Large-scale Evacuation Research Articles

Relocation and Social Support during Large-Scale Evacuations

Relocation and Social Support during Large-Scale Evacuations

Development of a Length-Based Cell-State Framework Toward the Re-Creation of Large-Scale Dense Congestion Patterns

This paper presents the results and novel findings of generating a simplified version of the prevailing traffic features that existed during a major evacuation. Leveraging the underlying framework provided by the widely used cell transmission model, the desire is to reconstruct the unique characteristics of large congestion patterns that propagate under dense traffic states, where limited attempts at scaling this base model have occurred. The length-based cell-state framework presented can reproduce large spatiotemporal congestion patterns that exist, specifically from large-scale evacuations. To further simplify, the framework considers traffic state heuristics which are calibrated through oblique cumulative count and occupancy curves. As a result of this preprocessing technique, an artifact was found from the use of the cumulative curves under the lens of Newell’s two-phase traffic flow theory where three unique, separate queued regimes were identified within the fundamental diagrams. The methodology re-created a unique large-scale congestion pattern that existed during a past regional evacuation event, Hurricane Irma, the subject of this paper. To test this methodology, a large-scale congested period was analyzed, both with probe vehicle trajectory data and stationary radar detector data. Results demonstrate that traffic re-creation into state-based contours was able to be verified near a 90% level of confidence even at large spatiotemporal extents.

Emergency evacuation based on long range communication technology

The complexity and uncertainty of a fire in a large public building with complex structure leads to risks during emergency evacuation. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct intelligent emergency evacuation according to the situational development of the accident environment, the crowding degree of evacuation routes, as well as the reliability and flexibility of data transmission in large complex building structures. In this study, we develop an Intelligent Emergency Evacuation System (IEES) based on the Long Range (LoRa) communication technology and the Evacuation Decision Optimization Model (EDOM). The IEES comprises three parts, i.e., multi-sensor Fire Monitoring System (FMS), Central Control System (CCS), and Wireless Evacuation Indication System (WEIS). The LoRa communication technology is used for data transmission among the three parts of the IEES to assist large scale evacuation. The EDOM is developed to support the CCS based on the improved adaptive ant colony algorithm. To facilitate the evacuation decision optimization, the initial node database in the evacuation spatial network is established intelligently on the Building Information Modeling (BIM) platform. An on-site application in a subway station with three underground floors is conducted. The results demonstrate that the IEES can guide people in evacuating from hazardous locations according to the state of the fire. Moreover, the phenomena of crowd retention and congestion at a few certain evacuation exits are considerably reduced to achieve global optimization of the evacuation path and accomplish the objective of intelligent emergency evacuation. Furthermore, WEIS can maintain normal operation and have good visibility in the fire environment of heat radiation and thick smoke. The IEES can realize dual wireless indication of vision and sound perception, and its response time is slightly affected by the building structure and transmission distance. The electromagnetic signal of electrical equipment and the operational state of vehicles in and out of the subway station causes the response time to a relatively larger lag. The response time of the IEES is delayed up to 14 ms. Nonetheless, it fulfills the requirements of response time of evacuation indication signs stated in the Technical Standard for Fire Emergency Lighting and Evacuate Indicating System.

An Unmanned System-Guided Crowd Evacuation Method in Complex and Large-Scale Evacuation Environments

An Unmanned System-Guided Crowd Evacuation Method in Complex and Large-Scale Evacuation Environments

Enhancing Healthcare Access in Conflict Zones: Identifying Challenges and Proposing Solutions

