Large Precipitation Events Research Articles

Seasonal dynamics of water-use strategies and response to precipitation in different habitats of Nitraria L.

Nitraria L. is a dominant shrub in arid areas and its survival is hampered by low and unpredictable precipitation and uncertain future water conditions. However, little is known about the shrub’s water requirements or its response to precipitation. We determined the water utilization strategies of Nitraria L. species in habitats with different soil textures using the isotopic composition of xylem water and those of potential water sources (groundwater and vadose zone soil water). We used the MixSIAR model to quantify the relative contribution of potential water sources to shrub water in different soil textures. Our results showed that (1) The dynamic characteristics of water use of Nitraria L. species differed in different soil textures. In gravel soils, water in all soil layers was recharged by precipitation, and the shrub water source was controlled by precipitation with significant seasonal changes. In sandy and clay soils, shallow soil water was recharged by precipitation infiltration, but deep soil water was recharged by capillary rise. Nonetheless, the shrub water sources exhibited considerable seasonal fluctuations. During wet seasons, the shrub’s primary water sources were in shallow and mid-soil depths. However, during the dry season, the shrubs relied on groundwater, with more than half of their water originating in deep soil layers. (2) Nitraria L. species generally responded significantly to precipitation events, and those that survived in three soil textures were able to rapidly switch water sources to varying degrees. In particular, in sandy and gravelly soils, the proportion of deep soil water (24.3 %) and groundwater (16.2 %) used by Nitraria L. plants decreased significantly after a large precipitation event (e.g., 18.8 and 11.9 mm), shifting to a predominantly transient use of shallow soil water (48.5 %). Nitraria L. could shift water-absorbing soil layers according to the availability of potential water sources in different soil textures. This flexibility allows them to access the most readily available water more rapidly. Such optimal ecological adaptation can ensure that the plants will have an advantage in future predicted water shortage conditions.

Influence of Neltuma flexuosa and rainfall event on the germination of Leptochloa crinita and Pappophorum caespitosum in two different locations along a stress gradient in the central Monte desert

AbstractIn drylands, grass germination occurs after a large rainfall event. However, trees influence the water requirements for germination either by decreasing the rate of evaporation from soil surface or by interception rainfall with their canopy. The aim of this work was to evaluate the role of Neltuma flexuosa tree on the germination of Leptochloa crinita and Pappophorum caespitosum grasses in response to precipitation events of different sizes. The experiment was conducted in two locations within the Monte desert, Argentina: a semi‐arid location with an average annual precipitation of 345 mm and an arid location with an average annual precipitation of 156 mm. Six microsites were established under N. flexuosa canopies and six microsites in open areas at both locations. Within each microsite, 35 seeds of each grass species were exposed to precipitation events of varying sizes. This procedure was repeated 14 times across two growing seasons. Germinated seeds were counted in the laboratory. Generalized linear mixed models were then applied to evaluate the effects of accumulated precipitation and the microsite on the grass germination in both locations. Results showed that N. flexuosa did not influence the germination of either grass species in the arid location. However, in the semi‐arid location, N. flexuosa facilitated the germination of P. caespitosum only. Large precipitation events would act as an environmental signal for these perennial grasses, allowing them to germinate in favorable years regardless of the microsite or the location.

Effects of drought and moisture stress on the growth and ecophysiological traits of Schima superba seedlings.

Changes in rainfall patterns are important environmental factors affecting plant growth, especially when larger precipitation events and prolonged drought periods occur in subtropical regions. There are many studies on how drought reduces plant biomass through drought-sensitive functional traits, but how excess water affects plant growth and ecophysiology is still poorly understood. Therefore, a greenhouse experiment was conducted on Schima superba (Theaceae), a dominant tree species in subtropical forests and commonly used in forestry, in a closed chamber under control (25% soil water content (SWC) as in local forests), drought stress (D, 15% SWC) and moisture stress (W, 35% SWC). Plant growth and ecophysiological traits related to morphology, leaf gas exchange, water potential and structural traits were measured. Compared to control, S. suberba under dry conditions significantly decreased its aboveground biomass, photosynthetic rate (A), leaf water potential and nitrogen use efficiency, but increased intrinsic water use efficiency, root to shoot ratio and specific root length. S. superba under wet conditions also significantly decreased its total biomass, aboveground biomass and specific root length, while W had no effect on A and leaf water potential. Our results indicate that S. superba shows a decrease in carbon gain under drought stress, but less response under wet conditions. This emphasizes the need to consider the strength and frequency of rainfall pattern changes in future studies because rainfall may either alleviate or intensify the effects of drought stress depending on the moisture level, thus suitable water conditions is important for better management of this tree species in subtropical China.

Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability

The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD.

Hypersalinity in Coastal Wetlands and Potential Restoration Solutions, Lake Austin and East Matagorda Bay, Texas, USA

When droughts occur, freshwater inputs to coastal wetlands can become scarce and hypersalinity can become a problem. In 2023, a severe drought negatively affected a Texas watershed known as Lake Austin that fed a large expanse of wetlands on East Matagorda Bay. To study the hypersalinity problem in these wetlands, we identified freshwater inflows and mapped vegetation changes over time. We found that from 1943 to 2023, the upper portion of the Lake Austin watershed lost freshwater wetlands to agricultural conversion, and ranged from fresh to brackish, with salinity rapidly rising to a maximum of 31 mS during the summer drought of 2023. The lower portion of the watershed gained saltwater wetlands due to sea level rise, and marshes became hypersaline (64–96 mS) during the 2023 drought, endangering its biota. But after large precipitation events, the entire Lake Austin basin rapidly freshened but then returned to its normal salinities within a week as the tides re-delivered saltwater into its basin. Given current climatic trends, we expect that freshwater inflow will continue to slightly increase for the Lake Austin watershed but also that there will be more extreme periods of episodic drought that negatively affect its wetlands. Accordingly, we assessed several potential restoration actions that would improve freshwater flow and delivery to the Lake Austin coastal wetlands.

Can we rely on drought‐ending “miracles” in the Colorado River Basin?

AbstractUnexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015. Although these events are often termed as “drought‐busting” or “miracle events” by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard‐to‐predict, ultra‐high precipitation events occurring during the late‐snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry‐to‐wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. In view of the potentially wetter but less‐snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these “miracle events” is emphasized.

Seasonal water sources and response to precipitation events of Calligonum mongolicum at the oasis margin in the Hexi River Corridor

AbstractCalligonum mongolicum is often planted as a windbreak and for sand stabilization on mobile and semi‐mobile sand dunes in extremely arid regions. However, water availability remains a key limiting factor for its survival and population expansion, and water use strategies and responses to precipitation events of this species are unknown. Here, we determined water use strategy of C. mongolicum under extreme arid conditions by measuring the oxygen stable isotopes (δD and δ18O) in xylem water and in potential water sources (precipitation, soil water, and groundwater). We used the IsoSource model to determine the relative contributions of different water sources to water utilization by C. mongolicum. Our results showed that: (1) water sources used by C. mongolicum exhibited seasonal variability, with shallow soil water accounting for 42% of utilization during early spring (April), and deep soil water and groundwater being predominantly used during the summer and autumn and accounting for 61%–84% of utilization, (2) C. mongolicum did not respond to small precipitation events, but responded significantly to large precipitation events. C. mongolicum maintained the utilization of soil water in all layers at 74%–81% of deep soil water and groundwater before a 5.8 mm precipitation event. A precipitation event of 18.8 mm increased the contribution of surface water from 4% before to 17% after precipitation, indicating that C. mongolicum has a strong capacity for self‐regulation and adaptation; namely, C. mongolicum is capable of developing an optimal phenotype through self‐regulation, thereby maximizing water acquisition.

