AbstractManaged aquifer recharge (MAR) can increase groundwater supply and, under some conditions, improve groundwater quality simultaneously. However, the conditions under which water quality improvements can be achieved during infiltration for MAR have not been systematically examined in a spatially explicit manner. This work aims to address that gap by synthesizing observations from laboratory tests, field experiments and operational facilities at four MAR sites within the Pajaro Valley, California, USA to develop a predictive model of nitrate removal during infiltration. We compare two machine learning approaches; random forest and boosted regression trees, to multiple linear regression. The preferred model uses boosted regression trees, with four predictor variables (initial nitrate concentration of infiltrating water, residence time in the soil, soil organic carbon content, and soil percent clay). We apply this model to simulate the spatial distribution of potential nitrate removal (NRp) across a heterogeneous and mixed‐use landscape, finding that >87% of the region has the potential to remove nitrate during infiltration. To link potential nitrate removal capacity to available water for MAR, we combine a map of NRp with independently simulated hillslope runoff, and find that potential load reduction is highest in urban areas (median = 18.8 kg‐N/yr) where large runoff volumes are collocated with soils having high nutrient cycling capacity compared to forested and agricultural areas (median = 1.6 and 3.5 kg‐N/yr, respectively). We analyse potential load reduction across dry, normal, and wet precipitation scenarios, which shows that urban areas have the potential to yield large load reductions (median = 11.3 kg‐N/yr) even under relatively dry conditions. However, much of the generation of elevated nitrate in runoff is associated with agricultural activity. These results suggest that the urban–agricultural interface represents a crucial link between hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles where water supply and quality goals may be met simultaneously. The technical approach used in this study is highly flexible and can help guide decisions in resource management and identify promising MAR sites. More broadly, this approach also elucidates heterogeneity in biogeochemical cycling across complex landscapes.
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