 pandemic as a model of a stressor, aligned in time for the entire cohort. COVID-19-related stressors, perceived stress, and PD symptoms were assessed at 11 timepoints (April-October 2020). Both pre-COVID and in-COVID clinical assessments were available. We quantified stressor-reactivity as the residual between actual and predicted perceived stress relative to COVID-19-related stressors, and modeled trajectories of stressor-reactivity across timepoints. We explored pre-COVID predictors of 6-month average stressor-reactivity, and tested whether stressor-reactivity was prospectively associated with one-year clinical progression rates. Latent class trajectory models distinguished patients with high (N = 123) or low (N = 227) stressor-reactivity. Pre-existing anxiety, rumination and non-motor symptom severity predicted high stressor-reactivity (risk factors), whereas quality of life, social support, positive appraisal style and cognitive abilities predicted low stressor-reactivity (resilience factors). PD-specific factors, e.g. disease duration, motor severity, and levodopa use, did not predict stressor-reactivity. The COVID-19 pandemic did not accelerate disease progression, but worsened depressive symptoms in stressor-reactive PD patients.

Association between triglyceride–glucose index trajectories and radiofrequency ablation outcomes in patients with stage 3D atrial fibrillation

BackgroundThis study investigates the relationship between triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index trajectories and the results of ablation in patients with stage 3D atrial fibrillation (AF).MethodsA retrospective cohort study was carried out on patients who underwent AF Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation (RFCA) at the Cardiology Department of the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University and Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province from January 2016 to December 2022. The main clinical endpoint was determined as the occurrence of atrial arrhythmia for at least 30 s following a 3-month period after ablation. Using a latent class trajectory model, different trajectory groups were identified based on TyG levels. The relationship between TyG trajectory and the outcome of AF recurrence in patients was assessed through Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model.ResultsThe study included 997 participants, with an average age of 63.21 ± 9.84 years, of whom 630 were males (63.19%). The mean follow-up period for the participants was 30.43 ± 17.75 months, during which 200 individuals experienced AF recurrence. Utilizing the minimum Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the maximum Entropy principle, TyG levels post-AF RFCA were divided into three groups: Locus 1 low-low group (n = 791), Locus 2 low-high-low group (n = 14), and Locus 3 high-high group (n = 192). Significant differences in survival rates among the different trajectories were observed through the Kaplan-Meier curve (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed a significant association between baseline TyG level and AF recurrence outcomes (HR = 1.255, 95% CI: 1.087–1.448). Patients with TyG levels above 9.37 had a higher risk of adverse outcomes compared to those with levels below 8.67 (HR = 2.056, 95% CI: 1.335–3.166). Furthermore, individuals in Locus 3 had a higher incidence of outcomes compared to those in Locus 1 (HR = 1.580, 95% CI: 1.146-2).ConclusionThe TyG trajectories in patients with stage 3D AF are significantly linked to the outcomes of AF recurrence. Continuous monitoring of TyG levels during follow-up may help in identifying patients at high risk of AF recurrence, enabling the early application of effective interventions.

Effects of different dietary fiber supplement strategies on incidence of acute gastrointestinal injury in ICU patients: A prospective observational study

ObjectiveThis study aimed to explore the effects of dietary fiber (DF) supplement strategies on the incidence of acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) in critically ill patients. DesignA prospective observational study. SettingThe study was conducted in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from April 2021 to March 2023. MethodsUsing a five-day dietary log counted the amount of DF supplement. The best fitting trajectories of DF supplement were determined based on the latent class trajectory modelling (LCTM). The data of AGI were evaluated on the day 5 (D5) and day 7 (D7) after intensive care unit admission. ResultsA total of 179 patients were included in the study. The LCTM yielded a four-trajectories of models, named; Sustained Low – Group, Slowly Rising – Group, Early Supplement & Slowly Rising – Group and Rapidly Rising – Group, respectively. The incidences of AGI on D5 and D7 were 51.4 % and 40.0 %, respectively. There was an increased risk in the grade of AGI in the Sustained Low – Group compared with the Rapidly Rising – Group on D5 [odds ratio (OR), 4.8; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.9–12.1] and D7 (OR, 12.0; 95 % CI, 3.9–37.0); and an increased risk in the Slowly Rising – Group on D5 (OR, 3.6; 95 % CI, 1.3–9.9). ConclusionThe supplement of DF in critically ill patients may be insufficient and the incidence of AGI is high. Sustained low and slow rising DF supplement may be associated with an increased risk in the AGI. Implications for clinical practiceThe clinical staff could focus on the supplementation of not only the three macronutrients, but also DF in critically ill patients.

