Large-scale Feedbacks Research Articles

Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model

Changes in sub-daily precipitation extremes potentially lead to large impacts of climate change due to their influence on soil erosion, landslides, and flooding. However, these changes are still rather uncertain, with only limited high-resolution results available and a lack of fundamental knowledge on the processes leading to sub-daily extremes. Here, we study the response of hourly extremes in a convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) for an idealized warming experiment—repeating present-day observed weather under warmer and moister conditions. Ten months of simulation covering summer and early autumn for two domains over western Central Europe and western Mediterranean are performed. In general, we obtain higher sensitivities to warming for local-scale extreme precipitation at the original grid-scale of 2.5–3 km than for aggregated analyses at a scale of 12–15 km, representative for currently conventional regional climate models. The grid-scale sensitivity over sea, and in particular over the Mediterranean Sea, approaches 12%–16% increase per degree, close to two times the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. In contrast, over the dry parts of Spain the sensitivity is close to the CC rate of 6%–7% per degree. For other land areas, sensitivities are in between these two values, with a tendency for the cooler and more humid areas to show lower scaling rates for the most intense hourly precipitation, whereas the land area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea shows the opposite behaviour with the largest increases projected for the most extreme hourly precipitation intensities. While our experimental setup only estimates the thermodynamic response of extremes due to moisture increases, and neglects a number of large-scale feedbacks that may temper future increases in precipitation extremes, some of the sensitivities reported here reflect findings from observational trends. Therefore, our results can provide guidance within which to understand recent observed trends and for future climate projections with CPRCMs.

Influence of larval outbreaks on the climate reconstruction potential of an Arctic shrub

Arctic shrubs have a strong potential for climate and environmental reconstructions in the chronically understudied regions of the high northern latitudes. The climate dynamics of these regions are important to understand because of large-scale feedbacks to the global climate system. However, little is known about other factors influencing shrub ring growth, possibly obscuring their climate signal. For example, as of yet we are not able to differentiate between herbivory or climatically induced growth depressions. Here, we use one of the most common Arctic shrubs, Alnus viridis as a test case to address this question. We sampled Alnus in Kobbefjord, Greenland, measured shrub-ring width and cell wall thickness and built site chronologies of each parameter. We analysed climate-growth relationships, tested their stability over time and employed a pointer-year analysis to detect growth depressions. We employed bootstrapped transfer function stability tests (BTFS) to assess the suitability of our shrub chronologies for climate reconstruction. Correlations with climate data showed strong significantly positive and stable correlations between summer temperature and ring-width with the exception of the recent decade. A climate reconstruction model failed stability tests, when the complete period of record was used for calibration and verification. Wood anatomy analysis uncovered the occurrence of unusual cell structure (very thin cell walls) in the exceptionally narrow ring of 2004, a recorded insect outbreak year in other parts of Greenland. When excluding the affected ring and a recovery period, the reconstruction model passed all tests, suggesting that the unusual 2004 ring was not climate driven, but rather the result of an insect attack. When combining anatomical analysis with traditional ring-width measurements, we move a step further in potentially distinguishing small rings caused by insect attacks from small rings formed in climatically challenging years. While this study does not provide unambiguous evidence, it does provide potential useful methodological combinations to enable more robust climate reconstructions in areas where climatic records are extremely sparse.

Substantial large-scale feedbacks between natural aerosols and climate

The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol. Natural aerosol sources alter climate, but are also strongly controlled by climate, leading to the potential for natural aerosol–climate feedbacks. Here we use a global aerosol model to make an assessment of terrestrial natural aerosol–climate feedbacks, constrained by observations of aerosol number. We find that warmer-than-average temperatures are associated with higher-than-average number concentrations of large (>100 nm diameter) particles, particularly during the summer. This relationship is well reproduced by the model and is driven by both meteorological variability and variability in natural aerosol from biogenic and landscape fire sources. We find that the calculated extratropical annual mean aerosol radiative effect (both direct and indirect) is negatively related to the observed global temperature anomaly, and is driven by a positive relationship between temperature and the emission of natural aerosol. The extratropical aerosol–climate feedback is estimated to be −0.14 W m−2 K−1 for landscape fire aerosol, greater than the −0.03 W m−2 K−1 estimated for biogenic secondary organic aerosol. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude to other biogeochemical feedbacks, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations.