There are still many unanswered questions about the safety of affected communities' health in conflict zones, including access to healthcare. The main obstacle is the profound disruption that conflict causes to the healthcare system, which leads to a shortage of medical supplies, the destruction of buildings, and a large-scale evacuation of medical personnel. Security hazards also exacerbate this critical situation by impeding the safe delivery of help and the impacted communities' access to healthcare services. This condition however present chances for creativity and advancement. Technological developments, in particular telemedicine, provide a lifeline by bridging the gap between patients and healthcare practitioners by enabling remote consultations and the dissemination of medical information to areas afflicted by violence. A concerted effort involving technological innovation, stakeholder collaboration, community empowerment, and advocacy efforts holds promise in improving the dire situation and, in the end, guaranteeing vulnerable populations in these areas equitable access to healthcare, even though there are still challenges associated with providing healthcare in conflict areas. Finally, the provision of healthcare in war areas continues to be a complex problem, but proactive approaches that embrace technology innovation, teamwork, community empowerment, and advocacy work may be able to lessen these difficulties. Together, these concerns can be addressed to create a more equitable healthcare environment that will support vulnerable people during times of conflict. In order to improve healthcare accessibility in these unstable circumstances. This is paper aims to analyze the numerous obstacles and investigate viable solutions and avenue for advancement.

Data-driven evacuation and rescue traffic optimization with rescue contraflow control

In response to local sudden disasters, e.g., high-rise office or residential building fire disasters, road occupation can cause conflicts, and traffic directions may be opposite between evacuation vehicles and rescue vehicles; moreover, lane contraflow can be adopted to meet these surge traffic demands. However, lane contraflow that provides more roads for rescue vehicles reduces the traffic supply in the evacuation direction. It is unclear how to control the number of contraflow roads used by rescue vehicles to coordinate evacuation and rescue traffic operations. Here, we adjust the critical rescue traffic volume of reversing the normal road traffic direction to control rescue contraflow. Additionally, we propose a multiobjective mixed integer linear programming formulation for evacuation and rescue traffic optimization. Additionally, considering that the upper limit of the critical rescue traffic volume is unknown and that the proposed formulation includes multiple objectives and multi-priority vehicle classes, a three-stage solving algorithm is developed. Next, a large-scale evacuation and rescue traffic optimization result dataset is obtained for the Nguyen–Dupuis road network, and the impact of different rescue contraflow control plans on evacuation and rescue traffic is studied based on data-driven statistical analysis. The results show that by adjusting the optimal rescue traffic route, the critical rescue traffic volume for reversing the normal road traffic direction can reduce the interference of rescue traffic to evacuation traffic operation performance without reducing rescue traffic operation performance, and can be used to coordinate evacuation and rescue traffic operation under rescue contraflow.

A study on the establishment of database for local government disaster response and decision support system in the nuclear accidents

ABSTRACT Radiological disasters have been recognized as a prominent societal catastrophe worldwide since the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. In order to cope with such disasters, efforts have been made to improve disaster response plans and systems based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. Particularly, as demonstrated by the Fukushima case, radiological disasters require the assumption of large-scale evacuation of residents. Thus, it is essential for prompt and accurate decision-making to take place at the local government’s Emergency Management Center (EMC), enabling smooth execution of the missions assigned to personnel at the field. This is crucial for protecting the lives of residents and ensuring their safety. However, the existing systems for effective response to radiological disasters are relatively inadequate compared to other types of disasters. To overcome these limitations, this study aims to develop Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that are optimized for radiological disaster response by standardizing the Field Measure Motion Manual at nuclear safety for local governments. Based on these SOPs, The Resident Protection Measures Support System (RPMS) will be proposed, which enables the timely dissemination of specific missions and information to personnel, while providing real-time information on the situation at the field to the EMC, supporting decision-making and facilitating effective situation management.

Very few scientific publications and newspaper articles focus on catastrophic events and their effects on urban wildlife

The COVID-19 pandemic upended daily life and disrupted human activity in urban centers all over the world. Stay-at-home orders emptied urban spaces, removing or decreasing stressors on urban wildlife associated with human presence. Anecdotal observations of unusual urban wildlife behavior spread virally across social media, but some of these reports were proven false or fabricated. Here we examined both scientific publications and local newspapers to understand how extensively urban catastrophes are covered with respect to their effects on wildlife. We read all article titles from January 1980–June 2023 in 100 high impact journals in biology to determine if prior research exists that could inform our understanding of this phenomenon. Additionally, we used a keyword search to find scientific journal articles about wildlife responses during events in which large-scale evacuations of urban environments occurred. We found 37 scientific articles on this topic, with 13 of those published in the highest impact biology journals. The majority of publications identified (70%) were about wildlife responses to the COVID-19 public health response. Finally, we searched local newspapers in areas where hurricanes struck urban centers. We found 25 newspaper articles reporting on wildlife in relation to urban natural disasters. These were typically anecdotes, but nearly always consulted a credible, expert source. Ultimately, more research focused on urban areas before and after catastrophic or sudden changes will allow biologists to develop a baseline expectation for urban wildlife behavior in the absence of humans.