Trajectories of health conditions and their associations with the risk of cognitive impairment among older adults: insights from a national prospective cohort study

BackgroundThe associations between trajectories of different health conditions and cognitive impairment among older adults were unknown. Our cohort study aimed to investigate the impact of various trajectories, including sleep disturbances, depressive symptoms, functional limitations, and multimorbidity, on the subsequent risk of cognitive impairment.MethodsWe conducted a prospective cohort study by using eight waves of national data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS 2002–2018), involving 4319 adults aged 60 years or older in the USA. Sleep disturbances and depressive symptoms were measured using the Jenkins Sleep Scale and the Centers for Epidemiologic Research Depression (CES-D) scale, respectively. Functional limitations were assessed using activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), respectively. Multimorbidity status was assessed by self-reporting physician-diagnosed diseases. We identified 8-year trajectories at four examinations from 2002 to 2010 using latent class trajectory modeling. We screened participants for cognitive impairment using the 27-point HRS cognitive scale from 2010 to 2018 across four subsequent waves. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) using Cox proportional hazard models.ResultsDuring 25,914 person-years, 1230 participants developed cognitive impairment. In the fully adjusted model 3, the trajectories of sleep disturbances and ADLs limitations were not associated with the risk of cognitive impairment. Compared to the low trajectory, we found that the increasing trajectory of depressive symptoms (HR = 1.39; 95% CI = 1.17–1.65), the increasing trajectory of IADLs limitations (HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.43–2.46), and the high trajectory of multimorbidity status (HR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.16–1.88) all posed an elevated risk of cognitive impairment. The increasing trajectory of IADLs limitations was associated with a higher risk of cognitive impairment among older adults living in urban areas (HR = 2.30; 95% CI = 1.65–3.21) and those who smoked (HR = 2.77; 95% CI = 1.91–4.02) (all P for interaction < 0.05).ConclusionsThe results suggest that tracking trajectories of depressive symptoms, instrumental functioning limitations, and multimorbidity status may be a potential and feasible screening method for identifying older adults at risk of cognitive impairment.

Dynamic increase in myoglobin level is associated with poor prognosis in critically ill patients: a retrospective cohort study.

Myoglobin is an important biomarker for monitoring critically ill patients. However, the relationship between its dynamic changes and prognosis remains unclear. We retrospectively enrolled 11,218 critically ill patients from a general and surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital between June 2016 and May 2020. Patients with acute cardiovascular events, cardiac and major vascular surgeries, and rhabdomyolysis were excluded. To investigate the early myoglobin distribution, the critically ill patients were stratified according to the highest myoglobin level within 48 h after ICU admission. Based on this, the critically ill patients with more than three measurements within 1 week after ICU admission were included, and latent class trajectory modeling was used to classify the patients. The characteristics and outcomes were compared among groups. Sensitivity analysis was performed to exclude patients who had died within 72 h after ICU admission. Restricted mean survival time regression model based on pseudo values was used to determine the 28-day relative changes in survival time among latent classes. The primary outcome was evaluated with comparison of in-hospital mortality among each Trajectory group, and the secondary outcome was 28-day mortality. Of 6,872 critically ill patients, 3,886 (56.5%) had an elevated myoglobin level (≥150 ng/mL) at admission to ICU, and the in-hospital mortality significantly increased when myoglobin level exceeded 1,000 μg/mL. In LCTM, 2,448 patients were unsupervisedly divided into four groups, including the steady group (n = 1,606, 65.6%), the gradually decreasing group (n = 523, 21.4%), the slowly rising group (n = 272, 11.1%), and the rapidly rising group (n = 47, 1.9%). The rapidly rising group had the largest proportion of sepsis (59.6%), the highest median Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (10), and the highest in-hospital mortality (74.5%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that 98.2% of the patients were classified into the same group as in the original model. Compared with the steady group, the rapidly rising group and the slowly rising group were significantly related to the reduction in 28-day survival time (β = -12.08; 95% CI -15.30 to -8.86; β = -4.25, 95% CI -5.54 to -2.97, respectively). Elevated myoglobin level is common in critically ill patients admitted to the ICU. Dynamic monitoring of myoglobin levels offers benefit for the prognosis assessment of critically ill patients.