The Role of Large-Scale Feedbacks in Cumulus Convection Parameter Estimation

AbstractUncertainty in cumulus convection parameterization is one of the most important causes of model climate drift through interactions between large-scale background and local convection that use empirically set parameters. Without addressing the large-scale feedback, the calibrated parameter values within a convection scheme are usually not optimal for a climate model. This study first designs a multiple-column atmospheric model that includes large-scale feedbacks for cumulus convection and then explores the role of large-scale feedbacks in cumulus convection parameter estimation using an ensemble filter. The performance of convection parameter estimation with or without the presence of large-scale feedback is examined. It is found that including large-scale feedbacks in cumulus convection parameter estimation can significantly improve the estimation quality. This is because large-scale feedbacks help transform local convection uncertainties into global climate sensitivities, and including these feedbacks enhances the statistical representation of the relationship between parameters and state variables. The results of this study provide insights for further understanding of climate drift induced from imperfect cumulus convection parameterization, which may help improve climate modeling.

Thermodynamics, maximum power, and the dynamics of preferential river flow structures at the continental scale

Abstract. The organization of drainage basins shows some reproducible phenomena, as exemplified by self-similar fractal river network structures and typical scaling laws, and these have been related to energetic optimization principles, such as minimization of stream power, minimum energy expenditure or maximum "access". Here we describe the organization and dynamics of drainage systems using thermodynamics, focusing on the generation, dissipation and transfer of free energy associated with river flow and sediment transport. We argue that the organization of drainage basins reflects the fundamental tendency of natural systems to deplete driving gradients as fast as possible through the maximization of free energy generation, thereby accelerating the dynamics of the system. This effectively results in the maximization of sediment export to deplete topographic gradients as fast as possible and potentially involves large-scale feedbacks to continental uplift. We illustrate this thermodynamic description with a set of three highly simplified models related to water and sediment flow and describe the mechanisms and feedbacks involved in the evolution and dynamics of the associated structures. We close by discussing how this thermodynamic perspective is consistent with previous approaches and the implications that such a thermodynamic description has for the understanding and prediction of sub-grid scale organization of drainage systems and preferential flow structures in general.

Global and regional trends of aerosol optical depth over land and ocean using SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010

Abstract. Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-yr mission. Our correlation analysis between climatic indices (such as ENSO) and AOD suggests strong relationships for Saharan dust export as well as biomass-burning activity in the tropics, associated with large-scale feedbacks. The results also indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On regional scales, distinct tendencies are found for different regions associated with natural and anthropogenic aerosol emission and transport. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.

Effects of Urban Surfaces and White Roofs on Global and Regional Climate

Abstract Land use, vegetation, albedo, and soil-type data are combined in a global model that accounts for roofs and roads at near their actual resolution to quantify the effects of urban surface and white roofs on climate. In 2005, ~0.128% of the earthrsquo;s surface contained urban land cover, half of which was vegetated. Urban land cover was modeled over 20 years to increase gross global warming (warming before cooling due to aerosols and albedo change are accounted for) by 0.06–0.11 K and population-weighted warming by 0.16–0.31 K, based on two simulations under different conditions. As such, the urban heat island (UHI) effect may contribute to 2%–4% of gross global warming, although the uncertainty range is likely larger than the model range presented, and more verification is needed. This may be the first estimate of the UHI effect derived from a global model while considering both UHI local heating and large-scale feedbacks. Previous data estimates of the global UHI, which considered the effect of urban areas but did not treat feedbacks or isolate temperature change due to urban surfaces from other causes of urban temperature change, imply a smaller UHI effect but of similar order. White roofs change surface albedo and affect energy demand. A worldwide conversion to white roofs, accounting for their albedo effect only, was calculated to cool population-weighted temperatures by ~0.02 K but to warm the earth overall by ~0.07 K. White roof local cooling may also affect energy use, thus emissions, a factor not accounted for here. As such, conclusions here regarding white roofs apply only to the assumptions made.

Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate

Abstract The reduction of systematic errors is a continuing challenge for model development. Feedbacks and compensating errors in climate models often make finding the source of a systematic error difficult. In this paper, it is shown how model development can benefit from the use of the same model across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Two particular systematic errors are examined: tropical circulation and precipitation distribution, and summer land surface temperature and moisture biases over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Each of these errors affects the model performance on time scales ranging from a few days to several decades. In both cases, the characteristics of the long-time-scale errors are found to develop during the first few days of simulation, before any large-scale feedbacks have taken place. The ability to compare the model diagnostics from the first few days of a forecast, initialized from a realistic atmospheric state, directly with observations has allowed physical deficiencies in the physical parameterizations to be identified that, when corrected, lead to improvements across the full range of time scales. This study highlights the benefits of a seamless prediction system across a wide range of time scales.

