Large Emerging Market Economies Research Articles

New perspectives on the rise and fall of global imbalances: evidence from large emerging market economies

New perspectives on the rise and fall of global imbalances: evidence from large emerging market economies

Asymmetric Impact of Structural Shocks of Crude Oil Price on Equity Market in Two Large Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from China and India

The objective of this particular study is to understand the asymmetric impact of structural shocks (in terms of supply and demand shocks on crude oil price) on equity market returns in the context of the largest two emerging market economies, that is, China and India. The timeframe of this study is January 1996 to January 2022. The study has been conducted, based on monthly data. The present study employs a structural vector auto regression as well as NARDL model to understand the asymmetry of these structural shocks. Our findings are in contradiction to the popular perception of the Press that crude oil price and equity market returns are inversely related. The present study found that different structural shocks have very different impacts on the stock returns. Our study also adds to the existing literature, as it showed that both the Chinese and Indian markets react in similar fashion to structural shocks in the crude oil market. Structural shocks have no impact on the Indian market, whereas there is a significant asymmetric impact of only precautionary demand shock in, both, the long and short runs, in the context of the Chinese market.

Asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty on real sector variables in emerging markets: evidence from Brazil, India, China and South Africa

PurposeThis study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India and South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThe study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling framework.FindingsThe results showed that both in the long run and short run, rising uncertainty not only increases consumer prices significantly in these economies, but also impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths, and deters investment, employment and private consumption. Contrary to economic expectation, the results also showed that in the long run, declining uncertainty impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths in these economies, and significantly hinders employment in South Africa and Brazil. This suggests that in the long run, economic agents in these economies somewhat behave as if uncertainty is rising. The authors also found significant asymmetric effects in the response of real sector variables to uncertainty both in the long run and short run, which justifies the choice of NARDL framework for this study.Research limitations/implicationsThe sample is limited to Brazil, India, China and South Africa. While Brazil, India and China are three of the most prominent large emerging market economies, South Africa is the largest emerging market economy in Africa.Practical implicationsTo lessen the adverse effects of policy uncertainty observed in the results, there is need for sound institutions and policy regimes that can promote predictable policy responses in these economies so that policy neither serves as a source of uncertainty nor as a channel through which the effects of other shocks are transmitted.Originality/valueApart from using the NARDL framework to capture the asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty, this study also accounted for the sectoral effects of uncertainty in emerging markets.

International Real Estate Review

Using a non-causality approach based on the conventional approach of Fama and Schwert (1977), cointegration method in Johansen (1988), and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique in Pesaran et al. (2001) and Granger et al. (2000), this study examines the inflation hedging effectiveness of residential property in three of the largest emerging market (EM) economies: China, India and Russia. While the results of the Fama and Schwert (1977) regression indicate that residential properties in China and Russia provide a short-term hedge against expected inflation, this is not the case for those in India against both expected and unexpected inflation. Consistent with the results of the developed economies, the Johansen and ARDL cointegration results provide strong evidence to support the hypothesis that inflation and the residential properties in the three largest EM economies are cointegrated. This implies that the residential properties in these three countries provide a long-term hedge for inflation. In addition, the causality results show evidence that inflation has a lead effect on residential property prices in India over the long run. The empirical results of the cointegration tests confirm that residential properties could be considered as a reliable hedge against inflation for EMs in the long run and suggest that investors should overweigh their investment in residential property assets during periods of persistent inflation in EMs.

Unveiling the causal interactions among theUSmonetary policy uncertainty, exchange market pressure, andFDI‐flowsin large emerging market economies

This study shows how exchange market pressure, FDI inflow, and FDI outflow in large emerging market economies interact with monetary policy uncertainty from the United States (US). A panel of 14 countries were examined using bootstrap Granger causality procedure that captures cross‐sectional dependence, reflecting the shared developmental features among emerging economies. In the panel of countries, two‐way relationships were unveiled between the US monetary policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure, between the US monetary policy uncertainty and FDI inflow, between the US monetary policy uncertainty and FDI outflow, between the exchange market pressure and FDI inflow, and between the exchange market pressure and FDI outflow. However, there are variations in country‐specific results. Most importantly, a feedback relationship exists between the US monetary policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in two countries, while one‐way causality runs from monetary policy uncertainty to exchange market pressure in five countries and from exchange market pressure to monetary policy uncertainty in two countries. No causality was found in five countries. Causality also flows from US monetary policy uncertainty to FDI inflow in six countries and to FDI outflow in one country.