A Chinese–French Study on Nuclear Energy and the Environment

This article focuses on the environmental impact of nuclear energy and addresses the following major environmental issues associated with nuclear power generation: ① controlling the radioactive discharge from nuclear installations under normal operation and evaluating their non-radioactive environmental impact (water withdrawals and non-radioactive discharges); ② long-term management of spent fuel and radioactive waste (radwaste), notably that disposed off in geological repositories; ③ prevention and mitigation of severe nuclear accidents and their radioactive releases and; ④ improving nuclear safety to restrict its environmental impact and to contribute toward the public acceptance of nuclear energy. Nuclear energy, with its very low emissions of green-house gases, has a unique capacity to generate massive and on-demand dispatchable amounts of electricity. The annual effective radiation dose delivered to the public surrounding nuclear power plants under normal operation is negligible. Considerable efforts have been made to define sustainable management of high-level long-lived radwaste that is disposed in geological formations. The return of experience from severe nuclear accidents in the past has informed and propelled major improvements in several aspects of nuclear energy production—including reactor design and operational management as well as in the development of accident-management guidelines—and has proved to be highly valuable. The environmental risks in the event of a severe accident have been substantially reduced and protocols have been established to minimize the release of radioactive materials and avoid the large-scale evacuation of people in the event of a severe nuclear accident. Efforts must be continued to improve reactor safety and enhance the transparency of the industry and the authorities that support and control nuclear power to further reduce the environmental impact.

Emergency shelter allocation planning technology for large-scale evacuation based on quantum genetic algorithm.

Shelter allocation is one of the most important measures in urban disaster prevention and mitigation planning. Meanwhile, it is essentially a comprehensive planning problem combining resource allocation and traffic routing. A reasonable allocation scheme can avoid congestion, improve evacuation efficiency, and reduce the casualty rate. Owing to the large region and large evacuation population demand, quickly solving the complex allocation problem is somewhat challenging, and thus, the optimal results are difficult to obtain with the increase of evacuation scale by traditional allocation methods. This article aims to establish a shelter allocation model for large-scale evacuation, which employs an improved quantum genetic algorithm (IQGA) based on spreading operation and considering the total evacuation distance, the capacity constraint of evacuation sites, and the dispersion of allocation results, and compare allocation schemes of the spreading model with those of models that consider different constraints. Results show that the allocation model with the spreading operation has better allocation results than that without the spreading operation. For the allocation model with spreading operation, the spreading model with different spreading speeds is more reasonable than that with the same spreading speed, and the allocation results are closer to the ideal results with the increase of constraints. In addition, according to the allocation results, the evacuation route map and the evacuation heat map are drawn to intuitively understand the distribution scheme of each shelter.

Burnover events identified during the 2018 Camp Fire

Background The Camp Fire burned through communities in Butte County, California, on 8 November 2018. The fire destroyed over 18 000 structures and caused 85 fatalities, mostly within the first 12 h of the incident.Aims A post-fire case study was conducted to learn from the devastating incident.Methods The case study was supported by detailed first-hand accounts from 157 first responders, photos and videos, first responder radio logs, and other field data. Subsequent analysis and data integration yielded a timeline reconstruction of the first 24 h of the entire event, as well as additional observations of the fire behaviour.Key results A total of 23 life-threatening entrapment and burnover events were identified, in which fire trapped or overtook people and compromised escape routes.Conclusions Seventeen burnovers directly impacted evacuating civilians, 12 of which occurred on major evacuation roadways. These events affected the safety of hundreds of evacuating civilians and dozens of first responders.Implications Fast-moving fires may require last-minute large-scale evacuations, such as the Camp Fire. The risk of similar types of events is high, particularly in intermix communities where the presence of wildland vegetation along evacuation routes, likely amplified by local topography and wind, can result in significant entrapments or burnovers.