The impact of falls on activities of daily living in older adults: A retrospective cohort analysis.

Falls contribute to impairments in activities of daily living (ADLs), resulting in significant declines in the quality of life, safety, and functioning of older adults. Understanding the magnitude and duration of the effect of falls on ADLs, as well as identifying the characteristics of older adults more likely to have post-fall ADL impairment is critical to inform fall prevention and post-fall intervention. The purpose of this study is to 1) Quantify the association between falls and post-fall ADL impairment and 2) Model trajectories of ADL impairment pre- and post-fall to estimate the long-term impact of falls and identify characteristics of older adults most likely to have impairment. Study participants were from the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study, a randomized controlled trial in older adults (age 75+) in the United States. Self-reported incident falls and ADL scores were ascertained every 6 months over a 7-year study period. We used Cox proportional hazards analyses (n = 2091) to quantify the association between falls and ADL impairment and latent class trajectory modeling (n = 748) to visualize trajectories of ADL impairment pre-and post-fall. Falls reported in the previous 6 months were associated with impairment in ADLs (HR: 1.42; 95% CI 1.32, 1.52) in fully adjusted models. Based on trajectory modeling (n = 748), 19% (n = 139) of participants had increased, persistent ADL impairment after falling. Participants who were female, lived in a neighborhood with higher deprivation, or experienced polypharmacy were more likely to have ADL impairment post-fall. Falls are associated with increased ADL impairment, and this impairment can persist over time. It is crucial that all older adults, and particularly those at higher risk of post-fall ADL impairment have access to comprehensive fall risk assessment and evidence-based fall prevention interventions, to help mitigate the negative impacts on ADL function.

Relationship between triglyceride-glucose index baselines and trajectories with incident cardiovascular diseases in the elderly population

BackgroundThe triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is regarded as a sophisticated surrogate biomarker for insulin resistance, offering a refined means for evaluating cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). However, prospective cohort studies have not simultaneously conducted baseline and multi-timepoint trajectory assessments of the TyG index in relation to CVDs and their subtypes in elderly participants.MethodsAfter excluding data deficiencies and conditions that could influence the research outcomes, this study ultimately incorporated a cohort of 20,185 participants, with data chronicles extending from 2016 to 2022. The TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. Latent Class Trajectory Model (LCTM) was used to assess the change trends of the TyG index over multiple time points. Utilizing the Cox proportional-hazards models, we assessed the relationship between the baseline quartiles of the TyG index and various trajectories with CVDs and subtypes.ResultsDuring the mean follow-up time of 4.25 years, 11,099 patients experienced new CVDs in the elderly population. After stratifying by baseline TyG quartiles, the higher TyG level was associated with an increased risk of CVDs; the aHR and 95% CI for the highest quartile group were 1.28 (1.19–1.39). Five trajectory patterns were identified by the LCTM model. The low gradual increase group as the reference, the medium stable group, and the high gradual increase group exhibited an elevated risk of CVDs onset, aHR and 95%CIs were 1.17 (1.10–1.25) and 1.25 (1.15–1.35). Similar results were observed between the trajectories of the TyG index with subtypes of CVDs.ConclusionParticipants with high levels of baseline TyG index and medium stable or high gradual increase trajectories were associated with an elevated risk of developing CVDs in elderly populations.