Impact Mechanisms of Shallow Cumulus Convection on Tropical Climate Dynamics*

Abstract Subtropical shallow cumulus convection is shown to play an important role in tropical climate dynamics, in which convective mixing between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free troposphere initiates a chain of large-scale feedbacks. It is found that the presence of shallow convection in the subtropics helps set the width and intensity of oceanic ITCZs, a mechanism here termed the shallow cumulus humidity throttle because of the control exerted on the moisture supply to the deep convection zones. These conclusions are reached after investigations based on a tropical climate model of intermediate complexity, with sufficient vertical degrees of freedom to capture (i) the effects of shallow convection on the boundary layer moisture budget and (ii) the dependency of deep convection on the free-tropospheric humidity. An explicit shallow cumulus mixing time scale in this simple parameterization is varied to assess sensitivity, with moist static energy budget analysis aiding to identify how the local effect of shallow convection is balanced globally. A reduction in the mixing efficiency of shallow convection leads to a more humid atmospheric mixed layer, and less surface evaporation, with a drier free troposphere outside of the convecting zones. Advection of drier free-tropospheric air from the subtropics by transients such as dry intrusions, as well as by mean inflow, causes a substantial narrowing of the convection zones by inhibition of deep convection at their margins. In the tropical mean, the reduction of convection by this narrowing more than compensates for the reduction in surface evaporation. Balance is established via a substantial decrease in tropospheric temperatures throughout the Tropics, associated with the reduction in convective heating. The temperature response—and associated radiative contribution to the net flux into the column—have broad spatial scales, while the reduction of surface evaporation is concentrated outside of the convecting zones. This results in differential net flux across the convecting zone, in a sense that acts to destabilize those areas that do convect. This results in stronger large-scale convergence and more intense convection within a narrower area. Finally, mixed layer ocean experiments show that in a coupled ocean–atmosphere system this indirect feedback mechanism can lead to SST differences up to +2 K between cases with different shallow cumulus mixing time, tending to counteract the direct radiative impact of low subtropical clouds on SST.

Effects of Changes in Climate on Landscape and Regional Processes, and Feedbacks to the Climate System

Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net effects of climate change on terrestrial feedbacks to the climate system. This uncertainty applies to magnitude, and even direction of some of the feedbacks.

Multidecadal Thermohaline Circulation Variability Driven by Atmospheric Surface Flux Forcing

Previous analyses of an extended integration of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model have revealed pronounced multidecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. The purpose of the current work is to assess whether those fluctuations can be viewed as a coupled air‐sea mode (in the sense of ENSO), or as an oceanic response to forcing from the atmosphere model, in which large-scale feedbacks from the ocean to the atmospheric circulation are not critical. A series of integrations using the ocean component of the coupled model are performed to address the above question. The ocean model is forced by suitably chosen time series of surface fluxes from either the coupled model or a companion integration of an atmosphere-only model run with a prescribed seasonal cycle of SSTs and sea-ice thickness. These experiments reveal that 1) the previously identified multidecadal THC variations can be largely viewed as an oceanic response to surface flux forcing from the atmosphere model, although air‐ sea coupling through the thermodynamics appears to modify the amplitude of the variability, and 2) variations in heat flux are the dominant term (relative to the freshwater and momentum fluxes) in driving the THC variability. Experiments driving the ocean model using either high- or low-pass-filtered heat fluxes, with a cutoff period of 20 yr, show that the multidecadal THC variability is driven by the low-frequency portion of the spectrum of atmospheric flux forcing. Analyses have also revealed that the multidecadal THC fluctuations are driven by a spatial pattern of surface heat flux variations that bears a strong resemblance to the North Atlantic oscillation. No conclusive evidence is found that the THC variability is part of a dynamically coupled mode of the atmosphere and ocean models.

Assessment of Solution Uncertainties in Single-Column Modeling Frameworks

Single-column models (SCMs) have been extensively promoted in recent years as an effective means to develop and test physical parameterizations targeted for more complex three-dimensional climate models. Although there are some clear advantages associated with single-column modeling, there are also some significant disadvantages, including the absence of large-scale feedbacks. Basic limitations of an SCM framework can make it difficult to interpret solutions, and at times contribute to rather striking failures to identify even first-order sensitivities as they would be observed in a global climate simulation. This manuscript will focus on one of the basic experimental approaches currently exploited by the single-column modeling community, with an emphasis on establishing the inherent uncertainties in the numerical solutions. The analysis will employ the standard physics package from the NCAR CCM3 and will illustrate the nature of solution uncertainties that arise from nonlinearities in parameterized physics. The results of this study suggest the need to make use of an ensemble methodology when conducting single-column modeling investigations.