Behavioural​ equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments: Evidence from large emerging markets

In order to contribute to the debate on whether exchange rate under-valuation was a major factor in global trade imbalances that culminated in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we estimate long-run equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for a panel of eight large emerging market economies (EMEs) over 1995–2017 based on structural factors. These include EME-AE (advanced economy) differentials in productivity, dependency and financial development, along with factors like trade openness, sectoral relative price and fiscal procyclicality. Amongst the dominant factors, we find that rising relative productivity appreciates ERER, but is offset by an almost equal depreciation from financial development. Estimated misalignments show both EME under- and over-valuation before the GFC, with under-valuation more prominent in Russia and Turkey. China, India, Indonesia and Mexico were experiencing a correction towards equilibrium from over-valued rates a year or two before the GFC. Post-GFC appreciation in EME ERERs compared to pre-GFC years indicates convergence in EME-AE prices, but misalignments were more in the zone of under-valuation during the period. The absence of substantial under-valuation in pre-GFC years indicates that EME RER misalignments were not a major cause of the GFC. Impulse responses show the limited impact of misalignments on current account imbalances, suggesting that the incentive to devalue was low.

Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies

Using annual data for a panel of eight large emerging market economies from 1980 to 2015, we uncover the underlying linkages between government size, unemployment, and inflation by using the panel cointegration and causality frameworks. Overall, our empirical results show that there exists a unidirectional causality running from government size to both unemployment and inflation. The results also tell that the impact of government size on unemployment and inflation varies with how government size is defined or measured. In the case of the ratio of government consumption spending to GDP is chosen as the proxy measure of government size, the causality is one-way and runs from government size to both unemployment and inflation. In addition, indirect taxes are in a significant positive causal association with unemployment, while direct taxes are in a close connection with inflation in the full-country sample.

Examining the Effect of Globalization on Insurance Activities in Large Emerging Market Economies

This study applies the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag long-run estimation technique alongside bootstrap panel Granger causality testing to examine the impact of globalization on insurance market activities in large emerging market economies. Economic, social and political globalization indices are considered separately. Two alternative measures of globalization (de facto and de jure) are also used in each case for our estimations. The empirical results confirm the following; first, empirical outcomes are slightly sensitive to the choice of globalization measure used. Second, cross-sectional dependence and cross-country heterogeneity exist among large emerging market economies. Third, causality varies across large emerging economies with different conditions. We make a case for de facto measures as the most appropriate since they reflect actual practices rather than policy claims. We thus reach the conclusion that all dimensions of globalization positively impact life and non-life insurance density.

Optimal Inflation in Russia: Theory and Practice

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of optimality of the Bank of Russia’s inflation target. It considers the theoretical framework of optimal inflation, international practice of inflation target setting, and econometric estimates. The paper summarizes the theoretical mechanisms of optimality of zero or positive inflation and concludes that there are a significant number of mechanisms leading to optimality of positive inflation in the literature. Further, the countries’ experience of inflation targeting is analyzed, and the value of the inflation target and the frequency of its revision in Russia, developed countries and emerging market economies are compared. The article also provides the authors’ estimates of optimal inflation based on the application of the panel threshold regression method for four groups of countries, including Russia, for the period 1990–2018: the largest emerging market economies; emerging market economies with export as a key source of income; post-Soviet countries; and countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The study provides some empirical evidence in favor of the optimal inflation rate varying from 3.5% to 4% for homogeneous samples of countries, including Russia. The results also show that low inflation (up to the threshold level equal to the inflation target in Russia) is associated with economic growth. The study concludes that the current inflation target in Russia is valid and provides some suggestions regarding further improvements of inflation targeting policy in Russia.

Growing (un)equal: fiscal policy and income inequality in China and BRIC+

This article investigates the empirical characteristics of income inequality in China and other large emerging market economies over the period 1980–2013, with a focus on the redistributive contribution of fiscal policy. Using instrumental variable techniques to deal with potential endogeneity, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis of the existence of a Kuznets curve – an inverted U-shaped relationship between income inequality and economic development – in China and the panel of BRIC + countries. In the case of China, the empirical results indicate that government spending and taxation have opposing effects on income inequality. While government spending appears to have a worsening impact, taxation improves income distribution. Even though the redistributive effect of fiscal policy in China appears to be stronger than what we identify in the BRIC + panel, it is not large enough to compensate for the adverse impact of other influential factors.

