Last Glacial Maximum Experiments Research Articles

Unraveling the complexities of the Last Glacial Maximum climate: the role of individual boundary conditions and forcings

Abstract. In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth's orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings.

Hypersensitivity of glacial summer temperatures in Siberia

Abstract. Climate change in Siberia is currently receiving a lot of attention because large permafrost-covered areas could provide a strong positive feedback to global warming through the release of carbon that has been sequestered there on glacial–interglacial timescales. Geological evidence and climate model experiments show that the Siberian region also played an exceptional role during glacial periods. The region that is currently known for its harsh cold climate did not experience major glaciations during the last ice age, including its severest stages around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). On the contrary, it is thought that glacial summer temperatures were comparable to the present day. However, evidence of glaciation has been found for several older glacial periods. We combine LGM experiments from the second and third phases of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2 and PMIP3) with sensitivity experiments using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Together, these climate model experiments reveal that the intermodel spread in LGM summer temperatures in Siberia is much larger than in any other region of the globe and suggest that temperatures in Siberia are highly susceptible to changes in the imposed glacial boundary conditions, the included feedbacks and processes, and to the model physics of the different components of the climate model. We find that changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport drive strong local snow and vegetation feedbacks and that this combination explains the susceptibility of LGM summer temperatures in Siberia. This suggests that a small difference between two glacial periods in terms of climate, ice buildup or their respective evolution towards maximum glacial conditions can lead to strongly divergent summer temperatures in Siberia, allowing for the buildup of an ice sheet during some glacial periods, while during others, above-freezing summer temperatures preclude a multi-year snowpack from forming.

Enhanced Mid‐depth Southward Transport in the Northeast Atlantic at the Last Glacial Maximum Despite a Weaker AMOC

AbstractWhile previous studies consistently suggest that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) was shallower at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than at pre‐industrial, its strength is still controversial. Here, using a series of LGM experiments, we show that proxy records are consistent with a shallower and 50% weaker NADW, associated with a 3° equatorward shift of the sea ice edge and convection sites in the Norwegian Sea. A shoaling and weakening of NADW further allow penetration of Antarctic Bottom Water in the North Atlantic, despite Antarctic Bottom Water transport being reduced by 40%. While the Deep Western Boundary Current in the northwest Atlantic weakens with NADW, the mid‐depth southward flow on the east side of the north Mid‐Atlantic Ridge strengthens, consistent with paleorecords. This northeast Atlantic intensification is due to a change in density gradients: a weaker AMOC reduces the transport of equatorial waters to the northeast Atlantic, thus weakening the North Atlantic zonal density gradient. The resultant globally weaker oceanic circulation at the LGM would have contributed to an increase in oceanic carbon content and thus a decrease in atmospheric CO concentration.

Effect of high dust amount on surface temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum: a modelling study using MIROC-ESM

Abstract. The effect of aerosols is one of many uncertain factors in projections of future climate. However, the behaviour of mineral dust aerosols (dust) can be investigated within the context of past climate change. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is known to have had enhanced dust deposition in comparison with the present, especially over polar regions. Using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM), we conducted a standard LGM experiment following the protocol of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 3 and sensitivity experiments. We imposed glaciogenic dust on the standard LGM experiment and investigated the impacts of glaciogenic dust and non-glaciogenic dust on the LGM climate. Global mean radiative perturbations by glaciogenic and non-glaciogenic dust were both negative, consistent with previous studies. However, glaciogenic dust behaved differently in specific regions; e.g. it resulted in less cooling over the polar regions. One of the major reasons for reduced cooling is the ageing of snow or ice, which results in albedo reduction via high dust deposition, especially near sources of high glaciogenic dust emission. Although the net radiative perturbations in the lee of high glaciogenic dust provenances are negative, warming by the ageing of snow overcomes this radiative perturbation in the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, the radiative perturbation due to high dust loading in the troposphere acts to warm the surface in areas surrounding Antarctica, primarily via the longwave aerosol–cloud interaction of dust, and it is likely the result of the greenhouse effect attributable to the enhanced cloud fraction in the upper troposphere. Although our analysis focused mainly on the results of experiments using the atmospheric part of the MIROC-ESM, we also conducted full MIROC-ESM experiments for an initial examination of the effect of glaciogenic dust on the oceanic general circulation module. A long-term trend of enhanced warming was observed in the Northern Hemisphere with increased glaciogenic dust; however, the level of warming around Antarctica remained almost unchanged, even after extended coupling with the ocean.

Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

Abstract. In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm) in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial times (PI). In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon–climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon–climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon–climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment as in the PI experiment. For PI, ocean and land contributions to the total feedback are of similar size, while in the LGM case the terrestrial feedback is dominant.

Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments

Abstract. We describe the creation of a data set describing changes related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and elevation of ice-free land at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which were used in LGM experiments conducted as part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The CMIP5/PMIP3 data sets were created from reconstructions made by three different groups, which were all obtained using a model-inversion approach but differ in the assumptions used in the modelling and in the type of data used as constraints. The ice-sheet extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) does not vary substantially between the three individual data sources. The difference in the topography of the NH ice sheets is also moderate, and smaller than the differences between these reconstructions (and the resultant composite reconstruction) and ice-sheet reconstructions used in previous generations of PMIP. Only two of the individual reconstructions provide information for Antarctica. The discrepancy between these two reconstructions is larger than the difference for the NH ice sheets, although still less than the difference between the composite reconstruction and previous PMIP ice-sheet reconstructions. Although largely confined to the ice-covered regions, differences between the climate response to the individual LGM reconstructions extend over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northern Hemisphere continents, partly through atmospheric stationary waves. Differences between the climate response to the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and any individual ice-sheet reconstruction are smaller than those between the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and the ice sheet used in the last phase of PMIP (PMIP2).

Effects of physical changes in the ocean on the atmospheric pCO2: glacial-interglacial cycles

Based on LGM experiments with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, we systematically investigated the effects of physical changes in the ocean and induced biological effects as well on the low atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Numerical experiments with an oceanic carbon-cycle model showed that pCO2 was lowered by ~30 ppm in the LGM ocean. Most of the pCO2 reduction was explained by the change in CO2 solubility in the ocean due to lower sea surface temperature (SST) during the LGM. Moreover, we found that SST changes in the high-latitude Northern Atlantic could explain more than one-third of the overall change in pCO2 induced by global SST change, suggesting an important feedback between the Laurentide ice sheet and pCO2.

A Comparison of Climate Feedback Strength between CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments

Abstract Studies of the climate in the past potentially provide a constraint on the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, but previous studies warn against a simple scaling to the future. Climate sensitivity is determined by a number of feedback processes, and they may vary according to climate states and forcings. In this study, the similarities and differences in feedbacks for CO2 doubling, a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and LGM greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing experiments are investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. After computing the radiative forcing, the individual feedback strengths of water vapor, lapse-rate, albedo, and cloud feedbacks are evaluated explicitly. For this particular model, the difference in the climate sensitivity between the experiments is attributed to the shortwave cloud feedback, in which there is a tendency for it to become weaker or even negative in cooling experiments. No significant difference is found in the water vapor feedback between warming and cooling experiments by GHGs. The weaker positive water vapor feedback in the LGM experiment resulting from a relatively weaker tropical forcing is compensated for by the stronger positive lapse-rate feedback resulting from a relatively stronger extratropical forcing. A hypothesis is proposed that explains the asymmetric cloud response between the warming and cooling experiments associated with a displacement of the region of mixed-phase clouds. The difference in the total feedback strength between the experiments is, however, relatively small compared to the current intermodel spread, and does not necessarily preclude the use of LGM climate as a future constraint.

Impact of a realistic river routing in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate

The presence of large ice sheets over North America and North Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) strongly impacted Northern hemisphere river pathways. Despite the fact that such changes may significantly alter the freshwater input to the ocean, modified surface hydrology has never been accounted for in coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model simulations of the LGM climate. To reconstruct the LGM river routing, we use the ICE-5G LGM topography. Because of the uncertainties in the extent of the Fennoscandian ice sheet in the Eastern part of the Kara Sea, we consider two more realistic river routing scenarios. The first scenario is characterised by the presence of an ice dammed lake south of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and corresponds to the ICE-5G topography. This lake is fed by the Ob and Yenisei rivers. In the second scenario, both these rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean, which is more consistent with the latest QUEEN ice sheet margin reconstructions. We study the impact of these changes on the LGM climate as simulated by the IPSL_CM4 model and focus on the overturning thermohaline circulation. A comparison with a classical LGM simulation performed using the same model and modern river basins as designed in the PMIP2 exercise leads to the following conclusions: (1) The discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean is increased by 2,000 m3/s between 38° and 54°N in both simulations that contain LGM river routing, compared to the classical LGM experiment. (2) The ice dammed lake is shown to have a weak impact, relative to the classical simulation, both in terms of climate and ocean circulation. (3) In contrast, the North Atlantic deep convection and meridional overturning are weaker than during the classical LGM run if the Ob and Yenisei rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean. The total discharge into the Arctic Ocean is increased by 31,000 m3/s, relative to the classical LGM simulation. Consequentially, northward ocean heat transport is weaker, and sea ice more extensive, in better agreement with existing proxy data.