Simulation of Long-Term Water Erosion in Rainfed Croplands of Eastern Washington

Highlights Water erosion in the inland Pacific Northwest was modeled with WEPP for the past (1940–1982) and present (1983–2020). Water erosion decreased from past to present in the study watersheds. Major factors are increased adoption of conservation practices and decrease in large precipitation events. Abstract. Water erosion is an ongoing problem in eastern Washington due to its hilly terrain, highly erodible silt loam soils, rain on thawing soil, and the prevalence of conventional tillage. The region is characterized by a Mediterranean-type climate with warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. Three distinct precipitation zones, with annual totals low (<380 mm), intermediate (380–460 mm), and high (>460 mm), dictate the area’s crop rotations. A unique 43-year (1940–1982) dataset of winter erosion measured on multiple agricultural fields in Whitman County, eastern Washington, by Verle Kaiser, a USDA Soil Conservation Service agronomist, showed annual erosion rates averaging 53.8 Mg ha-1, far exceeding the current Natural Resources Conservation Service tolerable limit of 11 Mg ha-1 yr–1 for the soils in the area. Kaiser’s field data allowed us to compare the historical field-measured erosion rates with those simulated by the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model. Anthropogenic factors, such as tillage and crop rotation, change with time. Conservation tillage, including reduced- and no-till, has been increasingly adopted in eastern Washington since the mid-1980s. The specific objectives of this study were to (1) apply the WEPP model to simulate soil erosion in eastern Washington and evaluate the interactive effects of climate and management, in addition to topography and soil, on water erosion in the study area, and (2) compare the simulation results with Kaiser’s historical field dataset and elucidate the long-term soil erosion trend. The WEPPcloud interface was used to delineate a watershed within each precipitation zone of the study area. Climate inputs were divided into two periods: the past (1939–1982) and the present (1983–2020). Erosion has noticeably decreased from the past to the present, with WEPP simulated annual erosion averaging 13.5, 34.5, and 52.6 Mg ha-1 for the past, and 9.5, 14.1, and 15.5 Mg ha-1 for the present, in the selected watersheds in the low-, intermediate-, and high-precipitation zones, respectively. The decreasing trend was primarily due to the increased adoption of conservation tillage and crop rotation, as well as a decrease in the number of high-intensity precipitation events in the present climate. Keywords: Inland Pacific Northwest, Soil erosion by water, Temporal trend, WEPP.

Modeling the Potential Influence of Subsurface Tile Drainage Systems on Downstream Flooding in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed

Highlights Tile flow was simulated to study the impacts of tile drainage on watershed hydrology and downstream flood days. Three tile drainage scenarios with varied extents of drained land were compared with a baseline scenario. The depth of tile flow contributing to streamflow was found to increase as the area of drained land increased. Results suggest that drainage systems decrease flood days when compared to the baseline scenario. Abstract. Subsurface tile drainage systems are common in agricultural regions of the Midwestern United States. Drainage systems remove excess water from the surface and soil profile of agricultural fields, allowing crop production in previously unsuitable locations. However, these systems impact watershed hydrology and could influence flooding events. Therefore, this study aimed to determine whether tile drainage systems influence downstream flood days in a Midwestern agricultural watershed, specifically the Skunk Creek watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the hydrologic processes of the Skunk Creek Watershed for an 18-year period (2004–2021). The model was calibrated and validated using observed daily streamflow data with the SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP) software and through the manual modification of missed precipitation data. Three tile drainage scenarios—ranging from 15% to 75% tile-drained agricultural land—were individually incorporated into the model. Results indicated that with increased tile drainage, surface runoff, groundwater flow, deep aquifer recharge, and percolation decreased, whereas lateral soil flow, tile flow, evapotranspiration, and water yield increased. A comparison of tile drainage scenarios suggests that increasing the area of tile-drained agricultural land decreases total flood days. However, the impact of tile drainage systems on downstream peak flood flows varied by event, with large precipitation events initiating flood days across all scenarios. While tile flow decreased flood days on a daily time step, flash floods might have occurred on a sub-daily time step but were not captured in this study. Future studies can replicate the approach with a sub-daily time step for simulating hourly flood events with various tile drainage scenarios. Keywords: Midwestern United States, Streamflow, SWAT, Tile drainage, Watershed hydrology.

Runoff response to the uncertainty from key water-budget variables in a seasonally snow-covered mountain basin

Study regionThe American River Basin, a seasonally snow-covered mountain basin in the northern Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Study focusPrecipitation phase (rain, snow, and mixed rain-snow) partitioning in snowy basins is important for runoff forecasting. This study focuses on how predicted runoff response is affected by uncertainty in rain-snow-transition elevation and other water-budget variables. Using a distributed hydrologic model, we examined predicted runoff differences across 33 extreme-precipitation events and dry seasons during 1982–2020, through a set of modeling experiments with different sources of transition elevation and values of water-budget variables. New hydrological insights for the regionDifferent transition elevations can result in noticeable differences in predictions of peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and dry-season runoff. Transition elevation modulates runoff response in a nonlinear way, with runoff uncertainty increasing during larger precipitation events. In terms of the relative impacts of water-budget variables on runoff response, precipitation has the greatest impact, followed by antecedent soil moisture, transition elevation, and antecedent SWE. A 2 °C warming would push the rain-snow-transition elevation ∼300-m higher, increasing the number and severity of extreme events. Compared to the historical period, the same transition-elevation uncertainty in climate warming conditions nearly triples its impacts on runoff uncertainty, posing additional challenges to flood control. This study provides implications for addressing uncertainty in flood-control and water-supply decisions confronted with hydrologic extremes and climate warming.