Heterogeneity in glycaemic control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes: A latent class trajectory analysis of Danish nationwide data.

Suboptimal glycaemic control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes is prevalent and associated with increased risk of diabetes-related complications and mortality later in life. First, we aimed to identify distinct glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories in children and adolescents (2-19 years) with type 1 diabetes. Second, we examined their associations with clinical and socio-demographic factors. Data were obtained from the Danish Registry of Childhood and Adolescent Diabetes (DanDiabKids) comprising all Danish children and adolescents diagnosed with type 1 diabetes from 1996 to 2019. Subgroups of distinct mean trajectories of HbA1c were identified using data-driven latent class trajectory modelling. A total of 5889 children (47% female) had HbA1c measured a median of 6 times (interquartile range 3-8) and contributing to 36,504 measurements. We identified four mean HbA1c trajectories, referred to as 'Stable but elevated HbA1c' (83%), 'Increasing HbA1c' (5%), 'Late HbA1c peak' (7%), and 'Early HbA1c peak' (5%). Compared to the 'Stable but elevated HbA1c' group, the three other groups presented rapidly deteriorating glycaemic control during late childhood or adolescence, had higher HbA1c at study entry, and included fewer pump users, higher frequency of inadequate blood glucose monitoring, more severe hypoglycaemic events, lower proportions with Danish origin, and worse educational status of parents. The groups also represented significant differences by healthcare region. Children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes experience heterogenous trajectories with different timings and magnitudes of the deterioration of HbA1c levels, although the majority follow on average a stable, yet elevated HbA1c trajectory. The causes and long-term health implications of these heterogenous trajectories need to be addressed.

The trajectory of depressive symptoms over time and the presence of depressive symptoms at a single time point with the risk of dementia among US older adults: A national prospective cohort study.

This study aims to assess the association between trajectories of depressive symptoms and the risk of dementia, and to compare the predictive ability of trajectories using multiple data points with depressive symptoms at a single data point. We included 5306 older adults from the Health and Retirement Study. We assessed depressive symptoms using the Center for Epidemiology Depression Scale (CES-D), and identified its 8- year trajectories (2002-2010) using latent class trajectory modeling. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) using Cox proportional hazards models. The concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discriminative power of the models. We identified two trajectories of depressive symptoms, characterized by maintaining low CES-D scores, and moderate starting scores that steadily increased throughout the follow-up period. During 40,199 person-years, compared to the low trajectory, the increasing trajectory of depressive symptoms was associated with a higher risk of dementia (HR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.09-1.67) (C-index = 0.759). For every point increase in the degree of depressive symptoms (CES-D scores) in 2010, the risk of dementia increased by 7% (95% CI: 1.03-1.12) (C-index = 0.760). The presence of depressive symptoms (CES-D scores ≥3) in 2010 was not associated with an increased risk of dementia (HR = 1.18; 95% CI: 0.98-1.43) (C-index = 0.759). The C-index values of cox models showed similar discriminative power. The increasing trajectory of depressive symptoms at multiple data points and the degree of depressive symptoms at a single data point were associated with an increased risk of subsequent dementia among older adults.

Change of the vaginal microbiome with oral contraceptive therapy in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a 6-month longitudinal cohort study

