Large Multipliers Research Articles

Structural transformation without industrialization? Evidence from Tanzanian consumers

AbstractExport‐oriented industrialization was central to many Asian countries' structural transformation processes, but many African countries are bypassing industrialization, and the prospects for competing in global manufacturing markets are poor. Alternative structural transformation pathways all rely on domestic markets, and thus understanding their trajectories requires uncovering consumer preferences. Using detailed household expenditures data from a nationally representative panel survey in Tanzania, I estimate a flexible, stylized consumer demand system. I recover estimates of expenditure elasticities of demand for goods, services, and food in the aggregate, along with price elasticities of demand, identified using within‐household variation in prices and expenditures. I find that, across the expenditures distribution and in both rural and urban areas, consumer preferences are service facing. In particular, I show that (1) consumers sharply increase spending on services relative to goods and food as incomes increase; (2) demand for services in the aggregate is somewhat sensitive to changes in service prices; and (3) food, goods, and services are substitutes for each other. On one hand, a high propensity to consume the types of services that generate large local economic growth multipliers is consistent with driving growth in service sector employment. However, sustained growth in the long run may be limited because these services are low productivity and nontradable, and domestic markets are size constrained.

Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers

Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers

The Influence of Net Profit Margin, Return on Asset, Current Ratio, Price Earning Ratio, Solvency Ratio on Market Price

This study aims to analyze the influence of Profit Margin, Return on Assets, Current Ratio, Solvency Ratio on Market Price. Information about company share prices is related to these 5 variables. The data used in this research is the Consumer Good Industry Company (CGIC) which has complete data related to these variables so that the sample obtained is 13 companies in 2019-2022. The data analysis technique used in this research is the selection of a panel data regression model with the Chow test, Hausman test, large range multiplier (LM) test, and parameter significance test. The test results can be concluded that Net Profit Margin (NPM) has a significant effect on Market Price (MP) while Return on Assets (ROA), Current Ratio (CR), Price Earning Ratio (PER), Solvency Ratio (SR) do not have a significant effect on Market Price (MP).

HV-YOLOv8 by HDPconv: Better lightweight detectors for small object detection

Accurately identifying and localising small objects within images or videos is a critical challenge in the field of computer vision. It is mostly applied in scenarios that require high real-time performance, such as pedestrian detection and autonomous driving scenarios. These tiny targets generally include small objects at long distances, or objects appearing in low-resolution images, due to which it becomes exceptionally difficult to extract effective feature information. Since YOLOv8 with its large downsampling multiplier leads to deeper feature maps that make it difficult to detect tiny objects, we find that the use of residual structures in the convolution module can enhance the accuracy of small object detection. However, this undoubtedly increases the computational cost, so we lightened the convolution module to make it more suitable for practical applications and named it Halved Deep Pointwise Convolution (HDPConv). A cross-level partial module Variety of View Group Shuffle Cross Stage Partial Network (VOV-GSCSP) is also utilised, using a rational architecture as well as multi-scale information fusion, to ensure that the overall model is lightweight while obtaining rich gradient flows. On this basis, we propose a new network lightweight model HV-YOLOv8. In multiple sets of comparative experiments on two datasets (containing several state-of-the-art solutions as well as classical ones), we demonstrate the superiority of HV-YOLOv8, in particular, the accuracy is improved by 1.4% compared to YOLOv8, while the number of parameters and the amount of computation are drastically reduced.

Finding the longest delay paths for the array-form multipliers using a genetic algorithm

Traditional digital multipliers are often designed in array forms or other variants. Timing of array-form multipliers can be analyzed by static timing analysis (STA), but the obtained timing result is conservative and pessimistic. Although statistical static timing analysis (SSTA) can partly solve the pessimism, it still does not generate test patterns for those near-to-longest delay paths. Finding near-to-longest delay paths can be helpful to designing error tolerant circuits, with which aggressive timing (with timing violation) can be exploited. In such design scenarios one should find test vectors to activate those near-to-longest delay paths in order to further run SPICE-precision diagnose on those potential timing violating critical paths. Test vector generation for such a testing problem is essentially an exhaustive enumeration problem when dealing with different forms of array multipliers. However, large size multipliers would result in an extremely large enumeration space for finding the longest delay path (LDP) test vectors. Currently there is no deterministic method that can guarantee to find test vectors for exact LDPs of a large size multiplier. Only very few research papers have addressed this problem, proposals are limited to heuristic methods without guarantee of finding the LDPs with the testing vectors. This paper investigates the potential of a genetic algorithm (GA) for searching the extensive test pattern space. By a fine design of GA, experimental running shows that a combination of well tuned evolutionary operators does empower the possibility of finding the LDPs for a set of moderate size carry-save adders (CSA) multipliers with the wordlength (WL) up to 25 bits on a plain laptop computer. Statistical properties of the proposed GA are examined.