Daniel W. McManigal. A Baptism of Judgment in the Fire of the Holy Spirit: John’s Eschatological Proclamation in Matthew 3

Daniel W. McManigal. <i>A Baptism of Judgment in the Fire of the Holy Spirit: John’s Eschatological Proclamation in Matthew 3</i>

A novel method for the risk assessment of human evacuation from cruise ships in maritime transportation

In maritime transport, evacuation, escape and rescue play a crucial role in protecting people's lives when a passenger ship is involved in a serious accident. The study aims to develop a new method to identify hazards, quantify and rank the associated risks in the process of Human Evacuation from Passenger Ships (HEPS). Firstly, based on extensive literature review and marine accident investigation reports, the risk factors affecting passenger ship evacuation were analysed and identified, and an analysis framework based on Human, Ship, Environment and Organization (HSEO) for HEPS was proposed. Secondly, a risk assessment model was proposed to quantify and rank risk factors in the process of HEPS. Finally, a large-scale evacuation drill of a cruise ship was taken as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed evaluation model, and accuracy of the results. The results reveal that (1) evacuation decision, operation of Life-Saving Appliances (LSAs) are the main risks affecting the safety of HEPS; (2) the behaviours of passengers have a relatively lower risk priority; and (3) future HEPS research should focus on the development of a multi-attribute decision system to address the issue on when to evacuate and when to abandon a ship.

Progress of disaster mitigation against tropical cyclones and storm surges: a comparative study of Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Japan

ABSTRACT This study reviews the progress of disaster mitigation measures against tropical cyclones (TCs) in three Asian countries with different historical, social, and economic backgrounds: Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Japan. In Bangladesh, an average of 6,600 people was killed by a single TC in the 1960s, but this number had decreased to 30 in the 2010s; this reduction was due to a clear improvement in soft measures, such as weather forecasting, warning systems, and mass evacuation coordinated by volunteers. In Vietnam, several strong TCs have recently made landfall, leading to improvements in national disaster management. Although Vietnam's current disaster management budget is smaller than those of the two other countries, large-scale evacuation by local authorities is believed to have minimized casualties. In Japan, shortly after Typhoon Vera in 1959, a comprehensive law on disaster prevention was enacted, and coastal dikes were constructed nationwide, resulting in a considerable reduction in fatalities due to TCs. However, the disaster prevention facilities built in this period are now deteriorating, while Japan’s budget for disaster management is projected to be decreasing. The three countries have advanced their disaster preparedness in response to past TCs and storm surges, but new challenges have also arisen.

A Spatiotemporal Perspective on the 31 May 2013 Tornado Evacuation in the Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area

Abstract On 31 May 2013, an extremely large and violent tornado hit near the town of El Reno, Oklahoma, a small town in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. The size and intensity of this tornado, coupled with the fact that it was heading toward Oklahoma City, prompted local broadcasters to warn residents to evacuate their homes and head south if they could not shelter belowground. This warning led to a large-scale evacuation of the metropolitan area and massive traffic jams on the interstates and major highways that could have caused casualties in the hundreds if the tornado had not dissipated before reaching Oklahoma City. The focus of this study was to understand the magnitude of the 31 May 2013 evacuation through the evaluation of traffic volume data and to determine how frequently such evacuations occur in Oklahoma City and other metropolitan areas. We found that of the six metropolitan areas tested, only Oklahoma City had mass anomalous traffic reversal (ATR) days (days with a mass evacuation signal) with 31 May 2013 having the largest mass ATR day by far. Despite the rarity of mass ATR days, the potential consequences of a large, violent tornado hitting gridlocked traffic is significant, and we recommend that communicators encourage more local sheltering options. Significance Statement On the evening of 31 May 2013, a large-scale evacuation of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area occurred as a result of a very large and dangerous tornado that had formed near the town of El Reno and was moving east toward Oklahoma City. If the tornado had not dissipated before it reached the city it could have caused hundreds of casualties as it passed over gridlocked roads. We sought to understand the frequency of such mass evacuations and found that no other event in six metropolitan areas studied during 2011–18 could compare. While such evacuations fortunately appear rare, more work should be done to understand why they happen when they do and to connect individuals with better local sheltering options.