BackgroundThe association between the vaginal microbiome and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is reported, but the longitudinal changes in the vaginal microbiome that accompany oral contraceptive therapy have not been described.MethodsThis cohort study included 50 PCOS patients who wanted to make their menstrual periods more regular and accepted only oral contraceptive therapy and lifestyle coaching, then they were successfully followed up for 6 months. Venous blood was collected, and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), total testosterone (T), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), and estradiol (E2) were assayed at baseline and at months 3 and 6. Vaginal swabs were collected at baseline and at months 3 and 6. 16S rRNA genes were sequenced to identify the microbiota structure. Latent class trajectory models were used to explore the trajectory of the changes in Lactobacillus abundance.ResultsAt 3 months, all patients reported regular periods, and the improvement lasted until 6 months. The body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio decreased with treatment (P < 0.01), and the AMH and T levels showed downward trends. We did not find a statistically significant relationship between hormone levels at the previous time point and the vaginal microbiota at subsequent time points (P > 0.05). The relative abundance of Lactobacillus increased with treatment, and trajectory analysis revealed five classes of Lactobacillus changes. Class 1, stable high level, accounted for 26%; class 2, decrease followed by increase, accounted for 18%; class 3, stable low level, accounted for 10%; class 4, increase, accounted for 20%; class 5, increase followed by decrease, accounted for 26%. Logistic models showed that compared to class 1, a higher baseline T level was associated with a reduced risk of class 2 change (odds ratio (OR) = 0.03, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.01–0.52) and class 4 change (OR = 0.10, 95% CI:0.01–0.93).ConclusionsThe abundance of Lactobacilli increased with PCOS treatment; however, the trajectory was inconsistent for each individual. Evidence of the effects of female hormone levels on the vaginal microbiome is insufficient.

Trajectories of body mass index across the lifecourse and associations with post-menopausal breast cancer by estrogen receptor status

BackgroundAssociations between a high body mass index (BMI) at single timepoints during child- and adulthood and risks of post-menopausal breast cancer are well-established, but associations with BMI across the lifecourse remains largely unknown. Therefore, we examined whether lifecourse BMI trajectories were associated with risks of post-menopausal breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. MethodsWe included 6698 Danish women born 1930–1946. Information on BMI at ages 6–15 years came from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register, and information on BMI at ages 20, 30, 40, 50 and/or 50–64 years came from the Diet, Cancer and Health cohort. Breast cancer cases (n = 577) were identified in the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group database. Six BMI trajectories were identified using latent class trajectory modelling. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression models. ResultsCompared to women with a trajectory characterized by an average BMI gain across life, women with the two trajectories with steep increases in BMI during childhood and adolescence that thereafter largely stabilized, had lower risks of post-menopausal breast cancer and ER-positive tumors. The adjusted HRs for ER-positive tumors were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.47–0.95) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.46–1.01), respectively. In contrast, women with a trajectory with a low gain in BMI during childhood and adolescence followed by a subsequent steep increase during adulthood, had higher risks of post-menopausal breast cancer and ER-positive tumors when compared to women with an average BMI gain. The adjusted HR for ER-positive tumors was 1.28 (95% CI: 0.98–1.67). ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the timing of excess gain in BMI across the lifecourse impacts subsequent post-menopausal breast cancer risks. Thus, the BMI development across life is likely useful in the identification of women at increased risks of post-menopausal breast cancer.

Revealing latent trajectories of (intended) train travel during and after COVID-19

This study investigates whether the decline in public transit ridership is a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a structural shift in travel patterns and attitudes. We estimate a latent class trajectory model using data from a comprehensive and large-scale survey administered by the Dutch national train operator conducted at eight different points in time after the onset of the pandemic. Six latent trajectories in train use and stated future intentions to use the train are revealed, showing different ‘recovery’ pathways. Whereas low-educated frequent commuters travel almost as much as before, highly educated frequent commuters and mixed-purpose travellers still travel much less, even in the last wave when all restrictions are lifted. The results indicate that travellers belonging to these classes have structurally changed their behaviour. The shift to working from home is more pronounced than the shift to private car use.

Naturalistic Bladder Filling Reveals Subtypes in Overactive Bladder Syndrome That Differentially Engages Urinary Urgency-Related Brain Circuits: Results From the Symptoms of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction Research Network (LURN).