A modelling reconstruction of the last glacial maximum ice sheet and its deglaciation in the vicinity of the northern patagonian icefield, south america

ABSTRACT. A time‐dependent model is used to investigate the interaction between climate, extent and fluctuations of Patagonian ice sheet between 45° and 48°S during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and its subsequent deglaciation. The model is applied at 2 km resolution and enables ice thickness, lithospheric response and ice deformation and sliding to interact freely and is perturbed from present day by relative changes in sea level and equilibrium line altitude (ELA). Experiments implemented to identify an LGM configuration compatible with the available empirical record, indicate that a stepped ELA lowering of 750 to 950 m is required over 15000 years to bracket the Fenix I‐V suite of moraines at Lago Buenos Aires. However, 900 m of ELA lowering yields an ice sheet which best matches the Fenix V moraine (c. 23000 a BP) and Caldenius’ reconstructed LGM limit for the entire modelled area. This optimum LGM experiment yields a highly dynamic, low aspect ice sheet, with a mean ice thickness of c. 1130 m drained by numerous large ice streams to the western, seaward margin and two large, fast‐flowing outlet lobes to the east. Forcing this scenario into deglaciation using a re‐scaled Vostok ice core record results in an ice sheet that slowly shrinks by 25% to c. 14500 a bp, after which it experiences a rapid collapse, loosing some 85% of its volume in c. 800 years. Its margins stabilize during the Antarctic Cold Reversal after which it shrinks to near present‐day limits by 11 000 a bp.

Modeling the water masses of the Atlantic Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum

We produced gridded monthly sea‐surface boundary conditions for the Atlantic Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) based on the sea‐surface temperature reconstruction of the GLAMAP project. We used an ocean general circulation model (OGCM), subject to these sea‐surface boundary conditions and a corresponding wind stress field from an atmospheric general circulation model, to study the differences in the distribution of the main water masses between the LGM and the present. Our global OGCM is characterized by high vertical resolution, low vertical diffusion, and isopycnal mixing and hence allows for a realistic representation of the hydrology and circulation of the modern Atlantic Ocean. According to a series of LGM experiments with an increasing sea‐surface salinity anomaly in the Weddell Sea, the ventilated thermocline was colder than today by 2–3°C in the North Atlantic Ocean and, in the experiment with the largest anomaly (1.0 beyond the global anomaly), by 4–5°C in the South Atlantic Ocean. Its depth was reduced by 50 m on average, most notably in the tropics. In the North Atlantic Ocean the outcrop locations of the thermocline isopycnal surfaces migrated southward by 5°–10°, and the ventilation increased. In the South Atlantic Ocean the mixed layer and thermocline water masses were dominated by cold water originating from Drake Passage, and the import of warm water from the Indian Ocean was reduced to about 4 Sv or 40% of its modern value. Antarctic Intermediate Water was colder by 3–4°C and could be traced as far as 10°N. The meridional overturning rates of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in the Atlantic Ocean were similar to those of the present‐day experiment (9–10 Sv and 4 Sv, respectively). However, NADW cooled by 2.5°C and AABW by 1°C. AABW was near the freezing point of seawater at the surface and the saltiest water mass in the Atlantic Ocean, even saltier than NADW. We show that the differences between the LGM and the present‐day experiments can be traced back to the changes in the subpolar and interhemispheric sea‐surface density gradients.

On the hydrological cycle under paleoclimatic conditions as derived from AGCM simulations

The atmospheric hydrological cycle is compared for different time slices of the late Quaternary. Simulations have been conducted with an atmospheric circulation model at T42 resolution, and we have performed a global evaluation of the atmospheric water vapor transport. The water export from the Atlantic catchment area, important for driving the large‐scale thermohaline ocean circulation, is analyzed in detail. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), we examine the model's sensitivity with respect to tropical cooling relative to the CLIMAP reconstruction which is motivated by recent data. We find that the LGM experiment with tropical cooling is in better agreement with proxy data available. Our experiments indicate that the water vapor transport is strongly affected by three mechanisms: continental drying, eddy moisture transport, and changes in the tropical circulation. Except for the continental drying and the blocking effect of the Laurentide ice sheet, the hydrological cycle is substancially different for both LGM experiments. We find that the hydrological system is rather sensitive to tropical temperature change which is important to understand paleoclimate and future climate changes.