Military Industrialization of Uzbekistan in 1941—1945

The influence of the Great Patriotic War on the restructuring of the industry of Uzbekistan is considered. The materials of the National Archives of Uzbekistan are used, some of which have not been published before. It is reported that in the pre-war years, the economy of Uzbekistan was dominated by agriculture and the war became a new period of industrialization of the republic. It is stated that during the war years, during the mass evacuation, Uzbekistan received about 190 industrial enterprises from the western regions of the USSR. It is stated that such a large-scale evacuation of industry, on the one hand, created difficulties associated with the placement of equipment and people, and on the other hand, formed a disproportionately expanded industrial potential of Uzbekistan. Attention is focused on the fact that the economy withstood the main difficulties of restructuring industry on a war footing. It is proved that the new industrial centers of the country began to be of great importance for the military economy of the USSR. It is emphasized that the people of Uzbekistan heroically worked on the construction of new plants and factories, as well as on the restoration of evacuated enterprises, which, among other things, made it possible to solve the issue of a stable supply of the army with weapons, and the industry with raw materials and minerals.

Location problems of vertical evacuation structures for dam-failure floods: Considering shelter-in-place and horizontal evacuation

The increasing threat of unpredictable and no-notice disasters due to climate change, such as tsunamis, wildfires, and dam-failure floods, should call for more attention to disaster management. These disasters leave limited time for the affected population to respond. Hence, Shelter-In-Place (SIP) strategies have been suggested to complement large-scale evacuation, aiming to secure individuals within local communities immediately. In the problem context of dam-failure floods, the priority of SIP is to elevate the individuals above the flooded ground, and Vertical Evacuation Structures/Shelters (VESs) are designed to contain these SIP evacuees. However, a portion of the flood-affected population cannot be accommodated because of the limited capacities of VESs. Accordingly, these evacuees must evacuate outside the flooded area, known as Horizontal Evacuation (HE). This study formulates the VES location problem considering VE and HE: the established VESs will cover as many evacuees as possible and reduce the system evacuation time for HE. The VES locations and the HE evacuee assignment are interdependent, as reflected by factoring individual evacuation time. Therefore, this study develops a bi-level programming model to address the interdependence. Furthermore, a heuristic algorithm is proposed to analyze the evacuation time for evacuees at each node. The bi-level model is verified using the network of Tucheng District, New Taipei City, Taiwan, impacted by dam-failure floods. Results show that the total evacuation time can be reduced significantly after integrating HE into VES planning.

Traffic management for large-scale evacuation with public transportation and calculation of appropriate operating ratio

In 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) changed the recommended maximum range of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) to 30 km, and the Kori Nuclear Power Plant in Republic of Korea has also expanded the EPZ to 30 km, following the recommendation. As a result, metropolitan cities with a high population density are contained within the EPZ, and evacuating millions of people should be considered if the 30 km range of evacuation is to take place. This study proposes an evacuation plan using buses (public transportation) to transport people outside of the EPZ, quickly and efficiently. To verify the appropriate mode share ratio of buses that can guarantee the right of vulnerable road users and reduce traffic congestion, a model was built simulating the Kori Nuclear Power Plant in Ulsan Metropolitan City. The scenarios were established by changing the mode share ratio of buses and passenger cars by 10%. Considering a large-scale network analysis at the city level, a cell transmission model was applied to calculate the evacuation time in each scenario. The result shows that the optimal mode share ratio of buses is 40%, with a total evacuation time of 132 min, considering feasible bus fleets in Ulsan Metropolitan City.