Sustainable tourism competitiveness analysis for regional economic enhancement in West Java

Tourism is an economic sector that has a large multiplier effect on other economic activities, so that for certain areas that have tourism economic potential, it is very important to pay attention to and increase the competitiveness of tourism as a source of regional economic growth. This research aims to analyze the competitiveness of tourism in districts/cities in West Java. This research uses explanatory analysis and competitiveness mapping methods to identify superior tourism indicators in districts/cities in West Java. The indicators used in this research include the tourism impact index, human resources index, social development index, price competitiveness index and openness indicator. The results of the analysis found that there are only 4 regions that have superior tourism competitiveness in all indicators, namely Cirebon Regency, Indramayu Regency, Sukabumi City and Bekasi City. Based on the results of the analysis, this research recommends that the West Java Government and Regency/City Governments, apart from maintaining the attractiveness of tourism, also need to pay attention to competitiveness aspects so that it is hoped that tourism development in West Java can pay attention to sustainability aspects

High-performance montgomery modular multiplier with NTT and negative wrapped convolution

Modular multiplication plays a crucial role in modern cryptography. Montgomery modular multiplication(MMM), one of the most classic and practical modular multiplication algorithms, has been widely used in cryptographic algorithms such as RSA, Diffie–Hellman algorithm, and Elliptic Curve Cryptography. In this paper, we incorporate negative wrapped convolution (NWC) into the FFT-based Montgomery modular multiplication to avoid the issue of zero-padding and use carry-save arithmetics for parallel computation. By utilizing coefficient pairs (pos_part and neg_part), we reconstruct the final result and eliminate the restrictions imposed by nega-cyclic parts. Moreover, Karatsuba-like algorithm is introduced for building fine-grained large integer multipliers. We have modified the parameter specifications for our design to meet requirements from diverse application scenarios. We implement the design on Xilinx Virtex-7 FPGA under different conditions and compare the results with the state-of-the-art MMM designs. The comparisons confirm that our design has the following characteristics: low latency for process, competitive area-latency-product(ALP), efficient DSP usage, and constant delay, which enhances security against timing attacks.

Linkage, sectoral productivity, and employment spread

This study demonstrates how differences in the prefectural input–output (IO) multiplier and sectoral total factor productivity (TFP) translate into aggregate income differences across prefectures within a country. Furthermore, this study investigates the job creation generated from the IO multiplier and TFP relationship and considers expenditure in the high-income group.Our results show that aggregate multipliers substantially amplify average sectoral TFP by propagating through the IO network. However, as log TFP levels and multipliers are negatively correlated, sectors with high multipliers have below-average productivity levels, which reduces income per worker because key inputs to downstream sectors are expensive. The overall effect of the IO structure is dampened relative to the aggregate multiplier effect. For example, the commerce sector has large multipliers in many prefectures and is thus amplified through the IO network, but their TFPs are lower and do not significantly contribute to the increase in income. The TFPs of the information and communication equipment sector in certain prefectures are higher than those in Tokyo, but the benefits are not amplified well within the prefecture because their multipliers are low.Furthermore, sectors with high productivity generate fewer jobs than other sectors do. The sectors with a large influence on job creation in other sectors are not amplified well through the IO network because of the small multiplier. From the expenditure viewpoint, the high-income group increases their education consumption exponentially, but the multiplier is low and not widespread within the prefecture. The construction sector has a significant influence on job creation in other sectors. However, their economic activities do not spread widely within a prefecture, and the high-income group does not increase housing consumption in proportion to their income. Residents in prefectures with high multipliers tend to spend more money outside their residential prefectures, such as online shopping. Thus, expenditure outside residential prefectures reduces the effect of the multiplier that amplifies the average sectoral TFP and the difference in income across prefectures.This study contributes to the existing literature by providing an explicit understanding of these relationships. Our findings make people realize that promoting the industry alone is not enough to increase income and generate highly productive jobs. A spillover perspective is required.

The macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in New Zealand

ABSTRACT This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in New Zealand. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, I find small output multipliers for government consumption but large multipliers for government investment. Importantly, the real exchange rate appreciates after positive government spending shocks, consistent with classic theory. Private consumption and private investment decrease after government consumption shocks, but increase after government investment shocks. I compare my results to the previous studies and show that selecting the appropriate series for government investment is important for estimating its effect.