Overactive bladder (OAB) may be attributed to dysfunction in supraspinal brain circuits. Overactive bladder participants enrolled in the LURN (Symptoms of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction Research Network) study reported sensations of urinary urgency during a bladder-filling paradigm while undergoing brain functional MRI to map supraspinal dysfunction. OAB participants and controls (CONs) completed 2 resting-state functional MRI scans following consumption of 350 mL water. Scans were conducted at fuller and emptier bladder states, interleaved with voiding. Urgency ratings (0-10) were assessed. Patterns of urgency during bladder filling were investigated using latent class trajectory models. Clusters of participants encompassing each pattern (ie, subtype) were derived from aggregated groups of OAB and CON independent of diagnosis. Two distinct patterns of urgency trajectories were revealed: first subtype with OAB and CON who were unresponsive to bladder filling (OAB-1 and CON-1) and second highly responsive subtype predominantly containing OAB (OAB-2). OAB-2 participants scored significantly higher on urinary symptoms but not pain or psychosocial measures. Neuroimaging analyses showed change in urgency due to both bladder filling and voided volume related to multiple loci of brain network connectivity in OAB-2, and in some cases, different than OAB-1 and/or CON-1. Sensorimotor to dorsomedial/dorsolateral prefrontal connectivity mediated the relationship between stimulus (voided volume) and percept (urgency) in OAB-2. Our results reveal different OAB subtypes with latent class trajectory models of urgency ratings during natural bladder filling. Functional MRI revealed differences in pathophysiology between subtypes, namely sensorimotor-prefrontal connectivity is a key locus in OAB patients with higher urinary symptoms.

Audio-visual integration is more precise in older adults with a high level of long-term physical activity.

It is well established that physical activity leads to numerous health, cognitive, and psychological benefits. However, to date, very few studies have investigated the impact of physical activity on multisensory perception, that is, the brain's capacity to integrate information across sensory modalities. Furthermore, it is unknown what level of long-term physical activity is associated with multisensory integration in adults. We explored the relationship between multisensory integration and a ten-year physical activity trajectory in 2,974 adults aged 50+ from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing by measuring susceptibility to the Sound Induced Flash Illusion (SIFI) at multiple audio-visual temporal asynchronies. Physical activity was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-SF) at 2 years intervals over ten years. We used latent class trajectory modelling to identify latent growth classes of individuals following a similar trajectory of physical activity over time. We analysed the association of this trajectory with performance accuracy to the illusion trials of the SIFI task with generalized logistic mixed effects regression models, adjusted for several covariates. Results showed that more precise integration (i.e., lower SIFI susceptibility with larger temporal asynchronies) was associated with a higher level of sustained physical activity across ten years. Although the use of self-reported physical activity and a short version of the SIFI task limit our conclusions to some extent, nonetheless, the results suggest that sustained physical activity is associated with more precise multisensory integration, which in turn is linked to better balance and a lower risk of falling in older adults.

Trajectories of kidney function and risk of mortality.

We aimed to identify patterns within the rate of kidney function decline, determinants of these patterns and their association with all-cause mortality risk in the general population. Participants aged ≥ 45 years with at least one assessment of creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) taken between 1997 and 2018 were selected from a population-based cohort study. Analyses were performed using several distinct latent class trajectory modelling methods. Cumulative incidences were calculated with 45 years of age as the starting point. In 12062 participants (85922 eGFR assessments, mean age 67.0 years, 58.7% women, median follow-up 9.6 years), four trajectories of eGFR change with age were identified: slow eGFR decline [rate of change in mL/min/1.73m2 per year (RC), -0.9; 95% CI, -0.9 to -0.9; reference group], intermediate eGFR decline (RC, -2.5; 95% CI, -2.7 to -2.5) and fast eGFR decline (RC, -4.3; 95% CI, -4.4 to -4.1), and an increase/stable eGFR (RC, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.4). Women were more likely to have an increase/stable eGFR [odds ratio (OR), 1.94; 95% CI, 1.53 to 2.46] whereas men were more likely to have a fast eGFR decline (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.60). Participants with diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or hypertension were more likely to have an intermediate or fast eGFR decline. All-cause mortality risks (cumulative incidence at age of 70 years) were 32.3% (95% CI, 21.4 to 47.9, slow eGFR decline), 6.7% (95% CI, 3.5 to 12.4, intermediate eGFR decline), 68.8% (95% CI, 44.4 to 87.8, fast eGFR decline) and 9.5% (95% CI, 5.5 to 15.7, increase/stable eGFR). Sex, hypertension, diabetes and CVD were identified as trajectory membership determinants. Having fast eGFR decline was associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality, highlighting the need for extensive monitoring and prevention of kidney function decline in individuals at risk of having fast eGFR decline.