The Effects of Precipitation Event Characteristics and Afforestation on the Greening in Arid Grasslands, China

Global greening and its relationship with climate change remain the hot topics in recent years, and are of critical importance for understanding the interactions between the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle and the climate system. China, especially north China, has contributed a lot to global greening during the past few decades. As a water-limited ecosystem, human activities, not precipitation amount, were thought as the main contributor to the greening of north China. Considering the importance of precipitation event characteristics (PEC) in the altered precipitation regimes, we integrated long-term normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological datasets to reveal the role of precipitation regimes, especially PECs, on vegetation growth across temperate grasslands in north China. Accompanied with a significantly decreased growing season precipitation (GSP), NDVI increased significantly in the largest area of the temperate grasslands during 1982–2015, i.e., greening. We found that 28.44% of the area was explained by PECs, including more heavy or extreme precipitation events, alleviated extreme drought, and fewer light events, while only 0.92% of the area was associated with GSP. NDVI did not always increase over the 30 years and there was a decrease during 1996–2005. Taking afforestation projects in desertified lands into account, we found that precipitation, mainly PECs, explained more the increase and decline of NDVI during 1982–1995 and 1996–2005, respectively, while an equivalent explanatory power of precipitation and afforestation projects to the increase in NDVI after 2005. Our study indicates a possible higher productivity under future precipitation regime scenario (e.g., fewer but larger precipitation events) or intensive afforestation activity, implying more carbon sequestration or livestock production of temperate steppe in the future.

Enabling a process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model to simulate soil erosion and nutrient losses

Abstract. Water-induced erosion and associated particulate carbon (PC), particulate nitrogen (PN) and particulate phosphorus (PP) nutrient losses are vital parts of biogeochemical cycling. Identifying their intensity and distribution characteristics is of great significance for the control of soil and water loss and nitrogen/phosphorus nonpoint source pollution. This study incorporated modules of physical soil erosion and associated PC, PN and PP losses into a process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model (Catchment Nutrients Management Model coupled with DeNitrification–DeComposition, CNMM-DNDC) to enable it to predict soil and water loss. The results indicated that the upgraded CNMM-DNDC (i) performed well in simulating the observed temporal dynamics and magnitudes of surface runoff, sediment and PN/PP yields in the lysimetric plot of the Jieliu catchment in Sichuan Province and (ii) successfully predicted the observed monthly dynamics and magnitudes of stream flow, sediment yield and PN yields at the catchment outlet, with significant univariate linear regressions and acceptable Nash–Sutcliffe indices higher than 0.74. The upgraded CNMM-DNDC demonstrated that a greater proportion of PN to total nitrogen (TN) during the period with large precipitation events and amounts than that during the drought period (16.2 %–26.6 % versus 2.3 %–12.4 %). The intensities of soil erosion and particulate nutrient yields in the Jieliu catchment were closely related to land use type in the following order: sloping cultivated upland (SU) > residential areas (RA) > forest land (FL). The scenario analysis demonstrated that high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios provided a greater risk of soil erosion than did low GHG emissions scenarios and that land use change (i.e., from SU to FL) could help to mitigate soil and water loss accelerated by climate change in the future. The upgraded model was demonstrated to have the ability of predicting ecosystem productivity, hydrologic nitrogen loads, emissions of GHGs and pollutant gases, soil erosion and particulate nutrient yields, which renders it a potential decision support tool for soil erosion and nonpoint source pollution control coordinated with increasing production and reducing GHG and pollutant gases emissions in a catchment.