A Coherent Framework for Predicting Emerging Market Credit Spreads with Support Vector Regression

We propose a coherent framework using support vector regression (SRV) for generating and ranking a set of high quality models for predicting emerging market sovereign credit spreads. Our framework adapts a global optimization algorithm employing an hv-block cross-validation metric, pertinent for models with serially correlated economic variables, to produce robust sets of tuning parameters for SRV kernel functions. In contrast to previous approaches identifying a single "best" tuning parameter setting, a task that is pragmatically improbable to achieve in many applications, we proceed with a collection of tuning parameter candidates, employing the Model Confidence Set test to select the most accurate models from the collection of promising candidates. Using bond credit spread data for three large emerging market economies and an array of input variables motivated by economic theory, we apply our framework to identify relatively small sets of SVR models with su perior out-of-sample forecasting performance. Benchmarking our SRV forecasts against random walk and conventional linear model forecasts provides evidence for the notably superior forecasting accuracy of SRV-based models. In contrast to routinely used linear model benchmarks, the SRV-based models can generate accurate forecasts using only a small set of input variables limited to the country-specific credit-spread-curve factors, lending some support to the rational expectation theory of the term structure in the context of emerging market credit spreads. Consequently, our evidence indicates a better ability of highly flexible SVR to capture investor expectations about future spreads reflected in today's credit spread curve.

Transforming Agri-Food Sectors to Mitigate Climate Change: The Role of Green Finance

Summary: Globally, food systems have become heavily industrialized and are currently threatening both environmental sustainability and human health. Feeding a growing world while remaining within safe social-ecological planetary boundaries, as dictated by the UN Social Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement, is feasible but requires a paradigmatic shift in agricultural value chains and their financing: a “Great Food Transformation.” Tracing today’s agri-food main global developmental and financial trends, this paper proposes a set of financially-oriented public policies to accelerate this transition with a focus on advanced and large emerging market economies. Suggested measures include public lending, insurance and guarantee schemes to aid the transition; financial training schemes; changes to prudential regulation to account for financial risks of non-sustainable farming; alongside a bolder approach to ESG investment of public funds and steps to expand green and sustainable bond markets.

The impact of natural gas and renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions and economic growth in two major emerging market economies.

For the last three decades, both China and India are considered as the largest emerging market economies in the world. Both of these economies play an essential role in the global economy in terms of economic output and CO2 emissions. Hence, these countries are expected to play an important role in setting up environmental and sustainable development policies. Therefore, our paper aims to examine the role of natural gas and renewable energy consumptions on CO2 emissions and economic growth during 1965-2016 within a multivariate framework. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is employed to explore the long-run and causal nexus among the natural gas consumption, renewable energy consumption, coal and petroleum consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth, respectively. The empirical results show existence of long-run equilibrium association among the variables. The Granger causality results indicate that the short-run bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in India, while no causality is found between these two variables in China. However, natural gas consumption causes economic growth in China whereas no causality is confirmed in India in the short-run. The findings further suggest that there is long-run bidirectional causality among the considered variables in both countries. Our paper addresses several important policy implications.

The Shape of ‘Rising Powers’ to Come? The Antinomies of Growth and Neoliberal Development in Turkey

ABSTRACT The short-term GDP growth-based economic success of the BRICS has spawned a trend of grouping large emerging market economies under shared monikers. The proliferation of a wide array of labels – from MINTs to VISTAs – within political and financial circles has been accompanied by a growing scholarly interest in the study of these ‘emerging markets’ and future ‘rising powers’. This paper discusses the literature on Turkey’s ‘rising power’ status to problematise the conceptual and analytical parameters that shape these wider debates. Accordingly, I argue that the established parameters are wholly based in, and in turn reproduce, a neoliberal conception of development which prioritises a narrowly construed metric of economic progress based on GDP growth, while simultaneously ignoring the associated socio-economic and environmental costs. The paper interrogates the ways in which select macroeconomic indicators have been deployed to legitimise neoliberal reform in Turkey and utilises this case study to mount a methodological challenge to the relevant IR/IPE literatures that conceptualise ‘emerging markets’ and ‘rising powers’ from growth-oriented perspectives.