Mitigation of long-term station blackout accident of advanced boiling water reactors

Taiwan Power Company proposed ultimate response guidelines (URGs) to mitigate the so-called ‘Fukushima type accident’ of nuclear power plants. As stipulated in URGs, operators will depressurize the reactor coolant system if necessary to bring in low-pressure water. Containment venting is then used to dissipate the heat generated from the decay. These collective actions are called DIVing (depressurizing, injecting and venting) in URGs. The actions are designed to avoid large-scale evacuation of the public around the damaged plant during an accident. In this study, the effectiveness of DIVing in preventing radioactive emission to the environment is evaluated using RELAP5 codes. The plant analyzed is Lungmen Nuclear Power Station, which has two 1350-MWe advanced boiling water reactors (ABWR) designed by General Electric. In the Standard Operating Procedure of DIVing in URGs, controlled depressurization is executed to bring the pressure to the lowest operating pressure of Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) system. The core water level is kept high while RCIC is in operation.. Emergency depressurization is carried out when RCIC fails. The executing time of DIVing as specified in URGs is too conservative. The study identifies the acceptable initial states for operators to carry out DIVing actions. The success criterion is to keep the peak cladding temperature below 1088 K (1500°F) during the transient, which is the temperature of cladding breach and the initiation of gap release of radionuclide from fuel rod.In this study, depressurization transients in the station blackout accident of ABWR are simulated using RELAP5/3D. The results show that the peak cladding temperature obtained during a depressurization transient depends on the time of depressurization, initial pressure, initial water level and injection rate of low-pressure water. When the water level and injection rate are fixed, a region of successful depressurization on the depressurization time vs pressure plot is delineated based on the results of RELAP5 simulations. Regions of successfully depressurization for typical combinations of injection rate and water level are identified, and acceptable region’s boundary is linear.A computation aid, Guidance for Emergency Depressurization (GfED), was developed based on the simulation results of the RELAP5/3D code to assist operators in determining whether the emergency depressurization under given conditions can be performed successfully. GfED uses low-pressure injection flow rate, water level and initial pressure upon emergency depressurization as input parameters to calculate the latest time that is acceptable for emergency depressurization. The technique of linear interpolation is adopted. By comparing the result and value input by the operators, GfED can predict whether it is safe to depressurize.GfED also guides operators to determine the initial condition of a successful depressurization. Three of the four input parameters are fixed in the guidance, and the limiting value of the fourth parameter of a successful depressurization is calculated. These values are informative for operators to manoeuvre the system while the reactor core isolation cooling system is still running.

Study on Evacuation Behavior of Urban Underground Complex in Fire Emergency Based on System Dynamics

During a fire evacuation, long lateral evacuation distances, large crowds waiting for evacuation at the same level, and easily panicked populations are common. This research aimed to look into the large-scale evacuation behavior of urban underground complexes with limited evacuation and egress during a fire. A simplified model for large-scale group evacuation of urban subsurface complexes was constructed using system dynamics theory. The Vensim software was used for quantitative simulation. The model could represent the typical phenomenon of group evacuation behaviors, such as quick or slow, under seven operating situations with total initial numbers of 350, 400, 450, 500, 1000, 2000, and 4000. The results of an analysis of critical affecting factors show “total initial number” and “panic state” during a large-scale group evacuation: a large beginning population will result in a rapid reduction in system evacuation capability, delaying the completion of the evacuation process significantly; meanwhile, if the level of panic is deficient, the system’s evacuation efficiency will remain low for an extended period, making it difficult to evacuate trapped persons promptly. According to the findings, the developed system dynamics model, which combines the advantages of a continuous model with the advantages of a discrete model, is very accurate. At the same time, we should emphasize the importance of the evacuation guide and reinforce the fire education and behavior drills for the building’s workers. This research presents a simplified model for the evacuation of large groups of people from metropolitan underground complexes. Furthermore, the findings may give theoretical support for the development of rules and safety management practices.