Meteorological and Limnological Precursors to Cyanobacterial Blooms in Seneca and Owasco Lakes, New York, USA

Meteorological and water quality data were collected in offshore and nearshore settings over 4 years in the oligotrophic–mesotrophic Owasco and Seneca Lakes in order to assess cyanobacteria bloom (CyanoHABs) spatial and temporal variability and precursor meteorological and water quality conditions. CyanoHABs were detected from August through mid-October in both lakes. Blooms were temporally and spatially isolated, i.e., rarely concurrently detected at 3 (4.2%) or more of the 12 sites, and blooms (75.6%) were more frequently detected at only 1 of the 12 sites in the 10 min interval photologs. Both lakes lacked consistent meteorological and water quality precursor conditions. CyanoHABs were detected during the expected calm (<1 kph), sunny (600–900 W/m2), and warm water (>23 °C) episodes. However, more CyanoHABs were detected during overcast/shady (<250 W/m2) and windier (1 to 20 kph) and/or in cooler water (16 to 21 °C). More importantly, the majority of the sunny, calm, and/or warm water episodes did not experience a bloom. This suggests that nutrient availability was essential to trigger blooms in these two lakes, and we speculate that the nutrients originate from the decomposition of nearshore organic matter and runoff from the largest precipitation events.

Distinct Hydrologic Pathways Regulate Perennial Surface Water Dynamics in a Hyperarid Basin

AbstractIn water‐stressed hyperarid basins, questions mount over the impacts of anthropogenic groundwater extraction and climate‐driven perturbations on groundwater‐surface water interactions and the resilience of ecosystem‐critical surface water. Coupling groundwater with surface water observations from Sentinel‐2 data provides an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate surface water connectivity with local aquifers following intense precipitation events in arid basins. Surface water area and groundwater level data were analyzed for trends following precipitation, including peak lag time, post‐peak recession rates, and changes in hydraulic gradients. Results indicate variable connectivity following large precipitation events between surface water change and groundwater level fluctuations in the upgradient freshwater aquifer, whereas the downgradient brine‐to‐brackish area of the aquifer indicated virtually no connectivity with the aquifer. Comparison between precipitation and surface water response indicate distinct responses based on the physical relationship of the surface water body with the brine‐to‐brackish area of the aquifer. Lumped parameter modeling of surface water inundation also constrains the possible hydrologic dynamics of the post‐precipitation response. While modeled influx to surface water seems primarily controlled by watershed hydraulics rather than direct hydraulic connectivity of the aquifers, the relationship between surface water and adjacent groundwater levels coupled with surface water area indicates that local aquifers are primarily connected to the surface water bodies through discharge via subsurface infiltration. Modeling results imply that the existence of brine‐adjacent surface water in arid basins relies on upgradient discharge from freshwater aquifers. Our results further support that marginal surface water systems can serve as a critical recharge mechanism to local aquifers.

Determining seasonal recharge, storage changes, and specific yield using repeat microgravity and water-level measurements in the Mesilla Basin alluvial aquifer, New Mexico, 2016–2018

Increasing water demand and multi-year drought conditions within the Mesilla/Conejos-Médanos Basin near the New Mexico-Texas- Chihuahua border have resulted in diminished surface-water supplies and increased groundwater withdrawals. To better understand recharge to the shallow aquifer, the spatial and temporal groundwater storage changes, and the variability of specific yield (Sy) in the aquifer, seasonal groundwater elevation and repeat microgravity measurements were made during the irrigation release and non-release seasons of 2016, 2017, and 2018 at a network of locations near Las Cruces, New Mexico.The data collected during this investigation were able to capture seasonal change in groundwater elevations and storage from various sources of recharge at multiple sites in the shallow aquifer. Seasonal recharge in the study area was attributed to streamflow, the application and conveyance of irrigation water, and large or sustained precipitation events. However, increasing groundwater gradients in recent decades between piezometers close to the river and those more than a kilometer from the river suggests that recharge from river seepage has become localized at the seasonal scale. Overall, there was a net increase in storage of almost 8.4 cubic hectometers in the study reach between the start and end of the study, largely following the increased surface-water availability and above average precipitation in 2017. Specific yield, estimated by comparing the groundwater-level changes and storage changes at six sites in the study area, ranged from 0.14 (+/− 0.05) to 0.30 (+/− 0.06), which is slightly greater than previously reported estimates (0.10 to 0.25), but still within the error of the estimates. Most of the variability in the estimated storage change, that was not well-correlated with groundwater elevation change, is thought to be from soil moisture in the unsaturated zone.This investigation demonstrates the value of adding repeat microgravity measurements to conventional groundwater monitoring to better understand the sources and extent of recharge as well as the variability of Sy in the aquifer. Continued monitoring, under a variety of available surface water and meteorological conditions, could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the water budget and reduce the specific yield estimation uncertainty. Evaluating water-levels and storage conditions prior to, and following, local recharge events may help managers identify threshold conditions for aquifer storage depletions and recoveries.