BMI trajectory of rapid and excessive weight gain during adulthood is associated with bone loss: a cross-sectional study from NHANES 2005–2018

BackgroundStudies have examined the effect of weight change on osteoporosis, but the results were controversial. Among them, few had looked at weight change over the life span. This study aimed to fill this gap and investigate the association between lifetime body mass index (BMI) trajectories and bone loss.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, participants at age 50 and above were selected from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2018. Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry was used to measure the bone mineral density at the femoral neck and lumbar spine. Standard BMI criteria were used, with < 25 kg/m2 for normal, 25–29.9 kg/m2 for overweight, and ≥ 30 kg/m2 for obesity. The latent class trajectory model (LCTM) was used to identify BMI trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate the association between different BMI trajectories and osteoporosis or osteopenia.ResultsFor the 9,706 eligible participants, we identified four BMI trajectories, including stable (n = 7,681, 70.14%), slight increase (n = 1253, 12.91%), increase to decrease (n = 195, 2.01%), and rapid increase (n = 577, 5.94%). Compared with individuals in the stable trajectory, individuals in the rapid increase trajectory had higher odds of osteoporosis (OR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.19–4.23) and osteopenia (OR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.02–2.17). This association was only found in the lumbar spine (OR = 2.11, 95% CI 1.06–4.2) but not in the femoral neck. In early-stage (age 25–10 years ago) weight change, staying an obesity and stable weight seemed to have protective effects on osteoporosis (OR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.08–0.77) and osteopenia (OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.25–0.84). Meanwhile, keeping an early-stage stable and overweight was related to lower odds of osteopenia (OR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.34–0.83). No statistically significant association between recent (10 years ago to baseline) weight change and osteoporosis was found.ConclusionsRapid and excess weight gain during adulthood is associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis. But this association varies by skeletal sites. Maintaining stable overweight and obesity at an early stage may have potentially beneficial effects on bone health.

The mediating effect of allostatic load on the association between life course socioeconomic disadvantage and chronic pain: a prospective finding from the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States.

Socioeconomic disadvantages (SEDs) are associated with chronic pain (CP) and allostatic load (AL). Few prospective population-based studies have examined the relationship between life course SED, CP interference, and CP widespreadness, and there is no prospective population-based study on whether AL mediates the association between SED and CP. In this study, we investigated whether the prospective effect of SED on CP at Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) 3 is consistent with the accumulation of risk model and social mobility model, using the National Survey of MIDUS (n = 593). To prepare for the mediation analysis, we tested (1) whether SED would be prospectively associated with AL in the MIDUS 2 biomarker project, (2) whether AL would be prospectively associated with CP, and (3) whether childhood, as a critical period, moderated the association between AL and CP. In addition, the mediating effect of AL on the association between SED and CP was examined. SED was measured using cumulative scores and disadvantage trajectories derived from latent class trajectory modeling (LCTM). After multiple imputations, analyses were conducted using multinomial logistic regression for CP and negative binomial regression for AL, respectively. Finally, mediation analyses and moderated mediation analyses were performed. LCTM identified three SED trajectories, namely, constant low, high to low, and medium to high. The results showed that proximal cumulative SED was associated with high-interference CP. Furthermore, compared with the group with constant low SED, the group with medium-to-high SED was significantly associated with high-interference pain and experienced pain in at least three different sites. Cumulative SED and deteriorating SED trajectories were associated with higher AL, consistent with previous studies. Furthermore, childhood SED moderated the effect of AL on CP widespreadness and unexpectedly demonstrated a protective effect, while other associations between AL and CP were not significant. Subsequent mediation analysis did not yield statistically significant evidence. People who experienced more recent SED or increasing disadvantage throughout their lives were more likely to suffer from CP, and this association was not mediated by physiological system dysregulation caused by chronic stress. Therefore, measures to alleviate AL may not be effective in protecting socioeconomically disadvantaged populations from CP.