Expectations Formation, Sticky Prices, and the ZLB

AbstractAt the zero lower bound (ZLB), expectations about the future path of monetary or fiscal policy are crucial. We model expectations formation under level‐ thinking, a form of bounded rationality formalized by García‐Schmidt and Woodford (2019) and Farhi and Werning (2019), consistent with experimental evidence. This process does not lead to a number of puzzling features from rational expectations models, such as the reversal puzzle, or implausible large fiscal multipliers. Optimal monetary policy at the ZLB under level‐ thinking prescribes keeping the nominal rate lower for longer, but short‐run macro‐economic stabilization is less powerful compared to rational expectations.

Stability analysis of nonstationary mechanical systems with time delay via averaging method

A linear mechanical system with constant matrix of dissipative forces and continuous and bounded matrices of positional forces is studied. It is assumed that there are a large positive multiplier at the vector of dissipative forces and a constant delay in positional forces. The case is considered where the associated delay-free averaged system is asymptotically stable. With the aid of the Lyapunov direct method and the averaging method, conditions are derived under which neither delay nor timevarying perturbations with zero mean values disturb the asymptotic stability. The developed approach is used in the problem of monoaxial stabilization of a rigid body.

Assessing the impact of COVID‐19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis

AbstractThis study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID‐19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID‐19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program that reached 14.8 million poor households. The study's models show that the largest multipliers from Ehsaas program finance were in agriculture, as a 1 Rupee shock adds 0.225 Rupee income to households. About 30% of that gain was estimated to go to poor farm families. In contrast, our models find that construction and trade growth added three times as much income to poor nonfarm and urban households as to farm households. However, those sectors added only one third as much total income as agriculture. From the structural path analysis, the importance of capital assets in generating income was seen, as was the possibility of greater poverty reduction from sectors with proportionally fewer intermediate inputs and more value added.

Low-Rank Gradient Descent for Memory-Efficient Training of Deep In-Memory Arrays

The movement of large quantities of data during the training of a deep neural network presents immense challenges for machine learning workloads, especially those based on future functional memories deployed to store network models. As the size of network models begins to vastly outstrip traditional silicon computing resources, functional memories based on flash, resistive switches, magnetic tunnel junctions, and other technologies can store these new ultra-large models. However, new approaches are then needed to minimize hardware overhead, especially on the movement and calculation of gradient information that cannot be efficiently contained in these new memory resources. To do this, we introduce streaming batch principal component analysis (SBPCA) as an update algorithm. Streaming batch principal component analysis uses stochastic power iterations to generate a stochastic rank- k approximation of the network gradient. We demonstrate that the low-rank updates produced by streaming batch principal component analysis can effectively train convolutional neural networks on a variety of common datasets, with performance comparable to standard mini-batch gradient descent. Our approximation is made in an expanded vector form that can efficiently be applied to the rows and columns of crossbars for array-level updates. These results promise improvements in the design of application-specific integrated circuits based around large vector-matrix multiplier memories.

Magnetic shielding for large photoelectron multipliers for the OSIRIS facility of the JUNO detector

We present technical design and characteristics of the magnetic shield developed for 20" PMTs of the low-background OSIRIS facility. A ribbon of amorphous alloy with extreme magnetic permeability was used in its design, providing excellent efficiency in screening the Earth's magnetic field with a relatively small amount of material. The mass of materials is crucial to construction of low-background facilities because of radioactive backgrounds. Using amorphous materials is cost-efficient compared to other methods for screening the Earth's magnetic field.

Private sector debt overhang and government spending multipliers: Not all debts are alike

This study empirically examines whether government spending multipliers vary depending on the level of debt in the private sector by estimating an interacted panel vector autoregressive model (IPVAR) with unbalanced panel data from 29 OECD countries. Results reveal that (i) government spending multipliers become larger in private debt overhang; (ii) and not all debts are alike: empirical evidence on the larger multipliers in household debt overhang are mixed, while the larger multipliers in firm debt overhang are clear; (iii) in firm debt overhang, positive government spending strongly crowds in both private consumption and investment compared comparing with low firm debt periods, and the multipliers are larger than one; and (iv) in household debt overhang, those crowding-in effects, particularly the effects on private consumption, are not as strong. I investigate various private debt-dependent transmission channels of government spending, including the labor and financial markets. Differences in the behavior of the labor market and investment decision across firm debt overhang and household debt overhang may be important for understanding the empirical results.