Projecting changes in flood event runoff coefficients under climate change

Climate change is projected to impact on the magnitude, spatial location, and timing of large precipitation events, with evidence for this already present in the historical record. However, determining the impacts of these precipitation changes on floods is non-trivial as floods are a result of many compounding factors. For example, changes in the timing and spatial distribution of rainfalls influence soil moisture conditions prior to the flood-causing precipitation event, which in turn change the peak and volume of the resultant flood. Despite this, the impact of climate-changed precipitation on runoff and flood volumes has yet to be quantified historically or examined under different scenarios of climate change.It has previously been suggested that in Australia, the impact of increased precipitation on floods have been partially offset by decreases in soil moisture prior to storms. Here, we seek to quantify the change in flood-event runoff coefficients resulting from climate change across Australia, where it is hoped that such information can be used to help inform the projections of floods resulting from climate-change-induced precipitation changes. We use an event runoff coefficient to assess the flood runoff response to precipitation events containing the annual maximum three-day rainfall event. The assessment was applied to 467 unimpaired catchments in Australia ranging across arid, temperate, and tropical climates. Catchments in temperate climates largely show decreasing trends in event runoff coefficients while increasing trends were observed in tropical regions. Statistically significant trend magnitudes of up to 0.13 per decade were found.Runoff outputs from a semi-distributed landscape model were then used to assess projected runoff responses under different scenarios of future climates. The outputs of modelled runoff were first validated and shown to adequately capture the observed spatial and temporal trends in flood event runoff coefficients despite underestimating the trend magnitude. The projections showed that the median proportion of rainfall converted to runoff from large rainfall events will decrease into the future across over 80% of unimpaired catchments in Australia under climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future work will investigate how these reductions in flood volume are best represented by rainfall loss models used widely in operational flood forecasts and design applications.

Responses of grassland ecosystem carbon fluxes to precipitation and their environmental factors in the Badain Jaran Desert.

Studying the effects of precipitation on carbon exchange in grassland ecosystems is critical for revealing the mechanisms of the carbon cycle. In this study, the eddy covariance (EC) technique was used to monitor the carbon fluxes in a grassland ecosystem in the Badain Jaran Desert (BJD) during the growing season from 2018 to 2020. The responses of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and gross primary productivity (GPP) to precipitation were analysed, as well as the effects of environmental factors on carbon fluxes at half-hour and daily scales. The results showed that (1) during the growing seasons in 2019 and 2020, the grassland ecosystem in a lake basin in the BJD was a net CO2 sink, and the cumulative NEE was - 91.9 and - 79.2g C m-2, respectively. The greater the total precipitation in the growing season, the stronger the carbon sequestration capacity of a grassland ecosystem. (2) The precipitation intensity, frequency, and timing significantly affected the carbon fluxes in the ecosystem. Isolated minor precipitation events did not trigger obvious NEE, GPP, and Reco pulses. However, large precipitation events or continuous minor precipitation events over several days caused delayed high assimilation; in addition, the greater the precipitation intensity, the greater the carbon flux pulse and carbon assimilation. The timing and frequency of precipitation events had more important effects on carbon exchange than total precipitation. Droughts create a shift in grasslands, causing them to move from being a carbon sink to a carbon source. (3) Correlation analysis showed that NEE was significantly negatively correlated with photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). On the half-hour scale, Reco and GPP were significantly positively correlated with soil temperature at 5 cm deep (Ts5) and PAR, respectively. However, they were strongly correlated with air temperature (Ta), soil surface temperature (Ts) and (Ts5)on the daily scale. The correlations between daily NEE, Reco, GPP, and precipitation varied across years and seasons. Due to warming and humidification in northwest China, precipitation events will have a greater impact on the carbon sequestration capacity of the BJD. The results are vital for predicting the possible effects of climate change on the carbon cycle.

