Large Magnitude Seismic Events Research Articles

Going with the flow: Experimental simulation of sediment transport from a foraminifera perspective

AbstractTransport of continental shelf sediments to the deep ocean can be studied from displaced symbiont‐bearing larger benthic foraminifera found in turbidity current deposits. The larger benthic foraminifera habitat depth, physical characteristics and preservation serve as indicators for understanding sediment transport dynamics near the seabed and in the water column. Here, an experiment was designed to explore sediment transport in a closed flume system using simulated high current velocities. Shelf sediments from the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba, dominated by Amphistegina papillosa and Operculina ammonoides, were subjected to 60 cm s−1 and 80 cm s−1 current velocities while collected in a 10 cm vertical sediment trap. Larger benthic foraminifera abundance, shell physical properties and preservation were analyzed and compared with the original bulk sediments. The experiment results showed that at 80 cm s−1 velocity, larger benthic foraminifera shells of all sizes and preservations are efficiently resuspended and transported in large quantities throughout the water column, as opposed to their transport as bedload by the lower velocity current. Larger benthic foraminifera shape also has a role in the transport distances and accumulation depths. Operculina ammonoides shells were found to be more portable, compared to Amphistegina papillosa, due to their flatter discoid shape. The results suggest that a threshold velocity of ca 80 cm s−1 was needed to generate the thick coarse deposits found in the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba slope sedimentary record, which were previously suggested to be triggered by large magnitude seismic events. Lower velocities probably winnowed minor amounts of larger benthic foraminifera shells (with little or no coarser sediments) that were deposited as a thin sand layer may point to lower magnitude seismic triggers. In conclusion, larger benthic foraminifera shells are transported and deposited in accordance with their hydrodynamic properties, resulting in assemblage differentiation along the transport pathway. This study shows that the fossil biogenic composition in slope sediments includes valuable information on current velocities, transport dynamics and possible triggers in the geological record.

Effects of the distribution and evolution of the coefficient of friction along a fault on the assessment of the seismic activity associated with a hypothetical industrial-scale geologic CO2 sequestration operation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in geological formations is considered as a promising option that could limit CO2 emissions from human activities into the atmosphere. However, there is a risk that pressure buildup inside the storage formation can induce slip along preexisting faults and create seismic event felt by the population. To prevent this to happen a geomechanical fault stability analysis should be performed, considering uncertainties of input parameters. In this paper, we investigate how the distribution of the coefficient of friction and the applied frictional law could influence the assessment of fault stability and the characteristics of potential injection-induced seismic events. Our modelling study is based on a hypothetical industrial-scale carbon sequestration project located in the Southern San Joaquin Basin in California, USA, where the stability on a major (25km long) fault that bounds the sequestration site is assessed during 50 years of CO2 injection. We conduct nine simulations in which the distributions of the coefficients of static and dynamic friction are changed to simulate a hardening and softening phase before and during rupture. Our main findings are: (i) variations in friction along the fault have an important effect on the predicted seismic activity, with maximum magnitude ranging from 1.88 to 5.88 and number of seismic events ranging from 338 to 3272; (ii) the extreme values of the coefficient of friction (lowest and highest) present along the rupture area control how much stress is accumulated before rupture; and (iii) an argillaceous caprock can prevent the development of large magnitude seismic events but favor the occurrence of a large number of smaller events.

Evaluation of the seismic hazard for 20 cities in Romania using Monte Carlo based simulations

This work focuses on the evaluation of the seismic hazard for Romania using earthquake catalogues generated by a Monte Carlo approach. The seismicity of Romania can be attributed to the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source and to 13 other crustal seismic sources. The recurrence times of large magnitude seismic events (both crustal and subcrustal), as well as the moment release rates are computed using simulated earthquake catalogues. The results show that the largest contribution to the overall moment release for the crustal seismic sources is from the seismic regions in Bulgaria, while the seismic regions in Romania contribute less than 5% of the overall moment release. In addition, the computations show that the moment release rate for the Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is about ten times larger than that of all the crustal seismic sources. Finally, the Monte Carlo approach is used to evaluate the seismic hazard for 20 cities in Romania with populations larger than 100,000 inhabitants. The results show some differences between the seismic hazard values obtained through Monte-Carlo simulation and those in the Romanian seismic design code P100-1/2013, notably for cities situated in the western part of Romania that are influenced by local crustal seismic sources.

Structural inheritance controlling active crustal deformation in the Val d'Agri area (southern Apennines, Italy): new insights from finite element modelling