Peran Wakaf Tunai Saat Pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to generate a sense of optimism in the community in general and the government in particular in overcoming the economic recession that is hitting Indonesia. This countermeasures by looking at the potential of waqf in Indonesia, especially cash waqf as a role model. This study uses a descriptive qualitative approach. The results show that the cash waqf instrument has enormous benefits during a pandemic like this, both in the economic sector and in the non-economic sector. In the non-economic sector, investment returns from cash waqf can be used to provide direct cash assistance to the community to increase the purchasing power of vulnerable people affected by Covid-19. In the economic sector, cash waqf profit sharing can also be used to provide working capital to MSMEs, to finance infrastructure development and to finance other productive economic businesses, especially for workers who are currently being laid off a lot. In both the economic and non-economic sectors, cash waqf revenue sharing can produce a very large multiplier effect and is beneficial for investors in increasing production, and for the government in increasing government revenue from the tax sector.

Fiscal multipliers: A heterogenous‐agent perspective

We use an analytically tractable heterogeneous‐agent (HANK) version of the standard New Keynesian model to show how the size of fiscal multipliers depends on (i) the distribution of factor incomes, and (ii) the source of nominal rigidities. With sticky prices but flexible wages, the standard representative‐agent (RANK) model predicts large multipliers because profits fall after a fiscal stimulus and the resulting negative income effect makes the representative worker work harder. Our HANK model, where workers do not own stock, and thus do not receive profit income, predicts smaller fiscal multipliers. In fact, they are smaller with sticky prices than with flexible prices. When wages are the source of nominal rigidity, in contrast, fiscal multipliers are close to one, independently of income heterogeneity and price stickiness.

Entrepreneurship Training and Application of Break Even Point Analysis in the Framework of Generating an Entrepreneurial Spirit and Exploring New Ideas in Wearnes Malang Students

Wearnes is an out-of-school educational institution that provides computer, business and sales marketing materials with the aim of providing students with the skills to become entrepreneurs. However, the development and discovery of new ideas for entrepreneurship in educational institutions is still not optimal because the number of meetings on sales marketing material is relatively short, resulting in a lack of implementation of business/business concepts into business practices. For this reason, it is necessary to provide training to foster enthusiasm, new ideas and entrepreneurial creativity. This training also provides a way of calculating break even point analysis of the business plan that will be implemented, especially how to determine the selling price of its business products. The importance of providing this training is to contribute to students who are the younger generation with great potential to start new businesses and develop them in the future so that they have a large multiplier effect in creating new jobs.

FPGA Implementation of Fast Binary Multiplication Based on Customized Basic Cells

Multiplication is considered one of the most time-consuming and a key operation in wide variety of embedded applications. Speeding up this operation has a significant impact on the overall performance of these applications. A vast number of multiplication approaches are found in the literature where the goal is always to achieve a higher performance. One of these approaches relies on using smaller multiplier blocks which are built based on direct Boolean algebra equations to build large multipliers. In this work, we present a methodology for designing binary multipliers where different sizes customized partial products generation (CPPG) cells are designed and used as smaller building blocks. The sizes of the designed CPPG cells are 2×2, 3×3, 4×4, 5×5, and 6×6. We use these cells to build 8×8, 16×16, 32×32, 64×64, and 128×128 binary multipliers. All of the CPPG cells and the binary multipliers are described using the VHDL language, tested, and implemented using XILINX ISE 14.6 tools targeting different FPGA families. The implementation results show that the best performance is achieved when cell 3×3 is used and Virtex-7 FPGA is targeted. The binary multipliers that are designed using the proposed CPPG cells achieve better performance when compared with the binary multipliers presented in the literature. As an application that utilizes the proposed multiplier, a Multiply-Accumulate (MAC) unit is designed and implemented in Spartan-3E. The implementation results of the MAC unit demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed multiplier.

State dependence of fiscal multipliers: the source of fluctuations matters

We develop a general theory of state-dependent fiscal multipliers in a framework featuring two empirically relevant frictions: idle capacity and unsatisfied demand. Our key novel finding is that the source of fluctuations determines the cyclicality of multipliers. Policies that stimulate demand, such as government spending, have multipliers that are large in demand-driven recessions, but small and possibly negative in supply-driven downturns. Conversely, policies that boost supply, such as cuts in payroll taxes, are ineffective in demand-driven recessions, but powerful if the downturn is supply-driven. Austerity, implemented by a reduction in government consumption, can be the policy with the largest multiplier in supply-side recessions and demand-driven booms, provided elasticities of labor demand and supply are sufficiently low. We obtain model-free empirical support for our predictions by developing a novel econometric specification that allows to estimate spending and tax multipliers in recessions and expansions, conditional on those being either demand- or supply-driven.