Objective Methods for Thinning the Frequency of Reforecasts while Meeting Postprocessing and Model Validation Needs

Abstract This paper utilizes statistical and statistical–dynamical methodologies to select, from the full observational record, a minimal subset of dates that would provide representative sampling of local precipitation distributions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). The CONUS region is characterized by a great diversity of precipitation-producing systems, mechanisms, and large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can provide favorable environment for local precipitation extremes. This diversity is unlikely to be adequately captured in methodologies that rely on grossly reducing the dimensionality of the data—by representing it in terms of a few patterns evolving in time—and thus requires data thinning techniques based on high-dimensional dynamical or statistical data modeling. We have built a novel high-dimensional empirical model of temperature and precipitation capable of producing statistically accurate surrogate realizations of the observed 1979–99 (training period) evolution of these fields. This model also provides skillful hindcasts of precipitation over the 2000–20 (validation) period. We devised a subsampling strategy based on the relative entropy of the empirical model’s precipitation (ensemble) forecasts over CONUS and demonstrated that it generates a set of dates that captures a majority of high-impact precipitation events, while substantially reducing a heavy-precipitation bias inherent in an alternative methodology based on the direct identification of large precipitation events in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), version 12 reforecasts. The impacts of data thinning on the accuracy of precipitation statistical postprocessing, as well as on the calibration and validation of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) reforecasts are yet to be established. Significance Statement High-impact weather events are usually associated with extreme precipitation, which is notoriously difficult to predict even using highly resolved state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models based on first physical principles. The same is true for statistical models that use past data to anticipate the future behavior likely to stem from an observed initial state. Here we use both types of models to identify the occurrences of the states, over the historical climate record, which are likely to lead to extreme precipitation events. We show that the overall statistics of precipitation over the contiguous United States is encapsulated in a greatly reduced set of such states, which could substantially alleviate the computational burden associated with testing of hydrological forecast models used for decision support.

Soil Moisture Variations in Response to Precipitation Across Different Vegetation Types on the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

An understanding of soil moisture conditions is crucial for hydrological modeling and hydrological processes. However, few studies have compared the differences between the dynamics of soil moisture content and soil moisture response to precipitation infiltration under different types of vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). In this study, a soil moisture sensor was used for continuous volumetric soil moisture measurements during 2015 and 2016, with the aim of exploring variations in soil moisture and its response to precipitation infiltration across two vegetation types (alpine meadow and alpine shrub). Our results showed that temporal variations in soil moisture at the surface (0–20 cm) and middle soil layers (40–60 cm) were consistent with precipitation patterns for both vegetation types. However, there was a clear lag in the soil moisture response to precipitation for the deep soil layers (80–100 cm). Soil moisture content was found to be significantly positively related to precipitation and negatively related to air temperature. Aboveground biomass was significantly negatively associated with the surface soil moisture content (0–20 cm) during the growing season. Statistically significant differences were observed between the soil water content of the surface, middle, and deep soil layers for the two vegetation types (p < 0.05). Soil moisture (19.81%) in the surface soil layer was significantly lower than that in the deep soil layer (24.75%) for alpine shrubs, and the opposite trend was observed for alpine meadows. The maximum infiltration depth of alpine shrubs was greater than that of alpine meadows under extremely high-precipitation events, which indicates that alpine shrubs might be less susceptible to surface runoff under extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, low precipitation amounts did not affect precipitation infiltration for either vegetation type, whereas the infiltration depth increased with precipitation for both vegetation types. Our results suggest that a series of small precipitation events may not have the same effect on soil moisture as a single large precipitation event that produces the equivalent total rainfall.

Satellite observed vegetation dynamics and drivers in the Namib sand sea over the recent 20 years

AbstractMonitoring dryland vegetation trends and examining the drivers are of great importance to understand the dryland vegetation response to future climate changes. Recent findings through satellite data indicate that vegetation greenness has increased in several regions worldwide. These greening patterns are driven by human activities or combined human activities and environmental factors. However, the analyses of greenness trend for regions without direct human activities and shrub expansion in drylands are still lacking. To this end, this study investigates the vegetation trend across the Namib sand sea over March 2000 to December 2018 using monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and examines several potential drivers including precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. For the NDVI time series across the whole study region, a significant greening trend was found over March 2000 to September 2012 based on Mann–Kendall test but not over the whole study period. Structural equation modelling results indicated that precipitation and CO2 were the dominant drivers of greening. Temperature showed negative effects on vegetation greenness, indicating warming would reduce plant growth in the study region. Spatially, 75% of the region showed statistically significant greening over March 2000 to September 2012 and 39.30% for March 2000 to December 2018. The different vegetation trend results between the entire region and the pixel scale implied that location‐specific greening could be masked by an overall trend. Our study suggested that precipitation (especially the large episodic precipitation events) and CO2 are dominant drivers of the observed greening in the Namib. Our findings fill an important knowledge gap of vegetation dynamics in regions without direct human activities.