The availability of a large amount of surface geological data and subsurface information gathered by the oil industry, together with seismic and geodetic data, allowed us to define and analyse the active structures in the Val d'Agri area of the southern Apennines. Taking into account that the study of interseismic deformation can be significant to identify locked fault areas that can potentially slip, in this study we present 2D elastoplastic finite-element models to reproduce interseismic characteristics of the study area. This hosts the largest Europe's onshore oil field and is characterised by an active extensional tectonic regime, as inferred from earthquake focal mechanisms and fault slip data from late Quaternary structures. Based on high-quality seismic profiles tied with deep well logs, we constructed a detailed geological section across the study area. Outcropping units are dissected by numerous brittle structures that formed at various stages during the tectonic evolutionof the Apennines, while the deep ones are dominated by deeply rooted major faults. The rheological behaviour has been constrained by the reconstruction of the thermal structure of the fold and thrustbelt, using available information from the foreland Apulian Platform and from temperature data from a series of wells. Starting from the geological model, we reproduced interseismic deformation by means of finite-element numerical modelling, varying boundary conditions and unlocking different fault segments. Our numerical models provide new insights into the controversial and widely debated active tectonic setting of the Val d'Agri area, confirming the major role played by structural inheritance and reactivation processes. In fact, recent low-magnitude seismicity tends to illuminate fault segments consisting of pre-existing reverse faults reactivated as normal faults in the present-day stress field.These long-lived, mature fault systems occurring in the buried Apulian Platform carbonates (and underlying basement) represent major brittle structures that cumulated displacements of up to a few kilometres over geologic time. As a result of their reactivation within the late Quaternaryextensional stress field, these long-lived crustal structures are capable of nucleating also moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes. The decoupling between deep and shallow structural levels, and the different inherited structures affecting them, explain the apparent contrast between the subdued surface expression of active fault systems and the known occurrence of large magnitude seismic events in the study area, thus reconciling apparently contrasting geological and geophysical constraints.

Coal bursts in the deep longwall mines of the United States

Coal bursts involve the sudden, violent ejection of coal or rock into the mine workings. They are a particular hazard because they typically occur without warning. During the past 2 years three US coal miners were killed in two coal bursts, following a 6-year period during which there were zero burst fatalities. This paper puts the US experience in the context of worldwide research into coal bursts. It focuses on two major longwall mining coalfields which have struggled with bursts for decades. The Utah experience displays many of the “classic” burst characteristics, including deep cover, strong roof and floor rock, and a direct association between bursts and mining activity. In Colorado, the longwalls of the North Fork Valley (NFV) also work at great depth, but their roof and floor strengths are moderate, and most bursts have occurred during entry development or in headgates, bleeders, or other outby locations. The NFV bursts also are more likely to be associated with geologic structures and large magnitude seismic events. The paper provides a detailed case history to illustrate the experience in each of these coalfields. The paper closes with a brief discussion of how US longwalls have managed the burst risk.

The significance of hydrothermal alteration zones for the mechanical behavior of a geothermal reservoir

The occurrence of hydrothermally altered zones is a commonly observed phenomenon in brittle rock. The dissolution and transformation of primary minerals and the precipitation of secondary minerals affect rocks in terms of mechanics, stress conditions, and induced seismicity. The present study investigates commonly observed phenomena of hydrothermal alteration and observations at the geothermal site of Soultz-sous-Forêts, which are related to the occurrence of hydrothermal alteration. Geomechanical observations at Soultz are interpreted on the basis of synthetic clay content logs, which are created from borehole logging data, and which identify clay in hydrothermally altered zones. It is shown that hydrothermal alteration results in a reduction of the frictional strength of the reservoir rock. Weak zones can act as stress-decoupling horizons, which locally perturb the stress field and affect the evolution of the microseismic cloud. For the first time, it is shown on a reservoir scale that large magnitude seismic events are restricted to unaltered granites, whereas in clay zones, only small magnitudes are observed. It is demonstrated that clay-rich zones foster the occurrence of aseismic movements on fractures. Secondary mineral precipitation during hydrothermal alteration has a great effect on the geomechanical properties of a geothermal reservoir. The identification of such zones is a first step towards understanding the relation between alteration and mechanical processes inside a reservoir and can help in reducing induced seismicity during hydraulic stimulation of a reservoir.

A Note on Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Intertropical Front in Sahel, Africa

The advance and retreat of the Sahara Desert are repetitive in decadal time scale. This climate variability, unique in the world, results from the irregular motion of the Intertropical Front (ITF), a discontinuity originated from the convergence of two air masses over the African continent. It results from the convergence of a dry air mass flowing off the North African anticyclone and a southwestern warm and humid air mass that originates off the South Atlantic anticyclone. As it crosses the equator, this air stream is shifted rightwards, becoming southwesterly winds and transporting moisture into the continent. The equatorial thermal low associated with ITF over the continent is deeper and more intense than the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) one and its thermodynamic properties differ remarkably, moisture concentration in particular. The ITF annual latitudinal displacement is larger than that of the Atlantic ITCZ, reaching 20?N commonly during the North Hemisphere summer. In this manuscript one discuss about the possibility that Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is not a regular physical oscillation and its phases duration may not be predictable and be dependent of large magnitude seismic events, which are rare and random. An important point, however, is that the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, once established and recognized, may remain for a relative long (decades) period. Its SST pattern, due to its large area extension, modulates the global climate forcing the large scale general circulation features, ENSO in particular, to produce distinct regional impacts, depending on the signal and strength of the SST anomalies. This happened with the ITF in the Sahel and may possibly have occurred with other large scale atmospheric structures, such as the Asian Monsoon, convergence zones and subtropical anticyclones centers positioning.

Applicability of P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low magnitude seismic events

Applicability of regional P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low-magnitude seismic events was tested and proved using earthquakes and explosions in Central Asia. Results obtained show that regional P/S amplitude ratios which may discriminate medium or large magnitude events well, are also applicable to low magnitude events. Their performances for low magnitude events are almost as good as that for medium or large events. Statistical comparisons based on 25 P/S discriminate from the four seismic stations WMQ, BLK, MUL and MAK showed that the average misclassification rate for low-magnitude seismic events averagely was only 2 percent higher than that for medium and large magnitude seismic events.