Revisiting Fundamental Indexation: A Deep Dive into Revenue

The capital shift to passive investing is among the most important evolutions in investment management in the last four decades. Striking in its magnitude and relative speed of adoption, the significance for asset management, and investors more broadly, is still not well understood. Those switching to passive investing have predominantly turned to indexing, with broad-based market and asset class indices seeing the vast majority of these inflows. Moreover, indexing has been dominated by a simple market-capitalization weighting mechanism. In this study, we bring new evidence to bear on the optimal weighting of indexing strategies for those wanting broad-based exposure to equities in both the U.S. and abroad. In particular, we document three main findings: (1) along with several other methodologies, revenue weighting has outperformed market-capitalization weighting in both absolute returns and return per-unit-risk over the past 40 years in the U.S., (2) revenue weighting provides more stable exposures to industries over this period, and (3) while the international evidence is more mixed, in developed markets and in the largest emerging market economies, revenue weighting appears to dominate market-cap weighting in terms of return and return per-unit-risk over the recent history through present-day. Given the totality of evidence, revenue weighting appears to be a fitting alternative when considering an allocation to broad indexation approaches.

Permanent income hypothesis in emerging markets: Some Brazilian evidence

Abstract This paper uses a dataset from one of the largest credit card issuers in Brazil to investigate the extent of credit constraints for one of the world's largest emerging market economies. In order to deal with the endogeneity problem from an observational dataset, an identification strategy based on the issuer actual policies was used to better identify the long run effects of a credit card limit increase on debt. The results point to a long run effect of credit limit on credit card debts of 0.1144, a similar size to the ones found in Gross and Souleles (2001) . This value indicates the Permanent Income Hypothesis is rejected for this sample, and some evidence supporting a variation of buffer stock behavior is found. Furthermore, results indicate the degree of heterogeneity in effects is much higher than similar results for developed countries, lending credence to the conclusion credit constraints are much stronger for lower income groups. This conclusion is in line to previous studies in Brazil, such as de Lucinda and Vieira (2014) .

Government Size, Unemployment, and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies

Using a panel of eight large emerging market economies from 1980 to 2015, this paper seeks to assess the causal linkages between government size, unemployment, and inflation. Overall, our results suggest that the government size is positively associated with both unemployment and inflation. The Granger causality runs from the government size to unemployment and to inflation. From our analysis, two aspects stand out. First, the effects of government size on unemployment and inflation depend essentially on how the government size is measured. As long as government consumption spending is considered as the proxy measure of the government size, the government size is significantly and positively correlated with unemployment, and with inflation. Second, indirect taxes, like government consumption spending, have a positive as well as statistically significant association with unemployment. However, the direct taxes solely exert a strong effect on inflation in the countries considered.

How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?

The seven largest emerging market economies -- China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey -- constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, called EM7, are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. The authors provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. They report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally.

A strategic perspective of cross-listing by emerging market firms: Evidence from Indonesia, Mexico, Poland and South Africa

This paper develops an approach to the analysis of cross-listing that brings together the financial and non-financial benefits of the phenomenon. We employ the real options framework, which offers a detailed characterisation of the strategic issues associated with cross-listing, in the context of internationalisation of emerging market firms. The associated hypotheses are tested using firm-level data from four large emerging market economies with different profiles in terms of institutional quality and financial development. This allows us to extend the existing literature by isolating the relative importance of institutional quality and financial development for the benefits of cross-listing.

Trend and cyclical decoupling: new estimates based on spectral causality tests and wavelet correlations

The issue of decoupling of emerging market economies (EMEs) (especially in the Asian region) from the developments in advanced economies has become a subject of lively debate in recent years. Basically, decoupling seems to comprise three sub-hypotheses: (i) growth spillovers from advanced countries to EMEs decreasing progressively in importance, (ii) business cycles in EMEs becoming less synchronized with those of the advanced world and (iii) strengthening of growth spillovers and cyclical synchronization among the EMEs as a group. The received literature fails to distinguish adequately between the trend and cyclical aspects of the decoupling relationship. We resort to two frequency domain methods (nonstationary spectral causality testing and wavelet correlations), which seem to offer a neat separation of trend and cyclical decoupling. Based on a sample of seven EMEs from the Asian region (including the two large EMEs – China and India), we uncover strong evidence favouring both trend and cyclical decoupling.